Workers at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Indian Head, Maryland, the only facility where torpedo fuel is produced for the U.S. Navy

In the event of a late-2020s Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan, leading to a US-China military conflict, what would be the most urgent bottlenecks in military equipment?

Where is there the greatest need to scale up defense manufacturing?

I am not an expert in military matters, so take all this with a grain of salt. But I looked into this question and it seems to have a single clear-cut answer: energetics. (That is, explosives and propellants for munitions like missiles and torpedoes).

The US has extremely small manufacturing capacity for energetics, and in the event of a Pacific war, demand would rapidly exceed supply.

What Does a US-China War Look Like?

Military experts think there's a substantial, but not overwhelming, chance that China will invade Taiwan before 2030.

Metaculus predicts an invasion at 13% by 2028, and 25% by 2030.

The “Davidson window”, named for retired Admiral Philip S. Davidson, refers to the view that China will invade Taiwan by 2027, which “gained widespread attention” following former CIA director William J. Burns’ 2023 announcement [...]

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Outline:

(01:01) What Does a US-China War Look Like?

(04:28) Munitions Shortages

(07:15) The Energetics Supply Chain is Tiny

(11:34) Is There A (Tech) Business Here?

(14:36) It May Be Too Late

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
March 13th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZyXdwmBKnuTZ5CL7W/things-that-go-boom

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