← Josh Pate's College Football Show
Josh Pate's College Football Show
CFP Rankings Reaction + Week 12 Prediction Show & Coaching Search Latest
01:21:44
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Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human limu game.
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Josh Pate
And Doug, here we have the limu emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us?
- [00:25]
IBM Executive
Cut the camera.
- [00:26]
Josh Pate
They see us. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty, Liberty Liberty Unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. Affiliates excludes Massachusetts.
- [00:35]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [00:38]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [00:41]
Matt Rogers
Hey, Bowen. It's gift season.
- [00:43]
Josh Pate
Ugh.
- [00:43]
Bowen Yang
Stressing me out. Why are the people I love so hard to shop for?
- [00:47]
Matt Rogers
Probably because they only make boring gift guides that are totally uninspired. Except for the guide we made in.
- [00:54]
Bowen Yang
Partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts mean incredible value.
- [00:57]
Matt Rogers
It's giving gifts with categories like best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is stiletto or.
- [01:05]
Bowen Yang
Best gifts for me that were so.
- [01:07]
Josh Pate
Thoughtful I really shouldn't have.
- [01:08]
Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com and.
- [01:11]
Bowen Yang
Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
- [01:14]
Josh Pate
So let me get this straight. Your company has data here, there, and everywhere, but your AI can't use the data because it's here, there, and everywhere? Seems like something's missing.
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Bowen Yang
Every business has unique data.
- [01:30]
Josh Pate
IBM helps your AI access your data wherever it lives to change how you do business. Let's create Smile to Business IBM.
- [01:55]
So I'm sitting there a little while ago. I'm watching the playoff rankings come out. I'm sure everyone has a lot of takeaways from that. I do, too. We're going to leave the show with it. One thing I don't know if you caught. Did you hear Heather Dennis talk about Georgia Tech? Because I heard something kind of bothered me a little bit. She talked about how the committee is well aware that a bad call gave Georgia Tech a win. Now, that in and of itself is true. Okay, that did happen. Officials flat out handed what should have been a Wake Forest win to Georgia Tech. And here's what I'm asking. Do we really want to go down a road where the playoff committee is assignating wins that were losses because they perceive bad officiating to be the culprit? Because I think Auburn could be a solid 10 and 2 team if we're going to go down the road. I think Hugh Freeze could be rehired at Auburn if we're going down that road, according to what the committee says. The reality is so, yeah, I didn't like that all that much. We're jam packed. We're high atop a somewhat warmer downtown, Nashville, Tennessee on this Tuesday, November 11th, the year of our Lord 2025. The rankings just got released. I've got what, Jesse? 37 thoughts, maybe 40 thoughts. I got a lot of thoughts on it. We've got full Week 12 predictions on the show tonight. It is a big, big weekend. A lot of movement about to happen. JP Poll that's on the show tonight. I've got coaching intel. It sounds like Auburn's making a move. Sounds like LSU needs to make a move, but they can't without getting their affairs in order down there. And that hasn't happened yet. And there's Florida. Florida, the old shark fin just offshore, just patiently waiting. I got added best bets. We got a lot to get to. They're watching us in Fort Payne, Alabama, Hayward, California, Sioux City, Iowa, and Grove City, Utah. Thank you guys so much.
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I'm also gonna let you know if you're putting Marcel Reid in the chat, I'm banning you from the channel. So that's your final warning on that. I bet him. I bet him. To win the Heisman today. No one needs to sell Marcel Reed to me anyway. You have been warned, Jesse. You have the ban hammer. Get ready to swing it. So the College Football Playoff rankings just got released. Uh, Reese Davis talked about this. But I don't care that Reese Davis talked about it. Cause he's right about it. So I'm gonna lead the show with it. There is a doomsday scenario out there for the acc. We see the iceberg, that's the good news. We can avoid it as a conference. This is me and the acc. We're speaking amongst ourselves right now. I've never even called myself ACC pate, but there's a first time for everything. We can't let this happen. We can't let this happen. What is this? What are we talking about? What is this? All right, there is a world where the ACC misses the playoff, which was once thought to be impossible, but that was a whole different world. That was like three weeks ago. Now it's possible. Here's what needs to happen. Duke wins the acc.
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That's really what needs to happen. And then a couple of these teams fall. Here is the big concern right now. Miami is the highest ranked ACC team. They're not going to play for the conference title. Their best shot is to be an at large team, which I think they have some possibility for. And I'll Talk about that later. Then you got Georgia Tech at 16. I think they could go and play for the conference title. So let's just bookmark them. Virginia, they're limping right now. Louisville, they're limping right now. Pitts at 22. They play Notre Dame this weekend. Also. Some of these teams play each other. So let me just paint a picture for you because I know you're thinking in your head, he's crazy. The ACC champ is guaranteed a spot in the playoff. No, they're not. They're not. It's just that 99% of the time, all of the Power Four conference champs would lock down spots in the playoff. Here's the rule. The rule is there are five automatic spots given to the five highest ranked FBs conference champs. Now, it was thought when they constructed the playoff, we don't need to say the Highest ranked Power 4 champs. It just goes without saying conference champs in Power 4 leagues are always going to trump conference champs from G5 leagues. That's just always going to happen. Well, yeah, we thought so. Here's the problem. Maybe not. Duke is 8 and 4 or could be 8 and 4. They're 5 and 4 right now. They've got three more games. Only one of their losses is a conference loss.
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So they have to play Virginia, North Carolina and Wake Forest, their final three games. Looks like all three of those games are at home. By the way, Duke could go to Charlotte to play for a conference title. At 8 and 4, as of this moment, it looks like Georgia Tech is their most likely opponent. What if they go and they do that and they play Georgia Tech in Charlotte and they beat Georgia Tech? Georgia Tech's going to be out. They're not going to be an at large. Would Duke. Here's the question. Would Duke be one of the five highest ranked conference champs? You may think, oh, yeah, I don't know that they would. I certainly don't think that they'll be ahead of usf. Let's say, if USF wins, the American, and I don't know that they'd be ahead of James Madison if James Madison wins the Sun Belt. And once we swallow that harsh potential reality, we ask, okay, well, what is the ACC's best shot to get a team in? It would probably be Miami. Which brings me to my next point. We get off the doomsday scenario for just a second. Miami's got some oxygen. But I don't know if you were listening. I was listening to the playoff committee chair talk on the broadcast and they were asking him, hey, how do you perceive the acc? And he sort of showed the committee's hand a little bit. He said outside of Miami, this league has no good out of conference wins to hang its hat on.
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So it's up to you. Miami is what I'm saying. There could be a distinct possibility here. It's up to Miami. Miami has some oxygen. I do think there was a little correction in the rankings tonight. They got bumped up three spots. I do think there was a little correction because they were too low last week. First reaction we had on the show last week, Miami seems a little bit too low. It's almost like people are taking their frustration out on them via the ranking. So they're 15th right now. Look at the graphic in front of you if you're listening on podcast. Well, I just told you, Miami's 15th. They need to get up to the number 10 spot basically for an at large spot because you have to assume a couple of those 11 and 12 spots maybe for the the conference tie ins. Like the 12 spots going to go to the G5 team probably. So let's just think this through here. Let's name the teams in front of Miami. Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt's got to go play Tennessee. Vanderbilt very well could get knocked out. Utah. In fact, I wrote this down. Utah plays our number 30, 31 and 33 teams in the JP poll, which I'm going to talk about later. So Utah's got three tough opponents left. They play both the Kansas schools. Who else do they play, Jesse? They got one other opponent. Utah's got three like legit opponents. So Utah could lose. Brigham Young is sitting there at 12. They've still got to play Cincinnati. And even if they get through that, they could go to the conference title game and lose. Let's put a pin in that because I have a lot of differing opinions in my own head about how the committee may handle a Brigham Young team that loses their second game in the conference title game. OU is at 11. Oh, you plays Alabama this weekend. Texas is at 10. Texas plays Georgia. Texas plays Texas A and M. Notre Dame's got PIT on the road this weekend. Point being, I mean, Oregon's got USC still. Oregon's got Minnesota this week. They got Washington at the end of the season. All these teams ahead of Miami have losable and in some cases multiple losable games coming up. Question number one, is Miami going to take care of business? That's not a given. That is not a guarantee. But let's assume for the sake of argument, they do a lot more oxygen, a lot More life has been breathed into the once thought to be dead chest of Miami. So what I'm saying is let's take care of business. That's what I'm saying. Texas Tech jumped up to number six. Okay, I've got a thought here and I did a straw poll around the office and it's like 50, 50. You guys can tell me what you think about this. I think Texas Tech, if they went out, has positioned themselves to grab the number five seed. I do believe that if Texas Tech wins out, and that includes going to Arlington, going to Dallas and winning the Big 12 championship game, I believe the added data point of winning that conference championship by a team that's already perceived to be well Inside the top 10 is going to be enough to jump them over like Georgia's there right now. I believe it would be enough to put Texas Tech there. It's a big deal because yeah, you're going to get a home playoff game no matter whether you're five or you're six or you're seven and you're eight. But the number five seed, like right now, it's Georgia, that's the team that in all likelihood gets to play the G5 team at home as more than a two touchdown favorite. It's a very enviable spot. It's not a guarantee of a win, but it's a very enviable spot. Whereas if you drop to six, it becomes a little more of a crapshoot because you got no clue who could be the 11 seed. So I think Texas Tech is in a good position. Now McElroy brought something up tonight and it's a bridge that's a little bit too far for me at the moment, but I don't think it's crazy. He said Forget about the 5 seed. Could Texas Tech be in position to potentially grab one of the top four seeds now? That's where people are going to have problems. I'm telling you, that's where people are going to have problems. Because if these top four right here, if Ohio State and Indiana went out and they go play in Indianapolis, the loser of that game is going to believe it is their birthright to still maintain a top four spot. I'm not going to be here to disagree with them. And, and if Texas A and M and Alabama win out and they go to Atlanta, the winner of course gets a first round buy. The loser is also going to think it their birthright to maintain a top four seed and get a first round buy. And again, I'm going to agree with them. But there is going to be an argument out there that Texas Tech's good enough as a conference champ to jump up inside that top four and grab one of the first round buys. Now that's going to be a huge debate. If it does play out that way, I still think we need to see the games play out before you really know. Like I always go back to, I think it was the first year of the 14 playoff. I think that was the year that Ohio State went into conference championship Saturday. And the thinking was they're on the outside looking in. I think this was 2014. And then they just skull drug Wisconsin. I will never forget this because it was our first introduction to sort of how the 14 playoff era was going to work. And it went from Ohio State's on the outside looking in no matter what they do today to, oh, they just won 59 to nothing. There's no way we can leave them out of the playoff. And it happened over the span of a few hours. Just like the drum beat went from soft to deafening to Ohio State's end to Ohio State goes on and wins the whole thing.
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That kind of stuff can happen. Point being in the committee room, how would the committee handle Brigham Young if they win their remaining games and then lose another game to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game? And I want you to think this through with me. Last year SMU was they were like 9, 10, somewhere like that. They went to Charlotte, they lost a competitive conference championship game. The committee refused to drop them out. The thinking there, which is sound, it's logical, was if you're already inside the playoff bubble once your regular season ends and you've earned the right to go play in a conference championship game, no matter if you lose there or not, we should not punish you for earning the right to play an additional game just because you lost that game. Because you got teams like Notre Dame who are sitting at home because they don't play in a conference, and then you got other teams like number eight, Oregon, let's just say, who didn't earn the right. So therefore they enjoy the comfort that they're not going to drop. You shouldn't have to suffer a drop just because you played an additional game and lost. Well, the thinking is already crystallized after one year. Since they didn't drop SMU last year, there's no way they're never going to drop anyone. That may be the case. I'm just suggesting, might we want to pump the brakes a little bit on assuming that we know how steadfast that committee is in that train of thought because here is something that could happen and what I'm about to say should not happen. Let me be on record, my opinion is what I'm about to say should never enter the equation. But these are people and there's a lot of money on the line. We watched SMU get benefit of the doubt last year. We watched them not get punished and not dropped out and they got sent to Happy Valley and they got smoked in the first round of the playoff. And you remember what the talk was just as well as I do. Everyone was screaming, see smu, they didn't deserve a spot to begin with. I disagreed with it. I thought the committee got it right. I thought SMU should have been in. It didn't matter if they lost by 100. They belonged in over Alabama, they belonged in over South Carolina, they belonged in over Ole Miss. That was my opinion before the game. That was my opinion after the game. I'm not on the committee this year. And all I'm saying is if Brigham Young were to go and they finish 11 and 2, but they suffer another double digit loss, three possession type loss, might the committee look at them? If you got a Miami floating there who finished the season strong and say, we're going to put Miami in over them, maybe it shouldn't happen. I'm just saying I don't think it's the craziest concept in the world to consider that it might happen. Now we hit up fanduel, we're just, we're just out there on the horn with fanduel as the committee is releasing their rankings and then we're just penciling in the bracket. And what I like to do with FanDuel is I like to say, guys, we don't have to wait until these games happen. We can just go ahead and pretend they're going to happen. And they're like, okay, what do you want? All right, well, what I want is I want to know what the lines on these games would be. So they go.
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And they spit them out just like the model. And FanDuel got us hypothetical lines on all the projected first round games. So here's what they would be. USF at Georgia. Georgia would be favored by 17 and a half. Yes, friends, that's a playoff game. Take it up with the committee. Not me. Notre Dame at Oregon. Oregon would be a short 1 1/2 point favorite. Miami at Texas Tech. Can you imagine? That would be like the Hillary Clinton gif. She walks in a random kitchen, eyes wide open. Can you imagine Miami folks showing up in Lubbock, that was like Texas folks showing up in Starkville the other day. Just eyes wide. What, what is this? Are we on the moon? Miami would be a five point dog at Texas Tech and then Texas at Ole Miss. How about Ole miss favored by 4 which implies that also be favored on a neutral field. Now those are your current hypothetical lines for projected first round games. Yeah, there is a lot of movement that's about to happen this weekend. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome into the show. Happy to have you with us. If you're new around here, thank you for watching. It's college football all year round. I ask humbly, humbly but forcefully that you look down there at that little subscribe button and click it. It is free. That's the last you'll ever hear of. It doesn't sign you up for anything but it really helps us continue to do the show free of corporate interference. Look at that. There's no corporate overlord over this show. It's just, it's our show. There it is written right there. It's our show because of you guys. I appreciate it so much. Quick trip is fueling us down to Athens, Georgia this Saturday. Texas at Georgia 7:30 kickoff there on ABC. We will be there. Laura Rutledge is even going to be there. That's how you know it's a big game. I mean Chris is there and Kirk is there and Holly's there, but Laura Rutledge gets brought in extra special time. Quick trip fueling our trip down to Athens. And I also want you to know I have it on good authority maybe a little quick trip event there in Athens, maybe outside of the Miller Learning center. Maybe from 3:30 to 7:30. Kevin Butler may be there signing autographs. Especially later in the day. Free Coke floats. Yes, all that's really happening. So our good Quick Trip friends are going to be there on campus. They don't go to many Camp I during the season, but this is a campus that they will be at. And also just a little FYI, I am told, because I have access to the data that the fall don't lie Tour Athens, Georgia Edition, which is available for one week only is flying off the shelves at patestatematerial.com Will it beat the numbers our Lubbock T shirt did last week? Cause the Lubbock shirt is our best seller ever. So our balls are in your court down in Athens. Our balls are in your court.
- [19:26]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [19:30]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang From Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [19:33]
Matt Rogers
Hey, Bowen, it's gift season.
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Josh Pate
Ugh.
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Bowen Yang
Stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me?
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Josh Pate
Exactly, honey.
- [19:41]
Matt Rogers
I'm easy. But you're right, holiday gifting is stressful.
- [19:44]
Bowen Yang
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
- [19:46]
Matt Rogers
Wait, what about the guide we made.
- [19:48]
Bowen Yang
In partnership with Marshalls where premium gifts mean incredible value?
- [19:52]
Matt Rogers
It's Giving Gifts, a series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
- [19:58]
Bowen Yang
Yeah. Cause if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
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Podcast Announcer
Right?
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Matt Rogers
How about something for the people who.
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Bowen Yang
Actually surprise you with categories like best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto. Psst. She wants a pair of stilettos.
- [20:12]
Matt Rogers
Or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful, I really shouldn't have dying.
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Bowen Yang
To see what those are.
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Matt Rogers
And you won't believe their prices.
- [20:19]
Bowen Yang
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
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Matt Rogers
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
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Bowen Yang
Honestly, this is the guide for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
- [20:29]
Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's giving gifts.
- [20:33]
Bowen Yang
Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
- [20:36]
Josh Pate
Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast.
- [20:38]
Bowen Yang
Smart talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman.
- [20:43]
Josh Pate
And CE Arvind Krishna, and I asked.
- [20:45]
Bowen Yang
Him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
- [20:52]
IBM Executive
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive.
- [21:23]
Josh Pate
Yeah.
- [21:24]
Podcast Announcer
Wow.
- [21:25]
IBM Executive
So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
- [21:42]
Josh Pate
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.
- [21:53]
Commercial Narrator
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- [22:55]
Podcast Announcer
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- [23:32]
Josh Pate
Let's continue. We got a lot of games to predict tonight. I wanted to get to one small pressing matter first, though. Coaching searches are going on everywhere. You cannot walk around the SEC without seeing a coaching search happening on your nearest street corner. It's happening all over the place except at lsu, where they can't even get the search really started in earnest because they can't figure out what they're doing. Meemaw would say they can't take a leak without getting the front of their pants wet. At LSU right now, it's it's sort of embarrassing to watch. So if you've been living your life and you haven't been following this, Brian Kelly got fired down there. You know that. And Brian Kelly's owed a whole lot of money, you know, because LSU signed their name on the dotted line of a contract that guaranteed him a lot of money. If they fired him, they fired him. They owe him a lot of money. Shockingly, they don't want to pay it. And so this is now going to play out in a courtroom. And it would be okay if it played out in a courtroom as long as it didn't play out in the court of public opinion. But loose lips, especially motivated loose lips, can sink ships very quickly. Memo also said that. And so now it's just out there. Everyone's reporting on it. And the grand sum is that if I am a candidate for the LSU job right now, if I am Lane Kiffin, for example, I am watching my prospective future employer take my predecessor to court to not pay him money that the contract they signed with him says that they owe him. Now, if you're just a viewer at home, you think, there goes LSU again. Boy, they're crazy about football down there. That is not the reaction. Let me emphasize for clarity and emphasis, that is not the reaction that prospective candidates for this coaching opening have when they watch possibly their future employer trying.
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Prevent themselves from paying money that's owed. It's not a good look. So it's going over how you would think it's going over. Sometimes there's a lot of drama and it's much ado about nothing. This is not that. So I've hit up some people today, yesterday. I've kind of been in contact with people about the whole structure of LSU throughout this whole thing. And the general sentiment had been, yeah, it's a little messy, but don't worry, they don't have to make a hire this week. So they've got a little Runway. They can get their affairs in order. Let's get the president, then we get the ad, then we figure out who's on the search committee. Then you start doing your zoom interviews and then you do your in person interviews. And by the time that an offer is put in front of a candidate, there will be a lot more familiarity and we will have smoothed things over. And that's all gone. That's all gone. The thinking now, I mean, I just, I flat out asked people today who would be involved and who would know about the search. And I said, is this hurting things like I think it is? And they said, yeah, multiple people, not just one person. So I have no idea how to tell you the LSU search is going because it's not going. How can it go right now? So you have to. Look, the whole point of firing a coach is to upgrade. In today's college football, you have to be an unequivocal upgrade for a qualified candidate. So, of course, if you offered the job to a G5 head coach.
- [27:04]
Almost certainly he's going to take it. Maybe aside from like a John Sumrall, you know, like the highest commodity G5 coaches, you go offer the job to a high school coach. He's probably going to take the LSU head coaching job. It doesn't matter how big a disaster it is. He'll sign up for the money and say, fine, fire me in three years. I don't care. It's got to be an unequivocal upgrade for a qualified candidate. There aren't many qualified candidates to be the head coach at LSU that are upgrades from Brian Kelly to begin with. The ones who would be upgrades, the ones who would be qualified normally have good jobs already. So you have to convince them that your spot is a slam dunk in arguable upgrade from where they already are. Do you think Lane Kiffin right now looks at the state of affairs at LSU and thinks, well, that's better than what I got going on here at Ole Miss. They do anything I want them to. I've got minimal invasion from outside influences. I get to act pretty much however I want. Here I am winning. I am competitive in nil. They love me here. I claim to love it here. And I say that sarcastically. I think he really does. Do you think he looks at that right now and says, yeah, that'd be an unequivocal upgrade from what I have? He does not. Or if he does, he's wrong. So they got to get things figured out pretty quickly down there. I'm here. If you guys need to talk, I'm here now. Auburn, on the other hand, a place that historically has been prone to train wrecks behind the scenes, pretty much has their act together. I talked to you about this last week. I said the perception is not the reality with Auburn. The perception is people playing on old stereotypes about Auburn. And the further you get away from the program, the looser people are with saying that kind of stuff and they don't really know what they're talking about. At Auburn, I think there's really good alignment at Auburn, I think there's really, really good structure. The proper people are motivated to make the right decision here, and as a result, I think they had a really busy weekend. From what I hear, they had a very productive weekend. And I think they're much further down the road than LSU is, maybe even than Florida is. And I don't even compare Auburn to maybe the Arkansas or Virginia Techs of the world because they're fishing from a different pool of candidates. And truth be told, if there is overlap between the candidate pool at an Auburn versus an Arkansas or a Virginia Tech, it's because Arkansas or Virginia Tech would get the leftovers that remained in the pool after Auburn fills their spot. I'm trying to be respectful about this, but that's the way it is. So Pete Nakos of On3 fame, Jesse On Threes Pete Nakos. It's on his birth certificate. On three is Pete Nakos. Put out a little article earlier today, not before he stopped in my office and gave me my own personal update. I like to compare what I'm hearing with what young Peter is hearing. Same things, Same things. Pete has his ear to the literal ground during the day. And so he put out a piece today that said, hey, John Sumrall's a strong candidate here. DJ Durkin is going to get a look. Look, you guys know as well as I do, if DJ Durkin were to have beaten Vanderbilt last week, this would already be very loud. If they beat Bama at the end of the year and they win the Iron bowl, which is going to be like super bowl time down there, they probably need to win that game to make a bowl. I think that's how the math works out. Durkin's going to be really, really strongly in consideration. But as of right now, I'm not backing off. What I've said my stance for a while has been, if I'm Auburn, I am absolutely going after John Sumrall. I have not thought that he's the only qualified candidate. I've just thought to myself, if I am, you know, describing what I want in the Auburn head coach, that guy meets all my criteria. That's me. I'm not talking about theirs. That's me. So I think he's very strongly in the mix here. I would call him the favorite to get this job, but not like a 90% overwhelming favorite because I think they're still doing their due diligence. They're going through their process and that due diligence has been done. That's the important thing to note here. Not that it's a race. When you get the right guy, you get the right guy. Doesn't matter if it happens Tuesday or Friday. When you get the right guy, you get the right guy. But it is competitive and so it is in your best interest to be ahead of the pack. And I think Auburn's ahead of the pack right now. Arkansas, just to talk about them quickly, I. They've done their due diligence as well. I think they've got to wait. Okay. If they're competing with Auburn, they're not really competing with Auburn. Auburn is a better job than Arkansas. And so, you know, like, let's just take Alex Golish as an example. This is strictly Generic. I want to emphasize that.
- [31:59]
If Golich wanted the Auburn job and Auburn said we're going to go in a different direction, then he's a candidate for Arkansas. If offers are on the table from both, I think Alex Goelish or any other candidate probably takes the Auburn job before Arkansas. That doesn't automatically mean Auburn gets a leg up on you, because you could have your perfect candidate fall in your lap. All I'm saying is whether it's him, whether it's James Franklin, whether it's any of a number of other candidates, you may have to play a little bit of a waiting game, which I know it feels like you already have been because you have. That's the current state of affairs at Arkansas. As for Florida, I don't think anything's changed at all. I think they're just waiting on Lane Kiffin. And a lot of people down there that I've spoken to feel really good about where they are with Lane Kiffin. They may have reason to feel good about it. I have told you guys many times I will not discuss this with head coaches during the season. So I'm not going to be the one to hit Lane up and ask him what he's thinking. It has been my opinion that he has not made his mind up yet. But if someone at Florida knows different, good on them. This week at LSU has to have helped Florida's cause. It can't have hurt. It cannot possibly have hurt Florida's cause. So until further notice, if I were a Florida Gator fam, I'd just be buying the Lane Kiffin stock. And if they need to pivot, they can pivot. And it's not like they've been sitting down there saying, we're not going to do a thing until Lane tells us no. Of course they've worked on contingency plans, and truthfully, there are probably some really good candidates out there that are on that contingency board. I think it's Lane. That's been one of the easiest coaching searches to see through. Sometimes you get this wrecking ball out of left field at the 11th hour and a name comes in that you never thought existed. I don't know that that's the. That's the case at Florida. Then again, the state of a wrecking ball, the very nature of a surprise wrecking ball is you wouldn't know about it. Here's what I do know. Tis the season. Tis the season for what? Coaching searches. Yeah, but what else? Well, conference championships coming up. Yeah, yeah, keep going. What am I really talking about don't overthink the room. Christmas. That's what's coming up. And before Christmas gets here, cold weather gets here. Trust me, I know. It snowed in Nashville yesterday and I think that probably explains explains the spike that we saw in the paint state store on all of our Tis the season merch because the sweaters are moving. Okay. It finally the other night on the show I pointed out the Tis the season to be chuggy sweater, which is my favorite, and it finally started to move. Merry Christmas, you filthy casual is still in the lead right now, but the Christmas sweaters are moving. Paintstatematerial.com it is my goal for us not to sell out. We as a show, do not sell out. And we as a pate State store hopefully will not sell out. Not because we're not selling a lot of gear, but because we're really good at restocking. Remember when we first opened the store, Jesse, and we could not keep any inventory? Well, we got a bigger store now, so paytonatematerial.com all right, here we go. We got big games this weekend. Texas at Georgia Saturday, 7:30 Eastern kickoff, ABC Texas at Georgia. Man, this game is fueled by quick trip will be there. So we're looking forward to this one. This one was one you could see from miles away. Circled it in spring. Think about being a Georgia season ticket holder. You got the Bama game at night. You had Ole Miss come in there, you get Texas at night. Unbelievable year to be a Georgia season ticket holder. Texas is rested. Georgia's on their third straight game. They played Florida, they won. They played Mississippi State. They won convincingly Texas 11 and three since joining the SEC. But that doesn't really matter in this game because two of those losses are to Georgia and they both happened last year. And Texas had a combined 60 yards rushing in those two games. So this is the final SEC game for Georgia. This is it. They got two out of conference games to end the year. So their conference resume is done and in the bag. Saturday around midnight. What's it going to look like? Arch Manning been leveling up lately? He's got a shot to blow up here. This could be Arch's unofficial official arrival on the big stage. So who can run it? I don't really want to talk about guys throwing the ball yet who can run the ball. Georgia has done a great job. I know it's, it's dirty talk to give praise to Mike Bobo. The closer you get to Athens Georgia, the less they want to give Mike Bobo praise. But you know what We're a pro, Bobo show. We always have been. So I'll give him praise because when I look at this piece of paper, knowing how bad it looked last year and I see Georgia as a top 25 rushing outfit right now, that is cause for celebration. So give him a cake, let him lick the icing off the candles, do whatever he wants to. I don't even know when his birthday is. Give him a cake. But then tell him Texas has got the second best run defense in the country. He won't be scared, but he needs to be aware of it. Texas almost certainly will struggle to run it because until further notice, I don't know that Texas can match physicality with Georgia, which needs to be in the hype video. It needs to be played in the building. You had two shots last year. You got a frying pan to the face. Both games, including one where the backup quarterback came back on you. But again, you couldn't run the ball on them last year. Two games. Two games and you barely got to have 100 rushing yards. It's not a phrase I've ever used before. Now Texas is running back room should be as healthy as it's been all year. So there's that. I don't expect a good rushing game out of Texas. We may may get one out of Georgia, but it's a pride spot for Texas. Georgia doesn't have anything to question their pride about. Texas does. They got a lot more to prove in this game than Georgia does. Georgia could lose this game by 30 and I'd still know overall what Georgia football is under Kirby Smart. We're still kind of trying to find out what Texas football is going to be long term under Sark, are we not? I think we are. But imagine this headline in July. Scratch that. Imagine this question. If I were to ask it to you in July, if I said, hey, you seen the schedule? You seen November? What 12, 13, 14 was 15th. November 15th, I think it'll be. Jesse, have you seen who plays who second week in November? Texas at Georgia. What if I told you in July that game is destined to come down to quarterback play in July? Who would you have thought that Favors Gunner Stockton vs Arch Manning? You would have said huge edge Texas. I would have. I would have said huge edge to Texas. What do you think now? Who's the big edge there? If it comes down to that, and I'm saying that because I think it will, who's the big edge there? Could be Gunner Stockton. As of late, Archman has come on a little bit. Georgia pass defense outside the top 50 Texas past defense in the 90s. So both quarterbacks going to have some work that they can do against the opposition's secondary. I completely trust Gunner Stockton and how he's elevated and how he is. He's a field general now is what he is fully in full command of the offense. Rusty Manziel was in the building today, had a nice little lengthy convo with him about honestly a lot of stuff that I can't say on air. But some of it was about Gunner Stockton and some of it was about the freedom he has to operate within that offense. The willingness, the willingness now that he has both operating the offense and throwing the ball that he didn't exactly exhibit early in the season. See, that's the hallmark of these really really good programs with offensive staffs that know what they're doing. Their quarterbacks continue to get better throughout the year. You notice how that happens. It always randomly seems to happen at Georgia. I know Mike Bobo can't coach himself out of a wet paper bag according to some of you, but his quarterbacks just keep improving throughout the year. It's crazy. He hasn't paid me anything. By the way, there's been a lot of disproportionate Mike Bobo love. It's only cause the dude gets trashed relentlessly like anytime Georgia goes three and out. So I just want to counter the little scale there with some Mike Bobo praise. I trust Gunner Stockton. Can I trust Arch Manning here? Is he beginning to do the same thing? Georgia very low havoc rate. They have struggled to get after the quarterback. They're they're low in sack rate. They're low in takeaways. Texas is not that way. They're top 10 havoc rate. They're top 15 in sacks. So Gunner Stockton faces a little different challenge from the other side of the ball than maybe Arch does from Georgia. I am convinced I have figured out where this game will be decided. Two categories. Tackle and yards after catch. Specifically tackling in space and yards after catch. We saw a CJ Vogel stat that I had to put on the show. Gunners Stockton and Arch Manning are 1 and 2 in the SEC in past attempts behind the line of scrimmage. Allow me to translate. Both of these programs recruit premier athletes that they trust to do things with the ball in their hand.
- [41:31]
And if you can't tackle then yards after catch becomes the most important stat in this game and so I'm going to sometimes I predict the padlock stats, missed tackles, yards after catch those in some shape form or fashion I think will be the padlock stats in this game.
- [41:49]
I walked in the building today and I yeah, I always guess what I'm going to do before I break the game down. I was like 60% leaning. I'm a bet Texas. I'm going to pick Texas. I'm going to do it. And then I thought to myself, self, how can I trust Texas to flip all the critical factors in this game? They are winless versus Georgia. Last year they really got humbled twice against Georgia. Georgia is nearly perfect at home. I trust Kirby and his staff in this spot more than I trust Sark and his staff. That's no disrespect. They've earned the right for me to say that about them and the Texas side has not earned the right for it to be said about them. Texas on the road this year. They faced Ohio State, they lost. They faced Florida, they lost. They faced Kentucky and narrowly won. They faced Mississippi State and narrowly won. They have not been a good road program and they're going to a place where the home team virtually never loses and it's the best team outside of Ohio State that they will have faced on the road all year. What they need is they need a repeat of that Bama moment they had in 2023. I think it was. You remember Sark in Texas, they go on the road, they beat Alabama. It was like a huge coming out party and it was them announcing their arrival.
- [43:11]
Was it really though? It was a great win, but was it really like did that fundamentally alter the course of college football? No, not in the way a lot of people thought it would. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Georgia as a six and a half point favorite right now. Now you know what the model thinks about Texas. I almost hesitated to even show you that. The model shockingly Only has Georgia -4. The model has long been tied at the hip with Texas. Texas is 117th in the country in penalties. I think home field is going to matter here. Home field. A lot gets said about Sanford stadium. I can tell you at night, especially big time opponent in town. It's a special place. Now Bama went in there and they took care of business earlier this year. They were razor sharp on third down. It was the most efficient offensive performance they probably had all year. They still only one by three. I don't think Texas can go in there and be that efficient against Georgia. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I don't think I am. But what I do think is Texas will compact the game and I don't think Georgia will pull away. So I don't have a strong feel on the game other than those factors that I just said all in Georgia. So I think it's a close game and a one possession game. So I'm going to do the thing where I take Georgia to win in Texas to cover, which just means I think it's going to be close and I'm not betting on it. But Kirby and his staff have found a way in these one possession games for a couple of years now and I think they're going to find a way in a one possession game to win it again Saturday.
- [44:46]
But it's going to be, it's going to be a very, very memorable weekend in Athens, Georgia. Temperatures in the low 70s, I think upper 60s at kickoff. So going to be a good one. The other night I told you about.
- [45:01]
A new journey that we're going on with Flex Power and basically here's what it is. Flex Power's got the best generators in the game. They get the best generators I say on planet earth. They are friends of the program. They have partnered with us. Talk to Danny today. Actually, I texted Danny today. And here's what we have decided. These generators are like $800 values. We're gonna give away a few of them. We're doing it right now. We started it the other night. I don't care if you need it in case your power goes out, if you need it to power your tailgate and spoiler alert, you do. You know how you use a generator? You have a million and one uses for a generator. Do you want a free one? If you do, it's pretty simple actually. You just need to tell me why you need it. Several of you already did this. I'm gonna give you until this Sunday to maximize your chances to win. Here's all you need to do. Just record a video. I don't care if it's vertal, vertical, horizontal, I don't care. Record a video explaining to us why you deserve one. One guy did it in gear from the Pate State store the other day. I'm pretty sure that dude's getting a free generator. We haven't decided yet. I'm pretty sure that guy's getting a free generator. But we still have more to give away. So the only thing you need to make sure you do needs to be a video and you need to add that hashtag flexpower, flex and then just post it, Instagram, Twitter, I don't care we will be looking, we will be monitoring. We're giving away one per Sunday for the next three Sundays. You have been warned in a great way.
- [46:39]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [46:43]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Lost Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [46:46]
Matt Rogers
Hey, Bowen, it's gift season.
- [46:47]
Josh Pate
Ugh.
- [46:48]
Bowen Yang
Stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me? Exactly, honey.
- [46:53]
Matt Rogers
I'm easy.
- [46:54]
FanDuel/Gambling Disclaimer Voice
But you're right.
- [46:55]
Matt Rogers
Holiday gifting is stressful.
- [46:56]
Bowen Yang
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
- [46:59]
Matt Rogers
Wait, what about the guide we made.
- [47:01]
Bowen Yang
In partnership with Marshalls where premium gifts mean incredible value?
- [47:04]
Matt Rogers
It's Giving Gifts, a series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
- [47:11]
Josh Pate
Yeah.
- [47:11]
Bowen Yang
Cause if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
- [47:15]
Commercial Narrator
Right?
- [47:15]
Matt Rogers
How about something for the people who.
- [47:17]
Bowen Yang
Actually surprise you with categories, like best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto.
- [47:23]
Josh Pate
Psst.
- [47:23]
Bowen Yang
She wants a pair of stilettos.
- [47:25]
Matt Rogers
Or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful, I really shouldn't have dying.
- [47:29]
Bowen Yang
To see what those are.
- [47:30]
Matt Rogers
And you won't believe their prices.
- [47:32]
Bowen Yang
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
- [47:35]
Matt Rogers
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
- [47:38]
Bowen Yang
Honestly, this is the guy for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
- [47:42]
Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's.
- [47:45]
Bowen Yang
Giving gifts Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
- [47:49]
IBM Executive
Hello.
- [47:49]
Commercial Narrator
Hello.
- [47:49]
Josh Pate
I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast.
- [47:51]
Bowen Yang
Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman.
- [47:55]
Josh Pate
And CEO Arvind Krishna, and I asked.
- [47:58]
Bowen Yang
Him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
- [48:05]
IBM Executive
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive.
- [48:36]
Josh Pate
Yeah.
- [48:37]
Podcast Announcer
Wow.
- [48:37]
IBM Executive
So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
- [48:55]
Josh Pate
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.
- [49:06]
Commercial Narrator
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- [50:07]
Podcast Announcer
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- [50:45]
Josh Pate
Let's continue. Another game breakdown here. Another big one.
- [50:50]
Oklahoma at Alabama Saturday 3:30 Eastern 2:30 Local kickoff on ABC. Alabama has won 17 straight at home. Oklahoma is all right now. Jesse, make sure I get this right. Oklahoma is 10 and 11 away from Norman under Brent Venables, but they're three and oh this year in true road games. So notice what we did there. We added the Texas game in the first stack category, but I removed the Texas game in the second one because it's not a true road game. It's a neutral site game. So Brent Venables has not lost a true road game this year and that includes a trip to Temple and Tennessee. So I have got a little nervousness about this game. Why am I nervous? It's not because I'm playing in it, although my national championship pick is playing in it and that's Alabama. But it's not why I'm Nervous. I'm nervous. Cause I am very confident in picking this one. Very confident.
- [51:50]
And so is the model. And the model. And I agree on this. You know what? I'm not nervous. I shouldn't be nervous. We've won money all year with me agreeing with the model. So let's lean into it here. All right? So for Oklahoma, John Mateer has got to give me enough here. He's got to give me enough. I need a better game from him than I got against Tennessee. Which sounds weird. Cause they went on the road and they won against Tennessee. They did, they did. But they had a lot of other critical factors tilt their way. I'm not taking anything away from them. I'm saying I can't count on that to happen again. So I need better than 19 of 29 for 160 yards, zero touchdowns and one pick. What he did do, John Mateer being the he is, he did put up 80 yards on the ground. And we have seen several mobile quarterbacks give Alabama fits. So that's got to be a staple of their offensive attack this Saturday. He has not thrown for over 225 since the thumb injury, which hurts because I had a Heisman ticket for John Mattier. One thing that can alter this, though, and I, you know, I say I can't lean on this, but maybe I should. Maybe I should buy into the idea that Oklahoma's ground game really is finding itself. That offensive lines playing with a different nastiness. According to friend of the program Gabe Iker. His words, not mine. Did Teddy Lehman back him up on that? That's what I need to find out. Because if Teddy doesn't agree, I really don't care what Gabe Iker said. That's a lie. Very, very sweet individual when it comes to gas stations. He's confused, but he has a good reason to be. It's okay. I understand. But yeah, if that offensive line's coming into its own, a lot of young guys, by the way, signing court, sort of coming into their own. They're coming out of a bye week here. They've had Xavier Robinson running for 100 yards per game. All of a sudden, hey, if that shows up, I don't need as much from John Mattier. I still think I need a better game than I got from him against Tennessee. But you'll notice we've gotten a few minutes into this thing now. I haven't mentioned run defense yet. There's a reason why I don't think it's the biggest thing in the game.
- [53:58]
I have heard a Lot of people talk about this game this week and their biggest thing, I don't think is the biggest thing. The biggest thing, according to most of the free world out there, is Oklahoma's run defense being top five, maybe the best in the country against an Alabama team that struggles to run the ball. Oh, man. It's strength on weakness. Yeah. That's why I don't really care. I'd care if Alabama was relying on being able to run the ball. They already don't. I don't care. If you shave Oklahoma's defensive profile in half, Bama still wouldn't run it on him. So what are you really taking away from Alabama that they haven't already proven they can function fine without? I'd be more worried if Bama was averaging like 30 yards more on the ground per game because that would almost lean me into Alabama's depending on running the ball to be able to beat you. They're not. So it's actually a crazy concept here, but in football it makes sense. When your best strength matches up with their biggest weakness and it's a successful team, sometimes that team has just figured out a way to overcome their weakness. Alabama's figured out a way to overcome their weakness and still scale their offense through really extensions of the ground game. But also they throw the ball really well. Now the follow up to that can be there's a big difference and you need five or six to stop the run versus you're consistently stopping the run with four. And if Oklahoma can do that, then, and I think they probably can, that's when it becomes more difficult. But just on the surface, if you're telling me, man, Oklahoma is going to hold Bama to 55 yards on the ground. So did LSU. So did LSU. Now you may say, well, Bama only scored 20 in that game. Yeah, if you'll go back and watch it. I think there's a lot left on the table in the past game that didn't necessarily have a whole lot to do with LSU as much as it had to do with Alabama. And I'll mention more on that in a second. So what kind of day do I get from Ty Simpson? How much time is he given to throw? Oklahoma is really good at getting to the quarterback without having to bring numbers, much less when they do bring numbers. And Brent Venables has been known to do such things. How good of a game do I get from Ty Simpson? Because he hasn't had a disaster game. The first game of the year even wasn't really on him. He hasn't had his disaster game. He's. He's had varying degrees of good, better, great, hadn't had bad yet. Can Oklahoma make him have his bad game? It's the best defensive front he will have seen. If his pass pro breaks down then you could force him into some uncomfortable throws. You could just turn the ball over, you could force errant throws, you could bat balls in the air and that could fundamentally change this game. It's hard to predict that happening, but that could fundamentally change this game. If he has an adequate time, there will be plays to be made against the Oklahoma secondary. I go back to the Ole Miss game. I go back to the Tennessee game. Now one of them they won, one of them they lost. But in both of those games teams threw for over 315 against them. Which led us to realize that Oklahoma pass defense statistic was a little misleading. Not a lot, but a little misleading. But it doesn't matter if they harass him all afternoon, will they? Hmm.
- [57:23]
I told you I was confident in this game. I tried to present both sides there. Oklahoma strength does not take much away from Alabama. Oklahoma strength of stopping the run doesn't take much away from a team that already doesn't run the ball. The pass defense at Oklahoma is the key in this game and against the two best passing attacks, the only two passing attacks comparable to Bama this year they gave up 315 and 393 through the air. It is a do up spot for Alabama for explosive plays through the air. If you go back and watch the LSU game last week, they won. They covered. There was so much meat left on the bone. Not wildly overthrown or wildly under thrown balls, balls off the fingertips. Balls that you think to yourself with an entire week's focus on precision and accuracy probably yield better dividends the following Saturday. Turnover margin on the year Oklahoma in the one teens. Alabama top 10 and this is Oklahoma having to go on the road in one of the toughest environments they'll play in all year. I think Alabama is going to win the game by double digit Saturday. The model thinks that the line is off. Alabama is currently a five and a half point favorite. A lot of people are terrified about this game. I don't feel that way. I think Alabama is going to win the game and end up handling will not be pretty at all times. But I think fourth quarter you're turning it on. It's midway through and you're saying wow, they found themselves. They found the stuff through the air they didn't necessarily find last week against LSU still won against LSU but didn't find it. I'm going to take Alabama to win. I'm going to take them to cover. And we're going to add this on the Ramen Noodle Express as one of our best bets of the week. We're adding Alabama -5 and a half in the middle of the show. Feel really good about that one. They're watching us in Buckhead, Georgia, Colorado Springs, Colorado and Winchester, Tennessee. It hurts. It brings me no joy because we've got a lot of friends in Oklahoma. And you know what, Jesse? Didn't I pick Tennessee to beat them? I did. I did pick Tennessee to beat them. So I wasn't as confident then as I am now. We have it. We have a short track record of whiffing on Oklahoma games. You know, I'll be here Sunday either way. But I do feel like I see the matchup differently than a lot of people. I've heard a lot of people pick Oklahoma to win the game outright. I do not see that game that way.
- [59:49]
This one's going to be fun. This one right here is going to be fun. Iowa at USC Saturday. It's a 3:30 Eastern, 12:30 Pacific kickoff on Big Ten Network. Don't even ask. It's a ranked game. It's a ranked on ranked game. It's on Big Ten Network. Congrats to the folks at Big Ten Network. Now I hear you. I hear every one of you. And I know what you're saying right now. Lucky Iowa, man. Who? This game's going to be a far cry from last week, they're saying. Who? 37 degrees and rain in Iowa City couldn't be Southern California, they're saying. It brings me no joy to present to you this weekend's weather forecast in normally sunny Southern California. Friday, heavy rain.
- [60:39]
Saturday, heavy rain. This concludes your weekend forecast for Southern California. It's going to be a repeat of last week, but about 20 degrees warmer. That's what we're walking into. Maybe heavier rain. I didn't know it was monsoon season, but apparently it's monsoon season out there. Passing offense, it should be noted. USC number 10 Iowa in the 130s. Who cares? They don't need to throw the ball this weekend anyway. But be careful. I know what the historical trends say historically. Oh man. You give a slight breeze to USC and their entire offense implodes. Cause they're just a fireworks offense. It's just pinball on grass. Just throw the ball all over the place. Make send a run every now and then to Iowa Boom, boom, boom. Run the ball. Stop the run. USC is vastly improved running the football. They had 36 carries for 224 and two scores against Michigan. Out physical Michigan in the Coliseum, might I add, they played Nebraska. 38 carries again over 200 yards. Those are the two most comparable games probably to this one. They didn't have as much success against Notre Dame, but this one is at home. I don't think I was as good an offense, a good team as Notre Dame. So you probably don't need to score in the mid-30s like you did last week. Iowa just gave up 260 on the ground against Oregon. You can run the ball on them.
- [62:07]
Having said that, Iowa just needs the Oregon game again, which sounds a little weird. Didn't they just lose the Oregon game? Yes, they did. Wasn't that at home? Whereas this one's on the road. Yes, I will grant you those points. They need a replay of the Oregon game. Stylistically, there's a reason I came on the show Sunday and I said, boy, hat tip to Oregon. Oregon won playing Iowa's game. Iowa turned it into their game. They just didn't win. Iowa's probably got an 80% chance of winning any game that they control. Stylistically, not 100%. So good on Dan landing in Oregon. You throw in the cotton hoodie, you beat Iowa playing their own game. Get out of there with a win, move on to the next week. That doesn't mean I was screwed up. It just means they didn't do quite enough. Some would say that's the same thing, but you get my point in taking that style on the road. Looks like it's going to be rainy, ugly, gross conditions again. And this time you're playing USC and you just got to be a little better on third down. That's one thing you need to do. You were five of 13 last week. You need to be a little better there. Oregon was top 15 in the country in third down defense. USC is closer to 50th, so you should put yourself in position to have more success there. You lost the turnover battle last week. You know, you got no business losing the turnover battle. You're Iowa. They're not supposed to be open in the game with a safety that's supposed to be you. So you gotta have those critical factors tilt your way. Gronowski doesn't have to throw for 300. Just make one or two more plays and you got to think you're going to give yourself a good chance to win this game. It's a culture game. Even though USC did what they did against Michigan, you're still kind of thinking to yourself, the totality of a Big Ten season, you're just waiting for it to take its toll on usc.
- [63:59]
Well, they control their playoff destiny. Right now they're sitting there ranked, what were they, 15? Something like that. So they're right there in the thick of things. It's a massive hinge game for Lincoln Riley, for his career at usc. It's a massive hinge game because if they win this game, that Oregon game becomes a Super bowl up in Eugene in a couple of weeks.
- [64:21]
Actually, it would be next week. Yeah, if they lose it, I mean, if they can't beat Iowa at home, they're probably not going to Eugene and winning. And they're probably on track for another eight and four season, maybe seven and five if they can't beat ucla. But I mean, just think about the difference in trajectory. You win this week, maybe you go to the playoff. You lose this week, you're probably going 8 and 4 again. There's minimal traction, there's minimal improvement. And all the noise starts again.
- [64:52]
But it's also a big mentality check moment for Iowa. It's not easy. What they had happened to them last weekend at home would gut most teams. And now they're going on the road. Now. They just watched the playoff committee tell them, hey, we're still going to rank you number 21. They only dropped them one spot, which I don't have a problem with. But now they go on the road and.
- [65:16]
USC is on longer rest than them. It's just, it's a mentally tough program. They're gonna need to be. Let's take a look what the model thinks. FanDuel's got USC out to a six and a half point favorite. The Model is much closer in its thinking. It's got USC minus three and a half. You know what? I'm going against the Model. I'm a ride with Lincoln Riley. I'm going to take USC to win. I'm going to take USC to cover. And I think they're going to do it playing a physical style of football the likes of which you haven't seen Lincoln Riley teams really capable of playing in the past. Except that they did it against Michigan. They did enough of it against Nebraska. They didn't quite do enough of it against Notre Dame. I think they'll do it here. Ugly game, hideous game. How windy is it? How effectively can they still throw the ball in the rain? But I think they're going to win the game and cover. So I disagree with the model here. I'll tell you what I do agree with, though. We made an announcement on the show the other night about a charity that we were partnering with, a foundation that we were partnering with. I got, I haven't even been able to open all the DMs and emails we got overwhelmed with feedback from our announcement of our partnership with the Magnolia foundation the other night. So a quick recap. I know not everyone caught the Sunday show. The Magnolia foundation is a foundation that helps with people who lose children age 0 to 18. They help with funeral expenses. They help with counseling. They help with commemorative care, which is just making sure someone's there on important dates, birthdays, anniversaries. Long after the attention has faded from tragedy, they're still there. And I love those guys. Matt himself lost his daughter in the tornado that came through here. Back when I first moved here, our building got hit by it too, but we just got sideswiped. They weren't as fortunate and he lost his little girl. And shortly thereafter and after they had to go through what they had to go through, they started this foundation to help other people who are going through something similarly. So we have long planned on partnering with them. We finally pressed go on it. We announced it the other night. We're doing several initiatives, but one of the first that we can announce immediately is in the Pate State Store, you'll see the Magnolia foundation hats and shirts, the ones that say you are loved. A ton of you grabbed those the other night. Portion of those proceeds are going to the Magnolia foundation and we'll have several other things that we're doing with them. If you don't care about the shirt, if you don't care about the hat, if you just listened and said, well, I just want to go contribute directly, you can themagnoliafoundation.com give. That's how you can go check out what they're about. That's how you can go give at your leisure. I'm told a lot of you did. I'm told one of you gave a very charitable donation the other night. And then in the comment section said, happy to help, but Peyton needs to talk about Indiana more on the show. I think those are fair terms really, when it comes down to it, for the right cause. I will talk about Indiana more on the show, but I appreciate all the feedback we got on that and they do as well. They don't have a mic in front of their face. I do. I'm speaking for them. They appreciate it. Really, really good work and really important work that they do, and we're happy to be able to help in some small way. All right, let's move on. Notre Dame is at pit Saturday. It is a noon kickoff right there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Game day is there. It's on abc. Jesse, a Pennsylvania native, tells me that Pitt fans have been very mouthy lately. He tells me that since Penn State has fallen off and Pitt is ranked that the pit folks are running around the Keystone State running their mouth. Jesse, is this accurate? You told me this earlier. He's not happy about it. He had choice words that he mixed in as he recounted this to me. But apparently that's a reality up there. So there are members of my staff that have baked in bias in this game. I don't couldn't be me. I'm going to call it right down the middle as I see it. But surely if that's the case up there and surely if Notre Dame's rolling in here with their playoff lives on the line and Pitts right in the thick of the race, too, and everyone's jacked up for it and game days coming to town, surely Pat Narduzzi views this as a must win game, right? Surely. Bradley, let's roll it. Do you feel like this is a.
- [69:50]
Commercial Narrator
Must win for this team when it comes to.
- [69:52]
Josh Pate
Absolutely not. You know, it is not an ACC game. I'm glad you brought that up. It's not an ACC game. You know, I gladly get beat 103 or 110 to 10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that. But again, our focus is on Notre Dame and getting as many wins as.
- [70:14]
All right, check that. It's not a must win game. We could lose by 90 and it'd be okay. They're going to play the game anyway. And, you know, I don't think people know pit. I don't think people know a whole lot about pit. What do you know about Pitt? I know most of you haven't watched their games. That's okay. That's okay. We're going to give you a pass on that. We're disappointed, but we're going to give you a pass. People make mistakes all the time. Smart people do casual things all the time. Casual people rarely do smart things. So if you have committed the college football crime of not watching pit, how do you think they're playing? You probably think pit football, ground and pound. Very physical. That is not at all what is happening with Pitt. If you're watching on YouTube. You can see those scores over there. Does that look like ground and pound? Does that look like ball control? That looks like track meet after track meet, which is exactly what Pitt wants.
- [71:10]
It started out once upon a time that Eli Holstein was going to be the hope at quarterback for Pitt. That changed pretty quickly. And Mason Heintschel, that's how I'm pronouncing his name. He took over true freshman. He's been on fire and you've probably seen highlights of him. But this Saturday, you're probably going to watch a whole game of him. He's thrown for 300 plus in four of his last five. They've got the 104th rushing offense in the country. So what you think normally about Pitt is not this year's pit team. It's kind of crazy to watch them. It looks like different team wearing pit gear with the style they're playing. Notre Dame is 15th against the run. They are 89th against the pass. That's a caveat because a lot of people tend to believe that Notre Dame has rectified their defensive woes. And then other people will say, yeah, but they haven't played anyone. And I'm like, well, they played usc. And then they're like, well, USC is a fraud. I'm like, okay, by that metric, what are we even talking about? It just sounds like you hate Notre Dame. And if you do, just say it. But. But if you're going to get Notre Dame's defense, you get them through the air. And if Pitt's going to get Notre Dame to begin with, they're going to get him through the air. So theoretically, this is how you'd want to stack up against Notre Dame. Again, theoretically, because there is this other factor and that is, yeah, but we're Notre Dame. Sounds arrogant sometimes. That's all you need to know about these kinds of games. Like Pitts one of the best of a bad conference and Notre Dame has hit their groove. And maybe it doesn't really matter what these stats on this piece of paper say. Maybe it's 30 to 3 at halftime Saturday. That could be the way it plays out. How real is that pit run defense? That's what we need to know. Cause on paper, I have a piece of paper right here. Do you hear that? It says Pitt has the number three run defense in the country.
- [73:06]
We will find out one thing. There aren't many certainties in this life, but one of them is Notre Dame will test how good your run defense is. It will test the paper a lot of times it runs right through the paper. Even in the lieu of a loss though, Pittsburgh still controlled Isaac Brown. They lost the game, but it wasn't cause they got run all over. West Virginia had the most success against him. That was like the first game of the year. And since then, if we believe Notre Dame's turned a corner, then we could reasonably believe Pitt turned a corner. Only Miami has held Notre Dame under 100 rushing yards though, and that was forever ago as well. So a lot of the worst things that happened to these two teams happened a long time ago and they've each hit their respective strides since then. This is the last resume builder for Notre Dame. They were sitting there at number nine in the playoff rankings when they got released tonight. This is the last whiff of a ranked opponent they will face. They got at Pitt. Pitt's currently ranked, I think 22nd or 23rd. Then they got Syracuse, then they got at Stanford. So this is it. This is it. After this, their resume is largely done and the only thing they can do is hurt it. After this, it could turn into an excellent quarterback matchup. I've gotten this deep into it. I haven't even mentioned C.J. carr. But if it is the case that Pitt's able to not shut down Notre Dame's run game, but limit Notre Dame's run game, I don't believe you can shut it down. But if they somewhat limit them and it's up to CJ Carr to throw the ball to win, he can, he can. Mason Heitchell, could he throw the ball to win? Yeah, I think he could. Could be one of the best quarterback matchups of the day. Notre Dame's defense forces mistakes though. And what worries me a little bit here is you got a true freshman quarterback. It's not his first start where he doesn't know any better. He's several starts in now. Now the plus side of that is he's gaining valuable experience. The downside is there's more tape out there on him. And you've got a defensive staff here, especially the head coach there, that understands how to spot tendencies, how to expose flaws and weaknesses, how to bait, how to make you see ghosts, how to make it look like there are 14 defenders on the field.
- [75:21]
Not impossible, just tough. Let's take a look at what the model thinks right now. FanDuel's got Notre Dame as an 11 and a half point favorite. The model has Notre Dame -10. I have to see Pitt do this to believe it. I think Notre Dame's playing some really good ball Right now, I'm sure there'll be a big public side in this game. I'm sure a lot of the public will bet Notre Dame. I just happen to be with the public. I happen to be.
- [75:51]
I just visualize a lot more frequently. If I simulate it 100 times, I just see Notre Dame comfortably winning a whole lot more than I see this thing going down to the wire. But when you get good quarterback play, you can win most any game. I mean, if you got certain minimal baseline standards for your roster and if they get that out of high school Saturday, yeah, could be a deep four quarter game. I just think Notre Dame is going to force mistakes. They've done it so many times in these kinds of games. I think they're going to force mistakes, take advantage of them, and I think they're going to win and cover. You could head over whether you want a Notre Dame beanie or a pit hat or you want a new little indoor putting green or you want Big League Chew or you want some boots or a baseball bat or baseballs. You can go to Academy Sports and outdoors and you can get it all. Yeah, you sure can. They are longtime partners of the show. We really appreciate them. It says on the bottom of the screen we're proud to partner with Academy. Yes, we are. Yes, we are. You'll notice in the show, I'm never looking at a piece of paper reading what Academy gives me to say, because that's not how partnerships work. Partnerships are. Look, please don't drag us into a lawsuit. Don't say anything that's going to get us sued. But you know what we're about. Just make it sound good on air. Very easy. Because Academy is very easy to make sound good. Now, if you can't get there in person, that's sad, because you should go there in person. I do. Even if just to take a picture in the parking lot. Sometimes I go in person. But if you can't get there in person, that is okay. We will allow you to go to academy.com. some would even say it's encouraged. I encourage you to go to academy.com if you can't get there in person. We appreciate them. Longtime friends of the program. What do we have? We got like, we got several thousand people tuned in live.
- [77:42]
Hmm. Itchy nose. I thought I was going to sneeze. I got a really, really good streak of shows going where I haven't sneezed on air. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel and if you are, thank you. But 51% of you are not. And if you are one of the 49% who are subscribed, you know the drill. It's time to go. Recruit friends, family members, Swipe mom's phone when she's not looking, subscriber and then log out. You're good. She won't know. It won't hurt her. We'll all be fine. I would even encourage that kind of behavior. Some people have gotten Chai Life supremacy for proving that kind of behavior.
- [78:18]
Again, you know what time it is? We're. We're very close to 500,000. In the meantime, the JP poll has been released. These are not rankings. Don't even call them rankings. That's what the playoff committee does. That's what the AP does. That's what I do on Thursdays with the Commissioner's poll, not on Tuesday. On Tuesday, we release the JP Poll. The JP Poll, born from the model here, is strictly teams listed in order that they would be favored on a neutral field. So Even if you're 6 and 6 and I'm 12 and 0, if the model would favor you by 3 on a neutral field, you're going to be ahead of me. And then we're going to post the graphic on Twitter and then people are going to lose their minds and they're going to ask, how can a 6 and 6 team be ranked over an undefeated team? And I'm going to say, they're not. No one's ranked anywhere. These are not rankings. Rinse, repeat. That is the life of the JP Poll every week. And then someone says, well, if it's this confusing, maybe you shouldn't put it out. And I'm like, your confusion is not my problem. I give a helpful tutorial on this stuff every week. Your inability to listen, not our problem. I'm not changing the name of it either because we really like the name JP Poll. So James Madison is still our Highest power rated G5 team. I want to mention that because they're not in the top 20, so you're not going to see them on the graphic. Also.
- [79:42]
I want you to keep in mind as we show you Utah, they're not in the. They're not. They're not 20 to 16. They're rated a little higher than that. But. But Utah is an interesting case because you saw Utah earlier tonight in the College Football Playoff rankings, and they were in the top 15. We have them finishing the season playing our number 29, number 30 and 32 teams in the power ratings. So they've got three formidable opponents left. So that's something to keep in mind. Also, there are three ACC teams in the top 25 and none of them are really in the race for the ACC championship game. Miami's not going to make the ACC championship game. Louisville's probably not going to make the ACC championship game. Virginia is nowhere to be found in the JP poll because there are way more than 20 teams that would be favored against them. Georgia Tech's not in here because there are way more than 20 teams that would be favored against Georgia Tech. Duke's nowhere to be found. There are like 40 teams that would be favored over Duke. So just keep that in mind. All right, Here we go. 20 to 20 to 16. Clemson is back. Clemson is number 20.
- [80:49]
This is the first time because it's been like three minutes where I have to remind you, power ratings, not rankings. Clemson would not be ranked anywhere near my top 20. Vandy is 19. LSU is 18. Still a top 20 power rated team there. That's just roster talent. That's what it is. I was at 17. Well, well, well. I have to admit something to you.
- [81:16]
I about two or three times a year manually override the model and I have used two of those tokens over the last two weeks to remove Penn State from the top 20. Yes, you heard me right. The model had Penn State in the top 20 the whole time. I hit the manual override button because it is my constitutional right to do that. It is, after all, a poll named after me. I didn't feel like listening to the noise. But you should know the model had Penn state like number 18 last week. That's why we made them one of our best bets in Rahmanoodle Express against Indiana and they almost won the game outright. Now everyone wants to hate on the front end when we do that. And sure enough, if we put Penn State in the top 20 last week, everyone would have said terrible things about it. But they're never there to circle back when the model gets validated and when the JP poll gets validated. So Penn State's number 16 this week. They have not tapped out on the season yet. You think about their losses. Close loss to Oregon, one point loss to Iowa. Now, we don't necessarily want to talk about Northwestern and ucla. No, we do not. No, we do not. But Penn State's right there at number 16. Interesting times in the neighborhood here. Miami is 15. Miami dropped two spots. See, they rose in the playoff rankings. These are not rankings. Miami. The model continues to bail on Miami. We have dropped them. I haven't dropped them at all. Miami in the model has dropped almost 9 points since their peak rating around week four or week five or something like that. Crazy model. Very anti Miami right now. Wait, Jesse, wasn't Miami 15th in the playoff rankings tonight? So we got Miami in the JP poll the same as the playoff committee does. Not that we designed it that way, just interesting. USC is 14, Oklahoma is 13, Texas Tech is 12. Again, power ratings not rankings. Tennessee is 11. Now I got to tell you.
- [83:23]
I would take Texas Tech against Tennessee on a neutral field. So I look, I differ with the model all the time. I did it in the Georgia Texas game earlier on this very show. I'm just saying the model would favor Tennessee against Texas Tech neutral field. I would then gladly take the points and I would slam the model shot top 10. Utah is number 10. The model still has Utah as the highest power rated team in the Big 12 even though Texas Tech dusted Utah in their building. But one game sample sizes not always enough to convince the model. Texas is number nine right now. Oregon is number eight. They dropped a point after last week. Oregon, they are down three spots this week. Dropped a whole point. Wow. I thought it was a good win. The model disagrees. I want you to hear that Dan Lanning. It's not me. I believe in you. But you know what doesn't believe in you? Math, data, keyboards, numbers. The model sort of thinks Oregon is secret trash right now. Wet trash after last week. Still hadn't dried out. That's sad. I guess you got to change the way the model thinks. Or else maybe the things they've been saying about you are right all along. I don't know. Take it up with the model. Notre Dame's number seven. They are up two spots and Ole Miss is number six. The top five is unchanged. Georgia's five. Well, Georgia's up to number five so after that it's unchanged. Bama's four. A and M is still three. Indiana is still two. Ohio State is still one. Some quick notes here. There is a 0.2 point gap between a and M and Indiana. So they're the same team right now. Basically. Indiana was very close to dropping to 3. A&M. Very close to rising to number two. It's irrelevant because there is a five point gap between them and Ohio State. That is the widest gap that we've had this year between number one and the rest of the field. There is a three point gap between Texas A&M at three and Texas at number nine.
- [85:40]
Three points. While there is five points between number one and number two for those that are interested. The SEC championship game according to the model right now would be A and M favored by a point against Alabama. We just asked Fanduel last week and they said Bama minus one against A and M. Don't know if that changed or not. So the the model would slightly lean A and M in that game. These are very interesting times. Miami just continues to drop. Penn State is rising. I want you to think about how insane this is. Miami is one spot ahead of Penn State.
- [86:22]
And I know no one believes that. I know no one believes it. But you got to understand the model has nailed Penn State. It has Penn State pegged. So I don't know that I would be so quick to argue with that. I'd be careful. Be very careful if you do disagree not with me. I don't have anywhere that you can bet my numbers, but you can bet them on FanDuel. If you think you have your own model that has things figured out, go prove it on FanDuel. I'm about to give you a best bet in a second. Two of them actually. FanDuel is the exclusive odds provider of the show. I placed a hefty wager at Fanduel today on Marcel Reed to win the Heisman. Did I get bullied into this? Yes, I did.
- [87:06]
But I did it. Hundred of my own dollars. I don't need $100. I already have $100. So I took 100 of my dollars and I bet them on Marcel Reed at +850 odds to win the Heisman. So he can't hurt me. He can only help me. Right now. You can go to FanDuel if you're a new sign up FanDuel.com Josh Pate if you will. You bet $5 on anything and if it wins, you get $150 in bonus bets. It's just that easy. Big games coming up this weekend. You can hit them all there if you don't feel like betting. If you don't bet, that's cool. You can just go look at what the odds are over there. I do it all the time. Nine times out of ten when I go to FanDuel I'm not even betting. I'm actually looking up numbers and looking at the odds markets. However, I am on three of these.
- [87:51]
FanDuel/Gambling Disclaimer Voice
Games must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C. first online real money wager only $5. First deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincut or visit MDG in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.
- [88:36]
Josh Pate
As well as the Ramen Noodle Express T shirts are on many of you. You may notice this little guy right here. That's a pillow. Ramen Noodle Express Pillow available in the store too. But the T shirt is still our bestseller, I think, unless the Christmas sweater passed it by. Pacestatematerial.com okay, so we gave you coastal Carolina plus two and a half the other night. That was our first best bet. I added Alabama minus five and a half in the show tonight and we're going to stay in the state of Alabama. I am also putting UAB plus 18 and a half on the board. Now remember, we couldn't care less what your ranking is. We couldn't care less what your record is. We are the show that proudly put our money on Sam Houston State at.08 last weekend to go on the road. And they went on the road and won at Oregon State, no less. So we're not scared. Look, if you're bad, they'll just give us a whole lot of points to balance it out. So at that point we trust the model and the model says UAB, fire breathing and all, plus 18 and a half against North Texas. And those are three of our best bets. We will add more as the week goes on. Again, a reminder, just as we conclude the show here, if you're not subscribed already, just click the button. Just do it. Just click the button. I have gotten it on good authority that many of you have listened to me ask you to do that 50 times. And finally on plea number 51, you finally did it. And then you tweet about it. You say, oh, he asked so many times. I'm finally going to do it. I don't care. I'll ask as long as it takes. It really helps us when you subscribe to the channel and it doesn't do anything to you. It just helps us. So we appreciate it.
- [90:20]
Podcast Announcer
All right.
- [90:20]
Josh Pate
We'll be back Thursday night. We start at 7 Eastern, 6 Central on Thursday night. Kubelik may or may not stop by. We'll see, we'll see, we'll see. For director Bradley producer Jesse I'm Josh Pate. Take care. Have a great rest of your evening and God bless.
- [90:51]
FanDuel/Gambling Disclaimer Voice
Must be 21 + and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC first online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com and gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit nd gamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York.
- [91:35]
Josh Pate
Ah, greetings from my bath festive friends. The holidays are overwhelming, but I'm tack PayPal and making the most of my money getting 5% cash back when I pay in 4. No fees, no interest. I used it to get this portable spa with jets. Now the bubbles can cling to my sculpted but pruny body. Make the most of your money this holiday with PayPal. Save the offer in the app ends 1231. See paypal.com promoter points can be redeemed for cash and more paying for subject to terms and approval. PayPal Inc. And MLS 910457 okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line. But first.
- [92:24]
Podcast Announcer
There the last one.
- [92:28]
Josh Pate
Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that refreshes.
- [92:36]
Commercial Narrator
Enterprise AI is redefining business operations and.
- [92:39]
Josh Pate
Voice technology leads this transformation. While Alexa showcases consumer applications, AWS AI delivers enterprise scale voice solutions that are reshaping customer engagement across industries. Leverage Amazon's proven AI innovation to transform.
- [92:55]
Commercial Narrator
Your customer experience and drive operational excellence.
- [92:58]
Josh Pate
AWS AI the Voice of Innovation Discover.
- [93:02]
Commercial Narrator
The Alexa story@aws.com AI Our Story this.
- [93:08]
Podcast Announcer
Is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.