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- [00:01]
Unknown Speaker 1
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- [01:01]
Michael Popak
To the bear market caused by a crash of Donald Trump's own making as the worldwide markets in China wake up and start retaliating against the US Economy and against Donald Trump and by extension the American consumer and the middle class. I'm Michael Popo. I'm putting on my Wall street hat for today. Let's look what's happened just 24 hours after Liber immigration day. A name I'm sure it will go down in the annals of history of one of the worst euphemisms ever used by a president. Here's what's happened. China woke up and said, oh, we'll see your 54% phony reciprocal tariff based on a formula that a third grader could have come up with. And we will match you with a 34% tariff across the board across all goods. And while we're at it, we're going to put about 30 different US companies on a no supply list so they, they can't get any of our materials that they need for their production. By the way, many US Manufacturers use Chinese component parts or products in their own goods. So let's put a couple of dozen US Countries on there. Let's slow down the supply of rare earth minerals and things that only come from China. And in the impact on that. The oil market is in the tank. All of the futures markets have slid another 5%. We're now down 10%. And listen to this one, folks. JP Morgan Chase, you know, that's Jamie Dimon's bank. Just a week ago I did a hot take where I said that their new prediction for recession before Liberation Day, a US recession happening in 2025, was at 40%. It's now up to 60%. That's just off of Liberation Day. Because most of Wall street and the big banks who backed Donald Trump all thought he was bluffing. They all thought, no, he's the ultimate wheeler dealer trader. Let's make a deal. Art of the deal. He'll just try to bring all these people back to the table, all these countries back to the table, and he'll cut a deal. Nope, he didn't cut a deal. He just imposed the tariffs. He didn't even threaten to impose the tariffs like he did in Mexico and Canada, giving those countries time to negot. He just imposed them and then wagged a bony finger. Scott Besant, Howard Lutnick. Don't you dare. Don't you dare retaliate. They could go higher. And now we know that the formula. I did a separate hot take on this recently. The formula underneath it all is. What's the legal term I'm looking for? Fugazi fakacta. Something a fourth grader could have come up with. They call it a. These are reciprocal tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs. Except they don't seem to know what the word reciprocal means. So instead of making them reciprocate. Right. Well, Your tariff is 12% against our imports. So we're going to hit you with a 12% reciprocal tariff. See how that word is used in a sentence properly. Trump administration. No, that's not what they did, apparently. And it didn't even take like a, an AI scientist or a world economist to come up with this. All they. Because I saw some weird numbers, right? I'm looking at. Why is it like a 70% reciprocal tax with the Ivory Coast? Really? They're hitting us with 70% import taxes and no, that's not what it was. They took the countries. Let's just do the fraction right on the numerator. The top number. They did the country's trade deficit with the United States. Okay, well, if the country doesn't have a lot of things to sell, it's going to be in a deficit. But country trade deficit is your numerator. Your denominator is total value of exports to the US So countries trade deficit in dollar divided by exports to the US Wait, I'm not done. Then take a half of that and it gives you the number. This is like how you predict how tall a baby's going to be. Well, it's the father's height and it's the mother's height. And then you add them together, divide by half, and that's how big the baby's going to be really. And so China, for instance. Let's just play the math out. $300 billion deficit. I mean, it's not nothing. Canada's is relatively small at 40 billion. Just by comparison, 300 billion dollar deficit for China divided by $440 billion of import value is 67%. There we go, 67%. Cut that in half. That's your reciprocal tariff. Do you see why the world is smacking their forehead and going that is the underpinnings, intellectual underpinnings of a reciprocal tariff. They're insane.
- [05:55]
Unknown Speaker 2
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- [08:07]
Michael Popak
They are totally insane. And now what's happened is $2 trillion worth of value of corporate value has been shed. And the response to that, Marco Rubio again. Another in a series of non economists that work with Donald Trump. Marco Rubio, barely a lawyer. I knew the guy in Florida. Let me just tell you that he was in one of my law firms for about 20 minutes. It was a no show job. The guy never showed up for work, but he got paid because he was at the time the youngest speaker of the Florida House, and they wanted to have him around. Okay? This guy, trust me, can barely balance his own family checkbook. He is not an economist. He gets up and says, we're just in a period of recalibration. As soon as the world properly adjusts, will all be fine. I actually heard somebody say that yesterday in a store that I was in, like a manager of the store. Oh, it'll be fine. You know, a Trumper. Oh, fine. The world will just recalibrate. The world will just recalibrate passing the tariffs as taxes onto the American people. And that's why JPMorgan Chase doesn't think they're gonna recalibrate. They think we're heading for a recession and a bear market. I started off the hot take with bear market. We were in a roaring bull market, meaning rising market. Yeah, that's what Donald Trump inherited. He decided he doesn't like the bulls, doesn't want to run with the bulls. He wants to have a bear. Yeah, he loves bears. Right, Like Putin and Russia. So now we got a bear market, meaning we are contracting, meaning we are falling off the cliff. That's why $2 trillion worth of value got shed. And what does Marco Rubio, the non economist, say about that? He says, don't worry, it's because the stock price for American value was overpriced because it was based on a production schedule and production methods that were not healthy. Thanks, Mr. Little. Marco, who's never ran a business, can't balance a checkbook. Thanks for telling me how the stock market works. I mean, it's so bad that even. Even lead Republicans cheering on Donald Trump think this is insane. Okay? John Kennedy, a senator from Louisiana, had two quotes yesterday, two quotes, one on Newsmax and one I'll show you, in which he said, one, we're all gonna die. When they asked him about these policies and predictions of success by the Trump administration, his response was, we're all gonna die someday. That is the direct correlation between these policies and Reality, death. Let's play the clip.
- [10:57]
Unknown Speaker 2
In the long run, we're all dead. Short run matters too. Nobody knows what the impact of these tariffs is going to be on the economy.
- [11:05]
Michael Popak
And then he doubled down on it on Newsmax in an interview, which I won't show you, in which he said, if the people in the Trump administration think that these predictions may come true or, you know, they know what's gonna happen in the future, then they're selling deep stupid. I never thought I would say I agree with Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana, but they are selling deep stupid in the, in the Trump Trump administration. In fact, that should be their new motto. They should get rid of maga and they should just have under bumper stickers and hats selling deep stupid. And how dumb do they think the American people are? Now, I'll tell you something else that happened. I'll cover here at the end of the hot take. All of the industries and segments that supported Donald Trump or are represented in his cabinet by Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, Linda McMahon, Elon Musk, all of their companies went down 10%, 9 to 10% in value. Boom, gone yesterday, Every one of them. Howard Lutnick has two companies, BGC and Newmark, look them up. Down 9%. Linda McMahon has a company that runs World Wrestling Enterprises called TKO, down 8, 9%. Tesla down another 6%. All down. All the segments that supported Donald Trump, the couple hundred million dollars from the oil industry, down 8 to 10%. All the tech pros that were up on the podium with him, up on in the family circle during his inauguration, all down 1512, 15%. 9, 10% apiece for Apple, for Amazon, for Meta, down anything in tech, down 10%. And heading down further, at the opening bell today, we could be down 20% in stock value. Donald Trump was given a crown jewel, a gift, a roaring economy by Joe Biden. So roaring that his only thing he had to worry about was how to maintain inflation. Working with Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell, which they were working on. And it was trending downwards at the time of the election. Let me remind you, I'm so nostalgic over Joe Biden at the moment. And what did Donald Trump do with it? We are always Democratic presidents are always cleaning up behind the elephant, behind the elephant of the Republican Party. Every time we get they, we give, we either get a crappy economy from them that we have to fix, like Obama and Biden, and then when we turn a good economy over to the next person, they screw it up. Obama turned over a great economy to Trump screwed it up. It was on life support. Biden comes in, fixes it. Obama took it over from Bush. It was dead. The economy was dead when Obama got in. Resuscitates it. We're always cleaning up behind the elephant. And I'm going to be there for it here on the Midas Touch Network and on Legal af. So until my next reporting, I'm Michael Popak.
- [14:10]
Unknown Speaker 2
In collaboration with the Midas Touch Network, we just launched the Legal AF YouTube channel. Help us build this network, Pro Democracy Channel, where I'll be curating the top stories, the intersection of law and Politics. Go to YouTube now and free subscribe at Legal AFMTN. That's @legal AFMTN.