Follow-up to: 2023 in AI predictions.

Here I collect some AI predictions made in 2024. It's not very systematic, it's a convenience sample mostly from browsing Twitter/X. I prefer including predictions that are more specific/testable. I'm planning to make these posts yearly, checking in on predictions whose date has expired. Feel free to add more references to predictions made in 2024 to the comments. (Thanks especially @tsarnick and @AISafetyMemes for posting about a lot of these.)

Predictions about 2024

I'll review predictions from previous posts that are about 2024.

the gears to ascension: "Hard problem of alignment is going to hit us like a train in 3 to 12 months at the same time some specific capabilities breakthroughs people have been working on for the entire history of ML finally start working now that they have a weak AGI to apply to, and suddenly critch's [...]

---

Outline:

(00:40) Predictions about 2024

(01:32) Predictions made in 2024

(01:37) December 2024

(02:31) September 2025

(02:54) October 2025

(03:06) December 2025

(03:54) April 2026

(04:22) June 2026

(04:33) August 2026

(04:57) November 2026

(05:08) Februrary 2027

(05:28) December 2027

(07:53) 2028

(09:56) 2029

(12:27) 2030

(13:45) 2032

(14:28) 2034

(14:56) 2039

(16:02) 2044

---

First published:
January 1st, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CJ4sppkGcbnGMSG2r/2024-in-ai-predictions

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.