Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: Week 13 Upset Alerts + CFP Chaos Scenarios & Lane Kiffin Latest

Date: November 21, 2025
Host: Josh Pate
Featured Guest: Cole Cubelic

Episode Overview

In this episode, Josh Pate dives into a pivotal Week 13 of college football, delivering his signature "upset alerts" and breaking down College Football Playoff (CFP) chaos scenarios as the regular season nears its close. He shares insider chatter on the Lane Kiffin-Ole Miss situation and the broader landscape of coaching searches, joined by SEC Network's Cole Cubelic for a high level discussion on best practices in the coaching carousel and what's at stake for programs across the country. The episode is rich with Josh's trademark wit, directness, and detailed analysis.

Major Segments & Key Insights

1. Upset Alerts – Week 13

[02:02 – 16:55]
Josh delivers his traditional Thursday rundown of the week's highest upset potential, scoring his concern from 1 to 10 (with 10 being most likely for chaos).

Miami at Virginia Tech (Concern: 4/10)

• Miami favored by 17.5; must win impressively for "style points"
• Weather: mild, possibly rainy (“Miami's not going to play a single game all year where there's not rain apparently” – 05:07)
• Virginia Tech cannot throw; Miami top 5 in run defense

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (Concern: 6.5/10)

• Vandy is actually a slight favorite and clinging to playoff hopes for the first time
• Kentucky is hot, but banged up after six straight games; Vandy coming off a bye

Michigan at Maryland (Concern: 5/10)

• Michigan (-13.5) off a comeback win but turning the ball over
• Huge lookahead spot with Ohio State looming
• “Michigan could still make the playoff...this is a conference game. So theoretically they should be dialed in.” – 07:30

Kansas State at Utah (Concern: 2.5/10)

• Kansas State is “the most average team on the planet”
• Utah run game and playoff stakes expected to prevail

BYU at Cincinnati (Concern: 7/10)

• BYU a 2.5-point favorite
• Both time of possession and turnover margin favor BYU, but line is razor-thin

Tennessee at Florida (Concern: 8/10)

• Tennessee has not won in Gainesville since 2003
• “You’ll turn on this game and it’ll be wild…and you should respect it.” – 10:45
• Florida on a losing streak, volatile performances expected

Pitt at Georgia Tech (Concern: 10/10)

• “It’s possible the wrong team’s favored here...I am terrified for Georgia Tech.” – 13:07
• Pitt’s strength matches up well; Georgia Tech has been “wobbly for a few weeks now”

Arkansas at Texas (Concern: 8/10)

• Arkansas can throw; Texas’ pass defense is shaky
• Turnover margin could swing it

Notable Quote:

“If you hadn’t won in a building since the George W. Bush administration and you’ve been playing down there every other year...I assume chaos here.”
– Josh Pate on Tennessee at Florida, [10:54]

2. College Football Playoff Chaos Scenarios

[21:02 – 34:13]

Josh unpacks three major threads of CFP chaos as the postseason logjam looms:

The 10-2 Conundrum

• A dozen+ teams could realistically finish with two losses
• Key comparative matchups: Notre Dame vs Miami, Oregon vs USC, Alabama vs Vandy, etc.
• “It’ll all work itself out, they tell me. I don’t believe you.” – 23:08

The Week 14 Mega Riser

• Teams like Texas, Vandy, Georgia Tech, Michigan could inject chaos with a major late upset
• “If Georgia Tech upsets Georgia...that’s twofold. Number one, Georgia’s second loss...Number two, Georgia Tech…could jump into the ACC championship game…” – 24:53

The Conference Title Conundrum

• What happens if top-10 teams lose conference titles? Will the committee drop them out?
• At-large and G5 considerations muddle the bubble

Notable Quote:

“They just built this new presentation around it...all the committee does is go down there and eat crackers behind a closed door, have them probably take a nap, and then they show up Tuesday...and pretend like they ranked the teams...90% of that’s BS.”
– Josh Pate on the CFP committee process, [39:58]

3. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss, and the Coaching Carousel

[34:17 – 38:34]

• Discussion of the reported Ole Miss ultimatum: “For what it’s worth, I believe that’s accurate...” [34:37]
• Points out: similar pressure/issues surround Brent Key, Clark Lea, John Sumrall—“It’s not just a Lane thing.”
• Next week—rivalry week and Thanksgiving—could set off a coaching domino effect across major programs

4. Inside the Coaching Search – With Cole Cubelic

[48:09 – 72:40]

Best/Worst Practices for Modern Coaching Searches:

• Both agree: secrecy and speed are key (“Don’t loop in a whole lot of people, and...have the search done before the search begins.” – 53:15)
• Always have backup plans; don’t fire your coach without a vetted list in the top drawer

Josh’s “Cosmetic Extension” Tactic:

• “I would do a version of what Kurt Signitti did...let it be publicized that I just signed a new deal...wouldn’t really change the buyout parameters.” – 55:09
• “At least we don’t have to deal with the noise...even if it’s cosmetic.”
• Cole notes media/booster scrutiny if the buyout isn’t raised

Notable Exchange:

Cole: “...You’re also lying to an entire university and a fan base.”
Josh: “I’m not lying to him. I’m telling you part of my strategy...I would be straight up with my athletic director...”
– [57:52]

Teams and Trends to Watch:

• Florida State’s tightrope act; Mike Norvell on borrowed time
• Oklahoma’s defense as playoff x-factor
• Julian Sayin’s impressive play at Ohio State (“...there are four or five throws in each one of those games that are so wow worthy it’s almost not believable.” – 62:07)
• Georgia’s offense becoming “multifaceted”
• Importance of rivalry weekend on CFP seeding

5. SEC & ACC Storylines – Rivalry Week Implications

[64:58 – 72:14]

• Auburn: can play spoiler against Alabama, ongoing coaching search
• Iron Bowl intrigue: QB health, home crowd intensity (“It’s just a tough place to go play because the fans are passionate, get into it and they stay loud...” – Cole, 66:57)
• Georgia Tech possibly locking a playoff spot—unlikely preseason storylines becoming reality
• Rivalry week could be the “most important” in recent memory, with so many games holding CFP implications (Egg Bowl, Georgia-Georgia Tech, Texas-Texas A&M, Oregon-Washington)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the CFP committee:
  “That only works if you’re good at explaining it. But if you suck at explaining it, you need to just drop the act and...say: this is what the computer gave us. I’d take that at this point.” – Josh Pate, [41:57]

• On rivalry games’ lasting importance:
  “Believe it or not, contrary to what the casuals tell you, there can be meaning on games that don’t have playoff implications tied to them. This will be one of them.” – Josh Pate, [10:32]

• On the Iron Bowl environment:
  “You can say that place is haunted. I don’t agree with that. I think that’s disrespectful to the home crowd and the fans that are there because they make that environment what it is.” – Cole Cubelic, [66:57]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Upset Alerts Start: [02:02]
• Pitt at Georgia Tech Analysis: [13:07]
• Playoff Chaos Scenarios: [21:02]
• Committee Criticism/Transparency Rant: [39:58]
• Lane Kiffin Situation: [34:17]
• Coaching Search Strategies (with Cubelic): [48:09]
• Florida State/Norvell Discussion: [60:00]
• Rivalry Week and Conference Impacts: [68:12]

Tone & Style

True to Josh Pate's reputation, the discussion is brisk, direct, and unsparing—built on specificity, inside observations, and refusal to engage in empty hot takes. Josh weaves in wit and candid humor (“...probably wearing shorts from the waist down, but a suit and tie from the waist up...”), while guest Cole Cubelic offers veteran perspective on coaching logistics and SEC realities. Both keep the conversation focused on the nuts and bolts of football, uninterested in low-hanging fruit.

For New Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

If you haven’t tuned in before, this episode captures the decisive, detail-driven spirit that has made Josh Pate’s show influential among college football diehards, reporters, and fans. You get breakdowns not just of scores and storylines, but the mechanisms behind upsets, playoff politics, coaching searches, and what truly drives chaos in the sport. No fluff—just the information, context, and strategy enthusiasts need.

Further Resources:

• Cube Show Podcast with Cole Cubelic ([71:41])
• Live event December 5th, Buckhead Theater, Atlanta