Josh Pate's College Football Show

Week 12 Upset Alerts + CFP Chaos Scenarios & Cole Cubelic Joins

Release Date: November 14, 2025
Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)
Guest: Cole Cubelic

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Week 12's possible upsets, College Football Playoff chaos scenarios, and the shifting landscape of college football’s playoff picture. Host Josh Pate provides insider intel, nuanced game previews, and “concern meter” rankings for potential upsets, before debating national title contenders and officiating reform with guest Cole Cubelic. The mailbag also features questions about LSU’s turnaround and dark horse championship teams.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: November Heat and Playoff Anxiety

• Josh opens from Nashville, highlighting the show's wide listenership and the channel's push to hit 500,000 YouTube subscribers.
• Sets the tone for a jam-packed show: “There's that moment when you've learned to swim, and therefore you can walk into the deep end... That's where we are right now” (01:55).

2. Week 12 Upset Alerts (05:36)

Josh introduces his “upset alert concern meter” (1-10) for select games:

• Michigan at Northwestern @ Wrigley Field

  • Michigan favored by 11.5; upset concern: 6/10
  • “It’s just the kind of game where you find out how much your team's been paying attention to the noise.” (06:35)

• South Carolina at Texas A&M

  • South Carolina at 3-6 needing to win out; upset concern: 2/10
  • “There would have to be a lot of help from Texas A&M for this to happen.” (07:20)

• NC State vs. Miami

  • Miami a 15.5 point favorite; upset concern: 5/10
  • “I’ve already seen Miami lose a couple of games as a double-digit favorite this year.” (09:15)

• Florida at Ole Miss

  • Florida’s motivation in doubt; upset concern: 3/10
  • “I would have a hard time seeing Ole Miss overlook this... They’re just the better team.” (11:37)

• Utah at Baylor

  • Utah aiming for at-large playoff bid; upset concern: 5/10
  • “The model actually loves Baylor. I don't. I don't see it.” (13:10)

• TCU at BYU

  • Implied to be even teams; upset concern: 8.5/10
  • “Can BYU throw the ball? If so, they can win convincingly… It's a very dangerous game.” (14:46)

3. Playoff Chaos Scenarios (20:04)

SEC Collapse Possibility

• Josh spotlights the pundit scramble over how many SEC teams could make the playoff.
• Offers a contrarian “contender collapse” scenario:
  • “It’s tough for me to envision A&M not making the playoff… but outside of that, there’s easily a path where Bama falls out, or Georgia falls out, or Texas falls out...” (22:35)

Big Ten Flood Conundrum

• Imagines a scenario where five Big Ten teams could be playoff contenders if certain outcomes (USC/Michigan/Oregon/Ohio State/Indiana) break right.
  • “If Michigan beats Ohio State... Michigan’s got the best win in the country at the very end of the year... All of a sudden, the Big Ten will have five playoff caliber teams.” (25:00)

ACC Doomsday Scenario

• Posits two G5 teams making the playoff, leaving the ACC shut out if, for instance, Duke wins the conference with 4 losses.
  • “Selection Sunday where a Power 4 conference is told, ‘You’re not in at all’…that is chaos.” (28:23, 31:28)

4. Mailbag Highlights

LSU’s Turnaround (37:31)

• Q: How fast could LSU bounce back under a new coach?
• Josh underscores the instability surrounding the LSU search and behind-the-scenes issues:
  • “The public spectacle of the lawsuit… it’s a turn off for prospective candidates. Guys, I'm not guessing on that stuff. I'm right on it.” (38:01)
  • Lane Kiffin is likely to be considered, but structural and alignment issues must be overcome.
• “This is LSU—when it's operating functionally, it is among the best, if not the best, jobs in college football.” (41:56)

Dark Horse National Champions (44:58)

• Josh analyzes true playoff threat depth if Ohio State appears vulnerable:
  • Up to nine teams have a real shot: “We got like 10 teams that could win the whole thing... That is crazy.” (45:52)
• Others, like USC and Miami, remain “just on the outside looking in.”

Officiating Reform Proposal (53:20)

• Josh lays out a commissioner-style plan:
  • Nationalize officiating—no conference-specific referees.
  • Transparency—make the crew chief available to media postgame.
  • Standardization—uniform rules and enforcement.
  • Meritocracy in hiring.
  • “It’s so stupid… It's the stupidest problem to have. It's so easily preventable.” (55:41)

5. Betting Picks & Best Bets (59:24)

• Ramen Noodle Express Picks:
  • Coastal Carolina +2.5
  • Alabama -5.5
  • UAB +18.5
  • Florida Atlantic +17.5 (at Tulane)
  • More selections to come on “Friday night lines.”

6. Interview with Cole Cubelic (61:40)

Playoff Title Contender Bubble

• Hypothetical: If Ohio State is vulnerable, who can really win it all?

• Both Josh and Cole construct their “championship bubbles” (minimizing risk of leaving out the eventual champ):

  Cole’s Bubble: Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, Notre Dame, Oklahoma

  • Notably leaves Texas, USC, Utah, Miami out due to inconsistency or reliance on vulnerable offensive schemes.
  • “The offense has been too inconsistent [for Texas]. I don't know if you can generate those explosives...” (68:48)

  Josh’s Bubble: Leaves out Oklahoma, Texas Tech; has Texas instead.

• Fun banter as they compare lists and discuss their justification for bubble inclusions.

Game Previews: Alabama vs Oklahoma (74:09)

• Josh predicts Alabama will win and cover (-5.5), citing passing attack strengths and defensive opportunism.
  • “I actually think they’re going to win the game by 10 or more.” (75:54)
• Cole disagrees it’ll be a big margin, emphasizes Alabama’s O-Line pass protection and Oklahoma’s defensive front.
  • “There are a lot of things that could be problematic for Alabama in this game…” (75:54)
• Discussion also touches on Oklahoma QB John Mateer’s unique release and the threat of batted passes.

Texas vs Georgia Preview (87:19)

• Both analyze program identity: Georgia is a known and hard-nosed commodity, Texas must prove they have developed comparable “grit and physicality.”

  • “Will Texas match the grit, the physicality? Are they hard enough to be able to go out and win this game? Ultimately, I think that's what it comes down to.” (89:17)

  • Cole gives Georgia the edge due to program consistency and pressure scheme precision.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh Pate sets the tone:
  “There's that moment when you've learned to swim… That’s where we are right now.” – [01:55]

• On the SEC contender collapse:
  “Wouldn’t be great for business in some corners, but it certainly could [happen].” – [22:35]

• On Big Ten chaos:
  “At the very least, there’s a 10-2 Michigan sitting there… The Big Ten will all of a sudden have five playoff caliber teams.” – [25:00]

• On the officiating fix:
  “It is the dumbest thing in the world to me that we have conference officials… It should be a college football crew.” – [54:14]

• Cole Cubelic on Texas’ inconsistency:
  “The offense has been too inconsistent. I don’t know if you’re going to be able to generate these explosives…” – [68:48]

• On Georgia’s defensive approach:
  “There is less selfishness and more precision with the way Georgia runs their pressures than almost any other team in college football.” – Cole Cubelic [93:48]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Episode Kickoff & Theme: 01:55
• Week 12 Upset Alerts: 05:36 – 15:55
• Playoff Chaos Scenarios (SEC, Big Ten, ACC): 20:04 – 31:28
• LSU Coaching Q&A: 37:31
• Dark Horse Champion Discussion: 44:58
• Officiating Reform: 53:20
• Best Bets (Ramen Noodle Express): 59:24
• Cole Cubelic Segment Begins: 61:40
• Championship Bubble Debate: 65:09 – 71:32
• Alabama vs Oklahoma: 74:09 – 84:47
• Texas vs Georgia: 87:19 – 89:17
• Georgia Pass Rush Discussion: 93:48
• Show Closing Thoughts: 98:27 – end

Summary Takeaways

• This episode is a must-listen for college football fans tracking playoff drama, late-season upsets, and future program direction. Josh Pate’s analytical approach, measured tone, and willingness to zag from mainstream narratives keeps things substantive and highly engaging. Cole Cubelic's film study and tactical insights add depth, especially on playoff team profiles and marquee matchups.

No low-hanging fruit, no hot takes—just essential college football information, delivered with energy and clarity.