Josh Pate's College Football Show

Week 13 Prediction Show + Lane Kiffin Latest & CFP Expansion Coming?
Date: November 19, 2025
Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)

Episode Overview

Josh Pate dives deep into the chaos surrounding college football in Week 13 of 2025, focusing on major topics such as proposed College Football Playoff (CFP) expansion, the Lane Kiffin coaching saga, pivotal game predictions, and burning questions about coaches under pressure. With trademark candor, humor, and intelligence, Pate delivers behind-the-scenes insights and sharp commentary from his post in Nashville.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Expansion (24 Team Talk)

• Segment Start: [05:14]
• Pate opens with a passionate critique of reports that conference commissioners are considering expanding the playoff yet again—this time to 24 teams.
• Notable Source: Ross Dellinger (Yahoo Sports) reporting on a Big Ten proposal for a 24-team playoff.
• Pate’s Stance: Strongly opposes further expansion, labeling the idea “pathetic” and “terrible.”
  • He describes the expansion mentality as driven by money, not genuine fan interests:
    “These people don’t care about fans, they don’t care about students. They’re using it as a convenient argument... Let’s just increase the size of that thing. That ATM has been printing out money for us. Maybe it’ll print out more money for us.” [10:38]
• He argues the focus should be on fixing the college football calendar (recruiting schedules, portal windows) rather than playoff size.
• Memorable Rant:
  “You gotta chase these people out of the room. Like actual leaders, people who care about the best interest of college football is what you got to do.” [12:36]
• Pate is cautiously optimistic about the current 12-team playoff format, expressing relief that regular season urgency remains mostly intact.

2. Game Predictions: USC vs. Oregon

• Segment Start: [22:08]
• Game Context: USC at Oregon, huge Pac-12 showdown (Saturday, 3:30 ET).
• Pate evaluates Oregon’s dominance—particularly its rushing attack—versus USC’s shaky run defense.
• He questions whether Oregon’s top-ranked pass defense is genuine, citing past matchups against weak passing teams.
  “Do we believe it? Papers lie sometimes. Even in November.” [23:45]
• Explains that while Oregon is favored (models have spread ~8-10 points), USC's dynamic receivers could be X-factors.
• Health Watch: Updates on Oregon’s receiving corps, specifically curiosity about Evan Stewart’s availability.
• Prediction:
  “I think Oregon’s best game is still ahead of them...I’ll take Oregon to cover.” [30:40]

3. Coaching Carousel: Lane Kiffin Watch

• Segment Start: [36:30]
• The Lane Kiffin saga captivates college football: rumors swirl about him, his family, and potential moves to Florida, LSU, or staying at Ole Miss.
• Pate recounts the spectacle—flight tracking, message board rumors, and Lane’s playful media appearances (like claiming he did hot yoga with Ole Miss AD that morning).
• Behind-the-Scenes Reality:
  “I just don’t think a decision’s been arrived at yet. But I think one is rapidly approaching and I think a lot of due diligence has been done.” [40:49]
• Warns against overreacting to “window intel” (secondhand local rumors) and cautions fans not to read too much into real estate visits or message board reports.
• Looking Forward: Pate predicts an answer will come early next week, with possible chaos if it stretches to Egg Bowl week.

4. Coach Under Fire: Kalen DeBoer at Alabama

• Segment Start: [45:31]
• Responding to a listener question about whether Alabama fans soured too quickly on new coach Kalen DeBoer after a loss to FSU.
• Pate flips the script, challenging what realistic expectations for Alabama are, and who should be “the standard” in modern college football.
• Classic Pateism:
  “You have to move at the speed of honey, not the speed of water on this stuff... One of the great meemaw isms in the history of judgment.” [47:55]
• Uses historical perspective (Jim Harbaugh at Michigan) to encourage patience and thoughtful evaluation, not snap judgments after losses.

5. Missouri vs. Oklahoma: “No One’s Talking About This Game”

• Segment Start: [54:51]
• Pate highlights this as an under-the-radar, but potentially crucial, matchup.
• Discusses strengths and vulnerabilities of both teams: Missouri’s top rushing offense/defense vs. Oklahoma’s run D.
• Notes backup QB situations, field position, and turnovers as potential deciders.
• Prediction:
  “If this line’s seven and a half right now, I would just bet the Dog... But in terms of who’s going to win the game, Missouri’s got a good shot because I’m not going to be there. Missouri can’t win a game if I’m in attendance. But since I’m not going to be there, Eli Drinkwitz and his team have a fighting chance. I think it’s a low scoring game. I think Oklahoma finds a way to win the game though, right there in the playoff mix.” [58:14]

6. Steve Sarkisian & Texas: Measuring Disappointment & Public Messaging

• Segment Start: [61:42]
• Plays Sark’s press conference answering if Texas has “underachieved” after three losses despite preseason #1.
  • Sark’s defense points to a brutal schedule and “competing their tail off.”
  • “By the end of the season we’ll play...five of those teams will be top 10 teams when we played them... last team to do that was LSU with Joe Burrow.” ([61:55], Steve Sarkisian)
• Pate interprets this as playoff committee lobbying, not genuine self-assessment:
  “What I thought about the latest rant was...not a rant that accurately reflected his feelings towards his current results, as much as hoping to lobby for a backdoor spot into the playoff if they’re able to take care of business.” [70:07]
• Breaks down the difficulty and nuance of coaching decisions, defending against hasty calls for staff firings.

7. JP Poll Power Ratings (Week 13 Update)

• Segment Start: [70:58]
• Explains that JP Poll is about neutral field favorability, not rankings or resumes.
• Notable top fives:
  1. Ohio State
  2. Georgia
  3. Indiana
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Alabama
• “Georgia would now be a 2.3-point favorite over A&M and a 2.8-point favorite over Bama...The model would have Georgia minus three against Alabama in Atlanta.” [77:43]
• Emphasizes the difference between betting lines and model favorability, and why win/loss results don’t automatically mean a team would be favored on neutral field.
• Fun notes about FanDuel look-ahead lines (Rivalry Week, Iron Bowl).

8. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On CFP Expansion:
  “If expanding to 24 teams sounds pathetic, it is... of the problems facing college football right now, none of them have to do with expanding the playoff.” ([06:10-10:38])

• On Leadership in CFB:
  “We’ve got kids with their hands on the wheel because the more talentless you are, the easier it is to snake your way up that bureaucratic ladder.” [12:36]

• On Kiffin Rumors:
  “We had Lane Kiffin’s family in Baton Rouge and we had them spotted in Gainesville the day before that. Checking out what? I don’t know, checking out ice cream shops. Could have been checking out schools, could have been checking out property.” [36:36]

• On Coaching Evaluation:
  “You have to move at the speed of honey, not the speed of water on this stuff.” [47:55]

• On Sark and Texas:
  “You saw what it’s supposed to look like last Saturday. Georgia is what it’s supposed to be like, and Texas is not Georgia. We’ve pretty emphatically decided that in the last calendar year.” [66:07]

Timestamps: Major Segments

• [05:14] — CFP Expansion: Big Ten’s 24-Team Proposal
• [22:08] — USC vs. Oregon Preview, Health Updates, & Prediction
• [36:30] — Lane Kiffin Saga and Coaching Carousel
• [45:31] — Alabama/Kalen DeBoer “Stock” and Patience with Coaches
• [54:51] — Missouri vs. Oklahoma: Keys, Concerns, and Picks
• [61:42] — Steve Sarkisian on Texas “Underachieving”
• [70:58] — JP Poll Week 13: Top 20 Power Ratings

Summary Takeaways

• Pate asserts that playoff expansion is a money grab, with fans’ interests poorly served.
• Lane Kiffin’s future is still very much in flux, with intense speculation and zero clear answers—Pate encourages skepticism over rumor-mongering.
• In depth previews highlight real on-field tactical matchups—dueling strengths and weaknesses between ranked teams.
• Listeners are encouraged, as always, to keep perspective, judge coaches and teams over time, and remember that CFB “moves at the speed of honey.”
• Pate remains critical yet optimistic about current playoff structure, pushes for real administrative reform, and delivers a wealth of usable, actionable info for diehard fans.

In Pate’s Words (Most Memorable Quote)

“My problem is that... none of these people are focused on the actual issue at hand here. Of the problems facing college football right now, none of them have to do with expanding the playoff... [it’s] utterly insane. College football is a multi billion dollar industry, and we’ve got kids with their hands on the wheel.” ([10:38])

This episode is a can’t-miss for anyone invested in the future of college football, the culture of coaching, and the outcomes of a pivotal November weekend.