Kibbe on Liberty — Ep 358 | “Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Be a Huge Mistake”

Host: Matt Kibbe
Guest: Brandan Buck, Foreign Policy Research Fellow at the Cato Institute
Date: October 31, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the controversy over the Trump administration’s saber rattling toward military intervention in Venezuela, questioning the rationale and historical wisdom behind U.S. regime change efforts. Matt Kibbe and Brandan Buck candidly explore the dangers, unintended consequences, and precedents such interventions set for U.S. foreign policy, drawing on Buck’s unique perspective as a military veteran and libertarian foreign policy analyst.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Manufactured Case for Intervention

• Propaganda and Drug War Rationale
  The Trump administration and certain policymakers like Marco Rubio justify potential military action in Venezuela by claiming involvement in transnational fentanyl trafficking.
  • Quote (Buck, 02:36):
    “The idea that there is some fentanyl pipeline running itself out of Venezuela that can be easily closed by interdiction—lethal interdiction, I might say—by the US Navy is absurd.”
    • The majority of fentanyl in the U.S. comes from Mexico, China, or is made domestically, not from Venezuela.
    • The administration continually moves the goalposts, sometimes shifting to “cocaine” to justify intervention instead.

2. Precedent and Legal Concerns

• Unilateral Executive Power and the War Machine
  Kibbe and Buck express alarm at how easily the executive branch sidesteps congressional authority for military action.
  • Quote (Buck, 04:13):
    “Here there is no authorization for use of military force... This is just being done without any kind of top cover from Congress.”
    • Trump designated cartels as terrorist organizations, creating a new, untested legal pretext for kinetic action.
    • The eventual aim may be to lay groundwork for a much larger war.

3. The Politics of War — Neocon Influence vs. “America First”

• Buck breaks the administration into “three camps” regarding Venezuela:
  1. Traditional neocons (Rubio, South Florida hawks)
  2. Drug war hardliners
  3. “Great power competition” types, eager to demonstrate U.S. strength
  • Quote (Buck, 06:38):
    “With Venezuela... that roadblock [to military action] has been lifted.”

4. False Precision: Intelligence and Strikes on Alleged ‘Narco-Terror’ Boats

• Kibbe questions the reliability of intelligence behind these “targeted strikes.”
  • Quote (Buck, 09:17):
    “You never really know who they are... If they were so confident... they wouldn’t have turned some of these survivors over to foreign authorities for prosecution as they did one guy.”
    • Survivors handed to Ecuador and Colombia were not prosecuted due to lack of evidence.

5. Why Drug War Logic Fails (Again)

• Kibbe and Buck critique the longstanding failure of the drug war to solve anything — either abroad or at the U.S. border.
  • Quote (Buck, 13:06):
    “There’s this notion that if we just throw force at Venezuela, we can somehow break up these networks. I don’t see where they’re thinking... these networks will not regenerate.”

6. The U.S. Track Record in Latin America

• Kibbe reviews U.S. interference in Venezuela and its role in setting up populist strongmen like Hugo Chávez and Maduro.
• Buck gives a historical overview, noting how U.S. occupations in Latin America resulted in “buyer’s remorse” and failed state-building.
  • Quote (Buck, 16:15):
    “At the end of [the Banana Wars], Uncle Sam got tired... There was a significant amount of buyer's remorse.”

7. Covert Action Undermines Democracy

• Attempts to support opposition movements with CIA/USAID funding typically backfire, providing authoritarian regimes a narrative of U.S. meddling.
  • Quote (Buck, 19:11):
    “The more we intervene, the more the image of the Yankee invader feeds politics like Maduro.”

8. “Advocates of War Never Pay the Price”

• Kibbe: The costs of war are always borne by average people either in the target country or at home, not the policymakers.
  • Quote (Kibbe, 23:43):
    “The advocates of war never pay the price for war... The people that die... are not the people that make the decisions.”

9. The Fiscal Black Hole of Intervention

• Foreign wars are incompatible with any real form of fiscal conservatism.
  • Quote (Kibbe, 25:25):
    “If you’re fully funding the war on terror, that’s a black hole. You can’t pour enough money into that hole.”

10. Regime Change as Doomed Central Planning

• An ideological critique: Regime change is the ultimate “central planning” fantasy, inevitably failing due to complexity and ignorance of local realities.
  • Quote (Kibbe, 40:15):
    “Regime change is fundamentally a form of central planning... If you have at least enough understanding about what you don’t understand ... you couldn’t possibly know enough to centrally reorganize a society...”

11. The Trap of ‘Do Something Bias’ in Foreign Policy

• Both note the inconsistency of conservatives scoffing at central planning domestically, but insisting upon it in international affairs.
  • Quote (Buck, 41:12): “Sometimes you don’t have to [do something]. The world is a dark place. It’s full of tragedy, it’s full of trade offs.”

12. Predictions and Cautious Hope

• Kibbe presses Buck for a forecast: Will Trump go to war with Venezuela?
  • Quote (Buck, 44:14): “Moving of the carrier strike group into the Caribbean is kind of a bad omen... Last time we did that, the United States invaded Grenada.”
  • Buck doesn’t commit to a definitive prediction, but warns the signs are troubling.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Exchanges

• Kibbe (05:47):
  “We’ve probably crossed the Rubio Rubicon.”
  (Tongue-in-cheek noting Sen. Marco Rubio’s push for intervention.)

• Buck (13:06): “There’s this notion that … if we just kill these people rather than interdict them and arrest them, somehow this is going to create deterrence and they’ll stop coming. Well, what are we in now, 12 boats in? I’m starting to lose count. Apparently deterrence is yet to be established.”

• Buck (19:11):
  “The more we intervene, the more the image of the Yankee invader feeds politics like Maduro.”

• Kibbe (23:43): “The advocates of war never pay the price for war … The people that die and the people that pay either financially or with their lives are not the people that make the decisions.”

• Kibbe (40:15): “Regime change is fundamentally a form of central planning … If you have at least enough understanding about what you don’t understand about Afghanistan, you couldn’t possibly know enough to centrally reorganize a society…”

Important Timestamps

• 01:47 — Introduction of Brandon Buck and recent article warning against regime change.
• 02:36 — Dismantling the “fentanyl boat” propaganda.
• 04:13 — Legal context and the creeping executive war powers.
• 06:38 — Buck’s breakdown of the pro-intervention camps within the Trump administration.
• 09:17 — Reliability of intelligence and non-lethal outcomes.
• 13:06 — The myth of deterrence via military power in the drug war.
• 16:15 — Historical overview of U.S. interventions in Latin America.
• 19:11 — How U.S. meddling empowers autocrats like Maduro.
• 23:43 — War advocates’ lack of accountability.
• 25:25 — Fiscal conservatism vs. the cost of endless wars.
• 40:15 — Regime change as failed central planning.
• 44:14 — Buck’s prediction (or refusal to predict) on war in Venezuela.

Tone & Language

• The tone is candid, irreverent, and at times sardonic, with both Kibbe and Buck layering historical anecdotes with critique and dry humor (“crossed the Rubio Rubicon”; “midwit air power fetish”).
• Both display a libertarian skepticism of state power, especially regarding war and propaganda.

Takeaways

Kibbe and Buck argue convincingly that U.S. military intervention in Venezuela would repeat the errors of past regime change efforts: justifying action on flimsy pretexts, failing to solve root problems, and resulting in unintended consequences, all while ignoring the long-term costs—financial, moral, and geopolitical. They urge viewers to resist the “do something” bias and to demand honesty about risks, trade-offs, and historical context.

Resources

• Brandon Buck’s Twitter/X: @brandonbuck (Brandon with two A's)
• Cato Institute Foreign Policy Shop: Scholars page on Cato.org
• Free the People (Kibbe’s organization): freethepeople.org

For further details, listen to the full episode on the Blaze Podcast Network or visit Kibbe on Liberty’s show page.