Kibbe on Liberty Ep 374: “War with Iran Is Looming” | Guest: Jon Hoffman
Date: February 25, 2026
Host: Matt Kibbe | Guest: Jon Hoffman, Research Fellow at Cato Institute
Overview
In this episode of Kibbe on Liberty, host Matt Kibbe sits down with Jon Hoffman, a research fellow at the Cato Institute, to discuss the growing possibility that the US will launch military action against Iran. They analyze the motivations behind the push for war, the roles of US and Israeli politics, the lessons from past interventions, and the limitations of American foreign policy. Throughout, they urge skepticism toward regime change and question the sustainability of America’s current warfare state.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The “Greater Israel” Controversy and Regional Instability
[00:53–03:47]
- Kibbe references a recent Tucker Carlson interview with the US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, in which Huckabee implied support for “Greater Israel”—expanding Israel’s territory drastically.
- Hoffman highlights that although some call this idea “niche,” it is enshrined in foundational documents like the Likud Charter:
“It has a commitment to that idea in the founding charter. So this is not some obscure political niche here.” —Hoffman [02:16]
- The comment triggered blowback from important regional allies like Saudi Arabia, threatening any efforts at stability.
2. The Schizophrenic Trump Doctrine
[03:47–05:34]
- Kibbe and Hoffman describe Trump’s foreign policy as torn between isolationist “America First” impulses and neocon/Likud pressure to attack Iran:
“He’s been talking about Iran’s supposed nuclear capabilities for 30 years. So this is not a new campaign.” —Kibbe [04:12]
- The internal tension is reflected within Trump’s coalition and the broader right, and also among US allies.
3. The Absurdities and Human Costs of War
[05:34–08:45]
- Kibbe mocks the high-tech “USS Gerald R. Ford” as a metaphor for over-engineered, dysfunctional US militarism—pointing to malfunctioning ship toilets on a high-tech warship.
- Hoffman stresses the long deployments and emotional toll on service members:
“It just goes to show the strain that the warfare state has on American service members... The greatest way to respect the troops is not put them in harm’s way needlessly to begin with.” —Hoffman [06:37]
- Kibbe reiterates that military personnel have become skeptical:
“A huge part of Ron Paul’s base...was from former military...who felt like they had been sold a bill of goods.” —Kibbe [07:30]
4. Blowback and the 1953 Coup
[08:45–10:48]
- Kibbe and Hoffman revisit Ron Paul’s famous debate moment on “blowback,” relating to CIA regime change in Iran, 1953, and its consequences.
“The term blowback was first officially used to refer to the ramifications of operation Ajax in 1953.” —Hoffman [09:54]
- Both agree that American hubris in engineering regimes abroad has bred long-term instability.
5. Critique of Neoconservative & Centralized Foreign Policy
[10:48–13:01]
- Kibbe equates neoconservative regime change with socialist economic planning:
“It’s the same exact problem. It’s the same hubris, it’s the same lack of knowledge.” —Kibbe [12:07]
- Hoffman: Post-WWII America has overinvested faith in executive power and underestimated the complexity of foreign societies.
6. The Case Against War with Iran
[14:48–17:23]
- No clear, honest rationale (“casus belli”) for attacking Iran has been articulated—reasons keep shifting (nuclear, missile program, protests).
“They’re just throwing darts at a board trying to link justifications back to a predetermined course of action.” —Hoffman [15:51]
- Warns that “mowing the lawn” (Israeli strategy to keep adversaries weakened through raids) will not work on a huge, intact nation-state like Iran.
- US troops and bases in the region are vulnerable; major escalation would guarantee casualties.
7. The US-Israel “Special Relationship”
[20:16–20:54]
- Israel’s aggressive posture is underwritten by the expectation of US military backup:
“The special relationship insulates Israel from the cost of its own policies, allowing it to pursue actions that it probably otherwise wouldn’t if it had to shoulder those costs.” —Hoffman [20:54]
- Not all Israelis back Netanyahu’s escalatory plans—many see them as PR and strategic disasters.
8. War and Political Self-Interest
[22:08–23:54]
- Kibbe: Netanyahu’s push for escalation with Iran could be mainly about avoiding accountability and winning elections.
“Are you suggesting that politicians will start wars just to win reelection?” —Kibbe [23:49]
- Hoffman confirms this bluntly and with irony.
9. Experiences in Israel and Dissent
[24:21–28:32]
- Hoffman shares his recent experience in Israel—being flagged at the border for his critical writing.
- Notably, he felt “more free among Israelis to criticize Israeli policy than back here in the United States.” [25:32]
- IDF sources described chaotic engagement rules, sniper incidents, and acknowledged that official war aims are unachieved.
10. Double Standards and Domestic Hypocrisy
[32:09–34:53]
- Kibbe and Hoffman criticize the inconsistency of condemning Iranian suppression of protests, while ignoring or excusing collateral damage in Gaza.
“The future of the Iranian people is their own. It is a brutal dictatorship... But is the United States the one that should or can bring this about?” —Hoffman [34:53]
11. The Fantasies and Dangers of Regime Change
[35:52–41:18]
- Hoffman notes a lack of coherent “endgame” for regime change in Iran—some push to reinstall the Shah’s son, others now openly endorse state collapse.
“There is no comparable example of regime change by aerial force.” —Hoffman [39:44]
- Iran is many times larger, more mountainous, and more defensible than Iraq or Afghanistan.
12. The Cost in Blood, Treasure, and Strategic Focus
[41:18–43:54]
- “You break it, you own it” is often ignored; involvement will escalate and draw ever greater resources.
- US global military commitments (Ukraine, China, etc.) are already straining budgets and readiness:
“The United States drained 25% of its missile interceptor stockpile defending Israel.” —Hoffman [42:28]
13. The Bipartisanship & Business of War
[43:54–47:32]
- Both parties are complicit; military Keynesianism and the influence of defense contractors and the Israel lobby shape policy.
“The obsession with American empire is really bipartisan.” —Hoffman [43:54]
- The Israel lobby is acutely aware of changing US demographics and is pushing its agenda aggressively while able.
14. The Generational Turning Point
[50:23–53:43]
- Younger Americans are less willing to support endless war in the Middle East.
- The “America First” label is at odds with neoconservative interventionism.
“Young people are not down with what’s happening in Gaza. They’re not interested in all these foreign wars.” —Kibbe [50:55]
15. Grassroots Power and the War Powers Resolution
[53:43–58:51]
- Kibbe recalls how grassroots action led by Thomas Massie prevented Obama from bombing Syria in 2013.
- Hoffman and Kibbe discuss renewed efforts by Massie and Ro Khanna for a bipartisan resolution to prevent war with Iran:
“I really do believe that there is a moment here to capitalize on growing dissatisfaction with US foreign policy that’s emerging on the right and the left.” —Hoffman [55:43]
- Public opposition to war is strong but ignored by the establishment.
16. Economic and Civilizational Priorities
[58:51–60:16]
- The burdens of war are tangible as Americans struggle economically:
“America’s priorities are so misplaced at the current moment. And Trump used a lot of that rhetoric to get to office. But we see the disconnect between rhetoric and actual policy action.” —Hoffman [58:54]
- Massie’s consistently anti-war “America First” approach is highlighted as the genuine version.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“It’s not some obscure political niche. This is people have different conceptualizations of what actually constitutes, quote, unquote, Greater Israel. But to portray it as something as obscure and just inside Mike Huckabee’s head is wrong.”
— Jon Hoffman [02:16] -
"The greatest way to respect the troops is not put them in harm's way needlessly to begin with."
— Jon Hoffman [06:37] -
“A huge part of Ron Paul’s base… was from former military… who felt like they had been sold a bill of goods.”
— Matt Kibbe [07:30] -
"There’s no clear casus belli…there’s no imminent threat that Iran poses to the United States... They’re just throwing darts at a board trying to link justifications back to a predetermined course of action."
— Jon Hoffman [15:28–15:51] -
"This is a recipe for disaster. And during the last 12 day war… the United States drained 25% of its missile interceptor stockpile defending Israel. That hinders American military readiness and capability…in other critical theaters."
— Jon Hoffman [41:18–42:28] -
"The special relationship insulates Israel from the cost of its own policies, allowing it to pursue actions that it probably otherwise wouldn’t if it had to shoulder those costs."
— Jon Hoffman [20:54] -
“Are you suggesting that politicians will start wars just to win reelection?”
— Matt Kibbe [23:49] (sarcastically) -
"I felt even inside Israel at some points that I was more free among Israelis to criticize Israeli policy than back here in the United States."
— Jon Hoffman [25:32] -
"I really do believe that there is a moment here to capitalize on growing dissatisfaction with US foreign policy that’s emerging on the right and the left."
— Jon Hoffman [55:43] -
"America's priorities are so misplaced at the current moment...we see the disconnect between rhetoric and actual policy action. Whereas with somebody like Massie, I would say you see the rhetoric and the action and that's what we need at the current moment."
— Jon Hoffman [58:54]
Important Timestamps
- 00:53: Introduction to the Iran/Greater Israel controversy
- 03:47: Trump’s divided foreign policy instincts
- 05:34: USS Ford as metaphor for military dysfunction
- 08:45: Ron Paul, “blowback,” and the roots of Iran-US tension
- 10:48: Hubris of regime change policy
- 14:48: Why bombing Iran is a bad idea
- 17:45: “Mowing the lawn” doctrine explained
- 20:16: US–Israel “special relationship” analyzed
- 24:21: Hoffman’s experience with Israeli authorities
- 28:58: Firsthand IDF testimonies from Gaza and Lebanon
- 32:09: Double standards in US policy
- 35:52: No endgame for regime change in Iran
- 41:18: “You break it, you own it”—Iraq/Afghanistan vs. Iran
- 43:54: Bipartisan consensus & military contractor influence
- 50:23: The generational shift and opportunity for restraint
- 53:43: Lessons from 2013’s anti-Syria bombing campaign
- 57:47: Massie & Khanna’s War Powers Resolution
Conclusion
Kibbe and Hoffman provide a nuanced, forceful critique of looming war with Iran, contextualizing it within decades of misadventure and special interests. They debunk regime change fantasies, highlight the costs for everyday Americans, service members, and freedom fighters alike, and call for a truly “America First” foreign policy rooted in restraint and constitutional principle. The episode closes on a note of hope that cross-partisan, bottom-up pressure can make a difference—just as it did in 2013 against intervention in Syria.
Find more from Jon Hoffman:
- Twitter: @Hoffman8Jon
- Cato Institute Defense & Foreign Policy
- Teaches US Middle East Policy at George Mason University
For more, visit: