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DISCUSSION

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EPISODE

In this episode, Pascal dives deep into the macro forces driving Bitcoin’s recent lows and hints at a possible “bounce” ahead. He explains why AI investment and liquidity trends are critical clues to understanding crypto’s big picture — and how to position yourself for what’s coming next.

Substack article: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/emergency-post-a-personal-note-to

SUPPORT

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LINKS

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SOCIALS

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CHAPTERS

00:00 Introduction & Coldcard Situation01:43 High-Level Perspective02:14 Tariffs, Fiscal Flows, and Market Impacts04:06 Correlation Between Fiscal Flows and Bitcoin Rally05:00 Liquidity Model and Short-Term Impulses07:46 Global Liquidity and Market Signals09:02 Oil, Inflation, and Interest Rate Impacts09:30 Bitcoin's Long-Term Trend and Gold Ratio11:23 12-Month RSI and Bottoming Indicators12:19 On-Chain Data: Long-Term Holder Profit Taking13:14 Realized Cap and Bottoming Zones15:23 Market Sentiment and Long-Term Holder Behavior17:12 Market Bottoming Signals and Long-Term Trends19:55 Technical Analysis: Moving Averages and Support Levels20:24 Funding Rates and Market Leverage22:40 Options Market and Implied Volatility24:32 Market Outlook: Short-Term Bullishness and Risks25:24 When Will the Bull Market Start? Indicators and Risks27:14 MSTR, GBTC and more29:21 Summary and Next Steps for Bitcoin InvestorsDisclaimer

The publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural people only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.