Trump Strikes his Own Party with Fatal Blow

Summary

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Legal AF – “Trump Strikes his Own Party with Fatal Blow”

Podcast: Legal AF by MeidasTouch
Date: May 9, 2026
Host: Michael Popok (MeidasTouch Network)

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Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Michael Popok, delivers a candid analysis of Donald Trump’s increasingly detrimental impact on the Republican Party, as reflected in the most recent election night results and polling data. Popok delves into how Trump’s actions and rhetoric—particularly his antagonism toward core coalition groups like the Hispanic community and Catholics—are creating schisms within the GOP and paving the way for Democratic opportunities in the upcoming midterms. The episode draws on latest polling, election outcomes from Indiana, and Trump's public feuds—including with Pope Leo—to illustrate the unraveling of the Trump/MAGA political base.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump’s Declining Support and “Cannibalizing” the GOP

• Primary Observation:
  Popok opens by highlighting that Trump himself is primarily responsible for the “cratering” of Republican and MAGA support as the midterms approach.

  “There’s no single person other than Donald Trump who’s more responsible for the cratering of support for the Republican Party and MAGA as we head into the midterms than Donald Trump.”
  — Michael Popok [02:55]

• Indiana Election Night as a ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’:
  Trump intervened in Indiana’s state senate GOP primaries, targeting Republicans who refused to support his redistricting plans. Five out of seven targets lost, but this push for MAGA hardliners, Popok argues, weakens the GOP's general election prospects.

  “All that did was make the seven seats go hard alt right to MAGA land…That doesn't work at the midterms in the general election.”
  — Michael Popok [16:31]

2. Five Key Events Driving Trump’s Plummeting Poll Numbers

• Popok outlines a timeline of major Trump missteps over the past 15 months as chronicled in CNN’s polling data, each event shaving off “about three points” of favorability:
  • Failed Tariffs Scheme: Announced against 200 countries, backfired, beginning his polling decline.
  • Militarization of Cities: Rolled out the National Guard and military to US cities, further dropping approval.
  • ICE Killings in Minneapolis: Mishandling of high-profile assassinations by ICE.
  • Epstein and COVID Cover-Ups: Handling of Jeffrey Epstein’s case and COVID-19 scandals.
  • War in Iran: Recent, unpopular escalation leading to high gas prices and broader economic woes.
• Result:
  Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 45-47% down to the “low 30s”—lower even than after January 6th and “Jimmy Carter numbers.”

  “He’s now down around the Jimmy Carter numbers…and Trump has made no bones about saying that Jimmy Carter was a failed president. Well, your numbers are at that failed presidency level.”
  — Michael Popok [04:34]

3. Unpopularity on Economic Issues

• Economic management, once a MAGA signature, is now a major liability:

  “Unfavorability on the economy? It’s worse. 23, 24, 25% favorability rating—70% or more of America, including a healthy number of Republicans and almost all the independents, have rejected Donald Trump…”
  — Michael Popok [07:23]

4. Alienation of the Hispanic Community and Catholics

• Polling Data:
  • 60% of Hispanics surveyed know someone affected by Trump’s deportation/removal policies.
  • 50% of Hispanics carry documentation daily out of fear of wrongful deportation.
  • 73–74% of Hispanic voters have abandoned Trump.
  • 6 out of 10 Americans believe the U.S. is no longer welcoming to immigrants.
• Resulting Diplomatic Crisis:
  Trump’s public feud with Pope Leo further erodes support among Hispanic Catholics and complicates things for Secretary of State Marco Rubio—a Catholic himself—who must attempt damage control at the Vatican.

  "He’s created this schism between Hispanics having now to choose between their spiritual leader and their president, and they’re abandoning Trump in droves.”
  — Michael Popok [13:24]

5. Trump’s Public Attack on Pope Leo

• Memorable Exchange:
  Trump, in an interview, accuses Pope Leo of being permissive towards Iran’s nuclear program and not caring about Catholic safety—fueling intra-coalition discontent.

  “Well, the Pope would rather talk about the fact that it’s okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. And I don’t think that’s very good…if it’s up to the Pope, he thinks it’s just fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
  — Donald Trump [13:04]

6. Strategic Impact: GOP “Bloodbath” Predicted for Midterms

• Popok argues that by forcing out moderate Republicans in favor of MAGA candidates, Trump is dooming the GOP for November. This out-of-touch strategy opens the door for Democratic gains—possibly a “plus 30 seat advantage” in the House—and threatens GOP control in the Senate, especially with candidates like Sherrod Brown returning to the field in Ohio.

  “It is a level of insanity of which I am not familiar…This kind of lack of strategic thinking that will inure to the benefit of the Democrats at the midterms.”
  — Michael Popok [15:05]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Self-Destruction:

  “Donald Trump’s suicide mission to kill off MAGA before his term is over. That’s the only way to explain it.”
  — Michael Popok [03:34]

• On Hispanic-Catholic Cultural Ties:

  “When I was a kid, you go into somebody’s home and you’d see two 8 by 10 photos up on a wall—Ronald Reagan and the Pope…He’s created this schism between Hispanics…they’re abandoning Trump in droves.”
  — Michael Popok [13:24]

• On Poll Data and Party Collapse:

  “Every time there’s an economic shock, every time there’s a scandal, every time he opens his mouth, he loses another sliver of his core constituency.”
  — Michael Popok [08:52]

• On the Election Results in Indiana:

  “Trump doesn’t care. All he wanted to do was flex and show he could take out people that opposed him. Regardless of what happens at the midterms, it’s this kind of lack of strategic thinking that will inure to the benefit of the Democrats.”
  — Michael Popok [16:10]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:55] – Trump’s role in weakening the GOP and the significance of Indiana results.
• [04:34] – Detailed breakdown of Trump’s polling plunge: tariffs, militarization, ICE, Epstein/COVID, Iran War.
• [07:23] – Popok explains Trump’s deep unpopularity on economic stewardship.
• [09:40] – Deep dive into Hispanic polling and the impact of Trump’s immigration policies.
• [12:36] – Trump’s attack on Pope Leo: extended quote and discussion.
• [13:24] – Cultural confusion among Hispanic Catholics as Popok offers personal anecdotes.
• [15:05] – Analysis of Indiana’s GOP primary “purge” and the resulting impact on midterms.
• [16:30] – Prediction of a Democratic “bloodbath” for the GOP.
• [17:50] – Senate spotlight: Sherrod Brown’s comeback and the path to Democratic Senate control.

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Overall Tone and Style

The episode is direct, analytical, and laced with Popok’s trademark wit and sarcasm. Throughout, he blends legal, political, and cultural perspectives, aiming his commentary largely at listeners who are critical of Trump and attendant MAGA strategies—yet he grounds each take with polling, demographic data, and real-world examples. The concluding segments focus on Democratic strategy and the opportunities emerging from Trump’s fracturing coalition.

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For those who want a comprehensive, data-driven exploration of how Trump’s actions are unraveling Republican unity—and boosting Democratic prospects—this episode of Legal AF delivers sharp analysis, memorable moments, and a forecast for dramatic political change as the midterms approach.

Transcript

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[Michael Popak]

Donald Trump who's more responsible for the cratering of support for the Republican Party and MAGA as we head into the midterms than Donald Trump. Every poll that's come out in the last 24 to 48 hours demonstrates that the election results last night in Indiana, particularly A canary in a coal mine moment where Donald Trump is celebrating him cannibalizing his own party, weakening it for the general election and for Democrats to take those seats in the general election in the state Senate in Indiana. And now new pollings come out that said exactly what we've been covering here on Legal AF and Midas Touch all this time, a major swing vote of Donald Trump's MAGA coalition is the Hispanic vote. And the Hispanic vote is firmly against Donald Trump and has continued attacks even in the last 24 hours against the Pope is not helping him with Hispanic Catholics. I'm Michael Popak. We'll talk about election night in America and the results and what it really shows about Donald Trump's suicide mission to kill off MAGA before his term is over. That's the only way to explain it. I'm Michael Popak. Let's get down to the last few hours and polling and election nights as Americans tried to signal to their elected officials where the political mood and wind is. And it's completely against Donald Trump. Let's focus for a moment on his failing poll numbers. Okay. February of last year, before he announced his tariff scheme against 200 countries that backfired so spectacularly in his face, he was at a relative high in terms of polling. Right. He was somewhere around 45 to 47% approval rating. Okay, where is he now? He's now in the low 30s, having dropped about 15 points about a point every month since that high point in February. He's now down in, and I'm doing this to troll Donald Trump. He's now down around the Jimmy Carter numbers and for, and, and Trump has made no, has no bones about saying that Jimmy Carter was a failed president. Well, your numbers are at that failed presidency level, even lower than after January 6, heading equally to George Bush numbers. How did it happen? Well, if you look at the charts and CNN did a good chart graph on this recently, you start with about five major events, each shaving off about three points of favorability from Donald Trump over the last 15 months, April of last year. Tariffs get announced and they fail. Shave off a couple of points. Then you have his rollout of the National Guard and armed forces against the American people in major blue cities. Shave off three points. Then you've got the killings, the assassinations on the streets of Minneapolis by ice of Renee Good and Alex Preddy. Shave off a couple of points. You've got his handling or mishandling and cover up of the Epstein child sex trafficking scandal and the COVID up of the COVID up, shave off a couple of points. Then you have at the end of February almost a year to bookend my discussion from the high point of his favorability. A year later he announces the war in Iran at the end of February and we see how that has again backfired on him as he can't figure out a way to get out of the war he started on. A folly with half baked ideas and it all results. All that Iran war stuff results in higher gas prices. When you go from tariffs down to gas prices, you now understand how he dropped 15 points in recent polling. Unfavorability on the economy, it's worse. 23, 24 25% favorability rating 70% or more of America, including a healthy number of Republicans and almost all the independents have rejected Donald Trump on his key signature feature of his administration, the economy. I thought that's why we elected a criminal business in businessman in chief. Forget it. And then if you thought Trump was done decimating his own political alliances and coalition that he needs at the midterms and got him elected, you'd be wrong. Let's look at the Hispanic and Hispanic Catholic vote in a poll that just came out in the last day or so, an Ipso poll, 50% of Hispanics, 50% of Hispanics polled know someone who's been caught up in Trump's immigration and migration policies of removal or deportation. In fact, 50, I'm sorry, 60% of them know somebody. 50% of them either carry citizenship documents on them or passports or their immigration papers because they're afraid of being picked up and deported accidentally. A fascinating number. Six out of ten Americans believe that America is no longer welcoming to immigrants. And that's a bad thing. Tourist visas are way down, including from Canada, what had been our number one tourist partner, but also business visas are down. So travel visas are down. The tourist visa, business visas are way down. People don't want to come to America. I have friends that are retiring overseas that would never would have thought of doing that in any era other than the Trump era. Our next sponsor had a story that really resonated with me, especially with everything around metabolism and trying to approach it the right way. This podcast is sponsored by Verasity. Ali Egan, Verasity's founder, CEO and certified hormonal health coach, experienced compromised metabolic health firsthand, including years of undiagnosed Hashimoto's, an autoimmune disease that impacts the thyroid. She found functional medicine which focused on underlying root causes and helped her take her health back into her own hands. Verasity was created to give people access to holistic solutions and support optimal health with their most popular product, metabolism Ignite. You get an all natural caffeine free formula made with ingredients like lemon verbena, hibiscus extract, green coffee bean extract and magnesium. Clinical trials showed no negative side effects from the ingredients. I like that it's a simple doctor formulated option to support your metabolism. So learn from Ali and make the switch to Veracity. Head to Veracity Health Co and use code Legalif for up to 65% off your order. Once again, that's V E R A C I T Y Health Co for 65% off your next order Health and make sure you use my promo code Legal AF so they know I sent you. Then you've got with the Hispanic vote, which is now 73 to 74% abandoning Donald Trump, you've got the attacks on Pope Leo that continue. You would think after J.D. vance tried a test run as a newly minted Catholic who's out with a book called Communion about his conversion to Catholicism, you'd think they would do a cleanup and stop attacking the Pope, one of the world's spiritual leaders, a leader of a nation, you know, a leader of a country, if you will, the Holy See, and somebody to which not only Catholics look up to as a moral compass and a voice of reason in a topsy turvy world, but non Catholics as well. I'm Jewish. I've had my favorite popes. Right. I love Francis for many reasons. I mean, my daughter's not named after him, but you know, I do, I do appreciate the Franciscan ideals that he embraced. And going after the first American Pope is not manufacturing new voters for Donald Trump. In fact, Marco Rubio, now the Secretary of State, who's also a Catholic, Cuban American, he's now got to go meet with the Pope on bended knee literally to clean up the mess. I mean, they're talking up a big game. Oh, Marco Rubio is going to go over there. We're going to have a heart to heart conversation about foreign policy. Yeah, I don't think that's what's going to happen at the Vatican. I just don't see it that way. After Marco Rubio is done kissing his ring as his own spiritual leader, the Pope, you know, and here's Donald Trump again attacking Pope Leo in the last 24 hours, killing any chance he has of reviving the Hispanic vote. Play the clip.

[Interviewer]

You've had this back and forth with Pope Leo. I wish Pope Leo would talk about Jimmy Lai. You talk about Jimmy Lai with, with The Chairman. Will you be bringing him up again?

[Donald Trump]

I will. I brought him up and there's a lot of, There's a little bitterness, I would say, with him and Jimmy Lai, you know, he was. Hong Kong was not as easy, but I will be, I will be bringing.

[Interviewer]

I wish the Pope would. I want the Pope to talk about Jimmy Lyon. I want you to bring him home. That would be a good deal.

[Donald Trump]

Well, the Pope would rather talk about the fact that it's okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. And I don't think that's very good. I think he's endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people. But I guess if it's up to the Pope, he, he thinks it's just fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

[Interviewer]

He's from Chicago. You got to learn a few things. He's from Chicago.

[Michael Popak]

There's a lot of confusion. I live in a highly Hispanic Catholic community in Miami, and Catholic in Hispanic radio doesn't know what to do with Trump. They want to like Trump because there's this nostalgia for dictatorship, but yet. But they love the Pope. I mean, you know, when I was a kid, you go into somebody's home and you'd see, you know, two 8 by 10 photos up on a wall. Ronald Reagan and the Pope that was like facing each other. So he's, he's created this, this schism between Hispanics having now to choose between their spiritual leader and their president, and they're abandoning Trump in droves. Now I want to talk about what just went down in Indiana and bring this all home. Because it is a level of insanity of which I am not familiar. Trump decided as a last flex to take on seven conservative Republican legislators in Indiana who refused his demand to remap Indiana. And so when he couldn't get them to remap the congressional districts and they opposed him, he primaried them bringing forward a Trumper to, to take down the, the conservative Republican. And he was successful. I mean, five out of the seven, it looks like he's going to have taken out Hooray. Except that weakens the Republican Party's chances in the midterms. That was only a primary. That just made the seven seats go hard alt right to MAGA land. That necessarily doesn't work at the midterms in the general election when there's a Democrat on the other side. So I'm actually, I don't know what the mainstream media is reporting, but I'm actually thrilled that Trump got all those MAGA to be in those to win the primary. Now they're going to be up against moderate, progressive, liberal, even conservative Democrats who now, I think, strengthen their chances. They just have to run to the left and to the center of these maga, maga. But Trump doesn't care. All he wanted to do was flex and show he could take out people that opposed him. Regardless of what happens at the midterms, it's this kind of lack of strategic thinking that will inure to the benefit of the Democrats at the midterms as we mobilize votes. So there you have it. Election night in America did not go well for Donald Trump. I just explained why the Hispanic vote running parallel with the general population vote, and the abandonment of Donald Trump by independents, by women, by voters under 30, by, by the Hispanic vote, by even the black vote, where Donald Trump didn't do too poorly in 2024. You put all that together, you plug in all of the data feeds into the model, the computer model, about what's going to happen at the midterms, and you put in all the economic feeds and gas prices and inflation and jobless recovery and the polling numbers about right direction, wrong direction. And this is going to be a bloodbath for the Republicans of their own making, of Donald Trump's own making. And that's why it's so important to focus on, yes, the House races could be a plus 30 seat advantage for the Democrats when the, when the night is over. On election night in November. The Senate, though, Sherrod Brown back in the game for a political comeback in Ohio, who won the Democratic primary to get back a Senate seat and return to the Senate. And the road to the Democrats getting the majority in the Senate, which is oh, so important not just for impeachment and conviction, but also for confirmation of judges and Supreme Court judges and people in Donald Trump's cabinet to finish up his term. We got to win Ohio. Democrats got to win Ohio. So I'm glad you're here. If you like this kind of reporting, Midas touch, hit the free subscribe button. And I do a lot of my work on the channel that I founded and Curate called Legal AF. Become a YouTube subscriber there as well. Until my next report, I'm Michael Popak. Can't get your fill of Legal af? Me neither. That's why we formed the Legal AF substack. Every time we mention something in a hot take, whether it's a court filing or a oral argument, come over to the substack. You'll find the court filing and the oral argument there. Including a daily roundup that I do called Wait for it Morning af. What else? All the other contributors from Legal AOFF are there as well. We got some new reporting, we got interviews, we got ad free versions of the podcast and hot takes where Legal AF on Substack. Come over now to free subscribe

[Donald Trump]

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