← Keeping It Real: Conversations with Jillian Michaels
Keeping It Real: Conversations with Jillian Michaels
2026 ECONOMIC WARNINGS & PREDICTIONS - TRISH REGAN
00:54:20
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- [00:02]
A
Trish Regan is an award winning financial journalist, former Fox Business and CNBC anchor, and one of the sharpest voices calling out the gap between what Washington says and what the data actually proves.
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B
We're living in a really kind of interesting time where the Fed almost feels like they're sort of the engine for the wealthy.
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A
So today we're going to be tearing into the jobs report that just rocked financial markets. Why gas prices and wages aren't telling the story politicians and legacy media want you to believe. Whether or not inflation is still eating paychecks alive. What the hell are we really doing?
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B
And Venezuela, Maria Corona Machado, she was educated at Yale and she is somebody who would do business with us and she would probably be a heck of a lot better for the people of Venezuela.
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A
And where is this economy actually headed as we barrel toward 2026?
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B
If that happens, then you're looking at a scenario, Gillian, called deflation. And deflation is really bad, like inflation's bad. Deflation is the really, really, really ugly.
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A
Keeping It Real with Jillian Michaels. Trish, an absolute pleasure. Thank you so much for being here. I gotta be honest, I'm kind of, kind of in awe of you. You are one of the most impressive. Okay.
- [01:25]
B
Now I mean, I'm kind of in.
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A
Wickedly intelligence, you know, you know anybody.
- [01:29]
B
With your workout background and like, you know that that's amazing to me. So we have different things to appreciate in each other, I think. Jillian.
- [01:39]
A
Well, you're exceptionally kind. I'm going to be very forthcoming with you. The economy, including even honestly my own personal finances have always been a little bit intimidating to me. I've taken much more control over my personal finances over the years. But the economy unto itself and trying to decipher what the hell people are talking about is really overwhelming and really intimidating. You understand it and you break it all down for people. And I have some kind of dumb questions for you today, but I think most people have them and I appreciate your patience.
- [02:15]
B
I mean one of the when I first so I have a background in finance and first out of school had been working at Goldman Sachs trading emerging debt markets which interestingly obviously Venezuela very much in the news cycle these days, Argentina as well, which is what we were trading. But when I made the transition to news, I realized really quickly you need to be able to communicate with people and if you're talking about things in a language frankly that they don't understand, whether you're talking about the Fed and you want to talk about basis points or you want to talk about ppi without explaining that it's producer prices or durable goods, without saying, hey, you know, this is like a washing machine and a dryer, you're going to lose them. And this is almost like a foreign language for people. I get it. I mean, when I was a younger kid, I'd like, my parents would have CNBC on and I thought that, like, I could take a nap to it, right? Like, because it felt like somebody was speaking Russian, which is an entirely different thing. And then, you know, the irony is I eventually was working at cnbc, hosting a show on cnbc, cnbc. So I, by my nature, I love taking really complicated things and trying to break it down and make it accessible. I mean, not just for myself, but for everyone. You knew. You need to be able to explain it. And it can kind of be dry and boring. And I hope that it's exciting for people and I try and make it exciting because you know what? This is your livelihood, this is your future. This is our country's future and it matters.
- [03:43]
A
It's the number one issue people vote on. I was just talking to my producer about this and he's like, it's all about how heavy is your wallet. But the irony is that we vote on this issue, but we don't really understand how it all works or where it's all going. And there's so much going on in the news. And my producer's like, well, you know, the job report, jobs report drops this week. And I was like, michael, I can't even begin. I don't even understand this. I don't even know what it means. I couldn't interpret it for the life of me. And one side is telling us it's the end of the world and the other side is telling us they did everything right. And I was like, can, can you get Trish Regan on? I need Trish Regan. And so I want to start here. Okay, listen, we all get it. How many jobs did we lose? Jobs do we gain? Job. Let's, let's get into the nitty gritty though. What does this actually mean? What are the ramifications of the jobs report? Because it also affects like interest rates and we have a graphic that we're gonna throw up here. But basically the Trump administration is like, no, no, no, no. The jobs we lost were all administrative jobs. We've got strong growth in private sector jobs. Government jobs are down, so we're shrinking federal bureaucracy. 100% of the new jobs are going to native born Americans. And wages are outpacing inflation, which I want to get to a little bit later when I specifically ask you questions about inflation unto itself. So the Democrats are like, we lost jobs. Disaster. And the Trump administration is like, no, no, no, we just lost government jobs, but we gained jobs in the private sector. So we're shrinking the deficit over time. This is a good thing. Is this who, who's right here?
- [05:22]
B
Well, you don't want to be growing jobs in the government if you can grow them in the private sector. I mean, I mean, I don't know what your philosophy is on that, but I'm a, I'm a red blood American capitalist. So to me, you know, the more money government has, the more money government will spend and most likely the more opportunity for, oh, I don't know, things like we saw out in Minnesota will happen. So we don't want government having like, you know, basically this constant ability to spend our money. We want to put that in the hands of the people. It's its philosophy. I so fundamentally believe in. Born and raised in New Hampshire, live free or die in New Hampshire, where even the Democrats don't believe in taxes. They don't have an income tax, they don't have a sales tax. Somehow they still do it, Jillian. I don't know quite how, but they managed to, you know, balance the budget and, and not spend what they don't have. So keep government on a short lease, don't give them all this money and let those jobs go to the private sector. Why do you want to keep building up the government sector? Let's build up the private sector. So I, I, I, I'm, I'm in sync with what they're saying on that in terms of, you know, how many jobs are being added. Yeah, I agree. Like, it would be great to jobs. We didn't lose jobs. We still added jobs in the last month. But, you know, we, we want more. Like I said, ideally, you're looking at 300,000 just to keep pace with population growth.
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A
Okay, next question. From an observational perspective. I live in Wyoming. There are so many kids here, great kids, but they're all here on like an H1B visa because the businesses don't have anybody that will take the jobs. So on one hand, I completely understand. It's like they're taking our jobs and taking them, and yet on one hand, you've got 7 million job openings. And I hate to say nobody wants them, but it kind of seems like nobody wants them. So what do we mean that nobody can do that?
- [07:16]
B
In some cases? Right? Like, it's even worse. It's not that nobody. I mean, look, there are a lot of, you know, dishwasher at a restaurant, those kind of jobs that maybe nobody wants, or cleaning houses nobody wants, that you're, you're seeking an immigrant labor pool for. But Those aren't the H1B visas. The H1B visas are like the engineering jobs that we're not graduating enough kids out of universities in the United States of America that can actually get those jobs. And that's actually pretty alarming. You look at our math and science test scores, I mean, we have just sunk like you would. It's gotten worse and worse since COVID So we need to do a better job. And this actually the one place, the one and only place that I am sort of okay, you know, government needs a little more of a helping hand or voucher schools or whatever you want to do. Somehow, some way, we got to find a way to better educate our kids because we need the engineers. We need the tech people of the future. We want to lead the, the world for AI. And we, we can't let that, you know, be that. We can't, we can't give that up to China. And so we've got to do a better job educating the next generation of, of tech savvy kids. And we're not doing it like the math and science is awful. Like absolutely. The schools, the scores, I don't have them off the top of my head, but you know, you can take a look. We just keep sinking. So the reason people will talk about those H1B visas. And I get it, a lot of people are like, but wait a second, we're graduating engineers here. We're not graduating enough. So that needs to be fixed. And the H1B visa is kind of a band aid in the interim.
- [08:50]
A
I understand. Okay, you brought up AI, which was my obvious next question. How does the jobs report improve when. Trish, I'll just give you an example from my business. I invested in a supplement company. Formerly, we would have hired a photographer, we would have paid a location fee, we would have hired models, there would be a graphic designer. Now you drop the product into a frickin AI program and you tell it, can you please put this in the hands of a 40 year old woman of blah, blah, blah, descent and put her on the beat and it's like bam. All of those jobs have just been wiped. And the reality is that, you know, as a businesswoman, we're saving a gazillion trillion dollars. But I also know that I have a responsibility to create Jobs for people. What are we going to do about that? I don't see how this gets better. Am I, am I just ignorant? And there are all new jobs in.
- [09:49]
B
AI or your responsibility is to maximize profit for yourself, as is the responsibility of most companies. And the way that you will eventually create more jobs is to keep growing your profit and then seeking more and more opportunities. Someone used this example for me the other day and I thought it was fantastic because it was a Wall street investment banker who said, you know, you talk to people who've been around a while on the street and you know, they'll say, hey, you know, it used to take an entire 24 hours to get one of these pitchbooks done. Like, we'd have to wait and then you'd put it some bunch of numbers into a spreadsheet. And this is like 20 years ago, right? Or 25 years ago, and you'd have to wait till the next day. Nowadays you just pop the numbers into Excel, you hit a button and there you go. But here's the thing, Jillian. The number of people working on Wall street is vastly more. Right? Like is multiplied, multiplied by massive numbers compared to 25 years ago when you couldn't. Or 30 years ago when you couldn't do that so quickly. So I think what ultimately happens is we don'. We don't know how the economy is going to change. Granted, you may not be hiring the models or the same graphic designers that you would today, but how do you know if you're not super efficient with your capital, that there may be new places and new opportunities to bring people in? And so the world changes. The reality is we were once an agricultural society and a lot of people wanted us to stay in agricultural society. And then came the Industrial revolution and things change. And it happens. Sometimes you have pockets that are difficult, right? You know, when the refrigerator showed up and the iceman lost his job, that's not easy. But as a society, we keep moving forward. And if we don't move forward, if we just say, well, we're going to just stay stuck and we're not going to embrace the future or these new opportunities. If you're going to say, well, I'm just going to keep employing people because it's the right thing to do, as opposed to letting say, and this is the red blooded American capitalist in me. I'm going to do what's best for my company, I'm going to do what's best for my family, then that sort of individual sort of will guide that future. And there are Jobs that you cannot even imagine that will come from AI and will increase productivity and GDP and all of these things in ways that perhaps we haven't even totally imagined. I'm a big believer in it, and I'm a big believer in investing in it as well. I actually. You want to be part of this? I know a lot of people are freaked out, and I get it. Instagram teen accounts default teens into automatic protections for who can contact them and the content they can see. Explore Teen accounts and all of our ongoing work to protect teens online@instagram.com teenaccounts.
- [12:45]
A
I have no problem investing in it, that's for sure. And I'm lucky enough to be able to come at it from that angle. And, you know, as you were talking, I was thinking like, maybe, you know, the more product we make, the more jobs you provide in manufacturing and the people that produce the ingredients. And you gave me some great perspective on that, and I really appreciate it. This is a dumb question I don't understand, and I'm gonna make a layman's connection here, why less jobs means lower interest rates? Is it cause less people have money, so you're trying to incentivize them to spend? I don't get the connection. Because if the economy's stagnant, jobs report or no jobs report, why don't you lower the interest rate? No one can buy a house. No one can buy a car. Like, it's insane. It's insane.
- [13:30]
B
Well, you sound like Trump. I mean, this is what the President's been saying all over and over and again. And they did, by the way, lower rates by a quarter point. And people would have liked to have seen more. We'll see what happens next. Look, things have sort of changed, and it's discouraging. And this is why I keep saying, you know, people have to invest. Even if it's like $5 a week, find $5. Like, put it in the market. Try and do it young if you can. I mean, I realize if you're older, you got to start thinking about your retirement, right? Because you can't rely on Social Security necessarily. But you look at sort of the growth in the S and P over the last decade versus the growth in the average income, and it just. It's vastly different. So if you're not investing in the market, you're losing that opportunity. And it's. It's really, really. I can't stress enough important. You know, ideally you have a 401k or something at work. If you're not Self employed. And then you don't even see it. Right. Just put the money in there, don't even worry about it. Don't even look at it. When the market goes down, you still don't look at it. And hopefully you're diversified enough so that you're able to weather the storm. But if you're not investing in the market, then the world's kind of passing you by and there's been such tremendous growth there in terms of why this matters for the Fed. One of the discouraging things for me certainly as a journalist, and I've pounded my fist on the table about this, is the Fed is always like late and they always do like too much too late and they never do it.
- [14:57]
A
On top of feels like that as a regular bear, you're like, dude, right, Right.
- [15:04]
B
So you know what they're waiting for, Jillian? They're waiting for all the proof of the bad economic numbers. Ooh, the jobs report came in and what do you know, Unemployment rate is moving higher, we better move. And Trump is saying, much like you are saying, and actually I've been advocating for, no, no, look at the real time data. Don't wait around for the month later or two month later reports. Start looking at the real time data and actually understand the sensitivity issue of the middle class and how they relate to interest rates versus, say, the people that can afford the cars and afford the homes. They're not as interest rate sensitive, shall we say. But when rates come down and instead of, you know, 8% on a car loan, you can get a car loan for 4% or 5% that's mean meaningful for people and that frees up their opportunity to go and get that car or to get that house. And you know, as a business owner. Right. That might free up your ability to invest in new things, new factories, new equipment. And that's, you know, part of what makes this economy go. So we're living in a really kind of interesting time where the Fed almost feels like they're sort of the engine for the wealthy because the more they, you know, it's like they, they're just kind of out of touch.
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I was going to ask you that because don't rightly, don't super wealthy benefit when interest rates are high?
- [16:31]
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It depends. So it depends. It depends on what you're investing in. Right? So if you're wealthy, interest rates are high and you're sitting on a lot of cash, all you have to do is park it in the bank and say, oh, okay, I'm going to collect My, you know, my, whatever percent off of my capital, that's great. I don't even have to take risk. I just keep, you know. But your risk might be in that case that you've got such crazy inflation going on that even the rates they can pay you in a CD or in a Treasury might just not, or a muni bond might not actually equal what you could get in the market. The, the wealthy have benefited because what do companies do when rates go down? They invest capital and they build new things and they invest in people and they invest in factories, et cetera. And so if you're invested in those companies, I mean think about the Mag 7 companies. We actually, so I have a financial research company too as well called 76 research, which 76 is a playoff of 1776. And we just started coming out with what we call a mag7 monitor because this mag7 is so critical and so important and so much the future and direction of the country. Those companies benefit for sure when interest rates are lower because then frees up capital for them too. So look, it's, it's a tricky thing. What I would say in Donald Trump's favor is that he has made the right decisions on energy policy. And do not forget how big a deal energy is when it comes to the price of anything. You're out there in Wyoming, I'm in the New York area. If I want to get something to you, it's going to cost a lot and fortunately it's not going to cost as much as it did four years ago. Right. Because energy prices have come down significantly. You've now got gas less than $3, $3 a gallon. So I think that's a step in the right direction. Yeah.
- [18:22]
A
You know, take a look at this. This is CNN celebrating gas prices and it's just so ironic. I can't help but show it to you because I didn't think they'd celebrate anything good that's going on with regard to the Trump administration. Look at this.
- [18:32]
B
A fresh 4 1/2 year low, 3 1/2 year low of 295 a gallon as of today. That is miles away from the all time high set back in 2022 under former President Biden above $5 a gallon and it is lower, although only a little bit lower than at this point last year.
- [18:53]
A
Okay, so by the way, what did Trump do differently than Biden? Because you just mentioned like we're trading Venezuela. Like what is she talking about? Is this like a foreign policy? What is it?
- [19:07]
B
Because he's no this is not that hard.
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A
Is this the drill, baby?
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B
I mean, what is this? I honestly could not believe what Biden did because he got into office, first thing he does, okay, we're not gonna drill anywhere in the U.S. right, he's shutting down drilling everywhere he can. And then he goes into this thing with Ukraine and Russia and shuts off. They sanction Russian natural gas. Well, it's like one hand isn't talking to the other. Gillian, I don't care anybody's politics on this one. If you know that you're going to have a big thing coming with Russia and you're going to actually have to turn off the spigot for natural gas and you're going to say, okay, I'm going to sanction Russia. Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, you don't want to cut off all your energy here in the US like, you know, again, no one's talking to each other or communicating. So the State Department knew, okay, we got a problem here with Ukraine and Russia. We're probably going to have to move on that front. When they shut down any supply that would be coming out of Russia, that has an impact on prices, it drives prices higher because you're taking that energy off of the market. And then simultaneously you take the US Energy effectively off the market. And what energy company wants to invest in new resources here in the US Knowing that the Biden administration is not going to allow you to drill. So that was just a double whammy. Like that was. That was a complete screw up. And they, you know, in terms of Venezuela right now, look, I've spent a lot of time in Venezuela and I've been to what's known as the Orinoco region. And the Orinoco region is home to the largest oil reserves outside of all of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is the only one that would rival it. And we have been kicked out of Venezuela. Chavez kicked us out years ago. Maduro has run the country into the ground. They have so much oil there, they're sitting on it. They don't know how to get it out of the ground. I'll tell you, I held it, I remember this, this coffee cup full of oil and turned it upside down and none of it came out because it's just tar. It's like heavy, heavy tar. So if you had better technology and the Europeans used to be there, there's an energy company called Total. We used to be there. And now, you know, nobody can be there anymore because Maduro doesn't want it. And so I know that they're talking about this being about fentanyl and this, that and the other. But I can't help but wonder to a certain extent if it's also about the fact that this is a valuable resource. And guess who's been hang out there. I heard that the second language after Spanish that you hear in Caracas these days is Russian. So you get the Russians, you get the Iranians, you get the Chinese, all right there. And if you go back to the Monroe Doctrine, we've got our western hemisphere and they're all hanging out three hours from Miami and in a place that's home to the largest oil reserves outside of Saudi Arabia. So I'm just putting two and two together. And I have a feeling that we probably want a change of regime which we've pushed for aggressively and have not gotten. And the people desperately want it. They actually voted Maduro out. So we'll see what's coming.
- [22:06]
A
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B
So I just thank you for a little.
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A
And so honestly, no, no, no. It was pure heaven. And you went exactly where? To the area I was going to lead you to regardless. Because as an outsider, you're watching what's going on with Venezuela and you're Going, well, like, I'm not a genius, but Mexico is our biggest fentanyl drug problem, and yet we're blowing up boats, you know, off the coast of Venezuela.
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B
Okay?
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A
And like, I get Maduro's a narco terrorist, but. And Finally Donald Trump Jr. Basically admitted it. And I thought, but, like, just say it. Just explain to people, you know, those $7 gas prices in California, okay? We're not going to put boots on the ground. This guy is an absolute monster. We've got really good intelligence about who's on the boat, and this is what's funding Maduro. We're trying to pressure him to get out, and this is our end game. I just think even if I'm wrong about this and I don't fully understand it, this is not what I do. But I think people would have a better feeling about it if you explained, like, you are. Do you know how important energy prices are? Do you have any idea how that impacts every single purchase?
- [24:45]
B
I wonder. It's like, look, I mean, they'll tell you a lot of reasons for doing it. Maybe I'm just suspicious. Maybe I'm just a realist. I'm like, heck, why not have a good relationship with Venezuela? And if this one guy is in the way, can we not figure out a way to make nice? Maria Corona Machado, she was educated at Yale and she is somebody who would do business with us, and she would probably be a heck of a lot better for the people of Venezuela because she would.
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A
She's won the Peace Prize, right?
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B
Attracting capital. This is the Nobel Prize winner that was just collecting the Nobel Prize from Venezuela. Yes, of course.
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A
That's right.
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B
She's a big leader in the opposition party there, so, look, it makes sense. I don't know how that story plays in Peoria, as they say. And I remember early in my career, an oil analyst on Wall street saying to me, well, what do you think the Iraq war is about? Oil. It's oil. And I'm like, no, no, it's about, you know, it's weapons of mass destruction. The guy's like, no, it's about oil. And there's nothing wrong with that. We need oil. And I'm like, whoa. You know, so, I mean, you know.
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A
The problem is that it went so far south. That's the issue is that it was a forever war and we lost a bunch of young people, young Americans. And no.
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B
And that came.
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A
The concern is that people don't have the bandwidth to even hear it.
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B
They're like, regime change. Oh, my God.
- [26:17]
A
And I understand, but I just feel as though if we were completely transparent and we gave a game plan, an end game, explained the stakes, I think the administration would get more goodwill out of MAGA as well, because MAGA is done with the foreign wars. I think if, if it was better message to them just the way you did, how this is actually in America's best interest and not just the military industrial complex.
- [26:46]
B
Well, and, and from a national security perspective, honestly, like, do you really want China there? I mean, that. That's who's there. Do you really want the Iranians there? That's who's there. Do you really want Russia there? That's who's there. And so I, I think the national security issue is important as well. Like, it is our hemisphere. If, if we think about the Monroe Doctrine, we need to have control over our hemisphere. We don't want our enemies three hours away. And so I, I think that that's part of the reality of this situation as well. Again, I, I'm not. I hope this doesn't escalate as some people think it might, and we ought to be able to diversify ourselves in terms of having other energy sources, et cetera. But look, I mean, you think about AI in the future and you think about the grid, which, by the way, needs. All our grids need to be rebuilt, but you think about how much energy, Jillian, this is going to take. We need it, you know, and so that's why it does make sense in that case to think about drilling in the US and why. I'm saying it's not improbable when you look at the full scope of what's going on in Venezuela, just to, to think about why would we care about that country other than, okay, you know, Marco Rubio cares because, believe me, he's got to be in his bonnet about that because, you know, he's of Cuban descent. And the Cubans, you know, and the Venice that they've relied, basically, Venezuela and Cuba have relied on each other. And so there's a very sort of a strong sentiment, I would say, within the American Cuban community that we need to help the people of Venezuela so they're not living under this really oppressive socialist dictatorship. And there's that going on. But I would just say the American people are going to look at it and say, well, what's in it for me? And I think I know the answer. Yes, oil. Right.
- [28:34]
A
Right. Of course, there's. I'm gonna go off piece for just a second because I really want to understand what has happened to the tariff conversation, I don't hear anything about it anymore. Are deals done? Are they not done? Did it cost us jobs? Is it creating jobs? I should have brought it up when we discussed the jobs report. And I meant to, but I was so fascinated and, you know, ended up asking you other questions in other areas.
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B
No, no, no, it's fine.
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A
Where are we at with this? Do you agree with this? Is this good? Is this bad? Where are we netting out here?
- [29:06]
B
We actually put out a report at 76 Research about this as it was first going down. Our conclusion after we ran a whole series of numbers was it was going to be like, meh, you know, it actually wasn't going to have a huge effect one way or the other on the economy. Which, by the way, the Wall Street Journal just published a front. I sent it to my colleague at my company because I'm like, well, that's funny. Everybody's just come to the conclusion that we had in the beginning, which was, it's really not going to be a huge win or loss because ultimately it's just sort of. It's a fractional change. And you can offset that, by the way, by decreasing energy prices, by having smart energy policy that seeks to drill in the US Of A. So, look, I think from the standpoint that it gives us negotiating leverage, it's smart. I think the President has the ability to scare the H double L out of everyone. And so he's using. And this is very important. And I say this because I do a lot of regular news, obviously, on my show, and I do a lot of international news, a lot of domestic stuff, but I look at what the President has been able to accomplish on the international front, and I say, wow, you know, he's actually using financial tools to have outcomes in other things. And it's a really smart way of thinking about things because it's typically. I remember once having this argument with none other than John Bolton on Fox, because John had the idea that, you know, it was. I don't remember what it was, but he wanted to send troops somewhere. And I'm like, why? Because, like, just use sanctions, like, use financial tools. And he's like, what's that gonna do to the economy? And I'm like, I'd rather lose dollars than lives. And I think that this administration, because of Trump's business background and Scott Bessant, by the way, no joke, that guy is brilliant. He, like, took down the bank of England. Okay? He is really smart. He is our Treasury Secretary. He and Trump together are saying, okay, what do we need done in the world? Let's actually try and pressure these countries with financial pain in order to get it done. And that's, to me, better than using military options. And guess what else? Hey, you know, everybody's like, oh, you know, we did that deal with Argentina. Well, it was a credit swap deal, and we made money on it. Like, already we've made money on the spread. So we're now saying, hey, we like you, you like us. And so we're gonna help you, we're gonna help your country, and we're gonna do a deal that, by the way, we're gonna make a little money on, too. But we're not going to just give you money. We're going to. We're going to do a deal where, you know, you have to pay us back and we're going to make money on the spread, and we're only going to do it if we like you. So, you know, if you elect some other guy, they're not going to have the same kind of economic prosperity that they would. If, I mean, to me, again, like, you're using the financial tools that you have at your disposal, and you're, you're dispersing them to get the agenda that you want to accomplish. And hey, I'm sorry, Lula is not exactly who we want to be in business with there in Brazil. So, sorry, Lula, you know, we're not going to give you the same kind of deals as we're going to give the Argentine guy or now the new Chilean president is interesting. These countries are just flipping one after another, and you're seeing this move to the right and towards capitalism and away from socialism in Latin America, unlike any other time that we've seen in history. So it's pretty massive and it's pretty stunning. But it shows you the power of the almighty dollar, which for whatever reason, nobody choose to use. If you have, say, Maria Carina Machado running Venezuela one, it's good for the people because she's going to invite foreign capital in, they're going to get that oil out. It's good for us, right? And you have a chance for upward mobility in a country that once enjoyed it. I mean, they used to be a fair democracy and a capitalist system where actually they had the best quality education, the people were the most educated, enjoyed the highest standard of living in all of Latin America. And then Chavez comes along with all his socialist promises and drives it straight into the ground to the point where people are actually starving for food in Venezuela. So that is a Real problem. Well, if you have someone like Maria Corino Machado that we want to be in business with and she's going to, you know, like, it's a win win, if that makes sense to you. And I think that's just the reality of the real world. And we want friends in high places, so to speak.
- [33:34]
A
Got it.
- [33:34]
B
In our hemisphere.
- [33:37]
A
Question about the brics nations. My understanding of this is like a kindergartner, but basically you've got like Brazil, Russia, India, China that are somehow sidelining the dollar. Like, what is this? And is this a real threat? Is Trump making it worse or better? Because I've heard it can destroy our economy.
- [33:58]
B
Yeah, but what are you gonna go to? I mean, they all want the dollar, for goodness sakes. I mean, you're gonna buy things in, in the Chinese currency or the Brazilian currency. Like, nobody wants those currencies, really. I mean, honestly, it's still. The dollar's still supreme. The question is for how long? I think that's what you're getting at. Especially if we continue to lower interest rates and we just print and print and print and therefore have an inflationary environment. Look, we don't have inflation right now. If you had talked to me when we were looking at consumer prices growing upwards of 9% during the Biden administration, I would have said, Jillian, we have to stop printing. But we're in that sort of sweet spot right now. So I'm not as worried about inflation. As for the BRICs trying to get away from us, sure, of course they do. Of course they. I mean, just look at the gold that they've been buying up in the last couple of years. You look at the gold price increase, that's directly related to this, this desire for some of these other countries to diversify themselves away from the US Dollar. Why? Well, when Donald Trump is calling the shots and has the ability to freeze your accounts. Yeah, you kind of want to make sure that you're not just in US Dollars because you might be up a creek without a paddle. But there's this other thing going on called cryptos. Right. And bitcoin. Now, the administration is a little bit complicated, but basically the administration has done a really good job of getting in front of that one, too. And I'm fascinated by cryptos and bitcoin. I have ever since it ever first came on the scene. My husband's like, why didn't you buy it? And I'm like, it was too complicated. I couldn't figure out that whole hard wallet thing at the time. Anyway, eventually came around when you get these premonitions, Trish, I'm like, I tried it, but that one was really hard. You had to have the hard wallet. So I think that that also is an attempt for some of these countries to get around it. But still, when you look at how bitcoin is priced, it's still also priced in dollars. You actually have to have some stake in dollars in order to be in bitcoin. And so ultimately, I think the goal is to funnel it all still back to the U.S. treasury to keep, so to speak, king dollar going and going strong through, you know, the next hundred years. We're coming up on 250 years in America. We actually haven't been the world's reserve currency for that long. It's really just been in this post Bretton woods World War II era that, you know, it turned out we won the war and we had everyone's gold. We had the most gold. And we decided because of that, we were going to become the world's reserve currency. And we pegged our dollars to gold until we couldn't. Right? Until we couldn't. In the 70s, they. They moved away from that. But I'm actually not worried about, you know, I, I get it, but I'm not worried about China or Russia taking over, or Brazil or India for that matter, as the currency of choice, because I think ultimately everybody still wants to be in dollars. And even if you're in bitcoin, even if you're in gold in some way, shape or form, it's still coming back to dollars.
- [37:10]
A
I cannot tell you how much propaganda and rhetoric I have heard about this that has made me think the sky is falling and I have no knowledge of it the way you do. And you're like, now, now, now, now. And it's, it's staggering, though, the way we can be manipulated when we really don't have an understanding of it. Which is why I think podcasts like this and yours are so important. You bring up inflation. I want to show you this sot, apparently, that wages are outpacing inflation for the first time in front of.
- [37:43]
B
I'm glad you used the word. So I'm shocked. I'm glad. No, I'm learning the language. I'm glad you used the word. There's a TV term, my team, which is mostly a digital team on my show, I use the word sought with them all the time. And then finally, like, after three months, every single one of them came to me and said, by the way, like, what is sought? Oh, my gosh, you're so young, and you're like, you're not from tv. It's sound on tape. So for anybody listening, it's sound on tape. It's, like, almost as bad as an economic phrase.
- [38:14]
A
I just learned it recently because my producer kept putting like, SOT1, SOT2, and I was like, what is that? Like, sound on tape. Can we show these? Sound on tape. Real wages are up. So if you look at.
- [38:27]
B
If you look at wages, wages have been outpacing inflation.
- [38:30]
A
Wait, whatever measure you look at.
- [38:32]
B
And so when wages are going up, that's attractive for people to reenter the labor force. And in our view, that suggests that, you know, the economy is doing extremely well.
- [38:42]
A
Okay, okay, before you say anything, all I ever hear about is people saying that the price of food, homes, cars, et cetera, without even getting into interest rates and borrowing money is exponentially doubling, tripling, quadruple quadrupling, and people aren't making more money. I've even experienced this where I'm like, I'm not making more money. And that plane ticket is twice as much. That house is three times as much even. I'm like, all right, uncle, enough. This is insane. Is this suddenly turning around?
- [39:15]
B
Go anywhere, A hotel room? I'm like, I'm pretty sure we stayed at that exact same hotel for, like, 40% the cost. Pre Covid.
- [39:25]
A
Yes. The ticket across the country from LA to New York, business class was, like, 1800 bucks. And coach was like, 250, $300. No, coach is $700 and business classes, $4,000. And I sit in Coach. I'm a woman of the people. I'm like, no way, dude. I am not spending four grand. Get out of here. No way.
- [39:52]
B
Not to mention, even you try and use miles. The miles as well. Like, they'll charge you a gazillion miles. I'm like, but I used to buy this ticket for this many miles.
- [40:01]
A
Yeah, it's like, it used to be one way, 80,000 miles. Now it's 300,000 miles. So is this actually turning around? Or, like, are we going to start to notice a difference?
- [40:13]
B
Here's the bad news, all right? I know. We want it to go back to the prices that they were. Believe me, they can't. Because if that happens, then you're looking at a scenario, Gillian, called deflation. And deflation is really bad. Inflation's bad. Deflation is the really, really, really ugly stepchild whatever of inflation. You don't want deflation. Because what happens in a deflationary environment is nobody buys anything. They Just hoard. Because why would you, like, if I. If I know I can buy that car next month for 30% less, why would I buy it this month? Why would I buy anything? I'm just gonna. I'm gonna sit on my cash, and I'm not gonna move. And so I'm not gonna actually engage in the economy. So that is why it is the scariest situation. A lot of people have said to me, like, over the years, why. Why does the fed shoot for 2% inflation? Why do we even need 2% inflation? Why does anything have to go up? And the answer to that, sort of the textbook answer. And you can understand it when you think about it, if things aren't ever increasing in price, you're never incentivized to do anything today because we're all procrastinators. We can do it tomorrow when it's cheaper. So that's the sort of rationale. So here's where it gets scary, because, yeah, I remember hotel prices, airline prices, everything. Like, things are triple.
- [41:45]
A
It's insane. I'm sorry.
- [41:47]
B
I mean, the housing market.
- [41:48]
A
Go on.
- [41:49]
B
That could. You know, the house market is. Is. And look, we've been through a housing downturn before, so who's to say that you. You don't want a housing downturn only because a lot of majority of Americans actually have their savings right in their home. And so a big plunge in home prices leads to something like you saw in 2008. And we don't want to go down that path because that's. Trust me, been there, seen that, done that with that movie. Right.
- [42:15]
A
I just think of young kids trying to buy houses.
- [42:18]
B
It's hard.
- [42:18]
A
Yes, yes.
- [42:19]
B
I get it. Okay.
- [42:21]
A
I just think of, like, my brother, who is, like, 35, and he can't afford a house. And I'm thinking, like, this house that I bought in. I bought a place, a ranch in Malibu in 2015. And I hate to talk about numbers, but for, like, $3.6 million. Burned down, got rebuilt. It's now $20 million. I'm like, wait a minute.
- [42:47]
B
Hold on.
- [42:47]
A
I don't.
- [42:48]
B
Wow. Way to go, girl.
- [42:50]
A
I don't still own it. I actually ended up.
- [42:53]
B
She just sold it. She didn't own it. But I'm like, huh?
- [42:58]
A
I wish I did. After the fire, Newsom weaponized red tape to such an extreme degree, trying to clean up the property, I ended up selling the land. I was like, all right, Uncle. I can't deal with this anymore. I don't have the time to try to get permits to put a house back on this property. But I have followed the property and the point is simply like over the course of a decade, how did you get from 3 million to 20 million dollars? This is crazy. Like, kids are never. No wonder they're becoming radicalized and they're voting for mom. Donnie. Because if a house 10 years ago that was 3.6 is 20 million. Yeah, yeah, I guess I can see it, you know, and kinda, you know, and this is where I would say to you, Trish, last question, arguably the most important. You've been so generous with your time. What do you predict next year? What are we going to see for the economy, good or bad here?
- [43:55]
B
I think it's gonna be okay. I don't think it's gonna be a recession. I don't think it's gonna be like a blowout. Oh my gosh, 7% growth. Growth. By the way, Trump would love nothing more than pull out the GDP charts, right? And be like, check out that growth, Check out that growth. Everybody's going to learn the word gdp, gross domestic product, overall size of the economy. But I think we'll grow. I think it'll be okay. I do think that there will be an increasing disparity, unfortunately, between the haves and the have nots, which is why I know I sound like a Bronx broken record. I don't want to turn into Susie Orman here, but like, you gotta be investing, okay? Like you gotta be investing. Like I still, and I worked at cnbc, so I can say, but I remember her shot and like, why. I know, but she's not wrong. Like you do have to be investing and it's essential and you want to be in the future, right? Which like, I know a lot of people hate it and they don't believe in AI and they think it's going to ruin the society. But listen, you're either going to be in that or you're not. And so even if it's as simple as like the S&P 500, right, just buy the S&P 500 and be in it in some way, shape or form, because that's going to be the disparity. And I think you're going to risk this increase between the sort of working class and the investing class. And I don't know how we get away from that, that without turning to Mamdami. But we don't want to do that, right? Because then no one's going to actually, you're not going to have those companies to invest in. They're going to go Elsewhere. It's like he wants to regulate housing in New York. And it's like the more regulation you put in, the more you're going to drive a premium on housing, because no builder is going to want to come into New York City and build a new structure because then it's going to be subject to Mamdani's rules. So you're tightening supply when you do that. So it's a tricky scenario. But I just keep saying to people, invest, like, really put yourself and your family first and, and do what you can for the future that way. I mean, I like the markets because it's liquid, but real estate, you know, is another good example. As you pointed out. You've done that. But I, you know, I like the liquidity that you have meaning, you know, if you need to. You should never sell. You should never sell. Not until you know the moment that you have to. And never sell in a panic. But you do want to be taking advantage of all those opportunities.
- [46:22]
A
Okay, very last question, I promise. You brought up the s and P500. People ask me, like, what can someone do in the new year? And we've got what I call the big rocks, right? Like, simple things you can do that will have a massive impact on your wellness. When it comes to investing, it's like invest, and it's intimidating as hell. Is the s and P500, the big rock, in other words? Like someone told me that once that it beats Warren Buffett's. Only beat it a few times. You put your money in the S&P 500 and that's a big rock. And you don't have to be Trish Regan, if that makes any sense. Or is that just kind of.
- [46:59]
B
Yeah, no, I think that that's sort of, you know, you should start there. I mean, we, I get that it's hard for people, but the reality is you don't need a fancy fund manager picking your stocks. I mean, we, we put out the 76 report at my company, and it's like 9.95amonth. So. Shameless plug. But just because we're talking about markets and investing. But the whole idea is I, you know, and actually the whole idea is to try and demystify it in that sense and, and to give people ideas and research that they can work off of. But I think bottom line, like, if you're not going to do anything, if you're not going to like, investigate any company, and when you're, when you're going into individual companies, think of that as sort of the ICING on the cake. What should be your bread and butter. You want that sort of, you know, set up portfolio where you are in the S P and you are in some bonds and you're playing it sort of safe and steady and then you can kind of cherry pick. Well, these are my opportunities. You know, if I bought Nvidia, people say to me, you know, back when you guys were telling me to buy Nvidia, I'd be sitting pretty right now. Well, okay, but if you're in the S P, guess what? You're getting Nvidia. So at least you're exposed to it in some way. So I, I would start there and then sort of branch out. But, but, you know, be and be aware, right? Jillian, like, everybody has a different timetable and a different risk analysis. And you've got to take that into consideration. How much are you willing when like, you know, what hits the fan to just sit there and say, I'm going to ride this one out and I have the time to ride this one out and I'm not going to like completely freak out and just sell everything immediately. I mean, when, you know, Trump announced his tariffs and everybody freaked out, yours truly bought more. That paid off, right? But I'm like, I've seen this over and over again through my career. The media like distorts everything. The media goes crazy. CNBC gets their ratings. I mean, our best ratings days were always when there was tons of red on the screen, right? When, when the market starts to tank, that's their plane crash. For the financial media, and they're never ahead of the curve because they don't want to be right. You've got to be like, right on the news curve. And so as an investor, you need to be ahead of the curve. You need to be thinking about how is the media characterizing this and how are they, how are they getting it wrong so that I can get it right?
- [49:15]
A
Got it. Trish, you're magnificent. Can you tell everybody where can they get the 76 report? Where can they find your show? Where can they learn all of these things? Because your financial health is actually directly tied to your, your physical health. When your financial health is poorer, it truly makes you ill from stress. And how do people take care of their financial health?
- [49:37]
B
Well, live within your means. That's another sort of piece of advice. Always live within your means. Learn to be content to not just want, want, want, right? We're such a materialistic culture and you really just have to say like, this is what makes me happy. And financial security should be part of what makes you happy, knowing that you don't have to stress over stuff. I think that's, like, really, really important. And investing for your future is a critical part of that. I mean, so we talk a lot of politics and some economics on my show, which is the Trish Regan show, and we are on Spotify and we are on YouTube and all those great places. I'd love to have folks over there and live every day. And then 76Research.com is my financial research company where you can get a little bit more nitty gritty in terms of what I'm thinking about the markets and what companies I like or don't like, that kind of thing. And so. So those are the two places I'd encourage people to go.
- [50:32]
A
Thank you so, so much. I really appreciate it. I'm signing up for the 76 report right now.
- [50:37]
B
Oh, you're very sweet. Thank you. Jillian.
- [50:39]
A
Thank you so much for watching. If you enjoyed the podcast, please, like, comment, subscribe and share. And make sure to let me know what guests you want to see on in the future.