← Josh Pate's College Football Show
Josh Pate's College Football Show
ESPN Top 25 Rankings Reaction + Spring Intel & Mike Norvell Truth
01:10:27
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- [00:00]
Jennifer
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times. With the times. You're playing the lute. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?
- [00:28]
Josh Pate
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- [01:11]
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- [02:11]
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- [02:57]
Josh Pate
It's a college football show. That's what it is. That's all it is. That's all it ever will be. It's not a college basketball show. It's never pretended to be. It never will be. But if it were a college basketball show, I would dial up the Sarah McLachlan special of a lifetime for Duke tonight. We just witnessed that in the middle of show prep, right there in front of God and everyone. Jesse, the question has to be asked, how big does a lead need to be for Duke to be safe? A lot of people asking that. Not on this show, but just on the streets. A lot of people are asking. It is Sunday, March 29, the year of our Lord 2020. Jam packed high atop a gorgeous, just picturesque downtown Nashville, Tennessee. And you know what we have, you know what I'm holding in my hand right here? Rankings. Imagine people like us free to discuss those sorts of things and it's not even April yet. Thank you, Bill Conley, and thank you for all your sids getting the rosters in. Finally, I've got that. I've got some decisions that we as a people have to make about how much we trust Big Ten quarterbacks. Monolithic term. Now, I'll discuss that on the show tonight. Of course, it is a show in the spring, so we got a whole lot of intel from spring camps. We've got some scrimmages going on. Nebraska's inexplicably done with spring practice already. And I've got a little chaos scenario and I've got some truth that we have to tell about Mike Norvell. Florida State's Mike Norvell on the program this evening. They're watching us in Norman, Oklahoma, Winchester, Virginia. Spokane, Washington, Lebanon, Tennessee. Thank you so much. Wherever you are, just do us the one added quick minute favor of subscribing to the channel because it is free for you, which is all you should care about. And it helps us out a lot if you care about that sort of thing. In addition with that, we waste no time. This is pressing. Kickoff is like five months away, so we got to get it in right now. I got rankings in my hand. Not from the ap, not even from the JP but from the S and P. Bill Connolly, as you might know him, the numbers man in college football, as far as I'm concerned, should probably just be the face of ESPN.com any given Saturday. A living, breathing angel. And he is delivered to the public, not just us, the S&P plus. The S&P plus. Kind of a loose cousin of the JP poll. No DNA test pending or anything like that, but it kind of tries to do sort of what we do with the JP Poll, which is power rate teams, neutral field favorability. How do they stack up against each other right here today? Yes, in this case, by that I mean March. Bill means March. So yes, this is fluid. Yes, this could change. It's just kind of a predictive look at how things would stack up today. That's all it is. By all means, go crazy in the comment section. This is a life or death situation and I'm going to show you the 1 through 25 there. Now you can go to espn.com right now and you can get all the data on all the numbers, all the explainers. Here's what you need to know. If you've never heard of Bill Connolly before, why? And then the second thing you need to know is very, very reputable, an extremely highly thought of product that everyone else who does a model pretty much bakes into their model. So Bill Connolly knows this stuff, doesn't hate your team, just knows his stuff. Sometimes when you know your stuff, it can be misconstrued as hating a team. So anyway, this is what it looks like and I know a lot of you are driving around right now in St. Louis and you're listening on podcast and you're saying, I don't see anything. I'm not going to read the whole one through 25. Here's what you should know. Ohio State's number one by like three and a half points from the rest of the field. And I'll get to that in a second. But here's the other thing you need to know. It's not going to shock you to learn there's a whole bunch of SEC and Big Ten in this thing. This is not necessarily meant to be what the AP poll is going to look like. This is sort of a neutral field favorability thing. How would his model stack everyone against each other? And here's what you probably remember from last year. The Big Ten finished strong. The Big Ten finished with three of the top four teams in Bill Connolly's S&P. Plus the Big Ten had a team win the national championship. The Big Ten from where I sit, and it looks like from where Bill sits, or at least Bill's model sits is going to enter this season in comparative terms at the top of conferences as number one. But in totality, it's interesting that Bill's model picks up right where it left off last year in another sense, and that is the SEC being the number one overall conference in college football in totality. So it's very interesting because this really tracks with what the perception is. I don't think if you've been watching all of college football, this is going to be shocking to you. Bill's model, the S and P at the end of last year said the Big Ten is better at the top than the sec. However, once you get to the middle tier and then the lower tiers of the SEC in the Big Ten, it's also no contest but on the opposite side of the coin. To give you an idea, SEC finished number one last year despite the Big Ten having three of his top four. And the reason is because seven Big Ten teams finished lower than the lowest SEC team depth SEC top Big Ten it's kind of where a lot of us have stood for the last couple of years. The Big Ten to start this year, as you're seeing right here on your screen, three of the top five teams in the country. SEC just one of the top five teams in the country, but the Big Ten has eight of the top 30, whereas the SEC has 12 of the top 26. Now, I don't know if that's the way it's going to pan out, nor is this meant to predict what things are going to look like in December. This is meant to give you an idea of where things would stand right now, kind of if the season started today. Two teams that are catching my eye. If you're listening on podcast again, I'll kind of go through it here. Texas is at number six and USC is at number 13. Now, as Vern Lundquist used to say, there are few truths in an uncertain world, but here's one of them. Texas is going to be a top five team when they release the AP poll, whenever that's going to be. And so at least at the moment, Texas, a little bit lower in S&P plus than the AP, is going to have them. Make of that what you will. But USC being at number 13 begs this question. How many teams? Just fun exercise here, okay? No one has to bet their life on this stuff in March or ever. How many Big Ten teams do you think will make the playoff this year? If you just had to guess, would you say four? I think most people would say four. All Right. Now that you've gotten that out of the way, guess where USC stacks up in the S and P in terms of Big Ten hierarchy? Numero uno, quattro. Right, Jesse? Yes. So if we're going to use that very, very unscientific mathematical formula, are we not penciling Lincoln Riley into the playoff right here tonight on this show? I'm not, but it looks like Bill is. It certainly looks like that's what he's doing. You can go to espn.com and read more on that. But Texas at 6, USC at 13, and then you start looking outside the SEC in the Big Ten. Thank you for the USC schedule there, Bradley. You start looking outside the SEC in the Big Ten, and the next glaring question I have written on my notes here is, is he right about the Big 12? Is it really going to be another year of Texas Tech and then a pretty big gap and then Brigham Young and then another gap and then everyone else? Because right now, to give you an idea, Texas Tech is seventh, Brigham Young is 18th, and then you got to go to 25th. And there's Utah and there's just a whole bunch of teams. 25th, 29th, 30th, 34th, 36, 38. Notice who's at 38, Jesse. Oklahoma State. Yeah. Yeah. Green arrow pointing north for Oklahoma State. Is that going to be the Big 12? Because I cannot in good conscience continue to call this America's College Football Conference if it's just delivering a knockout there at the top. I say every year. It happened last year, at least at the outset of this season, it looks like that's the way it's going to happen. Mitch, you guys, 40 seconds, Arizona State. Hands up in the control room. We got no answers. Hopefully Kenny Dillingham has a different posture out in Tempe right now. If that's going to be the way it is, I don't want to say it out loud, but I'll whisper it. One bid league. That's responsible thing to say in March. Absolutely. That's what we should be doing with this. Where's the G5 slash G6? Nowhere to be found. Boise is the only team in the top 50. And if we want to get really fine about it, Boise is the only team in the top 58. UNLV next up at 59. We got some structure adjustments that are going on with the playoff this year. So my guess is only one G5 or G6 team is going to make it this year. Looks like the early money would be on Boise there. Bradley, throw me the top 25 up again. What else stands out? If you're watching on YouTube right now, I'll kind of read off the quick top 10. It goes Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, Indiana, Texas, Texas Tech, Miami A and M, lsu. What's missing? Whomst is missing? Which brand has been a mainstay in this and pretty much every poll known to mankind out there for the past better part of two decades. Now it's that team at number 11. Conley had the audacity to put Alabama at number 11, and it's due to a couple of things. The computer assuming very poor special teams ratings coming into the year. But even if you keep the special teams rating because that's that fluctuates wildly every year, he projects Alabama having the number 32 offense in the country to start the year at least, and that is 1000% within their control. So I don't want to quantify the statement I'm about to make, but when it comes to Alabama in their preseason rating, I would like to ask this can they guarantee me a competent ground game there if you just did that and you changed nothing else and kept everything else a mystery? Alabama's like a number seven, number six knocking on the door of top five because elsewhere they'll be fine if they get good quarterback play, and I'm pretty confident they'll be okay in that department if they've got a good notice. I didn't say great. I didn't say elite good. Like top 50 ground game, which is asking a ton, believe it or not. Welcome to Alabama football circa 2026. I'm asking a ton for him to have a top 50 ground game, but Georgia did this last year. Georgia vaulted themselves back up well inside the top 50 after being outside the top 100 in some major rushing statistics. If they do that, Bama's not outside the top 10, but that's a great big if. And who are we to assume? Because you know what, as much as you may be a Bama fan and you may be saying it's okay we got a new offensive line coach and even though we're replacing a lot of production on the offensive line, that production was terrible. So it'll be. It'll be an increase in productivity by default. You're a human with emotions and a heart and a soul and feelings, and a computer has none of that. And so that computer is just looking and saying, well, historically, what happens when you basically start from scratch at a position as important as offensive line? Wildly inconsistent, very volatile. So we'll see how that turns out. And I also. One more time, Bradley, just for old times sake. Top 25 again. I want you to think about teams outside the top 20. It cuts off with Brigham Young, Florida and Missouri. That's 18, 19, 20. Is there anyone? You can get the full list if you go to espn.com if, if I were to tell you I've seen the future, there is a team that is outside the top 20 here that is going to just play for the national title. All right, let's loosen the criteria a little bit. They don't even have to win it. They're just playing for the national championship. I'm telling you, we took like what, Jesse, five or ten minutes and we searched far and wide. Actually, we didn't search wide, but we looked with a magnifying glass. Who would it be? Would it be Louisville? That was my best guess. Louisville's number 27, I believe there is a world. It may be distant, it may be out there beyond all, you know, where Pluto hangs out, out where the former planets are. But there is a world where Jeff Braum gets Kine Holtz in there. And it really is true that he was battling for the Ohio State starting quarterback job a year ago from this time. And he just does what quarterbacks do under Jeff Braum. And they got a whole new wave of portal guys in there. And it just boom, it just clicks. And Louisville ends up being the surprise team in the acc, which is a very. It's not a winnable conference because Miami's there. It's very easy to shoot yourself up to number two, maybe in the acc. And so maybe they find their way into the playoff and go on a run. Maybe it's Louisville outside of that, Washington's 21. Just Damond Williams season like he, he ran face first into the exit door. It was locked. So he turns back around, he's just angry. And he takes it out on, well, the entirety of Washington schedule this year. Auburn's 26 again. Remember, we have. We have a prophecy delivered to us. Someone outside the top 20 is going to the national title game. And I got to figure out if that ever happens, who it is. Louisville, Washington, Auburn. That's the only one I could land at number 26. Alex Golis just completely turns the SEC inside out this year. But Ohio State's number one, okay, that's where we are right now. And with a gap that big, with a 3.5-point gap between them and Oregon at number two, understanding how SP works or S&P works, I would guess Ohio State's about to start the year number one in S&P plus. Does that seem a little high to you? By high, I mean they could be number two. And this would qualify as being overrated. It's easy to be overrated when you're number one. If Ohio State is to navigate this thing this year, like, if you're an Ohio State fan, you hope this is right. You hope Bill Connolly is right. You hope you are the number one team in the country. But if Bill Connolly is right, here's the catch 22. Yeah, you're number one. You play number two, number five, number six, number 13, and number 14 in the country this year. So y' all may hate on Notre Dame schedule this year. You may hate on any of a number of schedules. Ohio State has got to run it. They got to run the gauntlet this year. And that's not even counting the fact that Nebraska, according to some, could be as good as 11 and 1 this year. I don't know if y' all saw that yesterday. Could be as good as 11 and 1 this year. They got to go to Iowa. I'm not even including that. Brett Bielema's on this schedule. Jess Kent State. We bet every game last year, sometimes four, sometimes against. So Ohio State has got it to do. I hope they are the number one team because you could be the best team in the country and go 9 and 3, 10 and 2 against the schedule and still be the best team in the country. Ranking season is a is a good thing. It may be the best of things. I'll tell you what else is great. Before I get to some wild and sometimes baseless speculation on some of these quarterbacks. The speaker series is hot right now. That thing's doing better viewership than it's ever done, and it always does. Good viewership. We were at Florida last week. We were at Miami last week. Both of those episodes are available on the YouTube channel in the podcast feed right now. We will be right back out on the road tomorrow morning. We're leaving at 6:30. Is the sun even up here this time of year? I don't think so. I can't tell you where we're going yet. I could. I won't. And we're going to do two of them. Two big ones, two big stops, two of our biggest viewer bases this week, and then we'll break for Easter, and then we'll be back at it again. So be on the lookout for that. Last week. Well, when was it, Jesse? Thursday, I guess. We did something on the show where I kind of, I didn't want to do quarterback ratings yet because we all know the pot of hot water that got me in last year. But it's going to happen eventually, but it's not happening yet. But I did want to at least tee up quarterback situations and how I feel about him. Bradley, here's a good end point for you. I want to look around the Big Ten. I want to look at several of these quarterback situations. Right now there are not as many quarterback battles in the Big Ten as there normally would be. So we know a lot of these starters unless injury or something like that were to happen. I'm just going to state my confidence level that these guys can deliver at an equal to or higher level, maybe even than is expected. So go with Oregon. First, Dante Moore. My confidence level here, I want to be high. I want to be just sky high on Dante Moore. I would go medium to high. The thing that holds me back relatively speaking is he was not great in their bigger games last year. Now that's not the first time, nor will it be the last time we say that about a guy who is then coming back and then becomes good to great in those big games. So what we're asking for is natural progression from Dante Moore. But there's also a lot of offensive line churn in front of him. Now I'm on record as saying I'm pretty sure Oregon has a good handle on the offensive line situation up there or else they would have panicked and gone full portal overhaul. But they didn't. So I feel that they feel they're okay there. Therefore I think Dante Moore will be okay and not running for his life. And if he's not, they have got a plethora and you know how rarely I use that word of skill on the outside. It's Oregon, okay? So they'll be loaded everywhere. The big game moments. That's what I need to see. Man, if he's clicking there, then there is no medium here. It's just high confidence. I'd say the same thing about Julian Sain at Ohio State. Julian Sain at Ohio State should make a leap this year. Stands to reason he was a first time starter, first year starter last year. So again the natural progression, the natural scaling up mentally, just the psychological edge that you want your quarterback playing with. I'm not talking about at press conferences, I'm not talking about in stretch and stride, the periods they're letting the media in there. I'm talking about against Indiana, I'm talking about on the Road against Texas this upcoming year they're going to be in several big games. And I remember last year, the Miami game, the last game they played last year. You're watching it and he's getting hit and look, it's tough to respond well to that. 99% of humans don't respond well to that. You got to be a 1 percenter by default to be the starting quarterback for Ohio State. I don't know that about him yet. I don't doubt the physical tools. I don't doubt any of that. He wouldn't be there if he didn't have that. So it's not a knock on him. It's just the standard you have to meet when you're the quarterback at Ohio State. That's all that is. I would say my confidence level on him is medium to high. And the only reason it wouldn't be high is because like Dante Moore, I want to see him in those big games. I want to see if he has the ability to take over a game. Now the follow up is he may not need to because he's going to have an excellent ground game. Probably got the best supporting cast out of any of these guys that we're going to talk about. Surroundings and system are big pluses for him. But ultimately, even at Ohio State, even with the supporting cast, you will go as far as quarterback allows you to go. Indiana. Fernando Mendoza is off to the NFL. Josh Hoover steps in at Indiana. For those of you who don't pay much attention to the portal, that's okay. That was TCU's quarterback last year at his best. He is a very high level player. Just need to see it more consistently. I would say my confidence level on him is medium to high. It would be medium if I didn't know he was going to play. For Kurt Signetti in Indiana, it's medium to high because I cannot see Indiana and the way that place operates being plagued by turnovers. Josh Hoover has been. He had five games with two plus turnovers last year. Just interceptions. Right. Jesse weren't even fumbles. Yeah. So look, it could happen. I mean if that happens, Indiana would just come crashing back to earth. I guess by that that means like nine and three for them. I don't think they're going to allow that to happen. And so it would surprise me if turnovers were like an issue that plagued, plagued them all year. His best is really good. Like I said, I trust the overall environment to get the best out of him. I'd go medium to high on Hoover. Can I Do that with Bryce Underwood. Bryce Underwood at Michigan, I'd put the confidence level at medium. And I'm baking in the idea of first year starter to second year starter growth, baking all that in. I also got a bacon. Of course, it was a lot of up and down last year. More down than up. I've also got a bacon. It's a new offensive system, it's a new staff, it's a new a lot, not everything, but it's a new a lot of things. And unlike some of these other places, I don't know what the supporting cast is there. I'm going to tell you, they're not chock full of future first rounders at receiver. That's not. That's not what there are. Well, that's not what the roster is right now. It may be one day. That's not what it is right now. But in terms of the pure physical package, that's as good as it gets in the Big Ten. So now does it manifest itself into an elite quarterback? That's what we're waiting on. Michigan's over under win total for those interested. Eight and a half right now. He's a large part of that out in Los Angeles, which is Big Ten country, as we know. Jaden Maiva is entering his third year as a starter. Third year under Lincoln Riley as a starter. This is a formula that we have been taught to believe in in the college football circles, I'd say medium to high is my confidence level there. I trust Lincoln Riley, especially at this position. I trust the development to continue. But that's kind of my question. Does he elevate his game or does it plateau? Is it just kind of more of the same because he had trouble scaling consistency against the best teams he's played? There have been some turnover issues here too, specifically in the big games. And what I don't want to see in a year where usc, I fully expect to contend for a playoff spot. I don't want to see him just ripping Fresno State and going ripping Maryland. But when I look at the Ohio State game, the Indiana game, we got like a combined five picks. That's not what I'm interested in. Not in your third year as a starter. I'd say medium to high only because I don't know that I can count on that yet. Penn State middle of spring ball right now. Rocco beck's up there, 9th year, 10th year as a starter at college, somewhere around there. He is a very, very experienced player. Obviously came over to State College with Matt Campbell when he took the job, I'd go medium here. I go medium because I don't want to fall into the trap that a lot of people fall into. They kind of did it with Drew Aller last year, ironically enough, where you just assume because a guy's coming back again for another year he just gets like 15% better. Maybe he will or maybe we've seen his best and his best is not bad but. But his best against the Big 12 was good enough to be in the mix every year. If I take that caliber of play and I'm now putting him up against Big Ten defenses, albeit not most of the good ones in the regular season, but against Big Ten defenses, how do I expect that to play out? His numbers regressed last year a little bit. He is injured right now, so he's recovering from injury now. He's not having to learn a new system and that's good, but he's having to learn new surroundings and even as a borderline 35, 36 year old man, that's going to be tough for him. It is. So I'd say medium confidence there. I'd say medium for Damond Williams at Washington. I don't know how to quantify or how to interpret the whole trying to leave and then not able to leave and so, oh, never mind husky for life sort of thing. So I'm just going to say it and then I'm going to move on. But protects the ball, he's a good athlete. I wonder if the cast is there and I have trouble shaking out of my mind the image of them struggling mightily against Ohio State last year. Remember we took Jesse three or four months last year. We were breaking down schedules and we kept on looking at Ohio State schedule. If there was a trap game is that game in Seattle. We kept on circling it, so did Ohio State and it was not much of a game as I recall. And Damond Williams would just as soon forget that one. There could be a year two production jump here. I'd go medium on him. And our low to high special is Anthony Calandria at Nebraska. This is one of the bigger wild card quarterback situations in all of college football. Remember Dylan Raiola was the new face of the program. He was the hope that we were placing our hearts in the hands of and then he's gone and not just bailing on you like no one really shed much of a tear upon him leaving. It just didn't work. Kenny Menchie's going to work though. And Kenny Menchee came to Lincoln. Was he ever physically in town Jesse, we don't know. We don't know. But he said bye. And so after, oh, 48, 72 hours, something like that, the Kenny Minchi era came to an end. And then they have to, quote, unquote, settle and they have to go to UNLV and they have to get Anthony Calandria. I've just been around college football too long to be shocked if when this works out better than either of those two would have, it really feels like he's a better overall fit in this system. Now there were some ups and downs in spring ball. That's fine. That's fine. They shouldn't be great right now. This thing, if it rounds into form, it'll probably be hideous against Ohio in week one, Bowling Green in week two still be a little eh. But there'll be some signs North Dakota comes in there. Week three, it'll still be vanilla, but that's okay because the message boards will say we held some stuff back. And then they go to Michigan State and they got Maryland. Week four, week five, that's when conference play opens up. He could be 10 of 30 with three interceptions. He could be 21 of 24, lighting the world on fire. And he's Big Ten player of the year bound in October. Any of these things can happen. So my confidence is somewhere between low and high on Anthony Calandria. My 111 potential prediction for Nebraska is heavily depends on high confidence. But it's March, so I don't have to nail that down right now. Okay? That's what God created every month between March and September for. And that, my friends, is a look at the Big Ten quarterback situation. And if you'll just show this monitor right. Boom. That's a look@paid statematerial.com that's not exactly what the front page of the website looks like. This is just something Bradley threw together. But new items out. Now I've got it on good authority cold weather is mostly gone. Talked to a lot of sources on that earlier today. Cold weather is mostly gone. Now if you want to go buy long sleeve gear from pacestatematerial.com that's your constitutional right. I am not going to stand in your way. But I would just say specifically this time of year, the Pate State strength and conditioning tees fly off the shelves. I have worn one myself within the past 48 hours and you guys know how rarely I change clothes. So if it's good enough for me, I promise it's more than good enough. Well, actually the opposite should be true. But you ought to Go buy one. That's what you ought to do. We're trying to make Alex happy, okay? When we get happy texts from her, Alex runs the store for us. Then it's a happy day for us.
- [31:24]
Jennifer
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right? And the best part? They accept. Discover. Accept Discovery in a little place like this? I don't think so, Jennifer. Oh, yeah? Huh. Discovers accepted where I like to shop. Come on, baby. Get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback, I think.
- [31:47]
Josh Pate
Discover is accepted at 99 of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [31:54]
Julian Edelman
This is Julian Edelman from Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and Jewels. All right, real quick, take a look at yourself right now.
- [32:00]
Josh Pate
Why?
- [32:01]
FanDuel Sponsor
What's wrong?
- [32:01]
Julian Edelman
Nothing's wrong. You look like a guy running on three hours of sleep and vibes.
- [32:06]
Josh Pate
Okay, yeah, I'm tired, kind of cranky and very thirsty.
- [32:10]
Julian Edelman
Congrats. Those are some of the potential signs of mild dehydration. And I bet your last bathroom break showed you another sign your body might be throwing you a penalty flag.
- [32:23]
Josh Pate
So what's the play?
- [32:23]
Julian Edelman
Call Liquid IV Hydration Multiplier. One stick in water helps hydrate faster than water alone. Okay, but where's the proof? Liquid IV's clinical studies. Not just a guy I know. Real science. Results you can trust.
- [32:42]
Josh Pate
Well, take a look at me now. Liquid IV is officially part of my daily hydration routine. Pass the firecracker Popsicle flavor.
- [32:49]
Julian Edelman
Stay hydrated like a pro, not like Jack before this. Stock up on Liquid IV hydration multiplier@liquid-iv.com and use the promo code nuthouse for 20% off your first purchase.
- [33:06]
Public Investing Sponsor
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this
- [34:07]
Jacob Goldstein
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting. All linked and talking to each other. Check out odoo@O-O-O.com that's O-O-O.com
- [34:53]
Josh Pate
let's move along. Spring ball Spring practices continue. Some teams have already had their spring game. Tennessee just wrapped up a scrimmage, so we put our ear to the ground, which just means we checked out what Brent Hubs had to say over on VaulQuest and maybe a whisper or two elsewhere. Jim Knowles is the defensive coordinator there. All right, so in case you missed it, when Penn State got busted up and everyone went their separate way, Jim Knowles, the defensive coordinator who two years ago was winning a national title at Ohio State. He is now in Knoxville, Tennessee. Now, if you're a sicko like you've known this for a long time, but you got to keep in mind there are some people. In fact, there are a lot of people. Any given show is the first show they've listened to in a while because they've kind of been checked out on college football. They may not know Jim Knowles took the job in Knoxville, but yes, Jim Knowles resides in the same state that Jesse and I do right now. Wow. Wow. And he didn't come alone. He brought some transfers with him. He brought some support staffers with him, but more importantly, he brought players, some Penn State infusion on defense at every level, all three levels there. And what that's done for what is normally a very, very complex system that takes a while to learn, is it sort of expedited things? And the thing you keep hearing out of Knoxville is, you know, we're a little bit ahead of where we thought we would Be defensively. And this isn't one of those things where the offense just sucks more on that in a second. No, I really think that because he didn't come alone, but he brought some folks with him. I think it's a big deal. Duan Lane, for instance, is kind of a leader in that secondary right now. Well, he wasn't there. He wasn't at Tennessee last year. He came via the portal with Jim Knowles. What about quarterback? Meant to mention this the other day and I didn't. Cause unlike the situation at Bama. Yeah. This one is still up in the air. So in a way it does have that in common with Alabama. The Alabama quarterback battle, I kind of feel like either one can win. I'm trying to figure out if Tennessee has that. Josh Hyple normally finds this guy. So we don't have to play a game this week, fortunately. But Faison, BRANDON and George McIntyre, you, any given day hear different things about different guys. Like you can find a lot of people inside that program who would tell you, well, I mean George looked better today. I don't know, man. Faison, he gives us the long term upside. If it's close, we might as well start him. Just still trying to figure that out. And I don't really care right now because they're not even done with spring ball yet. But that defensive note from Brent Hubs and several other people around there, that's encouraging because remember they fell off a cliff last year. They were sixth in the country defensively two years ago and they dropped to 92nd last year. Nebraska's done not as a program, Nebraska's just done with their spring game already. If there's someone who's done with their spring game, I think it's going to be like Arizona. I think it's somebody who just wanted to get outside because it was warm. They Matt Rule essentially hooked up the equipment to dog sleds and mushed his way out on the practice field as quickly as he could. Spring game was yesterday and I did a thing that is a very, very dangerous thing to do in college football. I turned the Nebraska spring game on at all the right moments and I saw some things frankly I shouldn't see. Fresh off the heels of a 10 win prediction from last year that didn't quite come true. I saw some throws made into some tight windows. I saw Jamal Rule, true freshman running back, run for 120 and I saw those things and I said 11 and one. I could see it 11 and one. Anthony Calandria, very mixed bag. As I was just talking about a little while ago at quarterback, but things feel more fluid. They feel like they're moving faster. Here's what it feels like to me. It's a situation where they're trying to just get everything in order. You know, they're shaking the game and all the pieces have yet to fall into their proper places, but they will. That's what I feel about Nebraska's offense. Whereas last year it kind of didn't feel that way. I hoped it, but I never felt it. I feel. I feel Dana Holgerson this year. I don't just know of him. I feel Dana Holgerson this year. Compton has not paid me to say any of this, and I was looking at some of their wide receiver production. Last year. They lose number one, number three and number four in pass catchers. Was it five? Two. Jesse, did we ever figure so just. Just one, three and four. Jacore Barney, you feeling him because he was wide receiver two last year. I'm not asking is he going to be Nebraska's wide receiver? 1. I'm asking when I look across the landscape of the Big Ten this year, will he stack up? I'm not saying we have Jeremiah Smith 2.0 in Lincoln. I don't misconstrue. That's not what I'm saying. Just right behind Jeremiah Smith. That's all I'm trying to ask. I'm cooking up a prediction on Nebraska. I've still got several months to back off of it, but I am. I'm writing it down right now. I just wrote it. Now, I'm not gonna say it out loud, but I wrote it down. Miami, we were just down there last week, watched them practice a little bit. 95% of what I witnessed I cannot report to you because that is the NDA that I signed in my own blood in Mario's office before we watched practice. However, I'm not the only one that's talked about Miami, so I'm absolutely happy to deliver information secondhand. Truthfully, I saw a lot of this, too. Jackson Cantwell, number one overall player in the country, courtesy of Rivals this past recruiting cycle. I stood next to Jackson Cantwell in the hallway the other day, briefly spoke to him. When Bradley puts six, seven and a half, 325 on the graphic, it's probably a little low. I would venture to guess he may be a little bigger than that. And he's not even the biggest dude on that offensive line. So I know size is not everything. I watched Alabama just like you guys did last Year size is not everything on the offensive line, but this is a place where they have earned benefit of the doubt that they're going to put a really good product on the field. And I think they'll do that again this year. But at the wide receiver position, okay, when I went down there and when I'm reading practice reports and when I'm talking to anyone around Miami or at Miami, the wide receiver position is what I have been focused on. Because Malachi, Tony is a known commodity, okay? Cooper Barkate, we've talked about him a lot on the show. They brought him in from Duke, so they brought Darian Mensah, he's going to start form at quarterback. But they also brought Duke's number one receiver in there. And I've seen more than a couple of times people sort of list those two. Malachi Toney, Cooper Barkay, and then it's kind of like. And friends, I don't want to put a lot of unjust pressure on that place. Miami has the physical ability to be one of the top receiver rooms in the country. Like Josh Moore. Josh Moore, I could take and put on a lot of teams and he'd be the best receiver on those teams this year. And I'm talking about teams that aren't en route to going 4 and 8. I'm talking about teams that could contend. So Miami's got some really good players that you don't know the names of yet. Some of them from the Portal, some of them are just true freshmen that they really feel like they hit on. I feel really good about that receiver room. And then the other thing that I've talked a lot about and I had my eye on when I went down there last week, Damon Wilson, pass rush specialist thus far in his career, transfers in from Missouri. And I'm looking at it and I'm saying, man, with Bane and Mazador out the door, they're losing a lot in pass rush, but they're losing a lot in run stopping ability too. I wonder if Damon Wilson can do that. Is he really a true three down guy? Can they depend on him now? Look, he's got to prove that. I got the sense they feel okay about that. I think they feel like he's got it in him. But also I feel like they believe that their culture just pulls that out of you or else you won't be on the field. Because this is not an operation that is dependent on one player. Like you got Moton and Scott still there at defensive tackle. You got Blunt, you got Lightfoot, they're still loaded in their defensive front, so I think Damon Wilson will work out at the very least as a pass rusher, but he may not be half bad against the run either. What about Ole Miss? Since you and I last spoke Thursday, Trinidad Chambliss has been ruled eligible by the ncaa. No, no, no, they didn't rule him eligible. The Mississippi Supreme Court just told the NCAA they don't matter. What a streak. What score court versus ncaa. So Trinidad Shamble is good to go. And you know what that means. It means Ole Miss win total is low. It's still seven and a half is juice to the over now, but seven and a half is too low. Trinidad Chambliss is the quarterback for this team this year because they have overhauled that secondary. They portaled a whole new one in and it wasn't terrible. Last year wasn't great, it wasn't terrible, but they've portaled a whole new one in and Kewan Lacey is still on this team and they could be excellent at receiver. They are top 30 as it is in returning production. There's a fire lit under that entire program because of what Lane Kiffin did. Some say he elevated professionally, some have just renamed him Judas on his Wikipedia page. So wherever you stand on that, those people and that organization is very motivated to prove the world wrong this upcoming year. And I'm telling you, seven and a half is too low. And Jesse, that's coming from someone. This has been well documented in the replies that hates Old Miss. Of course, if there's one thing I spent my childhood doing growing up in Harris County, Georgia, it was holding a grudge against Ole Miss football. Everybody from West Central Georgia is just born with like rebel hatred in their blood. Just Ole Miss football. Ugh. I still don't know where it came from. The search continues as to where that lie, that myth came from. We had a question that I gave way more thought to than I should, and it came from Mike in McAllen, Texas. And he said, if you could place Pate State's campi which shouldn't be a plural form because it's just one campus. But if you could place Pate State's campus anywhere in the usa, where would you place it? Some of you may think, I'm going to go Atlanta. Some of you are thinking Houston, Birmingham. Some of you are thinking you just look at a TV ratings report and you just place Pate State right there in the heart of the hottest college football epicenter in America. I'm going to New York City. All due Respect to Syracuse, New York's football team. They're not moving the needle like we need them to right now, nor have they ever, at least in the color television era. And Rutgers. No, you know, when I'm not going to do it. But you guys know what the deal is. Okay, so New York City has what, like 8 or 9 million people there? And here's the way that I look at the citizens of New York City. Not the way that. Not the way Meemaw did growing up. Okay? I look at the citizens in New York City when we go up there and we walk the streets. I look at potential college football fans that just haven't been shown the way yet. In fact, that's how I look at every American citizen. You got two kinds of people in this country. You got college football fans, and then you got people who just haven't been shown the way properly yet. That's it. There are no other kinds of people in this country. There's literally two kinds. And that goes for New York City as well. And so if no one else is going to claim that territory, like Lincoln Riley is trying as hard as he can to do it out in Los Angeles, and now Bob Chesney's taking the job across town. So someone's trying in la. No one's trying in New York. I think we need to try in New York. And so I've looked at a few facilities, possibilities. It's going to cost us a little bit. Okay. I don't know that I can get a full 100 yard indoor. I don't know that we can pull that off. We probably have to build up instead of out. But the bottom line is I am putting the campus right there in New York City. I'm not even going to specify a borough. Like the Red Hook section of Brooklyn. I don't want lower Manhattan, Jesse. I don't want to be anywhere near that. Okay? I don't want anyone in a suit within five blocks of our campus. No, I want to be where Taz is from. I want to be from, like, Brooklyn. That's where I want to go. They're watching us in West Palm Beach, Florida. Bowling Green, Kentucky. Grand Rapids, Michigan. Thank you guys so much. You want chaos? Hey, Savannah State is in here tonight. Like, is she in there still? Could you ask her why she's texting me? That's not the chaos scenario. This, in my hand, is the chaos scenario. We've been doing one of these per show. Because really what you want to do in March and April is you want to Throw as much against the wall as possible and hope that in December something stuck. And so tonight, I want to go down the road of potential chaos in the Big Ten. I'm all for glowing positive hypotheticals this time of year. Some say it's what I'm known for. I don't even fight the allegation. I'm a positive person. I'm sorry. I'm not sorry. And so if everyone wants to assume that Julian Saan is going to be a Heisman finalist this year and Ohio State's going to seamlessly reload defensively, and if everyone wants to assume that Dan Lanning found all the answers on that offensive line and Oregon is going to go further than they have at any point in any postseason in years past, if anyone wants to assume that Kirt Signitti and Indiana are just going to run it back, I got no problem with that. Personally, I'm happy to traffic in that with you. I'm more comfortable doing that. What I'm saying is this particular portion of the shows in the spring, it's not called a Kumbaya scenario. It's called a chaos scenario. And what we're trying to figure out is, is there something that's plausible? Is there something, you know, you walk the beach with the metal detector. If I'm just scanning the Big Ten with that thing, is it blipping somewhere? And here's the chaos scenario. The top of the Big Ten is just not what we think it is. Let's say that plays out. So humor me for a second. How would this look? It's happened in the SEC the last few years. So what if the roles are reversed and it happens in the Big Ten this year? No one's got to fall off a cliff. But let's just say Ohio State doesn't see quarterback play elevate like we would hope. And let's say after two straight years of really, really high level attrition, that defense does come back to earth. And let's say that schedule does bite Ohio State this year. All right, bookmark that. And then at the same time that's happening, let's say we're wrong about Oregon's offensive line. Let's say they do have an issue there. Oh, by the way, with any of these teams, injury could just crop up and be a big time issue this year or any year. Let's say with Oregon, let's say Dante Moore is. Is no better in the high leverage moments than he was last year. And then I want you to bookmark that. And then I want you to look at Indiana. Let's say the turnover issue continues to plague Josh Hoover. Let's say instead of being airtight in terms of execution and dominating on special teams and forcing turnovers, let's say Indiana's, you know, just even. Or maybe gasp, even slightly below even, maybe minus two or three turnovers this year. Maybe this portal class isn't just the magical cure all lever that we think it may be that we assume it is. If that happens to those three teams, well, then the top of the Big Ten is in play. But I'm thinking about the national title because right now I just named three of the top five teams in the College Football Playoff odds. So if that's the case, those three are unlikely to win the national title. Of course, my mind immediately goes to boom Notre Dame or boom Texas, maybe Miami, Georgia, whoever. But I also think about the Big Ten picture because here's the other thing that could happen now. Those three teams could be down and no one takes advantage of it. Or those three teams could be down and Bryce Underwood goes off and Michigan's your Big Ten champ or something that would be, I'm not going to say out of left field, but even more have to see it to believe it for most of America. Would that be Lincoln Riley's shot? Lincoln Riley's got the quarterback situation the way he wants it. They just landed a number one recruiting class. The early word out of spring ball out there has been a lot of those freshmen are ready to contribute. They feel like their overall roster is a top 10 roster. In fact, they're even more aggressive than that about it internally. And if Ohio State and Oregon and Indiana are down a little bit and that coincides with USC peaking at the right time, maybe, just maybe, we're hearing a different kind of fight song in Indianapolis in early December. And need I remind you, the bakery that spat out this cookie dough soft schedule that Penn State's gonna play, maybe Matt Campbell pulls it off in year one. Hey, it doesn't really matter if those teams are down when you don't play any of them to begin with. Like, who cares if they're down or not, but especially if they are down. Matt Campbell, Year one garbage out of conference schedule. Not much in the way of a conference schedule. And then if he gets to Indianapolis and you got a really wobbly Ohio State or a wobbly Indiana or Oregon, or maybe none of them are there and it's Penn State USC or Penn State Michigan for the conference title. And by that time, if Penn State's there. It means they were pretty good at least. And then the other question I would have is if Ohio State and Indiana and Oregon are down, why did it happen? There are only one or two ways that happened. Well, three ways. The first one's injury. We can't predict that, so we dismiss that. Number two, it could be self contained. It could just be they didn't get the job done, they didn't develop the way they needed to, they dropped the ball. I'm not going to say complacency, but stuff that you control, you didn't handle your business. That could happen. Or it could be that a whole bunch of the Big Ten, Tier 2 or Tier 3 jumped up. Nebraska, Iowa, Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin. Like those sorts of teams are just flat out better by a few points per team than we expected them to be. Big Ten could be a bloodbath this year. Jesse. Or it could be the same old same old. We'll see. But same old same old wouldn't be chaotic.
- [54:16]
Jennifer
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right? And the best part? They accept Discover. Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so. Jennifer oh yeah, huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop. Come on baby, get with the time. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback, I think.
- [54:39]
Josh Pate
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [54:46]
Public Investing Sponsor
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this
- [55:47]
Jacob Goldstein
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com there's
- [56:20]
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- [56:54]
Josh Pate
So I've been monitoring the headlines and it turns out Lane Kiffin did take the LSU job. We had a question from Georgie just up the road in Elizabethtown, Kentucky. He said, did you see that clip of Kiffin saying we should be patient with him at lsu? To me, you can ask for patience or you can ask for $13 million a year, but you don't get both at a place like lsu. Meemaw told us all the time, casual people sometimes say dumb things. They do. Dumb people rarely say smart things though. What I think we have here is Georgie is a smart person who has said a very casual thing. Before I even go into this, I want you to hear what Lane Kiffin had to say. This was after a spring practice the other day. They're still in the middle of it down in Baton Rouge. Spring practice one of year one for Lane Kiffin. He stepped to the podium and had
- [57:55]
Lane Kiffin
this to say, things don't happen overnight. You know, it takes a lot of work to get a program up to an elite performing program level. And so we're making some first steps, but there's a ton of work to do. And like I said before, we've assembled a good roster, you know, but at the same time too, you know, there's a ton of work that goes into that to get program back up to where everybody around here wants it to be. And the reason that we came here, you know, it was seven and six last season. So within that comes change. Within that comes a lot of work because that's a long jump to go to the level that I came here to get at and all the people around the program want to be at, so.
- [58:46]
Josh Pate
Look, I hate to derail everyone's narrative out there. Lane Kiffin's right. Bradley, do me a favor. Throw the question back up again. I want to make sure I read it properly. Georgie said, did you see Kiffin complaining? Be patient with him, okay? We just watched the clip. All right, so this part, Georgie said here, he said to me, you can ask for patience or you can ask for $13 million a year. You don't get both at a place like lsu. This is the great conundrum in the modern age of college football. The conundrum being people thinking that if you just pay someone way more money than you used to pay, you get to circumvent all the usual processes that it takes to build a winner. Some of the dumbest logic or lack thereof that exists in sports. College football just happens to be the one I love. Look, I know it's not what a lot of you want to hear. Lane Kiffin's right. Lane Kiffin would be right if I were paying him $13 billion a year. A massive salary is not some mechanism. That's a magic bypass for what it takes to win. It takes what it takes to win. You pay me$13.13 million. 13 billion. It's not this magic leverage where when you pull it up, we don't have to worry about what we'd have to worry about if we were only paying him half of what we're paying him. And by the way, Lane Kiffin didn't pay himself $13 million. You did. You could pay him whatever you want to pay him. I get how the market works. I get how Jimmy Sexton works. But the bottom line is you chose to do that. It takes what it takes to win, no matter what you're paying him. And then they go and they spend $40 million on the roster, whatever the official number is. They've spent a ton of money on this roster because they want to flip it fast and they want to win really quickly. That's great. That's great. Savannah State could go to Whole Foods and clean that whole place out. She could leave with 10 carts. She could need an 18 wheeler to get all the stuff home. It's not doing anything if it's just sitting on the counter. Nor are football players as individuals until they become a team. Well, Josh, that means he's just got to make them a team. Or to use the grocery metaphor, that means once the groceries are brought home, you gotta cook with them. I know. So that circles back to the question I have for Georgie there or for any LSU fan watching. You want him to use the microwave or the stove? Both can produce a meal. The one you're looking for, I don't think comes from the microwave. And I know it's done no one any favor that Kurt Signetti just did what he did at Indiana. If you are of the mentality that what Signetti did is the new rule instead of the exception, you're setting yourself up for supreme disappointment. I'm just flat out telling you I know it happened. I watched it just like the rest of you. That's not normal. That is not normal. It is not the way it's going to happen for most of you. I don't care how much you pay a head coach. I don't care how much you invest in your roster. You can give yourself an opportunity to win. It's in all likelihood not going to look like that. Okay, so if we remove the extreme outlier from the equation and observe, I don't know, the rest of known history, you could have all the pieces in the world. And if this were tennis, that'd be wonderful. It was golf, it'd be wonderful. If it's ping pong, it would be wonderful. This is still a team sport. The same stuff wins. That is always won. And there's really, really only a few ways to do it right, a lot of ways to do it wrong. But the stuff that it takes is the stuff that it takes. I couldn't care less what Lane Kiffin makes. Don't care, because it's irrelevant to the process of what it takes, is my point. And it feels like if you were to use that logic in normal everyday life, people are okay with it. Jesse, it's like when we mix sports into the equation, when we mix college football into the equation. Smart people say the most casual things that I know good and well. You would never say in your own personal life. You wouldn't say it at work tomorrow morning. But you'll sit there and say, well, look, man, if we were only paying him eight and a half million, whatever, go eight and four, year one. But we're paying him 13 million. So that means the same human being is going to have more expected of him, even though scenario A versus scenario B, he's just capable of what he's capable of. I know the comment section will say, I'm carrying water for Lane Kiffin. Dude, I don't care what you say about Lane Kiffin. This could be Monty Kiffin. This could be any kiffin. This could be anybody under the sun. The same logic applies. It's just we hear this more now because coaches get paid way too much now. Who am I to say that coaches get paid a whole lot of money now? So you think you can, like, circumvent the process that it takes to win? So to go back to the question, you can either ask for $13 million or you can ask for patience, but you can't ask for both. I just think that's dumb. I don't think Georgie's dumb, but I think that's a dumb thing to say. I'm going to pay you whatever it took for me to pay you because I thought you were the best out there. And quite frankly, I've got the money to spend if I'm lsu. But you can absolutely ask me for patience because that's what it takes. It'll always take that. I don't care how big salaries get in this sport. Oh, side note, since we're on the subject, what are reasonable expectations for LSU this year? They got the third best odds to win the SEC. What are reasonable expectations? Is 8 and 4 okay? I would assume most of you are going to say no. Is 9 and 3 okay? I would assume most of you say, are we in the playoff at 9 and 3? If no, then no and then follow up. Okay, well, if he delivers a result that's not okay in year one, what are you going to do? Fire him? What's happening there? Let's move on. This is going to be a tough part of the show. Not fun. Some of you enjoy what I'm about to do, but I'm not going to enjoy what I'm about to do. The Truth Teller series is continuing and we're circling Mike Norvell's name tonight. Mike Norvell's been at FSU a pretty good while now. Mike Norvell's coming off back to back, really, really bad seasons after a really great season three years ago. And what we do in the Truth Teller series is we try and cut through all the plus, all the minus. We just try and filter out what's the reality here? I think Mike Norvell is an awesome dude. We went and hung out with him last spring. We spent a day down there and then we storm chased on the same day. We've never done that with any other coach. So Mike Novell's a great dude. I think it's a situation that's gotten away from him and I think it'll play itself out this fall and there'll be a lot of hot seat talk. And if there's one where it's going to go sideways during the year, maybe this is the one, I don't know. But it's just straight up not a good situation right now. It's the exact reason people look at reliance on the transfer portal and talk about it being a slippery slope. Because you've seen the absolute best and the absolute worst. In fact, you saw it in back to back years. They went 13 and 1 in 2023 and they went 2 and 10 the next year. Boggled the mind. And they only rebounded to five and seven last year over under six and a half this year. Right, Jesse, at FanDuel. And honestly, this is a situation where an over could hit and someone could still lose their job. Because I don't think anyone's okay with seven and five down there. Recruiting has not been good. Well, it's not been great. At its best it's been good. And that's the problem. There hasn't ever been a time in his tenure there where you looked at the bedrock of the program, the foundation of the program, and you said homegrown or good enough? It's just been every year. Let's spin the portal roulette wheel. Let's see what comes of it. And one year it was great and then the rest of the time, not so much. But their recruiting classes. We were on Rivals earlier today looking at their recruiting classes since he's been there. 21st, 21st, 23rd, 22nd, 12th, 20th, 20th and 15th. So five of those seven classes are 20th or worse. Now look, if you're looking to make a bowl game every year, that's plenty good enough. That's not what they're looking to do. You're in the same conference, you're in the same state as Miami. Let me put it another way. That's about the equivalent of South Carolina football. South Carolina is a program that if I were to just ask a Florida State fan's opinion on, they'd look down their nose at it. Maybe they shouldn't, but they would. That's you. That's you just in a more navigable conference. So if anything, South Carolina's exceeded you. Well, South Carolina's at least competed in the sec. You're in the acc and they.
- [68:02]
Julian Edelman
I don't.
- [68:03]
Josh Pate
Did they win a game away from home last year? I don't think they did, no. Yeah. So here's the other thing I was thinking about the other day before I even knew we were going to talk about Mike Norvell on the show tonight. I think sometimes in football, coaches get too far down the wrong road and they know, in fact, they probably know before you do, I'm headed down the wrong road. But they know they can't turn around. Like, it's a very narrow road. There's no room to pull a Y maneuver, get back out on the main road. And so they just have to keep going and try their best. I think if Mike Norvell could take the knowledge he has now from his past several years, but have a magic start over, I think he'd be okay because he wouldn't rely on the portal nearly as heavily. Now, the trade off is they probably wouldn't have that 2023 season, but what he would do is he'd go recruit. He wouldn't beat Miami for kids. He wouldn't be top 10, top 15. But they'd put together some solid classes and they'd put a premium on development and they'd take a little time, but they'd end up being fairly competitive. But I think more so than anything that be reliable, that be a known commodity. Right now it's just anyone's guess. And it has been that anyone's guess what Florida State's going to be. It was bound to happen to somebody. Like, I know everyone looks at Mike Norvell now and you label him all sorts of negative things and it's easy to criticize after you see how it turned out. Like, it's very easy to say, oh, man, they should have never leaned on the portal like that. Okay, well, yeah, now we all know that. But remember, he had never been a head coach in major college football yet. And so he gets a major head coaching job right at the beginning of a new wave of the sport. And so he leans on the portal because now that's a thing you can do. And they go 13 and 1. What would you have done? I think most people would have doubled down on that strategy. And by the way, for everyone who says they could tell in the moment that they were doomed to failure, no, you didn't. No, you couldn't tell that. Everyone's going to say, oh, man, everyone knew after that one year it was one and done. No, you didn't. And if you say otherwise, I'm going to ask you this. If everyone knew Florida State was a one and done just kind of flash in the pan, why did they start the 2024 season number 10 in the country? Why did I turn on college game day and watch Nick Saban waltzing around their practice field talking about how good that talent roster looked. Why did that happen? No, people didn't see it coming. It ended up happening, but it's not. Cause you saw it coming. Everyone sounds so smart after the fact, and I'm not. Look, Mike Norvell made some wrong decisions down there. Mike Norvell and their program, they've not recruited nearly well enough to the degree you should. If you're at Florida State, there are a million criticisms you can lob. All I'm saying is I kind of get it. It must be like trying to navigate through fog when you're, when you're a new head coach and you're kind of in this world where, oh, there's this thing called nil now that we can do legally. Oh, and the portals at our disposal. There was no blueprint. There wasn't like 70 years of historical context to draw on. Everyone's just trying to figure it out on the fly. And some people did, and some people crashed and burned. And then there's Mike Norvell, who's kind of figured out a way to do both. I mentioned they've got an over under of six and a half wins. The reason I know that is because of FanDuel, the exclusive odds provider of this show. Now that's not a hypothetical. You can go over there and look at that right now. I was looking at UConn +4/2 live earlier today. Didn't bet it, but I could have. It was there live. And there is a lot over there. You got Heisman odds already up. You got week one spreads already up. You got odds to win the conference already up. A lot of you may be listening and saying, yeah, I know I've already done it. Others amongst us may be saying, josh, I don't bet. That's fine. You can just go look. I mean, these numbers, it's like going to a library checking out a book, only this is the way we do that these days. You just got all the information in the world over there. If you're curious, like you're a Wake Forest fan. What does FanDuel, what are the odds makers think about about old coach Dickard over here in year two? You don't have to wonder. You can go look.
- [72:36]
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- [73:23]
Josh Pate
The mood Tracker continues tonight, and it's time to talk about Texas A and M. What is the mood of the fan base at Texas A and M right now? I'm gonna get a little nuanced here with this particular mood. I have Texas A&M's mood. Billy Lucci will understand this as Rollerblade ready? Yeah, yeah. I'm gonna give you a little time to think on it. Back in the day in Columbus, Georgia, not in the best part of town, but whatever. We went over to Lambert Skate center, birthday party after birthday party. Not mine because I don't celebrate my birthday, but friends of mine, birthday party after birthday party, and for a long time, they made me rent the roller skates. Those are the four wheel, two on each side, the older school skates. It was okay, but I would see the bigger kids out there riding the rollerblades. Just the inlines. And I wanted them, Jesse. I wanted them bad. And finally, I don't know what the age of rollerblade accountability is, but I finally reached it and they let me rent the rollerblades one day. Felt like a whole new man. I was 11 or 12, but I felt like a whole new man. But it made me feel like I could do things I just could not do in the roller skates. I could take the turns unlike I could in the roller skates. You can lean a whole lot more, you guys know. I mean, we're all skaters around here, so you guys all know how that feels. I look at Texas A&M 10 years ago and the vibe out there five years ago versus now, and it just feels like they've changed footwear. It just feels like they've thrown the blades on. Now here's the trade off. I saw some of the most horrific crashes that you could ever see in Lambert Skate center because of people on rollerblades. Those those of us in the roller skates taking the turns carefully. But no one ever split their head open on the boards on roller skates, at least not that I saw. Likewise you may get the first half of Texas A&M, South Carolina last year. When you throw in the rollerblades, it could go really, really poorly. But you know what else could happen, Jesse? The second half of that same game. And then you know what else could happen? I could be landing back to back number seven recruiting classes while also finishing top five in the transfer portal. I could have Texas right down the road and I could really look down there and say, you may outspend the rest of the country, but you're not going to be running circles around us. You're not going to beat us over the head with your checkbook and we can just this is not the Southwest Conference. We don't have to whisper this behind the dumpster. We could just say these things now. It's legal. And so time will tell what all that means. I can save you some time in the comments because there are going to be two themes in there. The first one is going to be a bunch of people calling Texas A and M a cult. They don't care. They don't care. And these are my friends, so I don't care. And then the second thing that I'll see a lot of is all those resources and they still haven't won anything. That's true. So there's validity to that. The difference is I believe there are going to be many of you, if I can speak for A and M fans here for a second, that is the theme of the entire segment. There are going to be many of you who are in the cannot crowd, and I think this is one of those classic cannot versus have not situations. You believe Texas A and M cannot compete for a national championship? I and their fan base happen to agree that they simply have not yet, but they fully believe that day is coming. It's kind of what makes this fun because there are a lot of folks out there who laugh at that idea. And A and M fans, they don't even acknowledge the laughter because they're kind of used to shutting the opinion of the rest of the college football public out for several different reasons. But there's an endless supply of fuel because like you said, they haven't done anything of note. They know it. Every morning when they wake up, they know it. But also they know they've got the resources it takes. This is not like some woebegone program that says, man, we hadn't won anything and also we can't afford to even compete anymore. A&M's one of those, which motivates them all the more in bucket number two Rollerblades. Jesse in line. That's our show. We appreciate it so much. We will be on the road this week. Be following on the socials. Oshpatecfb we'll let you know where we are Tuesday show this week. By the way, we're gonna pull off a good old fashioned Tuesday show. It's a travel conflict. We're gonna be on the road later in the week. So yeah. Busy week coming up. For director Bradley for producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Take care. Have a great start to your week and God bless.
- [78:28]
FanDuel Sponsor
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- [79:12]
Jacob Goldstein
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- [80:27]
Jennifer
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