The mainstream media continues to sleep on the most important story in the world.

It has now been two days since Anthropic flew its people out to Washington, and I offered my previous update. We have heard nothing back from those meetings.

Prediction market prices have moved rapidly, and have once again stabilized at about a 55% chance of restoration by July 1, 30% by June 26 and 12% by June 19.

That seems modestly higher than I would put those numbers, but not unreasonable.

Every day that Fable remains unavailable further damages America, its cyber defenses, its productivity and the world's trust in its AI and supposed ‘tech stack.’

Every day that Mythos remains unavailable is a day the free world's top companies and cyber defenders lose in their race against the avalanche headed their way.

Mostly we have learned and confirmed more about exactly what happened. We know more about what Amazon did, what the official letter said, what the supposed ‘jailbreak’ was (literally, and I am not making this up, ‘fix this code’) and more.

It is all about as stupid as it could have been.

Table of [...]

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Outline:

(01:22) There Was No Fable Jailbreak

(07:16) If This Jailbreak Was Real It Would Be Trivial To Prove It

(08:35) No Eyes

(09:41) What The Letter Actually Said

(11:29) Anthropic Cannot Challenge This But If It Did Then It Plausibly Wins

(13:28) What Happened At Amazon

(17:43) This Was Not About Chinese Access

(18:01) Absolute Discretion And Ad Hockery Is Not Deregulation