Josh Pate’s College Football Show

Episode: National Championship Prediction + END Monday Title Games & Portal Chaos
Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Josh Pate

Overview

In this episode, Josh Pate delivers his highly anticipated national championship prediction for the Miami vs. Indiana matchup, dives into the latest transfer portal movement, discusses the anticlimactic timing of college football’s title game, and fields rapid-fire mailbag questions — all in his trademark direct, information-heavy style. He navigates storylines around underdog ascendance, roster building, coaching hires, and the future of the college game, keeping a sharp eye on both on-field matchups and structural issues facing the sport.

National Championship Preview & Prediction

(Begins at 02:49)

Matchup: Miami vs. Indiana

• Setting the Stage
  • Neither team was widely picked in July (“Apparently if you didn’t predict this in July, you don’t know ball... Well, we don’t because we didn’t predict it.” [03:23])
  • Both teams represent a significant storyline: Indiana for an all-time Cinderella run, Miami for returning to 1980s glory under Mario Cristobal.

Key Game Analysis

• Line of Scrimmage: The Deciding Factor

  • “It all boils down to the line of scrimmage. Wouldn’t you know that with all these changes in college football, this game still comes down to the two teams that have been getting it done at the highest level on the line of scrimmage.” [06:51]
  • Miami’s run game has peaked in the playoff; they’ve surpassed 150 yards rushing against strong defenses, including Ohio State and Ole Miss.
  • Mark Fletcher (Miami RB) has played his best football “at the most important time of the year.” [08:27]

• Indiana’s Defense: A True Test

  • Indiana’s defense, especially their run D, is a force: “This is the first of Indiana’s playoff games where I’ve legitimately found myself saying, but you know, Indiana’s really got to deal with them too. Them being Miami.” [06:55]
  • Indiana’s edge: They’ve “been the best team in the country for a vast majority of the season.” [06:26]

• The Mendoza Factor

  • Fernando Mendoza (Indiana QB), 2025 Heisman winner, is red-hot: “He went and played good enough to win the Heisman Trophy, rightfully so. And then he’s gotten better since he won the Heisman Trophy.” [19:15]
  • Can’t let him settle in: “You cannot let him get zoned in... He had more touchdowns than incompletions in a semifinal playoff situation. So that’s pretty terrifying.” [12:45]

• Miami’s Defensive Edge

  • Miami is top 5 in sacks and elite in run defense (#6 nationally), but Indiana is “the number one third down offense in the country — and it’s not close.” [13:39]

Game Flow, Style, and Edges

• Miami’s Game Plan

  • Should try to “grind it and slow it down.” [15:57]
  • Don’t want to run 88 plays — “Their sweet spot is the kind of game where...you run 58, 62 plays, but you lean, you lean.” [17:33]

• Indiana’s Steadiness

  • “They have been the excellence of execution... Their critical mistakes would shock me most.” [18:09]
  • Indiana’s ability to handle high-pressure moments has set them apart in titles and playoffs.

Josh’s Prediction

• On the Spread & Outcome
  • Vegas: Indiana -8.5; Josh’s model: Indiana -5 [21:08]
  • “I think Miami’s going to play their best game. So I’m going to ride that hunch...I’ll take Miami to win outright and Miami wins the national championship in their own building.” [22:14]
  • “I don’t think a whole lot of people are tailing me on that one, but that’s okay.” [22:28]
  • Notable: Despite picking Miami, he stresses that Indiana has “proven me wrong every time. They may very well do it again Monday night.” [23:21]

Transfer Portal & Roster Chaos

(Begins at 27:37)

Major Portal Moves

• QB Carousel

  • LSU: Lands Sam Levitt, “a former Big 12 offensive freshman of the year” [27:55]
  • Oregon: Signs Dylan Raiola, top 100 QB, even as Dante Moore’s NFL decision looms [28:41]
  • Miami: “Huge offer, over 6 million per year” for Ty Simpson — turned down as he heads to the NFL [32:27]

• Other Notables

  • Notre Dame: Multiple plug-ins, including Keon Keighley (EDGE via Alabama) and Ohio State WRs Quincy Porter & Mylan Graham [29:56]
  • Jordan Seaton (Colorado OT): “Number seven overall player in the portal...he’s going in the transfer portal.” [31:08]

• Portal Etiquette

  • “My humble advice...do not commission the creative media department inside the building you’re about to leave...to edit a video...only to then leverage that video and utilize it to announce your departure. Not the best look, can we all agree to that?” [31:25]

Anticlimactic Playoff Timing & College Football’s Calendar Woes

(Begins at 48:03)

• Fan Frustration
  • Mailbag questioner Ethan: “Why are the playoffs so long? It feels like it’s just dragging to an anticlimactic end on Monday.” [48:08]
  • Josh agrees: “It is anticlimactic. The season’s got to be fixed. The schedule’s got to be fixed...” [48:31]

Proposed Solutions

• Move the Title Game

  • “College football, in my dream world, would crown a national champion on January 1, New Year’s Day.” [50:31]
  • Suggests: start playoff first December weekend, finish by Jan 1.

• Negotiating with the NFL

  • “I would love for you guys [NFL] to go early afternoon/mid-afternoon as a double NFL playoff game lead-in to a primetime national championship game that Saturday night.” [52:16]
  • “Who’s driving the bus [in college football]? Nobody. Bus is moving, but we don’t know who’s driving it.” [54:53]

• Overlap with Portal

  • Portal and title game overlap creates “a handful of teams playing the most important games of their seasons overlapping with arguably the most important talent acquisition period of their year.” [55:12]

Indiana’s Cinderella Run — Historical Importance

(Begins at 34:42)

• Mailbag: Is Indiana & Kurt Signetti’s run the greatest CFB story ever?

  • “I’d call it the best college football story in my life.” [35:06]
  • Indiana’s “process-oriented,” roster-building approach praised: “If you guys are starting to value the principles and the belief system...the evaluation and development system in Indiana...I’m all in for that.” [37:49]

• On Coaching Searches

  • “Kurt Signetti has fundamentally changed the way coaching searches operate.” [39:23]
  • “I don’t need you to go find the next Kurt Signetti. I just need you to consider more candidates in these coaching searches, cast a little wider net.” [41:02]

Best Quotes on Indiana & College Football

• “Indiana football meant nothing to me. Growing up, Indiana football was the team that the other Big Ten teams hoped was on the schedule so that they could guarantee at least one W in conference play.” [35:34]
• “Each play like it has a history and a life of its own. We’re about reinforcing the values and principles of the organization and recruiting people and hiring people that reflect those values. People think that’s coach speak...he just kind of looks back blankly as if to say, do you think I’m joking?” [42:00; on Signetti’s approach]

Candidates for “Next Indiana” Turnaround

(Begins at 65:51)

• Josh’s Picks:

  • Big Ten: Michigan State (Pat Fitzgerald hire is “the steal of the cycle”) [67:23]
  • SEC: Kentucky (“Will Stein’s a very highly thought of offensive mind”) [69:29]
  • Wild Card: Oklahoma State (Eric Morris hire; big money now unlocked) [71:53]

• Emphasizes: It’s hard to truly replicate Indiana’s leap; “You can’t have another Indiana that comes out of nowhere.” [66:32]

Coach & Team Building Philosophy

(Begins at 79:06; Kaylen DeBoer Mailbag Q)

• Is DeBoer “in over his head” at Alabama?
  • “I don’t think Kaylen DeBoer is in over his head is the first answer to that question. I think he’s doing fine. Like, correct me if I’m wrong, they just won a playoff game.” [79:36]
  • On roster strategy: “You got to kill it in high school recruiting...develop them...invest in them...supplement via the portal.” [80:22]
  • Stresses difference between Alabama/Georgia’s philosophy vs. Clemson (“I’m knocking Clemson because they’ve...not taken the Portal seriously”) [81:44]

Industry Rumors: ESPN and the Show’s Future

(Begins at 63:45)

• On ESPN rumors:
  • “Absolutely nothing for the show. ... No deal we’re signing impacts the show.” [63:51]
  • Describes ESPN as being supportive, not interfering: “Do you know how many times...anyone got in my ear and told me to say anything?..That’d be a goose egg. Zero.” [65:22]

Fan and Charity Highlights

(Magnolia Foundation Update, 56:06)

• Magnolia Foundation: Over $30,000 raised by listeners over Christmas, supported 191 families who lost children [56:25]
• Josh is deeply appreciative of his audience’s community impact.

Notable Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On why Indiana’s mistakes would be the biggest surprise:

  “The thing happening that would shock me the most is several critical mistakes by Indiana. It wouldn’t shock me if Miami won. It would shock me if Miami won because of self inflicted...If Indiana was victim of that, that would genuinely shock me.” [18:09]

• On Playoff Drag:

  “It is anticlimactic. The season’s got to be fixed. Like, the schedule’s got to be fixed. It’s easy to say. It’s harder to do. That doesn’t need to be a deterrent.” [48:31]

• On College Football’s Leadership:

  “The NFL has no farm system. They don’t need a farm system. ...You’ve got physical and brand development twofold that take place for the NFL courtesy of college football, free of charge. NFL doesn’t have to invest a dime in it. So they benefit greatly from college football.” [51:58]

• On Coach Kurt Signetti:

  “The approach is pretty easy to figure out. The nuance, the layers, that’s different. But the approach itself...Kurt Signetti is not even bashful about talking about.” [41:10]

  “It’s not about the plan. It’s about the action.” [43:44]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• National Championship Preview: 02:49–24:00
• Transfer Portal & Offseason Moves: 27:37–35:00
• Indiana’s Story & Coaching Impact: 34:42–47:30
• College Football’s Playoff Schedule Problem: 48:03–56:05
• Magnolia Foundation/Charity Update: 56:06–61:40
• Potential Indiana-Like Turnarounds: 65:51–73:00
• Alabama/DeBoer Mailbag & Roster Building: 79:06–84:42
• ESPN/Show Business News: 63:45–65:51

Final Thoughts

Josh’s show offers a deep, grounded perspective on why Indiana’s run is historic (and likely unrepeatable), how Miami can realistically beat them, the wild current of the transfer portal, and what needs to change in college football’s broader structure — all with a no-nonsense, “serve the audience” tone. His passionate plea for process-oriented progress — on the field and in administrative decision-making — is clear throughout.

For the transcript’s full flavor, listen for Josh’s frequent asides and banter, which consistently keep things authentic, frank, and just self-deprecating enough.