Co-host/Legal Analyst (59:23)
All right, let's start at the United States Supreme Court. I think I'll gloss over the tit for tat and the tick tock of the oral argument because for me the more important thing was the next decision that the Supreme Court's going to make on tariffs. And I think, think the writing is on the wall that Donald Trump is likely in the throes of a epic, historic set of losses at the Supreme Court. I'm glad we're finally able to do that. He's going to lose on the Lisa Cook lack of due process, lack of for cause, lack of proper record developed by the trial court below issue that was before the United States Supreme Court, as I had predicted before at the time of the election, when John Sauer was chosen to be Donald Trump's Solicitor General, that his well worn shtick would wear out and that he would eventually wear on the nerves of even the ultra right wing on the Supreme Court with his hyperbolic, hyperactive, just, just this valuable constant Prolix, you know, 50 pounds of argument in a 10 and a 10 pound sack approach to everything. He knows and thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He's got some sort of weird photographic memory about cases. He never, he never capitulates, he never concedes, even when his credibility is at stake. And he's gotten on the wrong side of, of a number of judges in the half a dozen oral arguments that he's made because what once was an interesting advocacy style when he was doing the immunity oral argument and the Colorado Insurrectionist ballot case to help Donald Trump stay on the ballot and get presidential immunity for all the crimes that he committed that Jack Smith was pursuing sort of has grown tiresome. And so what we heard during the oral argument was that he's completely lost, at least for that case, any credibility. They went Sam Alito, if you don't have Sam Alito for Donald Trump, you're about done. When Sam Alito said why did everybody rush here so quickly? Why is there not a properly developed record on this issue about the firing of a board of Governor Dr. Lisa Cook on the, on the Federal Reserve, is there even in the record, her actual mortgage documents that are allegedly the basis for the four cause that Donald Trump used to fire her? And then you heard, you heard John Sauer have to scramble and say, well, I think the snapshot of the, of the, of the picture of the tweet and the social media post from. And I'm like, are you kidding me? The snapshot of the photo of the social media post, that's not evidence, that's not the record. So here's what's going to happen. It's either going to be 8190 or 7 to 2. But Donald Trump's losing. He, he, Kavanaugh is not going to vote with him. Gorsuch isn't. Amy Cody Barrett's not. I'll mention something about Amy Cody Barrett and the tariffs in a moment. Roberts is not going to. I don't think Alito is. And the only one that was sort of couldn't figure out, as always, is Clarence Thomas. But he'll either see the writing on the wall and decide he better go nine zero on this one. Because the only issue really before them was was there is due process, something that has to be given to somebody on the board of governors. And what does that due process look like? What kind of hearing, who decides? See for the Trump administration, it's always you can't review anything the President does. He decides on it. There's four. Cause it can't be chall at one point John Roberts was like, why are we even here? Based on that argument, you're telling me I don't have the power as the Supreme Court on the Supreme Court to reinstate or to take in or out an officer that's fired by the presidency. This is just the ludicrous of John Sauer taken to its extreme. It's another version of the could Seal Team 6 be ordered to take out a political rival by the President and have that be okay under immunity and rather than saying no, that's, that would be. Well, under that scenario, it's never been litigated before. Like oh my God. So they're gonna, they're gonna send it back to Gia Cook who's the sorry, Gia Cobb, who's the Biden appointed federal judge who handled the case below. And they're gonna give her instructions, they're gonna say she gets due process. Lisa Cook, because it's a Fifth Amendment right and she's looking at a 13 more years left on her term and no. So you're going to have to give her due process and you have to figure out what that should look like. Give her a hearing, let there be evidence, let there be, let there be testimony. Figure that out. Then you determine whether there's four costs. Whether the president's assertion that this mortgage fraud, not fraud thing about her having two loans both primary for or both declaring first, that they're. Her primary residence in Michigan and Atlanta are, is, is, is the type of fraud that, that we, that we would expect to lead to her dismissal. Not the president gets to pick anything he wants. Oh, I don't like the color of your tie. Jay Powell, you get to go. So they're going to send it back and she's going to stay in her chair in the meantime, because the issue that was up on the appeal was a narrow one about whether they were going to grant Donald Trump a second stay to block the appellate court. Two to one decision that kept her in her chair. And they're like, they're going to let her be in there. So they're going to let Lisa Cook stay in her seat and Trump fight to get her out as opposed to Lisa Cook out and fighting to get back in, which is good because it'll at least keep the Federal Reserve independent and in the control of non Trump appointees from now until Jay Powell steps off in 2028, not when he steps off in May as the chair. But for me, I was looking for tea leaves about the tariff decision, which would be sort of one of the final nails in Donald Trump's coffin with the American people if he has to, if all the tariffs that he's been using to troll Americans and tax them and troll our allies and enemies and troll the middle powers, as Prime Minister Carney calls them, which is Canada and Europe with, oh, I don't like what you did. You embarrassed me in Davos, Prime Minister Carney. So I'm going to put a 200% tariff on everything Canadian or, or 100% or 200% on French wine because I didn't like Macron. And what he said, and this is the very reason you take this toy away from this toddler, because he doesn't have it constitutionally, nor by statute. So at one point, Amy Coney Barrett said to John Sauer, look, we got a lot of briefs here from economists, former Federal Reserve governors, central bankers. And they're all saying it'll be a disaster, it'll be a recession, it'll be an economic catastrophe if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised by Donald Trump firing Lisa Cook. And then, of course, John Sauer said, well, if you look at the record, you know, the stock market went up two days in a row, and all outside the record, by the way. And she stopped him and she says, you know, I'm not an economist, I'm just a judge. And for me, I think, tying that back together again to Amy Coney Barrett in the tariff hearing saying to the lawyer advocating for the. For the defeat of the tariffs, saying, suppose we rule in your favor, how hard would it be to refund? I think Amy Coney Barrett, which with Kavanaugh often is in the majority, it's. It's becoming like this Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett thing in terms of majority opinions, whether we like them or not, I think this is. They're going to get this gang back together. Not 8:1, not 7 to 2. But I see at least now a 6 to 3, maybe 5 to 4 against the tariffs. Now, that may not come out until June. Now, some people are waiting and they're biting their nails every time there's an announcement of a new Supreme Court decision being dropped. Like, oh, is it today? No, it's not going to be anytime soon. They don't do major decision. Occasionally they do major decisions, you know, like TikTok Ban, which we're not talking about today. You know, 27 days after the hearing, they issued their. They issued their decision. But in major decisions, they normally wait because of how complex these decisions are to write and the concurrences and the dissents and everything holds it up. So it's really like a March, April, May, June event. And for people that thought, well, but look at all the money that's piling up, that must weigh on their minds. You can see from Amy Coney Barrett saying, I'm not an economist, I'm just a judge. They don't care whether Donald Trump has to repay $150 billion or $300 billion. They don't care that it's running. If they illegally did it and it has to be paid back, they figure the government can figure out how to pay back $300 billion back to the importers and businesses. But the problem is they're not going to pay that money back to the Americans who have already been taxed along the way. It's not going to them, it's going to the companies. Unless the companies are like, hey, everybody, 20% off all our goods for the next six months because we got our refund. Not happening. So the people that got screwed and crushed once again were the American people. So you have that going on, and it doesn't make up. I don't want people to think, because we're gonna get a couple of rulings probably against the Trump administration on major issues that it makes up for. It doesn't make up for anything. It doesn't make up for all the ways from the immunity decision to the taking away of a woman's right to choose, to constitutional civil rights being destroyed, to the relationship between the presidency and the other two branches being completely upended. Doesn't change any of that. But we're gonn it like we see it about things that will be good for us and that the tariffs will be destroyed, likely before the midterms. And his attempt to take over the, and, and, and take over the independence of the Federal Reserve, which isn't just an esoteric theory like, or an esoteric academic thing. Oh, that's interesting. He took over the Federal Reserve, he takes over the Federal Reserve, he takes over the Open Markets Committee, he takes over interest rates. Then whatever you're paying now at the supermarket, double it. Because when he lowers interest rates to 1% and floods the market with a fire hose of free money, all it's.