The context for this post is primarily Only Law Can Prevent Extinction, but after first drafting a half-assed comment, I decided to get off my ass and write a whole-assed post.

I agree with Eliezer's main thesis that individual violence against AI researchers is both morally wrong and strategically stupid. Where I disagree is with the claim that international law can prevent extinction. It can't, for the following reasons.

I. International law is largely a fiction (especially when interests diverge sharply)

The analogy with nuclear weapons is a poor one. North Korea signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and developed nuclear weapons anyway. The treaty deterred only those who weren't very motivated anyway. And the reason why the US and Russia didn't nuke each other has nothing to do with international treaties (see point II).

In practice, powerful countries disregard international law whenever they want. A stark example of this is the Budapest Memorandum: in 1994, Ukraine surrendered all its nuclear warheads in exchange for written sovereignty guarantees from Russia, the US, and the UK. Russia annexed a part of Ukraine in 2014, and the international community expressed concern. Russia launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, and the first thing [...]

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Outline:

(00:36) I. International law is largely a fiction (especially when interests diverge sharply)

(02:01) II. The AI race is perceived as asymmetrical, unlike nuclear MAD

(03:03) III. There is virtually zero possibility of consensus on AI risk, unlike nuclear weapons

(04:41) IV. The proposed enforcers have a demonstrated track record of not enforcing things

(05:30) V. GPU control is not analogous to nuclear material control

(06:58) VI. A flawed treaty is not better than nothing

(08:26) So is there a better way?

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
May 9th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z377spboBjyFAAYAz/international-law-cannot-prevent-extinction-either

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.