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Michael Popak (1:00)
To the bear market caused by a crash of Donald Trump's own making as the worldwide markets in China wake up and start retaliating against the US Economy and against Donald Trump and by extension the American consumer and the middle class. I'm Michael Popo. I'm putting on my Wall street hat for today. Let's look what's happened just 24 hours after Liber immigration day. A name I'm sure it will go down in the annals of history of one of the worst euphemisms ever used by a president. Here's what's happened. China woke up and said, oh, we'll see your 54% phony reciprocal tariff based on a formula that a third grader could have come up with. And we will match you with a 34% tariff across the board across all goods. And while we're at it, we're going to put about 30 different US companies on a no supply list so they, they can't get any of our materials that they need for their production. By the way, many US Manufacturers use Chinese component parts or products in their own goods. So let's put a couple of dozen US Countries on there. Let's slow down the supply of rare earth minerals and things that only come from China. And in the impact on that. The oil market is in the tank. All of the futures markets have slid another 5%. We're now down 10%. And listen to this one, folks. JP Morgan Chase, you know, that's Jamie Dimon's bank. Just a week ago I did a hot take where I said that their new prediction for recession before Liberation Day, a US recession happening in 2025, was at 40%. It's now up to 60%. That's just off of Liberation Day. Because most of Wall street and the big banks who backed Donald Trump all thought he was bluffing. They all thought, no, he's the ultimate wheeler dealer trader. Let's make a deal. Art of the deal. He'll just try to bring all these people back to the table, all these countries back to the table, and he'll cut a deal. Nope, he didn't cut a deal. He just imposed the tariffs. He didn't even threaten to impose the tariffs like he did in Mexico and Canada, giving those countries time to negot. He just imposed them and then wagged a bony finger. Scott Besant, Howard Lutnick. Don't you dare. Don't you dare retaliate. They could go higher. And now we know that the formula. I did a separate hot take on this recently. The formula underneath it all is. What's the legal term I'm looking for? Fugazi fakacta. Something a fourth grader could have come up with. They call it a. These are reciprocal tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs. Except they don't seem to know what the word reciprocal means. So instead of making them reciprocate. Right. Well, Your tariff is 12% against our imports. So we're going to hit you with a 12% reciprocal tariff. See how that word is used in a sentence properly. Trump administration. No, that's not what they did, apparently. And it didn't even take like a, an AI scientist or a world economist to come up with this. All they. Because I saw some weird numbers, right? I'm looking at. Why is it like a 70% reciprocal tax with the Ivory Coast? Really? They're hitting us with 70% import taxes and no, that's not what it was. They took the countries. Let's just do the fraction right on the numerator. The top number. They did the country's trade deficit with the United States. Okay, well, if the country doesn't have a lot of things to sell, it's going to be in a deficit. But country trade deficit is your numerator. Your denominator is total value of exports to the US So countries trade deficit in dollar divided by exports to the US Wait, I'm not done. Then take a half of that and it gives you the number. This is like how you predict how tall a baby's going to be. Well, it's the father's height and it's the mother's height. And then you add them together, divide by half, and that's how big the baby's going to be really. And so China, for instance. Let's just play the math out. $300 billion deficit. I mean, it's not nothing. Canada's is relatively small at 40 billion. Just by comparison, 300 billion dollar deficit for China divided by $440 billion of import value is 67%. There we go, 67%. Cut that in half. That's your reciprocal tariff. Do you see why the world is smacking their forehead and going that is the underpinnings, intellectual underpinnings of a reciprocal tariff. They're insane.