Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: First Year Coaches Who Can Win + My Worst Predictions
Date: April 1, 2026

Episode Overview

In this lively mailbag episode, Josh Pate fields listener questions about the outlook for first-year college football head coaches, examines who has the toughest early-season schedules, dives into the health and direction of the sport, and unpacks some of his worst predictions. The show also features reactions to a controversial David Pollack quote regarding Georgia's title chances and closes with a reflective segment on Steve Sarkisian’s career trajectory.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. First-Year Coaches: Projections & Candid Takes

(00:56 – 18:56)

• Lane Kiffin at LSU
  • Prediction: Kiffin will win a national championship at LSU, but won’t be there in 10 years due to the intensive nature of the SEC and high coaching churn.
    • “Lane Kiffin will win a national championship at LSU. That’s the first thing. The second thing is Lane Kiffin will not be at LSU in 10 years.” (02:24)
  • If it goes wrong, it's simply that "his best wasn’t good enough."
• Kyle Whittingham at Michigan
  • Acknowledged as a bridge coach—unlikely to be a long-term solution due to age, but may set up the next era and possibly find success.
    • “Kyle Whittingham is 66 years old right now. ... He is the bridge to get me to the next guy.” (04:52)
• Alex Golesh at Auburn
  • Unproven at high-profile level; success will hinge on finding the right quarterback and steadying a turbulent program. Needs a moment akin to FSU’s 2023 resurgence, but not just a portal spurt.
    • "His fate will be directly tied to the quarterback position.” (06:10)
• Matt Campbell at Penn State
  • Seen as the right fit; background at Iowa State should boost Penn State if the program fully backs him.
    • “That means all of Penn State has to be behind him. ... He’s got to win big games—that’s what Penn State didn’t do.” (08:22)
• John Sumrall at Florida
  • Infrastructure and recruiting are strong—the challenge is whether Sumrall's "best is good enough."
    • “The levers are there, you just gotta pull them ... Sometimes it’s fractions of inches here and there as to whether your best is good enough.” (10:23)
• James Franklin at Virginia Tech
  • Seen as a great fit for rebuilding; lower expectations and a fresh start could revitalize Franklin's career.
    • “Maybe James Franklin, post firing, got what James Franklin needed. Fresh start.” (11:26)
• Pat Fitzgerald at Michigan State & Collin Klein at Kansas State
  • Fitzgerald praised as a proven program builder but faces the challenge of keeping up with the game's evolution.
  • Klein faces the daunting task of redefining Kansas State in a more competitive Big 12.

2. The State of College Football: Optimism vs. Nostalgia

(18:57 – 26:33)

• Addressing Fears of Decline
  • Josh rejects constant nostalgia-driven negativity, acknowledging both real concerns and the tendency to exaggerate problems.
    • “We kind of made molehills into mountains as Meemaw would say ... We don’t want to do that.” (19:34)
• Biggest Issues:
  • "Connective tissue" losses, specifically the reduced significance of National Signing Day and disrupted traditions like spring games.
    • “I used to love National Signing Day. I don't pay much attention ... I have a far more difficult time getting invested in it when I see the roster churn.” (22:24)
  • Proposes incentivizing longer player tenures to revive signing day excitement.
  • Expresses hope for legislative solutions merging the SCORE and Broadcasting Acts to empower schools and restore fan engagement.

3. David Pollack’s Georgia Quarterback Take: Reality Check

(22:11 – 26:52)

• Pollack’s Quote:
  • "If Gunner Stockton's the same quarterback he was a year ago, Georgia has no chance to win a natty." (22:11, David Pollack)
  • Josh clarifies the nuance: not "can't win with Stockton," but "can't win if he hasn’t improved."
    • "The internet will listen to that and they'll hear him say Georgia can't win a title with Gunner Stockton. That's not what he said.” (22:59)
• Analysis:
  • Georgia remains a top contender; any regression comes down to a lower margin for error, not doom.
    • “Georgia’s going to be good enough to win a title if things go right for him. … They can afford for less things to go wrong.” (25:26)

4. Josh’s Worst Predictions: Accountability and Humor

(27:25 – 33:30)

• Recounts memorable misses:
  • Over-hyped Florida and DJ Lagway in preseason QB rankings (“It’s a disaster.” 27:40)
  • Overestimated the post-spring transfer portal impact in 2024
  • Repeatedly picked against eventual national title teams (Washington & Michigan, 2023)
    • "I went a combined 0 and 7 picking against them in regular season games ... thankfully, I picked the winner in the championship." (31:34)
  • Admits overconfidence in Brian Kelly’s fit at LSU, misreading cultural fit and program demands.
    • “Yes, I thought Brian Kelly would do OK at LSU. Yes, I thought it was a great fit… In my defense, there is no defending me.” (32:50)

5. Toughest 2026 First Five Games: Schedules to Watch

(33:30 – 37:56)

• Oklahoma: Plays Michigan (Week 2), Georgia (Week 4), Texas (Week 6).
• USC: Several cross-country games, including at Rutgers, Oregon, Washington, and Penn State.
• LSU: Clemson, at Ole Miss, and Texas A&M among first four.
• Texas: Faces Ohio State, Tennessee (away), Oklahoma in opening stretch.
• Florida State: SMU, Alabama, Virginia, Louisville, Miami, and Clemson—all before Week 8.
• Colorado: Multiple road games early (Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Baylor), then Texas Tech at home.
  • “That's three top 15 teams in the first six weeks [for Oklahoma].” (33:40)

6. Conference Parity vs. Powerhouses

(37:56 – 39:56)

• On whether a league should root for a dominant team (Miami/ACC, Texas Tech/Big 12) or parity:
  • “I want both ... I want them to be dominant, and then I want it to have a downstream effect on the rest of my league.” (39:33)
  • Cites Indiana’s recent national title as evidence that anyone can rise, rejection of “can’t compete” defeatism.
    • “In the SEC, do you see anyone looking around saying, boy, Georgia and Kirby, as long as they're there, not much we can do. Nobody thinks that way.” (39:55)

7. Personal Inspiration and College Football Culture

(40:00 – 41:50)

• Credits his dad and the culture of the South for his enduring love of college football and fond memories of watching old games on VHS.
  • “I’d say Dad. … I just watched all these old games. Growing up in the South ... college football culture is different than just being around college football.” (40:05)

8. The Truth About Steve Sarkisian

(44:28 – 48:57)

• Responds to criticism that he’s too easy on Sark:
  • “I don’t know if you can handle the truth, Jack ... The truth about Steve Sarkisian is that I think he is at another of several inflection points in his career.” (44:51)
  • Explores Sark's unique journey (USC firing, Alabama rehab with Saban, up-and-downs at Texas), noting that Texas is now truly loaded for the first time in years.
    • “Texas was ... lied about ... They kept talking about how loaded Texas was, about how Texas had all the players they needed. No, they didn’t.” (46:02)
  • The most important part of his career is still to come; legacy could shift forever with a national title.
    • “If they were to win a national title at Texas ... or maybe they win multiple ... I think the most important chapter of Steve Sarkeesian’s book probably hasn’t even been written yet.” (47:16)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On coaching churn:
  “I don't think much of anyone is still at the same program they are 10 years from now. ... That's just kind of the overall nature of college football right now.” (03:02)
• On college football nostalgia:
  “There's something about college football in the past that you preferred more to the way ... things are working right now. That's okay.” (20:24)
• On conference dynamics:
  “Don't act broke ... Whomst amongst us doesn't have a billionaire cousin that we couldn't call and say, hey, we need money for football.” (39:33)
• On his worst predictions:
  “Those were four of them. Let's move along.” (33:17)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Topic | Time | | --- | --- | | First-year coach outlooks | 00:56 – 18:56 | | State of college football | 18:57 – 26:33 | | David Pollack/Georgia QB debate | 22:11 – 26:52 | | Josh’s worst predictions | 27:25 – 33:30 | | Toughest opening schedules of 2026 | 33:30 – 37:56 | | Conference parity vs. dominant teams | 37:56 – 39:56 | | Roots of college football fandom | 40:00 – 41:50 | | The “Truth” about Steve Sarkisian | 44:28 – 48:57 |

Overall Tone & Takeaways

Josh Pate delivers his trademark synthesis of information, prediction, humor, and transparency. He welcomes accountability for his past errors, provides frank evaluations of new coaching hires, and stands firm against exaggerated pessimism about the sport's future. The episode is engaging, wide-ranging, and ultimately optimistic about college football’s adaptability—even as it pays respect to the traditions and “connective tissue” that matter most to diehards.

Listeners come away with an honest, detailed look at the coming season's biggest storylines, a reaffirmed sense of the sport's enduring strengths, and a reminder that even the experts miss a few predictions along the way.