← Josh Pate's College Football Show
Josh Pate's College Football Show
Week 13 Prediction Show + Lane Kiffin Latest & CFP Expansion Coming?
01:13:05
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- [00:00]
Lowe's Advertiser
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
- [00:04]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [00:08]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [00:11]
Matt Rogers
Hey Bowen, it's gift season.
- [00:13]
Josh Pate
Ugh.
- [00:13]
Bowen Yang
Stressing me out. Why are the people I love so hard to shop for?
- [00:17]
Matt Rogers
Probably because they only make boring gift guides that are totally uninspired. Except for the guide we made in.
- [00:23]
Bowen Yang
Partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts meet incredible value.
- [00:27]
Matt Rogers
It's giving gifts with categories like Best Gifts for the mom whose idea of sensible walking shoe is a stiletto or.
- [00:35]
Bowen Yang
Best Gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have Check out.
- [00:39]
Matt Rogers
The guide on marshalls.com and gift the.
- [00:41]
Bowen Yang
Good stuff at Marshalls.
- [00:44]
Josh Pate
So let me get this straight. Your company has data here, there and everywhere, but your AI can't use the data because it's here, there and everywhere? Seems like something's missing.
- [00:57]
Bowen Yang
Every business has unique data.
- [00:59]
Josh Pate
IBM helps your AI access your data wherever it lives. To change how you do business, let's create Smile to Business IBM.
- [01:12]
Lowe's Advertiser
Stay cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops because honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is going to give you two free select tools from dewalt, Craftsman or Cobalt when you buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus rewards members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in. Shop new December deal drops on lowe's.com every week this month. Fresh deals, cozy vibes. 0eff.
- [02:18]
Josh Pate
Let me just give you an idea of how insane college football is right now. Eleven months ago, James Franklin was coaching in the semifinal of the College Football Playoff. He took the Virginia Tech job last night. And it's not even the lead topic on the show. Nor is it the second topic. Nor is it the third topic. Now, in fairness, we have done a reaction video already. So if you're tuning in to hear the take on James Franklin, it's already on the channel. But I still look, I still think it stands to reason that's how many live bullets are flying in the college football air right now. We're jam packed. We're high atop a scatterbrained downtown Nashville, Tennessee on this Tuesday night, November 18th, the year of our Lord 2025. We got week 13 predictions on the show. Yeah, football still being played. In case you know, anyone forgot, we do have big games coming up this weekend, but just total and utter insanity on the coaching search front. So I'm going to have another update on Lane Kiffin in the show. We're not going to do the whole Penn State, Auburn, lsu, Florida. I'm not doing that because there hasn't been enough movement on those various fronts. I mean, there's movement, but not enough to talk about publicly. But the Lane Kiffin stuff, yeah, I got to talk about it. Some of you are out there living your lives and you're not living on message boards. And quite frankly, shame on you. What better do you have to do with your time this time of year than to live on the message board? So I've got that. I got a new JP poll in the show tonight. I've got somebody that's ready to check out on Kalen DeBoer again. A bunch of folks are ready to check out on Sark. So this show could go like four hours tonight, but we can't. We're doing the show early live so that we can then get off the air, go watch the playoff rankings get revealed, and then hop right back in the studio to do another reaction video. So if you're watching live, I'll give you a playoff reaction video later tonight. If you're listening to the replay of the show, what, Wednesday morning, you're probably going to have to find the playoff reactions separately. They're watching us in Augusta, Georgia, Portland, Oregon, Danville, Virginia. Is that Holland? Yes, that's Holland, Michigan. I appreciate you guys so much. It's never been more important in the history of civilization than now for you to make sure you're subscribed to the channel, the YouTube channel, podcast, whatever, but especially the YouTube channel. We are closing and we're dangerously close to 500,000 subs. And when we get there, it's a whole new frontier. It's like a whole new world, really. Nothing will change, but we will feel good about ourselves. Okay, so many, many, many of you have been hitting me up saying you're talking to me. You've been talking to me this whole time when you've been telling people, check and make sure you're subscribed because I checked and it turns out I wasn't subscribed. That describes many of you. So I know you think you're subbed and I appreciate you watching. I'm just asking you to also click subscribe as you watch. It doesn't change the experience for you. It doesn't cost you a dime. It doesn't sign you up for anything. You don't get these annoying alerts. None of the usual downsides to subscribing happen. It just helps us and that's it. Alright, let's dive into the show tonight.
- [05:15]
I didn't think I was going to leave the show with what I'm about to talk about because we got a lot to get into. But I've got to address this. Someone has got to address this. Bradley, here's a good endpoint for you. When you cut the video later. We got coaching searches going on, we got big games this weekend. But as the future commissioner of this sport, I can't pretend I haven't seen this report from Ross Dellinger. So go ahead and put it up on the screen, Bradley. Ross Dellinger of Yahoo. Sports, good friend of the program, Ross Dellinger. I mean we could call him and put him on speakerphone right now and I could just yell at him. But it's not his fault. He's just reporting what's happening. Quote In a meeting Today in Charlotte, North Carolina Power Conference Commissioners saw a presentation from the Big Ten on a 24 team playoff format. Sources tell Yahoo. Sports he continues officials agreed to keep further exploring formats beyond 12. SEC officials, as they have said publicly, support 16.
- [06:11]
Not even a soft clap, not a golf clap, just an outright clap. I want to throw up all over the place right now, but I can't because we've got a show to do. But I do have great news for you out there. Your college football leaders are focused on the big issues. Focused on the big issues, ladies and gentlemen, because this really is the pressing matter at the college football table right now, expanding the playoff again. So as you know, for quite a while we have talked about playoff expansion in college football. And as you know, for quite a while I've really never been on board with playoff expansion. But I did say last cycle, hey, I'm giving that up. I've already spoken my piece on this. It's obvious the playoffs gonna expand and we expanded. Not to 6, not to 8. We expanded to 12 then. So I had some concerns about what it would do to the regular season, blah blah blah. And I'm going to be honest with you, I had it out on this show with a lot of you, a lot of you, a lot of loyal viewers, a lot of Pate State current students and alumni said nope, I want playoff expansion. And I said, hey, we can agree to a disagree, but I hope you are right about what you say it will and won't do to impact the regular season. All right, well now we're in the 12 team playoff era and I've got to say I am pleasantly surprised at how similar I feel in the regular season compared to how I used to feel. I'm speaking cautiously because, you know, there's a. Yeah, but coming after this. So just be ready. So far we're two seasons into this thing. I've watched several games this year. I was watching Texas, Georgia last week. I was watching before that game, the 3:30 game. What was it? Oh, it was Oklahoma, Alabama. I was watching that game. There is the same urgency, the same nervousness, the same sweaty palms that I used to feel about these games. Now there's a little bit more of a safety net baked under it. But my point is my biggest fear has not been realized. My biggest fear was that we were going to build this safety net of the expanded playoff under these games and teams were going to know they can lose and still make the playoff. And therefore in the aggregate, we were going to watch the games and they weren't going to feel as big. Now, of course they don't feel quite as big. But like college football, regular season games used to be the biggest thing on the face of the earth. So like shaving 5% of the urgency off a college football game still makes a big regular season college football game the greatest thing we have in American sports. My point in saying all this is we're in a good spot right now. Someone asked me earlier today when I retweeted this and I said if this sounds pathetic, it is. If expanding to 24 teams sounds pathetic, it is. And they said, well, what's your ideal format? And I said, well, we can't go back in time, you know, because once the genie's out of the bottle, the genie's out of the bottle. Like people may think someone like me would say I want to go back to the 14 BCS era or the two team BCS era. No, no, we can't do that. We could never do that. Like if I were in charge, if I were college football commissioner or if I were just a full on college football dictator, I would not take us back there. Because you've already seen what expanded playoff world is like and so you can't undo that. If we had never gone down this road, I wouldn't advocate to go down the road. But since we've already gone down the road, I'm not stupid. I know we can't go backwards. Notice I didn't say regress because that would not be the same thing. But we are not going to Go backwards. So we're okay right now is my point. We're not perfectly fine right now. 12 teams is perfectly fine, which is why it makes all the sense in the world that the leeches who masquerade as leaders of this sport want to blow it all up. The good news is it sounds like there's no shot of this 2014 playoff actually taking off. Like every other idea that's recently come out of the Big Ten, it sucks water through a garden hose. It's terrible. I don't know, like, who in the world has made it their life's mission to take the Big Ten and college football, you know, as the little poster that's waving behind the plane and just nose dive it into the earth? I don't know who's done that, but someone, multiple someones in the Big Ten have done that. So it doesn't sound like this is a big risk. But the fact that this mentality even exists, it's got to be called out. You've got to call these people out. So we're in a pretty good spot with the playoff right now. Therefore, of course, you want to blow it up.
- [10:39]
My problem is that, number one, the idea sucks. My number two problem is none of these people are focused on the actual issue at hand here. Of the problems, of the problems facing college football right now, none of them have to do with expanding the playoff. Think about this. If you were a fan of expanding the playoffs, like if you argued with me in the past, if I wanted to stay at 4, you wanted to go to 12. Those of you who wanted expansion got your way, even you guys don't want a 2014 playoff. Even the canals of the world, even the expansionists don't want to do this. So you'll notice, like one of my. One of my cautions in the previous round of expansion was these people are saying they're expanding the playoff because fans want it and they're really not caring what you think at all. These people don't care about fans, they don't care about students. They don't care about anything like that. They're using it as a convenient argument. Like they're using it as a convenient guise. Because what they don't want to say is we figured out that the College Football Playoff is an ATM and the bigger we make it, the more money it will spit out for us. That's not a really popular talking point. So instead, what we want to do is we want to still do everything we're going to do. Let's still expand it let's still deepen our pockets as much as we possibly can off of the playoff. But let's say we're expanding it because the fans want it. Because a majority of fans did want playoff expansion. You'll notice, suspicious in its absence this go around is that same sentiment because they know it's not popular. You see, all of a sudden you realize they were lying to you the whole time. They never cared what you thought. It was convenient that your desire matched theirs, but. But you had totally different motivations. Fans who wanted to expand the playoff just wanted to expand it because you thought that was what was best for college football. And that was just a matter of opinion. Doesn't matter if I agreed with it or not. That was just your opinion. We both wanted the same thing. We both love college football. You just wanted to see what was best for it. They couldn't care less about that. But since you were making your argument or their argument for them, they went along with it. Now, no one wants this. So you will not hear the word fan mentioned very much when it comes to any kind of idea to expand the playoff to 24. You'll just kind of get reports about it from Ross Dellinger. They don't even want it publicized. They don't even want it like socialized or circulated out there. These people are completely talentless. There was another headline today. College football games headed to Brazil, for example, like the Venn diagram of people who want to expand the playoff to 24. And the people who think it's a good idea to play college football games in Germany or Rome. Believe me, that headline's coming. Get ready for it. Or Brazil is a perfect circle. Those are just the same people. They're talentless. They've never built anything in their lives. If you ask these people, hey, what makes college football great? The first words out of their mouths would be acronyms. P and L KPI. That's how they think. They're just calculator heads. That's how they think. And they have found the latest hot thing, which in this case is college football. And they've leeched themselves onto it. And they'll suck it dry and then they'll move on. That's what locusts do. That's what insects do. Really figuratively. That's what these people are. You've got to chase these people out of the room. That's what you have to do. Like actual leaders, people who care about the best interest of college football is what you got to do. The biggest problem facing the sport right now Is not the size of the College Football Playoff. The biggest problem by 100 miles facing college football right now is how insane the calendar is right now. We have coaching searches going on all over the place. I got coaches stepping to the podium on a Tuesday of game week, and all they're getting asked about is, well, your name's up for this job. Do you have any comment? And I've got athletic directors under fire. I've got coaches under fire. I got agents feeling the heat. And the people responsible for the mess are busy over here trying to expand the playoff to 24 teams. It's utterly insane. College football is a multi billion dollar industry, and we've got kids with their hands on the wheel because the more talentless you are, the easier it is to snake your way up that bureaucratic ladder. People who actually have talent, you know, people who actually can build things, they're not in the administrative state of college football. Therefore, they're not in positions to hold these jobs. And so the people who hold the jobs and the people who actually end up making these kind of calls are the least equipped and qualified to be running anything. I wouldn't trust these people to run a lemonade stand. If these people mowed my lawn, I would close the blinds. I wouldn't trust them to do anything. And yet here they are. They've completely wrecked the college football calendar. Like right now, the conversation should not be, we're going to expand the playoff to 24. Your conversation should be, hey, how do we get the national signing day move to February instead of early December and the portal window to post college football playoff and rework the academic calendar where we can make it all happen so that we don't have coaching searches overlapping with the stretch run of the regular season. Because guys have to get in a new position to salvage a recruiting class before the portal opens. That's what the conversation should be. Instead, the conversation is, we have some money, we'd like more money. We have no talent. We can't build anything ourselves. This thing over here exists. It's called the College Football Playoff. Let's just increase the size of that thing. That ATM has been printing out money for us. Maybe it'll print out more money for us. Let's, let's, hey, Brazil will pay us $20 million. Let's just go take Tulane in Memphis and have them play down there. Those are the kinds of ideas these people have. So these people really have no business making decisions. But yet here they are, and here we are.
- [16:27]
Kwik Trip could never find themselves in such a position. Kwik Trip fuels the fall Don't Lie Tour Quick Trip has been with us for quite a while now. We appreciate they fuel us every step of the way. I would say it's safe to say at this point they've been giving away a ton of free gas this year. I should have kept account on how much gas we've given away, how many free tanks of gas we've given away. We're going to head all the way to Eugene, Oregon. Saturday, USC at Oregon now last Sunday, I thought it was going to be rainy during this game, like 48 hours ago. The forecast has changed. There is growing confidence at the University of Oregon that this will be a dry game. I'm still in wait and see mode because I was fully prepared to ride with Dan Lanning and wear cotton just in a show of solidarity for them welcoming us onto the campus up there. And I was going to freeze and probably catch pneumonia. But you know, now that it looks like it's going to be overcast and 55 degrees, I don't know, maybe just the long sleeve version of the Fall Don't Lie tournament Eugene edition, available in the Pate State store right now. Patestatematerial.com There's a picture of it right there. We just put a little random Fall Don't Lie mug on there as well. That's available year round. The Eugene version of our T shirt. That's available for one week also. And this pertains to like 0.1% of the audience. I did confirm right before we came on air. I will be speaking at the University of Oregon this Friday, friends, at the Warsaw center over there. You know who you are. I'll see you guys in Girls Friday. We're gonna run it back like we did last year.
- [18:02]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Los Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [18:06]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [18:09]
Matt Rogers
Hey, Bowen. It's gift season.
- [18:11]
Bowen Yang
Ugh, stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me? Exactly, honey.
- [18:17]
Matt Rogers
I'm easy. But you're right, holiday gifting is stressful.
- [18:20]
Bowen Yang
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
- [18:23]
Matt Rogers
Wait, what about the guide we made.
- [18:24]
Bowen Yang
In partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts mean incredible value?
- [18:28]
Matt Rogers
It's giving Gifts, a series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
- [18:34]
Bowen Yang
Yeah, because if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out, right?
- [18:38]
Matt Rogers
How about something for the people who.
- [18:40]
Bowen Yang
Actually surprise you with categories like Best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto. Psst. She wants a pair of stilettos.
- [18:48]
Matt Rogers
Or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have dying.
- [18:52]
Bowen Yang
To see what those are.
- [18:53]
Matt Rogers
And you won't believe.
- [18:55]
Bowen Yang
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
- [18:59]
Matt Rogers
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
- [19:01]
Bowen Yang
Honestly, this is the guy for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
- [19:06]
Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's.
- [19:08]
Bowen Yang
Giving gifts Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
- [19:12]
Josh Pate
Hello. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast smart talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna and I asked him how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
- [19:28]
Arvind Krishna
My one advice to them Pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah, so we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
- [20:19]
Josh Pate
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.
- [20:29]
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- [21:31]
Lowe's Advertiser
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- [22:09]
Josh Pate
Speaking of that game. So let's dive into it. Big game on tap. Pac12 pate back for one night only to introduce you to the idea that USC and Oregon is a huge game this Saturday 3:30 Eastern 12:30 local kick on CBS. You know what that means? That means the Fall Don't Lie Tour and Jennifer Dell on the same sideline. Some said it wouldn't happen again this season, but I held out hope. And here we are. Lincoln Riley at USC 0 and 4 versus top 10 teams. Lincoln Riley at USC 1 and 7 versus ranked teams on the road. Now that speaks to the past. But if you've been watching USC this year like I have, it's fair to say it looks like they've started to turn a corner a little bit. So you know, what has been doesn't always continue to be. That's got to be the theme if you're picking USC in this game. Oregon.
- [23:06]
At 10 and 2, if they were to drop this game I don't think is a lock to make the playoff. I could play around with the all state playoff predictor here and maybe it would say they have a better than 5050 shot. But bottom line is their fate's not totally in their hands if they lose this game. USC's only shot to make the playoff is winning out. And that would include obviously winning this game. Big culture game. I don't so much say that for Oregon. Like Oregon's pretty comfortable in who they are. They're comfortable being uncomfortable. Usc, we're kind of trying to still figure out are they, you know, fill in the blank, are they A team that can be physical can go on the road, win this kind of game. We'll see how far USC has come because that's really my biggest question. Like Notre Dame earlier this year ran for 306 yards on them. Illinois Game we were at in champagne ran for 171 on them. Oregon's average in 230 on the ground. And honestly, the last few games, like if you just look last month of the season, Oregon's probably averaged even more than that on the ground. So USC's got the 63rd run defense in the country right now. Just basic stats. But the reason I'm mentioning that is because you want to make. You want to make me zoom in a little bit further than that if I'm trying to figure out how this game's going to go. Because I had to zoom in to about 30,000ft to see those stats. And if there's nothing more to this game than that, I don't need to zoom in any further. Like there. It really gets academic if you can't stop the run against Oregon. They'll throw it every now and then just for fun. But it really is academic if they're ripping off six, seven yards per carry. Yeah, they can throw it, but doesn't really matter. You've got to at least insert variance into the equation. Now the thing is, sometimes you've got these ground and pound teams and you say we got to make them throw it to beat us. The Oregon can beat you throwing the ball. But at least if you make them throw the ball, some crazy stuff could happen. Or maybe they're throwing the ball because you found a way to score on them. So that brings me to point number two. How would USC get in a position to make Oregon trade points? You instead of playing from behind. How do we do that? Well, you got to make this paper right here. It's two pieces here. Hold on a second. There we go. That's one piece of paper. Sounds flimsy, doesn't it? You got to make this paper lie. So this piece of paper I'm holding right here says Oregon's got the best pass defense in the country. Do we believe it? Papers lie sometimes. Even in November, five of the seven Power 4 offenses Oregon has faced are 100th or worse in pass offense. So there is a world where Oregon is just that good. There's another world where they're badly overly inflated in past these statistics because of the inferior nature of the passing attacks they faced. We saw a glaring example of this in theme last week. Remember last week I sat right here in this chair. We had Pitt versus Notre Dame. Well, Notre Dame versus Pittsburgh, say the home team last kids. We had Notre Dame versus Pitt coming up. And what did this piece of paper say? It said Pitt's got the number three run defense in the country. And what did I say? I think Notre Dame's going to run all over him because I thought the paper was lying. And it was. You saw what Jeremiah Love did. That's illegal in, like, 17 states. Pennsylvania not being one of them, apparently. So it doesn't really matter if the paper coming into the game said you got the number 1 pass D in the country. If Lemon and Lane just go off on you like, does it mean. Does it mean any less? Does it mean any more? No, it just meant what it meant. It's college football. It's not the NFL. You don't play a pro team every week where by week 12, week 13, week 14, you kind of are what your record says you are. You kind of are what your stat sheet says you are. It's college football. Crazy stuff happens from week one all the way to the end of the year because of how imbalanced things can be. 37 days ago, what were you doing? I was watching Indiana sort of own Oregon in Austin Stadium. It was a shock to the senses. We all remember it. It hadn't been that long ago, I would imagine. Maybe even at Oregon, they remember it. I bring that game up. Not to drudge up bad memories for our Oregon viewers and fans. I mentioned that because 37 days ago, we had Mr. Surratt and Mr. Cooper there, wide receiver one, wide receiver two for Indiana, go off for 15 catches, 179 yards and a touchdown. And I think this pair of receivers USC's carrying up there with them are probably better, all due respect, than the dudes Indiana brought out there. And Oregon needed a defensive score to even keep that thing to within 10. So don't think for a second this couldn't happen. Now do I think Oregon's improved. I actually think they could rev the engine right now and be one of the best teams in the country if they're healthy. More on that in a second. But there's just. I'm saying, like, you. You think about this thing, you look at the line, it's moved all the way to nine and a half. I saw ten and a half earlier today, and you're thinking to yourself, oh, man, tough to see a way for usc. No, it's not. No, it's not. It's just maybe a few more routes for Oregon. The thinking, I think, on the games inverted a little bit. So I think the. The casual thinking on the game would be, oh, you got to find out if USC can sort of Big Ten their way to a Win.
- [28:39]
That is not what I would want to do if I were Oregon. If I were Oregon, I'd actually be begging them to play Big Ten style of football. I'd actually beg usc, hey, see if you can keep running that ball like you did against Michigan, you know, like you did against Nebraska. Because I'm comfortable. That's in my wheelhouse. And who knows, maybe I'll hold their passing game in check. But if they're going to beat me, it's going to be with those two receivers. It's going to be that they really, really dominated in the red zone. Like that's how they would beat me. Oregon's wide receiver health is something I'm paying attention to in this game because I have, I have been of the suspicion that they may be building towards having, you know, a few more, a few more healthy hands on deck towards the end of the year. Evan Stewart, we hadn't seen him. I'm not, I have no clue about Evan Stewart's availability Saturday. I wouldn't say so. If I did, that would be unethical. What I will say is they've never thought they're going to lose him for the whole season. Like that hasn't been the word from up there. So if Evan Stewart has known for a while, if that staff has known for a while, we're going to get him back. This is the game you probably would have circled.
- [29:48]
Arvind Krishna
Now.
- [29:48]
Josh Pate
I don't know if he'll be able to get back, but that's just something to keep an eye on. Kenyan Sadiq, I mean he was like a game time decision last week. He plays, he dominates. So I think he may be the best tight end in the country right now. I watched USC go on the road to Illinois and get handled. I watched him go to Nebraska. I firmly believe they would have lost the game had Dylan Raiola not gone down with injury. I watched him go to Notre Dame competitive, but they ended up losing by 10.
- [30:16]
So they've got to do something that flips the script on the road in relation to what Lincoln Riley, USC teams have been. And as we look at what the model thinks, FanDuel's got Oregon minus nine and a half. The models got Oregon minus eight. This thing opened at seven and a half. It's gone to nine and a half. So it crossed right over what the model's number was. I think Oregon's best game is still ahead of them.
- [30:40]
Now I'm going to roll the dice a little bit and I'm going to say it happened Saturday. So I Mean, look, I just laid it out for you. So there. There. There are routes here where I see usc, I see I could see USC winning the game. What do I think's more likely? That's really what the pick's all about. I think it's probably more likely Oregon wins the game. And if Oregon wins the game in the style that I believe they will, there's a chance that they bend it at the end. I don't think blowout. I just think, you know, win the second half 17 to 7 or something like that, you end up winning. And I'll take Oregon to cover. No money, no anything like that. No Ramen noodle express, but I will take Oregon to win and cover. If you want to go to the game, it's going to be a good one. If you haven't already gotten your tickets, no worries. In fact, if you haven't gotten your tickets to whichever game you're going to this weekend, good news. They're available at SeatGeek right now, so you can go to seatgeek.com search the game. I don't care what it is. Go watch James Madison. I don't care. They're playing Washington State this Saturday, by the way. Press thought I didn't know. Oh, I know. And you can go over there. Just grab your tickets, go to the checkout, and right before you pay, enter the code PATE10P a T E10. And that'll get you 10% off your final order. What more can we do? Well, I guess I could just buy all the tickets for everyone, but I don't know. It just seems kind of irresponsible for me to put that offer out there. I really think that would be my mouth writing a check that the bank account cannot cash. So I'm gonna get you 10% off SeatGeek. You're gonna buy the tickets anyway. Like, if you're gonna buy tickets anyway, do it at SeatGeek so you can get 10% off Pate 10. That's the checkout code.
- [32:24]
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Los Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [32:28]
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Los Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
- [32:31]
Matt Rogers
Hey, Bowen. It's gift season.
- [32:33]
Bowen Yang
Ugh. Stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me? Exactly, honey.
- [32:39]
Steve Sarkeesian
Easy.
- [32:40]
Matt Rogers
But you're right. Holiday gifting is stressful.
- [32:42]
Bowen Yang
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
- [32:45]
Matt Rogers
Wait, what about the guide we made.
- [32:46]
Bowen Yang
In partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts mean incredible value?
- [32:50]
Matt Rogers
It's Giving Gifts, a series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
- [32:56]
Bowen Yang
Yeah, because if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
- [33:00]
Lowe's Advertiser
Right?
- [33:01]
Matt Rogers
How about something for the people who actually surprise you with categories?
- [33:05]
Bowen Yang
Like Best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto. Psst, she wants a pair of stilettos.
- [33:11]
Matt Rogers
Or Best gifts for me that were so thoughtful, I really shouldn't have dying.
- [33:14]
Bowen Yang
To see what those are.
- [33:15]
Matt Rogers
And you won't believe their prices.
- [33:17]
Bowen Yang
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
- [33:21]
Matt Rogers
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
- [33:24]
Bowen Yang
Honestly, this is the guide for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
- [33:28]
Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's.
- [33:31]
Bowen Yang
Giving gifts Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
- [33:34]
Josh Pate
Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CE Arvind Krishna and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
- [33:50]
Arvind Krishna
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
- [34:41]
Josh Pate
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.
- [34:52]
Odoo Advertiser
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- [35:53]
Lowe's Advertiser
Cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops. Because honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is going to give you two free select tools from dewalt, Craftsman or Cobalt when you buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus rewards members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in. Shop New December deal drops on Lowe's.com every week this month, fresh deals, cozy vibes, zero effort.
- [36:31]
Josh Pate
We move on. Lot to get to lot to still get to tonight.
- [36:37]
Yesterday was one of the more memorable days that I ever remember just being a college football fan. The Lane Kiffin Saga the Lane Kiffin Multi Part Documentary. If there's a camera crew following him around right now, this will be must see Netflix. Down the road we had flight tracking, which I thought was dead. I thought everyone had privatized tail numbers. And as it turns out, not quite so. We had Lane Kiffin's family in Baton Rouge and we had them spotted in Gainesville the day before that. Checking out what? I don't know, checking out ice cream shops. Could have been checking out schools, could have been checking out property. I do want to tell you this happens all the time. It does not happen this publicly. So I could tell you guys, multiple coaches, families that have taken these kinds of trips in this cycle right now. It just so happens you know about lanes because everyone's paying attention in Gainesville and Baton Rouge. And so what's the latest here? Well, the latest here is very clearly a decision's got to get made. It could be that he stays at Ole Miss. It could be that he goes to Florida. It could be that he goes to lsu.
- [37:47]
I stop there for now because those are the three that are most readily mentioned with Lane Kiffin. You never know. You never know at the 11th hour what could happen in college football, what offers could come from the NFL. And I'm not saying I have any knowledge of that. I'm saying you never say never in this sort of world. So what do we know? Not a Whole lot. At least publicly, not a whole lot. But yesterday, if you were, if you were glued to the Internet, I mean, we had everything, okay, we had hundreds of threads, deep message board posts, just like the good old days. We had flight tracking just like the good old days. We had people staked out, hiding behind bushes at local FBOs. Fixed based operators, fancy term for private airports. Just like the good old days. Really. This is what college football is supposed to be. It's the greatest sport in the world. And after all that, lane goes on McAfee earlier today and claims that he did hot yoga with his current athletic director Keith Carter this morning.
- [38:58]
You know what Martin Scorsese would say about that? I don't even need to say the word. You know, he'd throw those hands up, he'd lean back, the picture would be black and white cinema. That's what he'd say. I don't think a decision's been made yet, but I know that everyone's going to overrule me on message boards here and there and talk radio shows, and that's okay. Here is what's happening. I know that there was a lot said about an ultimatum. I said on Sunday, that's exactly what I would do if I were Ole Miss. That's what I would do if I were Keith Carter. I've got to look out for myself. So I told you guys on the Sunday show what I would do is we're in the middle of a bi week right now at Ole Miss. It's okay. I don't need to press the issue on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday. And so.
- [39:51]
You can just let things simmer for a little while is the point. Okay. You don't have to hardline on Monday or Tuesday of the bi week, but rest assured, they want an answer by early next week. You need resolution on this by early next week. Contrary to popular opinion out there, it's my belief that a decision hasn't really been arrived at quite yet. I know the reaction that gets anytime I say that on the show. People will send me links to message board posts or they'll send me links to this clip from a podcast. I respect you guys. I appreciate it. I don't need that. If I wanted to know something, I just hit laying up. So if I really, really needed to know on something, I don't need to go third hand, fourth hand on that.
- [40:38]
Respectfully, there's a lot of stuff that you just don't say because you don't burn sourcing and you don't violate Trust that people have in you, but it's not violating trust.
- [40:49]
Odoo Advertiser
I'll tell you.
- [40:49]
Josh Pate
I just don't think a decision's been arrived at yet. But I think one is rapidly approaching and I think a lot of due diligence has been done. You know, if I were in Lane shoes, I'd probably keep it a lot closer to the vest. But if I were in Lane shoes and I had these offers in front of me, I'd send my family to go scout stuff out. That's just what I would do. So I don't really fault him for that. If you got a problem with the theatrics behind this whole thing, no problem with it. I got no problem with anyone thinking that because I said the other night I spoke my piece on how I'd feel if I were an Ole Miss fan. I spoke my piece on how I would feel if I were a high level donor there. I spoke my piece on how I would feel as the ad. Now, the one thing that you need to be careful about is assuming that you know what's been communicated back and forth. Because the one thing that I do believe Lane's been is pretty forthright with the administration at Ole Miss. I don't think there are a lot of moves he's making that they don't know about. I don't think there is a great deal of, you know, visits here or conversations there that have been had by Lane Kiffin that Keith Carter and the administration aren't aware of. Now, at some point, that doesn't matter. Full transparency doesn't matter at a certain point. I think that point's coming pretty soon. And what I've seen is a lot of, you know, what I would call Window Intel. This is really dangerous. It's dangerous when you're following a recruitment. It's dangerous when you're following a coaching search. Here's what Window intel is. Window intel is, you know, for instance, if you know one of the major realtors in Gainesville and you get told, hey, Kiffin's family is in town right now, I'm showing them houses. You think that's it? You think like I have? I've got the scoop here because through the limited window vision that you have, through the one source that you may have, you're aware that they're looking at real estate, man, they're looking at homes here. Why would he do that if he wasn't coming here? Well, what if I told you that unbeknownst to you, he's got plans or they've Got plans to do the very same thing in Baton Rouge. The next day, you wouldn't be aware of that. So you'd run to your message board and you would say, done deal, Lane to Florida. And then the very next day in Baton Rouge, they'd run to their message board and say, done deal, Lane to lsu. You got no clue. You got no clue what he's going to do. You don't even know if he's got any clue what he's going to do yet. It's unpopular to say that, you know, because I don't know what he's going to do. Doesn't get a whole lot of clicks, which is what we're in the business of. After all, old clickbait paid here. That doesn't get, you know, that didn't get nearly as much traction as some other things have gotten recently. My personal feel on this is, if I had to lean one way or another, I don't. I don't know. I don't know. I think it has to get ironed out by this time next week. That's what I think. Because I will just paint you a picture right quick. If this is not ironed out by next week, the egg bowls on Friday, it's going to get really ugly if it's not ironed out by next week. I don't. I don't know if you've really played this scenario out in your mind. I know Ole Miss fans have. I know like Florida fans, LSU fans have. If you're just a Missouri fan, you're just watching this for fun. Imagine the night before that game. It's Thanksgiving. We've got no answer yet. You go into the day of the game, Lane's coaching the egg bowl. You have no clue. Ole Miss officials have no clue. And then he's got a postgame press conference and they win. If they win. I mean, they're headed to the playoff either way. We've still got no clue. It'd be really toxic. Really toxic. And that's even before we know whether or not Ole Miss has put an ultimatum in front of him and said, we've got to have an answer. I fully believe that's going to happen if it hasn't already happened. I know what was said today. I don't care. I believe that's going to happen if it hasn't already happened in not so many words. So it's going to be a really memorable week next week if it gets there now. I know there was a lot of expectation that some announcement was going to come this week again. That was never going to happen ever, under any circumstances. That was never going to happen. Jesse. We got to get a bigger earpiece. That was never going to happen. But I will not say never at all about early next week because that could be an absolute circus. They're watching us in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, Vicksburg, Mississippi, and Chisholm, Minnesota, if I'm correct, is the town that Moonlight Graham is from in Field of Dreams. And we've got fans in Chisholm. Huh? Chisholm, Minnesota. I gotta go check on that.
- [45:20]
I have a question. Well, I don't have a question. I just got some Chapstick I got to put on Bradley. You can throw up the question. Yeah, there we go. So I need to address this as well.
- [45:32]
Stephen from Gadsden, Alabama, said, did we buy back our Calyn DeBoer stock too soon? Maybe we should have just waited after the FSU loss. What does this even mean.
- [45:43]
Buy back the stock too soon? So is that to. Am I to take that to mean you sold your stock after fsu, so you sold low, then you bought back, and now you're questioning whether you should have bought back, which insinuates something terrible has happened? Well, yes. They lost a football game last Saturday. So I think sometimes in college football, it is popular to take the sentiment of the extreme fringe of a fan base and amplify it as the mainstream of the fan base. So I don't think the mainstream of the Alabama fan base is yelling anything like this. However.
- [46:23]
I don't know that to be sure. So let me just speak my piece on this. Let me ask the question there. Let me ask the guy who just asked the question there. Our friends in Gadsden, what do you think Alabama is?
- [46:38]
Let's just humor me for a second. If you're out there and you got doubts about Kaylan DeBoer, what do you think Alabama is? First question, second question. What do you expect from Kalyn DeBoer? And then the third question, if you're really unhappy with him right now, who is the standard? Who is it that you want him emulating? Don't say Nick Saban. Nick Saban's not an active head coach anymore. And by the way, in the latter portion of the Saban tenure, I know it gets romanticized and it gets whitewashed. There were a ton of one possession games, there were losses, there were penalties all over the place. Offensive line play had regressed. You had some of the same issues. So don't be saying Nick Saban either. Nick Saban at his pinnacle is never going to happen again in the history of the sport or the future of the sport because the landscapes changed. So out of the available candidates, and this is theoretically, if you're unhappy with Kalen DeBoer, out of the available candidates, who's the standard? Pick him out. I don't care. Take your time. List the best in the game. Is it Ryan Day? Is it the guy who has been handled by his rival four consecutive years and lost two regular season games last year only to finally find his way to a national championship for the first time? Is that him? Is that the standard? You tell me. Is it Kirby Smart, the guy who had you walk in and beat him in his home building this year? Trailed Auburn at the half, Bunch of one possession wins. Now they're peaking at the right time. But are you telling me that's the standard? Like, pick the guy. I don't care who it is, pick the guy. And I want you to illustrate for me the separation between whoever that is and what Calen DeBoer has done in his career. But what he's done this year, even who is it There isn't that guy, is there? No, there's not. So here's my thought on this. The way I've chosen to look at Alabama this year, that FSU game was abysmal to start the season. You can't do anything about that. Imagine that Monday if I sat you down. Bama just lost. What was it, Jesse, 3117 or something like that? Imagine Bama fresh off a two possession loss to Florida State. I sit you down that Monday and I say, Bama fan from Gadsden, Alabama, you're going to go into the Iron bowl with your entire playoff fate and SEC championship fate in your hands. Will you take that? You would have done cartwheels even though you've never done one in your life. You would have done all kinds of acrobatic maneuvers you never even thought possible with or without a trampoline. And the reason is because half of you thought your season was dead in the water. And for a little while I wondered if you were right. So I view this as an excellent coaching job. They didn't have the team ready out of the gate. I think it surprised them as much as anyone else. But then they circled the wagons and they went on that stretch run as tough as any stretch any team has faced this year, won every game and then dropped the Oklahoma game the other day. So this is not a good. This is a good team. This is not a complete team at no point this year was this going to be a complete team. They're still very much in a state of flux with their roster. They're still very much in a state of transitioning this roster to what they want it to be. You think that offensive line personnel is really what they want? You think that tailback personnel is what they want and what eventually they'll have there? I don't. But I think they're doing the best with what they have right now. So my advice to you is be honest with yourself. If anyone's thinking along these lines, be honest with yourself. I would have said the same thing to Ohio State fans after the Michigan game last year. This is a really healthy exercise if you'll do it and be honest. Take a pen, not a pencil. Take a pen, and I want you to go buy a new notebook. And then I want you to use that pen. Pretend that you have the power of an athletic director. And I want you to write down your thoughts on your coach. You got to constantly keep a log of it after every week. I need you filling in that log at least once weekly whenever you feel like it's time to fire him. I want you to write down, I would have fired him today. Some of you would have written that after the FSU game about DeBoer. Not a ton of you. Some of you would have. That's the group I'm talking to right now. Just like Jim Harbaugh Post 2020, 2021, that time frame. Most Michigan fans would have fired him if they had their. If they had their choice, they would have fired him. Okay? Unbeknownst to them, they were going to give up a national championship. They were going to give up multiple wins against Ohio State. How they went about that, okay, you could litigate that on another show, but they would have given that up because they couldn't see around the Corner. So with DeBoer or anyone else, like, there's folks who would have written in their little log about Ryan Day, fire this bum. Got to get him out of here. Now. He goes on to win a national title, which you never would have reaped the benefit of had you had your way. And anyway, I want you to do this, and then I want you to let a few years go by. This is not an exercise that is done in 48 hours. And I want you to just go back. You're not allowed to erase anything. You're not allowed to tear any pages out of the notebook. And I want you to read how many different times you were sky High and rock bottom low on the coach in question could be Kalyn DeBoer. It could be Shane Beamer. I mean, think about doing this with Beamer. My goodness, think about doing it with Dabo. Point being, you have to move at the speed of honey, not the speed of water on this stuff. We haven't used this analogy in a while. One of the great meemaw isms in the history of judgment is she said you got to judge your coaches at the speed of honey. Mima says take two plates, okay? One in each hand. You put a drop of honey in the middle of one plate. You put a drop of water in the middle of the other plate. Turn both those plates sideways. The drop of water just falls right off. The drop of honey slowly starts to go south. Now, if you hold that plate there long enough, even the honey ends up on the ground. But it takes a while. And in the aggregate, the plate may just turn right side up, may even turn the other way. But if you remove it at the speed of water, you'll never know. And that's kind of the way that I think you have to judge this. But if I have not talked you off the ledge and you're someone who is ready to sell your Calyn DeBoer stock, please let me know, because I'll take every bit of it. I've got room in my portfolio, so I'll take every bit of it. I've got great news for really anyone, but especially people who can find themselves in Atlanta December 5th. If you're going to be in Atlanta December 5th, maybe you're an A and M fan. Maybe you're a Georgia fan. Maybe you're a Bama fan. Maybe you guys are playing in the SEC Championship game. Maybe you just live there and you're a big fan of the show. We're doing our first ever live event, and it's at the Buckhead Theater. It's in Buckhead. It's the Friday night before the SEC championship game. Tickets on sale now over at patestatematerial.com it's going to be a great event. We're going to have friends of the program there, some surprise guests. I'm not announcing them right now. We're going to have exclusive merch you can only get at that event. This will be the first event we've ever done like this. I'm not talking about doing an episode of the show there, okay? The episodes of the show are right in this studio. Maybe sometimes on the road, but we broadcast all those shows live on the YouTube channel. This won't be broadcast anywhere, which means we're free to tell some stories that we may not be able to tell on air and it's going to be a blast. So we did this with the bus and guys up in Lincoln earlier this year and I was a guest of theirs, but I watched it happen and it was a fun time up there. So we're going to look to replicate that in Atlanta. I am telling you, those tickets are going to go pretty fast. I think we can get like 800 or so in the theater so they're going to go pretty fast. You're going to want to go ahead and snatch those up and it's going to be really fun, really interactive, ton of Q and A, a ton of passing the mic around, ton of interaction. There's no hard out time. We kind of just get to hang out and do whatever we want to do. So that's going to be a real fun time. Looking forward to that. Tickets on sale now.
- [54:51]
Next up, it's a game no one's talking about this weekend. Missouri plays Oklahoma this weekend and it's like an afterthought and it shouldn't be. This is a noon eastern, 11am Central time. Kickoff on ABC. Very under the radar game. It's only Missouri's third road game. I don't know how that's possible. The week before Thanksgiving. Eli Drinkwitz has left home three times now. They'll, they'll end the season back to back road games, whatever. What do you think the line is on this game if you're not already aware, Mainly for the podcast crowd that can't see the lower third here. What would you think the lion is on this game? Home field baked in for Oklahoma. The line is seven and a half. Does that seem low to you? Well, Missouri's losses are Alabama, Vandy and A and M. Those are three playoff caliber teams right now. Matt Zollers has been the starting quarterback for them since Beau Prabula went down. There are some rumblings that Prabula may be available for this game. I think Eli said he expects Zollers to start, but at the very least that's worth keeping an eye on. Missouri's kind of accepted their offensive identity though, so you know they're not going to light the world on fire through the air with Matt Zoller's. But they didn't try to last week. Ahmad Hardy went for 300 on the ground against Mississippi State. They got the number six rushing offense in the country. Now that runs smack dab into Oklahoma strength as a defense. Oklahoma's got the number 3 run D in the country. It's kind of an inverse of last week's game. So Oklahoma went to Bama last week and Bama's like, we don't run the ball anyway. We throw the ball. And so that's what you're going to have to contain. And Oklahoma contained it. They didn't contain it in a way where you shut it down because Bama still threw for over 300 on them. They contained it in a way where we're going to knock the ball loose every chance we get. We're going to force turnovers and then in a complimentary fashion, we're going to beat you on your home field. Well, this is the total inverse of that. Missouri is absolutely going to try and run the ball. Missouri can't beat you if they don't run the ball. So unlike Bama, who was at least comfortable with you shutting down their run, you shut down Missouri's run, you shut down the game. Can you? All right, and then the follow up, because I'm not sure you're going to totally shut it down. I don't think Ahmad Hardy is going for 300 in the game, but I don't think you're going to totally shut it down. But the follow up question is if you shut it down enough, can you get some margin here? Are you going to be good enough offensively? Like, Oklahoma was very limited offensively last week. They've been somewhat to significantly limited since the John Mateer injury. Their tailbacks have come on a little bit lately, but they're a little bit banged up at tailback right now, too. So Brent Venables, as recently as today talked about how we have to spread it around a little bit. We. We don't totally know our health status at that position. Missouri's top 20 run D, they're top 20 past D. It's a really good defense. People will overlook them. I could even see an Oklahoma fan saying to themselves, it's Missouri. And you know what I mean when I say that It's Missouri. And what you don't realize is it could be one of the best defenses you face all year and easily one of the most versatile and opportunistic defenses you face all year and your bottom half in every stat category offensively except red zone offense right now. So the reason I paint that picture is I've got no reason to think that Oklahoma is just going to pull away in the game. Offensively, Oklahoma can pull away in the game. That Cause they got many different ways they can score. They got many different ways they can set themselves up with short fields. But if, if Missouri were to do to Oklahoma what Oklahoma did to Bama last week, which is make them drive the length of the field constantly set them up inside their own 20 yard line, it's a standard game. In other words, that's tough to just envision Oklahoma just marching their way down the field over and over and over again. So I think Mattier will have to make plays here for Oklahoma to win. I think Zollers will have to make plays. I got no clue if Prabula will play or not. But it feels like a game that's won in the margins. It's really tough to separate these teams in that kind of game. They're both in the 80s in turnover margin. But that didn't matter for Oklahoma last week. They were plus three. That's why it's kind of randomized. But there's skill in forcing those turnovers. Both of these can do it. They're both top 20 in third down defense. They're both top 15 in sacks. Oklahoma's been excellent at owning field position though. That's where they shine. And they haven't done a better job all year than they did last week in that department. So let's take a look at what the model thinks. The total in the game is 42 and a half, which implies low scoring game. Obviously really compacted game, limited possessions. FanDuel's got Oklahoma -7 and a half. I was kind of surprised to see the models got Oklahoma minus five guys. That's with everything baked in. That's with home field baked in. That's with backup quarterback baked in. And the backup QB's played a number of weeks now for Missouri, so like got a good idea of what he is. But after the ridicule and the scorn suffered on this show at the hands of Oklahoma, if you think I'm about to give you another sound bite, you're crazy. Okay. That creative media department did me wrong. I deserved it. They did me wrong. I had it coming. They did me wrong. They released the cinematic recap of the game. I think my voice was like the first half minute, like, was that really necessary after all we've been through together? Oh, I'll take Oklahoma to win the game. Now if I'm betting the game total, this low game, this compacted game, this, this much on the margins, anything over a touchdown. So if this line's seven and a half right now, I would just bet the Dog. But in terms of who's going to win the game, Missouri's got a good shot because I'm not going to be there. Missouri can't win a game if I'm in attendance. But since I'm not going to be there, Eli Drinkwitz and his team have a fighting chance. I think it's a low scoring game. I think Oklahoma finds a way to win the game though. Right there in the playoff mix. Right there in the middle of the playoff mix. All right, had a question here as we roll on. Yeah. Kyle from Dallas said, what do you think about Sark's latest rant? Well, you may or may not be aware that Sark did have a little mini rant. Now keep in mind they're a three loss team. Now. They're coming off the Georgia loss. You know that you got Arkansas Saturday. Actually, I don't think most of the country understands they play Arkansas Saturday. They just know they play A and M the next week. But yes, they do have Arkansas Saturday. Anyway, they look like they're going to be a three loss, maybe a four loss team. And so some people are starting to say that Texas was overrated. Texas has disappointed. Sark got asked about this in his press conference, I believe yesterday. Here's what he had to say.
- [61:42]
Arvind Krishna
Steve, would you say the main reasons are this team is underachieved?
- [61:47]
Steve Sarkeesian
According to who?
- [61:48]
Arvind Krishna
Well, your preseason number one. I think most people would agree three losses is not achieving what you are capable of.
- [61:55]
Steve Sarkeesian
I mean, I guess that's into who voted us number one. Okay. What I think is that this team has competed their tail off. They've been faced with a lot of different adversity and injuries and a lot of stuff has come across this team's plate. And I'm very, very of proud, proud of them with their resiliency. You know, at the end of the day at the University of Texas, we're held to a very high standard and the standard is to compete for championships year in and year out. And we're going to play the best teams in the country. We're going to schedule the best teams in the country. But by the end of the season we'll play of our 12 regular season opponents. Five of those teams will be top 10 teams when we played them. So nearly half our schedule. And we have an opportunity at the end of the regular season to do something that Nobody's done since 2019 and that's beat three top 10 ranked teams in the regular season. Last team to do that was LSU with Joe Burrow. So have we been faced with a pretty difficult schedule? Have we been faced with high expectations? Sure, but that's why we came here. So we'll be okay.
- [63:00]
Arvind Krishna
All right.
- [63:02]
Josh Pate
What I made of that is.
- [63:05]
That is a message for the playoff committee, really, is what that is. That is a message of let's try and win these next two games, finish with three losses and let that be the talking point because that's really their only hope right now to make the playoff. Is there a three loss team? And the committee looks at the criteria through the proper lens, like the lens Sark just gave you, which is, hey, man, we've beaten a lot of top 10 teams when they were top 10. That's not really how he thinks. Steve Sarkeesian is really smart. I love hanging around Sark. I love talking to him, love having him on the show. Like, he is very analytical, he's very competitive. I promise you. You know, when he's looking himself in the mirror, when they're sitting around a staff room, they don't do this during the season, but like when they're assessing the season in totality, they're not looking at it, talking about how many top 10 teams they faced. That's just. It's messaging and he's got to do it and I would do it. And if you were in his spot, you actually would sound very similar. What you're not going to do is go out there and say, yeah, we suck, man. Yeah, I had really high expectations. We failed, man. I've got to tear it down and start from scratch. That's not what you do publicly. Now, what you do privately is you got to acknowledge where you've failed. And they have failed this year. That staff's failed this year. That staff's fallen short. Well, short of the expectation they should have for themselves. I mean, look, we were out there in the spring and again had him on the show. Really appreciate it. I thought he was dead on the money. And in terms of the picture he presented, which was, hey, this is kind of our first go around with everything in this building being ours. We got our quarterback. This roster is totally ours. Everything's ours now. So this will be a true reflection of our Texas. It's not good enough. That's all. It's not good enough. Now, that's the easy thing to say. The easy thing to do is look at the win loss record and say, well, that's not good enough. This is Texas. You're Steve Sarkeesian, you guys got the nil, You've got recruiting, you got Facilities. You got all this stuff, you got an army of some of the best staffers in the country. You ought to be better. Yeah, that's accurate, but that's not a fix. The fix involves getting your hands dirty. It involves making changes that are going to be really hard because they're your people. It involves maybe changing something about yourself, maybe course correcting 20 degrees of your own personal philosophy. You saw what it's supposed to look like last Saturday. You're not that. Georgia is what it's supposed to be like, and Texas is not Georgia. We've pretty emphatically decided that in the last calendar year. That just means you keep working. That just means you got to make changes. That means you've got to adjust. That means you've got to tinker and you've. You've got to evolve here. And maybe, you know, it means changing personnel. Maybe it means adjusting your roster or recruiting a different kind of kid or using different approaches in recruiting like.
- [66:08]
He. He. I promise you, Steve Sarkeesian is not looking at their results this year and saying, that's okay. No, no. What he's doing right now is he's fighting to do as good as he can with the reality of what they are. The reality of what they are is, well, short of a national championship, competing team, contending team, which is what they thought they would be, they were wrong. I thought they could be that. I was wrong. What they are is just very incomplete.
- [66:37]
So you get to the end of the season, you fight as much as you can to play as long as you can, which is what he's doing right there when he says that they're not going to play much longer, and then it'll come time to course correct. I know there are a lot of rumors out there about him and his future and whatnot. If that stuff happens, we'll talk about it. If and when it happens. Until it happens. Steve Sarkeesian is the head coach of Texas. As long as they'll have him there, and as long as that's the case, then everything I'm saying applies. So I'm not really sure when you get into the granular detail of things, like, I'm not really sure how it's possible for people to relate to it. I'm really. I'm serious about that. Because, like, even if I were to look at it, if I say, oh, I don't think you're good enough on defense, fire your coordinator. Oh, I don't think your special teams are good enough, fire your special teams coordinator. Oh, I Don't think your roster is good enough, Fire your general manager. That is so easy for me to say. I'm speaking generically there, not about Texas specifically. That's so easy to say. I don't know those people. I didn't hire them. I didn't have them move my families here also or their families here also. You never know if, like, one of your staffers shortcomings are directly correlated with you not being what you need to be, you not setting them up to succeed. You know, a lot of times staffers are retained even though their position group's results or their side of the ball's results are very, very bad because the head coach knows I didn't put him in the best position to succeed. Now, he's not going to step to a press conference podium in all likelihood and say that. But we're watching an example of that, ironically, with the team Texas just played. Texas just played Georgia. Georgia put on a clinic. Candidly, I think offensively, they've been putting one on all year. If half the Georgia fan base had their way, Mike Bobo wouldn't even be there to put the clinic on because Mike Bobo would have been fired. Kirby didn't fire him. Why didn't he fire him? Maybe, just maybe, Kirby looked at it and said, mike's doing exactly what I've asked him to do. Maybe I haven't put him in a good enough position to succeed. Maybe we as an organization haven't provided him with the players here or the development there. Maybe there are other adjustments that need to be made than just fire this guy. So maybe that's the case at Texas, or maybe it is a personnel situation or a staffing situation at Texas. That is the hard part. That's the tough part. Because, like, really, if you think about it, if you're Steve Sarkeesian, you got like 500 changes you could make. How do you know which changes are the proper combination of changes to make? And how do you decide which of them you can make during the season and which of them have to wait until the end of the year? I'm not asking you to feel sorry for him. He gets paid a whole lot of money. So, of course, when you get paid a lot of money, no one ever gets to feel sorry for you. You're not a real human. You have no, like, real emotion. You're just a robot. But that's kind of a joke because I do understand. It's a big boy business. Like, he's an adult. He gets paid a lot of money. You got to produce results or they'll find the next guy. Texas or otherwise. They'll find the next guy. But, yeah, what I thought about the latest rant was. I didn't think it was a rant that accurately reflected his feelings towards his current results, as much as hoping to lobby for a backdoor spot into the playoff. If they're able to take care of business these final two games.
- [70:12]
If you would like. If you would like to contribute to something very worthwhile, I want to remind you, a couple of weeks ago, we announced our partnership with the Magnolia Foundation. The Magnolia foundation was started by a buddy of ours named Matt. He lives in nearby Cookeville, Tennessee. There was a tornado that came through here March 3rd of 2020. It hit my building. I was in it. Matt's house took a direct hit several miles to the east of here. He lost his little girl in that tornado. There were, I think, 23 or 24 fatalities during that tornado. She was one of them. They realized the burden that the expense of losing a loved one, especially a child, can put on a family. They went through it. And so shortly thereafter, they started the Magnolia Foundation. The Magnolia Foundation's purpose is to assist with people who have lost children ages 0 to 18. And it helps with funeral expense, and it helps with all kinds of expenses that pop up afterwards. Counseling, for example, commemorative care, those sorts of things. That's where the Magnolia foundation comes in. So I've known Matt for a little while. We've talked about how we can partner. We finally made it happen. So you can do a couple of different things. You could go to the Pate State Store right now because we've got an entire Magnolia foundation line of merchandise. So proceeds from that 50% of those proceeds go to the Magnolia Foundation. But you can also just go to the Magnolia Foundation's website if you want to bypass the purchase of a hat. Now, look, those hats look really good. Okay? Those T shirts look really good. I've got some in my apartment right now. But if you're not interested in that and you just want to contribute directly, you can go to the Magnolia Foundation's website directly. Many of you have. I have gotten feedback that a lot of you have left comments over there. Like I told you, last week, one guy made a sizable donation and then said, could you please tell him to talk about Indiana on the show more? That was the condition under which they made a contribution to the Magnolia Foundation. Detroit airport stepped up. Our friends at the Detroit airport stepped up more information on that in the near future. I mean, really stepped up. Really stepped up. So, I mean, if you're listening out there at Hartsfield, at Shuttlesworth, at bna, the Detroit Airport has stepped up big time for the Magnolia Foundation. I just want it to be known it wasn't an airport in the south that stepped up. It was Detroit that stepped up. And we appreciate them. All right, let's Continue here. The JP Poll is released for week 13. The JP Poll, many things, but rankings, it is not. It is power. Ratings, it is spat out by the model every week. As you can see, these are not rankings. It's just neutral field favorability. And time and time again, people push back on it. Either number one, because they don't understand what it is, or number two, cause they do understand what it is, but they don't like it. For instance, as I'll show you in just a second, Penn State is still in the top 20. And a couple of weeks ago I told you Penn State was still in the top 20. And you're like, no way. Hey, what's Penn State done since then? So like everybody who tried to pick apart Penn State still being in this thing, where'd they go? Where'd they go? Jesse, I don't see them anymore. Jesse was one of them. So that's what we're doing here. Now let's start to lay it out and then I'll walk you through some of this. Missouri is number 20 right now. Penn State's 19. So Penn State is still in this thing. Vandy's 18. Brigham Young is 17. Iowa is 16. A couple of really important notes here. Penn State is at 19. I don't know who's going to win the ACC championship game, but it's going to be probably Georgia Tech or Virginia or someone like that. I can guarantee you Penn State would be favored over the ACC champion no matter who it is on a neutral field. Make of that what you will. I never say that with anything more behind it. That doesn't mean Penn State deserves to go to the playoff. It doesn't mean anything other than what it means. This is just a helpful tool, a helpful resource. A lot of you find it interesting. If you don't, this is probably not the segment for you. Move on. But Penn State would be favored over the ACC champ. I don't care which of those teams it is. Brigham Young at 17 is very noteworthy. This is the highest they've been all year. They got a two and a quarter point bump from their win last week. The win over TCU is the most impressive thing Brigham Young has done all Year from the model's perspective, they got a huge boost from that and they're top 20 now. I was number 16, just kind of holding steady.
- [75:05]
USC is number 15.
- [75:07]
Oklahoma's number 14. Oklahoma is still going to be well behind Alabama. They're going to be well behind Texas. They're going to be behind Tennessee. I'll talk about that in a second. Miami is 13, Tennessee's 12. Texas is 11. So if you look at Oklahoma being behind Tennessee and you're like, we beat them on the road. It's true. Which means you got to win on the road and they can never take it away from you. And Tennessee got a loss and they can never take it away from them. This is not about that. It's about neutral field favorability. And Tennessee would be favored against Oklahoma on a neutral field that they play tomorrow. That's it. That's all? That's all. Now, you would be free to bet Oklahoma. I may join you. Texas at 11. I don't know what to tell you. Texas would be favored. They also faced you on a neutral field and beat you. So in that case, we have an anecdotal result. It's not anecdotal. It involves the two teams. But that at least supports our theory here. But even if you've lost or even if you've beaten teams above you, that automatically change what this would be. What else did I want to point out there? Oh, yeah, and Alabama is going to be well ahead of them, too. I don't really think Oklahoma fans would argue Bama would be favored. Now, it doesn't matter with the outcome because you beat them. So again, I want to emphasize there's a big difference between who'd be favored and who's won the games. Number 10 is Texas Tech. Number 9 is Utah. Guys, I disagree with it, too. If Texas Tech played Utah on a neutral field today, I'd pick Texas Tech. I'm just telling you the model would slightly favor Utah.
- [76:37]
And I don't know. I'm not sure what it's seeing. I'm just telling you what it's saying. I'm not ever saying it's flawless. I've never said that. I'm just giving you the information to do with what you will. I also think fanduel would disagree with this. In fact, I know they would. Which just goes to show you this is not me taking FanDuel data and dressing it up as our own because I promise you Texas Tech would be favored against Utah if they played. So clearly that's not what we're doing here. Ole Miss is at number eight. Ole Miss dropped a little bit after last week, actually. Oregon is at seven. Notre Dame is at six. Alabama has dropped to five.
- [77:17]
A&M is at four. Yes, there's big movement here. Indiana is three, Georgia has vaulted to number two in the JP poll and Ohio State is number one. So a couple of fun nuggets here. Immunity. Ohio State right now, according to the model would be favored by nearly four touchdowns against Virginia 26.
- [77:43]
I mentioned that because Virginia could very well win the accident. Ohio State could win the Big ten. Ohio State's favored to win it all right now. That just goes to show you we can't even say power four champion anymore because there could be a four touchdown gap between a couple of power four champions. These things are not all the same. Secondly, Georgia has skyrocketed. They jumped 2 1/2 points. Their raw power rating jumped 2 1/2 points after the Texas game. Georgia would now be a 2.3-point favorite over A&M and a 2.8-point point favorite over Bama. Of course, you're not going to favor a team by two and a 3.2.3. So the model would have Georgia minus three against Alabama in Atlanta, Georgia minus two and a half against a and M in Atlanta is what that boils down to. And Indiana is just still sitting there at number three. So that's where we are right now. I will say this through no fault. Of Ohio states, there has been at least a little bit of compacting at the top. Ohio State would still be a solid favorite against everybody, but there has been a little bit of compacting at the top at least. FanDuel is the exclusive odds provider of the show. There's a lot offered over there right now. Like for example, right before we came on air, I went over to see if they had the rivalry week lines already up. They do. Ohio State goes to Michigan next week. You can bet it right now. Ohio State -12 and a half. Iron bowl next week. You can bet it right now. Anyone want to guess Bama at Auburn? Anyone want to guess Alabama minus five and a half? Oh no. Oh no. Oh yes. Oh yes. You want to bet Heisman? It's over there right now. You want to bet odds to win the conference? They're over there right now. We appreciate them. And you know what else is over there? The ramen noodle express tab. And I'm about to add to it right now. And it brings me no joy to inform you that I am adding food to the Ramen Noodle Express. We're already on Western Kentucky plus 22 and a half. We're already on Kent State plus seven and a half. Ladies and gentlemen, rice is being served on the Ramen Noodle Express versus North Texas this week. Add rice plus 18 and a half. Now we know Rice is not going to win this game. North Texas is not going to lose to food, but we don't think they're going to cover against food either. So we are going to take Rice added with Kent State, added with Western Kentucky. That's the Ramen Noodle Express must be.
- [80:15]
FanDuel Advertiser
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- [80:59]
Josh Pate
Now look, if you watch the whole show tonight or listen to it or it's tomorrow morning, whatever, appreciate it. If you didn't hear playoff reaction, playoff rankings reaction, it's because I'm doing that separately. If you're watching live right now, they're about to reveal the rankings. I'm about to go barricade myself in my office. Watch it. I'm a march myself right back out here and we'll record an individual video about that and it'll be available on the channel. So appreciate you guys. Double check. Make sure you are subscribed right at 51% of you are still not subscribed to the channel, which I appreciate your viewership. Our numbers are through the roof. Just make sure you hit subscribe and if you think you are, just check. Just make sure you are. And if you're not, look at my hands together humbly. Just make sure you subscribe. It does nothing for you. It just helps us appreciate it so much. For director Bradley, producer Jesse I'm Josh participate. We will start the Thursday show 6pm Central, 7pm Eastern. We've gotten kind of used to that routine now. Gotta fly to Oregon Thursday night. So until then appreciate you guys. Take care. Get 10 of your friends to subscribe and God bless.
- [82:18]
FanDuel Advertiser
Must be 21 + and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC first online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatinceneticut or visit ndgamblinghelp.org In Maryland, Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.
- [83:02]
Josh Pate
Ah, greetings from my bath festive friends. The holidays are overwhelming, but I'm tackling this season with PayPal and making the most of my money getting 5% cash back when I pay in 4. No fees, no interest. I used it to get this portable spa with jets. Now the bubbles can cling to my sculpted but pruny body. Make the most of your money this holiday with PayPal. Save the offer in the app ends 1231. See paypal.com promoter points can be redeemed for cash and more. Paying for subject to terms and approval. PayPal Inc. And MLS 910457 okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line, but first.
- [83:51]
Lowe's Advertiser
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- [83:55]
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- [84:02]
Josh Pate
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- [84:29]
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- [84:37]
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