Letters from an American: November 26, 2024 – Detailed Summary

Heather Cox Richardson's podcast episode for November 26, 2024, delves into the recent political developments surrounding former President Donald Trump's sudden announcement of significant tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. The episode juxtaposes this event with President Joe Biden's announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East, providing a comprehensive analysis of both domestic policy maneuvers and international diplomacy.

1. Trump's Imposition of Tariffs via Social Media

At the outset of the episode, an unknown speaker highlights Donald Trump's recent declaration on his social media platform. Trump announced his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Mexico and Canada. The stated reasons for these tariffs are primarily to combat the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigration, which he terms an "invasion of our country."

"He [Trump] claims that they could solve the problem easily and that until they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price." [00:07]

Additionally, Trump reiterated his stance against China by threatening a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, exacerbating existing tariffs. This move signifies a continued reliance on trade barriers as a tool for policy enforcement, diverging from traditional governance methods centered around legislative and administrative processes.

2. Statistical Context and Policy Efficacy

Contrasting Trump's rhetoric, the episode presents data indicating improvements in the areas he targets:

• Drug Overdoses: Since 2023, there has been a 14.5% decrease in deaths from drug overdoses—the first decline since the epidemic's onset.

• Border Apprehensions: Illegal border crossings have dropped to their lowest since August 2020, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

A study by the Cato Institute is cited, revealing that from 2019 to 2024, over 80% of fentanyl seizures at US entry points involved U.S. citizens, with minimal involvement from undocumented immigrants and Canadian sources.

3. Economic Implications of Tariffs

Kathryn Rampal, an economics reporter for The Washington Post, provides a detailed analysis of the potential economic fallout from Trump's proposed tariffs:

• Mexico’s Exports: Mexico is a major trading partner, supplying the US with cars, machinery, electrical equipment, beer, and approximately $19 billion worth of fruits and vegetables. Half of the US’s fresh fruit imports, including two-thirds of tomatoes and 90% of avocados, come from Mexico.

• Agricultural Workforce: Transitioning agricultural production to the US poses challenges, particularly with about half of the 2 million agricultural workers being undocumented—a group Trump has pledged to deport.

• Canadian Trade: Canada exports diverse products to the US, including significant oil supplies. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddies, warns that a 25% tariff on Canadian crude oil could increase gas prices by 25 cents to 75 cents per gallon, potentially costing US consumers $6 billion to $10 billion annually. Additionally, tariffs on lumber and other building materials would escalate costs in the construction industry.

John Verano, a former trade negotiator under George W. Bush, opposes Trump's plans, stating they would breach existing trade agreements, notably the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Verano emphasizes that USMCA, negotiated during Trump's first term, is the "fairest, most balanced and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law."

4. Stakeholder Responses and Political Perspectives

The episode captures a spectrum of reactions from various stakeholders:

• Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager, suggests that Trump is "using tariffs as a weapon to achieve economic and political outcomes" beneficial to America, implying that his threats are strategic rather than immediate policy changes.

• Senator Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, views the tariff threats as a "negotiating tool," noting that foreign leaders are compelled to respond to Trump's maneuvers.

• Construction Industry Concerns: Julian Aguilar from NPR reports that in Texas, nearly 60% of the construction workforce is undocumented. Company executives warn that mass deportations would cripple the industry, halting infrastructure projects like highways and schools.

5. International Reactions and Diplomatic Tensions

Trump's declarations have prompted swift responses from international leaders:

• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum addressed Trump in an open letter, highlighting Mexico's effective immigration system and substantial efforts against drug trafficking. She emphasized that mexican authorities have seized significant quantities of drugs and weapons, attributing 70% of illegal weapons in Mexico to the US. She also warned of retaliatory tariffs if the US proceeds with its plans.

"Mexico has developed a comprehensive immigration system that has reduced border encounters by 75% since December 2023." [Timestamp not specified]

• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged the severity of the proposed tariffs, stating that a 25% levy would "devastate" Canada's economy. Danielle Smith, Alberta's Premier, attempted to mitigate backlash by asserting that Alberta's energy exports are delivered through secure pipelines, attributing no part of illegal activities to their shipments.

• Chinese Embassy Spokesperson Liu Pengu dismissed the notion of a successful tariff or trade war, asserting that China does not knowingly facilitate fentanyl precursor flows into the US.

6. Contrasting US Domestic and Foreign Policies: Biden’s Middle East Diplomacy

In stark contrast to Trump's provocative tariff announcements, President Joe Biden made a significant foreign policy announcement:

• Ceasefire Agreement: After prolonged negotiations, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a permanent ceasefire, brokered by the US and France, effective from 4 AM local time on Wednesday. This agreement aims to end hostilities that have resulted in substantial casualties and a refugee crisis, with over 3,000 Lebanese lives lost and significant numbers of Israeli soldiers and civilians killed.

• Biden's Vision for the Middle East: Biden outlined his broader strategy for lasting peace in the region, advocating for the establishment and recognition of both Israel and a Palestinian state. He emphasized the importance of transitioning tactical military gains into a strategic framework that ensures Israel's long-term security and regional prosperity.

"I believe this agenda remains possible... Today's announcement is a critical step in advancing that vision, peace is possible." [Timestamp not specified]

Biden's approach underscores a commitment to diplomatic solutions and multilateral engagement, contrasting with Trump's unilateral and confrontational tactics.

7. Concluding Insights

Heather Cox Richardson's episode underscores the divergent approaches of former President Trump and President Biden in addressing complex national and international issues. While Trump leverages abrupt and aggressive policy shifts through social media to assert control and address perceived threats, Biden focuses on sustained diplomatic efforts to foster long-term stability and peace. The episode highlights the intricate interplay between domestic policies, economic implications, and international relations, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of current political dynamics.

Produced by Soundscape Productions, Dedham, MA. Music composed by Michael Moss.