Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: Final CFP Bracket + Michigan Latest & CFB’s Big Threat
Date: December 17, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Josh Pate dives into his finalized College Football Playoff (CFP) bracket predictions, provides the latest inside scoop on Michigan’s ongoing coaching search, and tackles big-picture threats to the future of college football. Pate also unpacks the controversial Joel Klatt "Cinderella" take, breaks down major portal names and transfer trends, and responds to audience mailbag questions with his trademark candor and humor. The show offers a thorough, insider's look at college football’s dynamics just ahead of the 2025 CFP playoffs.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Finalized College Football Playoff Bracket

(03:00–21:20)

• Josh’s Playoff Bracket Picks:

  • Bracket matchups include: Alabama vs. Oklahoma, JMU vs. Oregon, Tulane vs. Ole Miss, Miami vs. Texas A&M.
  • Josh reveals he’s finally “jumping off the Alabama train”:

    “Can I reasonably hold on to them even if they were my preseason national champion…? And the answer, of course, is no, I am not brave enough to hold on to them.” (09:30)

  • First round picks: Oklahoma over Alabama, Oregon over JMU, Ole Miss over Tulane, Texas A&M over Miami.
  • Predicts Indiana over Oklahoma in quarterfinals, Oregon over Texas Tech, Ohio State over Texas A&M, Georgia over Ole Miss.
  • Semis: Indiana vs. Oregon (Peach Bowl), Ohio State vs. Georgia (Fiesta Bowl).
  • Picks the championship game as Oregon vs. Ohio State, with the Buckeyes repeating as champs:

    “I'll take the Buckeyes to repeat. I just think they're the better team. And if they've made it that far, they've validated that they're clicking on all cylinders.” (17:39)

• Bracket Dynamics to Watch:

  • A potential Indiana–Alabama quarterfinal could be a “shock to the senses” with Indiana favored on a neutral field.

  “Indiana being a touchdown favorite on a neutral field against Alabama will be a shock… purely because of those logos.” (19:00)

  • Notes a close game or upset from G5 teams (Tulane, JMU) would set off social media chaos.

2. Michigan Coaching Search: The Latest

(21:23–37:49)

• Candidate Breakdown:

  • Kaylen DeBoer (Alabama): Repeated denials, but the Michigan searchers still holding out hope.

    “I've maintained the same stance on this... I don't think there's anything to Kaylen DeBoer to Michigan. Feel really good about that.” (22:35)

  • Kenny Dillingham (Arizona State): Genuinely loves ASU, strong ties. Not a foregone conclusion he’d leave.

    “That dude loves it there. There is a root system planted there with him for a number of reasons.” (27:35)

  • Jed Fisch (Washington): Formerly rising, but his name “has cooled.”
  • Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri): Not high on many fans’ boards, but Josh makes his case:

    “Eli Drinkwitz, it’s well known in the SEC, is one of the better staffers in the country… Always a scrappy team, haven’t won a national title, haven’t won the SEC. But they probably punch above what they should be punching at Missouri. Those are all the hallmarks of a good head coach to me.” (32:08)

• Challenges With the Search:

  • Michigan’s internal investigation, administrative uncertainty, and optics weigh against attracting top-tier candidates.

    “You cannot ignore… the internal investigation, the uncertainty with the AD, the administrative uncertainty right now. Those aren’t stop signs. Those could be roadblocks…” (34:34)

• Summary of Current State:

  • If top choices pass, Michigan may consider interim options or continue the search for a year.

3. Transfer Portal Report & Big Picture Trends

(37:49–44:09)

• Quarterback Transfer Highlights:

  • Sam Levitt (Arizona State): Top current portal QB; schools like Oregon, Miami, Indiana, LSU in the mix.
  • Dylan Raiola (Nebraska): Shocked many by entering the portal; Oregon and Louisville linked.
  • DJ Lagway (Florida): In portal after a “brutally honest” meeting with new staff.

    “It did not provide either party with the warm fuzzies… they left realizing he’s probably not going to fit here anymore.” (41:27)

• Other Impact Players:

  • Notable WRs: Nick Marsh (Michigan State), Perry Thompson & Malcolm Simmons (Auburn).
  • Notable RB: CJ Baxter (Texas).
  • Transfer trend: Teams seeking not just individual OL, but multi-player “blocks” for cohesion.

• Portal Takeaway:

  • The portal market is “only just starting” and will continue to intensify moving forward.

4. Debate on ‘Cinderellas’ in CFB & the Joel Klatt Controversy

(46:59–56:00)

• Context: Joel Klatt claimed, “We don't want Cinderellas. We want the best teams playing each other at the end. The NCAA basketball tournament is a joke. It's the dumbest tournament and the least fair tournament in all of sports.” (50:41, Klatt)

• Pate’s Take:

  • Agrees with Klatt’s context, not all presentation:

    “The foundation of it is sound. Not all the parts of it. The foundation… is sound.” (51:49)

  • The G5’s inclusion in CFP is “about avoiding lawsuits.”
  • True Cinderellas are “impossible” in modern college football due to portal and NIL realities:

    “It's really dumb to talk about Cinderellas in college football. There aren't Cinderellas in college football. There never will be.” (55:13)

  • Draws a basketball-football comparison, emphasizing the fundamental difference in structure and possibility for upsets.

• Alternative Solutions Discussed:

  • G5 should have a fully-funded, subsidized national championship of its own.

5. Who Needs a CFP Win Most? / Coaching & Perception

(56:00–63:00)

• Question: Which coach needs it most in this playoff?
• Analysis:
  • Kurt Signetti (Indiana): Needs nothing, but if Indiana wins a title, would trigger unrealistic expectations nationwide.

    “If Kurt Signetti in Indiana won the national title… It may be the greatest story in the history of college football.” (59:19) “It could actually be bad for the sport overall… It would create so much unrealistic expectation on every other coaching staff in America…” (60:02)

  • Mario Cristobal (Miami): Needs a playoff win to reframe his “underachiever” tag.
  • Kalen DeBoer (Alabama): Would be a huge accomplishment given late-season adversity.
  • Dan Lanning (Oregon): Needs to win big games, and this is his shot for a program breakthrough.

6. Biggest Threats to College Football’s Future

(63:00–73:30)

• Mailbag Question: Private equity? Calendar? NIL? Year-to-year free agency?

• Eli Drinkwitz Soundbite:

  “The system that we’re in is really sick right now… There’s showing signs of this thing really cracking, moving forward, and we need to get something under control.” (70:26, Drinkwitz)

• Pate’s View:

  • Acknowledges college football’s popularity, but major underlying issues.
  • “Collective bargaining” is coming and needed to restore cohesion, create structured rules, and incentivize staying at programs.

    “If we are in a collective bargaining world, that means we're also in a world where NIL as Wild West pay-for-play is gone and the true spirit of NIL takes its place.” (72:40)

  • Loss of “adhesive” elements (recruiting day excitement, spring games, bowl games) weakens fan connection.

    “A lot of the adhesive outside of the games themselves that attract fan to college football has suffered greatly.” (73:15)

7. Fixing Bowl Season: Radical Ideas

(73:30–79:00)

• Ideas Discussed:
  • Move bowl games to season start: Use the “bowl matchups” as high-profile kickoff games for the following season.
  • Open Bowl ‘Recruiting’: Eliminate tie-ins, bowls court and “bid” for teams throughout season; imagine reality TV/special broadcast coverage of the process.
  • 13th Data Point Scheme: Non-playoff teams get a 13th “bowl” game on Championship weekend; result factors into playoff selection.

8. Insider Culture – The ‘Vague Posting’ Trend

(80:00–84:00)

• Josh explains the tradition behind his use of the Jurassic Park water-cup GIF to signal impending news known only to insiders.
• Clarifies: “I’m not a reporter… In exchange… people tell me stuff all the time that I can be trusted with… So I will continue to use the water cup gif when I put it out there. That means I think big news is coming.” (82:20)

9. Outstanding Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On leaving Alabama as champ pick:

  "My main goal here is to be right... I just want to be right. And most of all, I don't want to be criticized. Okay?" (06:45)

• On Michigan coaching search:

  "You cannot ignore the internal investigation going on. You cannot ignore the uncertainty with the ad. You cannot ignore the administrative uncertainty right now. Now, those aren't stop signs. Those could be roadblocks..." (34:34)

• On G5 Playoff Inclusion:

  “In no... merit based world would James Madison be in the playoff. But the parameters... right now are that we take the five highest ranked conference champs.” (53:03)

• On Cinderellas:

  “There is no Cinderella opportunity in football. So instead, what we've trained our mind to do is... unlike basketball, you're not making a run in football. Because in football, you get to put your hands on people for four quarters and bigger, faster, stronger, really does win nine tenths of the time.” (55:42)

10. Final Segment: Bold Predictions (Fun/Light-Hearted)

(94:59–101:37)

• Josh reviews preseason “chalice of supremacy” listener predictions—some hilariously off base:
  • Clemson having three 1000-yard receivers (none reached the mark).
  • Michigan State beating Michigan and Penn State (finished poorly, coach fired).
  • Only one “flying creature” mascot (Oregon Ducks) made the playoff.
  • Nebraska “11-win Indiana” pick failed; ended 7–5.

Notable Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Quote | |-----------|---------------| | 03:00–21:20 | Playoff bracket breakdown & picks | | 21:23–37:49 | Michigan coaching search deep-dive | | 37:49–44:09 | Transfer portal trends & names | | 46:59–56:00 | Cinderella debate & Klatt discourse | | 56:00–63:00 | Which coaches need it / CFP perception | | 63:00–73:30 | Threats to college football / collective bargaining | | 73:30–79:00 | Radical ideas to ‘fix’ bowl season | | 80:00–84:00 | Show’s insider culture & vague posting explanation | | 94:59–101:37 | Recap of bold predictions from the preseason |

Conclusion & Takeaways

This episode is a dense, insightful, and candid ride through the state of college football at playoff time. Josh Pate expertly balances bracket analytics, news analysis, and freewheeling industry commentary, with plenty of memorable lines and sharp takes.

Listeners gain a clear view into both the postseason landscape and the underlying issues affecting college football at large, from playoff politics and transfer portal economics to the debate over college football's unique culture and future. The episode is especially valuable for diehard fans following the coaching carousel, playoff odds, and transfer news through both fan and insider lenses.