The Gen Z Protests Go Global | Ep. 035 Lemonade Stand 🍋

Summary

Lemonade Stand Ep. 035 🍋

The Gen Z Protests Go Global
Date: October 29, 2025
Hosts: Aiden, Atrioc, and DougDoug
[A Vox Media Podcast Network show]

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Aiden, Atrioc, and DougDoug (in One Piece cosplay, for reasons semi-connected to the subject) dissect the recent wave of Gen Z-led global protests—sparked by political and economic grievances and symbolized by the adoption of the “Jolly Roger” flag from One Piece. The hosts also break down the current dynamics of the U.S. government shutdown, unfolding trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and shine a light on positive global economic and poverty reduction trends, with a special focus on Poland’s economic rise.

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Main Topics & Key Insights

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1. Gen Z Protests: From Nepal to Global Phenomenon

[02:03 – 14:10]

• Origin & Spread:

  • The wave of Gen Z protests started notably in Nepal, with young people ousting the government and holding new elections, inspired by anger at elite corruption (“nepo babies”).
  • The movement gained symbolic unity by waving the One Piece “Jolly Roger” flag, now seen in protests from Southeast Asia to Africa.
  • “Gen Z is becoming the new force in global politics.” (B, 02:12)

• Common Threads in Various Countries:

  • Protests often begin with youth, especially students, organizing via social media around issues like government corruption, resource mismanagement, or legislative overreach.

  • Governments often react by attempting to crack down on social media, fueling escalation to street protests.

  • Young populations (median age as low as 19 in places like Madagascar)—with high youth unemployment and little political power—are a driving force.

  • “The main thing they all have in common is they all have been using this flag. The One Piece Jolly Roger.” (B, 06:55)

• Case Studies:

  • Philippines: #OneTrillionPeso Movement (corruption in water system)
  • Sri Lanka: Protests against Online Safety Act (attempted social media ban)
  • Bangladesh: Job quota protest, successfully reduced by the Supreme Court by July 2024
  • Timor Leste: Protests over SUV purchases and parliamentary pensions—goal achieved

• Why One Piece?

  • The Jolly Roger flag’s adoption is less about anime fandom, more as a symbol of rebellion and the “fight against a world government.”
    • “The general themes of One Piece is that piracy is about freedom...scrappy young group of people who desire freedom versus the establishment military that is in charge.” (C, 15:22)
    • Many protesters may not be deep fans, but the flag’s message resonates as anti-establishment.

• Demographics & Global Implications:

  • Youth-dominated nations, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, have enabled mass mobilizations.
  • The protests, varying in success and scale, are described as “putting entrenched elites on notice that politics is a social contract, not a license to loot.” (B, quoting another line, 19:30)
  • A significant risk: power vacuums often filled by military intervention, as in Madagascar.

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2. U.S. Government Shutdown Update

[22:29 – 34:02]

• Shutdown Status:

  • Day 28 of the U.S. government shutdown—nearing the record of 34 days.

  • Major consequences looming:

    • Air traffic controllers working without pay, potential travel chaos.
    • USDA not distributing food stamps (SNAP) as of November 1—impacting 40 million Americans.
    • Federal workers missing paychecks; banks offering emergency deferrals.

  • “There are 40 million Americans who use food stamps to get by...the well has run dry.” (A, 24:07)

• Stalemate Analysis:

  • Democrats want to guarantee ACA health insurance subsidies remain; Republicans want to pass a continuing budget first.
  • Federal worker unions are urging Democrats to reopen government, even if it means postponing the ACA subsidy battle.
  • Both sides face difficult political optics, with little movement so far.

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3. U.S.–China Trade Tensions & Rare Earth Minerals

[34:02 – 61:07]

• Escalation Dynamics:

  • Trump and Xi Jinping set to meet at an Asia economic forum after a year of trade escalations.
  • China’s restriction on rare earth mineral exports (crucial to tech, military, EVs) gives them unprecedented global leverage.
    • “This is like the opening salvo of a trade World War Three...for the first time in 50 years, a country credibly has escalation dominance over America.” (B, 36:26)

• Tariffs & Leverage:

  • Trump has imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, countered by China halting soybean imports from the U.S.—devastating Midwestern farmers.

  • Trump recently lined up one-sided trade deals with Southeast Asian nations, but these may not alter the greater U.S.-China imbalance.

  • China’s export controls include manufacturing technology—not just raw minerals. Building alternatives takes decades.

  • “China has succeeded in establishing itself as a world power that, that has our balls. And it’s kind of incredible.” (A, 44:07)

  • “It is, it is the first time in our lifetimes and beyond, 50 plus years.” (B, 43:06)

• Global Impact:

  • Europe is caught in the crossfire—case study: Dutch chip firm "Nexperia" seized by the Netherlands, instantly punished by China blocking chip supply.
  • Canada-US alliance strained as Canadian tariffs lead Ottawa to pursue trade with China instead.

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4. Signs of Global Progress: Poverty Reduction and Poland’s Economic Miracle

[63:05 – 87:00]

• Falling Global Poverty:

  • Share of people worldwide living below the $3/day (PPP-adjusted) poverty line has dropped from 43% in 1990 to 10% today.
  • Especially dramatic changes in China (from 97% in 1981 to near zero), India (60% to 5%), and Vietnam.
  • “If you look at China in 1981...97% of China was in that state. That is over a billion people.” (A, 69:00)
  • The lived reality for people at this threshold is still dire: self-sustaining agriculture and little/no infrastructure.

• A Closer Look at Poland:

  • Poland’s transformation from a poor post-Soviet economy to an EU success story.
  • Huge influx of EU funds ($245 billion since 2004) invested in infrastructure, manufacturing, education (especially digital/tech).
  • Average wages up 7-8x, high-quality job growth, reversing “brain drain.”
  • Poland now approaching the UK in per capita income, with improved living standards widely felt.
  • “My Polish editor....was like, no, it's. You really can tell. Just in the last 10 years....everything has just been improving and getting nicer and everybody’s noticing it and appreciating it.” (A, 85:11)
  • Downsides: Very low birth rate, heavy reliance on cheap labor, robust military spending, and potential for future transition challenges as costs rise.
  • Polish work ethic compared to more relaxed Western European countries, e.g., France.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Gen Z is becoming the new force in global politics."
  – (B, 02:12)

• "The main thing impeding [Luffy’s] ability to do this or the thing that is restricting the freedom of not only him, but people around the world is billionaires. Is Jeff Bezos, who’s in One Piece as well."
  – (C, 15:22)

• On Jolly Roger protests:
  – "It's a high-level thing, not like you need to see episodes." (B, 18:12)

• On global demographics:
  – "Africa and Southeast Asia are shockingly young by comparison…Madagascar...the median age is 19." (B, 08:39)

• On U.S. rare-earth dependency:
  – “They are fucking ready.” (B, 41:16)

• On Poland’s economic transformation:
  – "It’s catching up. It’s closing this gap...so much faster." (C, 79:52)

• A moment of comic relief:
  – “We know and love him.” (C, 04:35)
  – (On One Piece character rankings. Episode is frequently punctuated by self-mocking breaks about their lack of anime knowledge.)

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Segment Timestamps

• Costumes, One Piece, and Protest Symbolism: 00:00 – 02:07
• Gen Z Protests Origin & Nepal Case Study: 02:07 – 07:33
• Spread Across Philippines, Sri Lanka, Africa: 07:33 – 12:07
• One Piece Symbolism Explained: 14:10 – 18:20
• Trade Wars/US-China: Rare Earths, Soybeans, & Economic Escalation: 34:02 – 61:07
• Canada, Nexperia, and Global Alliances: 61:07 – 63:05
• Signs of Societal Progress & Poverty Reduction: 63:05 – 73:22
• Poland’s Economic Success Story: 73:22 – 87:00
• Community Discussion & Corrections (last episode): 87:00 – 90:50

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Tone & Style

The hosts are irreverent but thoughtful, blending deep dives and data with jokes, banter, and ironic self-deprecation (especially about their One Piece fandom/costumes). They contextualize complex world events in an accessible, conversational style, occasionally pausing for corrections, comic relief, and meta-commentary on their own expertise.

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Conclusion

This episode provides a wide-angle view of how global youth movements, critical resource dependencies, and shifting economic powers are reshaping the world right now, all filtered through the playful but sharp lens of the Lemonade Stand crew. The conversations offer both sober warnings (about political gridlock and upcoming global showdowns) and hope (on the immense progress the world has made in poverty and development).

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For further discussion and bonus episodes, listeners are encouraged to join the Lemonade Stand Patreon and contribute their own perspectives, especially from within countries discussed (e.g., Poland).

Transcript

[A]

Hey everyone, it's me, Luffy, here with Chombo and Zorro. And today we're going to be talking.

[B]

I'm the One Piece.

[A]

Oh, I'm here with One Piece and Chombom on. And you might be wondering. Wait a minute. I've heard there's a whole lot of protests going on around the world that are apparently using the Jolly Roger frag. I just learned about that. And that's why we're in these costumes. I didn't understand why we're in these costumes right now. Because I don't know One Piece. Brendan, what is going on?

[B]

Five minutes before the thing goes. So what does this have to do with One Piece? We're like putting on One Piece costumes wearing.

[A]

I thought you just picked a random theme. I had no clue.

[B]

I don't know anything about One Piece. You guys must be a One Piece experts. I thought you Japan, anime.

[A]

I am old as I am old like you, Aiden.

[C]

Do I look like I know would know about One Piece?

[B]

To be honest, yes.

[C]

Okay, I gotta. I gotta level with you guys.

[B]

Level with me.

[C]

So I thought we had One Piece costumes in the office that Ludwig had left around.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And I arrived this morning said we don't.

[B]

This could be. As far as I know, it could be. Because I know so little about One Piece that this could be the main character, the wolf.

[C]

Surely there's a wolf in the 2000 episodes of One Piece.

[A]

What's your favorite character in One Piece? Aiden, you literally know the most of us.

[B]

You're our expert.

[C]

It's crazy that I know the most. Uh. Oh man. I hate to pick the Mario, but I think if you say Luffy, I think Luffy's thing.

[B]

This is a disgrace.

[C]

This is a disgrace. You know all the other. I don't know, Usopp's annoying. Don't really like Sonic.

[A]

People are never gonna come to our show for anime takes again. Aiden, you're ruining it.

[B]

We're trying to take over Trash Taste spot.

[A]

That's the whole. He wants to encroach on both the yard and Trash Taste.

[C]

And.

[A]

And Joe Rogan. Yeah.

[C]

When Loopy. When Loopy. Gum Gum. Gatling Gum.

[A]

Yeah, we can't interact.

[B]

What the heck's going on in the world? Explain why this is important.

[A]

Genuinely.

[B]

That's the eyes, Aiden. Sad folks, because there's a lot of political unrest in Southeast Asia and Africa.

[C]

Okay, I don't even want to talk about it anymore.

[B]

And it makes him so upset. So. So if you could pull up my screen here for a second. All right. Gen Z is becoming the new force in global politics. And that's sort of what I wanted to bring this up because we've talked a bit about Nepal specifically. Nepal had a Gen Z protest that led to some radical change and used the Jolly Roger flag. But this despite having started a little bit before, Nepal was the moment it became a movement and now it's spreading all over a lot of countries. So these countries specifically have all had Gen Z based protests that either radically changed their government, got them to back down on some major legislation or issue, you know, led to the deposition of somebody in power, led to protests or violence or death. So it's all, it's all. It's various stages of good to bad that I would like to rank on my patented.

[C]

Oh cool.

[A]

It's a tier list. Okay, so you want to rank on this?

[C]

You. Okay, you tell me how this works.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. So if a country is having a good protest, that's obviously a good protest. I know this guy tier because Nami's a hero in that's a Chef.

[A]

I know that. I watched 20 episodes.

[B]

A bad one. It's obviously skull Fro.

[A]

Okay, so look, we talked. Let's just, let's establish some ground rules here. We talked about Nepal. In Nepal, very small country in the, in the east. And they had this successful protest by Gen Z that basically kicked out the existing government and has elected this new. There's a new parliament. All this craziness and it's gone very well was our conclusion so far. Where would you rank them?

[B]

Where would I rank Nepal?

[C]

That's such a good question really, because it's such a clear X and Y.

[B]

Axis, an X and Y. And I've got the Nepalese flag, right? I mean not the cool one, the square one. And, and clearly, I mean, why do you like this guy so much, Aiden?

[A]

Tell me.

[C]

Sanji. I don't like Sanji.

[B]

And that's why I. It's not a Sanji tier thing. Obviously I was joking. But this guy right here, this guy, you know him, you love him.

[C]

We know and love him.

[B]

That guy.

[A]

Okay, so that's our.

[C]

In the chopper. In the chopper. Captain tier.

[B]

Captain tier. That's where Nepal falls, obviously.

[C]

So I hate to be the bearer of bad news here.

[B]

Tell me that, that.

[C]

But maybe we, maybe we scrap the chart and just do things the old fashioned way, huh?

[A]

We have to reach the kids. Dude, everybody knows one piece.

[C]

I think if we go a guy.

[A]

In a dog suit, I, we get that mask back on and you break down what's going on with the government shutdown?

[C]

If we go through with this, I think the young will hate us more.

[B]

We're trying to reach out to them.

[C]

And we're trying to reach out.

[B]

I wore this one piece outfit of the one piece. Okay, all right. Realistically, you guys both know, I think the high level of Nepal. But I wanted to go through some of the other ones because here's the thing, these all would be seen as disparate, unconnected events and except they all have deep things in common. Number one, they pretty much all start with young people on social media mad about some change by the government. So it varies. Like, you know, I can go through some of these. So this is Philippines. This is the trillion. The one trillion peso movement. They had corruption in the Philippines with regards to their water system and a lot of money that was supposed to be used on getting clean water to people and building that out was getting siphoned off and somebody totaled it all up and it was over 1 trillion pesos, which is like $33 billion. And so they started this movement of like, we want our 1 trillion pesos that you stole from us back and like use for. That's what it kicked off. So. So that starts getting posted about on social media and then the government in almost all these cases tries to crack down on social media. Not all of them, but in. Oh geez. In many of them, they try to find some way to contain or suppress a message that is going viral outside of their media channels, at which point it almost always turns to public, in person protests like this that then march on the Capitol or parliament building and ask for real change. So this is a trillion pesos. We, I mean, they become massive. And again, these get a lot bigger than just Gen Z, but universally they start with like students, Gen Z, young people. And the other thing they all have in common is they all have been using this flag. The one Piece Jolly Roger. Now, I am admittedly not an anime expert and not a one piece expert, but when I saw this is the original one that went viral. We'll go back to this. This is the one that went viral. This is the one in Nepal of the burning. It's like an iconic photo. And until this photo, it really wasn't popping up all over. After this photo, all of these movements all over the world are like united in this one Piece Jolly Roger. Like many people that are protesting in Madagascar right now were in the directly say they were inspired by the Nepal movement. Because the Nepal movement is so far probably the Most public example and also the most successful.

[A]

I mean, yeah, you can see that.

[B]

It'S clearly based on the serialize.

[C]

If you just took a quick glance at this, you would already know that. You would know.

[B]

And you know, as a quick recap, students in Nepal started a hashtag nepo baby thing where young broke people were like looking at rich kids of well connected people in Nepalese society. And they tried to crack down on that. They had a big protest again, there was some violence and some death. Relatively small for the size of the protest. And they got rid of the leader who fled the country. And the military did not have a coup, which is one of the big things you have to worry about. And they on discord, elected a new prime minister, interim prime minister to hold new elections. And she was considered to be a good choice. Anti corruption, like it's considered to be the model outcome as you can get from a protest. And so everybody wants to do this. And not all of them are having the same level of the tier list is like my.

[C]

Yeah, I think the flag's upside down too.

[B]

That's on Doug. That's not me.

[C]

You wouldn't put the maple leaf upside down. You know what I'm saying?

[B]

Okay. So, I mean, I could go through like kind of an order here. Again, you can see it spread out. It started at Sri Lanka back in 20, 22 and 23. There's like the earliest. Here's one thing they all have in common. I want to try and make that clear. You can look at this chart. Notice a certain part of the world is shaded a little bit lighter right there. This is median age. As everyone else in the world gets increasingly older, as you can see, Europe's average age is 42, or median age, I'm sorry, median age is 42. America's 38. China's even older than that. I don't have the exact number on me. Japan's even older than that. Africa and Southeast Asia are shockingly young by comparison. Viral. Yeah, sure, they were viral 20 years ago or whatever. And so like Madagascar, where one of these big protests is happening now, the median age is 19. So they have a lot of Gen Z. They have no political power. They have high youth unemployment, even higher than here or in more established countries. You know, China, which have high youth unemployment. And they are, you know, essentially screaming for opportunity. They're screaming for security, opportunity, economic opportunity, and to be heard in political enfranchisement. And because they're not getting these things, it's just waiting for a powder keg waiting for something to happen. So it's been a lot of different things. Like in Sri Lanka it was the Online Safety act, which again tried to ban social media in Sri Lanka, that's what caused them to go off. In Bangladesh they had a job quota system that gave, you know, good paying government jobs to a specific group of people average students couldn't get. So this job quota thing got really bigger. Pissed off about that and again they made progress. So in Bangladesh the Supreme Court cut the quotas by July of 24. So it was successful. In Sri Lanka they toppled the president, but then I think they toppled the next president like a year later. Uh, so they were like varying degrees of success until Nepal was then kicked off this, this then it just started spreading and it started going over, hit, hit Africa, hit other Southeast Asian countries and yeah, I mean I can go through some more of them. In, in Timor Lest here, which is a country I didn't know much about, they were trying to buy.

[A]

What was the name of that?

[B]

Timor Lest.

[C]

I.

[A]

Is that wrong? I've never heard of that in my life. I'm sorry, this is, this is also.

[C]

The first time I've heard.

[A]

I'm so sorry to the people of Timor Lest.

[B]

I didn't know about it until this. They are again a small country, not a big budget. So when they, I can see why they're frustrated not being heard just within that tiny country. Maybe it's like a small town. The government bought 65 brand new high end SUVs for the people in power.

[A]

We got to invest into the like.

[B]

In America it's like that's not a really big expense. But that was considered to be like a huge overspend that caused people. That was the, that was the match that lit it off.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And so in, in Dealey, their capital city, they had a big protest and they canceled the SV purchase and then scrapped these lifetime pensions that were going to roll out also for parliament politicians.

[A]

Interesting.

[B]

So again it's just, it's just more about people feeling like they can see. I think with social media it's becoming more apparent. They can see where the money being siphoned out of their country is going to, it's going to the rich and well connected and it's making them. And they don't have anything to lose. That's really what's the key, I think why this is not happening so much in more well developed countries is even if it's worse for the young, it's not, it's not so devastatingly bad. Like it is in some of these.

[C]

Countries where you still have like a backstop of maybe more built up material comfort that you are. Have to think about forfeiting when you, when you lay it all on the line to, to, to wait for.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. And then also based on the median ages, you know, it's like you are just a bigger percentage of people. You are just, you know that a lot of people are behind you, whereas.

[C]

Well, that has to be the largest impact. Right. Like it's. You have the numbers advantage in a way that we've talked about the opposite when we went through the Generations episode.

[A]

Yeah. How the boomers, because they're so big of a generation, have just dominated everything, their whole lives because they can just vote whatever benefits them and vote themselves into power. And that makes sense if you look at the. I was looking at this earlier today, like the demographics of a lot of countries. In Africa, for example, the birth rate is insanely high. I think it was a decade or two ago, but then birth rate in Nigeria was the highest in the world. It was seven. So that's every woman on average is having seven kids, which means probably most people, you know, are having like eight or nine kids. It's down to only five right now, which is still compared to, for example, South Korea is what, point seven. It's like. Yeah, it's an interesting thing going on where like the developed countries around the world are not having children and our populations are all like starting to decline rapidly. And then there's. It is exploding still in particularly Africa.

[C]

But in all these people, these places, you have the quantity of young people that demand the change.

[A]

Yeah, of course, yeah. Because then you. Yes, then you have tens of millions of people. Nigeria has 200 million people.

[B]

Did you know that?

[A]

Yeah, that's an insanely large number of people. And like a huge percentage of that are like, Gen Z.

[B]

That is crazy.

[C]

Actually.

[B]

I knew it was, I knew it was big, but 200 billion is like 2/3 of America in a much smaller size.

[A]

Right, right. It's. It's crazy. Oh, excuse me. 232 million. It's like close to America. It's, it's crazy how. And so. And again, if you think of the demographics of this, because their population has grown so rapidly over the past couple decades, it's like you're saying massive sort of Gen Z band, right in their demographic graph.

[B]

It is funny that the Gen Z protests in South Korea in 20 years are gonna be like five. Guys, listen up. So, yeah, I mean, look, the Jolly Roger is the core theme here. After this, it's. It's. It's even hitting. I mean, this is France, so it's hitting. It's hitting youth protest movements now worldwide. I did want to. I mean, you've seen more of it than me. Can you give at least, like, a base level of why this is? Like, why is this not the Cowboy Bebop look?

[C]

Why is this not making me nervous?

[B]

One Piece fans will rip you apart.

[C]

Please, please, One Piece fans, please forgive me.

[A]

This is.

[C]

I'm just the person who happens to have consumed the most One Piece at this table.

[A]

If you want, you put on the mask. So you're anonymous. Yeah.

[B]

No one will know it's you if you're wearing that.

[A]

Okay, so explain to me, because I'm. I'm. I'm lost here. I've seen a couple episodes of One Piece.

[B]

I've seen none. I don't. I don't know why. This is the protest.

[C]

All right? I know you came to Lemonade Stand to hear this guy pulling One Piece today.

[B]

Let's look dead serious.

[C]

It's fun.

[B]

Sir, Scruffles, can you have gloves?

[C]

If I'm actually gonna explain this, I gotta take the mask off. The general idea or the general themes of One Piece is that piracy is about freedom. Luffy has this dream of becoming the king of pirates and finding the One Piece treasure, this fabled treasure, and living a life like a free life on the sea as he chases these goals and makes friends and builds his crew. Okay. But the main thing impeding his ability to do this or the thing that is restricting the freedom of not only him, but people around the world is billionaires. Is Jeff Bezos, who's in One Piece as well. And is the. The Navy or like the military of the. Of the empire that is ruling the world that One Piece exists within. And it's a one.

[A]

One part. It's a one state, one party world government.

[C]

It's a. I think so.

[A]

It is. We have an actual One Piece off screen.

[B]

I was like, I'm pretty sure it's so sagely like.

[C]

But.

[A]

And the military is bad. They're bad. Okay? They're bad.

[C]

They're in a constant battle with the military that is putting bounties on them and restrict movement and impeding the overall goal of the franchise. There's also other pirates and groups of people that they conflict with. Right? But it's generally there's this like, scrappy young group of people who desire freedom versus the establishment military that is in charge. And I think that's The.

[B]

Does the one world government ever try to ban Luffy's TikTok?

[C]

They. They don't. They haven't gotten to that arc yet. They haven't gotten that arc. They've been teasing it. I've watched like 80 episodes to be.

[B]

It's so funny that you're like, I don't like one. I don't even know much about. Only seen 80 episodes. That's more than all of Breaking Bad.

[C]

No, think about it. I've watched enough to say that like this is just too much. You know. My problems with One Piece are not the themes. I. I really enjoyed reading it for the time that I did. But I think there's. That. I think there's a very classical storyline of group of rebellious people take on the Empire to a degree. Right. And that is something that underpiece One Piece in the same. Same way it plays out in something like Star wars or other popular pieces of media that I had more. All right. One Piece. One Piece Pants tear into Crucify Me. Tear Me up. I'll probably summarize it poorly.

[B]

Pretty reasonable. I don't think. I mean this is again from the outside. I don't think that everyone in these protests are deeply knowledgeable on One Piece. I think it has become symbolic and I also think that it's a high level thing. Not like a. Like you need to see episodes.

[C]

I don't think they need to know about Skype to. To get the reference. Yeah.

[B]

But you know a couple more things that happened. Like it. Like just want to go Morocco recently this. This spread to Africa. So like this was it semi started in Kenya but that was over two years ago and then that was the end. And then after the Nepal thing and the Southeast Asia one, it has spread back to Africa in kind of a major way. And Morocco is having massive protests under the banner Gen Z 21 2, which is the. I think the bill they're trying to defeat. And they are extra pissed because so much of the money there has been siphoned towards the World cup which is coming up I think maybe in 2030 there or something like that.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And so education's been like. They're just literally defunding the things that they want or need to use and putting it towards the World cup pretty openly. And so they, you know, these people don't. They're furious about that. In. In Kenya there was a major like tax hike on the lower class that was hitting young people. They had Finance Bill 2024 again. They all these mobilized on Social media. So I think, like, the. The key takeaway, the overall theme, because we don't have to go into too many details, is just that actually I saw a line that really summarized this for me that I wanted to point out that I thought was great. It was, it was. It's putting entrenched elites on notice that politics is a social contract, not a license to loot. Many leaders will calculate their best chance of survival is to crush protests. And we were going to tier list some of these because, again, not all of these have gone well. In Madagascar specifically, I want to make sure I'm getting this right. They ended in basically a military couple. Like, there was the protest, and that caused the power to leave. But the power vacuum was quickly veiled by the military stepping in. Now, in Nepal's case, the military is so gigachad that they stepped in, stopped the protest, and then took, like, left power, gave it to. But that's not in human history. That's pretty rare. And so in Madagascar, it was filled more dangerously anyway. So they should be aware that youth movements will keep coming back. A better way of surviving is to create an environment conducive to jobs, services, and security. The leaders that cannot provide such basics will expect to see a skull and crossbones flag on a street near them soon. That's what it feels like. Yeah, I think that's pretty cool. So I don't know. I don't give any final thoughts. We don't have to, you know, that's. I just want to give an update that it's gone way farther than Nepal and it's. It has no sign of being over. By the way, I circled these, you know, Indonesia, Madagascar, Morocco, they're all still ongoing. And many of them have only been slightly buried. Like in Philippines, the president, Bong Bong Marcos, he came out and tried to, like, pretend to be on the side. Like, he was like, if I wasn't president, I'd be out there protesting with you. It's like, we're protesting you.

[C]

I watch One piece dude.

[B]

Yeah, he was basically dressing up like me and being like, guys, I get it. But they were like, they haven't had an over. Nothing's been overthrown. They just discontent. And it sort of simmered down. But it's like, ready. It's boiling to happen again. One more. One more thing could happen.

[A]

Aiden, has that ever happened in one piece where the military heads dress up like pirates and try to pretend they're one of the good guys?

[C]

I think this actually does happen.

[A]

That does Happen. All right.

[C]

This actually does happen in One piece, so.

[A]

Hey, that president really does watch One Piece, dude.

[B]

What if the real world just follows? Like, what if one piece predicts everything that's coming? Do you actually watch all a thousand.

[C]

Episodes and we find the treasury at the end?

[A]

Yeah. I want to talk today about how there's a lot of good happening across various countries in the world, actually. As much as it's so easy to focus on all the horrible things happening, the amount of poverty and people living in extreme poverty has gone way down. And we're going to dive into example, Poland, which has had a huge economic burst over the last 10 years. You look so sad about this.

[C]

I'm not sad. I'm not sad about Poland succeeding.

[A]

You looked dead inside. And I mean that in the nice way. I've just never seen you and I know you did a two and a half hour yard episode before this in the same costume.

[C]

It's been a long, it's been a long day. I, I, I think dog.

[A]

Well, before that we have, there's so many other like little stories to go over. So let's, before we talk about optimism in the world, let's hit you with more depression, you know what I mean?

[C]

Okay. Fire me up.

[A]

Government shutdown. It's day 28, ladies and gentlemen.

[B]

Shut down.

[A]

Also, we're going to get out of these costumes. Government is still shut down. Very sadly. It is day 28 right now. By the time you are watching this video, it'd probably be day 29. As a reminder, the longest ever government shutdown is 34 days. So we're six days away from that. It's getting real close. And I felt somewhat strongly that it was gonna end before 34 days because Trump cares a lot about, you know, the story and it seems like he wouldn't want to have the longest shutdown ever.

[C]

Right?

[A]

But it, there's no movement on it still at all. But as a reminder, the one month mark is where shit really gets kind of crazy.

[B]

I mean, it's already starting to happen.

[A]

Yes. Yeah. Ye. So some things that are happening. U.S. transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said, what I see coming forward, you're gonna see more staffing shortage in, in air like air control towers, which means you're gonna see more delays and more cancellations. Then he's talking about, this is on Fox News. He's talking about the air traffic controllers. They got a big fat zero. No paycheck is coming on Tuesday. So I've been out talking to our air traffic controllers and you can See the stress? So the Department of Transportation is saying there's gonna be more and more delays if this doesn't stop. The usda, the Department of Agriculture, which we learned recently for some reason is responsible for food stamps, if you pull this, Perry, they are not sending out food stamps starting November 1st. That's in three days. There are 40 million Americans who use food stamps to get by. So on their page, if you go there, it's a big warning. Things that said. Senate Democrats have now voted 12 times to not fund the food stamp program. Bottom line, the well has run dry. There will be no benefits issued November 1st. We are approaching an inflection. So it's, it's very, extremely politicized. But they are saying we do not have money. This has to end on November 1st, which is a, a big play, let's say. I, I, I don't know if it is genuinely true that there isn't the money to fund it or not, but this is gonna, well, it's wrong because.

[B]

They found money for other escalates.

[C]

Right.

[B]

They found money for the military.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

The tariff money has been applied to other things.

[A]

Yes. And SNAP is A, is $100 billion a year, not a trillion, like I said, but it's $100 billion a year, which is a ton of money. Right. So it's not like this is an easy thing to fund, but still, it's like a pretty critical thing to fund. Most people would consider. And even there are folks like Marjorie Taylor Greene who's, you know, very far right, who came out and said, like, this is absolutely unacceptable. We have to make a deal. We have to get this finished. We cannot have 40 million Americans losing.

[B]

Just shocking number of people. Yeah.

[A]

I think many people are also realizing how many people are on snap. Like, a lot of people didn't realize the scale of this program. So there's part of that as well, is like it's sort of forcing people to be aware of it.

[C]

Yeah, it's. So the use cases are so common. Like, a really good friend of mine who was just out of work for a really long time, I think a little over a year, he was on food stamps until really recently. That's how he was paying for his groceries. And he's my age, similar career trajectory, was just out of work for the past year, and that's how he was getting by. I think it's way more people than people understand and people way closer to you than you might think. If you happen to be in a position where you don't need a Program like snap. So. And I didn't realize the.

[A]

It was like one in eight people in the country. It's like a crazy amount of shot.

[B]

That'S way higher than I thought I would say. Yeah, I would have said 15 of the max.

[A]

So in what, three days, this is going to ramp up a lot and it's going to be very interesting, I guess, to see what happens. I mean, I think no matter what this is, it's going to hit an inflection point soon. And so then the question is, you know, who gives in? So again, right now the high level Democrats are basic. Republicans want to keep funding the government at the, let's say, current levels, the levels that have been used for the past two years that were voted in under Biden and that's their argument. It's the same thing. Democrats are holding this and voting no until the subsidies for health insurance that are part of the aca. Yeah, until those get basically confirmed that those are not going to go away in two months at the end of this year. So they are basically fighting to say we want to keep these benefits that you have for your health care. Republicans are saying, no, let's deal with that later. And that is the impasse. So it sounds like nothing's changed in a month.

[C]

When we do next week's episode, we'll have a way bigger update on how this plays out.

[A]

Right.

[C]

Because we'll be at the. Will already be past the longest shutdown ever. If we make it all the way until next week.

[A]

Yes.

[C]

And it'll be past this month threshold where not only has the shutdown itself been more than 30 days, but we've passed the first of the following month when a lot of people owe payments, you know, you owe your rent payment, you owe your mortgage payment and little things like that.

[A]

Yeah, millions, millions of people working for the federal government won't have a paycheck. 40 million people on SNAP won't be able to get the food that they're accustomed to. Traffic control, like airports are probably going to become even more distracted and it'll be interesting to see if we can get in and out of the country because I'm planning on traveling in two days.

[B]

Oh, the timing.

[A]

Yeah. So in theory, I'm getting out right before then. Maybe I get to come back.

[C]

Who knows?

[A]

It's, this is next week.

[B]

Controllers are wearing thin. They're taking second jobs. They're out there looking, can I drive Uber? Can I find another source of income to make ends meet?

[A]

Like the people running the airports aren't Being paid right now, getting assigned your.

[C]

Six day a week, ten hour a day air traffic control schedule right now that was already understaffed. And then being like, can I throw in a day or two of Uber into this so I can make ends meet is insane.

[B]

Dude, the guy managing my life up there to be after like a nine hour Uber shift with Aiden in a dog costume in the backseat talking about, like, it's crazy.

[C]

Somebody screaming at him because he didn't pick up the right boba tea for doordash and now he has to make sure my flight gets off the ground.

[B]

Yeah, yeah.

[A]

I mean, we're, we're just combined him and he, he can start taking Uber orders from like Cincinnati and he puts the food on the airplane. Let's get creative.

[B]

Chicago.

[C]

I really want that Chicago deep dish.

[B]

Uber flight.

[A]

Uber flight, yeah. Next week. Next week's gonna be the big one. I mean, dude, like, this is gonna be crazy.

[B]

These things do move fast at the end where it seems like there's nothing happening and then they, they get in a room.

[A]

So it's like it has to happen in the next five, four days.

[B]

We flash forward a week and it hasn't moved. That's crisis level. That's like a really bad. Because, yeah, we. I've been looking at. There's other countries similarly, like France, which are in political gridlocks. They can't pass a budget, they can't get anything done, but they have it written into their constitution in a way where if nothing gets figured out, it automatically pays out based on the previous budget. Like it got defaults. Yeah, we don't have that. Everything has to be done ad hoc and it causes real problems until we get that figured out.

[C]

It touches so many people, even visiting the bank. This week I was in line and the person in front of me was asking questions about, you know, what available programs do you guys have to support people who are affected by the shutdown right now? And most, you know, most of the big banks in the US have some sort of, some sort of help or deferral program or something like that if your income is missing for this period of time. But I think so many people have jobs that are tied to the federal government. And I'm surprised that we've reached day 28. Maybe I'm missing some big piece of news, but we've reached day 28 with so little update on the negotiation front.

[A]

Right. So shockingly, this is political and so both sides are trying to basically get the public to switch onto their side. Right. As we've talked about a bunch of times. One notable thing that I saw here is a major union that represents federal workers. The American Federation of Government Employees on Monday urged the Democrats and said stop. Like just, just fund the government for now and, and debate and work with the Republicans for long term demands around, around the ACA subsidies. Just reopen the government now. Just open it now. Because again, that's what the Republicans are saying and that's their argument. You know, standpoint is we are, we are, we want to just continue the budget the way it's been for years, the way it was under Biden. Let's just continue it right now. Democrats are saying, no, there needs to be more. So they have this union with 820,000 federal workers, like publicly telling the Democrats, stop this.

[C]

It's interesting to see because I'm not saying that's the wrong call, but it's one of those things where you could choose to point the finger in either direction right now. Right.

[A]

You could say you point the Republicans and say agree to spend more.

[C]

You know, it's like, yeah, pave and figure this out. And this was the big question we asked the first episode we introduced. The shutdown is at the end of all of this pain for so many people. Who does the gamble pay off for? Typically, the party in power, which is the Republicans right now, seem to pay the political price the most often for extending this sort of situation. But I don't know, because of how unfavorable the Democrats are and also how blatantly political messages are on a, on a site like we just every single website, every government agency website, the messaging is so intentionally angled at the Democrats. You know, is the payoff they were seeking the entire time even going to pan out? Will they just be the party that has ended up being blamed for this anyway?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, I read into that a bit. Part of it is that they don't have much to lose, though. They were already pulling atrociously.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And if they cave here, it's not like it's going to be like, oh, you know what, they're all right.

[C]

We.

[B]

Have nothing to, nowhere to go but up. And a lot of their base is demanding something be done about Trump. And this is like their own. We talk about this before. Their only bit of leverage. Like I am skeptical that they could cave here and then negotiate their way into getting the.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

What's the difference in going from like 20 approval to 15 approval at this point as well?

[A]

Yeah. The up, the potential upswing is really high. And, and the downswing is high.

[B]

Like, if they're seen as being weaker caving, which already plays into a thing that people have by the Democrats, then they could face themselves with even worse polling by giving in, you know, that saying they're, they're, they feel a bit trapped, I think. And as far as I've followed this, you know, Senate Republicans, they also poll pretty bad, and it's not been helpful for them. But Trump has maintained he's a pretty solid 40% or whatever. It's low, it's not great, you know, but it's, it's flat.

[A]

Out of a hundred.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Oh, that is bad.

[B]

Well, no, but I mean, most American presidents in our lifetimes poll around 40 to 48. Like, nobody's ever been really positive except around 9, 11 and like the beginning of your term. And so he's lower than he was in term one, and he's lower than average, but he's pulling right around, like Biden 21. Oh, and, and it's not. It's steady, it's flat. Like, people have decided pretty much where they fall, and it's going to take something bigger to make them shift out of that, I think.

[A]

Well, speaking of something bigger, Trump has been working day and night to get the shutdown resolved, specifically by going to Asia and ignoring it. So he's been traveling to Malaysia and he'll be meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea.

[B]

So this is a big deal.

[A]

Yeah, so this is big.

[B]

This is like a. Yeah.

[A]

And I wouldn't even necessarily say this is depressing news. This is just neutral news. So there's also all these trade wars going on.

[B]

Remember that?

[A]

Remember how my mugs are going to cost me fucking $100,000? I don't know what's going to happen with my mugs.

[C]

I do recall that, Doug. I do recall. Explain to me why this is a big deal? Because they've already met during his presidency this year. Right. So why is it the timing with the trade war specifically? Why does this meeting matter so much more than any previous time?

[A]

Yeah. So there's an economic forum that is happening that happens once a year in Asia. So a lot of Asian countries are all there, and that's going to include Trump. So for a while now, there's been this meeting on the docket between Trump and Xi. And while it was not necessarily going to be sorting out the trade war between the two countries, over the past few months, it has escalated. Right. So it's just, it is just simply the case. There's maybe more context that I'm missing. But as we've seen and talked about, it's just gone back and forth the whole year. Right. And so over the past few weeks, two things really, really, really ramped up. The quote, unquote, trade war, which is we talked about, what, a week ago, two weeks ago, rare earth minerals.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

So China came out and said, we are putting this, you know, basic halt or oversight on rare earth minerals and essentially showed the rest of the world that we are dependent on China, like the entire rest of the world is dependent on China's rare earth minerals. They have a monopoly. And then in turn, Donald Trump's response was to say, oh, yeah, well, Doug Dug needs to pay $100,000 on mugs now.

[B]

That'll teach you China.

[A]

That'll teach you Xi Jinping. And so he put a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods. That number has been fucking swinging around wildly all year, as we've talked about. But, you know, it was as of, what, a few months ago, he made a tweet and he did the mission accomplished thing, and he said, it's only going to be 30%.

[C]

Right.

[A]

That was. And I forget if that adds the 20 fentanyl tax, whatever. It's been changing constantly. But, yeah, but, you know, until somewhat recently, it was like, okay, there's a tepid kind of like, we think it's an agreement. It's 30%. It's a lot more than before, but it's 30. And now he, a week or two ago, was like, oh, yeah, gee, it's now 100. And so, yeah, I mean, the framework.

[B]

I saw about this, which is, I think, really interesting, is that this is like the opening salvo of a trade World War Three. I want to be clear that I don't think I overstated enough on the last episode how big a deal the rare earth mineral thing is and how powerful it is. So Trump's strategy in most negotiations is he knows that he's the leader of America, very. The strongest country. And so he feels in all negotiations that he has what you might call escalation dominance, which is like, if we're fighting and you go like, oh, yeah. And you, like, flex. And I go, oh, yeah, And I stand up and you go, oh, yeah, and you have a gun. Whoever's got the last thing, they. At the end of the day, we all know that if I push this too far, you're going to win. Like, that's. And Trump just knows that in general. And so whenever he's in a negotiation with anybody, he Just, he throws shit at the, I'll give you a thousand percent tariff, I'll get 100% tariff. He tweets crazy things about their leader. He can throw everything at the wall knowing that at the end of the day, if push came to shove, he's got escalation dominance. The idea that I saw is that this, for the first time in 50 years, a country credibly has escalation dominance over America because of how dependent everything is on these rare earth minerals. At least right now. Again, long term they could find a way off them. But China has prepared for this for years now.

[A]

Decades. Not.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, decades, decades. But.

[A]

And I say that just to emphasize I've seen people on Twitter being like, talking about what I will get into in just a second about these trade deals that Trump is announcing being like, Trump just checkmated Xi. He just made agreements with this country, this country, and we're gonna make our own supply of rare earth minerals. And it's like, you can't just do it. You don't just can't turn it on.

[B]

It's not easy.

[A]

You need millions of people who've learned to develop this industry. And there's multiple layers. I forget the exact terminology. You know, it's like if you wanna make gallium, I might be getting specific elements wrong here, but if you wanna make gallium, you need aluminum and then you need aluminum industry. But China controls the aluminum industry. You have to make it aluminum. It's like you can't, you don't just go fucking like dig it out of the ground and hire somebody out of college.

[B]

And additionally, another layer to that I didn't mention our last episode is that China has put export restrictions and controls not only on the minerals themselves, but on any of the technology used to refine, process or mine them that they create.

[A]

Damn.

[B]

So anyone building a mine in France or in Australia is buying Chinese technology and therefore China goes, okay, you can't export that to America. We control that. That is part of our. In the same way that America does for, for high end chips.

[C]

I was going to say this is the exact same thing as we do with chips where we tell that one Dutch company that they can't sell the equipment makes the chips 100%.

[B]

However rare earth minerals are, it's just becoming more obvious. It's, it's so embedded in the supply chain of almost every, I mean EVs everywhere, everything military created, the magnets that they make are, are just part of almost any like high end appliance. I can Think of it's just you, the level of control of the current modern economy with this is really becoming more and more apparent. And so it is showcasing more of the blust. Like the 100 tariff is not causing China to flinch as much as the rare earth metal is. And so, you know, I think from the outside this could be like, oh, they're going back and forth. But this really is never before seen in our lifetimes and decades before, like this, they planned for this, they prepare for this. And we said decades. But especially since the first mini trade war and Trump won, they have been like ironclad forward on reducing any dependency on America.

[C]

They can fire back.

[A]

Yes, yes, yes, yes. Yeah.

[B]

So, you know, people look for who to blame. And I can give you the little timeline which is like there was this ongoing trade war. They negotiated it down there like a 30%. It was okay.

[A]

And this is all this year, right then.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And then America would say they kicked it off by not buying our soybeans. That's what it was.

[A]

Yeah, we're getting soybeans, dude, we're going to get to soybeans.

[B]

So they just out of the blue basically didn't buy soybeans this year, which is causing, you know, the soybean farmers are in an area of America that is deep Trump and it's causing a lot of unrest there. And so that, that was an escalation on his part. And so he fires back with there was, you know, we already have export controls on a lot of countries for sending high end stuff to China. We did secondary export controls which is now like, it's just a, it's a massive layer up. So any company doing business with those companies is also on the list which went from like, I don't know, 200 companies in the list to 20,000. So it's like, it's like really trying to isolate China in a lot of ways. And so that was the moment China went, okay, we're going to unveil the nuclear. That's when they brought out rare earth minerals and they, they did it. And it, it hasn't truly sunk in yet. It's like starting to sink in in all these different countries and in America, how powerful and how ironclad they are ready for this.

[A]

Yeah, they've got our balls in a Chinese finger trap. Yeah.

[B]

And like even I, when I'm in the presentation last week I've been reading more and it's like it, it, they are fucking ready.

[C]

This a big deal is this maybe.

[A]

So if we go to war With China, we don't have the ability to make any weapons.

[B]

All of the weapons are made with these minerals. And China, like, it's not, it's just unsustainable to do. We're not going to go to war, China, God forbid. But like, it actually is impossible because all.

[A]

It's another thing in the escalation war of like, even if we go to war with China and we have our awesome fucking military, whoopsie daisy, all of our stuff is made with Chinese resources and minerals. And yeah, even if you were to.

[C]

Go to war with a Chinese ally, like if you decided to fight a war against Russia, let's say just outright ignoring all of the consequences that come with that, then China has such ability to impact your success in that war, no matter, no matter who you are fighting.

[B]

It's happening now with, you know, Ukraine, Russia, again, drones are such a big part of it. China leads in drone technology and they could produce so much more.

[C]

Is this a little bit. Is this the first time that. Yeah, you're saying that this is the first time that the US is really getting a taste of its own medicine on this front, at least since World War II. Right, because in the wake of World War II, you've sort of intentionally structured a global economic system around your country being the dominant economic player, consumer base, military, having control of all the levers that let you go into these negotiations and arguments with other countries and essentially bully them out of any situation that you really want to put your foot down on. And now this is the first time that the US Is encountering a situation since then where another country has the upper hand.

[B]

It is, it is the first time in our lifetimes and beyond 50 plus years that this has happened. And it really is a shifting of everything that the world order has been built on and understood. Again, the countries that don't have that, which are not China, have in the end, you know, we've talked a lot about the insanity of Trump's tactics and. But many of them have in some ways caved. Like, like countries that have U.S. military bases in them, like Japan, pretty much all of them have in the end, like the new PM of Japan, Takechi is like, let's go Trump. All it like. And the trade deals are broadly, at least even, or maybe in the US Favor. He's getting. I don't think the tariffs are a good idea in general, but he's getting the ones he wants. But China is just flat out ready for it in a way that I don't think he's Prepared for. I don't think his strategy works well against. Because they've done too much long term prep for this.

[A]

It seems like the entire world didn't realize oh, whoopsie daisy. We've let a critical component go entirely to China.

[B]

Yeah, I mean the chaos in Europe.

[A]

As much as I would rather none of this is happening from like a very kind of neutral third party. It's fucking brilliant. Like oh my God theory of it. It's crazy, right? China has successfully established itself as a world power that, that has our balls. And it's like, it's kind of incredible.

[C]

You know when you get outplayed in a game you're playing and the play is. It's just such a savant move and, and you're kind of like, damn. They. This is kind of sick.

[A]

Yeah. And this is what.

[C]

It's not fun to be on the other end of this thing. But it's, it's interesting.

[A]

There's a part of me that's glad because you can just tell the arrogance with, with our, with which our country has been led in our lifetimes. And for the people in power to realize, hey, you don't just get to coast off the entire world. You can't just make the rest of the world pay for our mistakes. There are other actual competitors. Like I, while I certainly do not want any kind of war of any kind, like there's a part of me that's going, okay, maybe we'll get our shit together a little bit as a country because we realize we can't coast forever.

[C]

I mean that's, that's the constant theme that we've brought up time again and again. Right. It's some sort of crisis where this finally is such a prominent issue because you're facing the consequences of it that people take steps to remedy it. Finally build out the infrastructure that you need or the supply chain that you need to combat this leverage. But it'll take presumably decades in return.

[B]

There's that book Breakneck. I mean, you know, it really is about how we have consistently offshore all manufacturing capability to China, including the ability to manufacture and refine rare earths. And this is the wake up call if anything is because yeah, I think.

[C]

Break it Breakneck does a really good job of breaking down what they, what the author just calls process knowledge. The idea that as we've lost manufacturing over the years or as we've lost certain industries not just to China, but, but to different countries all over the world. Right. Wherever that industry may have shifted, we not only lose the Jobs that came with that factory or maybe this single industry. You lose all of the components and factories and industries and the way they interact and teach people different skill sets. You lose this web of knowledge that allows you to quickly build new things or quickly add on new industries in reaction to things like this. But we're so far behind now that when you try to build something like a supply chain for refining rare earth minerals, you aren't able to because you don't even have the industries that exist, the in between sort of industries that give you the people or the knowledge necessary to build up that new supply chain 100%.

[B]

I also want to throw some shade. You know, we're talking about how the mistakes and arrogance of America has led to some problems here. But Europe, I mean, if you're looking at Europe recently, they are also finding themselves possibly even a worse spot. They're caught between two titans in this situation. A trade war with America and then also China putting a restriction on all this stuff. And what happened recently, there's like a really illustrative example that I think went under the radar. There was a company called nextperia. I believe it's a Dutch company. I want to make sure I got it. So Naxperia is a Dutch company that was not doing well. They make chips for like low end chips, chips that go in cars, chips that go in old phones, chips, just, just computer chips for mass production. Okay. And they're important. Like a lot of things built in Europe use these chips all over the world. Nixperia was a Dutch company. They weren't doing that well. A Chinese company bought them years ago, turned them around, moved some of the factories to China, built it up. They still designed them in, they still designed them in the Netherlands, but mostly built in China recently. The Dutch government, possibly under pressure from the United States, of course, but also based on leaks like their own personal angst and feeling about this type of way, the way it's going, seized control of this company, you know, just by. By government authority, they seized it. They replaced the CEO. They wanted to make sure that like it was a Dutch company and had Dutch control, they were going to let the profits still go to China, but they wanted to have control of the company. Now this is a. That's a pretty big escalation. And they didn't. I mean, it's the arrogance. It's like the thought that things are the way they used to be, that you could just do this and there wouldn't be consequences.

[A]

Yeah. Another country owns a company.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

In Your country and has worked to develop it for years and years and that you can come in and go, it's ours now. Let's just. China, yeah, that's ours now. We want it.

[C]

We're. We're Europe.

[B]

And like you and like that, that level of understanding of the way the world is tiered is just different right now. It's just. And they're waking up to it. So they do this. They take it over. China immediately goes to the factory in China and goes, you no longer work for them. Like, don't. And they throw Europe and the, and the Netherlands on an export control for those chips. Like 58% of the cars in Europe use next period chips. So they're all freaking out right now. Plus all of the stuff they built uses rare earth minerals that are like, China has complete, in this situation, escalation, dominance. They have no, they don't lose anything. They keep the factory. They just literally told the people at the factory, you have a new boss now it's someone in China. Don't respond to headquarters. And I don't know what they thought would happen in the Netherlands. Like, it's like, it's an idea from I think, old system, old ways of thinking. And, and again, I'm not like, I.

[C]

Mean, if you think about the timeline that this sort of world order has existed on, right. You're getting to a stage where everybody working in these places has just existed within that framework for their entire life. You don't have a frame of reference for making these decisions without having all that power behind you.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And now somebody has changed the dynamic and you're like, oh, I've never also.

[A]

Had to think about like, I don't know, Wall street and financials, because I'm sure the person was like, well, the headquarters are here, right? We, if we take the headquarters, we own the cup. And with a total disconnect from like, oh, actually if you don't make anything that's fucking useless now is the brand.

[B]

They have a brand and designer job.

[C]

I mean, this is also what the book talks about, right? Is like she, she has, has made a very concentrated effort of shifting China's innovation and money away from software and tech and really emphasizing hardware and physical, like physical objects controlling that rather than going down some software LED path instead. And for reasons like this, because what.

[B]

It shows is like, look, the software is important and, and good, but if you could only do one and you want to figure out the other, doing the hardware and figure out the software is just, it's. They've proven they can do it. Like China has eventually gotten their own Windows os. They've gotten their own version of Microsoft Word. They've gotten, they've gotten your Harmony os maybe like they can figure that out.

[A]

And I think it's even, even more than that. You just literally can't run software without hardware.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. It's just one of more important.

[C]

So wait, so can you tell me how the soybeans are tied?

[A]

That was a long tangent. That was fantastic. And sets the context. So that's why in three days Trump and Xi are meeting and that's why everything we just said makes this a big fucking deal. Because unlike previous trade wars, quote unquote, China has real teeth and is showing it and the world is going holy shit, wait a minute, what the fuck. Us can't just come in and stomp all over them like normal. So we've talked about the escalation. This is going to be happening in South Korea in a couple days leading up to this. So very recently. And here's actually Pull it up. Okay, didn't pull up the thing. So Bloomberg article talked about how in the last couple days Trump has announced trade agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. They are super one sided for the US they we're going to keep tariffs on these countries again, new tariffs that were imposed this year by Trump and those countries are removing the tariffs that they have on American goods and they're agreeing to pay for buy billions of dollars of stuff from America and that's it. So it's just a pure one sided multiple. People are just like, this doesn't seem to have any clear benefits to these Southeast Asian countries. So going into this big negotiation with Xi to try to deescalate things, he basically said we just locked things in with these countries and the US is stronger than ever. Look at what we just did. So that's one piece. And then going so that, that's like the last two.

[B]

This is one piece.

[A]

Yeah, that's the last two, three days. And so going into this meeting, in theory they'll talk it out and they will both de escalate all this shit because 100% tariff on China is insane for the US and if they, if China actually stops exporting rare earth minerals, the whole world goes crazy.

[C]

Doug refreshing the New York Times to see if he's going to have to pay for his mugs.

[A]

Yeah, seriously. So other things that are notable, I.

[B]

Want to be clear, if they actually cut off rare earth minerals, right. It would be World War 3.

[A]

I'm not absolute panic.

[B]

It would cause economic fault lines collapse, stock market collapse. It would. Like right now what they're doing is export controls where you have to apply for it.

[A]

They're just proving we can do.

[B]

Yeah, they're just, they're grabbing your balls but not squeezing them.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So they, they like g as just big. And you realize, holy, those are muscled hands. Those are big.

[B]

You can feel the power, right?

[A]

The heat, the heat is coming.

[C]

Oh, my God.

[A]

From an inch away. Like, it's like.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And you had no idea. You didn't realize he was building up this much muscle the last couple.

[B]

Imagine he's in a fursuit for Aiden. He's like wearing.

[A]

Oh.

[C]

And he's like. And he's like. And he's whispering in my ear. He's like growling.

[A]

So a couple, a couple of things Trump is going to try to do. First off, he's going to try to get this rare earth thing de escalated because that's disastrous. But again, at the same time, he's trying to set up trade negotiations with other countries to start recreating these industries. Does that work in the next 20 years? No, like we just said. But it's something. There's also tariffs on Chinese cars. So for the past what, four years now we America has had a 100% tariff on Chinese cars. China really doesn't want that. We still are the most lucrative car consumer base in the world. China would love to get into that industry. So it's a potential thing that we can give up a little bit that Trump could say will reduce those tariffs if you buy our soybeans again. So the soybeans have completely stopped. China won't buy our beans. They will not buy our beans. And they just started doing that this year like we talked about. Turns out I looked into this and this is from A very neutral third party source called the United Soybean.org.

[C]

I.

[A]

Was like, how many people really grow soybeans? Come on. There's 500,000 individuals who are involved with soybeans, including 223,000 full time people. So. And then there's a lot of economic impact.

[B]

Why our country's so damn soy.

[A]

Yeah. The problem is we actually, we're not because we don't buy it. According to China, we actually are not very.

[C]

Soy was being soy based all along. Oh boy, me and my one piece hat. Welcome to my analysis.

[A]

So the soybean farmers desperately want this to end because again, China has been buying our soybeans up until this year when Xi was Suddenly like, nope, no more beans. And so they're freaking out. That's something to leverage. There's also hostages that Trump is trying to get released. Most notably is Jimmy Lai, who is a Hong Kong businessman who pushed for democracy. This very famous sort of, you know, he created a newspaper in Hong Kong. Incredibly successful. It was the most successful pro democracy newspaper. He's a billionaire, tons of success across Hong Kong and has been very critical of China. He was imprisoned by the Chinese government in 2020. He's been in prison since. The allegations are clearly bullshit and it's just because he is a political dissident and he's in solitary confinement right now. He's like a Hong Kong hero and he's just in solitary confinement in China. So there's real pressure. Trump has himself said several times that lies freedom is in quotes on my list for this meeting. And told Secretary Scott Besant to make his freedom part of the trade negotiations. There's all these weird things going on. It's. And in theory, we come out of this and everybody says, yeah, we're good, we're good now. And, you know, it'll cool off for a month or whatever. But. But in three, four, five days, we're gonna, we're gonna see what is actually happening with this. Because if it escalates, that, that's really scary. But, you know, knock on wood. Nobody actually wants this. Nobody actually wants this.

[B]

Nobody actually wants. Neither side want. It would be bad for China, too.

[A]

It's not right. No one wants us. It's just. But, but it's everybody. There's tension different.

[B]

And it is. It's hard because it's hard to trust Trump's negotiating style. When you finally run into something that you can't. The usual tactic doesn't have you always on top.

[A]

Right. That he, he just four times went and bullied four countries.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Right before this.

[B]

And it's worked great those times.

[A]

Substantial country. I mean, these are, these are big. Vietnam is a huge economy now. We do a ton of work business with them and ton of trade and they just fucking caved.

[B]

So, yeah, it is going to be interesting to see. I do think my worry is not. I mean, my worry is World War Three, obviously. My worries, like isolation. My worry in the short term is that he will have a deal that he can sell, which is that he's going to get them to buy soybeans, which they just stopped in order to have this leverage was negotiation. They could, they can turn them on anytime. They can buy it again. We're Going to get soybeans and maybe a prisoner released. And that's the bone we get thrown as part of this trade deal.

[A]

Right.

[B]

But no fundamental change in our dependency on China. Probably a real chance that we're giving up our defense of Taiwan in some way, like reducing our.

[A]

Yeah, that'd be another lever that we could play.

[B]

So, I don't know. I mean, it feels like we're going in, as you might have said about Zelinsky, with not enough cards. Like it's not. That's what it feels like.

[A]

But yeah.

[B]

And I do want to say America still has a lot going for the biggest consumer economy in the world. And also the power of the US Dollar is still very important. China still holds a lot of dollars. It's not, but they have. They've done a lot to reduce their dependency. And this is the first big negotiation where it's different.

[A]

Yeah. So Dan Wang, who wrote the book Breakneck, which is, again, phenomenal, he talked about this free press today and said even if there is a truce, and then in quotes, this, this history suggests no truce is likely to be enduring. Both Trump and G have shown they are not very good at keeping their word, quick as they are to walk away or renegotiate if they feel like a deal no longer suits them. And so that's my kind of sense is this is incredibly important what happens in three days. And also not because either one of them will change their mind. Like, we've seen it change 100 times this year. So. So unfortunately, you would love it if it's like, this is the day, it definitely will settle in one way or the other. And I don't know, man. Who knows what?

[B]

We shouldn't talk about this episode, but little thing for the future, the big next, I don't know, earthquake point. Friction point in this gigantic struggle is Ukraine, Russia in that, like, if it resolves one way or another, if one side wins or Russia ends up getting. Because they made progress in the past few days to a city they thought they couldn't get. If that happens, it is a big shift right now. There is a struggle on the European and American side to find continuous sources of money to give. Everybody's been trying to point the finger at someone else to give the money. Nobody wants to do it. Everyone spend money on themselves. And the money and the shipments to Ukraine have been drying up. And so while they're. They're fighting probably bravely and valiantly, and I'm fully in support of Zelensky and Ukraine on this one, it's like it. It is. Feel like they're getting grinded down and if that was to end, and aside for the Russia, China Dragon Bear alliance, I mean it's, it's a big shift in how not only NATO and America sees themselves, but how the rest of the Global south sees the order of the world, like sees how they see this rarer thing and they see how Ukraine, Russia goes and it changes the tear light. It changes how you see the world order shifts after those moments. And it's worth talking about. We're gonna follow it up on it. Luckily we're doing it in fucking one piece outfits.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Well, my 28 year old podcaster analysis, I guess I had a question. This meeting off of the back of forming four trade agreements with four Southeast Asian countries that are heavily favoring the U.S. i feel like at the same time that you're losing a battle of leverage to China, you're making massive decisions where you sort of blow your load of leverage and push those people away to another side in the future. Like you're, you're making a decision that in the long run feels like it unravels your ability to have that leverage you're using in the future.

[B]

There's a perfect example of that, which is Canada, which is right. Canada should be the closest US Ally there is, just by all geographical and cultural and historical reasons, should be our closest ally. But because we have such a strained relationship with Canada, because this trade war and because they ran an ad of Ronald Reagan being anti tariffs during the Dodgers Blue Jays World Series, Trump got pissed, threw another tariff on him. Because of that. Yeah, this just happened.

[C]

What?

[B]

Oh, you know what? Yeah, during the World Series, it just happened. Canada ran an ad because it's a, it's a Canadian team, the Blue Jays. Yeah, they ran an ad showing it's just Ronald Reagan speaking to camera. They just took an old clip of him saying tariffs are. They seem good at first, but in the end they lead to reprisal and reduced alliances and reduced trade.

[A]

That was taken out of context. Yeah.

[B]

And that's what Trump said. He's like, it's not real. He's like, it's fake. It's not fake. It's a real quote. Anyway, so he threw a tariff on him. And Canada is now in talks with China to get rid of the Canadian 100 EV tariff. Because they are, that's their leverage is to go to China. And so like, these things, I think, have consequences. Even if you can get an extraction in the short term, you are pushing people into a system that is proving itself to be stronger. I mean, it's. To me, it's a little spooky because I love my country and I love, you know, I'm. I the.

[A]

You love dominating Canada. We should be able to dominate them.

[B]

You know, a web of connected alliances is a good thing to. It makes your country feel safer. It makes you feel more prosperous, makes you feel like you can travel freer. The idea that, you know, we're headed into a more multipolar world order is multipolar will be okay. Chinese led one is even spookier. Like it's a. It's a thing worth thinking about.

[A]

So.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. I think that's the Canadian example is like, what might happen in a few years with some of these countries where we've pushed them in such extractive terms.

[C]

Yeah, I'm going to start switching sides, huh? If you're listening. China's number one. I've been saying it a long time.

[A]

Hey, you know what? Let's talk about one of the ways China's number one. Dude, let's talk about it because there is some good news. Did you know that the share of people living at below the global poverty line of $3 has dropped a ton over the past couple decades?

[C]

Yes, sir.

[A]

I've heard this.

[C]

Yes, sir.

[A]

Now that probably maybe you've heard that and you've gone, yeah, cool. And then you start worrying about the price of eggs. That makes sense. But I just want to. We're going to talk about Poland and how Poland has actually had an incredible. I don't know what to say. Advancement, I'd say.

[C]

I'd say trajectory or like an E, A A holy miracle of economic growth. I don't.

[A]

Divine presence.

[B]

The Lord has chosen Poland.

[A]

Right. There's. Right. Some sort of commandment. I and supposedly there's a Jesus in there somewhere. Like he is hiding in Poland somewhere, but he's working at one of them.

[C]

Yeah, Jesus has come back and he's in Poland.

[B]

I never knew he'd be pol.

[C]

That one. TikTok.

[B]

It's like you're in heaven.

[A]

I just didn't know it'd be Polish. So if you pull this up, Perry. So just to set up. I, you know, I do think optimism is important. I and it's so easy for us and everybody on the Internet to just talk about how shitty everything is. But as a reminder, over the past, let's say 50 years, the amount of people living globally in extreme poverty, including in China, which has a Dramatic transformation has decreased dramatically for people who are watching on YouTube. Here's a little visual of watching countries. Dark red means extremely high percentage of people are in extreme poverty. And as the timeline moves forward, Africa starts popping up because they start measuring it. You can see that basically all of Asia just starts to drop off of this, this, this thing. And in fact, if you pull up a line chart and you go to the world here, and this is from your world and data, which is really, really excellent, you will see that the percentage of people around the world living in extreme poverty, 1990, was 43%. It is now at 10. So that's a big number. And it might not mean enough or mean very much, but what does that specifically means? It means that if you are in extreme poverty, you have $3 of purchasing power in your respective country. And when I heard that up until like this week researching this, I was like, well, okay, well, $3, obviously you couldn't live off $3 a day in America, but you know, $3 could get you a lot of stuff in Sudan or whatever. But that's not what it is. The metric that the World bank uses is adjusted so it's the same amount of purchasing power. So when you say someone is living in extreme poverty right now in South Sudan, it doesn't mean they have three United States dollars every day. They're living in the equivalent of having three United States dollars in America. It is the same living condition. So that means most likely you're getting one, two meals a day, maybe housing you probably are not able to afford. You're probably sharing something that is very temporary. No electricity, no piped water, there's dirt on the floors, no real sanitation, no ability to access health care of any kind. There's no real education opportunities, except maybe if something is available in your region.

[C]

Could I give some context to this too? This is from this recent call I had with somebody who's been living in Sudan for 20 years. I think he helped helped shape my understanding of how people really interact with this poverty day to day. Most people in areas operate like self sustaining operations to just eat, they have a garden or do local farming with their community. And that is the way they get food. They don't go to a market or travel or go to go somewhere else to purchase their food from them. They have to make it for themselves or just for their local community.

[B]

I don't understand that your skin gets, it glows.

[C]

And I think it, it really clicked for me when you see a lot of articles about famine hitting areas that Are war torn. Right. Why? It's not just because the, you know, the supply chain that fills, like the market or grocery store where people go and buy things in their city is compromised for a lot of people. It's literally because they had to leave their home and they aren't able to garden and grow their food anymore. Right.

[A]

You have no backup, you have no savings. If there's a medical emergency war, your home is ruined. You have nothing. Yeah, nothing.

[C]

I think it's. It's really like, I think you come into these with, like, our ideas of the way we live. Like, just, if I need food, I go to the store or market or equivalent and I go buy it somewhere. But there's, you know, a lot of people don't even have access to that layer of interacting with, like, it doesn't matter if they have the money or not. The place to go get the food doesn't exist to begin with. With.

[A]

Right.

[C]

And that is, you know, that was a really important illustration to me of, oh, that's how these famines play out and develop. That's the level of poverty that people in areas of Sudan are dealing with. When you, when you read these headlines.

[A]

Yeah. And so I was shocked to understand this because I thought, could I live off of $3 a day in the United States? And the answer is, you could probably live, right? You can probably get. You could get like a meal or two from the, you know, get instant ramen and maybe sliced bread and peanut butter or something. Maybe a drink, maybe a bus ride. But you definitely, you need shelter from other people, which in most of America, it's like, not consistent. You maybe have shelter some of the time. No healthcare, no, like, nothing. Right.

[C]

Did they contextualize or do. You know, one question I've always had is why? That happens to be the threshold, especially given that it's purchasing power. Like, why isn't it 4 or 10? Because none of those amounts would be a lot either. Right.

[A]

I was reading about this today. So they adjust it over time to basically reflect how purchasing has changed. So it was $1 for a long time, which again, is not really a US Dollar. It's the purchasing power in America. And then it became $1.90 something like a decade ago, and then four years ago, it was update upgraded to $3. So I was reading through the methodology. I don't remember the specifics right now, but essentially they do update it. So as of the last couple years, it's $3 a day is the equivalent. And so now that we've set up the fact that living in extreme poverty is incredibly brutal and sad. And it's something we desperately would not hope for anybody on earth. It is truly astounding to look at how many people have been pulled out of that. If you look at China in 1981, that is 44 years ago, 97% of China was in that state. That is over a billion people, 8 billion people. And now 0. 20, 22 now I'm sure, yeah, there might be some, you know, it's estimated in America it's like, you know, less than 1 percentage. But obviously, you know, people homeless, living on the street, they, they fall into this category. Right. So presumably that's true in China as well. But it is pretty irrefutable that these, that this type of trajectory has happened. If you look at India, India, 60% were living in extreme poverty 1977. Right now it is 5. And India is notable for being one of the most impoverished and sort of, you know, horrific slums, horrific living conditions, just unbelievable poverty for people who've traveled there decades ago. Like my mom lived there for a while.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

These are also the two key countries in lowering the global stat because their populations are so large and they've generally made so much progress over the last few decades that they, they have helped lower the global average.

[A]

You're talking about 2 billion people. And just the scale of that is so unbelievably mind boggling. And this has happened essentially in our lifetimes that it's just as much as there are problems in the world. Like man, that's encouraging. Like it's so good to hear that humanity has done this Vietnam, similar thing. Thirty years ago, 57% of people were living in extreme poverty. Now it is 1.6%. I have Vietnamese friends who've talked about the change. Rwanda, Africa is struggling. Africa has not made that big of a difference. But there are a couple outliers. Rwanda, 25 years ago, 82% of people are living in extreme poverty. It is now 38%. I also was reading articles about how in the last like 15 years, something like that, 6% of people had electricity in Rwanda. Now 75% have electricity. So Rwanda, you know, asterisks there, it's kind of a dictatorship. But you know, there are these.

[B]

Well, I mean that's what I want to say is like, you know, the human condition is inherently some sort of struggle. As you, we've all, even in America, we went from like people on the, the frontier dying to dysentery to. Yeah, you know, you move up The. The value chain of problems in Rwanda, once you get past we're starving in electricity, you move into. We want political enfranchisement. We want, you know that. So I think, yeah, some of the struggles we're seeing in the world are because we've gotten past the phase where these countries are in desperate poverty right now. They are in like, okay, we have strong men, we have problems elsewhere. Yeah.

[A]

So in a way, progress. In a way. Yes, yes. And you look here. These are the four. These are the four countries that are four of the countries we talked about earlier today that are having protests. All of them, I mean, Indonesia and nepal were like 90% poverty. And these have all plummeted down to like, like 5%. And so while, yes, it's sad to hear about protests happening in these countries where political corruptions that led to the protests.

[C]

I was going to say. Yeah. I don't even know if it's sad.

[B]

Right.

[C]

Because it's also the symbol of.

[A]

There's people being lifted up out of poverty and wanting a better life. And like, these protests are happening online from Gen Z because so much of the society was able to pull themselves up. And so I am appreciative of humanity for the unbelievable scale at which we've been able to improve people's lives and obviously lots more to do. But, man, there's so much good happening as well. And leading into that is Poland, which Poland was not poor. Not like extreme poverty poor, but a poor country until pretty recently. And they've had this. I mean, I. My understanding is St. Gabriel literally descended into Parliament.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And told them to build a certain type of infrastructure inside Krakow.

[C]

Yeah, they. It's all. It's all Christ. It's all religious, really. That's all I cracked. Jesus saved them. I. I think Poland has been in a tough situation historically, where they geographically exist in a spot that is difficult to defend between world powers.

[A]

Not just world powers. Stalin and Hitler in history has also.

[C]

Been in a position where they're a power in their region as well. Like further back history. But in the wake of World War II being invaded, having a lot of their infrastructure damage, a lot of their wealth and like gold reserves taken. They were.

[A]

And many people killed.

[C]

Many, many. Oh, my God, dude. The number of people, it was like 20%. I think it was like 20% of the population of Poland died in World War II. Like one in five people.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

It's horrific. The after. After World War II ends, they fall under Soviet control. They're not literally a part of the Soviet Union, which I didn't really know, but they are under the umbrella right there. Yeah. And they're turned into, you know, a Soviet manufacturing state. And a lot of nationalized industry exists. And although agriculture is never nationalized, which is something I didn't know, they do experience a lot of economic stagnation throughout this period. Like over, over the long term of that century, Right?

[A]

Most of the Soviet Union did, right?

[C]

Yeah, yeah.

[A]

Economic stagnation. Yeah, yeah.

[C]

They're in a very similar spot to a lot of these like Eastern European countries that end up slightly splitting off. Like the fall of the Soviet Union happens and then we arrive to 2004 and Poland becomes a part of the European Union. And this isn't the only thing that moves them forward, but in their time being in the EU, they've been the number one beneficiary of EU directed funds to their country. They've received about 245 billion euros through the end of 2023 from when they joined and they transitioned out of kind of Soviet era economics in a bit of a different, slower way than a lot of these other Eastern bloc countries did. And they also had the benefit of, since a large portion of their economic output was this agricultural sector that was never nationalized to begin with, at least under Soviet rules, they had sort of an economic buffer from that industry that allowed them to slowly transition the remainder of their industry out of just this nationalized system that they had before. And then once they start receiving this massive amount of money from the European Union, they use it to develop infrastructure. Things like developing better roads, developing better train networks, more manufacturing infrastructure programs, educational programs for people, better healthcare infrastructure. All of these things are slowly built up over time. And then also something they did was invest heavily in technological education and digital infrastructure. So we're building and providing really good Internet access to businesses and people all over the country.

[B]

Game dev scene in my understanding, because of, of education there Internet opportunities cost like a lot of, a lot of big games come out of Poland.

[C]

Yeah, yeah. And alongside of this, this tech sector that they're building, like they're educating kids at a really young age to become like technologically savvy. A lot of like software engineers devs, a lot of people that work in it. And then on top of that, all the huge advancements in their manufacturing industry where they're building things like automobiles, machinery, electronic parts, and they position themselves because of their place in the EU as this source for either higher end services or higher end manufacturing and even low end manufacturing too, that can be supplied to the rest of the EU because they have relatively low labor costs. Like they are in a position where average salary there has increased a ton over the last 20 years. Right. I think it's, I was looking at like since 2004, the average monthly wage has like 7x'd or 8x'd. It's something, something crazy. And. But that's still a lot cheaper than hiring somebody from Germany or hiring somebody from France. So they have this economic advantage of providing services and goods to the rest of the European Union. So they're all because of that, they have a bunch of growth. You have a bunch of people who are educated in these unique fields and also effectively combating the brain drain that they had experienced for a long time at the beginning of joining the eu. A lot of educated young people in Poland because the prospects weren't as good as were leaving to other European countries for better opportunities. But as Poland has managed to build up so much industry within its own place, even though salaries are still lower, the cost of living is lower and they've become attractive enough of a business sector for a lot of Polish people who left to come back. And a lot of people who are becoming educated are growing up in Poland to just stay and build their careers there. So they're on a really, really strong trajectory.

[B]

I mean, I first heard about this British newspapers were reporting. You know, it's kind of a shocker again, like the old order versus new order. Right. People have always had a certain tier list of the economic power in Europe and very recently the Poland per capita income didn't quite reach it. But it's knocking on the door of the uk. It's like, like, yeah, and it's. And the line goes from like low flat to vertical to catch up to where. So it's like, it's like a shifting of like, oh, Poland is, you know, the lifestyle Poland will be thought of to be way lower than that of like the, the developed ones in Europe. And now it's, it's a lot, lot closer.

[C]

Yeah, it's catching up. It's closing this gap that is so much faster.

[B]

So it's like the, the trend line is, is what's causing people to get.

[A]

You know, they also have a culture of working so hard.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

So hard. And I guess that's a common theme for countries that have like lifted themselves up. For example, China, like and Japan and South Korea, like brutal, unhealthy levels of work. That's my experience working with Polish people when I was in esports. Like they, I. The first esports show, I went to Poland, I went to Katowice and I was in their office and they were like, yeah, we're doing a World of Tanks show today. And I was like, what are you talking about? We have the Hearthstone show tomorrow that we've been building for months. Like, no, no, it's fine. We're gonna do it today and then we'll do rehearsal tonight. I'm like, it's. What are you talking about? I was like, oh, no, we just won't sleep. And so they didn't. And so they stayed up for 24 hours. They did a eight hour show for World of Tanks and then spent eight hours rehearsing. And then we did a 12 hour show and then they went to bed and it was. And this was normal. It was just like, obviously not every day, but like this was a not uncommon on a weekly basis. It was like, holy shit. I've heard that from other folks as well. That is a common thing of. Part of this culturally is Polish people going, we are willing to work unbelievably hard. And then with all due respect, compare that to the French. French love to take some time off.

[C]

I love French. Love hitting my French coworker up on email. And then it's like they're gone. I'm gone for the next three weeks.

[A]

Oh, you hit me up on Friday. Friday's not a work day here. Ooh, a bit much. Mondays we leave it 2pm Sorry.

[C]

Yeah, those things are good too, though.

[B]

Well, what's the French birth rate versus Poland is what I want to know because they're probably. France is pretty high, right?

[C]

Yeah. Francis is like.

[B]

France is. Is higher than Poland.

[C]

Higher than. Way higher than Poland. Way higher than Poland.

[A]

Poland is only 1.16. Holy. That's bad.

[B]

Yes. That's what South Korea that are like killing themselves to move the economic ladder. Are they hitting a different.

[A]

Yeah, then they aren't porking, man.

[B]

They aren't porking. It's like, it's tough.

[C]

There's another big economic mover here and it's the amount of military investment and spending that Poland is making too. So they. Compared to a lot of Europe. Right. That's lagging behind making these commitments to start spending like 2 to 3% of their GDP on military defense spending in the next 10 years or whatever. Yeah, I forget what the term is at 5.

[B]

But they're. They're not doing it.

[C]

And Poland is already spending about 5% of its GDP. I think for way more understandable historic reasons, they. They have They've been burned. Yeah, they burned a few times. So this is. But this is also a vehicle for economic growth in the country because so many people are either employed through this sector or tied in through the, you know, technological innovations that have to happen because of that or the manufacturing that has to happen because of that. And one question I did have is so much of the economic success that they have found themselves in. From my reading, and I'd love if anybody lives in Poland or can weigh in on this and share their experience of living there. Because I'd really, really like to hear. But what I've gathered is it depends so largely on their cheap labor. Like they are able to provide things at a cost that is just very, very effective. And if you continue to raise the standard of living and continue to raise wages over time, which I'm not saying that shouldn't happen.

[B]

True.

[C]

But eventually if you are to catch up, because there's this constant conversation around Poland that I've seen of. Are they going to surpass the Frances and the Germanies in the European Union? But if so much of your competitive advantage comes from just beating those people on price, basically, how will can you actually outgrow.

[B]

I would love to hear what they say. But like this is exactly the argument people made about China a few decades ago, which is like they do cheap labor and that how are they gonna ever get out of that?

[C]

So I have the built in counter argument, which is that at least in the engine, like in the tech sector, let's say in Poland, they've really angled themselves towards building out companies that are new or innovative in some way that differentiates them from the tech sectors that have managed to build up in places like France or Germany. So that they have some sort of like expertise or advantage in these spaces that even after the prices. Yeah, yeah. I'm countering my own point that even after they catch up to these, because they have the skill set that these countries or cities in those countries haven't developed in their own tech sector, they still have something of value.

[B]

That's the China model. Right. Which you have cheap labor so everybody moves their manufacturing or whatever to you, then you get really good at it. And then as your standard living improves, you still make things that no one else can make.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And you have money off that, you become a. Become wealthier.

[C]

It's like me paying the tariff because nobody else can make that goddamn chess boxing hoodie. What am I supposed to do?

[A]

Oh, that was from Poland.

[C]

Made it in a Polish factory. Made by God. Made By God, God bless him.

[A]

I talked to Hope he doesn't mind me saying. My Polish editor who was here last week and asked him, I was like, the last 10 years for Poland have been incredible. You know, it's like it's going up. Do you actually notice that? Or is that one of that. Is it one of those situations where all the time you hear, you know, on the news here in America, like, the economy is doing great, right.

[C]

Ireland, GDP per capita graph explode, but nobody there.

[A]

Right, right. Are you like, is it just going to the richest people? Like, what's going on? He was like, no, it's. You really can tell. Just in the last 10 years, like, growing up, you'd go to friends houses, all the buildings were like crumbling, stairs are broken, most appliances don't work. Cars on the road are from the 60s. And everything has just been improving and getting nicer and everybody's noticing it and appreciating it. Just again, it's like, there is this happening in the world that people's lives are getting better. We want to hear, it's not a qual fire. There's good things happening. And I'm like, ah, it's awesome. Yeah.

[C]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, this was, this was nice to. I. I want to, like. Because you had shared a bit of that anecdote last week. Again, if you worked in Poland, studied in Poland, you're from Poland, live there. I really would like to hear more anecdotes from your experience and how they line up or differ from this, because it's a country that I've, you know, I got to travel around so much, especially for Smash, and I feel like I have friends all over the world and Poland just is a place where I, I think I literally know.

[B]

No, Yeah, I really want to go.

[C]

So. Yeah. Anyway, that's. That's this week's Lemonade series for watching.

[B]

Lemonade stick real quick.

[A]

Final note. We talked about this on our Patreon in more. I just want to address last week's episode. I know there were a lot of critical comments. While I completely understand frustration with the way a guest word something, in the case of Prime, I think he worded things in a way that did not come off as very understanding to the plight of many people right now. And that was a miss, I think, frankly. And I chatted with him and I think he agrees, I think it was not well worded. There's a lot of frustration with the way he kind of ended the episode. And I would just ask to please, you don't have to. But just assume that people are not dumb. I don't know. Like, you know. Yeah, I think people are well intentioned. Like this is a person who is so. He is so smart and caring and thoughtful towards people. I think the way he phrased that was not particularly. It didn't make somebody feel heard who's really struggling right now. I think it was framed in a way that sort of dismisses. Sounds very dismissive of what a lot of people are experiencing. Something that I'm only aware of because of this show and how much we've talked to people and read the discord messages and all these things. But like somebody like that is not stupid. Is not. Is fully aware that situations are different for different people. And I would just hope there's more empathy and understanding to be frustrated with what somebody said. Obviously that is completely legit to not agree. Completely legit. But it was a little disheartening how many people seem to be like if somebody isn't fully 100% saying my narrative, that's bad. And I just like, man. And we should assume something better in each other. Man.

[C]

Yeah. I think also that conversation, if we had just talked through it more knowing what prime actually thinks about the subject at large, I think people would not have had the same reaction. And we just wanted to basically cap the episode at two hours and came up to time. But yeah, exactly that. I think if you were sitting down one on one with prime and we're talking about this with him, I think you'd understand that certainly you don't think.

[A]

Every single person who can't get a job is this. And he obviously would say, oh no, not obviously.

[B]

Not that.

[A]

I'm focusing on that example case which does exist. But there's. Anyway, so.

[C]

And then I guess as a last thing, because a lot of people came at the water stat cited specifically. It does, it does sound like the water you should stat about golf courses was incorrect.

[A]

Yes and no.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Like, so I've been looking into a bunch since then. So I hadn't been familiar with it, but there are sources of people. It's hard to calculate. And when you say that this is much. This is how much water, that can mean many different things. So by some interpretations, by some people, that's a legit number. Golf courses use a ton of water. I think that was presented in a way that was overgeneralized though without giving the specific context.

[C]

But yeah. And I think some people just, just were complaining about other issues related to water that we didn't touch on. I think with all of these topics, there's so many directions to push and pull in. And I. And I would almost film this in.

[B]

Advance and for the future. I know you guys a lot of comments on our depiction of one piece and how it wasn't accurate in any way and that Aiden did a really bad job.

[C]

I did do a pretty bad job. I did do a pretty bad job.

[B]

And I just want to apologize for that and say we will do better. And I'm really working on telling Aiden to do more reading around here.

[C]

If you want to see me do more reading on one piece or you want to see our longer thoughts on the prime episode in general, you can subscribe to our Patreon. You can check it [e-mail] Lemonade Sam, where we release a bunch of extra content per month. We do extra episodes of the show, other bonus shows for higher tiers. And we had a really long, good conversation about the feedback to the episode, why it happens and how we felt about it and listening to people in good faith and all these sorts of things. So thank you.

[A]

I don't want to be too negative. There were tons of comments of people say, hey, Prime, I respectfully disagree with you and here's why. Here's been my experience, and those comments were great and I appreciate them a ton. So I just want to make that clear. Lots of really good discussion. Our community is awesome. Awesome. Yeah, it really is. So I don't want to end on that negative note. No, you were saying.

[C]

Thanks so much, everybody.

[A]

See y' all next. Wait, no, I won't see you next week.

[C]

Doug won't be here next week because he's leaving on vacation. Funny. He could learn a thing from the Polish.

[B]

From the Polish.

[A]

I'm out. Vacation time later, everybody. Bye.

[B]

Bye.