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Foreign.
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December 3, 2025 Republican Matt Van Epps won yesterday's special election in Tennessee's 7th congressional district, but Republicans aren't celebrating triumphantly. Van Epps beat out Democrat Afton Bain by about nine points in a district Donald Trump and Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn each one in 2024 points. Yesterday's vote shows a 13 point shift toward the Democrats in about a year. Aaron Pelisch and Meredith Lee Hill of Politico reported the comment of a House Republican after officials called the election tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle. Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain. As G. Eliot Morris of Strength in Numbers noted, the fact that a rural Tennessee district ended up just a high single digits win for Republicans should be a five alarm fire for the party ahead of the 2026 midterms. Morris explains that congressional special elections have swung 17 points on average toward the Democrats, while special elections for seats in state legislatures have swung toward the Democrats by about 11 points. Morris combines these results with turnout differences in special midterm and presidential elections to estimate that as of Right now, the 2026 midterms can be expected to see a swing of 7 to 8 points toward the Democrats. These numbers would give Democrats control of the House of Representatives and put the Senate into play as well. It is safe to assume, Morris says, that something big has shifted in the national environment. He adds that the Republican Party will likely find itself defending an unusually wide array of seats next year, even in districts previously thought to be immune to national swings.
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Democrats and many Republicans think that shift has come about in large part over the issue of affordability the rising costs of food, housing, energy, gasoline and health care that are squeezing most Americans. Trump insisted yesterday that affordability doesn't mean anything to anybody, but most Americans would disagree. According to Morris of Strength in Numbers, the word affordability appears to mean not just the pressure of higher prices, but also frustration at economic stagnation, the unfair way in which the economic system operates, the idea of being stuck and unable to rise, the current elusiveness of the American dream.
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After the voters rejected Republican candidates in the early November elections, Republicans vowed they would address affordability issues. Trump initially moved in that direction but now is rejecting the idea that his economic policies have caused harm hardship. Although news dropped today from Automatic data processing or ADP, a private human resources management company, that the US lost about 32,000 jobs last month, the losses were primarily in small businesses, which are often considered a bellwether for the rest of the economy.
