Podcast Summary: Les Clés – “Israël-Palestine, aux sources du conflit (3/3) : quand les ennemis de la paix s’imposent”
Date: October 7, 2025
Host: Arnaud Ruyssen
Guest: Vincent Lemire, historien (Université Gustave Eiffel, Paris)
Overview of the Episode
In the concluding part of this comprehensive series on the roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, host Arnaud Ruyssen is joined by historian Vincent Lemire to dissect the decisive moments and factors that allowed opponents of peace on both sides to seize power and shape the ongoing cycle of violence. This episode focuses on key turning points from the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, the failure of the Oslo process, the rise of Hamas and Benjamin Netanyahu, the eruption and consequences of the October 7, 2023 attacks, and, finally, recent international moves like France's recognition of a Palestinian state. The analysis is grounded in historical perspective, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical context, popular sentiment, and the actions of radical actors.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Turning Point: Assassination of Yitzhak Rabin (1995)
- Chronology and Impact
- The murder of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by an extremist settler (Yigal Amir) marked the end of real prospects for peace through Oslo.
- [01:46] Vincent Lemire:
« Il y a parfois des actes violents qui sont efficaces, qui sont des points de bifurcation historiques. [...] Igalamir a visé juste en fait, il a considéré à juste titre, que seul Yitzhak Rabin pouvait faire la paix avec Yasser Arafat. »
- Rabin, compared to de Gaulle, could speak convincingly for peace to the Israeli public, including the right wing, because of his military credentials and leadership.
2. Collapse of the Peace Process and Rise of Violence
- The Oslo Process Stalls
- Even as Oslo was maintained visually (conferences, summits), the process lost substance after Rabin's death. Both Israeli and Palestinian extremists, particularly the far-right and Hamas, worked systematically to undermine peace.
- [04:17] Host:
"En septembre 2000...la seconde intifada...une séquence qui va durer près de 5 ans."
- [04:38] Lemire:
« La seconde intifada est beaucoup plus militaire que la première, la répression va être encore plus violente, encore plus dure, il y a beaucoup beaucoup plus de morts. »
- Power of Spoilers
- The rising power of those opposed to compromise on both sides became apparent, escalating violence and derailing moderate leadership.
3. Leadership Vacuums and Radicalization
- Death of Arafat & Shift in Palestinian Leadership
- Arafat’s 2004 death (and the suspicions around it) removed a unifying figure with authority to negotiate or confront radical elements.
- Rise of Hamas, culminating in their electoral win in 2006—an opportunity missed by both Fatah and the international community, leading instead to civil war in Gaza and Hamas's seizure of power in 2007.
- [08:58] Lemire on 2006:
« Une erreur stratégique majeure...Ismail Haniyeh...aurait tout à fait pu emmener le Hamas vers une solution proche de celle de l'OLP. [...] On a accepté les demandes d'Abbas d’étouffer le nouveau gouvernement palestinien. »
- Consolidation of Extremes on Both Sides
- Simultaneously, Israel’s politics shift rightward, with Netanyahu emerging as a dominant ideological (revisionist) figure, advocating for expansion and force over diplomacy.
- [10:44] Lemire:
« Netanyahou...est un idéologue [...] le projet sioniste il doit aller de la mer Méditerranée jusqu'au Jourdain...ça ne marchera que par la force. »
4. Popular Disillusion and the “Enemies of Peace”
- Electoral Dynamics
- The continued election of the far-right in Israel and Hamas in Gaza signifies deep public disenchantment with peace—which failed in practice to deliver tangible benefits to average people on either side.
- [13:38] Lemire:
« En histoire, il y a des fenêtres d’opportunité qui s’ouvrent et qui se referment. [...] les populations ne retirent pas les bénéfices de la paix. »
- Everyday Realities
- For Israelis: more terror attacks after Oslo, undermining faith in the peace process.
- For Palestinians: increased checkpoints, restricted movement, a sense that life under Oslo became, paradoxically, harder.
- [14:14] Lemire:
« Il y a une judiciarisation de la vie des Palestiniens qui devient de plus en plus compliqué. »
5. October 7, 2023: Attack and Counterattack
- Explaining (Not Justifying) the Violence
- The Hamas attack is described as a “classic” act of terrorism—shocking but not surprising given accumulating political mechanics.
- [17:14] Lemire:
« On est choqué mais pas surpris. » « Comprendre n’est jamais justifier. »
- Tactical Calculations
- The attack by Hamas was designed to provoke extreme Israeli retaliation, leading to global outrage and a loss of support for Israel—and it worked as intended.
- [21:23] Lemire:
« Le piège que Sinoir a tendu à Israël, Israël est tombé dedans, et toujours dedans... Israël est en train de perdre la guerre, non seulement de l’opinion internationale, mais du droit international. »
6. The Humanitarian Toll and Political Cynicism
- Gaza’s Ordeal
- Massive civilian casualties and displacement, deliberate strategies of martyrdom and escalation on both sides.
- [23:29] Lemire:
« C’est une guerre révolutionnaire... Aujourd’hui, il y a plus de 250 000 personnes mortes ou amputées ou blessées [à Gaza]... »
- Plans from the Israeli far-right for the total expulsion of Gazans are stated openly by members of government.
7. Recent Developments: Recognition of Palestine
- France Recognizes Palestine (September 2025)
- The episode ends on France’s—and other Western countries’—recognition of the State of Palestine, representing a paradigm shift: recognition first, negotiations second.
- [27:38] Lemire:
« C’est une décision historique au sens strict parce qu’on retourne la perspective [...] On reconnait d’abord l’État palestinien et on crée ensuite les conditions de son effectivité. »
- This shift, Lemire argues, could provide practical and symbolic benefits—legal standing, hope for the population, and a new starting point for a frozen process.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)
- On Oslo’s Failure and Spoilers:
[03:49] Vincent Lemire:« C’est comme si on avait donné aux ennemis de la paix, donc extrême droite israélienne et Hamas, une to-do liste en fait [...] Et c’est ce qu’ils ont fait. »
- On What Makes Extremes "Win"
[13:38] Vincent Lemire:« En histoire, il y a des fenêtres d’opportunité qui s’ouvrent et qui se referment. »
- October 7, 2023 – Not Surprised, Only Shocked
[17:14] Vincent Lemire:« On est choqué mais pas surpris. »
- On the Logic of Terrorism
[18:21] Vincent Lemire:« Tuer 1200 personnes et en terroriser 8 millions... Ça s’appelle du terrorisme. »
- On the Generational Shift in Global Opinion
[21:23] Vincent Lemire:« Plus on est jeune, moins on soutient Israël et plus on soutient la Palestine dans des proportions gigantesques. »
- On Recognizing Palestine as a New Paradigm
[27:38] Vincent Lemire:« On constate que Oslo est un échec complet...on fait le contraire. On reconnait d’abord l’État palestinien... »
Timestamps for Important Segments
- 00:00 — Framing the episode’s stakes, recalling the contradictory promises at the heart of the conflict
- 01:27–03:40 — Rabin’s assassination and its immediate historical consequences
- 04:17–05:09 — Outbreak and nature of the second intifada
- 05:39–08:11 — End of Arafat era, rise of Hamas, and missed opportunity in 2006
- 10:44–13:09 — Netanyahu’s redefinition of Israeli politics and the prominence of hardline ideology
- 13:31–16:46 — Erosion of faith in peace on both sides; material consequences for civilians under Oslo
- 17:14–21:23 — October 7, 2023 attack: causes, planning, and intended consequences
- 21:23–23:29 — The humanitarian disaster in Gaza and strategic cynicism on both sides
- 26:31–31:05 — France’s recognition of Palestine, the logic and potential consequences of recognition first
Conclusion: Understanding, Not Justifying
The episode’s closing notes stress that understanding these dynamics is not to justify violence or atrocities, but to analyze the interplay of history, political opportunity, and the choices of leaders and populations. The recent shift by France—and its potential to change the diplomatic landscape—suggests that while wounds are deep and peace remains distant, evolving strategies may yet open new windows for resolution.
For further exploration, listeners are directed to consult Vincent Lemire’s Atlas historique du Moyen-Orient (Les Arènes) and previous parts of the podcast series.