Transcript
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US Paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.
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I'm sitting here with this huge bag of mail. We got so much left over from Q and A submissions over the weeks and months that I thought it was time. And I think it is time. And it feels like it is time to bring back the Pace State Extra Podcast formerly known as the Late Kick Extra Podcast those of you who have rolled with us from the beginning know this to be, over time, our most entertaining avenue of content. Those of you over time know that you can only find this in the podcast feeds on Spotify or Apple or whatnot. You're really not going to see this on the YouTube channel? Maybe. Maybe if Jesse gets around to it, you see a clip or two. But we don't put this in long form on the YouTube channel. So here's the deal. I just have a bunch of things written down on a piece of paper. I have a few questions that you asked saved, and I will just meander through these as the morning rolls on. Happy you're with us here. Our next live show will be Thursday night, but in the meantime, there's really no formatted way we do this. I just dive into it. So first question and I close my eyes and I point my index finger and oh good, we actually land on one of my favorites. Kyle from Tacoma, Washington, asked about preseason rankings. Are preseason rankings the most useless thing we do in college football? Who is we, Kyle? Who is we? I can't include myself and we because I am going to take a very unpopular stance here. I love preseason rankings. I heavily traffic in them. I participate in them. I put out several versions of them. I'm not even talking about power ratings either. I mean just straight up rankings as if I filled it out one by one on a ballot. I love them. I love them because it makes June and July and August go by faster. I love them because it's this quantitative, visual way of stacking teams. In order of what? In order of your opinion? Now, what we do know is nothing's actually been accomplished in the spring and summer. So no one needs to hold anyone to these things. God knows, last year the last thing I wanted anyone doing was holding me to my preseason rankings. Although this actually is a little bit of a baked in excuse because I need them. Penn State, everyone had them in their top 10. Clemson, I think most everyone had them in their top 10. Who else? LSU, most people had them in their top 10. I don't know that anyone started Indiana number one in the preseason or Miami number two in the preseason. So yes, it's not meant to be gospel. It's not meant to be anything like that. But let's just walk through this, Zach and anyone else listening. I don't know if this is a silent minority or a silent majority, but I know a lot of people out there can't wait to see these things and or do them themselves in the spring and summer. I love them. So there's this counter argument that, oh, man, they're a waste of time, which, you know, that's opinion. But then there's this other counterargument that, oh, they're bad. They're bad for college football, man, they do all kinds of harm. And the working theory there, just to prove to you that I do know the sentiment here, I do understand the sentiment. The working theory is everyone sets this opinion in the spring or the summer, even though no games have been played. And that's all well and good. The problem is the opinion starts to crystallize, and then it disproportionately shapes what's going to happen during the season. That is, if a team starts unranked, they have to do twice the work to get up into the top 10. As a team that started ranked, especially if they were ranked top five, because that team can even lose a game and not fall further than the team that was outside the top 25 that's been doing nothing but winning. And so it's unfair. Like the. The thinking there's everyone should start from the starting line and then boom, the horn sounds and everyone should take off at the same time, and only then should we start grading the runners or only then should we start ranking the teams. I think you can do both. So I think what you have to do is you have to find a happy medium here. You have to understand both sides of that equation. You have to find a happy medium, and you have to look at it, and you have to say, it's okay to rank these teams as long as we understand what we're doing. So, Zach, this is where you and I have to have a little private conversation that everyone else is just going to be privy to. So what do we think we're doing in the preseason? What do we think we're doing where we're ranking teams? I'll tell you what I think I'm doing. Having fun, trying to maybe loosely map out how I see things happening. And it's important to note, when I rank teams, I'm not predicting how I think they're going to end. Case in point, LSU this upcoming year, maybe I'll start LSU 11th, but then I predict them to go to the Final Four. Well, that doesn't make sense, Josh. If you're going to predict them to go to the Final Four, shouldn't they be one of your top four teams? No, because I don't think they're going to start the season. And as one of the best four teams, I think it may take them a while and then I think they may gel late and they may surge late. Which means I think they're starting the season as one of the 10 or 15 best teams in the country and I think they'll finish as one of the top four. That's just how my own methodology works. But put that to the side for a second. Let's say I start LSU at fifth and they come out of the gate and they get smoked by Clemson at home even though they're a double digit favorite. And it's a shock to everyone's senses. Well, you got to be willing to drop LSU completely. You got to be willing to have wild fluctuations in your rankings in the first few weeks of the season because it stands to reason 4/4 of actual football should be worth more to you than five months of opinion building. Notre Dame was a perfect example of this last year. So Notre Dame, I can't remember where I had him ranked, but I had him ranked high to start the year. They lose close to Miami, dropped them a little bit. Not much, but dropped them a little bit. Then they had the bye week, then they lost to A and M. I had them unranked after that. The AP didn't. The AP kept them ranked. I disagreed with that. Obviously, had Notre Dame started the season ranked 30th, they wouldn't have climbed into the top 25 by losing those two games. But since they started the season ranked top 10, there was this resistance to drop them out, especially because they played close games. And my thinking there is, hey, if they really are a top 10 team, they got 10 more games to prove it. And you know what? They did and you know what? They ended up climbing again. So Zach, I think as long as you're willing to do that, as long as you're willing to have huge wild swings and fluctuations in your first three or four weeks as you calibrate the thing and you sort of bang out the dents and work out the inaccuracies. I'm fine with preseason rankings. I think they're really fun. I do agree with you that there are too many people, probably still, that stay married to them. It remains people's defaults. And you can get into October a lot of times in college football and people are still clinging to their preseason notions by October. I mean, I would say midway through September, but especially by October. You shouldn't have a single doubt in your mind about a team because of your preseason prediction. If your preseason prediction is they're going to be a top 10 team, and they've played like a team outside the top 40 for four weeks in a row. You were just wrong. You got to recalibrate. You're going to be wrong. You're going to be wrong about several teams. I will also tell you this. There are a lot of head coaches of teams out there that four weeks into the season ended up being wrong about their own team. So as long as we have that attitude, then I don't know anything is wrong with preseason rankings. And also, what are you going to do instead of that? Really? Let's walk this through. I'm going to take, like, one more minute on this and we'll move on. I got a lot to get to. What would you do instead, Zach, if you did not have preseason rankings? If someone could wave a magic wand and it just became illegal to rank teams in the preseason, do you really want to spend all spring and summer going through preview magazines and they're just being blank pages like you got your team preview. But then there's no predictions anywhere. There's no thoughts, there's no comparative analysis of how I think Purdue stacks up to Penn State, Alabama and lsu. Here's how I think. Think they compare. None of that. You really want none of that. If you do, Zach, that's your prerogative. I would just tell you I think it's a net positive for college football to have preseason rankings. As long as you do them the right way. Let's not forget that second part. As long as you do it the right way.
