Josh Pate’s College Football Show – Week 12 Reaction Show + Updated CFP Predictions & Major Announcement
Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)
Episode Overview
In this jam-packed Week 12 Reaction Show, Josh Pate dives deep into Saturday’s biggest college football games, playoff permutation chaos, key coaching rumors, and delivers a significant show announcement. The episode’s hallmark is Josh’s blend of data-driven analysis, insider whispers, and unvarnished reaction—eschewing hot takes for deeper context. He covers pivotal moments: Oklahoma's upset over Alabama, Georgia’s dominance of Texas, the Texas A&M-South Carolina roller coaster, the Lane Kiffin coaching saga, Penn State’s search, and a thorough review of the current College Football Playoff (CFP) outlook.
Major Topics & Analysis
1. Oklahoma Upsets Alabama in Tuscaloosa
(Starting ~03:00)
- Game Recap: Oklahoma defeats Alabama 23-21, flipping the script on Josh’s own confident ‘Bama pick.
- Josh’s Reasoning: He explains the rationale for favoring Alabama—yardage, first downs, and expected post-game win percentages (Alabama dominated most stat categories).
- Turnover Chaos: Oklahoma’s relentless, intentional effort to force turnovers (3 gained) becomes the difference-maker, despite Alabama’s statistical edge.
- Quote:
“Very few defenses play with the intent to force turnovers the likes of which Oklahoma played at yesterday. ...That is absolutely what a Brent Venables defense should be about.”
— Josh, (09:04) - Special Teams Shoutout: Oklahoma's field position, special teams play, and a key punt return furthered their advantage.
- Implications:
- Oklahoma now controls its CFP destiny with home games versus Missouri and LSU. Josh estimates if they win out, they’re functionally “in” the playoff (12:00).
- For Alabama, tightrope walking continues; marginal errors haunt their playoff hopes in a season where they lack a run game and explosive passing.
2. Georgia’s “She’s All That” Moment: Statement Win Over Texas
(26:46-40:00)
- Game Breakdown: Georgia crushes Texas 35-10 in Athens.
- Narrative: Josh likens Georgia’s journey to the "she's all that" movie plot—a flawed team peaking at the right time, suddenly turning heads as the postseason approaches.
- Key Stats & Culture Points:
- Penalties: Georgia 1-15 yards, Texas 9-58 yards.
- Three-game combined Texas rushing yards vs. Georgia: 83.
- Gunner Stockton: 24-29, 229 yards, 5 total TDs.
- Broken tackles: Georgia 10, Texas 2.
- Quote:
“It’s so great, man. You got a bunch of future millionaires on that team playing like they’re Toledo. It’s just amazing the mentality he gets them to play with.”
— (32:02) - Kirby Smart’s Approach:
“It’s the approach we take. We’re going to dominate and try to win the 4th quarter... You have to recruit physical players, and they have to buy into that process. ...If you have the check and no physicality, you end up with nothing. ...Our kids believe in... down and dirty.”
— Kirby Smart via press conference, played at (31:23) - Comparison with Texas: Georgia’s consistency and culture stand in contrast to Texas’s lack of defined identity under Steve Sarkisian, particularly in “referendum games.”
3. Texas A&M’s Historic Comeback Over South Carolina
(45:41–54:44)
- The Game: Texas A&M rallies from 30-3 down to beat South Carolina 31-30.
- "Pucker Meter": The comeback hit “10” on the show’s ‘pucker meter’—the tensest game situation of the year.
- Historic Note: Since 2004, SEC teams were 0-286 when trailing by 27+ points—now 1-286.
- Josh’s Recap:
“If you believe in snapshots and sound bites being what lasts in sports and politics, it's going to be a long time before we can shake the image of Shane Beamer triumphant fist in the air... only to come out and watch his team implode in on itself like a dying star. This was the Sarah McLaughlin special of week 12.”
— (49:35) - A&M Takeaways:
- Mike Elko extended as head coach amidst the chaos, which is “wonderful news.”
- Heisman Watch: Josh refuses to bail on Marcel Reed (+550 odds now, moving up despite the roller coaster result).
4. ND, USC, and the ACC Doomsday Avoided
Notre Dame & USC:
- ND beats Pitt 37-15 (“not a true test” per Josh), while USC impresses with a comeback over Iowa in the rain.
- Culture Shift Noted: Josh highlights Lincoln Riley’s emotional postgame, applauding USC’s physicality and effort to reinvent its reputation.
The ACC Race (61:26-63:00):
- Virginia hands Duke a decisive loss, putting the Cavaliers atop the ACC title race.
- Louisville stumbles; Georgia Tech and Miami remain in contention.
- Clemson’s “fight” is appreciated, even in a lost season:
"...there was this vibe ... that every game was a one-game season... you just played for the logo. ...I love that. That was Clemson."
— (62:47)
5. Lane Kiffin’s Decision: Stay at Ole Miss or Go?
(68:57-76:51)
- The Rumor Mill: Lane Kiffin is being courted by Florida, LSU, and potentially NFL teams.
- Josh’s Analysis:
- Lane has everything he needs at Ole Miss, but this is the first cycle he’s “truly being pursued.”
- Josh expects Ole Miss to press for an answer before the Egg Bowl, and if Lane declines, suggests they should move to Pete Golding as interim for the playoff.
- If Kiffin leaves, Ole Miss is still well-positioned—the job is stronger than 5 years ago.
- Quote:
“If you’ve been sincere about how you feel about Ole Miss, you need to not overthink the room and sign a contract extension. And let’s move on.”
— Josh (76:18)
6. Penn State and Arkansas Coaching Searches
(79:49-93:12)
- Penn State:
- James Franklin’s firing critiqued as lacking a definitive “upgrade.”
- The “grand slam” plan misses on Mike Elko. Prospective candidates view expectations as daunting: win 10+ games, rebuild recruiting, and satisfy boosters.
- Josh pitches Matt Campbell and Pat Fitzgerald as underappreciated fits.
- Arkansas:
- Job could be “a rocket ship” if big donors fully align.
- Complications with moneyed boosters wanting a say.
- Josh endorses USF’s Alex Golesh as a candidate with the edge, innovation, and league knowledge to thrive.
7. CFP Poll & Playoff Picture Update
(94:58–101:14)
- Key Rankings:
- Top 5: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss.
- James Madison highest among G5 at #21; debate whether G5 champ from the American or JMU will get a playoff spot.
- Brigham Young's security in top 12 if they lose the Big 12 title game is questioned.
- Texas drops seven spots following loss to Georgia.
- Attribution:
“I think Brigham Young, if they lose again convincingly in the Big 12 championship game and they're 11 and two, I'm serious. I think there's a world where the committee could bump them out.”
— Josh (98:50)
Updated Playoff Scenarios (101:14+)
- Current Picks/Predictions:
- Big Ten: Ohio State over Indiana.
- SEC: Alabama over Texas A&M.
- ACC: Georgia Tech over Virginia.
- Big 12: Texas Tech over Brigham Young.
- Seeding Implication:
- Top 4 projected as Ohio State, Indiana, Alabama, A&M.
- Remaining at-larges: Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Tulane.
- Predicts Oklahoma would host a first-round playoff game if they win out.
- Still picking Alabama over Ohio State in the title game despite Bama’s struggles.
8. Major Announcement: First-Ever Live Show
(43:06–45:31)
- Event Details:
- First full-stage, interactive live event: December 5 (Friday before SEC Championship), Buckhead Theater in Atlanta, 7pm.
- Tickets: available at patestatematerial.com
- No live feed or replay—exclusive to in-person attendees.
- Features: Surprise guests, exclusive merch, giveaways, plenty of stories:
“The only way you’re seeing this one is if you’re there in person. And the fun thing about that format is you can kind of say anything you want...”
— Josh (44:02)
Additional Segments
- Ramen Noodle Express: Betting update: Western Kentucky +22.5 at LSU, Kent State +7.5 vs. Central Michigan (108:49)
- Fan Interaction/Subscription Drive: Entertaining segment with a fan video about “subscribing the whole household”—pride in the Pate State community.
- G5 Playoff Watch: North Texas, James Madison, Tulane vying for G5 playoff slot; speculation on possible committee decisions.
Notable Quotes & Moments (w/ Timestamps)
-
On the random nature of turnovers:
“You want to know how randomized turnovers are? Minus three anyway.” (08:02)
-
On Georgia’s discipline and culture:
“I mean, it’s just— it’s like squeezing the sponge till it’s completely dry and then going back and saying, I think we can get one more drop out of it.” (32:28)
-
On the agony of South Carolina's collapse:
“Shane Beamer... triumphant fist in the air, going into the halftime locker room room, only to come out and watch his team implode in on itself like a dying star.” (49:35)
-
On coaching searches:
“Anyone who suggests... you’re easily going to upgrade from James Franklin is trying to fool themselves.” (81:58)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Oklahoma-Alabama Recap: 03:00 - 14:30
- Georgia-Texas Analysis: 26:46 - 40:10
- A&M-South Carolina Comeback: 45:41 - 54:44
- Notre Dame, USC, ACC Playoff Implications: 54:44 - 64:38
- Lane Kiffin/Ole Miss/Florida Rumors: 68:57 - 76:51
- Penn State/Arkansas Coaching Search: 79:49 - 93:12
- CFP Polls, Bracketology, Playoff Predictions: 94:58 - 101:14
- Major Announcement (Live Event): 43:06 - 45:31
- Ramen Noodle Express Betting Picks: 108:49
Episode Tone
- As always, Josh brings thoughtful analysis, a bit of good-natured needling (at both fans and himself), and a willingness to stand by predictions—even the ones that go sideways.
- The mood is a blend of urgent (given CFP chaos), celebratory (big games, big comebacks), and contemplative (about program identity, coaching paths, and playoff fairness).
- Direct, often humorous, self-aware (plenty of “I’m not as smart as the message board posters” quips).
Recap Summary
Whether you missed the live show or want a detailed breakdown of the country’s current college football lay of the land, this episode has it all: shrewd insight into game outcomes, playoff machinations, coaching intrigue, and a landmark announcement for the Pate State community—capstone college football coverage for fans demanding more than hot takes.