Josh Pate’s College Football Show

Episode: Real National Title Contenders + Lincoln Riley Doubt & Hardest Schedules
Date: February 11, 2026

Episode Overview

Josh Pate delivers his signature, in-depth look at the 2026 college football landscape with focus on the following topics:

• Introducing a new fan game for predicting national title contenders
• Dissecting which teams are truly in the national championship "bubble"
• Addressing skepticism around Lincoln Riley at USC
• Evaluating programs with the strongest and weakest title prospects
• Analyzing the toughest schedules in college football this season
• Quick takes on the NFL Draft and the implications for college stars
• Examining the high-stakes mood and expectations at Texas

Throughout, Josh maintains his direct, informed, and lightly comedic tone, focusing on substance over hot takes.

Key Discussion Points

1. The College Football Survivor Bubble Game

[04:20 - 16:50]

• Concept Introduced: Josh creates a new game, “College Football Survivor Bubble”, inspired by Survivor and fantasy football.
• Gameplay:
  • Each player (or fan) lists all teams they believe could realistically win the national title this season.
  • Goal: Make your “bubble” as small as possible without leaving out the eventual champ.
  • The winner is the person with the smallest correct bubble; losers face agreed-upon consequences.
• Humor & Stakes:
  • “When I originally floated this concept to Jesse, it was death. That was our premise... We decided probably people shouldn’t have to die here, but you should really have to skirt it.” – Josh Pate [07:18]
  • Real consequences suggested; suffering (at least emotional) is required for those who lose by missing the champ.
• Key Rules & Example:
  • Can’t just include 50 teams to play it safe; “smallest correct” wins, but if everyone’s correct, the largest bubble loses.
  • Encourages listeners to debate and track their “bubble” throughout the offseason.

2. Who Truly Belongs in the Title Contender Bubble

[16:50 - 20:38]

• Josh’s Candidate Teams:
  • "No brainers" include: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Indiana, Oregon, Georgia, Texas Tech, Miami, LSU, A&M, Alabama, Oklahoma.
  • “These are teams... just based on roster talent alone. You cannot be excluding them.” – Josh [11:18]
• Quick Adds:
  • Teams with strong rosters or upside (USC, Michigan, Florida, Ole Miss [if Trinidad Chambliss eligible])
  • G5 teams: Flat out, "Your best G5 teams aren't winning the title. I would have no G5 team in my bubble." [14:55]
• Internal Debate Teams:
  • Missouri, Tennessee, Penn State, Auburn—teams with talent but big question marks; “there’s a non-zero chance they do it.”
• Outside Looking In:
  • Washington, Iowa, BYU, ACC teams like Clemson, SMU, Louisville, Houston, South Carolina.
  • Josh admits as of February: “I’ve got 20 teams really preliminarily in my bubble.”
• Calculated Risk:
  • “It’s a calculated risk to leave Iowa outside of your bubble. Yeah, they’re probably not going to win the title, but here’s the thing about probably…” – Josh [16:05]

3. NFL Draft Perspective: College to Pro Lens

[20:38 - 30:24]

• Reader mailbag question on top draft talent:
  • Standout: Jeremiah Love (Notre Dame RB) – “I think Jeremiah Love...may be the best player in the draft. He’s going to be a franchise-altering player.” [22:15]
  • Caleb Downs (S, ex-Bama & Ohio State) – “At his floor, an All-Pro caliber safety in the league for a decade.” [24:24]
  • Wide receiver class is “insanely loaded”—names like Casey Concepcion, Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate, Denzel Boston highlighted.
  • Quarterback class lacks headliners, but Josh sees real potential for Day 2/3 QBs to develop quickly on the right teams.
• Perspective: Josh prefers watching college careers and speculating on translation to the NFL, not naming NFL team fits.

4. Lincoln Riley & USC: Remaining Hope Amid Doubt

[30:24 - 38:22]

• Question from Gadsden, AL: Is Lincoln Riley the right fit to win a title at USC?
• Josh’s nuanced take:
  • “There’s a non-small part of me that still believes in Lincoln Riley. Haven’t sold my stock.” [33:30]
  • Analogizes USC’s post-dominance era to Miami’s: Young fans may not remember their peak.
  • Admits USC started poorly:
    • “Basically committed a false start as a head coach. Did not staff well, especially defensively...the DNA of the program was beneath that of being championship caliber.” [34:20]
  • Riley now “properly course corrected” but results will require two seasons to show (“Brings us to 2026”).
  • This is Riley’s make-or-break year; USC must at least contend for the Big Ten and playoff.
  • Recognizes valid skepticism: “You don’t have to have an axe to grind...There’s a lot of legitimate, logic-based reason to doubt. I’m just not part of the doubter camp yet.” [36:48]
• Notable moment: “At the end, yes, I do still feel like Lincoln Riley can win a national championship. He would be in my bubble. Just because he hasn’t, doesn’t mean he can’t.” [38:10]

5. Preseason Top 10 Teams Ready to Crash?

[41:28 - 56:49]

• Mailbag question: Which current top 10 teams have “disaster” potential to finish unranked?
• Josh’s “Not a prediction, but hypothetical” candidates:
  • Notre Dame: “If my premise is they finished that lofty and they’re maybe a little better...What if they were only pretty good to end the year, but we didn’t know it?...Theoretically, that could happen.” [43:15]
  • Georgia: “Technically there’s a world where Georgia goes 8-4 this year and it shocks everybody. But then in retrospect…” [45:27]
  • Texas: Tough early schedule (Ohio State, Tennessee), plus “title or bust” pressure could create a mental unraveling with losses, similar to last year's Penn State collapse.
• Lesson: Even with a loaded roster and high expectations, everything must break right, especially in a year with brutal schedules.

6. Big Story No One’s Talking About: Oklahoma’s New Athletic Director

[56:49 - 65:00]

• Josh highlights the under-the-radar impact of off-field leadership:
  • Oklahoma replacing renowned AD Joe Castiglione with Roger Denny (ex-Illinois deputy AD).
  • “Most of you didn’t follow the Oklahoma athletic director search...The reason I say this is a big story is because...the skill set needed [for ADs] in 2026 is different than it was 10 years ago.” [58:25]
  • Josh lauds the hire: “I think Oklahoma killed it on the hire. ...A lot of other folks? This is a threat to the very existence of a lot of these people.” [60:48]
  • Explains why athletic director choices determine future program health, echoes the ongoing evolution in college football off the field.

7. Hardest Schedules in College Football 2026

[65:00 - 66:47]

• SEC & Big Ten Dominate:
  • Texas: “They play Ohio State on top of an SEC 9 game league schedule…could go into their bye week 2-2, 3-1 and bleeding.”
  • "Eight games in a row to finish, no more byes"—tough finishing stretch, highlighting Florida, Ole Miss, Mizzou, LSU and at Texas A&M.
  • Oklahoma: At Michigan (Week 2), at Georgia (Week 4), Texas (in Dallas), then five brutal games to end the year.
  • Ohio State: Road dates at Indiana, USC, Nebraska, Iowa, plus Oregon and Michigan at home. “It’s the most difficult Ohio State schedule I remember in several years.” [66:08]
  • Arkansas: Annual tradition of “brutal” scheduling; play at Utah, then Georgia; later a murderous string of conference games.
  • Northwestern: “Death march”—after South Dakota State opener and early bye, 11 straight weeks, including Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, and more. [68:55]

8. Texas Mood Tracker: ‘Championship or Bust’

[66:47 - 73:46]

• Texas fan base evaluated:
  • “The Texas mood, very simply, is championship or bust. Many, many fan bases say that and they shouldn’t. Texas fans can rightfully say that.” [67:14]
  • Program fully reflects Steve Sarkisian’s vision in year six.
  • “If they were to atone for last year with a title this year, no one cares about last year. That was just a step.” [68:49]
  • High-level recruiting and portal wins add pressure—expectations are not unreasonable.
  • Unique branding: Season ticket renewal slogan is “Nothing less than legendary.”
  • The cost of failure—Arch Manning era would be viewed as a “crazy,” historically disappointing narrative if Texas again misses the playoff.
  • “That’s the mood at Texas this year. My mood is I’m hungry so we need to wrap the show so we can go eat.” [73:14]

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote or Moment | |-----------|------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 07:18 | Josh Pate | “When I originally floated this concept to Jesse, it was death ... We need people suffering. At least emotionally.” | | 11:18 | Josh Pate | “These are teams … just based on roster talent alone. You cannot be excluding them.” | | 14:55 | Josh Pate | “Your best G5 teams aren’t winning the title. I would have no G5 team in my bubble.” | | 33:30 | Josh Pate | “There’s a non-small part of me that still believes in Lincoln Riley. Haven’t sold my stock on Lincoln Riley.” | | 36:48 | Josh Pate | “You don’t have to have an axe to grind against Lincoln Riley. There’s a lot of legitimate, logic-based reason to doubt. I’m just not part of the doubter camp yet.” | | 43:15 | Josh Pate | “What if I’m wrong about the caliber of [Notre Dame] when they finished the season? Theoretically my entire premise could be built on a lie.” | | 45:27 | Josh Pate | “Technically there’s a world where Georgia goes 8–4 this year and it shocks everybody.” | | 58:25 | Josh Pate | “The skill set needed to be an athletic director in 2026 is different than it was 10 years ago.” | | 60:48 | Josh Pate | “I think Oklahoma killed it on the hire ... This is a threat to the very existence of a lot of these people.” | | 66:08 | Josh Pate | “It’s the most difficult Ohio State schedule I remember in several years…that’s the kind of schedule that makes you start saying, ‘I could see a three-loss Ohio State…’” | | 67:14 | Josh Pate | “The Texas mood, very simply, is championship or bust … Texas fans can rightfully say that.” |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• College Football Survivor Bubble game introduced: [04:20]
• Analysis of “bubble” teams and risks: [11:00–16:50]
• NFL Draft class evaluation: [20:38–30:24]
• Lincoln Riley/USC discussion: [30:24–38:22]
• Preseason “disaster” team candidates: [41:28–56:49]
• Oklahoma AD hire & the future of leadership: [56:49–65:00]
• Hardest schedules in 2026: [65:00–66:47]
• Texas mood tracker: [66:47–73:46]

Conclusion

This densely packed episode serves as both a thought experiment for engaged fans and an act of fearless forecasting, with Josh Pate weaving humor and sharp critique throughout. He gives fans tangible games to structure offseason debates, challenges assumptions about perennial contenders, and raises important points off the field about the evolving landscape of college football administration. For Texas and its fans, there’s no room for merely good seasons—2026 is all-in, or bust.