Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: CFP Semifinal Predictions + Portal Chaos & Alabama’s Future
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)

Episode Overview

On this packed episode, Josh Pate dives into the 2026 College Football Playoff semifinals, breaking down Oregon–Indiana and Ole Miss–Miami with granular detail. He analyzes coaching philosophies, statistics, and game dynamics, while engaging with live updates from the ever-chaotic transfer portal. The show also tackles pressing questions about the futures of Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia, as well as the broader tectonic shifts affecting college football in the era of NIL, realignment, and constant coaching turnover.

CFP Semifinal Previews

Oregon vs. Indiana (Peach Bowl)

(02:20–25:43)

• Backstory: Rematch from earlier this season—Indiana upset Oregon in Eugene. This semifinal is set on a neutral field in Atlanta.
• Josh’s Assessment of Indiana:
  • Indiana has become a program that's "kind of like a puzzle that's mostly constructed. It may be all the way put together. There may be no beating Indiana at this point." (07:46)
  • Indiana wins by doing “the easy things to say and hard things to do” and displays elite discipline and sound fundamentals.
  • “If you’re Indiana, you just play your ‘A game’ and you win.” (09:38)
  • Indiana has already proven it can come from behind (e.g., Penn State game) and doesn’t get rattled.
• Oregon’s Challenge:
  • Oregon must execute at an ‘A level’—being merely more talented isn’t enough.
  • First matchup stats: Oregon only 3-of-14 on third down; Indiana’s pressure derailed them.
  • Key inflection point: Oregon’s decision-making and effectiveness on 3rd/4th downs. “One of the tests of that theory is how does Dan Lanning handle fourth down?” (16:18)
  • Coaching staff turnover at Oregon (esp. OC Will Stein leaving for Kentucky) may have affected efficiency.
• Quote – On Indiana’s Consistency:

  “Indiana is, you know, kind of like the constant here. And then teams revolve around them. ... They just do what they do every week and you’ve got a different set of approaches that revolve around them.” (16:59)

• Model/Betting Angle:
  • FanDuel: Indiana –4.5
  • Model: Indiana –3
  • “I think the model is wrong on Indiana… Indiana is an exception to the rule.”
  • PICK: Indiana to win and cover.
• Narrative Stakes:
  • For Oregon coach Dan Lanning, this is the defining win (or loss) for his tenure so far:

    “If Dan Lanning loses this game, no one’s remembering the two playoff wins. ... This is the one he’ll get judged on.” (22:44)

• Memorable Moment:
  • Recalling Pat McAfee and coach Kurt Signetti’s cool interaction pregame:

    “McAfee’s just bowed up at him and Signetti looks over like Hannibal Lecter. Heart rate never above 80, gives him the finger guns and then just goes and disembowels Alabama.” (24:29)

Ole Miss vs. Miami (Fiesta Bowl)

(29:17–41:12)

• The “Can’t” Bowl: Both teams have been dismissed—Ole Miss robbed of expectation after Lane Kiffin’s departure; Miami’s Mario Cristobal doubted since day one.
• Ole Miss X-Factor:
  • Transcendent QB play from Trinidad Chambliss, especially after stunning Georgia.
  • “He is buying time and improvising and making off-platform throws and out-of-structure throws...”
  • Can Ole Miss survive with a limited running game vs. Miami’s elite front?
• Miami’s Edge:
  • No. 5 run defense nationally; shut down OSU and A&M’s run games.
  • “Miami… has been excellent against mobile quarterbacks all year.”
  • Two-way line-of-scrimmage advantage, expected to control tempo if game is “in structure.”
• Potential Traps:
  • Miami could dominate stat sheet but not the scoreboard, allowing Ole Miss’s explosive offense a chance to steal it late.
  • “There is a world where that [Miami’s conservative approach] could even work against Miami.” (36:25)
• Comparable Games:
  • Recalls Miami vs. SMU’s early-season stumble—argues Miami has “woken up” and is peaking now, unlikely to replicate mistakes.
• Model/Betting Angle:
  • Vegas: Miami –3.5
  • Model: Ole Miss –1
  • PICK: Josh contradicts the model and picks Miami to win and cover.
• Quote – On Transcendent QB Performances:

  “You just got beat by a transcendent quarterback performance… If that happens again, Ole Miss will win the game again. There’s really nothing you can do.” (31:55)

Portal Chaos: Major Transfer Trends

(41:12–54:40)

• The transfer portal is “insane” with top talent in motion and heavy real-time updates.
• Notable Players and Moves:
  • Cam Coleman (WR, Auburn) considering A&M and Texas
  • Isaac Brown (RB, Louisville): Texas in mix
  • Josh Hoover (QB, TCU) headed to Indiana
  • Nick Marsh (WR, Michigan State) to Indiana
  • Oklahoma State picks up Caleb Hawkins (RB) and Drew Mestamaker (QB)
  • Several high-profile QBs still uncommitted—D.J. Lagway, Byron Brown, Dylan Raiola, etc.
• Trends & Takeaways:
  • All four CFP semifinal teams are starting transfer quarterbacks.
  • Penn State has effectively imported Iowa State’s core (QB, RB, linemen, receivers), showing the impact of coaching moves.
  • Alabama seeing several departures, including Keon Keely, but may fight to retain key players.
  • Texas Tech aiming for a pivotal QB transfer after learning hard lessons about roster construction.

Team Futures & Big-Picture Storylines

Alabama’s Future Without Saban

(54:40–64:35)

• Mailbag Q: Can Kalen DeBoer bring Alabama "back" to Saban's heights?
  • Josh is candid: “He’s not going to. … I would suggest to you that had Nick Saban stuck around… he wasn’t getting Alabama back to where Nick Saban had it a decade prior.”
  • The sport’s landscape has fundamentally changed (NIL, transfers, parity), making dynastic dominance nearly impossible.
  • What matters: Building a new identity, addressing run-game and toughness issues, and finding true player-leaders.
  • Major lesson from Indiana: Compete to your in-house standard, not off disrespect/doubt narratives.
  • Quote – Cristobal on ‘Bringing the U Back’:

    “‘The U is never gonna be back because they’re asking for something to reemerge that’s impossible to reemerge. … I’m focused on building what the U will be.’” (57:21)

Ohio State: Bubble Burst

(69:57–78:34)

• OSU was overestimated because their weaknesses were never truly exposed until late losses to Indiana and Miami.
• “Football teams are like dams. ... It’s all about who faces enough water pressure from their schedule to expose the cracks.” (71:27)
• Coaching and season still praised as a success after massive attrition, even if immediate expectations shifted.
• The ultimate lesson: Expectations don’t drive performance—only recruiting, development, and execution do.

Georgia/Kirby Smart

(78:34–83:44)

• Mailbag Q: Will Kirby Smart ever win another national title?
  • Maybe not—and that’s no knock:

    “He may not. ... I think he’s the best head coach in college football right now. ... If he never wins another national title, he’ll be one of the best to ever do it and a Hall of Famer.” (80:00)

  • In the expanded playoff landscape, consistent proximity to the title is the skill; titles themselves often require luck.
  • Kirby’s adaptability to modern realities outpaces that of Dabo at Clemson.

The Lane Kiffin Question

(84:29–93:46)

• Did Lane Kiffin throw away his best shot at a national title by leaving Ole Miss for LSU?
  • Impossible to know—the unpredictable landscape may someday erase differences between “power” schools and others.
  • “There is a possibility we get five years further down the road and people are resisting being a head coach at Georgia or Texas, and they’re seeking out being the head coach at Oklahoma State or Louisville because everything’s equal except the expectations.” (91:34)
  • Lane Kiffin likely believes his own coaching was the decisive factor in Ole Miss’s run, regardless of the school.
  • Could be entertaining/chaotic for outsiders, but reflects current flux in college football.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Indiana’s rise:

  “Everything Kurt Signetti has touched has turned to platinum so far this year.” (18:37)

• On Oregon’s Staff Uncertainty:

  “You’ll never convince me that with all the staff churn and turnover happening at Oregon that there wasn’t some residual effect to how much offensive inefficiency there was in that game against Texas Tech.” (17:44)

• On the meaning of expectations:

  “Expectations just don’t matter. ... If your team wins a national title, it’s not because you expected them to. ... It’s because they recruited and developed and executed.” (72:59)

• On the new realities of college football:

  “Everything that used to be an edge in college football has been wiped out. ... All that you have at LSU [now] that you don’t have at Ole Miss is way, way, way higher expectations and way, way more pressure.” (91:04)

• On leadership in football programs:

  “Anyone want to circle to me the alpha leaders on that Alabama team this year, who would that have been? ... In the past, you’d rattle off two or three names. I don’t know that you just rattle off names with this Alabama team.” (62:13)

• Humorous / Personal:
  • Josh’s “escape goat” theory on why his picks have been so maligned:

    “I am just being treated as an escape goat, which is even worse than a normal scapegoat. ... You just swing at it because the only alternative is to swing at the mirror.” (02:20)

  • Story about Pete Nakos getting a Twitter-follower-promised raise:

    “From reporting on kids chasing the bag, Pete Nakos may have secured a bigger bag than any of the kids chasing the bag. And that’s what America is really all about, if you think about it.” (53:32)

Key Timestamps

• 02:20 – Oregon vs. Indiana Preview
• 16:59 – Indiana as “the constant”; other teams revolve around them
• 22:44 – Stakes for Oregon’s Dan Lanning
• 24:29 – Signetti and McAfee pregame moment
• 29:17 – Miami vs. Ole Miss Preview
• 36:25 – Miami’s stat-sheet dominance trap
• 41:12 – Josh disagrees with the “model,” picks Miami
• 41:12 – Portal update and transfer QB rundown
• 54:40 – Alabama’s future under Kalen DeBoer
• 57:21 – Mario Cristobal’s view on “bringing the U back”
• 69:57 – Ohio State season analysis
• 80:00 – On Kirby Smart and championship odds
• 84:29 – Lane Kiffin and the decision to leave Ole Miss

Tone and Style

The tone throughout is insightful and self-aware, often blending serious analysis with self-deprecating humor. Josh Pate’s delivery is energetic, casual, and occasionally sardonic—making use of running analogies (e.g., puzzles, dams, “escape goats”) and never shying from hard truths about the new challenges facing college football’s powerhouses.

Takeaways for Listeners

• Indiana’s breakthrough is for real—their fundamental excellence and staff stability give them the edge in the Peach Bowl.
• Miami’s lines give them the advantage over Ole Miss—unless another magical QB performance disrupts expectations.
• Transfer portal chaos is the new normal; successful programs must master it.
• Anticipation of former powerhouses “returning” is misguided; adaptation is key.
• The next era of college football may eventually flatten the landscape in ways we can hardly imagine—and where you coach (and expectations) could matter more than what your badge says.