Josh Pate's College Football Show (Dec 22, 2025)

"CFP Reaction Show + Next Round Thoughts & Portal Intel"

Overview

Josh Pate delivers an in-depth reaction to the most recent College Football Playoff games, addresses the controversy around G5 teams’ playoff inclusion, assesses quarterfinal matchups, and provides transfer portal whispers. Emphasizing mature, nuanced discussion, Pate urges listeners not to default to social media hot takes, and breaks down implications for fans, teams, and the current playoff structure.

Main Themes

• G5 Playoff Inclusion Debate: Honest, mature discussion about the structure of the CFP and the role—or lack thereof—for Group of 5 teams.
• Quarterfinal Game Reactions: Breakdown and context for the four quarterfinal games, upsets and blowouts.
• Previewing the Next Round: Early analysis of upcoming playoff matchups, matchup dynamics and key questions.
• Transfer Portal Buzz: Early intel and implications on major portal moves.
• Community Engagement: Pate highlights viewer “worst predictions” in a tongue-in-cheek segment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Call for Mature College Football Discourse (02:13-04:44)

• Josh emphasizes the need for nuanced debate in college football communities, urging against personal attacks over differing opinions.
  • “If someone disagrees with you on an opinion about college football, it may not automatically mean you have to resort to questioning whether they know ball...—Josh Pate [02:17]”
  • He acknowledges that emotions are running high in reaction to the G5 blowouts and sets the stage for a grown-up discussion.

2. G5 Playoff Blowouts & the CFP Structure (04:45–24:09)

• Recap: James Madison and Tulane, the G5 representatives, both lost by wide margins.
  • “Of course James Madison and Tulane got splattered yesterday. Please don’t talk to me about what JMU did in the second half…It was a splattering.” —Josh Pate [04:53]
• Pate’s Stance: It’s not about blowout margins; he’s concerned with structural issues—particularly, strength of schedule (SOS).
  • “I don’t care about margin of defeat. If you adopt my position on this, you avoid 95% of the mindless arguing...” [06:29]
  • He argues G5 teams (ex: JMU) should not be included unless they meet a minimum SOS threshold, regardless of on-field results or point margins.
    • “If I don’t think a G5 team belongs in the playoff…it has nothing to do with the fact that Oregon’s going to hang half a hundred on them.” [08:16]
• Fairness, Realities, & Alternatives:
  • Pate acknowledges the apparent unfairness: “JMU would know before the season even started, that they’ve got no shot…That is correct.” [10:28]
  • His solution: a separate, subsidized G5 playoff, ideally with promotion/relegation, acknowledging the actual disparities in resources, talent, and opportunity between P4 and G5.
    • “I would love for us to acknowledge that 136 teams are not playing the same caliber of the sport. It's very logical.” [13:04]
  • Recognizes harsh realities: portal era strips G5 of emerging talent/coaches, making true upstart runs almost impossible.
    • “The second that talent starts to elevate on those teams, it is robbed by…Power 2 programs.” [17:40]
  • Middle-ground solutions (e.g., G5 must be ranked in the top 12 for inclusion) are “fine,” but Pate warns fans are chasing a past that no longer exists (“those teams don’t exist anymore” [19:38]).
• Final Word: The system needs logic; margins are a fig leaf argument.
  • “Margins have nothing to do with it…JMU didn’t belong on the field…because their next toughest opponent wasn’t rated top 50 this year.” [22:30]

3. Quarterfinal Reactions & Immediate Takeaways (28:46–47:14)

• Alabama vs. Oklahoma

  • Alabama trailed 0-17 in Norman before storming back for the win.
  • Pate picked Oklahoma (“Absolutely I doubted you. Did you watch Alabama down the stretch?” —Josh Pate [29:02])
    • Discusses how crisis moments create catalysts: “It was going to take something extra...the extraordinary thing happened, and over...five minutes...they go from dead in the water to brand new ball game 17 all.” [30:23]
  • Highlights Ty Simpson (“October Ty Simpson was a legit Heisman...kind of showed up in this game, didn’t he?” [31:20])

• Oklahoma's Flaws

  • High-level defense but cannot run the ball; offensive line issues persist despite portal efforts.
    • “They finished with 33 carries for 55 yards in this game...chronic issue for Oklahoma multiple years running.” [32:50]

• Miami vs. Texas A&M

  • Miami’s defense, under Corey Heatherman, dominated—transforming from last year’s sieve to a vice-grip unit.
    • “Double thumbs up, full throated clap for Miami’s defensive staff.” [35:30]
  • Miami holds A&M's Marcel Reed in check; four straight years of progress under Mario Cristobal.
    • “It would have been debatable if they lost yesterday, but they just won a playoff game...biggest Miami win since the national title game of 2002.” [37:29]

• A&M’s Staff Churn

  • OC and DC both outbound; attention/focus likely impacted by job changes.

• Ole Miss & Oregon

  • Both enjoyed “workouts” against overmatched G5s.
  • Ole Miss gets “Lane Kiffin cloud” off with resounding win.
  • Oregon uses game as tune-up; Pate reiterates G5 arguments already covered.
    • “If I were an Ole Miss fan...would imagine emphatically winning a home playoff game...did that.” [44:27]

4. Early Next-Round Thoughts (51:36–79:40)

Miami vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)

• Athlete-on-Athlete Showcase: “From a pure athlete vs. athlete standpoint, this is a phenomenal matchup.” [51:41]
• Staff Edge: Gives significant nod to Ohio State’s experienced staff.
• Questions for OSU: Will Julian Sayin and OSU offense open it up after being held to 10 points last game?
• Key for Miami: Can they run on OSU? If not, can Carson Beck win it?
  • “The key issue for Miami here is...Carson Beck’s going to have to win a game for him.” [53:50]
• Receiver Watch: Jeremiah Smith (OSU) and Malachi Toney (Miami) are key difference-makers.

Oregon vs. Texas Tech (Orange Bowl)

• Elite Profiles, But Isolated: Texas Tech’s dominant stats all come against Big 12; untested outside conference.
  • “How legitimate was the Big 12 this year?...That’s a question, not a weakness.” [59:32]
• Oregon's portal class, coaching staff distractions (coordinators taking other jobs), and key injury (Evan Stewart) all key talking points.
• Texas Tech’s balanced receiving corps and how they respond to Oregon’s D-line pressure are highlighted.

Alabama vs. Indiana (Rose Bowl)

• Both with arguably the three best wins nationally; Indiana favored by 6.5.
• Indiana’s #1-rated D in pressure rate. Bama’s passing game must show up.
  • “They (Bama) know they have to throw the ball to win.” [71:53]
• QB matchup—Ty Simpson (Bama) must handle pressure; Mendoza (Indiana) underperformed vs. other top defenses, needs to step up.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl)

• Rematch, with both teams improved since their last clash.
• Georgia is “dangerous,” perhaps overlooked, now at their best ball.
  • “I don’t know how Kirby Smart and Georgia get overlooked. How in the world does the world come to that?” [77:29]
• Ole Miss needs to mitigate explosive Georgia plays; matchup hinges on established stars and turnovers.

5. Transfer Portal Whispers & Early Intel (66:34–71:00)

• Josh Hoover (TCU QB): Indiana is the presumed destination, Missouri/Tennessee also mentioned.
• Chaz Coleman (Penn State edge): Ohio State leading for his signature (No. 2 overall player in portal).
• Rocco Becht (Iowa State QB): Penn State front-runner.
• Beau Prabula (Penn State backup QB): Virginia Tech speculated.
• Aiden Chiles (Oregon State/Michigan State QB): Hitting portal after Jonathan Smith’s firing—Cincinnati/Nebraska early possibilities.
  • “There’s this part of me, maybe it’s a personal flaw. I can’t give up, I can’t quit some guys. And Aiden Chiles has just got something about him.” [70:50]

6. Community Engagement: Worst Predictions of the Season (80:24–86:08)

• Josh reads and mocks fans' preseason predictions:
  • Ohio State loses four games (Austin): “They went 12-0...that did not pan out.” [81:00]
  • Clemson beats LSU by 21+ (Ball Fate Guru): “Clemson did not score three plus touchdowns in this game.” [82:00]
  • Texas and OU for SEC title (NWS Andrew): Both fell short; “Neither played in Atlanta.” [83:00]
  • Arkansas will pull off two top-10 upsets (Razorbackology burner): They won just two games, against non-P5 competition.

Memorable Quotes

• “I thought I was getting a hot dog. This is Vienna sausage. I lived on Vienna sausages growing up. Believe me, I know the difference.” —Josh Pate on G5 playoff disappointment [05:54]

• “The second that talent starts to elevate on those teams, it is robbed by...Power 2 programs.” —Josh Pate [17:40]

• “If you want the G5 to have access...but you also want to avoid the complete charade that was yesterday...let them be ranked in the top 12. I got no problem with that.” [18:48]

• “You’re not having Boise stories anymore. You’re not having those UCF stories anymore.” [20:40]

• “Margins have nothing to do with it…JMU didn’t belong on the field…because their next toughest opponent wasn’t rated top 50 this year.” [22:30]

Key Segment Timestamps

• 02:13 – Josh’s call for rational CFP debate / Episode kickoff
• 04:53 – Reaction to G5 blowouts (James Madison, Tulane)
• 06:29 – Minimum strength of schedule philosophy
• 08:16 – Pate’s structural critique of the CFP, not the teams
• 10:28 – “How is that fair?” – Addressing fundamental unfairness
• 13:04 – Separate G5 playoff as preferred solution
• 17:40 – Talent drain from G5 to P2 issue explained
• 19:38 – Middle-ground “Top 12” proposal for G5 access
• 22:00 – Dismissing margin-of-defeat arguments
• 28:46 – Quarterfinal game recaps commence
• 29:02 – Alabama comeback and “October Ty Simpson”
• 31:30 – Oklahoma’s chronic ground game issues
• 35:30 – Miami’s defensive turnaround, A&M’s challenges
• 44:27 – Ole Miss and Oregon playoff reactions
• 51:36 – Early look at 2nd-round matchups: Miami-Ohio State
• 59:32 – Texas Tech/Oregon preview and caveats
• 66:34 – Portal buzz: Hoover, Coleman, Becht, Prabula, Chiles
• 71:53 – Alabama-Indiana preview: Pressure, QBs, health
• 77:29 – Georgia-Ole Miss rematch narrative
• 80:24 – Community “worst predictions” segment

Tone and Style

• Direct, honest, and a bit wry—Josh alternates between analytical breakdown and relaxed, conversational asides. He emphasizes “grown-up” discussion and logic-based critique, often making light of heated internet culture. Audience engagement is high, and listener comments/“traditions” are celebrated in a community-friendly way.
• Regularly uses humor, e.g., Vienna sausage vs. hot dog, describing disaster predictions, and holiday/merch mentions.

Takeaways for Listeners

• The CFP remains in flux, with structural flaws—especially regarding G5 access—on full display.
• Recent blowouts highlight the need for playoff reform, not short-sighted scapegoating of individual programs.
• Alabama and Miami both made substantial statements in the quarterfinal round, overcoming widely doubted narratives.
• The next round features considerable intrigue: Miami’s defense vs. OSU’s offense; Oregon’s athletes vs. Texas Tech’s Big 12-dominated profile; and Indiana’s meteoric rise vs. battle-tested Alabama.
• The transfer portal will continue to reshape rosters and, likely, the playoff landscape itself.
• Fun, humility, and maturity should prevail in college football fandom—even when predictions go hilariously wrong.

For further details or extended breakdowns, segments are available on demand via Josh's YouTube channel.