← Josh Pate's College Football Show
Josh Pate's College Football Show
CFP Rankings Reaction + Rivalry Week Predictions & Coaching Search Intel
01:30:28
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This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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Hey Bowen, it's gift season. Ugh.
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Stressing me out. Why are the people I love so hard to shop for?
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Probably because they only make boring gift guides that are totally uninspired. Except for the guide we made in.
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Partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts meet incredible value.
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It's giving gifts with categories like Best Gifts for the mom whose idea of sensible walking shoe is a stiletto or.
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Best Gifts for me that were so.
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Thoughtful I really shouldn't have.
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Check out the guide on marshalls.com and.
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Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
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So you're telling me that the AI that's meant to make everyone's job easier to manage just adds more to manage? On top of the thousands of apps the IT department already manages? Funny how that works. Any business can add AI. IBM helps you scale and manage AI to change how you do business. Let's create Smile to Business IBM.
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Stay cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops because honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is going to give you two free select tools from dewalt, Craftsman or Cobalt when you buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus rewards members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in. Shop New December deal drops on lowe's.com every week this month. Fresh deals, cozy vibes. 0eff.
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I told myself I wouldn't do it. I told myself when we expanded from four to 12 in the playoff, I wasn't gonna get worked up. I lied. I like to fancy myself a truthful person, a truth teller out here. Except when it comes to me talking to myself. I lied. Unfortunately, or probably fortunately for you guys, it makes for a very entertaining show. We're jam packed. We're high atop a thankful downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Tuesday night, November 25th. The year of our Lord 2025. Our last show of the week. Although I am sure news will break and we'll have individual videos posted as well as we need to. But initially, like right off the bat. Tonight I got a metric ton of stuff to say about the college football playoff rankings. Which is weird because there wasn't a ton of movement, but there's a ton of mouths moving that don't need to be moving because they don't know what they're talking about. Couldn't be me, couldn't be us. Right? Rivalry week is upon us. We've got predictions. Also, since we're not going to have a Thursday show, we do what's become the most popular segment that we do every week, which is upset alerts. It's all in tonight's show. It's the most jam packed show of the modern era. Of the week. Coaching searches. I'm not going to do one segment for each. I'm just going to throw everything I have at you and then we'll see what happens. Oklahoma State has hired Eric Morris today, for example. We're going to talk a lot about it. College football playoff predictions. I've got some slight adjustments to make to my own. We got the JP Poll on the show tonight. We could go four hours. Probably won't be. We could go four hours. They're watching us in Tucson, Arizona, New Orleans, Louisiana, Atlanta, Georgia and Biloxi, Mississippi, where I have it on good authority I will be at some point tomorrow. We're over 490,000. We're right on the precipice of 500,000 subscribers. So if you've been holding out, I'm not even going to shame you. I don't even care. What's past is past. The future is now. Please pause. Reflect on life. Are things going perfectly for you? If they aren't, I can give you the answer. Jesus. But then after that, subscribe to the channel and I want to make sure to specify in that order, subscribe to the channel because it helps us get to 500,000. And really it's just been an internal goal of ours. I mean, Bradley comes in and checks every single morning. Did we make it? Not yet. Bradley. All right. And then he goes out to the truck. I don't want to see that long face anymore. Bradley could be sad. I just want him to be sad for other reasons. So get us to 500,000. Subs for Bradley. Okay, let's dive into the show tonight. The College Football playoff rankings were just released in the past few minutes and I don't like it. The rankings themselves are okay. I'm not a huge fan of some of the discourse that's starting to take shape. You can, you can already tell the positioning is start to happen. Now before we even dive in, I want to make sure I remind everyone I'm not a big eyeball test guy. That includes mine. I have said for a while if I was the college football Playoff commissioner and I just solely ran the playoff. One of the first things I would do is I would define parameters. Why would I do that? Specifically? To let as much of it play out on the field as possible and to remove my gut or my eyeball test. And I don't care if you have or haven't coached the game. Like, here's what I've always said about former coaches in the eyeball test. I got supreme respect for guys who have coached this game and played this game. Why don't any former coaches go make a living betting football? If it's that easy to apply the eyeball test and figure out who's better than who, why don't you ever hear about former coaches making a living gambling on football? You notice. You never really hear that. Conversely, you notice how a bunch of calculator heads could run circles around coaches when it comes to betting football. So that's one reason, but not the only reason that I've always advocated for removing the eyeball test as much as possible. Define the parameters and then stick to them. So if you think head to head matters a lot, good. Define it and stick to it. Don't define it. And then come time to stick to it, say, ah, yeah, but my eyeballs are telling me something different, brother. If your eyeballs are telling you that there's that big a gap between a couple of teams that already played and team B beat Team A, Team B won't even be in the ballpark of team A to begin with. If they are, forget your eyeballs and use your preset parameters. So with that in mind, the rankings have been released. There they are on your screen right now. Welcome to the party, Arizona. We got a ranked matchup going down this weekend, Arizona and Arizona State, which we'll talk about in upset alerts later. But here's what I wanted to get to okay, the two loss chaos conundrum scenario, et cetera. Trademark registered is still on the table. And that could include Notre Dame and maybe like an Alabama or Utah or Brigham Young or Miami or Brigham Young and Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, all these teams, Oklahoma could just be sitting there. Ole Miss, two losses. Who knows what the Egg bowl could bring? But all these two lost teams could be sitting there. Obviously we don't have enough room for all of them. And someone said earlier tonight, well, that puts the committee in an impossible position. No, it doesn't. Use your preset criteria. Apply it to the field and pick 12 teams. That's where I will tell you, by the way, it doesn't mean Tear it down. I want to caution everyone, here's what's about to happen. It's almost an inevitability now that we're going to get to the finish line and it's different than last year. Last year, the big story going into that Sunday was are they going to put SMU in or are they going to drop them and put one of the SEC teams in? That was it. There will be, I think, far more drama on Selection Sunday this go round than there was last year. Now you know that there are some jackals sneaking around the barn out back that want to expand this playoff. And mark my words, they will use the drama on Selection Sunday as ammunition in the barrel to expand the playoff. Because why? Well, because we wouldn't have this mess if we expanded to 16. It's not a mess. It's not a mess. This was my stance when we had a four team playoff. I never shed any tears for the fifth and sixth and seventh teams. I always said I'd rather us have the size of playoff where maybe we had five and we couldn't quite fit the last one in or even in the 12 team format. I'd rather us have 12 and can't quite fit 13 and 14 in. I'd rather have scarcity creating value in playoff spots than just to continue this evergreen mentality of oh man, someone's upset, someone's mad they got left out of the playoff. What's the answer? Expand it? It's not the answer. Suck it up and win your games next year is the answer. I'm saying that generically now so we can play my own words back to me when I'm upset on Selection Sunday is my whole point. All right? This Miami, Notre Dame mess, if Miami takes care of business against Pitt, is going to be a mess. And I already listened. I listened to Heather Dennis tonight. I'm not trashing Heather Dennich. Heather Dennich is reporting what she's being told. So I actually appreciate her articulating this on air. But she already started to set it up. She already started to pave the Runway for the committee. And that Runway sounds a little something like this. Miami beat Notre Dame early in the year. So they have played each other. Miami won and then Miami lost a couple of games and so did Notre Dame. But Notre Dame's got two really, really good losses, which is something I do believe in, by the way. And so it looked for a while like once Miami lost that second game, they're going to fade. And that head to head is not even going to matter. Well, now Miami has started to win some games. They've gotten fairly hot down the stretch and now that gap between those two teams is shrinking. And.
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Logic just tells you, well, wait a second, if they get close enough to be compared to each other, then doesn't that head to head matter? And there is a good reason to think that. It's in the committee's stated protocol. And Heather Dennis threw the E brake on it tonight and said, hey, not so fast, not so fast. Just because Miami is rising is like clockwork. I knew it was coming. Just cause Miami's rising doesn't mean there's some magical threshold past which they get put into the same comparative pool as Notre Dame. Therefore the head to head becomes the trump card. Don't just expect that. What she say? She said, because this committee's eyeballs tell them that Notre Dame's better. There are few things in life I care less about than the committee's eyeball test and I'm going to tell you why. Because half of them are athletic directors. And even the ones in there who are football coaches should know your eyeball test can come into play when you've got comparable teams. Comparable teams that haven't played on a field. If they've played on a field, then we need to value the head to head result. You know, the spirit of competition, which is what sports are actually about. And I was listening to Booger McFarlane fight the good fight on the ESPN set earlier tonight, said, guys, it's about a resume, it's not a beauty pageant. And then some other folks pushed back on him. And the main pushback will be that game happened a long time ago. And now there's a big difference between these teams. Like there are folks out there who think Notre Dame would just dog walk Miami if they played today. I'd pick Notre Dame over Miami. That is irrelevant. Even my opinion on the head to head is irrelevant. Which shows you what I think about the committee's eyeball test opinion on it. If they're comparable enough, what I think would happen on the neutral field is irrelevant. If there really is that big a gap between them, their resumes won't be comparable. But if their resumes are comparable. Stop overthinking the room on this. They played a football game. It's like we have so much time. It's like these coaching searches. You figure out who you want to be your head coach three weeks ago. What are we going to do, just sit here for three weeks? Yeah. If you figured it out three weeks ago. Just sit still. Just like in this. If you figured out head to head matters, then make head to head matter. You're already starting to set the stage here. You're already starting to set the stage because if you notice Pitts number 22, Miami gets to go play pit this weekend. And one of the other talking points is going to be, oh well, you know what? Notre Dame played Pitt and they smoked him in Pittsburgh. So if Miami goes up there and beats Pitt by a bigger margin than Notre Dame, then we'll talk. I couldn't care less about that. I don't care if they beat him by 50 or by 1. If they go up there, that is another ranked win on the resume of Miami. Notre Dame already had their shot to beat them on the road. They did. That's baked into Notre Dame's resume. That's why they're nine. Number 12 now gets to go play number 22. And if they beat him by one or they beat him by 50, that is another ranked win on the road to end the year. It should vault him up above Brigham Young at least at number 11. And at that point you're talking about a separation of one spot between these teams that you're trying to convince me are still so far apart that head to head shouldn't matter. Are you smoking meth in no world? Is that how that should work? And that's including me saying my opinions. Notre Dame's the better team. It doesn't matter. If you've ever picked one football game wrong and we all have. I don't care what your opinion is. I don't care who you think's better because we watched them play already. So that's my piece on that next Alabama sitting there at number 10 right now. I was listening earlier tonight to a lot of people speculate that if Alabama goes and beats Auburn Saturday and they go to the SEC championship game and lose, boy, are they in danger of dropping out. Well, if you want to burn the entire concept of conference championship games down, then yeah, leave the SEC's runner up out. I also think that an all state playoff predictor, which I talked about the other night, painting only like a 50 to 55% chance that a 10 and 3 Alabama makes the playoff is insanity. I want you to think this through with me. Forget about the calculators for a second. Think it through for me. Bama goes. This is a tall order now, but if Bama goes and beats Auburn Saturday, they go to Atlanta. They won't drop from 10. If anything, they'll be 10 or higher. So they will enter SEC championship Saturday as an SEC team, mind you, which matters, knowing they're in the playoff. If they canceled the SEC championship game that day, if it ceased to exist, that team would be in the playoff. You're telling me that you think there's a world where, because that game, which is a reward, that the two participants earned the right to play in. You're telling me if, if that participant being Alabama loses, you think that committee's gonna drop them out of the playoff?
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I don't see a world where that happens. I couldn't care less. Like, I literally think Notre Dame would get bumped out of the playoff before the SEC runner up does. Ole Miss would get bumped out of the. I don't care who it is. Any of these two lost teams, you say, oh, well, someone's got to fall out. I know it isn't going to be the SEC runner up that falls out. Now if it's the Big 12 runner up, like if you're trying to sell me that a conference champ runner up gets bumped out, I don't believe in the concept. But if the concept is going to happen, it's not going to be the SEC it happens to. So I don't buy that idea at all. Like, if I saw that happen, you are, you are fundamentally turning the entire complex on its ear. I mean, I can't even imagine what the SEC does if they watch that happen. I can't even imagine what the SEC does. I don't think it's going to matter because I think that's a moot point. Oregon did jump Ole Miss in these rankings. That's going to matter for some of your projected seeding. But also one of the questions that people started to ask today, like it just dawned on them today is, wait, wait a second. What happens if Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State? Well, they may fall out of the playoff. That's what may happen. They're the lowest ranked, Jesse, check me on this. They're the lowest ranked one loss team. Right. Aside from Brigham Young. Yeah. Okay, so, so of the teams that are, you know, Big ten, SEC caliber, they're the lowest ranked one loss team already. And they're not going to get a big boost this week. And certainly if you lose, that's a terrible loss to Mississippi State. And then, you know, a lot of people have been talking about how the committee's parameters and protocols, which they selectively choose to enforce, by the way. Some of those bullet points include the fact that they can dock you if your, you know, Key players go down a LA Jordan Travis 2 years ago or if coaching changes happen, if Lane leaves after they've lost the Egg Bowl. Yeah, I think Ole Miss may be a victim there in more ways than one. So just. They need to win. They need to take care of business this weekend. And Texas tech is at 5 right now. There was some speculation and there still is. When I'm looking at some of the projected brackets, a lot of people project Texas A and M to win the SEC championship. So let's say that happens for argument's sake. Like let's say Ohio State and Indiana play and whoever wins, wins. But they'll both be top four seeds no matter what. As long as they win out, they'll both be top four seeds. If A and M plays Alabama and A and M wins, they're locked in as a top four seed. But that means you've got a four spot there that's wide open. And it's either open for an at large team or it's open for Texas Tech if they win the Big 12 championship. Now I'm a believer and I'll talk about this later. If that fourth spot is open.
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I believe Texas Tech as the Big 12 champ will jump up and take that four seed. And I think that goes with a first round buy. Obviously, that's why it's so important. And then I think it would be like Georgia and then Oregon and then Ole Miss or whoever after them. But I do think that there's a world. Now, some other. Some other people disagree with that. Some other people think the highest Texas Tech is going to go, even if they're a conference champ, is five. And if that four spot is open, it would be taken by an SEC at large, like a Georgia or maybe even an Oregon in the Big Ten. I don't believe that. But we'll see what the committee does. Because as we have already documented tonight, I don't necessarily see eye to eye with those guys and girls all hours of the day and night. Oh, Jesse just. Jesse just popped in the earpiece right there and said he texted me. Aha. Very important information here. Fresh from the eye, Josh. Fresh from FanDuel, courtesy of the Eye Josh. We have projected first round spreads for the first round games. Here we go. Tulane at Texas tech. Texas Tech minus 21 and a half. Notre Dame at Oklahoma. Notre Dame minus 4 at Oklahoma.
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This. This matchup wouldn't happen, but it's still just great to look at on a screen. Miami at Oregon. Oregon minus seven and a half. Bama at Ole Miss is a pick them. So Texas Tech minus 21 and a hook against Tulane at home. Notre dame favored by four in Norman, Oregon -7 and a half at home against Miami and in Oxford, Mississippi, Alabama and Ole Miss would be a pick em. There you go. You can drive or fly, but especially for the purpose, plural of purpose of this read, I would assume you would like to drive in order to fuel up with quick trip. Quick trip. I. Well, I've been in a relationship with Kwiktrip. Not an open relationship because we're very monogamous together, but I've been open about our relationship for the better part of two years now. Things are going great. Things are going great. We've advanced to the point where we just hand out free gas cards to everyone. Like, we are very, very celebratory about our partnership with Kwiktrip. And I have it on pretty good authority that Kwiktrip will have heavy involvement with our live show next Friday. And there are only so many things that could mean most of the time it means free stuff. So cold brew on tap, they've got it. Gasoline outside, obviously, they've got it yum yums, which is meemaw code for snacks. They've got that. Straight up food, They've got that, too. Don't be fooled. Very few things in a quick trip that you can't get to fill you up, get you on your way. And they're fueling us, obviously. Down to Auburn, Alabama. The Fall Don't Lie tour making its final regular season stop the this Saturday, Jordan Harris Stadium. The Auburn T shirt for the fall Don't Lie tour available@patestatematerial.com right now. And we'll break that game down later.
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This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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Hey, Bowen. It's gift season.
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Ugh.
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Stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me?
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Exactly, honey.
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I'm easy.
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But you're right.
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Holiday gifting is stressful.
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And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
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Wait, what about the guide we made.
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In partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts mean incredible value?
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It's giving gifts, a series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
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Yeah. Cause if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
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Right?
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How about something for the people who.
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Actually surprise you with categories, like best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto.
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Psst.
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She wants a pair of stilettos or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have dying to.
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See what those are.
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And you won't believe their prices.
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Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
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You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
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Honestly, this is the guide for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
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Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's.
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Giving gifts gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
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Hello. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast smart talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CE Arvind Krishna and I asked him how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
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My one advice to them Pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah.
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Wow.
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So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
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To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smart talks.
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Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder? With a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus it's easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o dot com.
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Stay cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops. Because honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is Gonna give you two free select tools from DeWalt, Craftsman or Cobalt when you buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus, rewards members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in. Shop. New December deal drops on Lowe's.com every week. This month, fresh deals, cozy vibes, zero effort.
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But that is not what I hold in my hand right now. What I hold in my hand right now makes me nervous. Here we go. Ohio State, Michigan. Saturday, high noon Eastern kickoff on fox. I cannot overstate the mental impact that this had on me last year, that this had on Ohio State last year, firstly for terrible reasons.
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And.
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And then I'm a firm believer it catapulted them into discovering a whole new version of themselves, which was good enough to win a national championship.
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Michigan's won four straight. I don't know if you've heard that this week, but they've won four straight. But last year was the most inexplicable result out of this entire rivalry. As long as I've been a coherent adult human being watching it. Just remember, take yourself back earmuffs in Columbus for a second. Take yourself back. Okay. Michigan had won two in a row, and I'd been at both of those games. And last year they had won three in a row. I was so confident that Ohio State had this thing in the bag last year. I didn't go to that game. I went to Texas A and M Texas.
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So you've lost three in a row to him. You've got them at home, they're terrible. They can't complete a forward pass. You're well on your way to the playoffs. You're a three touchdown favorite. Weather looked bad early in the week. Come. Come Saturday, come kickoff time, it's sunny and Columbus is in the upper 40s. Everything is set, the stage is set. And you.
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I don't even. I'm just telling you, I watched it in disbelief. Given the circumstances. It was the most stunning outcome in a college football game that I think I ever remember. I'm talking about all the bigger upsets, like all the bigger point spread upsets. This wasn't the biggest point spread upset ever, obviously. 20, 21, something like that, given what was at stake. It was the most jarring result I think I've ever seen. Okay, so this Saturday, forecast in Ann Arbor, upper 20s at kickoff, 80% chance of snow as the game goes on.
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I also have it on good authority, in fact, how about FanDuel hit us up today? And they said if you would have bet $100 on Michigan Moneyline back when they first started this streak in 2021, bet $100 on Michigan that afternoon and keep doubling down with your winnings every, every game thereafter, you would be up $25,898 right now. And if you laid it on the line this Saturday and they won, you'd be up $81,000. I don't know if any of you out there did that. I'm just telling you, that's what fanduel let me know. So tell me one thing about the game. Who has more rushing yards? If anyone knows, if anyone has the crystal ball, and you can look into it, because I'm going to tell you, that's probably who wins the game. And the reason I'm going to say that another paper popper of a stat here is total rush yards. The team that wins that little mini battle within the battle has won the game since 2001. Every game since 2001 has been won by the team that had more rushing yards, run defense in this game. Ohio State 2, Michigan 11. It's tough to come by rushing offenses in this game. Ohio state in the 50s, Michigan number 10. That's Michigan shot. I mean, Michigan's got to be able to do it. And they can do it with quarterback as well. Obviously, no Justice Haynes for Michigan. Jordan Marshall, yes. Bryce Underwood, I think has got to get some stuff done with his legs in this game. But I'm going to say this again. Like I said last year, Ohio State holds all the keys here. It sounds a little disrespectful to Michigan, but I mean it in a couple of ways. The first set of keys that Ohio State holds is to all of college football. Because if Ohio State is as good as they've looked, very few teams can compete with them on a neutral field, which is what the playoff would be. So there's a very, very small handful of teams that could ever hope to win the national championship. If Ohio State is even just a smidge overrated, or if they're outright fraudulent, which I doubt, but humor me here, then they're like eight to 10 teams that could win it all. So Ohio State holds all the cards to the college football playoff in terms of variance. But they also hold the cards here because their plan A has worked all season. Like if you've watched Ohio State games, when have they had to deviate? When has the fastball not worked? They've been able to throw that thing 98 with pretty much pinpoint accuracy all year. And it doesn't really matter if you can paint in the upper 90s. You don't need a devastating 12 to 6 curveball. Like you don't need a change up that falls off a cliff. Lower black, you don't need all that. But that doesn't mean they don't have it. So they could have all that. Like it could be the worst of both worlds for opposing teams out there where Ohio State hasn't had to do that, but when they have to do it, they will be able to do it. Cat busters are important here. Cat buster profile bears very close watching. Ohio State's defense is number one in the country in cat buster runs allowed. Those are runs of 30 plus yards. If you've watched Michigan, Michigan's about as good as any team in the country at lulling you to sleep. You know, it looks like they just keep running into a brick wall. Gain of 1, gain of 3, gain of 2, boom. Gain of 80. And you, you can go into a Michigan preview and you could say if they just stop the explosive run, man, you can shut Michigan down. Or you'll come out of a Michigan win and you'll say, you know, Michigan only had 38 rushing yards outside of their two big explosive runs. Well, that's the thing. Michigan does that pretty regularly. They're top five in the country in cat buster runs. So that's one of those big something has to give sort of deals because it's a non negotiable. Michigan's got to break some explosive runs and Ohio State just hasn't given them up. But the thing about Michigan defensively is they're number one against the cat buster pass. They don't let you get them or at least they haven't let teams get them big chunk style through the air. Ohio State is top 10 offensively in that category. So it's a real good two way strength on strength there. But the thing to remember, the one thing I can't get out of the back of my mind about Ohio State is I said they were top 10 in Cat Buster plays through the air. Offensively they're number nine.
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They've really shut it down offensively. They really haven't had to gear up offensively a whole lot. So they may be better than ninth. Like really their top end, maybe number one in the country. Just interesting to keep an eye on there. Cat Busters. Cat Busters on the ground for Michigan. Cat Busters through the air for Ohio State. Ohio State's philosophy last year was an abomination in this game. Now, I don't think it was randomized. I think it was born out of this entire concept of being tired of being bullied in this game. And they were getting out physical by Michigan. And so Ryan Day rightly looked around and said, there's no reason we should ever get out physical against anyone. And so they dedicated themselves for an entire year to, we're going to hammer home that we will not be the second most physical team on the field with them come late November. But the problem is, once you got to the game, it became pretty obvious that Ohio State's edge was throw the ball. You recruited these guys for a reason. Throw the ball. And they didn't. And they just kept on running into brick wall after brick wall and it lowered the variance and it compacted the game and it limited possessions, which you never want to do if you're the more talented team, which Ohio State was. And it gave Michigan a shot. Thing is, Michigan didn't even play a good game and they still won. So I'd look at that and I'd say, I got all these horses in the stable. I'm letting the horses run this year. Jeremiah Smith looks like he's going to play. Carnell Tate looks like he's good to go, at least if you listen to Caleb Downs podcast, which of course I do. Michigan has faced one passing offense in the top 30 this year. Now, again, that doesn't automatically mean that your defensive stat profile is a mirage. That just means what it means. It means you may be every bit as legit as this paper says you are and you're going to prove it Saturday. But you have to prove it. That's all that means. But if I go down, if I'm Ohio State, I'm going down trusting Julian, saying to throw the rock to my playmakers. Not that I can't run the ball, but my edge in this game, I don't care if it's snowing. Honestly, snow probably hurts their defense more than me. As long as it isn't 20, 30 mile an hour. Gusty wins the footing, especially for the side of the ball. That has to anticipate what I'm doing because I know which routes my guys are running and I can make you look Like a fool and put you in a blender. So put more snow on the field, I don't care. Once I, once I figure out Julian saying is good to go and he's handling the rivalry well and he's handling the cold air well. If he's handling those things, I'm going down firing with that guy because their guy's going to do the same thing. They're going to trust him. At least I assume they are. I'm trusting my guy. There is no way that I'm going conservative in this one. And I'll tell You, Michigan, that one top 30 passing offense they faced was USC. USC threw it for 265 on them, but they ran it for 224 on them. Now that was in Los Angeles much earlier in the year and it was warm and this will be freezing cold in Ann Arbor. And this is kind of a one game season anyway. And I get that. You got to trust your quarterback. You got to let your horses run. I expect Ohio State to go total flamethrower early in this game. I truly believe that Ohio State staff looks at this game and says we could be up 21 nothing at the end of the first quarter and if they're up even half that much, it could be ball game. I don't like the prospects of Michigan playing catch up in this game whatsoever. So you go for the knockout and you've got the athletes to land the knockout blow. And if you do, it could be a fun final three quarters for you. And the worst that happens is you don't land it and then you settle into the game. But there's a worse worst that could happen and that is in the process of going for the knockout. You turn the ball over. Even then though, Michigan's not going to pull away from you. Like it'll be a compacted game. You could win in blowout fashion. Their shot is to beat you at the gun. That's probably the way the game profiles. But there's another, another, another worst case scenario that could happen and that is go three and out a couple of times your first two possessions and they put together a couple of 10, 11, play eight, nine minute time consuming drives on you and you look at your watch and wow, we got eight minutes to go until halftime and we're just now getting the ball for the second time. Now that is how the game starts to stack up. Exactly how Michigan wants it to stack up. Who plays whose game? Who forces the other to play their game. Michigan cannot win Ohio State's game. I Don't think that Ohio State can win Michigan's game. But Michigan obviously is in their wheelhouse when they're playing their game. That's why they call it Michigan's game. This game has humiliated me. Let me be more frank. Ohio State has embarrassed me four years in a row. I've picked Ohio State four years in a row in this game. They have lost four years in a row. I've been at three of them, trust me. And I can tell you, I know there's been a lot of talk this week about what the biggest rivalry is in college football. And I've been to all of them and they're all intense. There is no more intense rivalry than this one. To me. I grew up in the shadow of the Iron Bowl. I'll be at the Iron Bowl Saturday. That thing doesn't take much of a backseat to anyone. Ohio State, Michigan is just incredible though. And I'm telling you, I've been, you know, in Ohio Stadium most recently watching them lose and watching some of those seniors after the game's over and you've gone up the tunnel and, and you've done all your press and a lot of those guys are playing for their last time in their home building. And this was a couple of years ago to watch them come back out when the stadium's empty and you're out there doing your post game live hits and stuff. And I mean, it's so quiet in there, the wind blowing through the stadium, you can hear the cups blowing around in the stands and you just look and there are about five or six seniors sitting with their back against the wall on the ground, just bawling their eyes out. It means a lot, man. Game means a whole lot. So I'm going to show you what the model thinks about it. FanDuel's got Ohio State -10 and a half right now. Our model's got Ohio State -10. I picked this game the moment last year's game ended. I am not going to be proven wrong in this game by Ohio State losing again. So I think Ohio State's the better team. Model thinks Ohio State wins and wins comfortably. Everything about my breakdown of the game leans me towards Ohio State. I couldn't care less. Until further notice, Michigan will win this game. Michigan covers Michigan Moneyline. And look, if that's what it takes for Ryan Day and company to win this game, is for me to pick against them, then I'll be happy to take the fall for you. I'm just saying I've tried to ride with you the past four years you guys have done this to me. Michigan has done this to me as well. So I don't. It's inexplicable. I don't. Look, you heard the breakdown. I don't have a ton of ammunition for Michigan right now. You think I had reasons to pick them last year? No. They won anyway. So I expect an outcome that is void of reason until further notice.
- [37:41]
There. Let's move on. The game. I'll be at Iron bowl Saturday night, 7:30 Eastern kick ABC. Alabama at Auburn will be there on the sidelines in Jordan Harris Stadium. Hadn't been there in a couple of years. We are fueled by Quick Trip. The game is presented by quick trip, Alabama's 15 straight. They say this place is haunted. They say it's cursed. They say Bama can't go in there and win. And yet last two times I've watched him down there, they've ripped Auburn's heart out. Like it's one thing to get blown out. The way Bama's beat you in there twice is almost worse. And I'm asking for everyone who's talking about that place being cursed against Alabama. Could. Could the entire dynamic not be reversed there? If I was an Auburn fan and I watched the way I've lost to those fools in my backyard the last two times they were here, I'd be asking about the C word curse for my own self. Or maybe it's just not real at all and the team that executes the most wins the game. No, it can't be that. That can't be how football works anyway. Alabama's College Football Playoff hopes are on the line. DJ Durkin, interim head coach for Auburn. His name is in the mix. There is absolutely a world where Auburn wins this game in dramatic fashion Saturday and it is just a DJ Durkin love fest. And he rides that wave right into an announcement 24 hours later that that's our head coach. Could absolutely see that happening. Auburn's going to start Ashton Daniels at quarterback. So anyone who got drunk on the Deuce Night show against Mercer, good, good showing. But this is Ashton Daniels game. So I've got a piece of paper in front of me. Here's what we need to figure out. How many lies can Auburn make this sheet of paper tell? Because the sheet of paper makes it look like I should solidly lean Alabama in this game. Alabama's offensive strength matches up really well with Auburn's defensive weakness. And by that I mean Bama has got about the 9th or 10th best passing offense in the country. And Auburn's past defense is right around 100. Okay, that's what the paper says. Paper doesn't always matter though. Auburn's got the 11th run defense in the country. Bama not running the ball much anyway. You know what that sounds like? Sounds like the Oklahoma game a couple of weeks ago. Now. Oklahoma's got a better pass rush than Auburn. Auburn's pass rush, not bad though. And when you combine that with the fact that Bama played Oklahoma and Tuscaloosa, crowd noise not an issue. You're on the road. This will be the most hostile place Alabama plays in all year. You've got to deal with a pass rush and crowd noise. So look, I would view the challenge you're going to deal with up front Saturday as every bit as tough as what Oklahoma gave you in Tuscaloosa. I would just plan on that. Not to mention those dudes are going to play outside their minds with their hair on fire. So I would assume that. Can they make the piece of paper lie? Cause in the Oklahoma game, Ty Simpson got his. Jesse, he threw for over 300, right? He got his, but it came at the expense of turning the ball over. And that, that teach tape, like if you sit in a team meeting room Friday before a game, honestly, all week. But if you're in there Friday before a game, one of the last things any staff does is they get that entire team in that theater and they show them teach tape from other teams. They show them situational stuff usually on Friday. And then if you think turnover is going to be key here, I mean, for Auburn, it's really simple. Just show them the Oklahoma tape and show them how much Oklahoma attacked the football when Alabama had it. That's what could turn this game. That's what could make the paper lie. Secondly, is Alabama's offense regressing? Does it feel like it's cooling off a little bit? I think it is. Josh Cuevas for Alabama is, I think their fourth most important offensive player. Ty Simpson's up there, Jeremy Bernard's up there. Parker Brailsford to me is very important. The center Josh Cuevas, outside of those guys is right up there with one of the most important players on that team. He's kind of a do all guy. I mean, I had deboer tell me the story about when they first found him. Like just, he's a no star guy in California and they brought him into camp and he concussed a couple of guys in camp and they're like, yeah, we probably need to find a spot for this guy. And that's way back when he was at Washington and now he's here. He just kind of does everything. He's always around the ball. He's a very dependable safety valve for them on third down, of which there will be several critical downs of that nature in this game. And if he's not on the field, just means other folks got to step up. Man. No one's 100% this time of year, but Bama was 13 of 19 on third down against Georgia. That's the most comparable game this one probably has in terms of road environment. Bama went into Athens on a Saturday night and they went 13 of 19. Remember the precision? Remember how incredible that show was in the first half? Especially, how do you recreate that? You don't need that good a game to beat Auburn, but you need to be successful on third down here, like especially early on. You can't be stalling out. Couple of early three and outs of your own. You give them the ball, they start bleeding, clock on you. There's a whole mental side of this thing, by the way, that is just constantly knocking on Alabama's door anytime they're playing down there, try as you might to block it out. So, you know, do they click like they did against Georgia or is it more in line with the Oklahoma game? Maybe they do click, but then they turn the ball over and it doesn't matter that they were clicking. There was a quote I saw earlier today. Auburn can't win throwing the ball. It's very simplistic. Does that mean they don't have a forward pass en route to a win? Of course not. I wonder how true that is. I wonder how true that is. Now, the Bama pass rush, I think, is very much improved. Auburn is 134th in sacks allowed. So I do understand the sentiment that. I mean, you can't let Ashton Daniels just sit back there like a statue and get killed. Well, good. He's not a statue, so I don't expect him to sit back there. But I would just like you to look at the screen right quick for anyone who thinks they can't throw the ball. Was this dude not 31 of 44 for 353 through the air against Vanderbilt? Fairly decent team. Not a great secondary, but fairly decent team. Those aren't Mercer numbers at least. All due respect to the Bears, all due respect, I was on the campus of Mercer not too long ago. We didn't announce it though. Not a fall. Don't lie to her. Stop. My point is when you add the element of mobility here, I do think there could be some explosive plays through the air. Probably not going to throw the ball 44 times unless you're playing catch up. But I think about the mobility factor. I think about consistent 5 yard gains. I think about the effort and whether Auburn can give themselves an edge in the effort department. I just wonder how much Alabama is going to need offensively. I don't expect them to need 35 or 40 to win this game but. But Robbie Ashford did plenty enough against Vandy on the road to get Auburn in position to maybe win a game. Expect an inspired effort here. Just can they stun him early? It almost feels that's the way the game script always plays out. It's Bama gets on the ropes early and then they're fighting and then they got to come from behind at the gun to win in Jordan Hare Stadium. I'll tell you, I see this game a little different way. I'll show you what the model thinks. The fanduel number right now is Alabama -5 and a half. So I said this game profiles like the Oklahoma game and everyone, especially the Oklahoma video department who I am back on good terms with now by the way, I'm happy to report everyone remembers me emphatically picking Alabama to win that game and cover because I was very confident that they would do exactly what they did from a statistical profile. The only thing I didn't anticipate was they would lose the turnover battle. 3 oh, and it wasn't random. Oklahoma took the ball away three times. But I still believe that in terms of a predictive nature that stat is randomized. Like Bama could be plus three turnovers themselves Saturday. Every bit as likely as they're minus three turnovers. I think because of the Oklahoma outcome combined with the entire notion that there is black magic in play anytime Alabama goes to Auburn. This line has been sucked down to five and a half. We think it should be over a touchdown. We think Bama should be favored by 8. So I'll take that value. I don't think Bama's getting punched out here. I think they're going to go in there and win and I will actually take them to cover the five and a half and I will take them to go to Atlanta. Going to be a very entertaining game though. And then we look towards the next week and the next week. If I'm right, the next week would be Alabama goes to Atlanta. Who are they playing? Could be playing A and M. Could be playing Georgia. Either way a ton of those folks watch our show, a ton of them would be in Atlanta. Did you know that we'll be in Atlanta that Friday night before the game? Did you know that we're having a live show that Friday night before the game? Yes. This is not rumor. This is not baseless speculation. Sources are confirming that we will have a show live at the Buckhead theater there in Buckhead. Tickets are on sale. Now, we. Look.
- [46:37]
I am being very careful with how we promote this, okay? Because we're going to sell this thing out pretty quick. It's a pretty big theater. But we're on the verge of selling the thing out already. And I haven't really. I haven't said a word about this on socials yet because I know we'll get a flood when I say something about it on social. So I'm giving our cores, our day ones, our P1s, the first shot at buying tickets. And most of you have. You can go to patestatematerial.com if you haven't purchased already. Still got some seats left. They're not going to be there much longer is all I can tell you. So I will end up promoting this on social. And I hope everyone who wanted to get in, who is a dedicated, loyal viewer of the live show gets priority because you deserve it. And that's why we're only promoting it on the show right now. But it's going to be fun. Going to have some special guests, probably announce those next week, and we are going to have a ton of fun. It's not going to be like doing this show. It'll be a live show, but it'll be like us on stage, fully interactive. Anyone who was in Lincoln, Nebraska, when we went up there with busing with the boys, that kind of show, that's the kind of show we're going to do. It won't be broadcast anywhere. The only way to see it will be there. Let's dive back into the show that we're doing right now.
- [47:56]
B
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [47:59]
C
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [48:02]
B
Hey, Bowen. It's gift season.
- [48:04]
D
Ugh.
- [48:05]
C
Stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me?
- [48:08]
D
Exactly, honey.
- [48:10]
B
I'm easy.
- [48:11]
E
But you're right.
- [48:12]
B
Holiday gifting is stressful.
- [48:13]
C
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
- [48:16]
B
Wait, what about the guide we made.
- [48:18]
C
In partnership with Marshalls where premium gifts mean incredible value?
- [48:21]
B
It's Giving Gifts, a series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
- [48:27]
C
Yeah, because if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
- [48:31]
G
Right?
- [48:32]
B
How about something for the people who actually surprise you with categories?
- [48:36]
C
Like Best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto. Psst, she wants a pair of stilettos.
- [48:42]
B
Or Best gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have dying.
- [48:46]
C
To see what those are.
- [48:47]
B
And you won't believe their prices.
- [48:49]
C
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
- [48:52]
B
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
- [48:55]
C
Honestly, this is the guide for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
- [48:59]
B
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's.
- [49:02]
C
Giving gifts Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
- [49:05]
D
Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CE Arvind Krishna and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
- [49:22]
F
My one advice to them, Pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah, so we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
- [50:12]
D
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.
- [50:23]
G
Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder? With a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus, it's easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o.com stay.
- [51:24]
A
Cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops. Because honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is going to give you two free select tools from dewalt, Craftsman or Cobalt when you buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus, rewards members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in. Shop New December deal drops on lowe's.com every week this month. Fresh deals, cozy vibes, zero effort.
- [52:05]
D
Boy, these coaching searches are about to be insane. It's Tuesday night right now, and we know that Eric Morris has taken the Oklahoma State job. I'll talk about that in a little while, but everyone is still talking about Lane Kiffin. And I've been accused of taking like 8 minutes per show to say nothing about Kiffin. No, no, what I've been doing is giving you accurate updates. There have been no updates. There have been rumors on message boards when I've been telling you, hey, nothing's decided yet. I could just sit here and say, hey, he's going to lsu. Oh, I'm predicting him to go to Florida. Well, I don't really care where I predict him to go. I mean, I've got pretty good guided intel or good knowledge, good firsthand knowledge of the situation. It's just been undecided. Now, I am ready to tell you Tonight, on Tuesday, November 25th, if I had to guess where he's going to end up, I think he's the next head coach at lsu. That's my guess. I don't know that that's nailed down. I am just telling you, I have worked with people like Lane. I know where Lane's head has been, at least as much as any outsider can know where Lane's head has been. It is not decided until he looks Jimmy Sexton in the eye and says, sign it. Do it. Pull the trigger. Until then, it doesn't matter who's looked at real estate, who has tentatively purchased real estate, which plane's gone where. That dude could call LSU tonight and say, I'm coming and Change his mind tomorrow morning. That's the nature of this. It has been. I believe LSU is in the best position. I do believe that. I don't think anything's fully decided. I don't think anyone's fully out of this. That includes Ole Miss. Even though a lot of people would tell you they are out of it. I don't believe that until it's over. But what's got my interest here is not so much Lane. Everyone's paying attention to him. What happens to the school? Schools that don't have his services. If he stays at Ole Miss, it's especially crazy because that means the Florida and LSU jobs remain open. But let's say it goes the most likely scenario. Let's say he goes to lsu, the Florida job is still open. Where do they turn? I do think they've tried to get their Ducks in a row. I think John Sumrall still in the mix for that job. Eli Drinkwitz name has been mentioned, but the fan base seems to be pushing back on that a lot. I've seen Jed Fish's name thrown around. You know, Jed would love that job, man. And he has gotten hot as of late. And I want you to picture this world, okay? You gotta. You gotta forward think on this. Picture a world where Lane, after the Egg bowl, decides he's either going to LSU or he's gonna stay at Ole Miss. And Jed Fish upsets Oregon. This is in no way how coaching searches should operate, but they do operate this way. Picture that late wave of momentum that Jed Fish has. And here's what you do. If you're Scott Strickland, you pull the A and M move, but it's not the way A and M did it. But you still pull the A and M move. You float a name, maybe it's Drink. And by the way, I think Eli Drinkowitz would do great at either one of these places. People are so backwards with the way they judge that guy. But if the fan base doesn't want him, the fan base doesn't want him. So you float the name that you know people will revolt against. Kind of like Mark Stoops name got floated at A and M, only they were about to hire Mark Stoops. And. And the Billy Lucci crew out there ended up tearing that down. Then they got Mike Elko, who I'm told is doing all right. You float the name the folks wouldn't want. And then you circle back around, you go hire Jet Fish. Because what you don't want is if you hire Jed Fish, I'M just saying, if you hire Jed Fish in this scenario, what you don't want is people saying, we didn't get Kiffin. We got Jed Fish. What you want them saying is we got Jed Fish instead of Eli Drinkwitz. If they prefer him over Eli. That's how you operate that. That's how I think that would go down. Still a lot of stones unturned. Eric Morris did sign with Oklahoma State today. So Eric Morris was the North Texas head coach and I thought he was going to Arkansas, guys, and I think he had an offer from Arkansas. This is just what I've heard. I think he chose Oklahoma State over Arkansas and that that's kind of indicative of where the Arkansas coaching search is right now. I think at Oklahoma State, they probably sold him that we can do what Texas Tech is doing. We got big money here, too. We can be the next Texas Tech. That's going to be about half a dozen different Big 12 schools pitches over the next 12 to 24 months, by the way. So good hire the Tom Fornelli line. I just. We're going to license it from Fournelli. Great hire. I have no idea whether it'll work out to the safest you could possibly play it. Where's Arkansas going to go? I have said for quite a while I would love to go get Alex Golish if I were Arkansas. The thing of it is, I don't know how available he is to Arkansas. He has listened. I know he would listen. I know there's probably some trepidation about, you know, getting questions answered the way you want them. And this is not just a goal listing. Anyone who takes that Arkansas job is asking the same set of questions. And I know, Hunter, your check's taken a lot of heat up there, maybe rightfully so. But if you don't get those questions answered perfectly, you don't take the Arkansas job because you're all already behind the eight ball. If you take the Arkansas job because they're going to pay you a ton of money, which means they're going to have outsized expectations there relative to what you're probably capable of in the sec. I got a lot of respect for that program, but until further notice, that's the state of affairs. So it's got to be a perfect situation or else you don't land the plane at Arkansas. I don't know where they're going to go. Kane Womack, I think, is a candidate for that job. And I, you know, the other thing, I wonder and I haven't heard anything on this. You know what? Nevermind. Because what I was going to do is just throw a random name out there and I'm not doing that. Penn State. Speaking of random names, does anyone know what Adam Brennaman is talking about? Does anyone know? Should we text Adam? No. No. It's much more fun to baselessly speculate. I know the Penn State community has noticed that you still haven't hired a coach. I got some very mixed reviews on the state of the Penn State search, but I also think it's become really closed off. So I think Pat Kraft is really flying almost solo. Not quite solo, but I mean, I really think he's pushed a lot of voices out of the room. And truthfully, I don't know how qualified he is to pull this thing off. I do not think they're going to get any of the grand slam candidates. I don't think they're getting any of the home run candidates. I still think Bob Chesney could very well get this job. Who is the head coach at jmu? That's just what I think. A lot of people are asking about a tweet from Adam Brennaman that talks about a big name out there that is kind of off everyone's radar and that's the one that they're sort of honing in on. And there was some reporting from our Penn State on 3 site earlier today that there's some traction with that name and they think that name's going to be receptive and they don't think that name is going to, you know, drop out at the last minute, like maybe an Eric Morris at Arkansas. Do I know the name? Yeah, I know the name. I will tell you this. It's not my intel to report, okay? I assume that name will leak. I will also tell you I have not personally heard that name any other place. I haven't heard that name for any other coaching opening. And outside of, you know, being told who Adam was talking about, I haven't heard that name mentioned by anyone else. Agents, other coaches up for the job, anybody at Penn State involved with the coaching search. That means what it means. That just means I haven't heard it. That doesn't mean it's not true. It could be totally accurate. I got no reason to doubt it. Got no reason to doubt it.
- [59:55]
If. If what Adam Brennama is talking about, if that name is the one to pan out, if that's the guy that Penn State signs, he is absolutely right. That would turn heads. He is absolutely right. That name would come like Sting from the rafters. I would. I would give you 15 guesses. And I don't think even people who have been following this coaching search, I really don't think that name would come up in the top 15. Now I will be called irresponsible for doing this and not sharing a name. It's not my intel to share. I just happen to know who he's talking about. It would be interesting. Personally, I don't think it's a fit. And I will absolutely tell you if the dude who gets hired is the one he was talking about. I will absolutely tell you. I assume he will, though. I don't have to worry about me doing that. I assume he will at Auburn. I am still going to stand by my guns here. This has been a very, very high level coaching search. It has been the most, relatively speaking, seamless operation. Seamless. Yeah. Seamless operation in a coaching search format that I've seen Auburn conduct and we've seen him conduct several of them. I still bet my money on John Sumrall there. I don't think that's a done deal. It's not done deal until he's at the press conference because John's in pretty high demand. So Auburn's. Auburn's got their Ducks in a row. This is not a wobbly search. If they don't land their guy, it's just because their guy wanted to go somewhere else more. So it's not going to be because they fumbled the bag at the 11th hour. I don't think. I think DJ Durkin still has a really good shot to get this job. Obviously when the Iron bowl, and that really gets turned up. A long timeline does funny things. So if the Auburn job came open today, if they fired Hugh Freese today, we would have a week and the coaching search would just go like one or two days and there'd be a big list of names. Then it would narrow down. Then there would be a guy that was the front runner over the weekend and then there would be a report, they're finalizing terms and then you got him and you didn't even have time to speculate. But because they fired Hugh Free so long ago, you've had multiple weeks to speculate, so it gets old just saying the same thing. So let's say one guy has really been the guy the whole time. Let's say it's Clark Lee. Clark Lee's been involved in the Auburn coaching search. Let's say Clark was the guy the whole time. It gets boring just continuing to say it's going to be Clark. It's Clark's job. So you just out of boredom, you start inserting new names or you start manufacturing drama. And I really think sometimes that's the way this works. And I really think the Auburn coaching search has been pretty buttoned up and the lack of drama almost has some of my Auburn constituency concerned. No, no, no. The opposite of that should have you concerned. They're watching us in Trenton, New Jersey. They're watching in Charlotte, North Carolina. Cordial, Georgia. We appreciate you guys so much. Back to the rivalry week predictions. Texas A and M at Texas Friday, 7:30 Eastern kickoff, ABC. They're not even making us wait until Saturday. That's why rivalry week, much like hope, is a good thing, maybe the best of things. SEC Championship game. Trip was on the line last year. We were at this game last year in College Station. Winner goes to Atlanta. And it was a 17 to 7 game. It wasn't particularly aesthetically pleasing. I think it got two chalai max and it was a 10 point game. But A and M just never really felt like they were in it. So I got a question for you. Who has the quarterback edge in this game? You could ask. Well, you mean who's been the better quarterback all season? Who's been the better quarterback the last few weeks? Like, what do you want to know? Well, I want to know how you would answer that. Is it a season thing? Is it a November thing? I'm just telling you. Arch has thrown for 300 plus and three plus touchdowns in three of his last four games.
- [63:31]
And Marcel Reed, you probably remember him digging himself a hole against South Carolina. Pulling himself out of the hole. I'm still holding on to my Marcel Reed Heisman ticket. If it's going to cash, he's got to make his move this weekend. So do I have a favorite in this game? Yes. I'm pulling from Marcel Reed. I would love for him to throw for six hundo now. Maybe Arch matches him and we go to overtime, in which case, you know, started over and all's well, it ends well and, you know, Texas doesn't suffer because my Heisman pick wins. But every November there is a performance that gets remembered and becomes the focus of the next year's hype. Which would be ironic if it were Arch because Arch was really hyped up. He was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy this year. You'll remember famously in July, and it would be so crazy if he kind of fell short of expectations. But then he had a game against A and M late that Made people say, you know, his season was kind of up and down, but man, did you see he played his best ball late. You know, they say it about someone every year and he peaked at the right time and they lit up Texas A and M and boy, that really builds momentum into winter conditioning and spring ball. And this time next year, Arch may really, he may very well be the best quarterback in the country. That could happen Saturday. It could happen Saturday. One area Texas has to answer for, though, sort of a pre paper popper here. A and M is 14th in the country and explosive passes and Texas's defense is 98th in that category. Texas defense is just 107 overall against the pass. And now we saw Marcel Reed do it because he had to to come from behind. But we've just seen them do it this year, period. And they've got really good receiving talent. And when some of that talent has been hurt, there's been new talent that's emerged. And the thing about it is sometimes when you say that about a team, you can afford to play a little bit lighter in the box to help slow down that passing game or to help fill some alleys in that passing game. Maybe force a tip ball in completion or better yet, an interception. You can't do that against A and M because against Auburn they had 47 carries for 207 and a score. I mentioned Auburn because Auburn's run D probably most readily. Profiles like Texas's. Does like Texas. Pretty good against the run, not so good against the pass. That's kind of Auburn's profile. It's not shot for shot, but it's kind of the same way. And A and M ran it on them. Not at will, but they ran it plenty good enough. And CJ Vogel has been providing stat gems all year and he provided another one. Here's why that running game so important aside from the obvious. Marcel Reed on play action this year. 73.8% completion percentage, 16 touchdowns, one pick.
- [66:18]
You suck at running the ball. No one falls for play action. You're running the ball effectively. Play actions there. Marcel reed without play action. 55.4% completion guy. Nine touchdowns, seven interceptions. My prediction, A lot of play action. Colin Klein dialing it up in this game. But what does play action require? Time.
- [66:40]
Where does Texas specialize getting after the quarterback? They're number three in the country in SAC rate, so that's the balance you have to strike there. Texas is 10th and turnover margin, A&M's 109th. Sometimes that matters, sometimes it doesn't. I'm just telling you, if it plays out according to the stat sheet, Texas has a big edge here, enforcing turnovers. It didn't matter in Oklahoma, Alabama most recently. Maybe it won't matter here. Steve Sarkeesian needs something to sell. He needs a big win to hang his hat on. He has not gotten it. He badly needs it. Texas A and M has won games in all sorts of ways this year. They beat Notre Dame in a shootout. They beat Auburn in that slugfest. They got down 30 to 3 to South Carolina and had to come from behind to win. They went on the road to Missouri the week before and just totally handled business. So they are well versed in winning any kind of game that Texas presents them. Let's take a look at what the model thinks the FanDuel number is A and M minus two and a half. The model agrees. We got A and M minus three.
- [67:46]
I think a and M is going to go in there and get the job done. This is a really important game for those folks. Not to mention just the whole rivalry dynamic. I got through this whole thing and I didn't even mention the pure, unadulterated hatred of Texas A and M and Texas. I mean, Texas is a home dog on this game still with the audacity to kind of pat A and M on the head. Welcome in, little bro. Nope, can't let it be that way. And I don't think it will be that way. I think A and M will get the job done. They'll win, they'll cover, and they will go to Atlanta to play for an SEC championship. We move on nice, brisk pace here because I've got so much to get to tonight. If you're watching, Just an FYI, we do this show free year round. We would never ask you to pay for the show, but the way we do it for free is by you subscribing to the channel. Now, mind you, it doesn't cost you anything to subscribe and it doesn't sign you up for anything. All it does is help us so we don't have to go have a big corporate umbrella over the show. You know, a lot of you rail against corporate sports media. Okay, well, the way that you create alternatives is to help us do a show like we do here. Hopefully you like it enough to subscribe to the channel. And then those numbers in turn get seen by advertisers and they invest their money here instead of there. And then we get to grow this show with no oversight and we get to do it however we want to. So our Balls are in your court.
- [69:07]
I got the JP Poll right here. The JP Poll, not a ranking. JP Poll, power ratings. Now, the JP Poll sees things a little bit different than the playoff committee, but that's okay because we're not trying to do on this piece of paper here what the playoff committee does know. What we're trying to do is tell you just who would be favored on a neutral field. Now if you don't care about that, you should skip past this right now. Because what I don't like is people who watch this video and then go to the comments section and say, who cares? You, you're watching. No one's forcing you. I just find this to be a little helpful. Just a little added bullet point. Just some information for you to do with whatever you will.
- [69:44]
We've got some movement this week, so let me just go 20 to 1 right quick. And I've got, I've got some real tightening at the top now. Ohio State's had a big gap on everyone this year. They don't have a huge gap anymore, at least over number two. So Michigan's number 20, Iowa is 19. Penn State is at number 18.
- [70:05]
Penn State's been playing good football. You know, Penn State never dropped out of our top 20. I manually removed them out of embarrassment. But I was wrong. The model got to give it credit, it was right. It never dropped Penn State out of the top 20. And now Penn State's playing to form. That's why the model, that's why it does not give up on talented rosters. And that's why sometimes you'll see, like Texas is a three loss team right now. They would be solidly favored over one loss. BYU on a neutral field. That doesn't mean that beat them. It's just how odds making works. So Penn State sitting at 18, got three Big Ten teams right there. Vandy's at 17, Brigham Young is at 16. That is the highest Brigham Young's been all year. Back to back, very impressive wins. I think Brigham Young's two best games have happened in back to back weeks. TCU at home, at Cincinnati, nothing flukish about them. The games count, even if you do win in flukish manner. But in terms of predictability and in terms of odds making and power rating, Brigham Young, that profile is getting more and more legit. Or as they would argue, it's always been legit. The model's just now catching up. And you know what, you guys may be right. 15, USC didn't really drop all that much. Kind of got the Outcome we expected. Therefore we don't drop you. Tennessee's at 14. All right. Miami is at 13. They are down two points from their preseason power rating. But they're down seven points from where we had them in week seven. Now they are ticking up a little bit, but Miami, man, at one point, remember we had them top five and we weren't alone and they dropped the ball a little bit. Now can they get themselves in the playoffs? Oklahoma's at 12, Utah is at 11. I think the model is way overrated on Utah. That's my personal opinion. I never believed that Utah should be power rated above Texas Tech. The model did so drugs when it comes to Utah. Top 10. Texas is at number 10. Texas, just to give you an idea, so they play Texas A and M at home this weekend. Preseason, we would have had. Or the model. Excuse me, not not we. The model would have had Texas minus 10 against A&M in Week 1 if they played in Austin. As it stands today, A and M is a short favorite in Austin. Huge line move over the course of a year. Texas Tech is at nine. They have ascended to their rightful place as the highest power rated Big 12 team. Ole Miss is 8, Notre Dame 7. Oregon is 6. Notre Dame has been so steady all year. I'm looking.
- [72:44]
The model has not deviated more than two points up or down on Notre Dame all year. It's important to note, remember, Jesse, they lost their first two games. We dropped Notre Dame less than half a point for losing to Miami and then losing to Texas A and M because there were good teams that they lost to. Now there's a big difference in a playoff committee ballot versus power ratings. Like we didn't drop Notre Dame. I don't know. I mean, the lowest. We kept them in the top 10 all year and we got ridiculed for it. Well, again, now where are they? Like, where were the trolls that were hating on Notre Dame when we had them? Where we were supposed to. Now mark my words, we'll have people come for us and say we hate Notre Dame because I dared to mention the head to head result in our playoff portion of the show against Miami. There's no winning around here. No winning. You know what? We're winners. We're very blessed. We appreciate you guys. Five to one, Bama's five. Indiana is four. A&M is three. Georgia is two, Ohio State's one. Now Ohio State's been number one for quite a while. There have been times this year where there were four point gaps between Ohio State and the rest of the field. There is a one point gap between Georgia and Ohio State right now. There's a four point gap according to the model between Ohio State and Indiana. I think FanDuel has the hypothetical Big Ten championship game line up right now and I think I saw it was Ohio State -5½. So the model would slightly lean Indiana there. Anyway, that is the JP Poll for tonight. Academy Sports and Outdoors does not sell the JP Poll because the JP Poll is not a commodity that you can purchase but they pretty much sell everything else. And you can get hunting gear, you can get a basketball. Big League Chew is available year round. Do they have seasonal Big League Chew? I don't think they do. We can check on that. Academy Sports and Outdoors has been a longtime partner of ours and this is the way I look at it. A lot of you go to college football games but even if you don't go to games regularly, all of you do stuff outdoors, which means outdoor essentials are a must, which means you're gonna purchase them somewhere. I just ask if you're a friend of the program, why not shop with friends of the program? And you don't have to skimp on quality. They got great stuff. They got what you need. They got grills, they got canopies, they got baseball gloves. We're heading to winter but maybe you're going to play Puerto Rico. Maybe you're going to play winter ball down there. I don't know what you're doing. I encourage it. It's very warm down there. Academy.com has your hookup if you can't get there in person. But I strongly encourage you guys to go there in person. Good people at Academy.
- [75:20]
We continue.
- [75:22]
Boy, jam packed show. Very jam packed. Vandy at Tennessee has the state of Tennessee in shambles right now. I am coming to you from Nashville, Tennessee and I can tell you this entire state is shook. You got Thanksgiving Thursday and then you've got, and say this slowly, the University of Tennessee hosting Vanderbilt in Knoxville playing spoiler. That's. Am I reading that right? Yes, yes, that's the case. We got, we got a potential playoff implication on this game. There's no guarantee Vandy makes it in if they win. If they lose, there's a guarantee they're not going to be in. We got Diego Pavia resurrecting the Heisman campaign. He threw for like half a mile last week and it's all going to take place in Neyland Stadium. It's unbelievable. Tennessee is a short two and a half point favorite here. The total in this game, 65 and a half. Is 35 going to be enough to win for either team? What do you think the winning team is going to have? What do you. Okay, so I should ask it this way. What point total will the losing team have? Add one to that and that's how many points the winning team will need. Good math. We checked it with stats and info. So what's the Number? Is it 36? Is it 31? Is it 46? What number do you think is necessary to win this game? I think it's like 38 or something like that. Diego Pavia is facing the number 111 pass defense. Joey Aguilar is facing the number 113 pass defense. Pavia against Texas, Auburn and Kentucky averaged 408 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, put up a 15 to 1 touchdown to INT ratio. Joey Aguilar, five games of three plus passing touchdowns. Problem is he's got four games of two plus interceptions. Which means Joey Aguilar's profile is about what you would have expected if you watched his career to this point. That's what he's been this year for Tennessee. The Tennessee defense versus running quarterbacks is what I'm really focused on here. I watched him against Taylor Green in Arkansas. Taylor Green gave him some trouble. Not he didn't rip them, but 17 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown. John Mattier carried it 16 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. And just consider this spot. Consider this moment. This is one of the biggest games in Vanderbilt history. Diego Pavia is not going on to play 15 years in the league. Okay? Diego Pavia is a college football iconic name. You will talk about him for a long time, but you're going to be talking about him because of what he did in college. And I think we all understand that. Which means you need to appreciate games like this. You don't have him much longer. At least we don't think this could be a legacy game. Loading. For Diego Pavia.
- [78:15]
What is needed to win and if he caps this season by going and kneeling and winning? I think there's a world where if Vandy wins and they don't make the playoff. But like Diego Pavia has a big game. There are sympathy Heisman votes that go his way. Not that he will require sympathy, but could you not see that? Could you not see a lot of these Heisman voters watching him go off and maybe there's no clear cut Heisman favorite. Vandy gets locked out of the playoffs even though they're 10 and 2. Maybe the only shot that program will ever have at the playoff. I could see a lot of voters saying, well, you know what? If they can't make the playoff, I'm at least voting for Diego Pavia for Heisman. Could easily happen. Give me third down is the padlock stat in this game. Both of them are top 12 offensively in third down. Both defenses are bottom half of the country in third down. Both of them are very comparable in turnover margin. Both of them are very comparable in penalties. And that's why the number is what it is. Tennessee is essentially favored by home field. I mean, maybe a half point additional here and there, but it's basically a pick them on a neutral field. And here we go. We tee it up Saturday, 3:30 Eastern on ESPN. The model, what does it think? Vanduul's got Tennessee minus two and a half. The model agrees. Very tight line here. Models got Tennessee -3. I feel magic this week. I think Vandy is going to go in there and get the win and I think they're going to make it very hard on the playoff committee. And I don't feel sorry for those people. But Vandy, if. Look, maybe they get locked out and I was looking at the playoff predictor. It was like a 50% shot. I think if they win that they make the playoff. But here's what you do. You make them tell you no. You go until they say, sorry, we don't have room for you. And then you let your league commissioner fight for you. And, you know, you let Clark Lee be devastated and have the press conference, but make them tell you no. Because you know what? Maybe they'll tell you yes. Maybe it'll be emphatic. You know, you don't have to win a close game. You guys can go in there and run it up. Hard to do, I know, but you're trying to accomplish something that's hard right now. So I'm taking Vanny to win there. I'll roll with my hometown team. We got more games here. I'm going to rush through. Not rush through. We're going to go. We're going to go. Hurry up here, though. Upset Alerts for Week 14, also known as rivalry week. We're going to start with one that's not a rivalry, but it huge game. Miami is favored by six and a half in a game where the kickoff temperature is going to be in the low 30s against a ranked team. What could possibly go wrong? Miami again -6 and a half at Pitt. College football playoff hopes on the line for Miami. Notre Dame just Went in there and pit a couple of weeks ago and beat him pretty good. A lot of folks are going to pay attention to how good Miami does. And then if Miami beats him worse than Notre Dame did, they'll just pivot to a new reason to keep Miami out of the playoffs. Because there's this cabal out there. If you've ever watched Blacklist, you know exactly what I mean. There's this anti Miami cabal that is hell bent on keeping them out no matter what. I mean, the last thing we want is for the head to head result to work its way into the equation. We cannot let people remember that those two teams played on the same field early in the season because, you know, it was early in the season. So I am concerned here. I don't like Miami in cold weather. I don't like Miami on the road all that much. This is a pressure spot. Pitt is top 20 pass Miami defense top 30. But Miami's defense is gettable through the air and this is not your grandfather's pit. So they got to throw the ball to win. This has got to be a Carson Beck game. Carson Beck can carve them up. They can absolutely do it. Miami can absolutely go in there and hang 40. Will Miami score more than the temperature on the thermometer? Will they? I'm. I got an 8 on the upset alert concern meter. The last time I saw Miami in person they were getting beat at smu. So yes, I have concern but I think Miami's gonna win the game. But I've got an 8 on the upset alert concern meter. Oregon. Yes, they played this week. Guys. Season didn't end last week. Look at that setting. Oh man. Husky Stadium. Oregon minus six and a half at Washington. It's a way too off the radar game to be a line under a touchdown and to be a rivalry game. It just doesn't feel like a letdown spot to me. For Oregon this is a big game. I mean they played USC last week, they beat usc. No one's overlooking this game. So if that's the quote unquote narrative that anyone's trying to push out there, find a new narrative. Washington could just beat Oregon. What do they do special? What is the thing that Washington could do? I'm short of winning the turnover battle. What is the thing that Washington could do that just gives Oregon fits? I had trouble finding that thing today. But it could be the cumulative effect of small margins here or there. Washington's good enough where they can compete in this game. Home field up there, man, I was up There the last time Oregon went in there. It's places insane now. DeBoer was the coach up there at that time. Well, now it's Jed Fish and they're looking to put an emphatic cap on the end of their season.
- [83:31]
I'm putting a seven and a half on this in terms of upset alert concern. I think it could be a competitive game. Oregon, I mean we've seen them on the road at Penn State, they needed overtime to win. There was a last second win at Iowa. So I mean they haven't gone on the road. Even against Northwestern they won. They didn't cover. You know, good teams win, great teams cover. Let's see at Rutgers they body bagged Rutgers. But then again, who's amongst us hasn't? So I think it could be a close game. I'm gonna put a seven and a half on it. Next up, I don't think this is going to be a close game.
- [84:03]
LSU is going to Oklahoma because legally they have to. The schedule says so. Oklahoma's favorite by 10 and a half. I hate the spot for LSU. I think the season is mailed in. It will be low scoring. Oklahoma doesn't really run it up offensively. Turnovers could happen. Like yeah, there's a path where LSU could win this. They're like 37 paths where Oklahoma could win it. Oklahoma's not getting God here. They're too close. They can smell it now. Unbelievable synergy with that team right now. Unbelievable chemistry. So look, they may not even cover, but I am told in order to win this game, LSU's got to have more points on the board than Oklahoma. And that's just simply not going to happen. Put me in any hype video you want to. I'm putting a three on this out of respect for the legacy of lsu. But this team I don't think is doing much against Oklahoma. They got to score. Nussmeier's not even playing by the way. Okay, Virginia Tech at Virginia. Virginia is a 9 1/2 point favorite. Both of them want to run the ball. Virginia top 25, run D. Virginia Tech, 73rd ranked run defense. I think that's the most important stat in this game. I think the will to win will be decidedly more on the side of Virginia than Virginia Tech. Virginia wins and they're in the ACC championship game. Guys, there are no more hypotheticals. There are no more do this and count on that to happen. Virginia wins and they're in it. Chandler Morris is back and I think that they are going to win this game. I Would probably pick them to cover if I had to. I'm gonna put a four on the upset alert concern meter. It is a rivalry game, but you know, contrary to popular belief, the better, the better teams normally win rivalry games too. Virginia's the better team next up in Atlanta, but not at Grant Field. Even though it technically is a Georgia Tech home game, they are playing in Mercedes Benz Stadium. Georgia 13 1/2 point favorite against Georgia Tech last year. This game went to 19 overtimes. It was a Haynes King legacy game. I have never seen a quarterback more valiant in defeat than Haynes King was against Georgia last year. I'm shocked he's still alive after what he endured. But it was a legacy game. He needs 2.0 this week. And frankly, even if Haynes King has really good numbers, I don't know how Tech keeps Georgia under 40.
- [86:19]
So it's just profiling is that kind of game for me. Georgia very well could play in the same building again eight days later. I think they play this game on a Friday, so it's a two and a half for me. I think Georgia Tech probably had about 11 weeks worth of gas in the tank and the tank is a little bit close to empty right now.
- [86:37]
They're not getting Georgia. I'll give it. I'll give it a solid two and a half out of respect for the rivalry. I don't think that's happening. Last year's wake up call withstanding, I don't think it's happening. Ole Miss Egg Bowl Friday. Ole Miss minus seven and a half against Mississippi State. Has anyone talked about the game this week? It's Everything but the Game. You remember that song, Missing Everything but the Girl I think was the name of that band. The acoustic version is really good. You normally hear the techno version anyway. Bradley used to work at Hot Topic. He knows what I mean. Both of these teams are off a buy this late in the season. We got two teams off a by number 32 rushing offense versus number 121 rushing defense. That's the score here. Don't overthink it. Lane likes to throw the ball. You know what he really likes to do is win. And Ole Miss can run the ball for probably about a quarter mile in this game.
- [87:29]
C
They should.
- [87:30]
D
It should become academic. I will put a six on it in terms of upset alert concern because there are all kinds of distractions that could crop up. Lane's done really good at keeping that team focused throughout this whole thing. This is not the first week we're talking about Lane, Kiff and maybe leaving Ole Miss, so that team's been pretty dialed in down the stretch here. It's a rivalry game. Yeah. Technically anything could happen. Blah blah blah. Copy paste. I will put a six on this one Friday. I will be tuned in. I want to tell you we are very proud of what's been happening over at the Pate State store. I can confidently tell you that the Christmas merch, the Tis the Season collection, I had high expectations for how much that stuff would move. It has safely surpassed my expectations. And it is late November, so there's still a ton of time. We got the Merry Christmas, you filthy casual pull over there. It's flying. The Tis the Season to be chuggy sweater, which is my personal favorite only because Jesse came up with the other one. Unconfirmed report there. I'm not. Even though I said it, I'm not confirming it because I truthfully want credit for most of the good ideas. PaintStatematerial.com like a lot of you, you have like loved ones and you know they watch the show and you have no idea what to get them for Christmas. I do go to the store. It's that easy. Look, let me get out of the way. There's the QR code. I don't think it's a virus if you're not sure. Paintstatematerial.com Appreciate it. I need to update my playoff predictions if that's okay with everyone. And we were right before Thanksgiving. We just got the new committee rankings dropped in our lap. I feel that it is my duty now that we have new playoff rankings, to update my playoff prediction. And what I want to do is I want to remind you this is kind of the format I like to do. I like to remind you what I'm thinking in each conference. Kind of. Kind of hurry up here really quick in the sec, I'm not going to come off my prediction. It's Alabama over A and M until otherwise stated. This could blow up Saturday. Could blow up either way. Saturday. Georgia could be in this game. There's a world where Ole Miss is in this game. Right now. I'm sticking with Bama. A and M. That line would be a and m -1 and a half according to FanDuel. By the way, I would take Bama over A and M. Still give me Ohio State over Indiana. Now some of you who were watching the entire live show, you noticed I picked Michigan to beat Ohio State. That is a principled stance I am taking. The model overwhelmingly thinks Ohio State is going to be in the Big Ten title game and that they would win over Indiana. So I'll stick with that for now. When it comes to my prediction, I'm either guaranteed to be right or guaranteed to be wrong, depending on your perspective on that approach. Texas Tech against Brigham Young in the Big 12 championship game is what I'm going to stick with. I will take Texas Tech over Brigham Young. I'm sticking with that. ACC championship game has changed every week. I challenge anyone who picked SMU over Virginia in the preseason or even three weeks ago to step forward because that's what I have now. I have SMU over Virginia. And out of just curiosity I asked Fanduel who would be favored against those teams in Penn State. One of those teams is probably going to win the ACC championship. It's either SMU or Virginia. Do you understand? Penn State would be over a field goal favorite against either one of them. That's the current state of the acc. I digress out of those results and the way that I think the at larges would fall. Here is my current seeding for the playoff. I'd have Ohio State the Big Ten champ at number one, Indiana Big Ten runner up number two.
- [91:10]
If Alabama wins the SEC championship. There's no question about this, they're vaulting into the top four. I'd put them at number three and I don't think Texas A and M is falling out of it. So I'd put them at number four. So we got the Big Ten couple and the SEC couple in there. Those are the teams that get the first round buys. Important to note even though I don't have it listed here. If A and M were to beat Alabama, I think Texas Tech's getting the four spot and they'd get a first round buy if they win the Big 12. So I got Big 12 champ Texas Tech at five right now. That's very important for seeding and for matchups in the first round rather. Georgia at 6, Oregon at 7, Ole Miss at 8, Oklahoma at 9 and Notre Dame at 10. I think the strength of schedule would bump Notre Dame down there to 10. This is with minimal chaos by the way. Any kind of added chaos could throw this all in a blender. I got SMU winning the ACC, they're the 11 seed and I've got John Sumrall in Tulane winning the American and being the highest ranked G5 conference champ. And I've got Tulane at 12. Here's what that would do to the bracket. That would give us paper pop hand drawn bracket here in my hand. That would give us Oklahoma at Ole Miss in the first round. That would give us Tulane at Texas Tech in the first round. That would give us Notre Dame at Oregon in the first round. And that would give us SMU at Georgia in the first round. I would take Ole Miss to beat Oklahoma again because they already beat him in Norman. And so we're trying to find out first off who's coaching Ole Miss. Secondly, how deep in the playoffs can Ole Miss go? Well, I at least have him go into the second round against Ohio State. I would take Texas Tech over to Lane in the first round. They're in Lubbock. They go on to face Texas A and M. Give me Oregon over Notre Dame. That game's in Eugene. That's tough, man. That's a, that's a peaking Oregon team, by the way. I'm counting on Oregon to be playing their best ball and to be the healthiest they've been. And getting the home playoff game there I think matters a whole lot. So I would take Oregon over Notre Dame and I would take Georgia over smu. Second round games. Ohio State over Ole Miss. I would take A and M over Texas Tech. Give me Oregon over Indiana. Again, this requires Oregon getting healthy and hot at the right time. And I would take Alabama over Georgia.
- [93:37]
I would take Alabama over Oregon. That mainly is because like I've told you, I predicted Alabama to win the national title in the preseason. I have to like definitively be convinced that I'm wrong to come off of that. So if I had to pick this thing from scratch, probably wouldn't have Bama over Georgia right now. Probably wouldn't have Bama over Oregon right now. But I'm not picking it from scratch. Where people remember sound bites and snapshots and just in the semi unlikely event that I'm right, I just want the snapshot to be remembered. Give me Ohio State over Texas A and M and I'll keep Alabama over Ohio State national title. Although, like I will fully admit, if Ohio State's good enough to get to the national title game, it's going to be really tough to see anyone beating them because if they get to the national title game, that means everything we thought about them, everything we saw from them this year was right. And I don't really care if it's Bama or whoever standing in their way. I would actually like Georgia matching up with them the best right now. But that's the way the bracket is falling. A couple of more things here and we will be on our way. Jesse, we could have gone two hours tonight. We are. Well, we're not lucky. You guys are lucky. I've got really good news. I'm about to give away a ton of money. Yeah, they got your attention. Well, fanduel is going to give it away for me. So we do this occasionally. It's a reward for people who are watching the entire show. I'm going to give you 24 hours. So even if you're watching the replay, don't freak out. Look in the live chat right now or look in the show description. Whenever you're watching the show in the next 24 hours, there's a form there. Fill it out. 25 of you are about to get $100 in bonus bets dropped in your account. We're going to give you about 24 hours so you don't have to hurry. You don't have to trip over everyone. Do it. But fill that form out if you're of course a FanDuel customer. If you're not, sign up FanDuel.com Josh Pate and then fill out the form. And we're going to just 25 of you will check your account sometime tomorrow or the next day and there will be 100 extra dollars in there in bonus bets. And you'll wonder where did this come from? It came from us. It came from Pate State by way of FanDuel and we appreciate them and we appreciate you guys. They are the exclusive odds provider of the show and we make them give you free stuff as much as possible as often as possible.
- [95:51]
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Must be 21 + and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18/ plus and present in DC first online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY next HOPE NY in New York.
- [96:35]
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I am going to give you three more best bets on the Ramen Noodle Express here. One of them has already been posted. Missouri -2 and a half. Okay, the next three that we're going to add tonight. Coastal Carolina -22 and a half against James Madison.
- [96:50]
Love Illinois -6 and a half this week. And I'm going to take Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham, or is anyone listening? Kenny watches the show. I'm going to take Arizona State. All of a sudden, a ranked matchup against Arizona. So in conclusion, because the graphic didn't work there, Missouri minus two and a half. Coastal Carolina plus 22 and a half Illinois minus six and a half. Arizona State plus one and a half. We will probably do Friday night lines on Thursday night. I'll probably do it on Thanksgiving night and I will do that because a lot of games are on Friday. So pay attention to the socials and if you're unfamiliar with what that is, it is something I do exclusively on Instagram Live. It's where I pull out the model. The live chats really lit up. We have a couple thousand people watching and I just, I basically like riff on what the model says about games that we're not betting or maybe games that we are betting. I always add best bets during Friday night lines. Every week this year we've added something so you got to be watching that to get the full card. I will tell you when we're going to do it sometime Wednesday or Thursday. So be following on the socials at Josh Patecfb and I'll let you know. And then you'll see us on the sideline at Jordan Harris Stadium Saturday and I'll get you a lot of good behind the scenes exclusive content there. And then we'll be back up here Sunday to talk about it all. Sunday's going to be an explosive show. I'm just telling you. Go ahead and get ready for it. We are going to be reacting to rivalry game outcomes. We'll have conference championship matchups set. Coaches will have been fired. Coaches are going to be hired. I think announcements are coming. Some announcements are going to come before Sunday, so check the channel because like if, if LSU were to make an announcement before Sunday, I'll probably put a reaction video up on the channel. Just there's, there's no predicting what's about to happen. It has never been more important for you to be subscribed to the channel and get 10 of your friends, not even 5. Get 10 of your friends to subscribe as well. We're right on the doorstep of 500k. Appreciate you guys so much. From all of us to you. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving. Remember, remember, we don't have to stuff ourselves until we're in a food coma. You can back away. I've got some very interesting literature. Instagram reels that I can send some of you. If you need to be fat shamed at the right time on Thanksgiving, I can take care of it for you, but we need to do that privately. For producer Jesse for director Bradley, I'm Josh Pate. We'll see you back here Sunday, but keep it locked because something can happen at any moment. Until then, take care and God bless.
- [99:40]
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Must be 21 + and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC first online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincut or visit MDG in Maryland, hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York.
- [100:25]
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Ah, greetings from my bath festive friends. The holidays are overwhelming, but I'm tackling this season with PayPal and making the most of my money getting 5% cash back when I pay in 4. No fees, no interest. I used it to get this portable spa with jets. Now the bubbles can cling to my sculpted but pruny body. Make the most of your money this holiday with PayPal. Save the offer in the app ends1231 see paypal.com promoter points can be redeemed for cash and more. Paying for subject to terms and approval.
- [100:53]
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PayPal Inc. And MLS 910457 okay, only.
- [100:57]
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10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line, but first.
- [101:14]
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There the last one.
- [101:18]
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Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that refreshes.
- [101:25]
Enterprise leaders are revolutionizing their marketing operations with AWS AI. This proven technology turns resource intensive advertising processes into intelligent autonomous systems that deliver real time optimization on a global scale. Amazon's own transformation journey shows the true power of enterprise AI innovation. And now your organization can tap into the same technology that drives Amazon's advertising success. AWS AI Where Advertising Meets Intelligence Discover the Amazon ad story@aws.com AI Our-Story this.
- [102:02]
A
Is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.