Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: CFP Rankings Reaction + Rivalry Week Predictions & Coaching Search Intel
Date: November 26, 2025
Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)

Episode Overview

This episode is a packed pre-Thanksgiving edition featuring Josh Pate’s reaction to the just-released College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, in-depth analysis of the forthcoming rivalry week matchups, intel on ongoing and upcoming coaching searches, and his latest playoff predictions. Josh, live from downtown Nashville, delivers his signature candid takes, challenges prevailing narratives, and supports his arguments with stats, model projections, and notable “JP Poll” power ratings.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immediate Reaction to the CFP Rankings

• Josh’s Discontent with the Discourse
  Although there wasn't much movement in the rankings, Josh criticizes the emerging narratives and overreliance on the committee’s “eyeball test,” calling instead for consistency and defined parameters in team selection.
• Quote:
  “If you think head to head matters a lot, good. Define it and stick to it. Don’t define it, and then come time to stick to it, say, ‘Ah, yeah, but my eyeballs are telling me something different, brother.’” (06:20)
• He highlights the precarious position of multiple two-loss teams (Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Miami, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Utah), and pushes back on the notion that the system is a “mess” needing immediate expansion.
• Josh remains firmly in favor of playoff “scarcity” as a driver of value.

2. The Miami vs. Notre Dame Head-to-Head Conundrum

• Josh critiques the committee and media for dismissing Miami’s earlier head-to-head victory over Notre Dame, despite their resumes converging late in the season.
• He warns, “If their resumes are comparable, stop overthinking the room… They played a football game.” (10:30)
• “I literally think Notre Dame would get bumped out of the playoff before the SEC runner up does.” (14:47)

3. SEC Playoff Scenarios & Alabama/Ole Miss Outlook

• Highlights the absurdity of penalizing an SEC runner-up (e.g., Alabama) for losing the conference championship.
• Discusses Ole Miss's precarious position as the lowest-ranked one-loss Power Five team, the significance of the Egg Bowl, and the impact of potential coaching changes.

4. Big 12 Scenarios: Texas Tech’s Path

• Josh contends Texas Tech, if it wins the Big 12, should claim the 4-seed and get a first-round bye, countering projections that favor at-large SEC picks.

5. Sample Playoff Projected Spreads (Via FanDuel, 18:10)

• Tulane at Texas Tech: TTU -21.5
• Notre Dame at Oklahoma: Notre Dame -4
• Miami at Oregon: Oregon -7.5
• Alabama at Ole Miss: Pick’em

Rivalry Week Predictions & Deep Dives

6. Ohio State vs. Michigan (“The Game”)

(24:40 – 37:40)

• Recounts the shocking result from the previous year and deciphers key stats:
  • Winner of rushing yards has claimed every meeting since 2001.
  • Ohio State’s defense: #1 against “cat buster runs” (30+ yards).
  • Michigan’s offense: In the top 5 for cat buster runs.
  • Prediction: Despite all rational factors pointing to Ohio State, Josh goes with Michigan:
    “Until further notice, Michigan will win this game. Michigan covers. Michigan Moneyline. And look, if that’s what it takes for Ryan Day and company to win this game is for me to pick against them, then I’ll be happy to take the fall for you.” (36:50)

7. Alabama at Auburn (The Iron Bowl)

(37:40 – 46:36)

• Dissects the “haunted” narrative of Jordan-Hare Stadium, noting Bama’s resilience in tough environments.
• Key matchup: Alabama’s potent passing offense vs. Auburn’s weak pass D.
• Josh points to turnovers as the potential “paper lie.”
• Model has Bama -8 (FanDuel: -5.5); Josh picks Alabama to win and cover.

8. Texas A&M at Texas

(59:54 – 67:46)

• Highlights QB duel between Arch Manning (Texas) and Marcel Reed (A&M). Notes A&M’s versatility in game scripts and Texas’ need for a signature win under Sarkisian.
• Texas's defensive struggle against explosive passing could be the decider.
• Prediction: A&M to win and cover in Austin.

9. Vandy at Tennessee: “Spoiler” Alert

(75:20 – 78:14)

• Diego Pavia’s Heisman campaign is in focus with this pivotal, playoff-implicated matchup.
• Both teams have weak pass defenses and strong third-down offenses.
• Josh calls for Vandy magic and picks them to win, potentially creating playoff complications.

10. Other Rivalry/Upset Alert Games

• Miami at Pitt: Miami favored by 6.5, but cold weather, pressure, and Pitt’s passing attack are significant concerns (8/10 upset meter).
• Oregon at Washington: Oregon -6.5; tough test at Husky Stadium—7.5/10 on upset alert.
• LSU at Oklahoma: Oklahoma -10.5, “season is mailed in” for LSU, low concern for an upset.
• Virginia Tech at Virginia: Virginia -9.5, win-and-in for the ACC championship.
• Georgia Tech vs. Georgia: Georgia -13.5, little upset concern.
• Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State (Egg Bowl): Ole Miss -7.5; focus on distractions and Lane Kiffin rumors.

Coaching Carousel Intel

(52:04 – 59:54)

• Lane Kiffin:
  • “If I had to guess… I think he’s the next head coach at LSU… It’s not decided until he looks Jimmy Sexton in the eye and says, ‘Sign it. Do it. Pull the trigger.’” (52:30)
• Florida and LSU:
  • If Kiffin goes to LSU, Florida may turn to John Sumrall, Eli Drinkwitz (though not preferred by fans), or Jed Fisch (especially if Fisch upsets Oregon).
  • “You float the name…the folks wouldn’t want. And then you circle back around, you go hire Jed Fisch.” (54:34)
• Oklahoma State:
  • Eric Morris hired; chose over Arkansas offer.
• Arkansas:
  • Wants Alex Golesh, but his availability and Arkansas’s attractiveness are in doubt.
• Penn State:
  • Quiet, tight-lipped search. A “big name off everyone’s radar” might be in play (per Adam Brennaman), but Josh won’t speculate.
• Auburn:
  • John Sumrall remains the presumed favorite, with DJ Durkin as a wildcard—search praised as “seamless and high-level.”

JP Poll Power Ratings (Not Rankings)

(69:07 – 72:44)

• Shows who’d be favored on a neutral field vs. the standard CFP rankings:
  • 1. Ohio State
  • 2. Georgia
  • 3. Texas A&M
  • 4. Indiana
  • 5. Alabama
  • 6. Oregon
  • 7. Notre Dame
  • 8. Ole Miss
  • 9. Texas Tech
  • 10. Texas
  • (Miami, Oklahoma, Utah, Vandy, BYU, etc. follow)

“The model, that’s why it does not give up on talented rosters.” (70:16)
Notable that preseason model projection for Texas/A&M was Texas -10; now, A&M is a short favorite, illustrating season-long line moves.

Playoff & New Year’s Six Predictions

(87:29 – 93:37)

• SEC: Sticking with Alabama over Texas A&M.
• Big Ten: Ohio State over Indiana (despite picking Michigan in The Game—see above).
• Big 12: Texas Tech over BYU.
• ACC: SMU over Virginia.
• Playoff Seeds: 1. Ohio State, 2. Indiana, 3. Alabama, 4. Texas A&M.
  • At-large teams: Texas Tech, Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, SMU, Tulane.
• Bracket predictions:
  • QF: Oklahoma at Ole Miss, Tulane at Texas Tech, Notre Dame at Oregon, SMU at Georgia.
  • Final: Alabama over Ohio State for the National Championship (though Josh says he’d lean Ohio State if he re-picked it, due to preseason Bama pick he’s “not coming off”).

Best Bets – “Ramen Noodle Express”

(96:35 – End)

• Missouri -2.5
• Coastal Carolina +22.5
• Illinois -6.5
• Arizona State +1.5

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Are you smoking meth? In no world is that how that should work…" – On ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win (12:03)
• “I don’t care if it’s Bama or whoever’s standing in their way. I would actually like Georgia matching up with them the best right now.” – On the National Title matchup (93:30)
• “I’ve tried to ride with you the past four years; you guys have done this to me. Michigan has done this to me as well… I don’t have a ton of ammunition for Michigan right now. You think I had reasons to pick them last year? No. They won anyway.” (36:44)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Show start & overview: 02:05
• CFP Rankings initial discourse: 04:30
• Miami–Notre Dame "Head-to-Head" Debate: 09:43
• SEC/Alabama discussion: 13:50
• Big 12/Texas Tech scenario: 16:59
• Betting spreads for playoff projections: 18:42
• Ohio State–Michigan breakdown: 24:40
• Alabama–Auburn (Iron Bowl) analysis: 37:40
• Coaching search intel: 52:04
• Texas A&M–Texas breakdown: 59:54
• JP Poll Power Rankings: 69:07
• Playoff predictions: 87:29
• Upset Alerts/Rivalry picks: 78:14 – 87:29
• Ramen Noodle Express bets: 96:35

Episode Tone

• Frank & energetic: Josh is candid, sometimes irreverent (“Are you smoking meth?”—12:03)
• Stat- and model-driven: He grounds takes in data, dismissing “hot takes” and arbitrary eyeball judgments
• Playful with running gags (“subs for Bradley,” inside jokes about “black magic” at Auburn, ribbing himself for perennial mis-picks in The Game)
• Insider intel: Offers sourced coaching search updates and a peek behind the curtain of real-time rumor vs. fact-making

This summary provides Josh’s essential insights and the episode’s top storylines for fans who missed the live show or want to reference key talking points leading into rivalry week and the upcoming CFP decisions.