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this is not hyperbole. Every major voting demographic, led by the Hispanic Catholic vote, has turned against Donald Trump. It's the same coalition that he built to ride into office, return to office against Kamala Harris. They are now based on recent polling and durable polling, meaning month after month after month are running screaming from Donald Trump his policies that destroy affordability in America, his policies of depraved immigration rules and law. And led by the American Hispanic Catholics and ultimately led by the leadership of the Catholic Church, from Pope Leo, the first American pope, all the way down to the American bishops, all of the groups that Donald Trump needs at midterm in order to continue his MAGA policies, I have abandoned him. The bottom has fallen out. I'm here to cover it. I'm Michael Popo. You're on the Midas Touch Network. Take a moment. Come over to Legal AF YouTube channel, help us grow that pro democracy channel. Hit the subscribe button there as well. Let me focus on the five different groups or so that I believe are the drivers for the midterms. The Latin vote, the Latin Hispanic Catholic vote, the independent vote, the women vote, the under 30 vote, and the black vote. Donald Trump overperformed versus the historical averages in each one of those groups, especially the Hispanic Catholic vote. But now we've got a complete split. It's because the Hispanic Catholics care more about affordability and immigration policy than the, than the non Hispanic Catholics do. Non Hispanic Catholics side primarily with white evangelical Christians and they side with Donald Trump, but not the Hispanic voter. Whereas Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, calls it. We've got a hiccup problem. Yeah, it's a hiccup problem with Hispanic voters because of the migration policies. Yes. When you put children in jail, when you, when you export people and put them without due process in other countries, when you put them into torture prisons, when you have them die at the hands of ice, when you have them violated, when you deport college, honor college students, it's going to have an impact on the Hispanic Catholic vote. It starts with the leadership of the Catholic Church. Now, I'm not here to comment on all the other problems in organized religion or certainly within the Catholic Church. I'm not here to talk about child abuse in the Catholic Church or whether what they're doing is too little, too late or enough or any of that. But I'm just talking about right now whether they are leading from the front against the Trump administration and immigration policy or they're lead or they're not leading at all. And they are leading from the front. Now, I've you people I've got on record when Pope Leo was elected I do not think it was a coincidence that the first American pope, a Franciscan pope from America, from Chicago, was chosen in the second term of Donald Trump. I think that was a message from the Catholic Church, not just to continue the, the good works of Pope Francis, but to oppose the lawlessness, the depravity, the immorality of Donald Trump and his policies. I think Trump begat, if you will, Pope Leo and Pope Leo, along with American archbishops have been leading, including issuing. The archbishops issuing for the first time in decade a special message to their flock, to their parishioners against the Trump administration immigration policies. And what's the result been? Well, back in 2024 when it was Kamala Harris as the opponent, Donald Trump improved by more than 12 points with the Hispanic Catholic vote and he got 48% of that vote, almost splitting it down the middle with the Democrats. Democrats had reliably, almost said religiously, had reliably gotten 65 to 70% of the Catholic and Hispanic vote. But Donald Trump got 12 more points there. And now the new polling is out and the unfavorability rating for Donald Trump among Hispanic Catholics is at 62%. 62% of Hispanic Catholics can't stand the Trump administration. He's only got a 28% favorable, favorable rating. 70% of them deplore his ICE policies, 70% of them deplore his migration policies. He's effectively lost all of the 12 point upswing that he obtained during the last election. We've seen this play out in a couple of states that have large Hispanic populations. Although the Hispanic vote and the Hispanic Catholic vote, if it bands together and votes against Donald Trump and MAGA can move the needle in many, many jurisdictions. Not just California, Texas and New York, in Georgia too, in places that are purple. But this is why the Republican MAGA are freaking out, because of what happened last month in Texas in Tarrant County, a county that Donald Trump won by 17 points. You don't get any redder than that against Kamala Harris. Well, Taylor Reddit is now a state senator, a Democrat from Tarrant county. He won by 14 points. That's a 31 point swing for a Democrat in a special election in Ruby Red MAGA country of Texas. This is something I wish more people talked about sooner.
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Independents are rejecting Donald Trump. We'll move on to that in a moment. That's Texas. In more than 283 races since the start of the Trump administration 16 months ago. The the Democrats have overperformed. They did better and much better than Kamala Harris in 90% of those districts. They are 28 and 0 in flipping Republican House and state Senate seats 28 and 0. Not one Republican has flipped a Democrat seat during that same time period. They're winning 21%. They're in 21% of the time. They're able to flip the seat. Now let's look at Florida, my adopted home state. Let's look at the city of Miami. Back in back in the special election or the election, you've got Eileen Higgins, non Hispanic woman. There hasn't been a Democrat that's won the city of Miami mayoral race in more than 30 years, let alone a non Hispanic, let alone a Democrat. Okay, so she runs in a, in a, in a district where Trump won Florida by 10 points over Kamala Harris. He won Miami Dade county, where the city of Miami resides by 12 points. He tied Kamala Harris in the city, effectively a tie in the city. And what happened with Eileen Higgins? She won by night points over a Trump picked endorsed candidate in the city where his Miami, in the city of Miami where his library, his presidential library is going to be a candidate who was also endorsed by Governor DeSantis, Eileen Higgins won by 19 points. That's a 29 point swing against the state. That's a 31 point swing against the county and a 19 point swing against the tie between Trump and Kamala Harris in the city of Miami. This is what's freaking out the Republicans. But that's not all. Let's look at the overall Hispanic vote is only Trump has about a 38% approval rating. With independents, he has a 30% approval rating. And again, this is the group of, of voters that Donald Trump can't win without, especially at midterm. Under 30, especially men or boys under 30, 63% disagree with the Trump administration. He's got a 37% approval rating for those under 30 and 25% at least want their vote back. Women, he only has a, a 36% approval rating with women. Now let's look at the black vote. Black vote. Donald Trump did something that was extraordinary against Kamala Harris of all people. He picked up 15% of the black vote. Normally it's in single digits for a Republican, but he over he, he doubled almost what he had done in 2020. Now only 20% of the black vote is in favor of Donald Trump. More than 80% have rejected him. Black vote 80% unfavorable women 64% under 30 voter 63% independent 70% reject Donald Trump. Hispanic vote over 70% reject. And I just went through the Hispanic Catholic vote. If he can't get these groups back in the next seven months or so, he's doomed. We think he's doomed already. But I wanted to go over with you, we spent a considerable amount of time on Midas, touch on legal AF without blowing smoke or sunshine, giving you the straight scoop. So you have the information that you need in order to make the decisions, in order to debate around the kitchen table on social media, in order to motivate you and others to vote. But occasionally we got to take the plane up 5,000ft, look back down and say it has been successful. Our platforming, our opposition to Donald Trump, our calling out each and every one of his depraved, immoral, illegal conduct or behavior or those of his administration is working. It's having a deleterious impact on the American voter. And hit is, you know, his time is up, time is up. We just have to get to the voting. There's a pent up demand for voting. I believe that's going to overwhelm the Republican Party and return checks and balances to our system by giving the Democrats the House and the Senate in just about seven and a half months. So I'll be there for it with you right here every step of the way. You're on the Midas Touch Network. You're on Legal AF on Legal af. No outside investors to take a moment. Hit the Free subscribe button as we continue to grow our Pro Democracy channel. Till my next report, this is Michael Popak. Can't get your fill of Legal af. Me neither. That's why we formed the Legal AF Substack. Every time we mention something in a hot take, whether it's a court filing or a oral argument, come over to the substack. You'll find the court filing and the oral argument there, including a daily roundup that I do called Wait for It Morning af. What else? All the other contributors from Legal AO are there as well. We got some new reporting, we got interviews, we got ad free versions of the podcast and hot takes where Legal AF on substack. Come over now to free subscribe.
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