Lemonade Stand | Ep. 036: "The Longest Shutdown Ever"

Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Aiden & Braden (Doug is traveling)
Guest: Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify
Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network

Episode Overview

In a momentous episode, Aiden and Braden (with DougDoug absent this week for research in Japan) dig deep into the historic U.S. government shutdown, laying out its causes, real-time impacts, and political deadlock. They also cover the high-stakes New York City mayoral race, the truce in the U.S.-China trade war, and the economic squeeze touching millions of Americans. In a new format experiment, the back half features an in-depth interview with Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify, discussing entrepreneurial trends, economic optimism (and realism), and Shopify’s latest results as it becomes Canada’s largest company. The hosts round out the episode with personal reflections on entrepreneurship, business optimism, and the complex realities facing individuals in 2025.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown: Causes and Impacts

(00:11 – 22:30)

Context & Stalemate

• The U.S. is on Day 35 of the longest government shutdown in history, surpassing the previous record of 34 days (00:54).
  • The shutdown stems from a budget impasse. Democrats refuse to pass a budget resolution without concessions:
    1. Extension of expiring ACA (Obamacare) subsidies.
    2. Reversal of earlier Medicaid cuts.
    3. Preventing future executive unilateral funding cuts against Congress’s appropriations (03:03).
• President Trump and Republicans are holding fast, anticipating Democrats will cave or threatening to end the filibuster (08:19).

Real-World Effects

• Critical staff (e.g., air traffic controllers) are calling in sick, using PTO, or not showing up. Flights now spaced further apart for safety; delays and partial groundings at major airports like LAX (06:30).
  • Generational rift: older workers are taking overtime, younger ones are using sick days (06:30).
• SNAP (food stamp) benefits: Emergency funds cover only a partial month, leading to delays and reduced payments for 41M people (12:08).
  • Trump refuses to fill the gap with other emergency funding despite a judge’s order: “I’m not going to provide this extra money. Which leaves the program half funded for the month and also delayed in the funding.” (14:01)
  • Knock-on effects extend to grocery stores, food banks, small businesses, and payroll cuts (17:52).

Political Dynamics

• Little progress in negotiations; both sides expect the other to crumple (08:11).
• The filibuster’s future as a political tool is under fire, with both parties casting aside past principle for short-term gains (09:36, 10:10).

Notable Quote

“This is all vibes, right?...This is the first one where I have a feeling of, oh, we’re not even trying to figure this out.”
— Aiden (07:57)

2. The SNAP Crisis

(11:32 – 22:30)

• 41 million Americans (12% of the population) rely on SNAP, which is now only partially funded due to the shutdown.
• Federal courts order Trump to use emergency funds to cover the shortfall; the administration refuses, citing “unacceptable risk” (15:52).
• Local business and food banks report acute distress:
  • Less SNAP spending means reduced grocery sales, hours, and employment (17:52).
  • Food banks overwhelmed: "They don’t have enough resources.” (20:59)
  • Recipients experience heartbreaking hardship and political disillusionment: “All he is doing is catering to rich people and … forgetting about us, forgetting about the people who voted for him.” (21:09)

Notable Quote

“...he was supposed to be this guy who represented and fought for people struggling in these situations ... all he is doing is catering to rich people ... forgetting about the people who voted for him.”
— West Virginia SNAP recipient, paraphrased by Aiden (21:09)

3. U.S.-China Trade Truce

(24:17 – 27:44)

• Trump’s recent Asia visit yields a one-year truce in the trade war: high tariffs rolled back from 100% to between 30–47%, semiconductor and rare earth tensions temporarily cooled (24:30).
• Both sides get breathing room: “America and its allies race to build out rare earth pipelines; China pushes on semiconductors.”
• Reception is mixed; some call it a massive win, others see it as kicking the can:

  “On a scale of dog walk to 12 out of 10 … feels more like a cautious 4 in my mind … nothing solved. And a year is not a long time in the scales we’re talking about.”
  — Braden (26:52)

Memorable Moment

• Trump makes Xi Jinping genuinely laugh during the handshake session—watchers are mystified (27:44).

4. New York City Mayoral Election: The “Zoron” Surge

(28:13 – 38:47)

• As of recording, Zoran Momdani leads the mayoral race, likely defeating Andrew Cuomo despite the latter’s “kiss of death” Trump endorsement (31:01).
• Momdani’s policies: free buses, opening five new grocery stores, rent freezes for select apartments, and universal childcare (29:08).
• The campaign’s vigor is unprecedented—90,000 canvassers—and signals a generational search for agency and hope:

  “The bar’s so low ... he’s young and not corrupt. Like, that’s the refreshing part.”
  — Braden (33:11)

• Hosts view Zoron’s likely win as a harbinger of a youth-driven democratic “fuck it moment” and signs of an anti-establishment movement within the Democratic Party (34:04).

Notable Quote

“The biggest risk is doing nothing, I think, in their mind. That is why he’s getting such support.”
— Braden (35:36)

5. Reflections on Agency, Institutional Rot, and Youth in Politics

(38:47 – 41:17)

• Hosts discuss whether real change is possible or if institutional inertia will overwhelm new leaders:

  “Even if he can’t make massive change, I see it as ... a bigger shift in a direction of people, of generally younger people, just claiming more power, like finding some way to claw into this gate-kept system of boomers.”
  — Braden (38:47)

6. California Prop 50: Gerrymandering & National Strategy

(40:09 – 41:17)

• California’s Prop 50 aims to add Democratic seats to the House in response to Republican-led redistricting in Texas and elsewhere—a race to the bottom, but “the reality that we’re fighting.” (41:07)

7. Air Traffic Controllers’ Reality During the Shutdown

(43:28 – 44:57; 00:44:06 for direct quote)

• Listener shares firsthand on working without pay during the shutdown, logging hours for future back pay, and senior staff lending money to newer hires:

  “I got my first zero check a few weeks ago ... log every hour ... whatever back pay you do will almost certainly not actually be correct … Turns out the people who run the books are also furloughed.”
  — Listener submission (44:06)

Special Feature: Interview with Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify

(46:30 – 87:19)

A. Shopify’s Earnings and Entrepreneurial Trends

(46:30 – 55:08)

• Shopify just reported 9th straight quarter of 30%+ growth. It is now Canada’s largest company by market cap (47:02).
  • “Every 26 seconds a brand new entrepreneur gets their first sale on Shopify” (47:27).
  • Finkelstein sees a “golden age of entrepreneurship”—velocity of business growth is faster than ever.

Notable Quotes

“When you get that first sale from someone who’s not your mom ... that first sponsorship, that first ... It was a life changing thing.”
— Harley Finkelstein (47:27)

B. Consumer Health & the ‘K-Shaped’ Economy

(55:08 – 58:48)

• Consumer demand remains robust on Shopify ("consumers keep buying, keep returning, generally demand has been really resilient"—52:19), though Finkelstein notes people are “more selective,” buying from brands they trust (53:02).
• Hosts probe for broader economic risks:
  • “It sounds a bit like what we're hearing about a K-shaped economy ... some people are doing really well ... some are struggling.” — Braden (58:11)

C. Shopify Capital, Loan Losses, and Small Business Lending

(58:48 – 60:42)

• Shopify extends cash advances to merchants, filling a gap as banks rarely lend to evolving small businesses.
  • "As long as they're in [guardrails], we're happy to lend ... not something that gets a lot of attention, but it's a part of our business I'm very proud of." —Finkelstein (59:16)

D. AI and the Future of Commerce

(61:11 – 68:44)

• AI democratizes entrepreneurship: Shopify’s “Sidekick” feature functions as a virtual assistant for merchants—once requiring large departments—now available for $39/month.
• Excitement is tempered by audience skepticism about AI’s benefits for average workers (62:09–62:22).
  • "People are not going to lose their job to AI. They're going to lose their job to someone who knows how to use AI." —Harley Finkelstein (65:43)

E. Economic Optimism, Canadian Business, and Entrepreneurship

(75:43 – 84:20)

• Canada’s “tall poppy syndrome” suppresses business ambition, but Finkelstein is bullish: “Success begets success.”
• Shopify’s rise inspires other Canadian startups to stay independent (77:16).
  • "If you look at the top 10 largest companies by market cap in Canada other than Shopify, the second youngest is TD Bank—1956." —Harley Finkelstein (76:57)

F. Shopify’s Ethos & Reflections on the Lemonade Stand

(86:25 – 87:00)

• Finkelstein credits the lemonade stand—figuratively and literally—as early entrepreneurship, connecting the show’s premise with the entrepreneurial spirit he promotes at Shopify.

  “One of the greatest creations of humans was the lemonade stand. ...We need to create more lemonade stands at different stages of our lives so that more people consider entrepreneurship.”
  —Harley Finkelstein (86:25)

Hosts’ Post-Interview Reflections

(87:20 – end)

• Genuine appreciation for Harley’s optimism but caution about the “everyone can be an entrepreneur” notion—many simply can’t, and structural issues remain.
  • “He’s not saying entrepreneurship is the solution for every single person’s economic strife ... for those who have the desire to pursue it, the tools are available.” —Aiden (91:55)
  • Value of Shopify’s model for Canada: showing "it can be done" is meaningful, if not a cure-all for systemic issues (92:24, 93:33).
• Final thoughts acknowledge the nuance and necessity of optimism in leadership, but affirm a healthy skepticism and the need for broader policy solutions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “This is all vibes, right? … This is the first one where I have a feeling of, oh, we're not even trying to figure this out.”
  — Aiden (07:57)

• “The bar's so low … he’s young and not corrupt. Like, that's the refreshing part.”
  — Braden (33:11)

• “I'm just going to trust you … because I think you guys are good guys. … If you're endorsing something, I'm going to take the leap of faith and say you probably actually really like the product.”
  — Harley Finkelstein (74:05)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |---------------------|--------------------| | Shutdown Analysis | 00:11 – 22:30 | | SNAP Crisis | 11:32 – 22:30 | | China Trade Deal | 24:17 – 27:44 | | NYC Mayoral Race | 28:13 – 38:47 | | Agency/Institutional Reflections | 38:47 – 41:17 | | California Prop 50 | 40:09 – 41:17 | | Shutdown: Air Traffic Controllers | 43:28 – 44:57 | | SHOPIFY INTERVIEW | 46:30 – 87:19 | | Post-interview Reflections | 87:20 – end |

Tone & Style

Conversational, inquisitive, skeptical yet optimistic. The hosts oscillate between irreverent, meme-y humor and insightful political critique, never shying from big questions. The guest interview maintains a businesslike yet accessible tone, with Harley Finkelstein’s relentless optimism balancing the hosts’ skepticism.

Takeaways

• The U.S. shutdown has moved from political spectacle to acute crisis, with impacts cascading through the working class.
• The NYC mayoral race represents a larger generational shift—disillusionment with the status quo, a hunger for agency.
• Shopify’s staggering growth embodies the promise and reality of modern entrepreneurship, while Finkelstein’s perspective highlights both the opportunities and the limitations.
• The landscape for change, whether in politics or business, is as fraught as it is full of potential—a reality not lost on the hosts or their guest.

For listeners: This rich episode is essential listening for anyone interested in the intersection of politics, policy, and the business of entrepreneurship in 2025.