Lemonade Stand Ep. 048: "AI Is Crashing Stocks" 🍋

Podcast by Aiden, Atrioc, and DougDoug
Date: February 4, 2026
Host Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the seismic shifts in tech and business brought on by recent leaps in AI, most specifically in AI coding and its ripple effects on global stock markets, business models, and jobs. The hosts—Aiden, Atrioc, and DougDoug—cut through the week's political noise to focus on under-the-radar but deeply impactful technological changes. They weave in personal experiments with AI-generated apps, discuss the crumbling of legacy software companies, examine the impact on software engineering jobs, highlight the hype and real concerns behind AI, and touch on broader economic and geopolitical themes from entrepreneurship to Chinese currency policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Political Story Overload and Setting the Episode's Focus

(03:00 - 06:12)

• The week was dominated by political headlines (including the new Epstein files), but the hosts want to pivot to “business and tech stories that are deeply impactful.”
• Aiden warns listeners not to take all online claims about the Epstein files at face value:
  • “Just give a little time for the dust to settle and don't just latch onto any tweet you see as proof.” (05:01, Aiden)

2. AI-Coding Tech Shockwaves Hit the Stock Market

(06:21 - 08:32)

• Unnoticed Market Meltdown:
  • “Basically every single software company in the tech industry is melting down. Their stocks are getting cut 30%, 40% in half. And it’s all because this entrenched layer got hit too hard... People are saying that this vibe coding thing is getting more and more of a snowball.” (06:21, DougDoug)
• Companies named: Squarespace, Wix, Duolingo, Figma, Monday.com, Adobe.
  • “Squarespace unfortunately seems like the most likely candidate” for obsolescence. (08:11, Aiden)
• “If any non-technical person can be like, make this entire thing for me, that is a much harder pitch for that company.” (07:23, DougDoug)

3. What Is "Vibe Coding" and Why Is It a Big Deal?

(08:51 - 14:16)

• Vibe Coding = AI-Driven Software Creation
  • DougDoug details the fundamental shift:
    • Previously: AI coding was like “a dumb junior engineer.”
    • Now: “Many of the most legendary programmers out there... have suddenly been saying what just happened? This stuff is now really, really, really good.”
      • Quote from Andrej Karpathy:
        • “The profession is being dramatically refactored… magnitude 9 earthquake is rocking the profession. Roll up your sleeves to not fall behind.” (Karpathy quoted, 10:16)
• The leap was triggered by Anthropic's Claude Code and other advanced LLMs (Large Language Models).
  • AI’s capability went from small-task helper to “work on giant codebases,” now rivaling senior engineers’ productivity.

4. A/B Testing the New AI—Personal App-Building Demos

(16:34 - 20:00)

• Host Experiments: Each host built a basic app by typing plain-English requests to generative AI.
  • Aiden and Doug made custom checklist apps:
    • “Rather than scroll through documentation... I just typed my vague idea into ChatGPT and it made this.” (19:01, Aiden)
    • “Tracking apps that do exactly what mine does... cost money... now it's free. That explains to me why these stocks are dropping.” (23:04, DougDoug)
• Insight:
  • The immediacy of tailored software signals existential risk for SaaS companies.

5. Broader Impacts: Workflows and Professional Disruption

(23:38 - 27:06)

• “Any kind of workflow you have in a professional environment can be handled by these things at this point to like 99% accuracy.” (24:58, DougDoug)
• Replit is highlighted as the next step—immediate web app deployment.
• Caveats: Still gaps for non-technical users due to backend and security complexities.
  • “It was just too technical… once that final step is over, it’s going to be crazy.” (54:44, DougDoug)

6. Where AI Is NOT (Yet) Winning: Gaming

(27:24 - 29:16)

• Example: Google’s Genie 3, which hyped automated game creation, fizzled out after initial stock panics.
• “There is... unlike this, this is not even in the realm of like... It was just sort of generating images that faked the look of other games.” (28:21, DougDoug)

7. The Education Dilemma: Learning vs. Dependence on AI

(39:55 - 45:55)

• New research: Students using AI for coding “scored 17% lower than those who coded by hand.”
  • “People using AI to code, understand what they wrote and understand the tool less.” (40:07, DougDoug citing Anthropic study)
• The danger: Most users will default to having AI do the work, leading to “measurably dumber” outcomes.
  • “Most people are just completely farming out their essay writing... making them completely unable to remember concepts.” (41:58, DougDoug)

8. The Ethical & Economic Paradox for Coders

(47:00 - 52:44)

• Aiden: Loss of basic knowledge in the workforce mirrors US manufacturing offshoring.
• “As time passes and people become increasingly reliant... you’re losing that base knowledge behind coding over time.” (39:19, Aiden)
• Nick’s personal story: Choosing to learn despite AI’s shortcut, showing human-driven learning is now a privilege.

9. Entrepreneurs: The New Gold Rush, or Fool’s Errand?

(53:10 - 80:34)

• “This lowers a bunch of barriers for you bringing your idea to fruition.” (53:24, Aiden)
• Risks of entrepreneurship hype: Not for everyone; dangers of predatory marketing.
  • “Yes, there’s scummy marketing... I think that there’s a lot of value that can happen in the world if we give every person the opportunity to take a crack at what they want to do.” (79:51, DougDoug)
• “There should be equality of opportunity... so that for the people that have those ideas and the ambition, they're able to pursue them.” (82:12, Aiden)

10. Financial Tomfoolery & Tech Giant Drama

(56:26 - 62:54)

• Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle: Alleged circular funding revealed to be less solid than advertised.
  • “Nvidia invested $100 billion in OpenAI, who then said they’re going to buy data centers from Oracle, who’s going to buy chips from Nvidia...” (57:17, DougDoug)
  • Stock dramas as CEOs soft-pedal commitments; OpenAI’s struggles with revenue, layoffs, and disappointing releases.

11. TikTok’s Ownership Shuffle and the Data Trap

(63:43 - 70:43)

• After regulatory pressure, TikTok “sold” to a new US-based entity, but ByteDance retains 19.9% and licenses the algorithm.
  • “It's more data tracking than before... still an algorithm run and fundamentally developed by the Chinese company.” (67:09, DougDoug)
• Despite user talk of boycotts, “user base has rebounded exactly to 90 million daily users after a brief dip.” (69:49, DougDoug)

12. Geopolitics: China’s Play for Reserve Currency and Gold

(88:01 - 95:39)

• China announces push for yuan as global reserve currency, but faces structural hurdles (capital controls, currency peg, trust issues).
  • “China is building the world's largest gold vault... more and more evidence that's a real direction of travel to get off the dollar.” (91:47, DougDoug)
• Caution: China’s long-term strategy is real, but it's not without missteps (case in point: the handling of the real estate bubble).

13. Book Club Preview—If Everyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

(85:10 - 87:43)

• The book explores how misaligned AI reward systems could pose existential risks, paralleling how human evolution leads to craving unhealthy rewards.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI’s Impact on Software Workers:
  “The profession is being dramatically refactored… Everyone has to figure out how to hold it and operate it while the resulting magnitude 9 earthquake is rocking the profession.” (10:16, DougDoug quoting Karpathy)
• On the Leap in AI Capabilities:
  “[Nine months ago,] AI is... helpful, but you need a person. Now, you have people... going like, yeah, this stuff’s just going to do everything.” (51:44, DougDoug)
• Real-World Consequence of AI-Built Apps:
  “Tracking apps that do exactly what mine does... cost money... now it's free. That explains to me why these stocks are dropping.” (23:04, DougDoug)
• On Education Dilemmas:
  “People using AI to code, understand what they wrote and understand the tool less… the average person is going to go make a prototype... but there are shortcomings.” (40:07, DougDoug)
• On Entrepreneurship and Opportunity:
  “There doesn't need to be equality of outcome, there needs to be equality of opportunity. People. There needs to be a baseline that gives people the stable like life and education, so that for the people that have those ideas and the ambition, they're able to pursue them.” (82:12, Aiden)
• Financial Tomfoolery:
  “They’re all kind of being messy divas and throwing little messages at each other, which is causing all their stocks to kind of reverse circle jerk... it's a bit of an unwind.” (60:43, DougDoug)
• On TikTok’s ‘Boycott’:
  “Every so-called boycotter has come back. The TikTok user base has rebounded exactly to 90 million daily users after a brief dip.” (69:49, DougDoug)
• On China and Gold:
  “China is building the world’s largest gold vault... more and more evidence that’s a real direction of travel to get off the dollar.” (91:47, DougDoug)
• Book Club Take:
  “If you are listening, you hate AI. Boy, we got a book for you. Read this book and you’ll just be furious about the AI companies.” (87:20, DougDoug)

Timestamps for Critical Segments

• AI Coding Hits Wall Street: 06:21 – 08:32
• Real Experiences with AI App Building: 16:34 – 20:00
• AI's Looming Impact on Jobs & Education: 39:55 – 45:55
• Circular Funding Drama (Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle): 56:26 – 62:54
• TikTok Ownership Shuffle & Data Concerns: 63:43 – 70:43
• China’s Reserve Currency Ambitions: 88:01 – 95:39

Tone & Personality

• The hosts maintain a lively, occasionally irreverent back-and-forth, blending nerdy passion, skepticism, and self-deprecating humor.
• Deep tech analysis is made accessible with plenty of analogies and personal stories (e.g., using AI to build checklist apps, struggles to avoid “brain poison” of short video).
• Regular veering into meta-commentary—about how they’re summarizing, how tech hype works, and the nature of learning itself—keeps things engaging for both novices and industry insiders.

Conclusion

This episode offers a brisk, entertaining, and thought-provoking overview of how the last two months in AI have started to crash stock prices, upend old business models, and create existential dilemmas for everyone from software engineers to digital entrepreneurs. Whether you’re worried about job loss, excited about new tools, or simply trying to keep up, it’s a must-listen for anyone serious about the intersection of AI, business, and society.

For further discussion, check out Lemonade Stand’s Patreon for bonus episodes and their book club deep dive on AI risk.