Letters from an American – December 3, 2025
Host: Heather Cox Richardson
Published: December 4, 2025
Theme: The shifting political landscape in the U.S. leading up to the 2026 midterms, with a particular focus on affordability issues, Republican Party rifts, and the ongoing battle over health care and transparency.
Main Theme & Purpose
Heather Cox Richardson unpacks the significant political shifts signaled by a recent special congressional election in Tennessee, provides a detailed look at the current and coming battles over affordability and health care, and assesses deepening internal Republican divisions. She also covers evolving congressional responses to investigations into the “Epstein Files.”
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Tennessee Special Election and Broader Political Shifts
- Election Results (00:06):
- Republican Matt Van Epps won Tennessee’s 7th district by ~9 points—a district Trump won by 24 in 2024.
- Indicates a 13-point swing toward Democrats.
- G. Eliot Morris (Strength in Numbers): This is a “five alarm fire for the party ahead of the 2026 midterms.”
- Special Election Swings:
- Congressional special elections: average 17-point Democratic swing.
- State legislatures: 11-point Democratic swing.
- Projected swing for 2026 midterms: 7–8 points towards Democrats, which could flip the House and put the Senate in play.
- Quote (01:15):
- House Republican: “Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle.”
2. Affordability: The Central Issue of 2026 (02:19)
- Both Democrats and many Republicans agree the swing is largely due to affordability—rising costs for food, housing, energy, gasoline, and health care.
- Trump’s Position:
- Claimed “affordability doesn't mean anything to anybody” (contrary to voter sentiment).
- Morris: Affordability also reflects frustration at economic stagnation and the “elusiveness of the American dream.”
3. Economic Data and Republican Response (03:08)
- ADP Report: 32,000 jobs lost in November, mostly in small businesses (a potential warning sign).
- Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce):
- Admits disruption from Trump’s policies, blames deportations for job losses, predicts a rebound in 2026.
- Quote (03:46):
“So I think this is just a near term event and you'll see as the numbers come through over the next couple of months, you'll see that all pass and next year the numbers are going to be fantastic.”
4. Health Care Stalemate (04:23–08:10)
- Republican Budget Priorities:
- Extended tax cuts for rich and corporations, but let ACA premium tax credits expire.
- At least 2 million will lose coverage; millions more face higher premiums.
- Undermining the ACA remains a Republican goal, despite 75–80% of the public supporting the credits.
- Democratic Tactics:
- Senate Democrats blocked funding bills (October) unless credits were restored.
- House Democrats circulate discharge petition; have 214 signatures.
- Pete Aguilar (Democratic Caucus Chair) (08:10):
“We're giving them an opportunity to do that... Democrats will go anywhere and have any discussion with our Republican colleagues about addressing the Affordable Care act tax credits or the affordability crisis. If Republicans want to have a conversation about solutions, we're all ears.”
- Republican Dilemma:
- Some want to let ACA credits lapse to kill the law; vulnerable Republicans seek a temporary extension ahead of the midterms.
- Trump’s indecision: Hints at extension with new restrictions, but says (06:45):
“I'd rather not extend them at all...the Unaffordable Care act has been a disaster.”
5. Republican Party Tensions and House Paralysis (09:04)
- Speaker Mike Johnson’s Leadership:
- Criticized by House Republicans for prioritizing Trump’s wishes over legislating.
- Kept House out of session for weeks, resulting in little legislative accomplishment except for the “One big beautiful Bill act,” which is unpopular.
- Quote from Jamie Raskin (regarding Judiciary Committee):
- “What are our colleagues so afraid of that they won't let the American people hear directly from the special counsel? The American people deserve to hear the full, unvarnished truth about Special Counsel Smith's years long effort to investigate and prosecute the crimes committed by Donald Trump and his co conspirators.” (11:16)
- Further Flashpoints:
- Judiciary Committee: Subpoena battle over testimony from special counsel Jackson Smith (Trump/Jan. 6 investigation).
- Ongoing government shutdowns and threats.
6. Epstein Files and Alleged Partisan Shielding (12:36–13:42)
- Bipartisan Pressure on Attorney General Pam Bondi:
- Senators and House members of both parties demand clarity on Bondi’s handling of alleged new evidence in Epstein-related investigations.
- Suspicions Bondi is shielding Trump by muddying the waters with new investigations focused on Democrats.
- Lawmakers want transparency and insist on meeting the statutory December 19 deadline for document release.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle.”
— Anonymous House Republican (01:01) -
G. Eliot Morris:
- “Something big has shifted in the national environment.” (01:39)
- “The fact that a rural Tennessee district ended up just a high single digits win for Republicans should be a five alarm fire for the party ahead of the 2026 midterms.” (01:20)
-
Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce, on job losses):
- “This is just a near term event… next year, the numbers are going to be fantastic.” (03:50)
-
Pete Aguilar (Democratic Caucus Chair):
- “We're giving them an opportunity…Democrats will go anywhere and have any discussion with our Republican colleagues about addressing the Affordable Care act tax credits or the affordability crisis. If Republicans want to have a conversation about solutions, we're all ears.” (08:27)
-
Jamie Raskin (House Judiciary, on the Smith subpoena):
- “The American people deserve to hear the full, unvarnished truth about Special Counsel Smith's years long effort to investigate and prosecute the crimes committed by Donald Trump and his co conspirators.” (11:16)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Tennessee Election Analysis & Political Shifts: 00:06–02:19
- Affordability & Economic Frustrations: 02:19–03:46
- Policy Responses & Health Care Fight: 03:46–08:10
- Republican House Infighting, Judiciary Moves: 09:04–12:36
- Epstein Files Letter & Bipartisan Demands: 12:36–13:42
Tone and Style
Richardson’s tone remains factual, analytical, and deeply historical, weaving present-day shifts within their larger political context. She adopts the language of sources and party operatives to show the urgency, frustration, and conflict on both sides of the aisle, especially as 2026 looms.
This episode provides a granular look at the seismic transformations currently underway in American politics, with affordability and health care front and center, and a Republican Party faced with both electoral threat and internal discord.