Take Ultra preview - A look ahead to the Oscars

Summary

Kermode & Mayo’s Take

Episode: Take Ultra Preview – A Look Ahead to the Oscars

Date: March 9, 2026

Hosts: Mark Kermode & Simon Mayo
Special Co-host: Paul (full name not specified in transcript)

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Episode Overview

Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo, joined by Paul, dive deep into the state of the Oscars race leading up to the ceremony on March 15, 2026. They focus on the major award categories, analyzing how recent results—especially the BAFTAs—have shaken up predictions. The conversation is lively, full of humorous asides, memorable quotes, and some classic Kermode & Mayo banter, as well as detours into wine chat and comedy commentary.

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Oscars Race Breakdown

Best Picture

Main contenders:

• Sinners (16 nominations, Oscar history record)
• One Battle After Another

Key Discussion:

• The BAFTAs did not decisively settle the race but "softened Chalamet’s lead."
• Variety still projects Sinners as the likely overall winner, but consensus tips toward One Battle After Another for Best Picture.

Quote (Mark, 00:32):

"Best picture—closest race in years. Two films dominate everything. Sinners. Sixteen nominations, the most in Oscar history. One battle after another."

Prediction (Paul, 01:18):

"I do think it's going to be One Battle After Another...I think it is going to be close but I think it is going to be one battle after another."

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Best Director

Strong favorite:

• Paul Thomas Anderson

Reasoning:

• "It's his time" - the hosts agree it feels overdue for Anderson, and odds strongly support it.

Quote (Paul, 01:52):

"It is Paul Thomas Anderson. And not least because it's his time. It feels very much like his time."

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Best Actor

Front runner:

• Timothée Chalamet (Sinners)

Context:

• Lost BAFTA to Robert Aramayo (not Oscar eligible), but this does not affect Oscar outcome.
• Chalamet expected to become the youngest winner since Adrien Brody.

Quote (Mark, 02:34):

"Chalamet… was the pre-BAFTA front runner as you said. Lost to Robert Aramayo who isn't Oscar eligible...Momentum has dipped, but he remains the likeliest winner."

Memorable Moment (Paul, 02:51):

"I was in the room when Robert Haramire won, and it was… I literally kind of jumped out of my seat with surprise… Timothée Chalamet, God bless him, was laughing..."

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Best Actress

Main contenders:

• Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
• Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You)

Consensus:

• Strong prediction for Jessie Buckley as the winner (industry buzz and post-BAFTA "chatter" reinforce this).

Quote (Mark, 04:14):

"Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, which is Newsweek's predicted winner...I just think it's Jessie Buckley."

Paul, 04:32:

"It's been Jessie Buckley all the way. Rose Byrne is absolutely brilliant...but this is just...Jessie Buckley's award."

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Best Supporting Actor

Key players:

• Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
• Benicio Del Toro (same movie)
• Stellan Skarsgård (outside shot)

Prediction:

• Likely Sean Penn, but Stellan Skarsgård is a real second contender. Benicio Del Toro "is not really in the running."

Quote (Paul, 05:42):

"It may well and very probably will be Sean Penn, but if it isn't...I would put money on Stellan Skarsgård."

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Best Supporting Actress

State:

• Virtually impossible to call; the most open category.

Odds (as of recording):

• Tiana Taylor: 39%
• Amy Madigan: 36%
• Wunmi Mosaku: 22%
• No clear front-runner per hosts

Quote (Paul, 06:17):

"This is what you call a live crime scene. This is an ongoing investigation and I don't think you can call it at all..."

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Screenplay & Score

• Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson (lock, 92% odds)
• Best Original Screenplay: Sinners (95% favorite)
• Best Score:
  • Sinners to win (95%)
  • Host personal preference: Johnny Greenwood (One Battle After Another)

Quote (Paul, 07:05):

"Sinners will win for best score, I think actually it should be Johnny Greenwood for One Battle After Another. But it won't be because this is the year that Sinners... is going to win best score."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ethan Hawke's Reaction at the BAFTAs (Mark/Paul, 03:39–04:13):

  • Ethan Hawke seen reacting warmly when Robert Aramayo won.
  • "He doesn't say it for the audience to see, but it clearly says, 'better than winning.'"

• Joking About Category Difficulty (Mark, 04:45):

  "If you're going to be certain about one award, surely this is the..."
  Paul, 04:47:
  "That's it. ...The supporting categories, I think, are much harder to call."

• On the Nature of the Supporting Actress Race (Paul, 06:17):

  "If you're a betting person, stay away."

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Additional Banter and Listener Emails

Australian Fine Wine Tangent (07:25–09:05)

• Listener asks if the hosts are producing wine, joking about a potential link to Francis Ford Coppola.
• Mark and Paul riff about a new, much-sought-after Australian wine, "Vanguard East," pretending involvement in its production.

Quote (Paul, 08:27):

"We're coining it."

Quote (Mark, 08:38):

"This new, much sought after Australian fine wine is £59 for three…And yes, we are intimately involved and obviously that's the new branch that we're moving into."

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Saturday Night Live Commentary (09:08–09:41)

• Listener calls out a tasteless SNL skit.
• Paul criticizes SNL for being past its prime and out of touch.

Quote (Paul, 09:30):

"Well, Saturday Night Live is very long way past its prime. I mean, it's nobody. Nobody thinks we're living in the golden age of SNL."

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Closing Wine/Banter (09:41–10:31)

• More wine rhapsodizing, references to Monty Python's "Australian Winos" sketch.
• Good-humored wine notes:

  "Palette sits in a beautiful midweight zone with concentrated blueberry, red currant and a touch of cola on the mid palate." (Mark, 10:09)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oscar Best Picture race: 00:32–01:45
• Best Director: 01:45–02:22
• Best Actor: 02:22–03:29
• Ethan Hawke BAFTAs moment: 03:29–04:13
• Best Actress: 04:14–04:47
• Best Supporting Actor: 04:53–05:55
• Best Supporting Actress: 06:00–06:40
• Screenplay and Score: 06:40–07:25
• Wine Society listener question: 07:25–09:05
• SNL/Comedy critique: 09:08–09:41
• Closing wine and Monty Python banter: 09:41–10:31

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Takeaway

This Oscars preview episode is rich in industry insight, playful humor, and lively disagreement. Every major category is analyzed, with hosts staking their claims and explaining the ripple effects of the BAFTAs, all interspersed with trademark tangents on fine wine and classic comedy. The episode is a must-listen for film fans eager to have their Oscar ballots bolstered by expert, entertaining analysis and to enjoy a taste of the Kermode & Mayo rapport.

Transcript

[Mark]

So awards, SHM awards. Does that have its own little bit of video? I don't think it does because we can't do this very often.

[Paul]

So I'm just a bit of jazz hands.

[Mark]

Money. Bit of jazz hands.

[Paul]

Hello.

[Mark]

It's a FaceTime with the family. It's the last take ultra before the Oscars which are happening on Sunday, March 15. So state of the race then. Post BAFTA shake up. Final Oscar voting is underway right now which ends on March 5th. So tomorrow. And the BAFTAs have significantly stirred the pot. So Mark will probably say maybe they.

[Paul]

Or has it or has it.

[Mark]

Mark will say who will win and who should win. So first of all, Best picture, closest race in years. Two films dominate everything. Sinners. Sixteen nominations, the most in Oscar history. One battle after another. Long term critical thinking. Favorite Indiewire said the baftas did not resolve the battle but they softened Chalamet's lead losing at the baftas.

[Paul]

I don't think they did because he, he, he lost to Robert Aramayo who's not in the running for the Oscars. So I don't think they did soften. Sorry.

[Mark]

Variety still projects Sinners as the most likely overall winner. Tally and Entertainment Weekly I think that is suggest the race is genuinely split but leaning slightly towards one battle after another.

[Paul]

So best picture, I do think it's going to be one battle after another. Do you say Variety said that they think that it's going to win this category or they think that it's going to win the most awards?

[Mark]

Most overall.

[Paul]

Most overall. Okay, that's fine. I think that One battle after another has had a long enough tail on it that I think that it is going to be, that it is going to be close but I think it is going to be one battle after another.

[Mark]

Okay, Best director is basically Paul Thomas Anderson. Yeah, it is Paul.

[Paul]

It is Paul Thomas Anderson. And not least because it's his time. It feels very much like his time. Now again we always say this with Oscars. It's always possible that there are upsets and surprises. However, odds checkers are increasingly accurate and I, Paul, Thomas Anson has been ahead of this for such a long time. I think, I think it's his.

[Mark]

Okay, Best actor Chalamet still leads. Yeah. From Marty Supreme.

[Paul]

Yeah.

[Mark]

He was the pre BAFTA front runner as you said. Lost to Robert Aramayo who isn't Oscar eligible.

[Paul]

No.

[Mark]

Indiewire has said it's one of the more nerve wracking, nerve wracking results of the night. Still predicting Newsweek, still predicting that Chalamet will win yeah. Poised to become the youngest winner since Adrien Brody. Momentum has dipped, but he remains the likeliest winner. What do you think?

[Paul]

I mean, I. Well, I. I think that we have to be absolutely clear that the BAFTAs do. Do not have any effect in this category at all, because the baftas had a. It's one of the things that I love about the baftas is when they have a battle that is completely nothing to do with what's happening on the other side of the Atlantic. Because, you know, I was in the room when Robert Haramire won, and it was. I literally kind of jumped out of my seat with surprise. I mean, it was great. I thought it was terrific. And Timothy Chalamet, God bless him, was laughing because. Partly because he, you know, because he doesn't lose anything. For him not to have won the bafta, I think. I think he's. Yeah, I would be very surprised if he doesn't win the Oscar.

[Mark]

If I remembered this right, there was a cutaway to Ethan Hawke, the baftas, when Robert Aramao won and he gave it.

[Paul]

And he.

[Mark]

He was talking about Ethan Hawke visiting his drama school. Yes. He sees.

[Paul]

And he's credited him with his career,

[Mark]

credit him with a whole bunch of stuff. And then you can. Then Ethan. Or leans to whoever is next to him and you can quite clearly see that he says, that is better.

[Paul]

Better than winning the award. That's right. Exactly. He does. And. And what, What. What a wonderful moment. What a wonderful moment. That it was captured on camera and that he wasn't saying it performatively because he does say it to the person next to him. He doesn't say it for the audience to see, but it clearly says better than winning.

[Mark]

Best Actress dominated by two performances. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, which is Newsweek's predicted winner. Rose Byrne. If I had legs, I'd kick you. BAFTA effect here. Buckley's standing strengthened across the industry. CHATTER post ceremony But I just think it's Jesse Buckley and that.

[Paul]

Yeah, I think it's Jesse Buckley. I think it's been Jesse Buckley all the way. I think Rose Byrne is absolutely brilliant. And if I had legs, I'd kick you. I think she. She's deserving of every prize going. But this is just. This is Jessie Buckley's award. Absolutely. And she's.

[Mark]

If you're going to be certain about one award, surely this is the.

[Paul]

That's it. That's. That's the one. It's the. The supporting categories, I think, are much harder to call.

[Mark]

So Best Supporting Actor, two standout performances from the same film splitting most conversations. Sean Penn one battle after another and Benicio Del Toro for the same movie. But then you're gonna. Then you split the votes.

[Paul]

Yeah, I think. Yeah, but I think Benicio Del Toro is not actually. I mean, all. I think he's not. He's not gonna. He's not going to beat Sean Penn. That's not going to happen. If it's not Sean Penny, it's going to be Stalin Skarsgard, who is really the other. The other contender in this.

[Mark]

And then grandfather of Peter Sarsgaard, as you remember.

[Paul]

Yes, he's a grandfather. Yeah, that's right.

[Mark]

And the great grandmother for Maggie Gyllenhaal and.

[Paul]

And of Robin Starstead, who did you know. Where'd you go to anyway, whatever it was.

[Mark]

Peter Sarstedt and Robin.

[Paul]

Yes. So I. I think it's not going to be Benicio Del Toro. It may well and very probably will be Sean Penn, but if it isn't Sean Penn, I would put money on Stalin Skarsgard being. Being the second one. Benicio is not really in the running for this.

[Mark]

Best Supporting Actress. No category has less consensus.

[Paul]

No. And this is the one that is actually impossible to call.

[Mark]

Okay, so we've got Tiana Taylor, 39% chance of winning. Amy Madigan, 36. Woodmi Masaku, 22%. So it's an elf hunning. I've got no figures next to L. No.

[Paul]

Well, interestingly, odds checker now has Amy Madigan very slightly in the lead. So this is what you call a live crime scene. This is an ongoing investigation and I don't think you can call it at all. I absolutely think this is the one that it is impossible to call. I think the other ones, there is some great certainty, but I think in this, if you're a betting person, stay away.

[Mark]

Okay. And our final two are pretty nail on, I would think. Best Adapted Screenplay, Paul Thomas Anderson is overwhelmingly expected to win. He's got like 92%.

[Paul]

Yeah. He's not going home without an Oscar. Go.

[Mark]

And Best Original screen screenplay, sinners, 95% chance of winning Broadsport across Academy. Yes. Members.

[Paul]

And that I think, again, is an absolute lock. In the same way that Sinners will win for best score, I think actually it should be Johnny Greenwood for one battle after another. But it won't be because this is the year that Sinners, which is a film that tells so much of its story through music. Is it. Would it. It's going to win best score.

[Mark]

Ian Gail has been in touch.

[Paul]

Yes.

[Mark]

He Says, are you producing wine now? Please say you're not being advised by Francis Ford Coppola. Best regards and hello to Fairport Convention, Jeremy Irons and all lovers of anything, Douglas Adams. This is because. From the Wine Society. Yeah. Very nice people. They have the first release of their Vanguard east for 2024. 2025, really sought after Australian fine wine. The 2024 V. Don't get that word marks the. Yes, it's called Vanguard east, but that's

[Paul]

what the V's for.

[Mark]

No, then there's no. It's the bit I can't get. I think the word is Mou vedre marks the return of a wine that many consider the greatest varietal expression of the grape in Australia. Matured in foudre. Don't know what that is. This is a true journey of a wine which is layered, compelling and a fitting farewell to a much loved vanguardiste Express. So the answer to your question is yes, we are. Absolutely. This is us.

[Paul]

We're coining it. We're coining it.

[Mark]

We. Mark, when he was in Australia recently, you. You were cultivating the grapes. Weren't you there for the.

[Paul]

That's right, yes. I was treading the grapes, in fact.

[Mark]

And so this new, much sought after Australian fine wine is £59 for three. It's a red wine. And yes, we are intimately involved and obviously that's the new branch that we're moving into. Are we planning to do a white wine? Are we just going to stay with red?

[Paul]

Well, I like a white wine, you know, I like a. I like a Pinot Grigio, so that, you know, so

[Mark]

look out for that. But that'll be a Vanguardista white. But this is just the Vanguard East, Ian. Yes, that's our new.

[Paul]

I thought we should get away with

[Mark]

it, but obviously we've been.

[Paul]

Can I read a comment that's here on the thing? This is from Makashima. Saturday Night Live did a very bad taste skit about Tourette's and blaming doing bad things at work on it. Yes, they did. And they are one of several American comedy things that have sought to find this funny. And shame on them.

[Mark]

Yeah, I've never got the Saturday Night Live thing, I must say.

[Paul]

Well, Saturday Night Live is very long way past its prime. I mean, it's nobody. Nobody thinks we're living in the golden age of snl. People now think it's still going, you know.

[Mark]

Thank you to Jason Marsden, who messages to, say, Aussie wines. Well, some are for laying down and avoiding and avoiding. And some should be only used for hand to hand combat. Well, the vanguard east, I think, is going to be the exception to the rule and is going to be like a true journey of wine led, compelling, and a fitting farewell. The palette sits in a beautiful midweight zone with concentrated blueberry red currant and a touch of cola on the mid palate. Remember that when you're sampling our wares.

[Paul]

And also if you, if you haven't listened to it for a long time, the Australian Wino Society sketch, the Python sketch that you're, you know, this is laying down and avoiding, is still hilarious, despite the fact that since it was first invented, recorded Australian wine has become a thing.

[Mark]

Yes.

[Paul]

And so the whole idea now, it just made people go, why are they laughing at Australian wine?

[Mark]

Yes. Which is fantastic.