← Josh Pate's College Football Show
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- [00:00]
eBay Ad Voice
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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Coca-Cola Ad Voice
What a matchup we got y'.
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Josh Pate
All.
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Coca-Cola Ad Voice
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beatin everybody showing that school pride. Game like this, yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and in ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [00:52]
Josh Pate
This is Julian Edelman from Games With Names. Fan fantasy football can be exhausting. I mean that literally. You're so anxious over your lineup you can't fall asleep. Best way to deal with it is unisom. There's a reason it's the number one doctor recommended over the counter sleep aid brand. It helps you fall asleep faster, wake up less and feel refreshed in the morning. Plus unisom sleep tabs are clinically tested and proven effective and and completely non habit forming. So make the ultimate sleeper pick and put it to bed with unisom Use as directed.
- [01:34]
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- [02:13]
Josh Pate
I think. Really with the new year less than 10 days or so away, if you believe in resolutions, I do have a few suggestions for people I would say and I'm gonna try and lead by examp. If someone disagrees with you on an opinion about college football, it may not automatically mean you have to resort to questioning whether they know ball, questioning whether they love ball, questioning whether they're a corporate shill. Again, I'm certainly not speaking from personal experience here. It's just something I think collectively we as a college football community can work on. We're jam packed. We're high atop a lovely Mild Downtown Nashville, Tennessee on the Sunday, December 21st, the year of our Lord 2025. December 21st, first day of winter. That means it's the shortest day of the year. So it's only up from here. I've got a lot more to say about the College Football playoff. Everyone is up in arms Some way or the other about the whole G5 playoff thing. So we're going to have a very, very, very adults only conversation. Not in like a TV ma way, but very much a mature conversation on the show tonight that again, you're going to have to kind of. You're going to have to kind of hit the reset button on your mood because I know a lot of you are very mad right now. So I'll talk about that. I'm going to talk about all four games that we have set for the quarterfinal round. Could I interest you in the idea that even though Miami and Ohio State has the biggest point spread, it may be the most intriguing game? We don't say that very often. We've also. Not that I've forgotten this. I would not forget this. We've got worst predictions of the year on the show tonight, mind you, not mine. I have very little interest in calling myself out. Everyone else does that enough. No, no, no. We want to call everyone else out on the show. Namely you guys. It's all in good fun. Of course, if you're new to the show. That sounds sort of sadistic. No, we have fun with each other every year. Immunity. Okay, Atlanta, Georgia is tuned in San Jose, California. Chattanooga, Tennessee. Erie, Pennsylvania. We are on our way to a million subs around here. So if you're not already doing your part, and most of you are probably, please do your part and subscribe to the channel because it's free and it helps us out a lot. Okay, let's dive in. Jesse, I don't have anything in my teeth, right? I just ate a bunch of pumpkin seeds before the show. That's all we had. Look, I got a warning for you. No, Bradley, that's not the way I want to start the segment. I'll start it this way. So, yeah, of course James Madison and Tulane got splattered yesterday. Please don't talk to me about what James Madison did in the second half. Just see who Oregon had on the field. It's five possession game in the first half. That was the game at that point. It was a splattering Tulane, Ole Miss. It's crazy. I felt like I'd seen that game already. It's because I had just without Lane Kiffin this time around. So, yes, both of those games were blowouts. Not that many people expected anything otherwise. I've got to warn you. So we're going to do this. I'm going to really, really hash out this entire G5 playoff thing. Everyone's got extreme opinions on this. I don't feel like mine's extreme. But then again, Jim Jones didn't feel like his opinions were extreme. So I want to toss my thoughts out there, but I do want to go very, very adults only on this. So if at any point when someone disagrees with you on this, you're questioning their knowledge of ball or whether they love ball or whether they're bought and paid for, you're a corporate shill. Just leave. This is probably not the show for you tonight. If you can agree to disagree with someone, but hear them out. Let's go down that road for just a second. So I don't really think anyone particularly enjoyed this yesterday. Of course, Ole Miss fans are exempt from this. Oregon fans are exempt. But outside of that, even the people who want the G5 teams in the playoff cannot possibly enjoy watching them get disemboweled. So even you guys didn't enjoy the games themselves. Unless I'm missing something, I'm not saying you didn't watch. I'm saying did you watch it with a smile on your face and say, ah, this feels good to me. I like this. I just didn't really get that vibe. And if you do exist, God bless you. Again, just difference of opinion. You're outnumbered 10 to 1, maybe 20 or 30 to 1 by people who looked at it and said, we can do better than this. I don't like this. This is not enjoyable. I thought I was getting a hot dog. This is Vienna sausage. I lived on Vienna sausages growing up. Believe me, I know the difference. So I'll give you honesty, at least from my vantage point. My super bowl, or in college football terms, my national championship. The peak of my college football experience is late October into November. That's where it peaks for me. College football does not peak in the playoff for me. I don't sit around in April dreaming about playoff games. I dream about the regular season. So you need to understand from my viewpoint over here, I do care what the playoff looks like. This is not the center of my world. This is not the end all be all to me. I feel differently watching college football than I do the NFL or pro sports. Pro sports. They're all about building to the playoff for a million reasons which I've shared on the show before. That's not college football to me. So I only get worked up to like a seven or a seven and a half on the one to ten rage scale when it comes to discussing the playoff. But I will tell you how I feel. But I also want to give you a rule just for Tonight, I want us to clearly state our issue. If you have a big issue with the playoff, the structure of the playoff, the teams that made the playoff, I'm not doing the whole Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami thing. That's its own separate segment. I'm speaking specifically about the G5. You may not even think the G5 belongs in the playoff, or you may think that they should have a path. However, this particular year, there were no deserving G5 teams. You may think that there is a certain strength of schedule metric that should be met that most G5 teams can't meet. Whatever you think, clearly state your issue right now. I'm giving you guys time. That's why I'm buying time right now. And now let's dive into trying to sort it out. So I stated my issue pretty clearly, I think, for years, but I stated it last week and the week before that leading up to this because it was pretty clear where we were going. I don't care about margins. I don't care about margin of victory. I don't care about margin of defeat. If you adopt my position on this, you greatly avoid 95% of the mindless arguing back and forth when these games happen. JMU got it run up on them last night. Tulane had to score run up on them last night. And everyone started yelling, see, they are getting blown out. We knew it. Big point spreads, big margins of defeat. That's why G5 teams shouldn't be in the playoff. Well, I've never felt that way. Sure, I expect them to get blown out, but that's not why I believe a team should or shouldn't be in the playoff. When you make that argument, you leave yourself wide open to people making bad faith counter arguments. And the bad faith counter argument could be something as simple as, well, hey, Alabama got blown out by Clemson in 2018. Did they belong? Tennessee got blown out by Ohio State last year. Did they belong? Well, yeah, of course they belonged in the playoff. But someone's twisting your own logic against you and you opened yourself up to it. So I've never chosen to open myself up to that. So I've always made the argument that if I don't think a G5 team belongs in the playoff, and I did not think James Madison belonged in the playoff. Well, let me back up. Based on the current structure and the current rules, James Madison did belong in the playoffs. I'm arguing the structure shouldn't exist as it does right now. So jmu, none of this is their fault. You know, prerequisite, you have to say that none of it's their fault. According to the current structure in place, they did belong in the playoff. So I'm speaking about the way I would prefer it to be structured. All right, now. Now we move on. I don't think if the structure is the way it should be, a team like James Madison shouldn't be in the playoff. But it has nothing to do with the fact that I think Oregon's going to hang half 100 on him. I would hold my stance even if JMU had upset Oregon last night, as unlikely as it turns out that was going to be. I don't care if they go beat him or if they lose by 70, I'd still hold the opinion they didn't belong in. Because my viewpoint on whether or not A team, mostly G5, should be in the playoff has never been about margin of defeat, how badly I think they'll get beat, how badly they end up getting beat. SMU got smoked last year. I thought SMU belonged in. Why wouldn't I think JMU belonged in because they didn't meet the minimum baseline requirement of strength of schedule. Or put another way, there is a minimum threshold of resistance that I think your schedule has to give you to warrant consideration for the playoff. It's impossible for JMU's schedule this year to have done that and I'm using them as an example. There are a million other examples of this in our power ratings. I shared this stat last week in our internal power ratings. Doesn't matter whether you respect ours or not. You can go use Conley's or you can go use whoever. They're all going to look pretty much the same this time of year in our power ratings. I think I counted Oklahoma playing eight top 30 opponents and I counted JMU playing one top 50 opponent and they lost to that one team. And outside of that 14 point loss to Louisville, they didn't face another opponent in the top 50. Old Dominion at 52, I think was their their highest caliber opponent that they faced. So I don't care what they will or won't do. I could take the Indianapolis Colts, drop them into Harris. What is it? What is it, Prez? Harrisonburg. Wherever JMU is, I could drop them in there and have an NFL team play that schedule. I know how good the NFL team is. It's obvious the NFL team would run rough shot over a college football playoff. I wouldn't think they deserve to be in the playoff because they didn't earn it because their schedule made it impossible. So someone heard me make this argument the other day. And they said, wait a second. If that's the case, then you're telling me, based on the protocol you wish was in place, that JMU would know before the season even started, that they've got no shot to make it. That is correct. Actually. That is correct. Then the counter to that is, how is that fair? How could you ever advocate for this system to exist wherein a team that is under the FBS umbrella enters a season looking at their schedule and knowing this schedule is not going to give us any shot at making a playoff? And I said, that's. That's very logical. I don't think this should be. The structure is my follow up. So in my perfect world, it wouldn't matter because we'd have a separate G5 playoff. So we wouldn't have to worry about that because Tulane and JMU would probably be playing each other in the G5 national championship game or a quarterfinal or a semifinal, because that's the way I would prefer it to go. Now, this is where we need to remember, because I already hear it, already hear it happening out there. A lot of people are tuning out or. Well, not. They're not tuning out literally, but they're starting to talk already. You're talking over me and you're not really listening to what I'm saying. And you didn't agree to the rules. The rules where we're going to have an adult conversation here. So I'm going to give you my personal belief, but I'll shoot holes in my theory just like you guys would. You're not here, so I have to speak for you. And I have no problem doing that. So my personal belief is you should have to face a minimum required strength of schedule to warrant inclusion in the playoff. It's just a fact that Most of the G5 schedules and some of the P4 schedules do not meet that minimum threshold. Therefore, those teams should not be able to make the playoff. Doesn't matter what the margin of victory or defeat would be if they made the playoff. They shouldn't make it because they didn't meet the minimum threshold. Okay, My answer to that or my solution to that is I would love for us to have a G5 playoff. And I've given several reasons why I believe that that would be great. Number one, because I would love for us to acknowledge that 136 teams are not playing the same caliber of the sport. It's very commonsensical. It's very logical. And the biggest problem is money. Because if you create a separate G5 playoff, you're choking off a team like James Madison or a team like Tulane's access to the Big Dance. You're acknowledging that the second playoff would be a lower tier playoff. It absolutely would be that. Absolutely. It would be that. Just like they're already lower tier teams. They are lower tier in terms of resource, they are lower tier in terms of talent. They are lower tier in terms of staff salary. Everything is already second tier. This doesn't have to make you feel good, but it's a reality. You can get mad that that's the reality. And you could talk me till I'm blue in the face about the factors that exist in the sport that made that a reality. It's not my fault. It's not your fault, it's not anyone's. Well, it is someone's fault, but it's many someone's fault. We can't change it right now. So in terms. Strictly in terms of proper playoff structure, it makes sense to me to apply logic. Now, My logic has always been, let's make a G5 playoff where a team like JMU doesn't sit around knowing our best shot is to go play Oregon and get slaughtered. I would love for JMU to exist in a world where they could really win a championship, but a lot of people don't feel that way. Even though I've said I would love to have the thing fully subsidized, I would love for the big boys to be forced to subsidize it so the money's not an issue. In other words, you're not getting choked off from anything. I would love for there to be a promotion and relegation system where if you continue to dominate down there, you can advance, and if you continue to suck up here, you can get demoted. You know, European soccer stuff. So I would prefer all that. But a lot of people push back on that. So if you push back on that, okay, I didn't say my solution's the only solution, but if you push back on that, what's your alternative? Because a lot of you push back on it because you think the G5 should have access, I'm fine with that. I don't have a huge problem with that. Contrary to popular belief, not everyone who advocates for common sense thinking on college football hates the G5. But if you want the G5 to have access, but you also want to avoid the complete charade that was yesterday, then. I've heard a lot of people throw around the middle ground stance of, well, let's give the G5 access, but make them be ranked in the top 12. I got no problem with that. Let the G5 be in, but take away the auto bid. So in other words, if they earn it, like. Like Miami earned a spot as an at large team this year. Oklahoma earned a spot as an at large team this year. If a G5 team did that and the committee ranked them in the top 12, put them in. If that's your stance, I'd be fine with that. Totally fine with that. That's not the stance that most people are taking, but if that's the stance you want to take, I'd be fine with that. Not really sure people know what they're advocating for there, because they still have in their mind 2017, UCF 2007, Boise. And those are the two that come to mind always. But there have been a few of them. Cincinnati, as recently as a few years ago, made the 14 playoff as they should have. I never pushed back on it at the time. Cincinnati was still a G5 team, by the way, and they made it. And I thought they should make it. But those teams don't exist anymore. This is another of the harsh realities. There's some bad faith arguments that get made out there, and then there's some harsh realities. I don't like what I'm about to say. To be very clear, I don't like that this is a reality. But it is. The great G5 teams exist anymore because the second that talent starts to elevate on those teams, it is robbed by not really P4, but really more so Power 2 teams, Power 2 programs. Which is probably why the ACC and the Big 12 should keep their mouth shuts on this. Keep their mouths shut on this. Tom Fornelli put out a really good feature on this today, and one of the points he made was, hey, you can talk about P4 all you want to. It's really a P2 world. And the Big 12 in the ACC probably need to realize that what's currently being said about the G5 not too far down the road could start to be said about them. Because it's really just the SEC and the Big Ten and everyone else. He's not wrong about that. But the point still remains that as we stand here today, the moment that a G5 team starts to elevate, a program starts to elevate their roster gets raided because you've got teams that dwarf them in nil resource. They get to go take all the players. They take the coaches as well. Both of the G5 teams who were playing yesterday have had coaches that already took other jobs. And so you've got this endless stream of any of the worthwhile talent that could compete on that level, elevating to that level. So you're not having Boise stories anymore. You're not having those UCF stories anymore. Oh, by the way, what did UCF do? They parlayed that run into, hopefully a move upwards, they climb upwards. They're in the Big 12 now, so they gain that access. That's all anyone's goal there is. The players think that way, the coaches think that way, the ads think that way. Watch USF in the coming few years. You think they're comfortable with the resources they're investing down there? You think they're happy just sitting there in a G5 conference? They're absolutely not. So I'm getting a little off topic here, but it's not your fault if you're mad about this. It's not my fault, but you're looking at it through the scope of the playoff. Most people do not care about the business or economics of college football. They just want an entertaining playoff. And yesterday you had two egregious crap games dropped in your lap and you didn't like it. And you shouldn't like it because the structure makes no sense. There are a million and one reasons why the structure doesn't make sense. The sport is heavily tilted against those teams. A lot of the lifeblood that they used to be able to get is choked off. All this is real. I don't like it, but it still is. So it's not going anywhere. I will say, look, this, this time next year, just because of a few of the tweaks that are set to be made, maybe a lot of this is a moot point. But it got ugly on the Internet yesterday. Fortunately, I was traveling back. I didn't say a word. I mean, I put, I put out one little tongue in cheek screenshot earlier this morning. But I didn't say a word about the games last night. I said it's a splattering, which I say anytime a blowout happens. And that was about it, because I didn't care about the margins. But I will say of the many bad faith arguments people make out there about how these blowout G5 games don't matter because Ohio State blew out Tennessee last year. Oh, look at these examples. Georgia blew out tcu. Hey, man, these teams, you're telling me they didn't belong either. The margin has nothing to do with it. It's a stupid argument. It's a bad faith argument. But it's also a stupid argument. The margins have nothing to do with it. JMU didn't belong on the field last night because they were going to go get blown out. JMU didn't belong on the field because next to Louisville, who they lost to by 14, their next toughest opponent wasn't rated top 50 this year. TCU literally not only earned their way to the playoff, they beat Michigan in a semifinal before they got slaughtered by Georgia. Tennessee went through an SEC schedule before they went and got blown out by Ohio State. And not only that, but if you want to talk purely in terms of potential, the athletic profile of The Tennessee roster versus Ohio State is such that out of 100 simulations of that game there are many Ohio State blowouts. But there's some Tennessee wins mixed in there as well. I know it's hard to believe based off a one game sample size being what you saw. There is no JMU win mixed into the sample size. Play the game a thousand times if you want to. They're not winning the games. And so for a million reasons that's a bad faith argument, but the least of which not being it has nothing to do with the margin of defeat. It's did you earn the right to be in the game based off logical criteria? JMU earned the right to be in the game last night. The criteria is not logical. Tennessee earned the right to be on the field with Ohio State last year through logic based criteria. So that's the big difference there. I know that doesn't work on a screenshot on Twitter or anything like that, but that's the big difference. Okay, let's talk about something most of us can agree on. If you don't agree on this, then there is no help for you. Kwik Trip is one of the best places on the face of the earth. And in this case it really doesn't matter who you root for. It doesn't even matter what your stance is on the G5. Kwik Trip is a place where you can fuel up, you can stock up, you can fill up, you can caffeine up. Cold brew on tap. Of course. Now look, I always talk about the cold brew on tap. They've just got good old fashioned energy drinks in the fridge if you want that. They got the five hour energy shots at the checkout desk if you want that. But Kwik Trip has fueled our tour all across the country this year. The Fall Don't Lie Tour was in Norman, Oklahoma and and in College Station, Texas over the past two days. I mean, that was a I'm not going to say it was a tough turnaround because honestly, we're blessed to be able to travel the way we do. But we were in Norman and we didn't leave until like midnight. So after, actually after that. So we got down to College Station pretty, pretty late and that was an 11am kickoff. So quick Trip made that possible and then got us home last night. And we appreciate them. And I have not decided what quarterfinal game we're going to yet because we do have a little time. And there's the small matter of Christmas between now and then, which I'm told we're going to have on the 25th in the United States this year.
- [24:09]
FanDuel Ad Voice
We can.
- [24:10]
Josh Pate
We've confirmed that date, by the way. Nacos didn't even get that we scooped him. But Quick Trip will be there for us all. I got a Quick Trip Christmas ornament, by the way. Pretty proud of that thing.
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Coca-Cola Ad Voice
What a matchup we got, y'.
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Josh Pate
All.
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Coca-Cola Ad Voice
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit chant. Echo drum beat. Everybody showing that school pride. Game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there.
- [24:46]
Josh Pate
Mmm.
- [24:47]
Coca-Cola Ad Voice
Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans are school colors everywhere. And an ice cold Coca Cola, that's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [25:11]
Pluvicto Ad Voice
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- [27:08]
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- [27:34]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [27:38]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Los Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [27:41]
Matt Rogers
Hey Bowen, it's gift season. Ugh.
- [27:44]
Bowen Yang
Stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me?
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Josh Pate
Exactly, honey.
- [27:49]
Matt Rogers
I' but you're right. Holiday gifting is stressful.
- [27:52]
Bowen Yang
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
- [27:55]
Matt Rogers
Wait, what about the guide we made.
- [27:56]
Bowen Yang
In partnership with Marshalls where premium gifts mean incredible value?
- [28:00]
Matt Rogers
It's Giving Gifts, a series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
- [28:06]
Bowen Yang
Yeah, Cause if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
- [28:10]
FanDuel Ad Voice
Right?
- [28:11]
Matt Rogers
How about something for the people who.
- [28:13]
Bowen Yang
Actually surprise you with categories like Best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto. Psst. She wants a pair of stilettos.
- [28:21]
Matt Rogers
Or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have dying.
- [28:24]
Bowen Yang
To see what those are.
- [28:25]
Matt Rogers
And you won't believe their prices.
- [28:27]
Bowen Yang
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
- [28:31]
Matt Rogers
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself, honestly.
- [28:34]
Bowen Yang
This is the guide for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
- [28:38]
Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's.
- [28:41]
Bowen Yang
Giving gifts gift the good stuff at Marshall's.
- [28:47]
Josh Pate
I got a ton of college football playoff reaction and it spills out above and beyond the rapid reaction videos we did. So if you're looking for just immediate takeaways from the game, I got the Alabama, Oklahoma one up on the channel. I've got Miami A and M up on the channel. Those were like 10 minutes. I had a ton of spillage that I wanted to talk some more about. So I'm just going to bounce around here. A lot of people doubted Alabama coming into the playoffs. It was completely reasonable to doubt Alabama coming into the playoff. I had a lot of fun with the build up to that game because I picked Oklahoma to win it. Now anytime we pick a game on this show, everyone sees it. And then when you're right, no one really says much. When you're wrong, the team that you were wrong about, when they win, they let you hear it. So that was no different the other night. So we're on the field, they're in Norman, Alabama's down 17 0. Then they come back, they win the game. And afterwards. Now granted, it was playful. Some of the coaches, some of the players, oh, man, you doubted us. Now the fans were dead serious. Oh, man, you doubted us. Absolutely I doubted you. Did you watch Alabama down the stretch? Did you watch the SEC championship game? Who in the world wasn't doubting Alabama? So what it was up to you to do was silence doubters by playing differently than you had. Because the original, you know, the, the Georgia game, the Auburn game, even to an extent, left a lot of reason for doubt. And you found a way to get off the deck and you did that. Now you got to do it three more times and they'll give you a national championship trophy. That's how the tournament works. But it was going to take something extra. To me, if that team's going to make a run in the playoff. Like if Alabama is going to do something special in the playoff. I think it was going to take something extra special to happen or extraordinary to happen. But you never know what that thing is. To put it another way, Alabama sort of cruising along at the trajectory they were, was not going to make much noise in the playoff. They get down 17 to nothing and you're thinking to yourself, oh, this is terrible. But if you believe that there's something extraordinary that has to happen, like a trigger mechanism, you Kind of need to get put in that position. And if you don't answer, oh well, your season's over. If you do answer, it's a lot like Ohio State, Michigan last year. The Michigan loss, although you can't quantifiably prove this, probably propelled Ohio State to becoming what they became in the playoff. So with Alabama, the first quarter of the Oklahoma game looked like the fifth quarter of the SEC championship game. They had three, three and outs. Those drives started on their 12 yard line, 14 yard line and 25 yard line. Just like the SEC championship game or the first OU game they get down OU starts to tilt the field. Conversely, Oklahoma had scoring drives that started on their 41, their 37 and the Bama 46. So some of the same themes started to be the themes of this game. And then it happened. The extraordinary thing happened and over the span of five minutes and change they go from dead in the water to brand new ball game 17 all. And then defense took over five sacks in this game and October tie showed up, which should be a trademark. October Ty Simpson was a legit Heisman. Ty Simpson, October tie kind of showed up in this game, didn't he? Got himself a little bit of time still dealing with a pretty ferocious OU front place was full throat. It was a very very tough environment to walk into. And Ty Simpson makes the throws and it's look, Lotseer Brooks was a guy we talked about in spring. We went down there, watched him practice in spring and I came back and I Talked about number 17 used to be Jalen Waddle at Alabama. The guy wearing 17 there now is lots here. Brooks and that staff continued to tell us he's a true freshman. Not going to take the world by storm first half of the season, but especially back half of the season that's where that guy, if he doesn't hit the freshman wall, he could show up and he was there and you need him because you have not gotten remotely what you would expect to get out of Ryan Williams and so you have to have backfills. It's pretty impressive by the way that if you have a talent like Ryan Williams that's not performing up to expectation, you can still function as a pass game, but that's cause you got five and you got number one and you got number 17 and Cuevas was back. So it's just interesting. We're going to talk a little bit later in the show about how that matters moving ahead because it could just be that Bama was playing a mediocre team that was shooting itself in the foot and they'll get boat raced by Indiana. I guess that's possible. It's also possible that they were a rubber band that kind of got pulled back. Pulled back, pulled back and then turned loose. Don't know. That's why we're going to play more games. It is wild when you think about Oklahoma and how. I don't know how to put this. It's crazy when you think about Oklahoma and how detached their defensive DNA is with their offense. Normally teams are very complimentary, especially the ones that are around this late in the season. They're playing a very complimentary brand of football. And normally if you've got really, really high level defensive play, it's coupled with a legit ground game. Oklahoma has high level defensive play and they can't run the ball. It's just kind of weird. You could say that to an extent about Bama as well. It's very weird. And those two played each other, you know, so it may be that that, that versus that canceled each other out. And either team that profiles like that stands to get killed when they play teams that are more complimentary and more balanced. Could be. We're not necessarily picking that game tonight. But they finished with 33 carries for 55 yards in this game. Oklahoma did. I expected them to get better running the ball this year. They got worse. Statistically, they got worse. And it's crazy because you remember in the spring you're talking about them going to the portal, they get odd out of California, out of Cal, and he never is really a factor. I don't know, man. I just thought this year that would really ramp up. But offensive line is still a pretty chronic issue for him. I just don't understand how that could be a chronic issue for Oklahoma multiple years running. I don't know. It just doesn't square with me. And yet they still made the playoff. So it sounds doom and gloom because that's the way it always sounds when you end a season. It's not that. It's not that. But there's a lot of good. But there's still a lot of climbing to be done. But if you remember, again, in the preseason, people were looking at Oklahoma. They saw a really tough schedule. They. They didn't know about this Matier kid that was coming in from Washington State. They're bringing the coordinator with them. Had a pretty good year, had injury and so it went up and down and up and down. Defense did what it was supposed to do. You just got to capitalize on having that kind of defense we were also in College Station Yesterday for Miami's 10 to 3 win over Texas A and M. Again, I did the full reaction on this already on the channel. So this is like, in addition to that, I said I think 50 times during the game. Corey Heatherman's name, that's the Miami defensive coordinator. Do you remember last year how much of you, all of you Miami fans, do how many of you remember last year's Miami team? Cam Ward just throwing the ball all over the place, running the ball all over the place, felt like they scored 40 a game and they needed to because they were giving up 40 a game. Can you imagine a year later or put yourself back in your shoes last year and imagine me telling you, a year from now, Miami's going to make the playoff and they're going to go on the road in the first round, face a legit opponent, an opponent that was top five very late in the season. Their quarterback's going to barely top 100 passing yards. They're going to put 10 points on the board and that's going to be good enough. Imagine me telling you that they could not stop Molasses in December defensively last year and now they're casually going on the road and just completely vice gripping people. Now they got a challenge ahead with Ohio State, but they vice gripped Texas A and M. They put, they put Marcel Reed in a position where he did not take the game over with his legs at all. Miami's done that all year. We documented five mobile quarterbacks that had a combined 74 rushing yards against them this year. And they did more of the same against Marcel and they made him throw the ball and he threw interceptions because that's what Marcel Reed did multiple times, four out of his final six games. But still, when you talk about the, the low output day that you got from Carson back and that's still good enough to win this game. Crazy, crazy. Double thumbs up, full throated clap for Miami's defensive staff. They had, I didn't see any pre snap issues and that place was insanely loud. Talked to, talked to Miami a little bit after the game and they were talking about changes they had to make in order to make sure they could function in that environment because you could easily see five or six false starts, you could see a procedural mess, you could see miscommunication. You could have seen all that being an issue and it wasn't for Miami and that staff and those players deserve a ton of credit for that. Now moving forward, look at the line of scrimmage in the playoffs, O line, D line combined. Does Miami have the best combination of that of any team left in the playoff? I'm gonna leave that open ended. Cause they're. They're about a 10 point underdog to Ohio State. So just. We'll break that game down later a little bit. But congratulations to them. Four consecutive years of progress. Now that kind of solidifies it. It would have been debatable if they lost yesterday, but they just won a playoff game. First time making the playoff, first time winning a playoff game. A lot of people said that's the biggest Miami win since the national title game of 2002. I don't disagree with that. And that now solidifies four consecutive years of climbing the ladder under Mario. I think it was five wins to seven wins, to a couple of 10 win seasons. And now this 10 win season has a playoff win. So 11 wins. Hats off. And now a very, very tough task ahead. How will Mike Elko assess his quarterback situation coming out of this game? Coming out of the season? You watched Marcel Reed yesterday. There was really nothing happening. It's a tough defense to go against. Get it? But he only threw for 225 or more in one of his final six games. Four of his final six games had multiple ints. Marcel Reed is like a phenomenal person, phenomenal kid. He is not a bad football player. I had a Heisman ticket on Marcel Reed. It's always like feast or famine when you talk about guys. It's not that there's not famine at all. When he played really, really good teams, they sort of locked down on him. And you got to be a really, really good player to sort of break through that ice. He's.
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FanDuel Ad Voice
He.
- [40:12]
Josh Pate
He hasn't been that. I don't want to talk about his ceiling because I don't know what that is, but he was not that this year. All right? So you got to look at that. Mike Elko knows way more about his personnel and his team than me. He's losing his offensive coordinator. They got to look at Marcel Reed. This is one of those conversations we talked about when we entered the NIL era. You're basically professionalizing college football. And it doesn't make me feel great because I think that college football should feel different than the NFL. College sports should feel different than pro sports. But when you professionalize it, you start to have really different sounding conversations than you used to have in college football. Because this 10 years ago would be. Marcel's just got to get better. We got to hope he makes a leap this year to next year. And the staff's got to get behind him and support him, got to build around him. Now it's, well, if he's not good enough, we'll just go get a guy out of the portal and we'll shake hands with him and tell him to be on his way. I don't know that that's going to happen. What I'm saying is it's a conversation that's going to happen in that building. It's absolutely a conversation that's going to happen. And that's a place that spends a lot of money on football players and that's a place that would be very desirable for portal quarterbacks. And so that's why I'm asking it open endedly. That's what Mike Elko and his staff have to figure out. It could be that they look at Marcel and they say, no, absolutely not, we're 1,000% behind him. And if that's the case, great, I'd prefer it to be that way. But I don't know that it's just some slam dunk that it's going to be that way. You know what's wild is think about how different the 6 seed was versus the 7 seed. A and M was the 7, Ole Miss was the 6. Therefore Ole Miss got to play Tulane and A and M had to draw Miami. And you know, it was funny. Like people, people have their jokes about Miami. When we get to the playoffs, I think about players, I don't think about your record, I don't think about anything. Because very, very clearly Miami, the version of Miami that played SMU or the version that played Louisville I don't believe was the same version that played yesterday. They play very, very much up to an opponent in those situations. That is something that is an entire separate conversation. But I was, I watched much of the second half of this game with Rhett Lashley who was there doing work for ACC Network. I mean they beat Miami earlier this year. And just to hear the conversation, Jimbo Fisher standing right there as well, to hear the conversation between those guys, oh man, if I could just record that, we could sell those for 1995 apiece, easily. Just the unedited, unfiltered, off the record coaches conversation. But I did not do that because my battery was low. But yeah, I think that when you got that caliber of player in the playoff, then I didn't really care that they lost two games during the regular season. That is an extremely tough draw as a first round opponent. So also A and M was dealing with Staff churn. And I don't know. I didn't listen to Elkos postgame. That staff churn at A and M is no joke. They're not the only ones dealing with that. And by that, I mean their offensive coordinator has taken another job, their defensive coordinator has taken another job. Now they're still there. You know, they're coaching through the end of the year. Those guys, full focus, are not in the game. They're just not. Not in just the game. The prep leading up to the game, you've only got so much focus. And when you're trying to put together a whole new staff, like Colin Klein going to Kansas State, how in the world do you think he's going to be fully dialed in? This is no criticism of Colin Klein. If I were him, I would have taken the Kansas State job. And if I were him, I'd put as much time as I thought was necessary into prep. But my future is as the head coach of Kansas State. And I'm trying to staff and I'm trying to fill that building. I'm trying to look at portal. I only have so many hours in the day. And I'll tell you where it gets really awkward. Where it gets really awkward. Dan Lanning's dealing with this right now is when guys leave your building, it's usually because you've been winning. And you're usually winning because you got a lot of good people in your building. And when some of those good people leave your building, they don't just leave. They want to take others of your good people with them. And so imagine that dynamic. You're Mike Elko, and on one hand, like, you wish your guys well. Good for him. He got a head coaching job. Don't be taking all my guys. I've watched Kirby deal with this, Saban dealt with it every year, and I guarantee you that that happened in that building. So you're trying to prepare for a Miami team's fully locked in, didn't have any staff churn. So that's not an easy thing. Ole Miss in Oregon, we already talked about these games. Oregon basically got work in yesterday. That's what. That's what that amounted to. Whatever you think about the G5, I did a whole separate topic. If you're just watching this individual segment. I did a whole separate topic on this. So I'm not doing the whole G5. Should they or should they not have been in Ole Miss? At least got to exercise the whole Lane Kiffin cloud. Like, if there was anyone over there still mad or angry or they needed that washed clean from their soul. Well, I would imagine emphatically winning a home playoff game did that. If I were an Ole Miss fan, it would have. And I saw Mincey and he looked as happy as a clam. So things looked good in Oxford yesterday. Was there even a cloud in the sky looked, looked like a chamber of commerce day there in Oxford, Mississippi. So congrats to everyone who won. Those were just some more thoughts I had. San Juan, Puerto Rico is tuned in. I can't roll my R's. I've never been able to. Frisco, Texas, tuned in. And Pensacola, Florida. Thank you guys so much. All right. It's a weird time of year. I'm not complaining that it's Christmas time. Far be it for me to do that. And I'm not complaining that it's the playoffs. It's a happy time. We look forward to it every year. I have always wished that somehow there was this alternate universe where we did what we do in December from a societal standpoint, in March, like I wish the NCAA basketball tournament overlapped with Christmas. However, it doesn't. So we get to these high leverage games and your calendar's thrown in a blender. And starting later this week, all the way through the New Year's, that's that period where you never even know what day of the week it is because all of your schedule, all of your norms are not norms. Kids are out of school, you may be off work or you may be traveling. There are random bowl games on at 2 o' clock in the afternoon on a Thursday, which is a good thing. Some, some say bowls are the best of things. Anyway, I say all that to say we're not going to preview these games until after Christmas. We're not going to do the in depth previews until after Christmas. So what I wanted to do was just some early thoughts on these games on the show tonight. That's kind of what we do normally in the playoffs.
- [47:14]
Coca-Cola Ad Voice
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- [47:16]
Josh Pate
All.
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- [48:01]
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- [50:25]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [50:28]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [50:31]
Matt Rogers
Hey Bowen, it's gift season Ugh.
- [50:34]
Bowen Yang
Stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me?
- [50:37]
Josh Pate
Exactly, honey.
- [50:39]
Matt Rogers
I'm easy. But you're right. Holiday gifting is stressful.
- [50:42]
Bowen Yang
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
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Matt Rogers
Wait, what about the guide we made.
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Bowen Yang
In partnership with Marshalls where premium gifts mean incredible value?
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Matt Rogers
It's Giving Gifts, a series of guides filled with premium G. Great value for everyone on your list.
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Bowen Yang
Yeah. Cause if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
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FanDuel Ad Voice
Right?
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Matt Rogers
How about something for the people who actually surprise you with categories?
- [51:05]
Bowen Yang
Like best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto.
- [51:08]
Josh Pate
Psst.
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Bowen Yang
She wants a pair of stilettos.
- [51:10]
Matt Rogers
Or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful, I really shouldn't have dying.
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Bowen Yang
To see what those are.
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Matt Rogers
And you won't believe their prices.
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Bowen Yang
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
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Matt Rogers
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
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Bowen Yang
Honestly, this is the guy for the 20 holiday gifting season.
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Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's giving gifts.
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Bowen Yang
Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
- [51:36]
Josh Pate
Miami, Ohio State, New Year's Eve, 7:30 Eastern kickoff in the Cotton Bowl. Extremely, extremely interesting dynamic here. Not just because early in the season I said that there is no team that really looks physically like Miami and all the Ohio State fans got up in arms about it. Like I said, they look like a bunch of poverty kids running around. I didn't say that. I just said use your eyes, stand on the field, Watch Miami's athletes. I don't see another team that looks like that. Ohio State certainly looks comparable very, very clearly. Okay, so it's not a soup kitchen they're running up there. Yeah, they lift weights too. They recruit elite guys too. They eat well too. Point being, from a pure athlete versus athlete standpoint, this is a phenomenal matchup. Ohio State's team has been, I think, fairly significantly better than Miami this year. If the teams play at the exact caliber on average that we saw during the year, this point spread is right. Ohio State opened as an 11 and a half point favorite. It dropped to nine and a half. I think it's the most intriguing game of the second round and it's the biggest point spread just because athlete versus athlete. I value that stuff in the playoff. Staff edge. Huge edge to Ohio State both in terms of experience and I'm mainly speaking about the experience there. But Ohio State staff is superior until otherwise Proven until otherwise noted. I think that's a totally fair thing to say. I think Mario Cristobal would love that being said publicly and I think it's a fair thing to say. With Ohio State, what's going to change from the Indiana game? Follow up question, does anything need to change from the Indiana game because they're not playing Indiana, they're playing Miami. So does a whole lot need to change? Indiana shrunk the field on them. You guys watch the game. I don't need to rehash this, but there weren't a lot of catbuster explosive plays. There was one of them at the end. I think there was one other play. But overall Indiana said, you're going to have to work to earn it. And they didn't. They put up, what was it, Jesse? 10 points, I think it was. And Julian Saying got sacked five times. Nine tackles for loss in that game. So I know a lot of Ohio State fans watched that and said, are you serious right now? Especially late in the game, we got, we got these guys out wide and we're not allowing them to try to take over the game. You got to let the horses run. It's not enough to have the horses if you just keep them in the barn. You got to let them run. Is that the approach they take? Do they need to take that approach? Because if Miami is as anemic in this game offensively as they were yesterday, they'll get shut out. So in theory, Ohio State 10 points can be plenty. Which brings me to my next question. Is that really Carson Beck? Is that, is that really the Miami passing game? Like, is that, is that the offense? Is that really what we're going to get? I, I know what I watched yesterday, so I'm not being fooled by that. I guess what could fool me is I still believe they're capable of more than that. Like, I think Carson Beck is a better quarterback than that. Maybe it was that Miami knew their defense was locking in and they didn't want to press the issue. Maybe they looked at it and said, fletcher looks good, let's continue to ride him. Especially late. It was incredibly windy there and maybe they thought that we want to be risk averse and we're not going to really put the ball in the air a whole lot. Whatever the case is, like they better be better than that. You just A and M. Defensively pretty good. They're not Ohio State, so you get to remove the wind as a factor and it's not home field. Although I expect Ohio State to travel very well, here, so you get those two edges tilted a little bit more towards you, you're facing a better team. That's the trade off. The key issue for Miami here is yesterday Miami was able to run to win the game. I will have to see someone run the ball to win the game on Ohio State. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying I would have to see that because I haven't seen evidence that that's possible this year. So my guess is no, they can't do that. So if they cannot do that, if that run game gets pretty fairly bottled up, Carson Beck's going to have to win a game for him. I don't know how much production he'll need. I don't know how many points will be necessary. But the A and m game, he's 14 of 20 for 103. Yeah, the conditions change here. So does the opponent. I don't, I don't know. I think it gonna, I think it's gonna come down to him, though. You could, you could say it comes down to saying, I really think it comes down to Carson Beck. The secondary skill players are another thing to watch here because Jeremiah Smith's the best player on the field, probably. Although Miami's actually got some freak show athletes that could argue that it would be like different positions, of course, but past Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State is still more effective and deeper than most teams are with their wide receiver one. So they've got options. You get past Malachi Toney and Miami's going to have to have some guys step up in some high leverage spots. But how many points will be enough? So it turns out against Indiana they needed 13 and that was enough because they clamped down on Ohio State and Ohio State did not take advantage of scoring opportunities when they had them. Miami can do all that and more. So again, are we watching a game played in the 20s or low 30s, or are we watching a game where the first to 17 wins? Just some early thoughts. If you want to go to any of these games. I was looking around the secondary market today. If you want to go to any of these games, I can get you a discount on them. I know a lot of you are going to travel to these games. A lot of you have probably never been to Arlington. A lot of you may have never been to Miami. How about that Travel for Oregon, you got to go to Miami. Then if you win there, you got to go to Atlanta. Then if you win there, you got to go back to Miami. I'm sure they're happy to do it, though, if you guys want to go there, I'm probably not going to be able to get you discounted airfare. I can get you discounted tickets. So no matter which of these games you're going to, or if you just want to go to a concert this Wednesday, go to SeatGeek, get your tickets, and right before you check out, enter the promo code PATE, 10P A T E10 for 10% off of your order. I am told many of you, many men took advantage of that this week. And I can say that because I was hanging out with 50 Cent this week. Bradley, I didn't tell you that. I just walked by. I didn't say anything. But yeah, that happened. Next game, take a little chug of water. Which one should we do? If you had to line these games up, how, what order would you go? And it really doesn't matter. Oh, Those are my BCAs from earlier today. I didn't drink them. I'm going. Texas Tech. Oregon. Texas Tech. Oregon. New Year's Day is the first college football game that you will watch in the year of our Lord 2026. It's a noon kickoff in the Orange Bowl. It is the shortest point spread on the board. Oregon favored by one and a half. Now, Oregon last year was kind of where Texas Tech is right now. They had a buy and they were facing a team that had to play in the first round and they got splattered by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. So now it's Texas Tech that got to sit around yesterday. They watched Oregon run it up on James Madison and now they face each other in the Orange Bowl. Is Oregon going to peak at the right time? That was the singular lesson they have to have learned from last year. All of this is new for Texas Tech. This is not new for Oregon. So Texas Tech, all right, that's like the end of that point. Texas Tech, their profile is elite. Their stat profile. So this stuff right here, Texas Tech is elite. Texas Tech's profile is totally isolated to the Big 12. And if I have a concern with Texas Tech, that's it. Now, it may not be a thing at all. What I'm talking about is more of an unknown than a concern. So the big unknown with Texas Tech is most of their stat categories and their stat profile look like an elite team. The problem is they didn't play any one of note out of conference. So this is all isolated to Big 12 play. How legitimate was the Big 12 this year? You have to ask yourself that. And then you look at this stat profile and you decide accordingly what it means to you. They lost one game at Arizona State that was with their backup quarterback. Otherwise they beat everyone by at least 22. Their best rushing performance that they allowed this year. Texas Tech defense's best rushing performance that they allowed was Kansas State and they gave up 126 on the ground about 4 yards per carry. Now I'm going to tell you something. I believe Oregon is going to do significantly better than that on the ground against Texas Tech. Just a thought I'm going to throw out there and we'll talk about it in the game preview after Christmas. Oregon's pass rush, though, is another thing to watch because of the same thing. Texas Tech, their stat profile, everything about them, it's isolated a Big 12 play. So again, I'm going to say that's a question that's not a weakness because it could be that we turn on this game and Oregon is running into a brick wall and that run defense is everything we thought it was. It could be that Oregon's pass rush is really not able to get after Texas Tech like we think it may be able to. And you're saying, hey, it turns out that stat profile fully validated itself. This doesn't profile to be a huge edge for them, is my point. Oregon's pass rush on paper doesn't look like something, according to this team's profile, that should be able to take the game over. Oregon's personnel says a different thing, tells a different story. And so it's different than anything Texas Tech has seen. These kinds of athletes rushing your passer are different than what the Big 12 was able to offer you. So Texas Tech played from ahead virtually the whole year. What happens if they get behind, which means they got to throw the ball a whole lot and Oregon's just able to pin their ears back. I would go a step further. What happens if it's a standard game and just on any random third and eight, Oregon's getting to pin their ears back. What kind of pressure does that put on Baron Morton? Can he win? High leverage situations. He didn't have many of them this year. They didn't get pushed a whole lot this year, which is a testament to them. They were dominant in the Big 12. That's a good thing. I absolutely believe they'll be able to scale that kind of performance here. It's not like it's some blowout game, but it is something to watch. Oregon is dealing with the same stuff that Texas A and M just dealt with. Remember, both coordinators have taken head coaching jobs. So they're going to be there. Will Stein, Tosh Lapoi, they'll both be there. But mentally are they there? That sounds insulting. It's just common sense. If I'm taking a head coaching job, I don't have my full focus on Oregon right now. I don't. You wouldn't either. Nobody would. So that's not. I'm not blaming them. No one would. Is that a real factor? Yes. How real a factor is it? We'll see. This is the number one portal class from this past year versus the number four portal class. Texas Tech number one, Oregon number four. We got to keep a close eye on that injury situation for Oregon. Evan Stewart, do we think we get him back? My guess is we're going to see him. That's my guess. That is not informed. I have talked to nobody in Oregon about that recently at least. But I think that we will see him. Texas Tech has four wide receivers with 45 plus catches and 550 plus receiving yards. So they don't have that one dominant like surefire wide receiver, one guy. They just got a lot of guys they can spread the ball to, which is interesting. This game right here, the fact that this is the first game and it's. It's like traveling to another country for both fan bases. It's going to be a lot of fun. Lot of fun. That's, you know. You know to have a playoff game kick off at 9am Body clock time is pretty fascinating. I didn't think about there that there for Oregon. I'm going to get to the other two games. I do want to talk about the portal for a second. The transfer portal is just churning away right now. Technically it's not open yet but guys can announce their intentions and we're still putting our ear to the ground. We're hearing a lot. So Josh Hoover, TCU quarterback, multi year starter. He's going in 3,000 yard passer this year. Indiana looks to be the clear favorite here. Pete Nacos does a great job of following this stuff which I don't really get because I don't know that Pete has any more hours in his day than we do and yet he still finds time to track all this stuff as well. So Indiana looks to be the clear favorite according to Nacos and stands to reason because this is going to be the third cycle in a row now where Kurt Signetti is going to go to the portal for a quarterback. Missouri, according to Nacos at least. Missouri and Tennessee probably a factor here as well. But I mean, there's proof of performance right now with Indiana and that is a very, very coveted spot to land in. Like right now, I picture the quarterback recruiting process for Indiana as more of a selection process. I picture them hearing this a lot and it's portal quarterbacks or their agents saying, hey, can our guy come play for you? I would do that so I could see that. Big developments in State College. Chaz Coleman, big time edge player going to go in the portal. He was a rotational guy as a freshman. Jesse thinks that he's going to be the future Abdul Carter or at least he has the high end potential to be that he showed flashes of elite ability this year. Ohio State sounds like the favorite here. There's some people out there who want that rule where you cannot transfer from one team to another in the same conference. But that rule doesn't exist right now. So he is free to go to Ohio State. He's from Ohio. He's the number two player in the portal. 64246. Penn State wants to retain him. So to be clear, if you're not following this stuff, this is not a situation where Matt Campbell came in, looked at the personnel, overlapped with their system and said, we don't really have room for you. We don't really have a role for you. No, doesn't sound like that was the case. So it's Sam Levitt as the number one overall rated player in the portal and Chaz Coleman, number two. Really good player, future star may very well be headed to Columbus, Ohio. We'll keep an eye on it. Rocco Becht, he's in the portal. This is not a shock. He's been at Iowa State for a few years now. Matt Campbell, Guy Campbell goes to Penn State, quarterback goes in the portal. You've got to think Penn State's going to play a major factor here. Excellent player in fourth quarter moments. Excellent player, very heady player. Really high floor player. Like if you add Rocco Becht there, there is no crash and burn season unless he gets hurt. And so you get a high floor but a very next level mentality too. Kind of thinks more like an NFL guy. He's a. He's a coach's kid and a friend of the program. Anthony Becht, by the way. So he's a coach's kid. So it's not a shock. I would say Penn State until otherwise noted there. But what's fascinating is Beau Prabula went in the portal as well. So Bo Prabula was Drew Allers back up at Penn State. He transfers to Missouri, played last year until he got hurt. And this was a surprise to me. I did not know this was coming. I didn't see this coming. It kind of caught me by surprise. Last couple of days now, Nacos has talked about Virginia Tech. Pete Nakos on three's Pete Nakos has talked about Virginia Tech. And it takes about half a second for you to think about that and say, oh, that's right, James Franklin went to Virginia Tech. They're going to be in need of a quarterback. Maybe Bo Prabula goes there, maybe he does. It's not the craziest concept in the world, but there's another quarterback. I got my eye on a guy that I used to be so high on and who knows, maybe I haven't lost all hope. Aiden Chiles, who, who followed his coach from Oregon State to Michigan State, well, Jonathan Smith just got fired and so Aiden Chiles, he's hitting the portal. Cincinnati and Nebraska are sort of the early names out there. And there's this part of me, maybe it's a personal flaw. I can't give up, I can't quit some guys. And Aiden Chiles has just got something about him. I can't quit. And all of my instincts are saying, don't do it, don't do it, don't do it. Wherever he goes, I'm probably betting an over win total immediately. So yeah, the portal, it is, it is Christmas season and portal season. It opens officially, I think January 2nd. But let's just be real that things open right now. All right, let's get back to these games. Happy you're with us. By the way, if you're watching live, thank you so much. I'm just going to tell the live chat. Hello there. So it's Alabama, Indiana in the Rose bowl, huh? New Year's Day, 4pm Eastern kickoff. Indiana. I told you they were going to be favored by about a touchdown. We told, we told you that before the Bama OU game happened. Indiana is a 6.5-point favorite at FanDuel right now. Do these teams have the three best wins in the country this year? Indiana went on the road and beat Oregon soundly. They beat Ohio State and Bama went on the road and beat Georgia. I think A and M going to Notre Dame. That's up there. I think these are the three best wins in the country this year and all three belong to the participants of this game. So Alabama is facing a really good defense here in Indiana. Indiana has really kind of stunned some people this year. The one thing I will say About Alabama. They will have a very tough time against Indiana. Indiana will not stun them with the quality of defense they play because Bama's played good defenses. They've played like an inordinate string of really high level defenses. They played Georgia twice, one of them on the road, the other one in Atlanta. They went to Auburn, they just went to Oklahoma. They went to Missouri when Missouri was healthy. They have faced some really, really high level defenses. So Indiana's defense may have a great day here. It'll just be because they're very, very technically sound and they execute at a high level. It won't be because it's a dash of cold water to Bama's face that stuns them. It won't be that. It is that for most teams, Indiana plays the wide receiver rotation for Bama with Ryan Williams having the struggles that he's had. That's interesting to watch because with lots of Brooks coming on and Josh Cuevas now with another nine or so days, 10 or so days to get healthy, I think that's something to watch only because it's kind of something unique. Now Ohio State had a great group of receivers as well. Ohio State didn't go into the game thinking we've got to throw the ball to win because Ohio State believes they can run the ball fairly effectively. Alabama knows they can't. So Alabama goes into this game, they'll run the ball to maintain play calling balance. But Alabama already knows they got to throw the ball to win. So they'll be committed to it a little bit differently than Ohio State was, is my point. Jam Miller played, I think 18 or so snaps the other night against Oklahoma. Really interested to see again what another nine or ten days means for him. They bought another week and a half for health. There was no team that needed it more than Alabama. That was kind of the thing going into the Oklahoma game. Now I picked Oklahoma to win the game, but I did say if Alabama wins that game then it becomes really interesting because you felt like they, they had enough time to get some guys at least on the field. Against Oklahoma, those guys were still not 100%. If they can get through that thing relatively healthy, they don't suffer any more catastrophic injuries. They're going to give themselves about nine or 10 more days. That's when it really gets fun. That's when you may start to see Alabama at the level at least that they played at mid season. Is that good enough to beat Indiana? I have no idea. The Indiana defense has got pressure all year. The Indiana defense is Number one in the country in pressure rate. Now there will be people who look at that and say, yeah, but that's because Indiana got big leads on people all year and teams had to throw the ball to try and get back in games. Therefore those were situations that were tailor made for Indiana's pass rush. True. Doesn't matter. That's the game script Alabama has to follow no matter what. Most teams resort to throwing the ball because they have to throw it to stay in the game. Even if this game's tied, even if Bama's up by three or four, they got to throw the ball just because they can't run the ball. So you're going to have Bama in the same position Indiana wants him in and it's going to come up or it's going to come down rather to that offensive line doing what they were able to do a little bit in the second half against Oklahoma and then Ty Simpson doing what he did in the second half and towards the end of the first half and trusting protection and stepping up in the pocket a couple of times and making some throws. That's the key to this game to me because it decides whether we're going to have a four quarter game or whether Indiana just makes it boring in the second half. Which is again surreal to be saying about those two teams based on what the past 150 years have taught us about college football. How good will Fernando Mendoza be? Guy just won the Heisman trophy, but against the top three passing defenses that he faced this year, those were Ohio State and Oregon and Iowa. He was under 240 passing yards in all those games. Threw at least one pick in all of those games. He did have some key plays like the Penn State touchdown pass. Yeah. Took a huge hit to start the game against Ohio State and still ended up winning the thing. So he hadn't been bad. He's actually been good. He's facing a very good defense here. Alabama's played very good, very situationally great defense this year. And so you got to ask, how good is he going to have to be? Just played Ohio State and 13 was good enough. I think you'll need more than 13 to beat Alabama. How good does he have to be? How good is he able to be against Alabama? This one's going to be really fun, man. The Rose bowl sec, Big Ten out there. I know that just. It just warms the heart of a portion of America. So maybe we'll go to that one. I don't know. I haven't decided yet. I have decided this. I was at two games this weekend. I saw an alarming amount of our Christmas merch. Partly because it was freezing in Oklahoma. No, it's just windy. And also partly because it looks really good. So a lot of you have gone to paintstatematerial.com and you've snatched up the Christmas gear and I appreciate it. It means a lot when you guys are wearing it because there's only like a microscopic chance that you're going to run into me at a game. So a lot of you come dressed in case you run into me at the game. Which begs the question, how many people are coming dressed like that to the game that don't ever get to see. We don't ever get to see each other. I appreciate you even if you're doing that. Thank you. Look, it's December 21st right now. Do not waste time. Paystatematerial.com There's a QR code right there. But if you're listening on podcast or you just don't trust QR codes, I just gave you the website. All right, let's continue. More game, more game to talk about. Singular. Sorry. Nose is stuffy. Georgia and Ole Miss is the cap game. The capper, if you will, on New Year's night, 8pm Eastern kickoff in the Sugar bowl game already happened once this year. Georgia has opened as a 7 1/2 point favorite. The totals 55 1/2. Stands to reason, I think this final, what was it, Jesse, like 41 to 35 or something like that last time they played this right here. Now this would be the shot at Lane Kiffin. You want to, you want to make Lane Kiffin curl up in the fetal position in a corner, go beat the team he wasn't able to beat despite the fact that he had a two possession lead in the second half earlier this year. Without him do that in the state that he now resides in, no less in the Superdome. The season ended here for Georgia last year. Gunner Stockton, remember he was starting Carson Beck got hurt and they go down there. They played Notre Dame and Notre Dame beat him. So how does it end? Does it end here this year? It will for someone. Georgia sort of made an emphatic statement last time we saw him and now they've gone dark because they earned a first round by. So you didn't see him yesterday or Friday. And so Georgia just emphatically wraps a bow on the regular season. They win the SEC championship game, they're playing their best ball of the season and then just dark. Is that where they Pick up right where they left off. Georgia is an extremely dangerous team. And myself, I'm including me, what I'm about to say, folks just aren't talking about him enough. It's been about Ohio State or maybe Indiana or. I just. I don't know how this works. I don't know how Kirby Smart and Georgia get overlooked. How in the world does the world come to that? But I'm part of the problem here, so I'm trying to talk about them now. Pass rush came on very, very effectively late in the year. They're versatile. They can beat you many different ways. They can outscore you. They can out physical you. Nobody cut the head off the Snake. Several had shots. No one cut the head off the Snake. And I think they've gotten everything they could possibly have hoped to get out of this team in terms of the level they're playing at now. They got to go win the games. That's. That's the potential that's still unrealized. They limit quarterback run. It just takes a high level of precision to beat them. So if you, if you turn that in, oh, George is beatable, but they're not beating themselves. It's a very mature team. It's very player led team. All the things that you would want to say about a team. Ole Miss, however, already played them in Athens and they lost. They forced Georgia to have a career day. And it just so happens Georgia had a career day. Stockton was 26 of 31 that day. For 289. He ran the ball 59 yards. He had five total touchdowns. He needed them. Georgia needed every bit of that. They outrushed Ole Miss 221 to 88. Tight ends were huge in that game for Georgia. Nine catches for 85 yards and three touchdowns. But remember, this was Trinidad Chambliss's first SEC road start. So he's come a long way. This team's come a long way. They showed you yesterday they can move on without skipping a beat. Without Lane Kiffin, they took it personal to be able to prove that it's a neutral venue now. He's got experience. I'm excited to see what the difference is because I think Georgia's a better team than Ole Miss saw earlier this year. So both of them are better in the aggregate, I think, than they were when they played each other. Explosive plays are so big here because Ole Miss is top three offensively in the country in recording them and Georgia is top 10 defensively in preventing them. So we could have a classic on our hands there could have an absolute classic in the Sugar bowl there to wrap the quarterfinal New Year's Day offering. These lines are already available at FanDuel. By the way, Georgia is a 7 1/2 point favorite. If you feel good about it, go ahead and bet it. If you think Oregon is going to run it up. If you think Texas Tech is about to make a statement, you can go bet it at FanDuel. If you have no interest in betting and you just going to check out, if you want to go check out what the lines are, you can do that as well. I just have good news for you. You can get a profit boost on any of your College Football Playoff futures bets there. You can do that right now or you can wait two hours or you can do it tomorrow morning or day after tomorrow. That's fine. I'm just trying to get you a little more bang for your buck courtesy of FanDuel. I technically don't have the power to do it by myself. They're the exclusive odds provider of the show and we appreciate them.
- [79:40]
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- [80:25]
Josh Pate
And now that I've done you a favor, it's just time to break some hearts here. The worst predictions of the season continue. It is a December tradition that ranks right up there with Christmas itself. Some people say. Some people fervently disagree with that. I have in my hand four bold predictions that you guys made under the agreement that if they hit and they rate nine and a half or higher, I will send you a chalice to supremacy. But if they crash and burn, you will be mocked relentlessly. And it's time to go after some folks tonight. First up, Austin from Sheboygan, Wisconsin. Did you really think, Austin, that Ohio State was going to lose four regular season games? Well, yes you did. I know that because you put it on the Internet on May 4th at 7:09pm well, Ohio State didn't lose four games. They went 12. And oh, Ohio State has not lost four games since 2011. And yet Austin thought coming off a national championship win that that was going to, that was going to take place. Now they were losing both coordinators, they had a lot of production to replace, and so Austin thought they were going to fall off a cliff. This was going to have to require Texas upsetting them in week one. If you really just look at the schedule, it was not a murderer's row. So in order for Ohio State to lose four games, they were either going to need to implode like Florida State did a few years ago, which is not going to happen ever under Ryan Day, or they were going to have to have Texas beat them and Penn State beat them and Michigan beat them, and then probably an upset somewhere like at Illinois or at Wisconsin. Instead, every final score looked just about the same with the exception of poor Grambling State. And so that one did not pan out. Austin, that one did not pan out at all, nor did the next one. And we did not have to wait long for this one. Ball Fate Guru from beautiful Medford, New Jersey said Clemson will beat LSU in week one by three plus touchdowns. Clemson did not score three plus touchdowns in this game. They lost 17 to 10. They did not hit 21. In fact, there were only three touchdowns scored in the game. So not only did Clemson not do this, they didn't win the game at all. And it was so bad that Brian Kelly won this game and got fired mid season. Anyway, both seasons went off the rails. They started the season one and three. They then ran off a couple of Wins before losing two more in a row. They finished the season seven and five and it was just a disaster. So no 21 plus no. But man, that game seems like so long ago. It was just a couple of months ago. I just. Lsu, man, people thought they were off to the races. Not so much. Next up, NWS Andrew from Gadsden, Alabama said Texas and OU will play for the SEC championship. They finished number five and number seven in the league. Now one of them still went to the playoff, the other one thought they deserved a playoff spot. So neither had a disastrous season. Both of them finished in the top 20 in the rankings, but they lost critical games and so neither played in Atlanta. I only put a 9.25 on the boldness scale for this. I said only. It's always tough to predict the exact matchup. Now as it turns out, we got Alabama versus Georgia, which if you had to predict the exact matchup, probably would have been a pretty popular pick. But it was not this one. And lastly. Oh no. Razorbackology burner from Hot Springs, Arkansas, home of the Broyles award ceremony every February, shout out. Oak Lawn said Arkansas pulls off two top 10 upsets. Friends, friends. Arkansas pulled off two wins this year and they were against Alabama A and M, not Alabama and A and M. That would be notable. No, Alabama A and M and Arkansas State. And then they didn't win another game the rest of the year. So they won two in a row. They lost 10 in a row. They only played one top 10 team at the time and that was Texas A and M. It was a close game. They lost. They also happened to play Notre Dame before Notre Dame became a top 10 team. And because of the 56 to 13 splattering at the hands of Arkansas, Notre Dame began their ascent to top 10 status. So I put a 9.25 on this one only because I know Arkansas has been kind of plucky in the past. This year they got plugged. Razorbacks do not have wings or feathers, but you understand the analogy nonetheless. All right, that wraps us tonight. Had some whale breaches in the show because I've got a stuffy nose. There's one more for the road. Appreciate you guys. This is our last live show before post Christmas. I was going to say New Year, but no, we'll be back before that. Just stay tuned to the channel because like I know a lot can happen. Michigan could randomly hire a coach so if they do, we'll have rapid reaction videos. Make sure you're following on the socials though. That's the most important thing this time of year at Josh Pate, cfb. Appreciate you so much. I will keep you updated on the show schedule. Again, make sure you're following on the socials until next show. For director Bradley producer Jesse I'm Josh Pate. Enjoy your Christmas. Travel safely, be smart and then we'll lock back in afterwards. Until then, God bless.
- [86:09]
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- [86:54]
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- [86:55]
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All.
- [86:56]
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- [87:16]
Josh Pate
Mmm.
- [87:16]
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- [88:10]
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