Near-final ballot returns show Oakland’s City Council president slightly ahead in her bid for the Alameda County Board of Supervisors, setting her up for a win that would throw into question who will lead the city after Mayor Sheng Thao’s recall.

As council president, Nikki Fortunato Bas is set to become interim mayor once Thao’s recall is certified next month. But if she wins a seat on the Board of Supervisors, she would be sworn in just weeks later.

Bas stopped short of declaring victory over Emeryville Councilmember John Bauters on Wednesday night after the latest ballot returns, posting on X that it “appears” voters have selected her as their next supervisor.

“One year ago, I answered the call from community-based advocates and Labor leaders to advance a vision of an equitable, prosperous and healthy future for every Alameda County family,” Bas wrote. “I will bring an unflagging commitment and engage the community to serve every resident.”

She currently leads the District 5 race by 415 votes, and Alameda County Registrar Tim Dupuis estimates that about 4,800 ballots are outstanding across the entire county. Those ballots all have signature errors — like mismatching signatures or lack of a signature at all — that must be cured before they can be counted, Dupuis said, and those that are won’t be added to the online tally until Dec. 3.

Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao listens to City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas speak in front of city hall during a city-led “Welcome Back Wednesday” event to promote the recovery of the city’s downtown area on April 5, 2023. (Kori Suzuki/KQED)

“We don’t know how many of these 4,836 votes are within that district, and we also don’t know how those folks ended up voting,” he told KQED. “We’ll just have to see what comes in by Dec. 3. That’s just how this works, every vote counts.”

Until then, Oakland elected officials will be waiting with bated breath to see if they’ll have to select a new interim leader to inherit a serious budget crisis, weather political fracturing and lead a fairly novice council.

Oakland’s city charter said that when a mayor vacates the office, the council president will serve until the city holds a special election, which will take place mid-April. But if Bas vacates her seat, the council will have to select a new president from its ranks in January. As council president, that person would step in as interim mayor to lead the city until voters choose a representative to serve out Thao’s term, which ends in 2026.

The stakes for choosing a new council president and president pro tempore will be high.

Without Bas, the council would be under entirely new leadership since current President Pro Tem Dan Kalb and Vice Mayor Rebecca Kaplan both chose not to run for another term. And Oakland has big decisions to make before the spring, most notably getting the city back on a fiscally responsible path.

City officials raised a red flag this week, telling the council that Oakland is at risk of financial insolvency if there aren’t major budget reductions by the end of the calendar year. Spending at its current rate, the city is set to add $93 million to its already significant deficit.

The interim mayor will also have to take over Thao’s role in orchestrating the stalled sale of the Oakland Coliseum to the African American Sports and Entertainment Group, which the city’s year-end budget is significantly reliant on.

Whether the outstanding votes in Alameda County are enough to swing Bas’ race, leaving her on the City Council, is unknown. Dupuis said the ballots span the county’s five districts, and it isn’t clear how many are District 5 residents. There’s also a chance some people won’t cure their ballots before the Dec. 3 deadline.

The elections office reaches out to voters whose ballots have errors via phone, email and paper mail, urging them to submit signature verification statements by the deadline.

Sometimes, “people are very interested in having their vote counted for a particular race, and sometimes they may feel that the election is over, and they don’t get around to doing it,” Dupuis told KQED.

Though the race’s margin remains close, Alameda County has no threshold for triggering an automatic recount. Instead, anyone can request a recount — as long as they pay for it. If that’s the case, Dupuis said the person would have to reach out to the registrar within five days of election certification. Then, his office would meet with the requester to discuss whether they want a hand or machine count and how they plan to fund it.

In 2022, a requested recount in the Oakland mayoral election that narrowly put Thao into office was called off after its supporters couldn’t foot the bill.

No matter what, Dupuis said, the county will post final unofficial results on the evening of Dec. 3, and he will certify elections on Dec. 5.