Lemonade Stand Ep. 037: "We Fled the Country"

Date: November 12, 2025
Hosts: Doug (DougDoug), Atrioc, and Connor (Aiden)
Location: Recorded in Tokyo, Japan, at the Trash Taste studio
Podcast by: Lemonade Stand (Vox Media Podcast Network)

Episode Overview

This week, the Lemonade Stand team ditches the U.S. for Tokyo just as the U.S. government shutdown nears its (uncertain) ending. From a backdrop of anime figurines and Japanese street life, Doug, Atrioc, and Connor discuss the shutdown saga’s dramatic twists, the political calculus that led to its resolution, and what it all means for American politics. The second half of the episode pivots into an in-depth, highly entertaining exploration of Japanese business culture, with a fascinating profile of Masayoshi Son, SoftBank, and the staggering highs and lows of global venture investment. The hosts also touch on macroeconomic phenomena like the yen carry trade, before introducing plans for expert guests in upcoming episodes.

Main Themes

• Boots-on-the-ground comedic coverage of the U.S. government shutdown
• Political fallout from the shutdown, both in D.C. and for the podcast's ratings
• The financial empire and wild gambles of Masayoshi Son and SoftBank
• How unprecedented venture capital shapes global tech and risk-taking
• The macroeconomics of Japan: money, debt, and the yen carry trade
• Reflections on power, obsession, and why elderly billionaires can’t step away

Key Discussion Points

1. Podcast Meets Tokyo: Why Flee the U.S.?

• The team jokes about going “to the heart of the source, Japan, to get boots on the ground coverage of what exactly is going on with the US Government shutdown” [00:00].
• Semi-serious, mostly comedic motivation: Doug scheduled a vacation, leading the crew to “ruin his vacation” by filming Lemonade Stand in Japan [01:46].
• Justification for the Japan backdrop: logistics and a desire to explore Japanese business stories [03:03].

"We go to the Trash Taste studio. We need as many anime figurines behind us as possible..."
—Atrioc [00:28]

2. US Government Shutdown: Final Acts and Political Math

• Eight Democrats flipped to support a spending bill, breaking the stalemate and (maybe) ending the shutdown. Most of these senators are retiring or not up for reelection soon [04:38, 09:48].
• Democratic leadership—Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries—blamed by progressives, but the hosts suggest behind-the-scenes coordination to allow a strategic "cave while taking a stand" [10:08–11:18].
• The final deal delivers virtually no new Democratic concessions:
  • ACA subsidies not extended, only a promise to hold a vote by December
  • No reversal of Medicaid cuts
  • Retroactive pay for furloughed workers, reversal of layoffs
• The shutdown’s actual impact: airports in chaos, economic losses, political fatigue, and poll damage for Trump.

“If you’re gonna go into this battle, you have to know that’s going to happen... It doesn’t make any political sense.”
—Atrioc [08:35]

“This was the war I had inside me—what the fuck was it all for?”
—Connor [07:55]

Notable Quotes

• “Nobody can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like the Democrats.”
  —Atrioc, quoting Dan Pfeiffer [08:44]
• “We are going to cave in a way where we can say we didn’t cave.”
  —Doug [11:06]

Timestamps

• [03:44] – List of Democrats who flipped
• [04:38] – Shutdown's functional effects
• [07:29] – Personal reflections on the shutdown's pointlessness
• [10:08–11:18] – Leadership blame game

3. Personal Anecdotes – Planes, Saunas, and How America Looks Abroad

• Hosts relate harrowing U.S. airport shutdown stories and the surreal experience of being in Japan while the shutdown unfolds [17:21, 17:33].
• Doug finds himself in a Japanese sauna, surrounded by naked men watching U.S.-Japan tariff news: “I just felt very awkward sitting there…” [18:29]
• Amusing attempts to quiz locals about Trump and U.S. politics—most Japanese prefer not to share their opinions directly [19:17–19:44].
• International perspective: Even in Sweden, Americans encounter skepticism and U.S. government dysfunction is met with bewilderment [20:07].

4. Deep Dive: Masayoshi Son and the SoftBank Saga

Masayoshi Son’s Career Arc

• Japanese entrepreneur who founded SoftBank, now Japan’s second-largest company (after Toyota) [21:17–21:35].
• Early investor in Yahoo (helping Yahoo’s dominance in Japan) and made perhaps the greatest single tech investment ever: turning $20 million in Alibaba into $70 billion+ [27:39–29:38].
• Survived losing $70 billion in the dot-com crash—famously “the person who lost the most money of any human on Earth” [24:59, 25:13].
• Reinvented SoftBank as a telecom giant, negotiated iPhone exclusivity in Japan, and remained an aggressive investor [25:26–26:27].

The Vision Fund

• In 2017, launched the $100 billion Vision Fund—by far the largest venture fund ever, much of it sourced from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi [32:35–36:09].
• Aggressive, “big stack bully” strategy: invested billions into late-stage companies, disrupting venture capital norms [38:09–39:02].
• Early notable wins: Coupang, DoorDash, NVIDIA (though they sold early).
  Notable failures: WeWork ($16B lost), Didi, Katerra [41:03–43:29].

“He is the guy in the meme who just won’t quit. He’s not going to quit gambling because he’s about to make it big.”
—Doug [25:29]

“He’s Martingale betting…”
—Atrioc [54:56]

Recent Moves

• New focus: raising $500 billion (Stargate project) for AI infrastructure in the U.S., in partnership with OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, and Microsoft [45:41–47:02].
• SoftBank and OpenAI also announced a JV to deliver AI solutions specifically to Japanese businesses [48:00–48:45].

“Every time you hear about somebody like this… they have the money and just want to run the world for 10 more years.”
—Doug [60:15]

Impact and Analogy

• Son’s willingness to throw massive capital into markets has distorted global competition, “corroded the game,” and helped fuel tech bubbles similar to how unchecked spending distorts sports leagues [50:34, 57:24].
• Reflections on why powerful billionaire founders never walk away, comparing Son and other business titans to obsessed content creators and athletes, in search of the next high [78:24–81:44].

Notable Quote

“He might be the biggest gambler in human history.”
—Doug [54:40]

5. Macro Snapshot – The Yen Carry Trade

• Japan’s decades-long near-zero interest rates made it uniquely affordable to borrow in yen, convert to other currencies, and invest in higher-yield assets such as U.S. Treasuries—at scale, a “free money printer” for big institutions [63:46–66:04].
• This reached a fever pitch in 2023–2024 when U.S. interest rates spiked and the yen weakened, turbocharging the trade [68:35].
• The trade illustrates deeper challenges for Japan: monstrous government debt forces low rates, keeping the yen weak and making the economy reliant on foreign capital outflows [69:41–73:52].

“If you had all the people dedicating all of their mental energy and talent and intellect to that... what if they made things, dude?”
—Doug [75:06]

• The money made this way doesn’t build anything—just exploits global price distortions, raising questions about how society rewards financial engineering over productive work [75:06–76:26].

Memorable Moments & Quotes

On Political Leadership

• "Nobody can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like the Democrats."
  —Atrioc quoting Dan Pfeiffer [08:44]
• “We are going to cave in a way where we can say we didn’t cave.”
  —Doug [11:06]

On Masayoshi Son’s Mentality

• “Life is too short to do anything small.”
  —Doug, paraphrasing Masayoshi Son [33:38]
• “He might be the biggest gambler in human history.”
  —Doug [54:40]

On Global Markets

• “There’s people who… their main job has been buying money from Japan, buying U.S. Treasuries, holding it, and making billions… they haven’t created anything.”
  —Doug [75:06]

On Power and Human Obsession

• “You wouldn’t be in this position if you weren’t kind of fucked up like all of us.”
  —Doug [79:48]
• “Faker needs to go to game five of the world championship to feel something…”
  —Connor [81:58]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:00–03:44] — Why record in Japan? Shutting down the U.S.
• [03:44–15:16] — The shutdown saga: who flipped, political calculations, what was won/lost
• [17:21–20:49] — On-the-ground airport stories, American dysfunction, and global perspectives
• [21:17–48:45] — Story of Masayoshi Son & SoftBank: origin, risk, Vision Fund, impacts
• [50:01–57:24] — Gambling, bubbles, and the consequences of capital distortion
• [63:46–73:52] — The yen carry trade explained, economics of easy money in Japan
• [75:31–77:48] — Social value, politics, and what’s broken in financial incentives
• [78:24–81:44] — Why powerful people never retire: power, content and addiction
• [81:53–84:00] — Teaser for upcoming Japan-focused episodes, anime jokes, outro

What’s Next?

• Next episode will feature Jeffrey Hall, a professor and expert on Japanese politics and economics (as seen on BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN), to break down “what’s really going on in Japan” [74:01–74:33].
• Teaser for a comedic deep-dive with two YouTubers, scheduled for release around Christmas [82:49].

Closing Banter

• Obligatory anime reference: “What do you guys think about Luffy? ...I think he’s Sugoi.”
  —Doug, Connor, Atrioc riffing on using the Trash Taste set [83:21–83:34]
• On the cyclical fate of Masayoshi Son: “He needs 30 more years to run it back again one last time. That’s the real trilogy of this story...”
  —Connor [61:11–61:25]

This episode delivers a sharp blend of irreverent humor, sobering political analysis, and deep, accessible business storytelling—complete with ranting, real-world anecdotes, and a side of anime. Whether you’re following the shutdown, the global tech economy, or just curious about how business and political power are wielded at terrifying scale, this is an essential listen.

End of Episode Summary