← Josh Pate's College Football Show
Josh Pate's College Football Show
CFP Semifinal Predictions + Portal Chaos & Alabama’s Future
01:25:53
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Josh Pate
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Josh Pate
Yeah, we're storming into 2026 as resilient as ever. And the way that you know this is probably, nay, definitely the most resilient college football show this side of, I don't know, Pick a planet is there's no way I would show up after the picks that I laid out in the quarterfinal round if I wasn't resilient. It was a tough quarterfinal round for your guy here. We had to grow up. A lot of us are having to grow up. A lot of us are dealing with some really, really hateful things being said about us on the Internet. And I Have a theory that is. It's a working theory. Partly. I need to tell myself this to make myself feel better. I've got a sneaking suspicion that no one picked the quarterfinals. Right. And I am just being treated as an escape goat, which is even worse than a normal scapegoat. And that's the kind of goat that you use, maybe even like a pinata where you just swing at it because the only alternative is to swing at the mirror. Because the man in the mirror picked wrong as well. Again, this may not be true. I'm telling myself this to make myself feel better. We're jam packed. We're high atop a lovely downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Look at that. Sunday, January 4th, the year of our Lord 2026. And as is usually tradition around here, I will probably say the wrong year through March. So at least I nailed it tonight on the first try. Immunity. It is semifinal prediction night. Whomst amongst us didn't Predict Ole Miss vs. Miami in the Fiesta bowl as part of the semifinals of the College Football Playoff way back in August. Whomst amongst us didn't? I certainly remember being at media days predicting that the Pete Golding led Ole Miss Rebels. Yes, absolutely. I remember predicting that. So we'll talk about all that. Yeah, Oregon, Indiana, they play as well. Portal chaos. It was not a video game that I played growing up, but it is a very, very real thing that we're dealing with now. There are a lot of big names entering the portal even as we speak today. There have been big moves even as we speak, there are big moves going down. We're just trying to stay on top of it all. We are going to talk about a lot of that. We're going to talk about some viewer feedback that we've gotten. Maybe some questions that I think a lot of you are asking. So I just picked some out of the pile. Folks are asking about the future of Alabama. Folks are asking about the future of Ohio State. Somehow folks were asking about Kirby and Georgia. Are they ever going to win another title? You know, like it's AB in college football night. Either you win another title or you're trash. Bad news for Kirby. So yeah, we got a loaded show. We're jam packed as we should be this time of year. They're watching us in beautiful Vestavia Hills, Alabama, Ashburn, Virginia, Salt Lake City, Utah and Toccoa, Georgia. I can't think of any better way for you to start 2026 than by realizing you're not subscribed to the channel. That's not a great way to start A great way to rectify that. Okay. A resolution that you could have over and done with the first week of January is just subscribe to the channel because it's free and it doesn't cost you anything. The nature of free is it doesn't cost you anything and it doesn't sign you up for anything. And it doesn't clutter your email inbox or your spam fold. It just helps us out. Put food on Director Bradley's table by subscribing to the channel. All right, we got a lot to talk about. Yes, I could lead with the portal. It would probably be smart for me to lead with the portal so that nothing changes between now and like 30 minutes from now. But against my better judgment, and because we already loaded it all into the system in there, we're going to talk about the semifinals. Yes, my friends, Oregon vs. Indiana, Friday night, Atlanta, Ga. 7:30 kickoff on ESPN. This is the Peach bowl, and this is a rematch of something we saw in the regular season. We are fueled by quick trip. I'm going to be at this game. That's half of the spoilers that I'm going to give you tonight. We're going to be at this game. And the original jaw dropper of 2025, I think, plays out again. I don't know how your mind processed this game the first time around, but this was the original Jaw Dropper. This was the original outcome of the 20, 2025 season. That really made me go. What? It wasn't just that Indiana won, it was the manner in which they won. And they went on the road to Eugene to do it. Because remember this, this is like the whole new world being sung about Indiana football. Prior to that game, all you had in your mind was Kurt Signetti has turned around Indiana football. But they ran into brick walls against Ohio State and Notre Dame to end the previous season. And then coming into this year, they're ranked pretty highly. They got Mendoza in the portal. Now they got to go on the road. You know, last year everyone said they had a soft schedule. This year will be different because Indiana's got to go against the big boys and they got to go to Eugene and they got to go to Austin. And as it turns out, it was Oregon that had to play them, not the other way around. The burden was on Oregon, not on Indiana. And so from that point forward, everyone's mind changed about Indiana and with good reason. Indiana went on to copy and paste that result several more times. So 30 to 20 the first time around. Now the field is Neutral. And it's like a million miles away from Eugene, Oregon. The psychological dynamic here is worlds different because of what I just said. First time around, Oregon was like over a touchdown favorite. And also, you know, you had the relative unknown. Well, Indiana is not an unknown anymore. Now people are still baffled as to how they're doing what they're doing, which they shouldn't be, but they are. I'm not going to pretend like I had Indiana figured out. Hey, I picked him to lose the Rose bowl, so I don't want to revisit that. But it's actually very, very straightforward as to what the blueprint is there. It's just hard to duplicate because the easy stuff to say is actually hard to do. If I could explain Indiana's DNA in one sentence that they do the easy things to say and the hard things to do. So Indiana, at this point in the year, as we dive into the game preview here, if you're trying to figure them out, they're kind of like a puzzle that's mostly constructed. It may be all the way put together. There may be no beating Indiana at this point. What I mean by that is if you've ever put together a puzzle. And speaking as a former kid, I know our audience to all be former children. Some of you are still kids, but many, many of you have put puzzles together in the past. And, and once you put the puzzle together, there's no open space. You'll notice it's fully put together. No cracks. There are no gaps or anything like that. Now, other times, you've got the puzzle, like 80% constructed and it still looks good. You can still probably tell it's like a picture of the Fox and the Hound cartoon. But there are some missing pieces here and there. Maybe Indiana still has missing pieces. It's just really, really hard to see them. I'm not going to waste the time, but me and producer Jesse, we're looking at this laundry list of stats earlier today, and you're saying, all right, let's spot the flaw. Let's spot the flaw. Is it here? No. Is it there? No, no, no. It's just a bunch of no's. Just a bunch of no's. Now, what you can do is you could count on them to screw up. Indiana is a team full of humans, so they could screw up. Certainly Fernando Mendoza could turn the ball over. He has in a few games this year that could happen. It's just not likely to happen. They're clearly playing their best football right now. They're, to me, clearly the Most fundamentally sound, technically sound team in the country. Wildly underrated from even a raw talent standpoint. I think several weeks ago it was still kind of popular to say, you know, Indiana, what they lack in talent they make up for in blah blah, blah. I don't even know that they lack in talent. I know that they're not littered with first round draft picks, maybe like your vintage Georgia teams or something like that. But hardly anyone's littered with first round draft picks anymore, at least to the degree you need to in conjunction with being a fully formed team. So there are a lot of teams with first round draft picks that didn't even make the playoff to illustrate what I'm talking about there. So you can, it's an AB thing here. You can count on Indiana to screw up or you can be more talented than them and play at an A level, which is what Oregon has to do. That's what Alabama needed to do. That's what Ohio State needed to do. A lot of teams needed to do that. They just didn't do either of those things. Here's the added benefit. If you're Indiana and you come into this game, it's one thing for you to just play your A game because that means you win. But you also are equipped with the knowledge that if someone gets you early on and someone makes you play from behind, you've got that Penn State game in your back pocket. You did that, you know, you got. It wasn't like Texas Tech. Like Texas Tech went wire to wire all year except for the game where the quarterback was out. And so when someone finally put him in a trail mode, they, they couldn't answer. You've been put in trail mode. You had to play from behind, you had to do it on the road and you did it. And for all the disrespect you may give Penn State, Penn State played really high level football that day. So that's the thing about Indiana. They kind of just sit there and they are themselves and everyone else tries to change who they are to try and match Indiana and they just sit there and kind of smile at you. It's tough. And the worst part is after they beat you, they act like they expected to beat you. When the rest of the world thinks it's some kind of upset, they just act like they expected to beat you. It's really maddening. So I go back and I watch the Oregon Texas Tech game again because you're trying to take something from last game. Or you can either look at the Oregon Indiana game or you can look at the Oregon, Texas Tech game, or both and try to say what about that will or won't work against Texas Tech? What Oregon could afford to do against Texas Tech will bankrupt them against Indiana. There were so many wobbly parts to Oregon that were masked by the simple fact that they pitched a shutout defensively. And it is a statistical fact that if you pitch a shutout defensively, you can pretty much do whatever you want to offensively outside of turning the ball over multiple times because the other guy can score if you turn the ball over. So as long as you don't do that, you pitch a shutout defensively, you're good. So Oregon pitches the shutout defensively, which I would find highly unlikely against Indiana, and therefore it was okay. But the problem is if you try and run the ball 47 times and put up 1.9 yards per carry, that's losing you a game Against Indiana, if you go for it. I don't know how many times they went forward on fourth down, maybe a million. Actually it's eight. You go four of eight on fourth down against Tech, against Indiana, you're probably losing that game. And I look back at the first time around because you, you think to yourself, man, Indiana just stoned. Alabama Bama couldn't run the ball to save their lives. Number one run defense in the country. That's what this piece of paper says. I'm not doubting the piece of paper at this point, but we go back and we look at Oregon the first time around. If you look at sack adjusted yardage, they ran it for 4.8 yards per carry. Like Oregon did not have bad rushing numbers. The problem is Indiana got after Dante Moore. So when you add in the sack adjusted and you think about the fact that they were three of 14 on third down versus Indiana and five of those were third and nine plus and their average third down distance to gain was third and six and a half. That's where Bryant Haynes, defensive coordinator, future Broyles award winner, in my opinion, that's where he just gets after you and causes nightmares to become real life. And that's not an area you want to be so fundamental. Key here for Oregon, which I think they can do, is run the ball more successfully than other people have. You're not going to have like a field day running the ball. Candidly, I thought they were going to have more success against Texas Tech. I thought they were going to have way more successful running the ball against Texas Tech than they did. Which is why even though I picked Oregon to win and Cover. I didn't feel great about it because the reasons why I thought Oregon would win were not the reasons they won. They've got to run the ball more successfully here against Texas Tech and or against Indiana and they got to get themselves in really, really third manageable situations. Cause they didn't last time. And that's where turnovers start to happen and that's where that pass rush gets after Dante Moore and that's where his head starts swimming and. And we can't have that. So the other thing about that is it seems almost inevitable that a series of third down and then series of fourth downs will be presented to Oregon offensively again in this game. Now, if you go back a couple of years, I remember being up in Seattle at the Oregon Washington game first time around and there were some big fourth down calls and they went against Oregon or Oregon lost the game. Dan Lanning got criticized, but Lanning never really divorced himself from that attitude. I've sat in team meetings, I have watched Oregon go over situationals the night before games and I have listened to Dan Lanning share his message of the way he sees his team, of the way he sees games. There's no flinching about the overall philosophy if it works out in a game or doesn't. That's football. It is a calculated risk, but it is a risk. But there is no looking back at the last game and saying, oh man, we went four of eight. So we're going to fundamentally alter how we view fourth downs. You know, you got here by trusting your philosophy. You're not going to abandon it, I don't think. But when you look back at the Texas Tech game and you look at the fact that you had drives end on the Texas Tech 25, the Texas Tech 2, the Texas Tech 32 and the Texas Tech 46 because you couldn't move the chains on fourth down knowing full well the situations Indiana's about to put you in. Knowing full well Indiana put enough pressure into Boar's head where he went for it deep inside his own territory. Kirby just did the same because of the pressure that Trinidad Chambliss put on them. I don't know how Dan Lanning's handling fourth down here. I think I know, but I don't know. But if you're Indiana, you definitely make them pay to find out. It's a huge inflection point. I think it's going to be the inflection point here is Oregon success on third, fourth down and the decision making on third and fourth down. I know that Sounds like a very Oregon centric way of looking at it. But that is the way I see this game because I see Indiana just being Indiana. Indiana is, you know, kind of like the constant here. And then teams revolve around them. I don't think I've ever paid this much respect to a team in my life, but that's literally the way I look at them right now. And teams revolve around them, meaning Indiana's just kind of a constant. They just do what they do every week. And then you got a different, different set of approaches that revolve around them, which, which is an insult if that ends up being what Oregon has to do, because Oregon's best should be able to beat anyone. But that's the way I see it. One of the tests of that theory is how does Dan Lanning handle fourth down? The staff edge has to go to Indiana here. I don't necessarily say that because of just the head to head comparison. It's not even a Dan Landing versus Kurt Signetti thing. It's that I'm going to say something here. I can't prove it. I readily admit I can't prove it. I have spoken to nobody about this. You'll never convince me that with all the staff churn and turnover happening at Oregon that there wasn't some residual effect to how much offensive inefficiency there was in that game against Texas Tech. Part of that inefficiency is you're facing a really good team and you're facing a really good defensive front, but you've got an offensive coordinator and for that matter, a defensive coordinator. But I'm talking offense here because they pitched a shutout. So this point is moot when it comes to Tasha Lupoi. I mean, Will Stein is the new head coach at Kentucky and it's impossible for him to pour 100% of his attention and his effort into Orange bowl prep when he is taking a new job. And they've got the portal opening two days ago and I don't. Again, I don't know how to quantify the impact it had. I just think it had an impact Indiana's not dealing with. That is my point. Indiana staff is rock solid already and fully together and to my knowledge, they're not really losing much of anyone. And Oregon can't say that that's why the staff edge goes to Indiana. Not to mention everything Kurt Signetti has touched has turned to platinum so far this year. But I do think that from the Oregon perspective, it's a mistake to focus on Indiana because I still think at your core you have to believe the best version of you is good enough to beat Indiana. But most, most teams have fallen into the latter category this year. Most teams have looked partly because they needed to and they've said, I don't know if the best version of us is good enough to beat Indiana. We probably need to be 120% of ourselves or we probably need this to go right or that go to right. We probably need to be plus one, plus two turnovers. Oregon has no business thinking like that. Oregon's fastball is good enough to force a swing and miss by Indiana. The issue with that as it relates to picking this game is it means Dante Moore needs to go off here. It means Dante Moore needs to have a really great game. Now that doesn't mean throwing for 350 necessarily. It does mean getting some big chunks of yardage through the air, but it doesn't mean going off. It needs to be somewhere between that and what Carson Beck did against Ohio State. Beck had what Jesse like 138 passing against Ohio State. So not a, not a spectacular box score. But when you combine it with the key plays he made with his legs and the fact that they weren't throwing the ball to the other team, that was good enough. So Dante Moore needs to be somewhere between a big time statistical day and what Carson Beck did against Ohio State. It's a big if. When you're facing this defense in this kind of pressure situation and you got to admit, or you got to at least leave room for the idea that Indiana may have surged and may have improved since the last time you played them, you've got to bank on the fact that you're going to get their best. That's. It's a lot to ask. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. The FanDuel number right now is Indiana minus four and a half. Model is a little shorter and that's Indiana minus three. I'm just going to be honest with you. I think the model is wrong on Indiana. Shocker. Shocker. Fundamental reason, this model has been built off as any predictive based modeling in college football would be built off of. And that is ingesting talent ratings. Indiana is just flat out underrated. It's been an underrated roster all year. I think it's underrated here. Model sees a big gap in overall raw talent level between Oregon and Indiana. The answer to this is not to throw the model out. The answer is try to identify the exceptions to the rule the general rule still works. Indiana is an exception to the rule. And because of that, I'm going to take Indiana to win and I will take Indiana to cover as well. That number's four and a half right now. I see it as Indiana winning and covering the current odds to win the national championship. Indiana is the favorite. Oregon's the second favorite, and then Miami. Miami and Oregon have similar odds. Ole Miss a little bit longer there. Yeah, look, there's, there's, there are many cases to be made for how Oregon could do this. I've had no feel on this playoff. I have felt very, very inadequate. This playoff has made me question a lot about myself. And so maybe Dan Landing just makes me question more about myself. This would be a monumental achievement for them, by the way, because, I mean, you could make the argument Dan Lanning's still out there searching for the big win, right? Searching, searching, searching. Because I think back to Penn State last year, Jesse, you remember this? You remember, you guys make the playoff, you don't win the Big Ten, just like Oregon didn't win the Big Ten this year. But you make the playoff and then you win two playoff games just like Oregon did. Oregon beat jmu. Oregon beat Texas Tech. But then when you. Last year when Penn State went up against Notre Dame, they lost. And afterwards, what did people say? Nobody gave James Franklin credit for winning those two playoff games. Why? Because, oh, he should win those games. Once he got to a game that was, you know, coin flip, that's the one he lost up more. James Franklin being James Franklin. Well, you can bank on this. If Dan Lanning loses this game, no one's remembering the two playoff wins. I'm not saying this is fair. I'm saying it is what it is. No one is giving him credit for the JMU win. No one's giving him credit for Texas Tech because he, quote unquote, was supposed to win those games. This is the one he'll get judged on. And if he loses it, there will be. Now, granted, this is low hanging fruit. All right? These are more your window liquor type crowd. They will say, as sure as the sun will rise the next day. Well, what does he want? What does Dan Landing won? You know, they're out there. You may be one of them. So that won't be the take on this show, but that will be the take. So I am predicting those people to say that because I am predicting Dan Landing to lose this game. The Audacity. Good news for Dan because I hadn't nailed a single thing in the last Round or so. Quick trip will fuel us there. We will be there. So, you know, just see. Did you see Signetti and McAfee have a moment? Jesse, did you see McAfee's just bowed up at him and Signetti looks over like Hannibal Lect. Heart rate never above 80, gives him the finger guns and then just goes and disembowels Alabama. If that's what Dan needs, if he needs to find someone to make eye contact with. Now, I don't think the heart rate's going to be below 80, maybe below 180, but I don't think that Dan Lanning's heart rate has ever been that low to begin with. But if he needs to find someone and he needs to do, he could do finger guns. He could do any of a number of finger gestures. And if that's what he needs pregame, we'll be there. Daniel, if you need it, we'll be there for you. Courtesy of kwiktrip. Kwiktrip fueling us. They have fueled our tour the entire year and we will be in Atlanta. That is the Friday night game and we've had fun this year, man. I don't know how many miles we've logged, but Quick Trip has fueled us every step of the way. The Fall Don't Lie tour has been a phenomenal success. I don't know who judges such things, so I'm just going to say it was a success. And we will be in the Peach bowl and that's in Mercedes Benz Stadium in my, in my home state of Georgia. But that's not all because the night before we will be in Glendale, Arizona at the Fiesta Bowl. And guess who's playing there? Miami and Ole Miss. We are guaranteed, ladies and gentlemen, to have a first time national championship winning head coach. And we are still like 16 days away from the national title game. But we already know because all four of these guys are going to be. Jesse, they're all. They would be playing for a national title for the first time, right? I'm not missing anything. I think they would all be playing for it and certainly they would be winning one for the first time. So a lot of miles that we're going to log later this week. Thankfully, Quick Trip is there every step of the way.
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- [29:17]
Josh Pate
With that in mind, let's just roll right into it. Ole miss Miami Thursday night 7:30 Eastern kick ESPN it's the Fiesta Bowl. It is part one of the semifinal matchups. It's. It's kind of like the cannot bowl if you really think about it. I don't know how many times the college football public will have looked at this matchup and said can't. Certainly when the playoffs started, when you found out Lane was leaving, maybe even if you knew Lane was staying, but especially when you knew he was leaving, anyone and everyone said Ole Miss can't win this thing. And I've listened to people say Mario Cristobal can't at Miami since he got there. And now one of them is guaranteed to go play for a national championship and we get to be there for it all. Also, you know what really makes me nervous about this is we've got, I mean, we got a fireball that's loose right now in Trinidad. Chambliss. You don't know. Like I equated it the other night to a runaway hose pipe where you know, you've had that thing pinched and then all of a sudden you let it go and the hose pipes just going all over the place wildly. Water going all over. And you hope that after a couple of seconds the water pressure lessens and then it's just a normal flow coming out and you can pick it up and it's fine. You don't know how much water pressure's built up. I have no idea how long that the hose is just going to fly all over the place. And it really makes you nervous because that's hard to predict. Actually, it's impossible to predict. And so the way my mind works is I always think in terms of future documentaries there. There will certainly be a documentary, maybe multiple documentaries document I made about this Ole Miss team. What I'm trying to figure out in the moment is how will the documentary 10 Years down the Road about the Ole Miss 2025 season be talking about this game Cause we could be talking about it, you know, with revisionist history goggles on, saying, oh man, yeah. People just knew. Once Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss beat Georgia, they knew, man, there was no stopping them. And they went and beat Miami and they won the national title. People could be saying that or people could be saying, you know, no one thought that this team could do anything. And wouldn't you know it, they went down to the Sugar Bowl. Them against the world, backs against the wall. They beat Kirby Smart in Georgia, what a year it was. And they don't even mention the Fiesta bowl because they get run out of the building. I don't know how the documentary is going to go because it hasn't been made yet. So can Ole Miss function without a running game? That's my question. I thought that they ran the ball very admirably against Georgia. Miami's got the number five run defense in the country at this point. There probably were not five run defenses playing at a higher level than Miami. They held Ohio State to 24 carries for 45 yards. They held A&M, 35 carries, 89 yards. Miami also has been excellent against mobile quarterbacks all year. Now with Trinidad Chambliss, he's not a guy even at his best that you're going to count on to run for like 80 yards. What he is doing is he is buying time and improvising and making off platform throws and out of structure throws. But Kewan Lacey, 22 carries for about 100 yards and two touchdowns against Georgia, that was a big deal. Really big deal. At least kept Georgia honest. I don't know that that number is going to be there against Miami. Doesn't mean you can't beat them. But I don't know that that number is going to be there. Which just means there is all the more workload on Trinidad Chambliss's shoulders. I kind of think if this game is played in structure, it just a term I use. You could call it whatever you want to. Like a typical game. If it's played in structure, Miami probably wins the thing by two scores. By that I mean if you just let their offensive line lean on you all day and they eat and it's five and a half yards per carry edge Miami, then they're going to completely choke the game away in a good way for Miami and their defensive line will get after you. This is another game where Miami's got a two way edge on the line of scrimmage. Y' all can put it in your hype video if you want to. I don't care. It was true against Ohio State, it will be true against Ole Miss. And if they are somehow able to keep Trinidad Chambliss somewhat contained in the pocket, you count on the fact that he's not going to be able to just pick you apart with his arm again. If he does, you tip your cap. But the way he killed Georgia with his arm was running all over the place and then utilizing his arm. So if you take the first part of that awake, you just count on the fact that the second part is not going to happen. That would be a game played in structure. If the game is played in structure, that's how I think it would go. Edge Miami. Which means there's very little incentive for Pete Golding and his team to allow the game to be played in structure. There's a lot about the way that team's playing right now that is completely impossible to predict. The way the Georgia game went the other night, the way that Deshaun Watson played for Clemson, the way Johnny Manziel played for Texas A and M. There were moments in games, I would even say, I'm not comparing this player to these players, but from a pure elemental standpoint, there have been moments in Diego Pavia's career where there are things he does, there are things all those guys do that are completely out of the realm of, in some cases, believability, but absolutely out of the realm of predictability. And you look at it and you just say, I don't even know. They are players that make you throw your hands up at a rate that hardly any other player has made you throw your hands up. And it just matters how the plays turn out. The entire outcome of the game depends on how those plays turn out. That was the way that the Ole Miss Georgia game was. I got a. I grew up in Georgia, so I got a ton of Georgia buddies who had like 50 different gripes about the game. And I looked at it and I said, guys, you just got beat by a transcendent quarterback performance. Talk about Mike Bobo all you want to. Mike Bobo's game, if Trinidad Chambliss is held somewhat in check, would have been good enough to win it. Just you. You were on the wrong side of a historic performance. And if that happens again, Ole Miss will win the game again. There's really nothing you can do. There are only so many things the rules allow you to do. Like you can't go put the guy in a sleeper hold. You don't get to drop kick him. You don't it's football. You can get violent. Miami's as violent as any team in the country, but there are limits to what you're allowed to do. So again, Miami running the ball. This is. I'm going to give you a little blueprint here for Ole Miss. It sounds like they're a two touchdown underdog. They're not. I'm talking about a game playing in structure versus out of structure. Miami running the football. They're going to be effective in this game doing it. I don't see any way, just based on laws of physics that Miami doesn't have a good day running the ball. 28 carries for 175 against A&M. That was a top 40 run defense. They had 37 carries for 153 against Ohio State. That was a top 10 run defense. Ole Miss has got a run defense in the 60s. So. So Miami's going to have success here. Now that sounds great and it is great. Okay. I don't try to overthink the room on this. The one thing I will say, there is a trapdoor aspect here from Miami. Here's what it would look like. There could be a game that unfolds here where you feel great, you feel like you're dominating. The stat sheet says you're dominating. And somehow the scoreboard still doesn't look as comfortable as you want it to. And the way it would probably go from a script standpoint is you get after Trinidad, Chambliss early, he's shaky early. So you weather the early storm, sort of settle into the game. It starts the way you want it to and then you realize we could just choke this game to death. And we slow it to a snail's pace and we play the most caveman, brutal form of football that we can cause. They can't withstand it. And you're doing it and you're leaning on them and you're moving the chains. First and 10, second, five, third and one, wrench, repeat. But you just leave some points on the board or some points on the field. You settle for a three instead of a seven. Maybe you put the ball on the ground, maybe you don't convert a fourth down and so you're dominating the stat sheet. But you look up and it's still less a one possession game. And then all of a sudden Ole Miss being the number four explosive play offense in the country and Ole Miss being the number three cat buster play team in the country happens. And I was at the Miami FSU game earlier this year. Now Miami got Out to a pretty big lead. They took their foot off the offensive gas and then FSU just hung around and they could not rev the engine again. So the final score looked closer than the game. Really felt like it was that element. There is a world where that creeps in here and Ole Miss somehow some way is grabbing a lead midway through the fourth quarter and you're looking at the stat sheet saying, how is that possible? That's a way that the trapdoor theory could be in play from Miami here, which just means you ought to be aggressive no matter what. Carson Beck should be a weapon for you in this game. Now you may think to yourself, oh, we want to go more risk averse. You know, we think we've got this thing from a physical standpoint and we don't want to throw the game away. You're not winning the next game with that mentality. Even if you do adopt it successfully in this game. You can't hide your quarterback two games. You may be able to hide him in this one. I think it would serve to your detriment the next game. So you gotta, you gotta roll with the horses that got you here. Otherwise there is a little sliver of light through that door that you leave open for Ole Miss. Now look there. There's also a world where you're down 14 oh to them and you're having to play catch up. I'm just talking about a world where a Miami style of game could even work against Miami. Also, if you're trying to find like a comparable matchup earlier in the season, I was thinking about the SMU game earlier. Now I'm going to render this entire point that I'm about to make moot. But I am going to make the point because I was at the SMU Miami game. That was an 11am kickoff. It was in Dallas. It feels like five years ago. But Miami lost the game. At that point, many people thought their season was over. Kevin Jennings was 2944 that day. 365 yards and a touchdown. He was hurt most of the day too, so really good effort from him. Carson Beck had two interceptions that day. Miami had 430 yards and 20 points. That formula, if duplicated, could work out. Ole Miss could win the game. Here's the problem. Miami woke up. Since then Miami, I am a believer in the fact that they played down to competition at times and they've done that at times over Mario's tenure. But when they need to be up, see that Notre Dame game right there? You will never convince me the Level of play we got against Notre Dame was the same level of play we were seeing from them mid season. They just dipped mid season. They are not dipping right now. And so the level of play that you got from them against A and M and against Ohio State, you're going to get that from them again. Which is why I don't think that results going to be duplicable. Let's take a look what the model thinks and it's a very surprising number. I'm going to be real with you. Miami's a 3 1/2 point favorite at FanDuel. What would you do if I told you the model thinks Ole Miss is going to win this game outright? It's got Ole Miss minus one. Would you believe it?
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Ad Voice
Yep.
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Josh Pate
No, I don't. I don't believe it. I think Miami is going to win the game. I think they're going to win it by seven or more. I am diametrically opposed to the model here because what I think is going to happen is a little blend of both worlds. From Miami they're going to have a two way edge on the line of scrimmage, they are going to get theirs on the ground. Carson Beck is going to have a good decision making type game, be really hard hitting game. But I also don't think that Trinidad Chambliss and I just got to go on Basic Instinct here. I, I don't think you're going to have a copy paste of the magic we saw last game if we do and that's the way they win this game. Just like I said about Georgia, you just tip your cap to him. I think that stuff's really transcendent. I mean I think that's generational type stuff for, for a school and to get two of those performances in a row, I, I will be proven wrong by it happening rather than expecting it to happen. So I'm going to take Miami to win. I'm going to take Miami to cover. If you're going to either of these games or if you're just going to a concert because your team season has ended and you can't bear to watch it, whatever the case may be, you will need a ticket. If they're not going to credential you for this stuff, you will need a ticket or tickets. If you are not a loner and look, people go to movies alone all the time. Why not go to a football game alone? But if you want to go, if you need that social element, you want to take friends, you need tickets, go to seatgeek not just because they are my preferred vendor, because I'm going to get you a discount. So you go there again. This works for any event, not just football. Go to checkout right before you check out, in that little promo code box, enter pate 10p a T E10. Why? Well, it's going to get you 10% off your order of anything $200 or less. And anything 200 or more, I'm going to get you $20 off. Can't get it to you for free. I'm told that that's not a good business model for SeatGeek. However, they will get you a discount as long as you put pate 10 in there. A lot of you have taken advantage of that during the playoff season. Many more, no doubt will this time around. The portal is on fire. The transfer portal has gone insane. Like if you're, if you're a college football player, there's like a 1 in 3 chance you're in the portal right now. Once I'm commissioner, we'll get a hold of this thing. But I'm not commissioner yet. So it's a free for all. There are heavy hitting names. You got to be following Pete Nakos on Twitter. More on that in a second. But Cam Coleman, number one player in the portal right now, wide receiver from Auburn. I got to be real with you. I heard Texas A and M with Cam Coleman like weeks and weeks and weeks ago. So they're still being mentioned. Texas is being mentioned. Isaac Brown is the number one tailback in the portal. And from Louisville, Texas is being mentioned there. And you've seen some attrition. Like you've seen guys leaving Texas. A lot of times you'll see positions being vacated in advance of a guy from the portal joining that roster. And it kind of works the opposite way. It should work, but that's the way the portal spins. That's the way the portal turns, if you will. Chaz Coleman, Penn State kid. Really good player. Number five overall player in the portal. An edge guy. Got an LSU visit. According to brother Nakos, Oklahoma State pulled something off. And it's not. It shouldn't be a surprise because Eric Morris was the head coach at North Texas. He took the Oklahoma State job. Caleb Hawkins was there, his tailback. Number six overall player in the portal. Drew Mestemaker was his quarterback. Number eight overall player in the portal. They're both going to Oklahoma State, which is great news for them. I just wondered were they going to follow, you know, because it's not like he took the Michigan job He took Oklahoma State. Which meant Oklahoma State's going to need to step up. Jesse, tell me something. Now. It could just be a glitch in the system. Did Johntez Williams status just change live on air or was that just me? It did change. Okay, so you're telling me Johntez Williams has committed to Southern Cal even as I'm talking right now? Again, that's why it's so scary to talk about the portal live. I wish Nacos was in here. There's a chair right over here and he could just sit there. Hey, truthfully, he could live in here. Look at this is. It's not real, Brick, I won't lie. But it's a very, very cozy home we have here. All right, Indiana is swinging wildly and it will probably shock approximately none of you to learn that they are landing every punch that they swing with Josh Hoover, TCU quarterback, that's who Kurt Signetti has circled and so he is next in line to be a future Heisman finalist at Indiana. I haven't seen the script. I just assume that's what's going to happen next year. Multi year starter, 7,400 yards and 56 touchdowns in his last two seasons. So he's headed to Bloomington. Nick Marsh, who I was really high on this past year and then Michigan State was terrible. He's headed to Indiana too. And I'm just banking on him being a thousand plus yard guy next year. Give me a lot of. A lot of passes. I'm going to say a lot of balls to go around, but I didn't want to immunity myself. But they're going to lose some guys to the NFL. They'll backfill. I'm just totally confident they got four other kids. So Indiana is making some big moves here. The quarterback dominoes. Fascinating to watch. Think about the current College Football playoff semifinals. Carson Beck at Miami, transfer. Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss, transfer. Dante Moore at Oregon. Once was committed to Oregon, then went back on that commitment and hung out at UCLA for a little while, then transferred back to Oregon. Counts as a transfer. Yeah. Who did I miss, Jesse? Oh, yeah. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana transfer. We're going four of four on the teams that are left having transfer quarterbacks, which is why you need to lock in when we're talking about the portal. Dominoes at quarterback, Brennan Sorsby. Fascinating situation right now. So Brennan Sorsby, Cincinnati quarterback, really good player. Texas Tech's been in the mix. I believe he just wrapped up a visit at lsu. Jesse, check me on that. That was this weekend he was at lsu. Yes. Okay, it's. It looks like it's come down to those two as of the past hour, and it's 7:42pm Central on Sunday night. I've looked at Pete Nikos and Steve Wilt Fong putting crystal balls for Brendan Sourceby to land at Texas Tech. Not done yet. But I trust those two with my life as it relates to Portal Juice. At least I trust those two with my life. Sam Levitt, Arizona State. Looks like he scheduled a visit to lsu. So again, maybe Lane ends up with one or the other. Maybe that's the situation we're looking at here. I told you. Josh Hoover is going to Indiana. Mestamaker is headed to Oklahoma State. All right. Kenny Minchie, who was the backup at Notre Dame, he's headed to Nebraska. Cutter Boley, who was at Kentucky, that's who's headed to Arizona State to take over for Sam Levitt. You got a flashcard. This stuff. You just got to flashcard it. I don't know what else to tell you. Lincoln Kyinholz, who was the backup to Julian Sayan at Ohio State, headed to Louisville. This is great news for him because Jeff Braum has failed approximately never to develop a quarterback. So he's in good hands there now. The name still remaining big names. DJ Lagway visited Florida State. Yeah, that's the hot rumor. Byron Brown from USF still looking at Auburn until further notice with him. Deuce Knight, who was at Auburn, is in the portal. Don't know with him yet. Ethan Grunkmeier was at Penn State, obviously, and I think Virginia Tech would make sense. Those are the hoofbeats we hear when we put our ear to the portal streets right now. Dylan Raiola is still in the portal. So again, remember, like, Miami's going to be a player in this market. Just teams like that are going to be players in this market. So, I mean, there's some big hammers that are still yet to be swung in the quarterback sort of portal pool over here. Penn State has imported Iowa State. It's the best way I could explain it. Penn State has now taken Rocco Beck, who was the quarterback at Iowa State. They've taken his backup. They've taken Marcus Neal, the safety. They've taken. They've. Jesse, they took two tight ends, right? Yeah, they took Bromer, they took Burkle. So they took a couple of tight ends. They took RB1, they took wide receiver one. They took three offensive linemen. They took two linebackers. I detest that. This is how college football works at the moment, but it's the way it works at the moment. And that is when you take a head coach. Part of the thinking behind hiring the head coach is who he can bring with him. And in Matt Campbell's case, it was basically whoever he wants from Iowa State. So that's what's happening there. There's been some movement at Alabama today too, and a lot of them did not surprise me. Multiple offensive linemen have gone in the portal. Form B went in the portal. He started a lot for them this year. Olaus Lennon went in the portal. Like Rico Scott, who's a spot player at wide receiver. I think he can be a good player. He's in the portal. Richard Young, a backup tailback, but Keon Keely, who came on big time for them at the back half of the season as a pass rusher, he entered the portal. And I think Alabama may work to keep Keon Keely. A lot of these other guys is kind of a mutual parting of ways. I think they may work to keep Keon Keely. I'm just going to tell you that one surprised me a little bit only because I know his backstory, because I know Keon Keighley. And so that's a kid who came in as a five star head, was swimming for a couple of years and there was really sort of a come to Jesus moment between he and that staff. And he proved with what he was willing to give up this past cycle that he badly wanted to be at Alabama. And so finally the light clicked on for him this year. And obviously guys who look like him that can get after the quarterback are very few and far between. So of course there was going to be a huge market for him and maybe he's testing that market. Maybe he does leave. I am very curious about that one. Like that's the only name on this whole list here that kind of caught me by surprise. Texas Tech is going to be a big player here. Not with Keely, per se. I don't know, maybe with him. But Texas Tech has a lot of additions already. They're, they're going to be big players. The one thing I'm curious about, like I was talking to Joey McGuire after their Oregon game the other day, obviously like really disappointed. But then they got to dive right into the portal. And like he, he's not seeking my advice as to how he builds his roster, but the one thing that I just think about Texas Tech and the one thing I told him is it was a great year, but you were limited at quarterback. Okay, so maybe they're going to answer that with Brendan Sorsby. Again, we're waiting for official word there, but that would be a big upgrade at quarterback. But it felt like with Texas Tech, there was a giant glob of peanut butter that was put on the bread defensive line, basically, but they didn't spread it out nearly enough. Like they had tons of difference makers along the defensive front, but there weren't difference makers like all over the roster. And I think just it's a live and learn type situation to where you apply the lessons you learned this year and now maybe you spread those resources out over that toast a little bit more. Trust me, with the resources they have or with the peanut butter they have to spread at Texas Tech, you can spread it as far as you want to. It'll still be plenty deep enough. You won't have to have some sparse. Like Toast is even showing right here. We didn't even have enough peanut butter to spread. No, no, no, no. Bear and toast at Texas Tech. But that's not the biggest news. That's not the biggest portal news. The biggest portal news is friend of the program, Shannon Terry, who. Who gave me my shot back in 2019. I got a call from Shannon Terry, who at the time was running 247 sports. He called me cold. He offered me a job. I took the job. I came to Nashville in January of 2020, and he gave me a studio. He gave me resources and believed in us. So we're forever in debt to Shannon. The only thing that's changed now is Shannon Terry runs on three. I am sitting in his building right now. His office is like 20ft away. I would say he's not here tonight. Not a Sunday night guy, but Janetary's done very well for himself financially, obviously. And so he got a little loose with the Twitter fingers the other day. And he takes to Twitter and he says, if you guys get Portal Pete, aka Pete Nakos, to 100,000 Twitter followers by the end of the day, Friday, January 9th, I'll give him a huge raise. Now, look, it's not hard or it's not easy, rather, to gain basically 9,000 followers. Pete needed 9,000. He was at 91 7, so he needed 8,300. That's tough, but not impossible. And so myself and many other people out there mobilized however many armies we could mobilize. And wouldn't you know it, young Peter is sitting here with like 105,000 followers as we speak. So it took him one day, less than one day, and so tomorrow morning, apparently we won't be here, but young Pete's going to walk in the door here and get a huge raise. Basically, what's occurred here is from reporting on kids chasing the bag, Pete Nacos may have secured a bigger bag than any of the kids chasing the bag. And that's what America is really all about, if you think about it. So hats off to Pete. I don't even know how big the raise is. I just. I trust that it's substantial. And frankly, it better be substantial. We. We hold. We hold truth to power on this show. Uh, let's continue speaking. Speaking of which, boy, what a. What an opportune time to drop that line. Brian from Destin, Florida, after watching that Rose bowl splattering, how can anyone think Kaylin DeBoer is getting Alabama back to where Saban had it? I don't know, Brian. I don't know how anyone could expect Kaylin DeBoer to get Alabama back to where Nick Saban had it. Cause he's not going to. I would say it's a waste of time to think that he was. I would say it's a waste of time for Kalyn DeBoer to focus on getting Alabama back to where Nick Saban was. Because I would suggest to you that had Nick Saban stuck around at Alabama, he wasn't getting Alabama back to where Nick Saban had it a decade prior. And that's Nick literal Saban. I don't think Kirby Smart's getting Georgia back to what Kurt. To what Georgia was a few years ago. Dabo's not going to get Clemson back to what Clemson was. It's almost like the entire world has changed. So that's going to be called excuse making. It's not. I got a ton of criticism for Alabama, and I will dole it out in just a moment. Mario Cristobal is the one you guys need to listen to on this. Mario Cristobal. I remember being down there for, like, spring practice three years ago, and I was sitting in his office, and someone had asked him for the umpteenth time about getting the U back. When are you going to get the you back? And he answered the question diplomatically. And then when he wasn't on camera, I didn't ask him. Someone asked him. And when he wasn't on camera, he just let loose. And he said, I'm so tired of people asking me, when is the U gonna be back? And he looked me dead in the eye and said, the U is never gonna be back because they're asking for something to reemerge. That's impossible to reemerge. That was another generation. That was another time in college football that's come and gone. It's impossible to replicate what we did here in the late 80s, early 90s. I'm not focused on bringing the U back. I'm focused on building what the you will be. That's what he said. And then three years later, wouldn't you know it, they're playing for a shot at the national championship later this week. That is exactly how Kaylin DeBoer should be thinking at Alabama. It's not. How do we get Bama back to the way Saban had it? You're not going to. So you can waste your time. You can have all the expectations in the world. You could pay a guy $10 million, $15 million. You could pay him $15 billion. They're not going to be what Saban was. Saban could leave the game day set, come back to Tuscaloosa, and he would never in a million years recreate what he created. They'd be good, but they wouldn't be insurmountably deep. Their twos wouldn't be better than your ones because their twos would be playing for you because that's how college football works now. So having said that, I think Alabama will be fine under Kaylin DeBoer. I don't. I haven't changed my mind on that. Maybe some people have. That's fine. Certainly after a 383 drubbing in a playoff game, that's the time to change your mind. Or that's the time that you would expect people to change their mind. So I think Alabama will be fine. I'm basing all that on expecting Kaylin DeBoer to address what are major, glaring, obvious issues. I do storm chasing a lot. So in storm chasing, we have something called stp. We have significant tornado parameters, and you need a certain combination of those things to be in place. And there's a very, very fine line between having a big tornado outbreak and just nothing happens that day. It's a total bust from a forecasting perspective. And when the day is a total bust, you can get fooled into thinking, oh, those forecasters have no clue what they're talking about. No, they do. It's just a very fine line. And they're very, very volatile ingredients. And you could have four of them in place, but then the fifth one is lacking and the other four don't matter. And football teams are kind of the same way because there's a lot of good about this Alabama team. I thought there was a lot of progress made with this Alabama team this year. But when you can't run the football and when you lack toughness to go head to head with teams that are playoff caliber, those have to be non negotiables. And that's something I fully expect him to address. And I expect him to address it twofold. Number one, top down, questioning the mental approach that that program takes and number two, addressing staffing issues because I think there's some really good people in that building and there are probably some other people that don't belong in that building and there are no perfect staffs out there, Indiana notwithstanding, at the moment. But it's up to the head man to address that. I'm basing my belief that Alabama's going to be better down the road on the concept that he will address that. I mean, I'm very, very confident that you'll see staff moves there in the not too distant future. And then the third thing I would ask, and this is a big problem, but it's one that you can't really answer externally. So I'm just asking it open endedly. Anyone want to circle to me the alpha leaders on that Alabama team this year, who would that have been? Who would that have been? You know him in the past, like your Jonathan Allens in the past, guys like that, who was that on this team? Who is that out of the players who may return, who is that? Because you guys know at Alabama or at Georgia or at Texas, any of these big time programs on your good teams, when I ask you that question, two or three names just rattled off. I don't know that you just rattle off names with this Alabama team. So again, that sounds like excuse making. It's not. It's kind of doing a postmortem on the team. I thought they'd win the Rose bowl, so certainly I swung and missed. So certainly I'm looking at that thing with a magnifying glass. But those are, those are three things that I think he would address. It's just a non negotiable. You've got to be able to run the ball. It's a non negotiable anywhere, much less at Alabama. You've got to have toughness. I've seen a lot of people questioning strength and conditioning there. You don't know what you're talking about. I'm just telling you, you don't. There are 5 million layers to that and 5 million variables and moving parts and there's some Words that scientifically you've never pronounced in your life. And my point is, I think the strength and conditioning component paired with the mental component, paired with the developmental component and then paired with the coaching component, all of those things have to work together in unison. If they're not, it doesn't matter if you have the strongest team in college football, nor does it matter if you have the fastest team in college football. They're going to get put on skates and made to look charm and soft if they don't have the execution and the toughness and the proper development and coaching. But you can't know all of those things. So the layperson's eye turns on a game and you watch Alabama not having punch at the line of scrimmage and you watch them not being able to fire off the ball, offensive line, you watch them not being able to stand up against the run like you want them to, any of a number of things. And the first thing you think about is all strength and conditioning. You have no clue. You have no idea that that's the culprit there. Major lesson to be learned from Indiana. This is one more thing I'll say about them. There's a major lesson to be learned from Indiana if you're Alabama and. But it's not just the execution part. It's not the toughness, it's not the balanced approach offensively. All those are givens to me. What I respect supremely about Indiana is they act like Alabama used to act in a sense that they don't rely on external stuff for motivation. No one should Alabama slipped into this mode. You hear them talk about it all the time. Man, I'd be around the team sometimes, like in post game and they'd be talking about folks doubting them, folks disrespecting them. Like, what are you talking about? You know, it sounds like. It sounds like Clemson and Dabo back in the day when they were first beginning their ascent. The little old Clemson thing, the stuff Dabbo used to always preach. And I had a problem with it then and I spoke out about it then and I said this works right now because people are doubting you. The problem is the better you get, the less they doubt you. And you've built your entire foundation on your primary fuel source being doubt. Well, when it runs out, what sustains you. And as it turns out, due to that and a number of other issues at Clemson they didn't sustain it. And so at Alabama, I just watched them play an Indiana team. And that Indiana team actually has reason to use disrespect and doubt as fuel because people did doubt them all year long. They don't listen to their leadership. Now that guy may coach with a chip on his shoulder, but that's an entire ethos, that's an entire worldview. I can promise you. Indiana didn't, didn't perform at the level they did against you because you doubted them. They performed at that level. Cause that's the standard they work to. That's the standard they hold themselves to. And if there, if there's one criticism that I've had with Kaylyn DeBoer so far at Alabama, you look at some of the losses they've lost us big favorites. You look at some of their wins, Georgia, it's when they're an underdog, they go on the road. 13 of 19, razor sharp efficiency on third down. It should just be consistent every week or it should be a lot more consistent than it has been. And that's the lesson I take away from Indiana. All the other stuff's obvious. You need to be doing that. That goes without saying. But just the proper source of fuel, like the proper focus is one that just focuses on a standard and couldn't care less what anyone's saying outside. You should never be at your best when people are doubting you. You should be at your best when it's Saturday and there's a game to be played. That's when you should be at your best. You should be at your best just cause it's Tuesday and you've got an opportunity and God given ability and it's there to be had. So you're going to take it. That's when you should be at your best. Academy, sports and outdoors, you could be at your best by hanging out there. No one's ever gotten worse by going to Academy sports and outdoors. A ton of people have gotten better. At least you look better and you feel better because you're better equipped. I watched at least two of the four quarterfinal games with a full left cheek. This one right here of ground ball Grape Big League Chew because we got it from Academy. We got the whole. I don't know what it was like a starter pack of Big League Chew. And so I choose to just obnoxiously take the entire pouch of Big Lee Chew and put it in. Makes me feel great, makes me feel mature. I have a spit cup even though it's gum. So the entire ensemble is recreated and you can acquire Big League Chew at Academy. And now there are like 99 million other things you could get There. You could get a kayak there if you wanted to. You just can't chew it while you're watching football. You can get a glove, you know, because it is it is about to be spring because that always follows winter. It's happened every year. It's really easy to predict. You can get all your camping gear, you can get all your spring sports stuff. You can get it all at Academy Sports and outdoors. And if you can't get there in person, that's okay. Academy.com.
- [66:55]
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Josh Pate
No.
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Josh Pate
Good boy.
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- [69:57]
Josh Pate
Let's move on. Got plenty more to talk about some of these questions. Hold on. Let me, let me get some lip balm for this one and. Okay, we're good. The Ohio State one man knows it. Just Howie from Pittsburgh. Howie, Howie, Howie. He said, how was everyone so wrong on Ohio State this year? Like, was it wild to you? How wrong everyone was? A little bit. Yeah, a little bit. I just think the bubble kept getting bigger and bigger once they got past the Texas game. And I use the analogy of the dam all the time and I think it fits with Ohio State here. What Howie's talking about is once Ohio State got past Texas, they were the number one team in the country and they were pretty much just number one the whole year. I had them number one. The model had him number one. Everyone had them number one. And then perceptionally, the gap started to grow between Ohio State and the pack. I fell victim to this, too. The model fell victim to this. So I'm not saying it was a them problem. It was a we. It was a we thing. And it's so easy to talk about this stuff in retrospect, but man, they went through the whole regular season. I'm going back to the analogy of the dam here. Ohio. All football teams are dams. Some of them have a ton of cracks, some of them have a few cracks. But it's not about whether they're cracked. They all got cracks. There is no perfect team. It's all about who faces enough water pressure from their schedule to expose the cracks. Most of the time when you're playing in the Big Ten of the sec, you're going to face several tests that will expose your cracks. I don't think Ohio State did this year. They faced Texas early in the year, and then they were able to just suffocate their way through the rest of the regular season, and they just never faced enough pressure to expose the cracks. Now, it was my theory that Ohio State was calling games the way they were offensively this year because they were well aware internally of who they were, who they weren't, what their limitations were. The outside world didn't care because they just kept winning. Methodically, they kept winning. Matt Patricia comes in there as defensive coordinator, and they don't give up, what, more than like, 16 points in the regular season. So then they go and they face Indiana and they lose, and then they face Miami and they lose and it's over. And of course, because the last two games you saw were losses, people view the season as a failure. I thought they did an excellent job coaching. I always feel this way, though. If you make the playoffs, no one. No one makes the playoffs and has a failure of a season. I know what the expectation is there. Expectation is a funny thing. I've been thinking about this a lot more lately. Expectations just don't matter. They never have. But I've just been thinking about it a lot more like people think somehow if you just raise your expectation level, it forces the production to increase. It doesn't. Production and expectation. Well, let me. Let me rephrase. The production of a football program relative to outside expectation is totally detached. Sometimes they match, sometimes they don't. But if your team wins a national title, it's not because you expected them to. It's because they recruited and developed and executed. That's why they won the national title. And if Ole Miss wins the national title this year and no one expected him to, it also won't matter. So to me, this was an excellent coaching job because if I said it out loud to myself in August, it would have been phenomenal. Remember. Remember in August? Yes. This was going to be a highly ranked team. I think they were number two or three entering the season. But in August, when they're coming off losing an offensive coordinator and a defensive coordinator and the quarterback, and they just won a national title, so there's the risk of the hangover factor. They lost a ton of production. If you were to tell me they're going to go undefeated in the regular season and go play for the Big Ten championship, it's a success, period, point blank. I don't do the recalibration of expectation thing. I change my expectation level of you as the season goes on, but I am not going to all of a sudden expect you to win nine games in the preseason. But then you start off eight. No. So then I say, oh, anything less than 11 is a failure. I don't do that. I'm not saying I called Ohio state to go 9:3. But there was a world where they fell off pretty significantly this year. But they didn't. So if I tell myself undefeated regular season in August, mind you, that means beating Michigan for the first time in half a decade. That's a success to me. All right, so that's the 50,000 foot August view. I, I'm going to make some excuses here. This will be labeled excuse making. That's fine. I'm just sharing to you how I think this season ended for Ohio State. I think The Michigan game 1000% impacted the Indiana game. All right, part one of the problem was Indiana is extremely good, so they're hard to beat. And that's even if Ohio State plays them off a buy. But then compounding matters for Ohio State was they were way more banged up as a team coming out of the Michigan game than they let on. And number two, the Brian Hartline stuff had to, had to detrimentally impact them Heartline. And you've got the distraction of heartline taking the USF job. And that's like in the middle of that week if I remember correctly. I just think that mattered. And then again to just circle back around to the first point. Indiana's really good. So you had to get back up after that Michigan game and they weren't ready for it. I don't know how else to put it, but I do think that played a part. So if that's excuse making. It's excuse making. The Miami game just is boils down to the pick six to me because you're, you're lacking explosiveness. So once you get down 14, oh, you don't really possessed the ability to know, hey, any, any second now we could pop an 80 yard run. That's just not Ohio State this year. Any second now, man, we could have a one or two play drive and boom, we're right back in it. I guess that could have happened because they have aliens, at least one of them on the field at wide receiver. But that wasn't them all year. Really? Really. In these kind of games it wasn't them. And so they knew we were going to need 10 play drives to get back in this game and they put a couple of them together. But that pick six, I mean that's what it's all about. So that's, that's fully your fault. It's not excuse making, but that's how the season ended. I don't view that as a failure. I do think to go back to the spirit of the question, yes, the bubble kept getting bigger despite the fact that they weren't really being tested. And I dealt with it on this show. Like the mere mention of the possibility of Miami beating Ohio State drew some of the most hateful comments we've ever gotten. And those people consequently have disappeared. But you know, there are a lot of folks whose opinions I supremely respect who just work themselves into the concept or the idea that Ohio State not invincible, but Ohio State's just a definitive like runaway train front runner in this tournament. And losing the Indiana game will end up paying off. It'll, you know, springboard us just like the Michigan game did last year. It just didn't happen that way. I don't know what else to say, man. You had an undefeated regular season. A year after a historic level of attrition. Worse things have happened. Bigger tragedies in life. Moving on, more doubters. It's a doubt fest here tonight. Kennedy's checking in from Salt Lake City. Here's what he had to say. Oh, no, not Salt Lake City. Bradley, you can cut all that out. Kennedy's checking in from Lake City, South Carolina. And he said, I know, bold prediction, season is over, but I got a fun one. Kirby Smart never wins another national title. Thoughts? He may not. He may not. Now, I'm gonna have to assume some things here. I'm assuming Kennedy is saying this in a very, very pejorative, negative, gleeful manner because I don't take him to be a Georgia fan. Kirby may not win another national title. I think he's the best head coach in college football right now. So it sounds kind of like an oxymoron. It's not. It's just possible that the best in the game currently. Well, it's possible I'm wrong, that he's the best. But even if I'm right, that he is the best, yeah, it's possible that he won two of them back to back years. And that's it. Dabo did. That's what Dabo Swinney did. He won a couple and then I don't think Dabo will ever win another national title. What does that mean? It means he's one of the best to ever do it and he's a Hall of Famer. That's what it means for Dabo Swinney. Kirby Smart, if he never wins another national title, will be one of the Best to ever do it. And he'll be a Hall of Famer and he will have totally redefined what Georgia football is. That's worst case scenario, I guess. The playoff is a crapshoot. So Georgia made the playoff this year. Total crapshoot. They could have won the thing or they could have been eliminated in their first game, which they were. And neither was like a total shock. Neither would have been a total shock. I don't think that's the skill. The skill is not in winning it. Yes, there is skill in winning a national title, but there's a lot of luck that's going to go into that. The skill as a head coach is in having your program within reaching distance every year. And Kirby Smart has continued to do that. And I think Kirby Smart will continue to do that. And as long as he does that, he's one of the very best that there is doing is extremely hard to beat them. Think about the effort it takes to beat Georgia, how hard it is to cut the head off the snake. You saw Ole Miss do it the other night. How many times have you ever seen a quarterback performance like that? A handful. And so, yeah, it's true that they're struggling to a certain degree at Georgia with the new realities of college football. You can't stack a roster the way you used to. But here's the thing. Once that started happening to Nick Saban, he just retired. His career was done. I mean, it's etched in stone. Greatest of all time. But Saban was also in his early 70s. Kirby's not so he could retire today. For all I know, he's going to retire tomorrow and rides off into the sunset. And he's good. Probably not, though. So, like, that wasn't in the cards for Kirby. Kirby had to deal with the new reality. I'd say they're dealing with it a whole lot better than Dabo is at Clemson. And it sounds like I'm taking shots there. I'm not. I just view two of those careers running kind of sort of parallel a little bit. And one of them still has his program within swinging distance, within reach of the national championship every year, and the other one doesn't. So if he doesn't win another one or if he wins three more, I don't really think that much different about him as a head coach. I will also say about this year's Georgia team, I thought they did another really good job. Left a lot to be desired at the end. I know that. But the offensive line on that team was a wreck at times. This year and yet they still resurrected their ground game. The pass rush emerged. I think that defensive staff did a heck of a job of continuing to just squeeze the sponge and squeeze the sponge. And you thought that you had gotten all the water out of it early in the year. And then they squeezed harder and they got a few more drops out of it. And that pass rush came on late in the year and I didn't know that that was going to be there. And it was there. They actually hit on portal wide receiver to the degree that if they, I mean, if they didn't have branch, what would they have had? Now you may have lacked the downfield consistent threat. I think that's more tied to the quarterback position and what you do and don't have there than it was that you just didn't have any capable receivers. I look, let me tell you this. I know a lot of people around this league. The league expected Georgia to be down this year. Down, historically down by Georgia standards. If you're, if you're picking up what I'm putting down and what they do, they won the SEC again, in my opinion. Georgia has won the SEC in back to back years in what I would consider very off the pace Georgia teams. Now it may be that I haven't properly recalibrated my prism on Georgia and I'm, I'm still thinking about that 20, 21 team. And the reality is no Georgia team is ever going to look like that. I get that. I mean, even using the new landscape and using that as the barometer, I don't think these past two Georgia teams were like remarkably special. And they've won the league back to back years. Now is that an indictment on the sec? Partly, yes, it is. But that's not their fault and ain't George's fault. And so they've still been the best of the league two years in a row. And that surprises me or it doesn't surprise me at all. Just kind of it, it makes me back away from the table when a lot of people are criticizing what Georgia is and isn't right now. I don't know, I mean, I may be too nice to him. As for the teams that are remaining in the playoff, you can go to FanDuel right now and you've got Miami and Ole Miss there, you got Indiana, Oregon there, College football Playoff profit booster there. You'll see it right when you go to the college football tab, you'll see the profit boost. I mean, it's, it's got a nice shiny lightning bolt there. It's really easy to see. So profit boost on all the college football playoff games I have, I went one and one on the prop bets that I liked last week. I loved Oregon over on the rushing yards and that busted. I loved Miami over on the rushing yards and that we killed it on that. So I'm gonna, I'm gonna take a nice healthy look at the prop market later this week. May have some to hand out.
- [83:45]
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- [84:30]
Josh Pate
Let's finish with this question about Lane. I'm not, you know, I'm not going to do it. I was maybe, maybe if you guys stay tuned in once the season ends. It pays to stay tuned in to the show because I tell a lot of stories that I have time to share once the season is over. And this dude texted me something the other day, Lane Kiffin. It made me rethink life. Maybe I was. If we have Lane on the speaker series in the spring, if we go down there, I will reveal the text down there. It's not something you should sit on the edge of your seat for. Like, it's not going to change your life, but it just, it will make you sit back. It made me sit back and question my life. Coming from Lane Kiffin, it made me question my life. Okay, James hit us up from Tupelo, Mississippi. He said, did Lane Kiffin just throw his best chance to ever win a national championship down the drain? James, I will answer the question, but you need to agree to something with me. We have to be adults here. We cannot answer this with a childlike lens on this segment. We have to be adults. Do you agree? Does everyone agree? I'm taking your silence to be a yes. Okay. We've got to separate this into two parts. Part one, there's the decision that Lane Kiffin made to leave Ole Miss and go to lsu. The other part is how he's handled it. I'm going to ask you, for the sake of this question, to completely forget about number two. Just pay attention to the decision he made, because you guys can have a million different thoughts about him and his personality and the way he's handled it and all that. That's. That's a side note. For the next five minutes, I'm only answering this question on the basis of did he throw away his best chance ever to win a national championship? And my answer is, it's impossible to know this. How can anyone know what's coming? How? Look, respectfully, James, maybe you predicted all this to happen. All I know is I got the question from you today or yesterday, whenever you sent it in. Even your question is coming to me after Ole Miss beat Georgia. But see, when Lane left, he had no way of knowing how the Sugar bowl game was going to go. Again, don't pay attention to the way he's handled it. We agreed to that. Just that he left. That's all we're focused on. So, yes, of course, statistically, now his Ole Miss team is in the semifinal, and it's really hard to get this deep in the playoff. So maybe if he was the head coach and they were in the semifinals, maybe this ends up being his best shot at a title. There was no way to know that was going to happen. A competitor would expect it to happen. Yes, I'll grant you all that. I also don't know what he's going to end up doing at lsu. Like, maybe he'll be here four times, maybe he'll be here no times. I don't know. And the third part of that is, how am I supposed to know what the landscape of college football is going to do? It could be that five years down the road, there's no difference in LSU and any of these places. Like, that's the. I will entertain this, James. That's the road. I could see this going down. I am granting before I even utter these sentences that are about to come out of my mouth that it's impossible to know. But if you want me to go glass half empty, or if you want to be. If you want me to go, like, let's go glass 3/4 of the way empty on the Lane Kiffin move, he goes from ole Ms. To LSU. Yes, I will grant you there is a world where the playing field in college football just levels and levels and levels to where a couple more years down the road there's no tangible difference between LSU and Ole Miss. There's really no difference between Indiana and Ohio State. Everything that used to be an edge in college football has been wiped out. Everyone's working with the same resources, everyone's working on the same rev share blueprint. And in the aggregate, all that you have at LSU that you don't have at an Ole Miss, all that you have at Ohio State that you don't have at Indiana is way, way, way higher expectations and way, way more pressure. And in that world, believe it or not, it would be bizarre. You would actually be at an LSU to your detriment relative to being at Ole Miss. It would be more desirable to be at Indiana than Ohio State. It would be more desirable to be at Washington than usc. Because if everything's equal, you want to be at the places where your quality of life's better. If everything's equal, you want to be at the places where they don't have sky high expectations based on a long ago era and a generation and a form of college football that is no more. Because I think one thing we do understand is if we are headed towards a world where the landscape is totally evened out, the expectations are not following suit. Okay? At lsu, they're always going to expect to be better than Ole Miss. Why? Cause they're lsu. At Michigan, they will always expect to be better than Iowa. Why? Because they're Michigan, you know. So, yes, I have to grant in admitting that there's so much unknown about the future of college football, I do have to grant that there's a possibility that we get five years further down the road and people are resisting being a head coach at Georgia or being a head coach at Texas, and they're seeking out being the head coach at Oklahoma State and the head coach at Louisville because everything's equal except the expectations. And we don't want to go where there are bigger expectations. So, yes, there is a possibility that Lane regrets it down the road because he should. He should have stayed at Ole Miss because there was going to be no discernible advantage down the road to being at lsu. Yeah, that could be. There's no way to know. No one knows what the courts are going to do. No one knows what the NCAA can and can't do. No one even knows that they exist anymore. But I can only tell you where I think Lane Kiffin's head is at on this. My answer to the question, before I get too far away from the question, I think he'll have good shots to win national titles at lsu. So I think he'll have at least one chance. I think he'll have at least one team that gives him a better shot to win the national title than he will have had with this year's Ole Miss team. So my answer to the question is no, he didn't just throw his best shot at a national title down the drain. Remember our agreement. That's independent of how you feel he handled the situation. I'm just answering the question. Where I think Lane Kiffin's head is at is he looks at Ole Miss and he looks at himself. And you can agree with this or disagree with this. I'm just giving you my take on it. I think Lane Kiffin looks in the mirror and says, I had way more to do with the success we had here than just Ole Miss had to do with the success. Whether that's right or wrong, I think that's the way his mind works. He's not alone there. I think many, many alpha competitor type head coaches feel that way. All due respect to the tradition and the pageantry and the fan base and whatnot, I'm the straw that stirs the drink here. It's a very arrogant way of thinking. Some guys happen to be right about it, though. Maybe Lane Kiffin's right about that. I can just tell you it's going to be, from an outsider's perspective, very entertaining to watch from the perspective of the players and the coaches that have been caught up in it. It's a joke that this is even a situation. And it's. It's no one person's blame. Like just Howard Jones mode. No one is to blame. Well, many people are to blame. Like. Like I saw someone earlier today. I can't remember who it was. They were asking, hey, why doesn't Greg Sankey step in and make it impossible for Lane to. To give an ultimatum to coaches following him from Ole Miss I. Because they're adults. They're making decisions. Like, I don't. I don't really know that that's where the commissioner of the league would step in. So million issues right now in college football. Yeah. Good show tonight, though. Really good show. Tuesday's show. So we're not doing a show Tuesday, but we may do something on Tuesday. So just follow me on socials at Josh Pate, cfb. I'll let you know what we're doing. And then we're going to be. We're going to be in Arizona on Thursday for the Fiesta Bowl. We'll be in Atlanta Friday for the Peach Bowl. I'll do rapid reactions for each of those games so you won't have to wait until Sunday. But a lot's going on. Lots going on in college football Transfer portal probably changed since I talked about it an hour ago. All right, we got to get home and get some food. For director Bradley producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Take care. Have a great start to your week. Welcome to 2026 and God. BL.
- [93:46]
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- [95:00]
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Josh Pate
No.
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A toaster? No. A hamster and a jetpack. Fun. Let them put golden wings on a dog.
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Josh Pate
Good boy.
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- [96:01]
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