Les Clés – Episode Summary

Podcast: Les Clés
Host: Arnaud Ruyssen (RTBF)
Episode: "Bruxelles sera-t-elle bientôt à court d’argent ?"
Date: November 19, 2025

Overview: Episode Theme & Purpose

In this episode, host Arnaud Ruyssen delves into the alarming budget crisis of the Brussels-Capital Region. With the public bank Belfius terminating a major credit line and the region lacking a valid budget or full government, the discussion focuses on the real risk of a financial "shutdown" in Brussels. Key questions investigate how and why the situation has worsened, whether the region might genuinely run out of cash in 2025, what the ripple effects could be, and whether help from federal authorities is possible or even legal. Ruyssen is joined by two experts—Céline Romainville, professor of constitutional law, and Guillaume Delvaux, doctoral researcher and economist—both from UCLouvain.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background: How Did We Get Here?

• Political Deadlock:

  • Brussels has had no functional government for over 530 days since the last election (00:56), operating with only a budget for “current affairs” and no official new budget since October 2023.
  • "Le navire fonce, il y a des grosses difficultés, il y a de plus en plus d’icebergs autour, mais il n’y a plus personne pour commander." — Guillaume Delvaux (06:59)

• Loss of Credit Confidence:

  • Belfius, a major public bank, announced it will stop a €500 million credit line from January 2026—usually used to manage temporary cash shortfalls (00:16, 02:06).

• Increasing Deficits and Debt:

  • Without a new budget or government, Brussels continues to operate on “douzièmes provisoires,” replicating previous years’ spending without the means to adapt (06:59–08:56).
  • The total regional public debt exploded from €8.6 billion (2020) to €15.6 billion (end of 2024), with the debt-to-revenue ratio now at 254%—higher than Wallonia (09:32).

2. Current Financial Risks

• “Snowball” Debt Effect:

  • Every year, more regional income is spent servicing the debt—now €415 million (almost 7–8% of the budget), dramatically up from €85 million just a year earlier (11:43–12:39).

• Potential Budget Shutdown:

  • If credit/cash runs out around April–May 2026, the region may not be able to pay civil service salaries, social benefits, or subsidies (15:47, 17:29).

• Investor Distrust:

  • The withdrawal by Belfius ("un signal très négatif sur les marchés") risks making Brussels loans more expensive or inaccessible as external investors lose confidence (13:16–15:47).

3. Political and Legal Dimensions

• Divergent Political Reactions:

  • Open VLD (Flemish liberals) sound the alarm publicly; Francophone parties are more discreet, with some accusing Belfius of colluding with liberal pressure tactics (18:00).
  • "On reste muet... certains à gauche pointent le rôle de la banque Belfius dans cette séquence." — Sarah Pousset (18:00)

• Federal Bailout? No Legal Mechanism:

  • There is no legal provision in Belgian law for a federal bailout of a federated region experiencing a liquidity crisis (20:48–22:09).
  • "Il n’y a pas de dispositif... qui gouverne cette situation d’une crise de liquidité d’une entité fédérée." — Céline Romainville (20:48)
  • Federal aid would likely come with heavy conditions, risking Brussels’ autonomy (24:35). The principle built into Belgian federalism is that regions carry their own financial risks and must not endanger federal finances.

4. Possible Scenarios, Precedents, and Risks

• Potential Federal Intervention:

  • Could be modeled after Wallonia’s flood bailout (federal government lends at its rates), but would drastically reduce Brussels’ autonomy and can trigger lengthy political negotiations due to differing federal/regional majorities (24:01–25:36).

• “Tutelle” or Federal Oversight:

  • If Brussels must accept federal terms, it could face imposed austerity measures, citing examples like Greece (Troika oversight) or Birmingham (UK), where drastic cuts led to visible public service breakdowns (26:02–28:10).
  • Notable warning: “Max la hache” in Birmingham reduced culture spending to zero and provoked prolonged public sector strikes and visible urban decline.

• Ultimate Risk: Autonomy at Stake

  • Financial dependence means practical loss of self-rule, threatening the “fait bruxellois” identity.
  • "Si dans les faits, la région... a besoin d’aller chercher de l’argent à d’autres niveaux de pouvoir, cette autonomie sera remise en question." — Céline Romainville (29:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "C’est un travail collectif qui a intégré des juristes, des économistes... un travail de longue haleine sur les finances."
  — Arnaud Ruyssen (06:13)
• "Le déficit s’auto-alimente... c’est ce qu’on appelle l’effet boule de neige."
  — Guillaume Delvaux (13:16)
• "Le plus gros problème avec le retrait de Belfius... c’est le coup porté à l’image de la région."
  — Guillaume Delvaux (15:47)
• "Il n’y a pas de dispositif... qui gouverne cette situation d’une crise de liquidité d’une entité fédérée."
  — Céline Romainville (20:48)
• "Dans tous les cas, il y aura des conditions importantes [en cas d’aide fédérale]... qui diminueront de facto l’autonomie de la région."
  — Céline Romainville (24:35)
• “On avait cette fameuse Troïka qui décidait tout à leur place. (À Birmingham) Max la hache tranche dans les dépenses publiques et il tranche fort... c’est tout l’écosystème public à Birmingham qui est drastiquement diminué."
  — Guillaume Delvaux (26:20)
• "Si dans les faits, la région de Bruxelles-Capital... a besoin d’aller chercher de l’argent à d’autres niveaux de pouvoir, cette autonomie sera remise en question."
  — Céline Romainville (29:55)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:16-00:47: Introduction to Brussels’ potential budget crisis
• 02:06-02:30: Eric Doré explains the role of credit lines in regional finance
• 06:59-08:56: Guillaume Delvaux explains the danger of governing without a budget or government
• 09:32: The debt has increased by €7 billion since 2020
• 11:43-12:39: Explanation of debt service rise, the “snowball” effect
• 15:47-16:39: Real risk of Brussels running out of cash in Spring 2026
• 18:00: Political reactions; Francophone parties and left-wing critique of Belfius’ decision
• 20:48-24:01: Céline Romainville explains the lack of legal mechanism for federal intervention
• 26:02-28:10: Examples of federal or national bailouts (Greece, Birmingham UK); real-life consequences
• 29:55: The ultimate political risk—loss of Brussels’ autonomy

Conclusion: Risks Layered & Warnings to Policymakers

Ruyssen summarizes that Brussels faces three nested risks:

• A short-term cash crunch in Spring 2026
• The risk of a runaway financial spiral without a new government/budget
• The long-term threat to Brussels’ political autonomy if it becomes dependent on federal or external rescue

The guests, speaking as both legal and economic experts, warn that while catastrophe isn’t inevitable, the “iceberg” is near and action is urgently needed.

Podcast in one sentence:
A sober, clear-eyed diagnosis of Brussels’ urgent budgetary crisis, revealing both immediate financial dangers and profound political risks to the region’s very autonomy if solutions aren’t found.