Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: Playoff Expansion Fails + Winter Storm Fallout & Portal Winners/Losers
Date: January 30, 2026
Host: Josh Pate

Episode Overview

Josh Pate kicks off this episode from an icy, still-recovering Nashville, weaving behind-the-scenes insights and sharp analysis into the current state of college football. The show’s centerpiece is a deep dive on the failed College Football Playoff (CFP) expansion talks, but Josh also tackles winter storm chaos in Tennessee, transfer portal winners and losers, reactions to the Big Ten schedule release, and an assessment of the “mood” inside the Tennessee Volunteers fanbase. He closes with a bold prediction on Notre Dame’s championship chances under Marcus Freeman.

Main Theme: College Football Playoff Expansion Stalemate

Key Points

• No Expansion (02:16)

  • The CFP will remain at 12 teams because the SEC and Big Ten could not reach an agreement to expand, despite strong recent reporting and public debate.
  • "The SEC and the Big Ten are really at each other's throats right now... and through some very, very fancy maneuvering ... they both have to sign off on any expansion plans. And so, in the net, we just stay at 12." – Josh Pate (04:24)

• Behind the Stalemate (06:03)

  • The Big Ten wants a 24-team playoff with more auto-bids and play-in games; the SEC prefers a 16-team format with 5 auto-bids and 11 at-large slots.
  • Remaining conferences favor the SEC's more modest plan, but lack power to sway the direction.

• Irony of Egos (09:00)

  • Petty power struggles between the SEC and Big Ten result in preservation of the 12-team playoff, aligning (for now) with the preference of many fans and Josh himself.
  • “Three cheers for egos right now. Because if that’s what’s keeping me at 12 teams, then that’s what’s keeping me at 12 teams. I’m happy about it.” (09:50)

• Recent Playoff Tweaks and Tiebreaker Fixes (11:15)

  • Adjustments have already been made to seeding and auto-bid rules, especially after two Group of 5 (G5) teams made the field last year.
  • Focus now is on fairer tiebreakers and ensuring best G5 team gets in based on rankings — not simply record.
  • “You get the best of the G5 as the guaranteed G5 team.” (13:26)

• Notre Dame’s Guarantee (14:07)

  • Josh pushes back on criticism that Notre Dame’s auto-bid is unfair, predicting the field would look similar with or without it.

Playoff Expansion Debate: When Is More Needed? (16:06)

• Assessing Expansion’s Necessity

  • Josh challenges listeners: how do you know playoff expansion is needed, outside of financial arguments?
  • “I do not think the size of the playoff should be, ‘Let’s be sure it’s big enough where all the teams who are capable of winning a title are in.’ I couldn’t care less about what you’re capable of. I care about what you earned.” – Josh Pate (19:12)

• Arguments from Expansionists

  • Responds to the common claim that more teams like last year’s 10-seed Miami (who went to the title game) deserve access. Josh disagrees, preferring earned spots to hypothetical “capability.”

• Hypocrisy in Playoff Debate (22:24)

  • Early expansion was publicly justified on fan sentiment — now, as talk of 24 teams emerges, proponents have dropped any mention of public opinion, exposing their real motivation: money.
  • “They never cared what you thought. It’s just convenient for them in the moment you happen to agree with them… But your motivation as a fan for expanding from four to whatever was largely just you thought it would be better for the sport. Their motivation was we’ve got to make more money.” – Josh (23:38)

Big Ten Schedule Release & Implications (29:10)

Noteworthy Schedule Outcomes

• USC’s Unique Advantage (31:15)

  • Only Big Ten team with two byes, due to a week zero game. Also notably avoids brutal late fall northern road trips.
  • “USC... only has one bad weather threat game... I would call USC a winner there.” (32:41)

• Northwestern’s Nightmare (33:11)

  • Faces 11 consecutive games after an early bye, including road trips to several conference powers.
  • “This is barbarism. Northwestern doesn’t even know it yet, but they’re just behind the gates underground at the Coliseum… and bad things happen.” (34:47)

• Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan

  • Penn State: favorable draw, skips Ohio State and Oregon, possible playoff run (38:05)
  • Indiana: opens with 9 straight, modeled as a 9+ win program, true test after recent title (40:00)
  • Ohio State: tough road schedule, including Texas, Iowa, USC, Nebraska (41:10)
  • Michigan: five of top six teams in conference, tough opponents, has scheduling edges in spots (42:15)

• Schedule Release Should Be a Bigger Event

  • Josh laments lack of fanfare: “The NFL’s figured this out. I don’t get why college football can’t figure this out.” (44:09)

Transfer Portal Winners, Losers, and Trends (45:31)

Portal Winners

• Indiana & LSU (46:14)

  • Indiana: Added 17 high-caliber players (avg. grade +14 points over departures), including TCU QB Josh Hoover and WR Nick Marsh.
  • LSU: Loaded up at key positions (No. 1 QB, top edge players, OT, and WRs), deep and complementary class. “Unequivocally, these are home run classes.” (47:29)

• State of Texas Success

  • Texas Tech (#3), Texas A&M (#4), Houston (#7), Texas (#9) – all loaded up, especially Texas with top RBs and key defensive players.
  • Houston’s portal activity especially lauded for positioning the Cougars as real Big 12 contenders. (50:35)

Portal “Losers” and Complicated Cases

• Iowa State

  • Gutted by Matt Campbell’s exit to Penn State. Lost 54, gained 48, but lost significantly more talent than gained.
  • “Loser has a kind of connotation like, ‘Oh, you screwed up.’ They didn’t screw up anything. It just is the way it is now.” – Josh (53:22)

• USC, Georgia, Alabama

  • Not in top 45, but not real “losers” – instead, these power programs are shedding “dead weight” and trusting traditional recruiting.

• Program Overhauls

  • New coaches at Penn State (Campbell), Virginia Tech (Franklin), Oklahoma State (Morris) all bringing major transfer hauls and upgrading rosters—remarkable for programs coming off tough years. (55:00)

State of the Sport: Is College Football Broken? (58:02)

• A "Damp Down the Panic" Segment

  • Listener asks: “Is college football salvageable or is it just too far gone?”
  • Josh urges calm, distinguishing between a sport that’s “flawed” versus “broken.”
  • “College football may be flawed, but it is a long way from being broken. If we lost college football tonight, you would weep tomorrow right next to me. College football’s not broken. College football’s flawed. If it’s broken, there’s probably no fixing it.” (01:01:16)

• Offseason Gloom Is Overstated

  • Notes that fan and media negativity peaks when there are no games, yet engagement and TV numbers remain strong come August and September.

• The System Knows Change is Needed

  • Assures fans that “people who matter” are aware of the sport’s challenges, and action will eventually be taken.

Winter Storm Fallout & Community Resilience (01:06:12)

• Personal & Local Impact

  • Devastating cold and loss of power in Nashville: “Every tree in about five counties is either down or leaning very, very precariously because it’s covered with ice.” (01:08:48)
  • Praise for electrical line workers, frustration with "bureaucracy" and slow restoration efforts.

• Storm Survival Tips

  • Josh jokes about fleeing south temporarily, defends his preparedness, and advocates for practical education in weather awareness.

Tennessee Volunteers Mood Tracker (01:15:04)

• Summary of Program Health

  • Current mood: “Pretty good. Could be better, could be worse.”
  • “You can appreciate that it’s not quite where you want it to be, but also appreciate it’s a long way from what it used to be.” (01:18:59)
  • New QB questions, young roster, new DC Jim Knowles’ complex system brings wait-and-see approach.

• Historical Context

  • Recognizes Tennessee’s “perennial national title contender” history, and scoffs at the notion that the program’s window has closed.
  • Recruiting trending up (No. 11 class in 2025, No. 9 in 2026).

Notre Dame: National Title Chances Under Marcus Freeman (01:23:51)

• Listener Question: Will Notre Dame win a championship under Marcus Freeman in 2–4 years?

  • “Yes, I think they’re going to win a national championship in the next one to four years.” (01:24:33)

• Supporting Arguments

  • Notre Dame now possesses alignment, staff, QB, development, and identity to compete nationally.
  • Notre Dame have the best preseason odds to win it, with a very favorable schedule: “It’s a soft schedule. They know it... That probably means they can afford to lose one game and know they’re in the playoff.” (01:26:22)

• Debunking "Notre Dame Can't Win" Myths

  • Any argument that “Notre Dame can’t win in this modern era” is refuted; if trends now favor the Big Ten, that inherently helps Notre Dame.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (Timestamps)

• On CFP Power Brokers:
  “The dude with the worst idea in the room, Tony Petiti, is actually who got me what I wanted, which is nothing. I wanted the College Football Playoff to stay at 12.” (09:33)

• On Transfer Portal Dynamics:
  “I just really trust [A&M’s] evaluation there and then I trust the development once they get there.” (50:17)

• On College Football’s Value:
  “Even with its flaws, it’s still the greatest sport on the face of the earth.” (01:02:25)

• On Preparedness:
  “There’s no reason why I should have walked in the office last week and asked Mitch if he’s ready for the freezing rain. And for him to ask me, ‘What is freezing rain?’” (01:12:30)

• On Notre Dame’s Schedule:
  “This is a pathetic schedule, but it is the schedule they’re playing... That probably means they can afford to lose one game and know they’re in the playoff.” (01:26:22)

Important Timestamps

• Playoff expansion standoff explained – 02:16–16:06
• Debate on playoff necessity and expansion logic – 16:06–26:52
• Big Ten schedule breakdown – Winners and losers – 29:10–45:31
• Transfer portal winners, losers, and evaluation – 45:31–58:02
• Segment on “is college football broken?” – 58:02–01:06:12
• Nashville winter storm recap and commentary – 01:06:12–01:15:04
• Tennessee Mood Tracker – 01:15:04–01:23:51
• Notre Dame national title prediction – 01:23:51–01:29:00

Summary

This episode is packed with insight and wit, balancing deep dives on college football’s most urgent controversies with humor and fan-centric perspective. Josh Pate uses plain language, colorful analogies, and a calm, rational approach to navigate heated topics like playoff expansion, transfer chaos, fan discontent, and the endurance of the sport he loves. Whether you’re a playoff purist, portal analyst, or just freezing in Tennessee, there’s something here for every college football fan.