Kermode & Mayo’s Take

Episode: Take Ultra Preview – A Look Ahead to the Oscars

Date: March 9, 2026

Hosts: Mark Kermode & Simon Mayo
Special Co-host: Paul (full name not specified in transcript)

Episode Overview

Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo, joined by Paul, dive deep into the state of the Oscars race leading up to the ceremony on March 15, 2026. They focus on the major award categories, analyzing how recent results—especially the BAFTAs—have shaken up predictions. The conversation is lively, full of humorous asides, memorable quotes, and some classic Kermode & Mayo banter, as well as detours into wine chat and comedy commentary.

Oscars Race Breakdown

Best Picture

Main contenders:

• Sinners (16 nominations, Oscar history record)
• One Battle After Another

Key Discussion:

• The BAFTAs did not decisively settle the race but "softened Chalamet’s lead."
• Variety still projects Sinners as the likely overall winner, but consensus tips toward One Battle After Another for Best Picture.

Quote (Mark, 00:32):

"Best picture—closest race in years. Two films dominate everything. Sinners. Sixteen nominations, the most in Oscar history. One battle after another."

Prediction (Paul, 01:18):

"I do think it's going to be One Battle After Another...I think it is going to be close but I think it is going to be one battle after another."

Best Director

Strong favorite:

• Paul Thomas Anderson

Reasoning:

• "It's his time" - the hosts agree it feels overdue for Anderson, and odds strongly support it.

Quote (Paul, 01:52):

"It is Paul Thomas Anderson. And not least because it's his time. It feels very much like his time."

Best Actor

Front runner:

• Timothée Chalamet (Sinners)

Context:

• Lost BAFTA to Robert Aramayo (not Oscar eligible), but this does not affect Oscar outcome.
• Chalamet expected to become the youngest winner since Adrien Brody.

Quote (Mark, 02:34):

"Chalamet… was the pre-BAFTA front runner as you said. Lost to Robert Aramayo who isn't Oscar eligible...Momentum has dipped, but he remains the likeliest winner."

Memorable Moment (Paul, 02:51):

"I was in the room when Robert Haramire won, and it was… I literally kind of jumped out of my seat with surprise… Timothée Chalamet, God bless him, was laughing..."

Best Actress

Main contenders:

• Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
• Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You)

Consensus:

• Strong prediction for Jessie Buckley as the winner (industry buzz and post-BAFTA "chatter" reinforce this).

Quote (Mark, 04:14):

"Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, which is Newsweek's predicted winner...I just think it's Jessie Buckley."

Paul, 04:32:

"It's been Jessie Buckley all the way. Rose Byrne is absolutely brilliant...but this is just...Jessie Buckley's award."

Best Supporting Actor

Key players:

• Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
• Benicio Del Toro (same movie)
• Stellan Skarsgård (outside shot)

Prediction:

• Likely Sean Penn, but Stellan Skarsgård is a real second contender. Benicio Del Toro "is not really in the running."

Quote (Paul, 05:42):

"It may well and very probably will be Sean Penn, but if it isn't...I would put money on Stellan Skarsgård."

Best Supporting Actress

State:

• Virtually impossible to call; the most open category.

Odds (as of recording):

• Tiana Taylor: 39%
• Amy Madigan: 36%
• Wunmi Mosaku: 22%
• No clear front-runner per hosts

Quote (Paul, 06:17):

"This is what you call a live crime scene. This is an ongoing investigation and I don't think you can call it at all..."

Screenplay & Score

• Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson (lock, 92% odds)
• Best Original Screenplay: Sinners (95% favorite)
• Best Score:
  • Sinners to win (95%)
  • Host personal preference: Johnny Greenwood (One Battle After Another)

Quote (Paul, 07:05):

"Sinners will win for best score, I think actually it should be Johnny Greenwood for One Battle After Another. But it won't be because this is the year that Sinners... is going to win best score."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ethan Hawke's Reaction at the BAFTAs (Mark/Paul, 03:39–04:13):

  • Ethan Hawke seen reacting warmly when Robert Aramayo won.
  • "He doesn't say it for the audience to see, but it clearly says, 'better than winning.'"

• Joking About Category Difficulty (Mark, 04:45):

  "If you're going to be certain about one award, surely this is the..."
  Paul, 04:47:
  "That's it. ...The supporting categories, I think, are much harder to call."

• On the Nature of the Supporting Actress Race (Paul, 06:17):

  "If you're a betting person, stay away."

Additional Banter and Listener Emails

Australian Fine Wine Tangent (07:25–09:05)

• Listener asks if the hosts are producing wine, joking about a potential link to Francis Ford Coppola.
• Mark and Paul riff about a new, much-sought-after Australian wine, "Vanguard East," pretending involvement in its production.

Quote (Paul, 08:27):

"We're coining it."

Quote (Mark, 08:38):

"This new, much sought after Australian fine wine is £59 for three…And yes, we are intimately involved and obviously that's the new branch that we're moving into."

Saturday Night Live Commentary (09:08–09:41)

• Listener calls out a tasteless SNL skit.
• Paul criticizes SNL for being past its prime and out of touch.

Quote (Paul, 09:30):

"Well, Saturday Night Live is very long way past its prime. I mean, it's nobody. Nobody thinks we're living in the golden age of SNL."

Closing Wine/Banter (09:41–10:31)

• More wine rhapsodizing, references to Monty Python's "Australian Winos" sketch.
• Good-humored wine notes:

  "Palette sits in a beautiful midweight zone with concentrated blueberry, red currant and a touch of cola on the mid palate." (Mark, 10:09)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oscar Best Picture race: 00:32–01:45
• Best Director: 01:45–02:22
• Best Actor: 02:22–03:29
• Ethan Hawke BAFTAs moment: 03:29–04:13
• Best Actress: 04:14–04:47
• Best Supporting Actor: 04:53–05:55
• Best Supporting Actress: 06:00–06:40
• Screenplay and Score: 06:40–07:25
• Wine Society listener question: 07:25–09:05
• SNL/Comedy critique: 09:08–09:41
• Closing wine and Monty Python banter: 09:41–10:31

Takeaway

This Oscars preview episode is rich in industry insight, playful humor, and lively disagreement. Every major category is analyzed, with hosts staking their claims and explaining the ripple effects of the BAFTAs, all interspersed with trademark tangents on fine wine and classic comedy. The episode is a must-listen for film fans eager to have their Oscar ballots bolstered by expert, entertaining analysis and to enjoy a taste of the Kermode & Mayo rapport.