Introducing Plan A

The folks who brought you AI 2027, a so far remarkably accurate set of predictions despite those predictions having seemed freaky to many at the time, now bring you their positive vision that involves more freaky predictions: Plan A.

These guys have rather strong prediction track records. In addition to AI 2027, among other things, Daniel Kokotajlo has What 2026 Looks Like (which is remarkably similar to what 2026 looks like) and Ryan Greenblatt, who is also the chief scientist at Redwood Research, was the #2 most accurate AI forecaster in 2025 out of 413 entries. Past performance is as always no guarantee of future success.

If you’re the type to read at least some of my posts, or if you thought AI 2027 was worth reading, I recommend reading Plan A.

There is also an unofficial visual novel version, for minds very different from my own who would want that.

To be clear up front: I am not endorsing Plan A. I am not suggesting we should go off and try to enact Plan A as written. There is a lot more work to do and a lot of potential [...]

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Outline:

(00:09) Introducing Plan A

(01:42) You Only Get Five Words

(08:44) Proactive Response To Objections

(09:30) Initial Introductions and Endorsements

(14:50) A Positive Vision

(17:53) Alternative Plans

(19:31) Plan S for Shutdown

(21:35) Something (Unexpectedly Good) Ever Happens

(23:10) Thus Selective Optimism

(24:17) Quickly, There's No Time

(25:20) Race Conditions

(27:23) This Is A Lot Of Diffusion And Economic Growth

(28:36) Living In China

(30:35) Planning For Shifting Overton Windows Is Essential

(31:51) The Standard Handwave

(35:23) Some Equate Any Controls Over Compute To Authoritarian Dystopia And Those Same People Mostly Think Superintelligence Won't Happen

(37:07) Vitalik Buterin Is Right, The Crux Is Future AI Capability Levels

(44:45) The Authoritarian Objection

(50:17) Concepts Of A Plan

(52:03) The Kitchen Sink

(53:13) Selective Claims Of Authoritarianism

(55:12) You Either Can Steer The Future Or You Cannot

(57:40) Cooperative Alignment

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First published:
July 11th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z9tXCGogEgkgHSh8G/introduction-for-and-reactions-to-plan-a

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Flowchart showing how Total Research Transparency leads to multiple policy outcomes and goals.

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