Josh Pate’s College Football Show – November 12, 2025

CFP Rankings Reaction + Week 12 Prediction Show & Coaching Search Latest

Overview

In this episode, Josh Pate delivers a rapid, unfiltered reaction to the latest College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings and dives into predictions for the pivotal Week 12 matchups. He discusses realignment chaos, playoff scenarios (including an ACC “doomsday”), and offers acute insight into brewing coaching searches at blueblood programs. As always, Josh lets listeners in on the angles, the data, and the whispers from across college football—no hot takes, just hard truths.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. CFP Rankings Reaction & Doomsday Scenarios

• ACC “Doomsday” Possibility (03:43–07:51)

  • Committee is apparently weighing “bad officiating” results, sparking questions about if wins should be reinterpreted (01:55).
    • "Do we really want to go down a road where the playoff committee is assigning wins that were losses because they perceive bad officiating…?” – Josh Pate [01:55]
  • Scenario painted where ACC could miss the playoff entirely if a weak champion emerges (Duke at 8–4 potentially beating Georgia Tech for the title).

• Miami as the ACC's Last Hope (07:51)

  • Miami, at 15th, is the highest ranked ACC team and would need to jump several ranked teams to claim a playoff spot. Other ACC programs (Georgia Tech, Virginia, Louisville, Pitt) seem unlikely to control their path.
  • Committee Chair acknowledged: “...outside of Miami, this league has no good out of conference wins to hang its hat on.” [Paraphrased]
  • Breakdown of teams ahead of Miami and their tough remaining schedules (Utah, BYU, Texas, Oregon, etc.), illuminating a plausible path—but Miami must take care of business.

• Texas Tech's Surge & Seeding Battles (10:15–13:16)

  • Texas Tech up to No. 6, could grab the No. 5 seed by winning out—possibly even a top-4 seed if upsets rain down, igniting debate.
    • “Could Texas Tech be in position to potentially grab one of the top four seeds now? That’s where people are going to have problems…” – Josh Pate [11:40]
  • Memories of Ohio State’s out-of-nowhere surge in 2014 as a cautionary “wait for the games” reminder.

• How Will the Committee Handle Late Conference Losses?

  • Debate over whether the committee will drop a high-ranked team (like BYU) for a title game loss, referencing how SMU kept its spot after a loss last season [13:16].
  • "Might the committee look at [BYU] ... and say, ‘We're going to put Miami in over them’? Maybe it shouldn't happen … but I don't think it's the craziest concept in the world to consider..." – Josh Pate [15:50]

• Projected First-Round Playoff Matchups & Betting Lines (16:33)

  • Josh gets hypothetical lines from FanDuel:
    • USF at Georgia: Georgia favored by 17.5
    • Notre Dame at Oregon: Oregon by 1.5
    • Miami at Texas Tech: Texas Tech favored by 5
    • Texas at Ole Miss: Ole Miss by 4
  • "There is a lot of movement that's about to happen this weekend." [17:57]

2. The Coaching Carousel: LSU, Auburn, Florida & Arkansas

• LSU’s Search Paralyzed by Brian Kelly Lawsuit (23:32–27:04)
  • Program in dysfunction as LSU tries to avoid paying Kelly’s buyout; candidates (like Lane Kiffin) would be very wary.
    • "If I am a candidate for the LSU job… I am watching my prospective future employer take my predecessor to court to not pay him money that the contract they signed with him says that they owe him. ... Not a good look." – Josh Pate [25:33]
• Auburn’s Surprising Stability (27:04–31:59)
  • “Perception is not the reality” – they are organized and ahead of LSU and Florida.
  • John Sumrall & DJ Durkin highlighted as strong candidates.
    • "If I am Auburn, I am absolutely going after John Sumrall.” – Josh Pate [29:23]
• Arkansas & Florida Coaching Readiness
  • Arkansas is "waiting their turn" behind Auburn for candidates. Florida believed to be all in on Lane Kiffin, with contingency plans ready.

3. Week 12 Game Predictions & Analysis

Texas at Georgia (31:59–44:45)

• Game of the Week: Saturday, 7:30 ET, ABC, in Athens.
• Texas’ run game has been routinely stymied by Georgia ("60 yards rushing in two games last year"), and the home-field edge is major.
• Edge comes to quarterbacks: Gunner Stockton (Georgia) vs. Arch Manning (Texas).
• Key stat: Both QBs lead SEC in passes behind the line of scrimmage, so tackling and YAC (yards after catch) will decide things.
  • “If you can’t tackle then yards after catch becomes the most important stat in this game.” – Josh Pate [41:30]
• Pate's Pick: Georgia wins, Texas covers. Trusts Georgia’s program in tight spots.

Oklahoma at Alabama (50:49–57:22)

• Key Factors:
  • Oklahoma is undefeated on the road this year but underwhelming away under Venables overall.
  • Alabama's inability to run is a "solved" problem, as their passing game is the real weapon.
  • Oklahoma's defense is stout against the run but more vulnerable through the air.
  • “Oklahoma strength does not take much away from Alabama.” – Josh Pate [57:22]
• Pate's Pick: Alabama wins and covers the -5.5 spread. Confident.

Iowa at USC (59:48–65:15)

• Rain expected in LA; USC has improved run game (“224 on Michigan, 200+ on Nebraska”).
• Iowa just needs a repeat of their close loss to Oregon, stylistically.
• Winner controls playoff destiny; huge hinge game for both Lincoln Riley (USC) and Iowa’s program toughness.
• Pate’s Pick: USC wins and covers (ignoring the closer Model prediction).

Notre Dame at Pitt (67:49–75:51)

• Pitt is NOT a classic ground-and-pound team this year: it’s been “track meets” since a QB change.
• Notre Dame’s defense better against the run than the pass; Pitt’s air attack could challenge them if QB Mason Heintschel is sharp.
• Key for Pitt: Must limit Notre Dame's run and force a shootout.
• Pate’s Pick: Notre Dame wins and covers, expecting ND's defense to force mistakes from Pitt’s young QB.

4. The JP Poll Explained & Released (78:18–87:05)

• NOT rankings, strictly power ratings: Ordered by “who'd be favored on a neutral field.”
• Key notes:
  • James Madison is top-rated G5 team (not in top 20).
  • Miami, though 15th in JP Poll and playoff rankings, is trending downward in the Model.
  • Clemson, Vandy, LSU, Iowa, Penn State, and Miami occupy 20–15.
  • Top 10: Utah (#10), Texas (#9), Oregon (#8), Notre Dame (#7), Ole Miss (#6), Georgia (#5), Alabama (#4), Texas A&M (#3), Indiana (#2), Ohio State (#1).
  • “These are not rankings… your confusion is not my problem.” – Josh Pate [78:55]
• Model leans A&M by a point over Bama in an SEC title game.
• Josh admits to “manual overrides” (booting Penn State from Top 20) twice recently for common sense.

5. Betting Picks & Ramen Noodle Express (87:05–88:36)

• Best Bets for the week:
  • Coastal Carolina +2.5
  • Alabama -5.5 (added live)
  • UAB +18.5 vs. North Texas
• Josh reveals a personal “Heisman value” bet on Marcel Reed.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the CFP Committee & Officiating:
  “Do we really want to go down a road where the playoff committee is assignating wins that were losses because they perceive bad officiating…?” [01:55]

• On ACC Doomsday:
  “There is a world where the ACC misses the playoff, which was once thought impossible—but that was a whole different world… Now it’s possible.” [04:44]

• On Miami’s pathway:
  “A lot more life has been breathed into the once thought to be dead chest of Miami.” [07:51]

• On Texas Tech’s Playoff Ceiling:
  “That’s where people are going to have problems… because if these top four win out, the loser is gonna believe it’s their birthright to a top four spot.” [11:40]

• On LSU’s Coaching Search Dysfunction:
  “Not a good look… If I am Lane Kiffin for example, I am watching my prospective future employer take my predecessor to court to not pay him money the contract says they owe. … That is not the reaction [the school wants candidates to have].” [25:33]

• On Auburn’s Process:
  “At Auburn, I think there’s really good alignment … I think they had a very productive weekend … I would call [Sumrall] the favorite to get this job…” [29:23]

• On Georgia–Texas:
  “You had two shots last year. You got a frying pan to the face both games, including one where the backup quarterback came back on you.” [34:10]

• On Bama–Oklahoma:
  “Oklahoma strength does not take much away from Alabama. Oklahoma strength of stopping the run doesn’t take much away from a team that already doesn’t run the ball.” [57:22]

• On the JP Poll:
  “These are not rankings. … Your confusion is not my problem.” [78:55]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Playoff Rankings Reaction & ACC Doomsday – 01:55–07:51
• Miami’s Pathway & Texas Tech’s Ceiling – 07:51–13:16
• Committee Handling of Late Losses & Hypothetical Lines – 13:16–17:57
• Coaching Carousel: LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, Florida – 23:32–31:59
• Texas at Georgia Deep Dive – 31:59–44:45
• Alabama vs Oklahoma Breakdown – 50:49–57:22
• Iowa at USC Analysis – 59:48–65:15
• Notre Dame at Pitt Analysis – 67:49–75:51
• JP Poll Discussion & Rollout – 78:18–87:05
• Best Bets / Ramen Noodle Express – 87:05–88:36

Episode Tone & Takeaways

• Josh’s coverage is high-energy, blunt, and self-deprecating, often pausing for teaching moments (especially on model vs ranking debates).
• Listeners new and old get a blend of humor and hard data, with no agenda except “give college football fans the real story.”
• Behind the surface debates (committee decisions, coaching searches) are connected back to on-field consequences, with a strong focus on process and program stability over “hot takes.”

Final Notes

• For every game and situation, Josh emphasizes “wait for the games” and the unpredictable chaos of late November.
• The show is interactive, driven by audience questions and little in-jokes (banhammer for chat nonsense, “padlock stat,” etc.).
• He repeatedly reminds listeners to subscribe for continued access to this “corporate overlord–free” show.

This summary omits non-football content (ads, promos, merch plugs, etc.) and focuses exclusively on analytical and informational segments as presented by Josh Pate.