Episode Overview
Title: Can Another Javier Milei Save Venezuela?
Host: Matt Kibbe (Blaze Podcast Network)
Guest: Ian Vásquez, Vice President for International Studies, Cato Institute
Date: January 14, 2026
This episode explores the complex dynamics of Venezuela’s collapse under socialism, the rise and repression of opposition leader María Corina Machado, and whether the libertarian revolution sparked by Argentina’s Javier Milei signals hope for Venezuela. Ian Vásquez brings deep expertise on Latin American politics to analyze U.S. intervention, the possibility of genuine liberty taking hold, and the critical role of homegrown reformers.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Venezuela’s Economic and Political Collapse
-
Historical Roots of Disaster
- Oil nationalization in the mid-1970s marked the beginning:
“[The] price of water was higher than the price of gasoline…they’ve had this long obsession with nationalized oil…a classic case of the natural resource curse.” — Ian Vásquez (04:36)
- Even as a democracy, Venezuela shared the socialist consensus; this paved the way for Chavez.
- U.S. involvement (choosing “our guy”) inadvertently contributed to the socialist narrative exploited by Chavez (07:03).
- The collapse of economic freedom began in the 1970s; Chavez deepened the decline.
- Oil nationalization in the mid-1970s marked the beginning:
-
The Chavez Era: From False Promises to Increasing Radicalism
- Chavez was evasive about his socialist intentions to win power (08:44).
- Used democracy’s form to strip genuine freedoms and concentrate power (09:27).
- Financed leftist movements across Latin America, especially protests against classical liberal events (10:57).
- Vast oil revenues (~$1 trillion) vanished into corruption and foreign meddling.
-
Maduro’s Rule and Cuban Influence
- Rise of Nicolás Maduro coincided with the oil price crash (13:33).
- “The Cuban regime was really running Venezuela…providing intelligence and security services…following the Cuban playbook of repression.” — Ian Vásquez (14:20)
- Despite occasional dollarization, repression only increased.
-
Human Rights and Regime Tactics
- Political prisoners, use of “colectivos” (regime-backed armed gangs) to enforce control and intimidate (17:19).
- “They’re the ones that show up to beat the crap out of Venezuelans who protest…they’re armed, on motorcycles, and work hand in hand with the regime.” — Ian Vásquez (17:19)
- Gun rights abolished—only regime and colectivos are armed (18:12).
- Political prisoners, use of “colectivos” (regime-backed armed gangs) to enforce control and intimidate (17:19).
2. María Corina Machado: The Libertarian Alternative
-
Background and Consistency
- Long-time classical liberal, active since early 2000s (18:43).
- Uniquely clear and consistent in advocating truly free market reforms and breaking with the statist oil monopoly.
- Unlike other opposition leaders, she pushed for the actual shrinking of the state:
“She was always a classical liberal…her vision of reform was consistent…that gave her a lot of credibility.” — Ian Vásquez (20:40)
-
Organizational Excellence and Popular Mandate
- United the opposition in 2023 primary — received over 90% of the vote.
- Regime barred her from running; she endorsed Edmundo Gonzalez.
- Secretly organized massive poll monitoring, demonstrated regime’s electoral fraud (22:56).
-
Intellectual Bona Fides
- Deeply versed in Austrian economics and American libertarian thought.
“She’s a very sophisticated free marketeer…her model for Venezuela is liberty in terms of personal liberty, civil liberties, limited power, rule of law, and free markets.” — Ian Vásquez (24:10)
- Deeply versed in Austrian economics and American libertarian thought.
-
Contrast with Other ‘Technocrats’ or NGOs
- Not a softer statism, but genuinely libertarian; has spoken out against Chavez’s “social programs as propaganda and population control” (25:32).
3. U.S. Policy, Intervention, and Regime Change
-
Recent U.S. Intervention
- U.S. ousted Maduro, installed interim leader Delcy Rodríguez (current acting president).
- President’s statements echo classic nation-building:
“We want peace, liberty and justice for the great people of Venezuela…We will make the people of Venezuela rich, independent and safe…we are going to run this country until we can do a safe and fair election.” — Matt Kibbe quoting U.S. President (paraphrased at 26:19)
-
Vásquez’s Critique of U.S. Approach
- U.S. is partnering with the remnants of the regime, ignoring the legitimate, popularly chosen opposition (María Corina Machado).
- U.S. should work with her on transition planning, as she has detailed plans ready for both short-term and longer-term reforms (27:57).
“They have a plan for the first 100 hours…for the first 100 days…including privatizing oil and full market competition.” — Ian Vásquez (29:31)
- U.S. approach risks fostering chaos (“Colin Powell: ‘You break it, you own it’” — 33:39), as fractured regime elements could instigate infighting and renewed violence.
-
On Delcy Rodríguez
- Presented as “moderate” in some U.S. outlets (e.g., NYT), but Vásquez refutes this:
“Delcy Rodríguez…is working alongside other regime leaders…true believer communists…these are people accused of crimes against humanity.” — Ian Vásquez (31:15)
- Presented as “moderate” in some U.S. outlets (e.g., NYT), but Vásquez refutes this:
4. Media Coverage and Geopolitical Subtext
-
Media Sidelining of Liberty Advocates
- The establishment/media and deep state actors do not want an uncontrollable libertarian in charge (37:54).
- “The NYT called her [Machado] the Margaret Thatcher of Venezuela, which a lot of their writers probably don’t like.” — Ian Vásquez (39:50)
-
International and Regional Implications
- Venezuelan left’s failure has discredited socialism across Latin America; U.S. intervention is, unusually, popular in the region (43:02).
- Left-wing governments in Latin America are now being rejected; the region is turning toward right/center-right alternatives (45:13).
5. Does Milei Inspire a Broader Libertarian Movement?
-
Javier Milei’s Influence
- Milei’s radically libertarian stance has “caught the attention of all of Latin America” (45:33).
- He is lauded as the only sitting global leader implementing explicit libertarian policies.
-
“He’s not…competing with the left on their own terms—he’s rejecting the whole thing…showing that politically, the libertarian message is viable.” — Ian Vásquez (45:33, 46:06)
-
Parallels to María Corina Machado
- Style differs, but “her beliefs are pretty much very closely aligned” with Milei’s (47:11).
- Both are “sophisticated classical liberals” focused on limiting state power.
- They admire one another and communicate, participating in international liberty conferences (47:44).
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Venezuela’s trajectory:
“When you don’t have economic freedom, you end up with no freedoms at all. And that’s certainly one lesson from Venezuela.”
— Ian Vásquez (06:27) -
On the impact of oil nationalization:
“That was the source of their problems…wealth concentrated in the government’s hands. Back then it was democracy, but…most people believed in socialism…absolute corruption and dysfunctionality…”
— Ian Vásquez (04:36) -
On María Corina Machado’s significance:
“Her vision of reform was consistent…Her consistency in her vision and her strategy is what gave her a lot of credibility.”
— Ian Vásquez (20:40) -
On U.S. regime change pitfalls:
“I think it would be much better to have a transition being run or in collaboration with María Corina Machado…let the Venezuelans run the country. They’re already in a position to do so.”
— Ian Vásquez (28:52) -
On Latin America’s political moment:
“This is an important development to get right…for the past 25 years [Venezuela] has been the source of so much of Latin America’s troubles.”
— Ian Vásquez (44:13) -
On Milei and youth appeal:
“Today, it’s very popular to be libertarian in Argentina, especially among the young.”
— Ian Vásquez (46:53) -
On possible outcomes for Venezuela:
“Venezuela is much closer to Eastern Europe in 1989 where the regime collapsed and absolutely everybody welcomed that collapse.”
— Ian Vásquez (36:34)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Venezuela's Oil Nationalization and Socialist Roots: 04:36 – 09:09
- Chavez’s Rule and Repression: 09:27 – 11:38
- Cuban Influence and Maduro’s Hardline: 13:33 – 18:03
- Opposition and María Corina Machado’s Rise: 18:43 – 24:59
- Her Classical Liberal Credentials: 24:10 – 26:19
- U.S. Intervention and Policy Critique: 26:19 – 33:39
- Delcy Rodríguez and Regime Players: 31:06 – 33:39
- Media Narratives and Internal Regime Dynamics: 37:54 – 40:31
- Regional Context and Shifting Politics: 43:02 – 45:13
- Milei’s Libertarian Revolution: 45:13 – 49:16
- Practical Resources and Further Info: 50:22 – 51:07
Additional Resources Mentioned
- Cato Institute: Cato.org
- Spanish-language: ElCato.org
- Vente Venezuela (Machado’s party and platform): social media & party website
- Conference with Milei and Machado: Cato YouTube or website; search “Argentina and Liberty in Argentina and Beyond” (49:16)
Episode Takeaways
- Venezuela’s current predicament is not unique, but an extreme warning about the perils of state-run economies and the dangers of persistent, bipartisan interventionism.
- María Corina Machado represents a rare, bona fide libertarian alternative in Latin America, armed with credibility, a clear vision, and a committed base.
- U.S. regime-change strategies, repeating past mistakes, risk squandering the opportunity for organic, locally led reform.
- The libertarian wave sparked by Milei in Argentina could catalyze a similar transformation in Venezuela—if foreign powers allow genuine reformers to lead.
- With Latin American politics shifting away from discredited leftist regimes, the window is open for liberty to take root—if the right choices are made now.