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November 7, 2024. Today, the Trump family posed for a post election photo. Missing from the group was former first lady Melania Trump. Joining the family was billionaire Elon Musk, who supported Trump's campaign both through his ownership of X, formerly Twitter, and then with $132 million in cash and with apparent giveaways to get voters to give the campaign personal information. As an immigrant from South Africa, Musk is barred from the presidency himself by the US Constitution, which requires that a president be born in the US out of the framer's concern that a foreign country could put a puppet in the presidency. But he is now very close to Trump and stands to gain significantly from a Trump presidency, both through deregulation and government contracts and through Trump's planned tariffs on Chinese imports will enable Musk to monopolize the electric vehicle market in the U.S. musk would also like a victory in the culture wars. He is strongly opposed to transgender rights. After the election results came out, Musk posted on X novus Ordo Seclorum, Latin for New World Order. At Trump's election party, Trump said, we have a new star. Elon. He is an amazing guy. We were sitting together tonight. You know, he spent two weeks in Philadelphia and different parts of Pennsylvania campaigning. He's a character. He's a special guy. He's a super genius, and we have to protect our geniuses. We don't have that many of them. We have to protect our super geniuses. Trump's new closeness with Musk presents an issue for the Republican Party. The President elect is 78 and has shown signs of mental and physical deterioration, making it possible that someone will need to take his place at some point in the next four years. The Vice President elect, current Ohio Senator J.D. vance, who is backed by billionaire Peter Thiel, is constitutionally the next in line for the presidency. But neither Musk nor Vance has Trump's popular support, making it unclear who will take over the leadership of the party if such a takeover is necessary. Whether either can command Trump's supporters is also unclear. What is clear is that neither of them has much experience in elected office. Vance was elected senator just two years ago, and Musk comes from the business world. There is another major problem for the party as well. Trump won the election in part by promising everything to everyone. But the actual policies of the MAGA party are unpopular even with many Republican voters. Notably, Trump has said he will appoint Musk to head a new government efficiency Commission, and Musk has vowed to cut at least $2 trillion from the federal budget such cuts would decimate government services, including food programs and Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Supplemental Nutrition programs disproportionately benefit rural areas, and Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are used much more heavily in counties that support Trump than those that don't. That will be a hard circle to square. So will Trump's promise to lower consumer costs while also putting tariffs of 10% to 20% on all foreign imports and of 60% on imports from China. Tariffs are borne by consumers, so by definition they will drive prices up. These two promises cannot be reconciled. Trump has promised mass deportations, and much of his base is fervently behind them. The Republican National Committee even had signs saying mass deportation now made up for attendees to wave at the party's convention. Priscilla Alvarez and Elena Treen of CNN reported today that Trump's allies have been preparing for mass detentions and deportations of undocumented immigrants, and the stock prices of private prison companies Geo Group and Corecivic have soared since Trump's election. Stephen T. Dennis of Bloomberg reported that on an earnings call today, Geo Chief Executive Officer Brian Evans told investors that filling currently empty beds could bring in $400 million a year and that the company can scale up its current surveillance, monitoring and transportation programs to handle millions of immigrants. This is to us an unprecedented opportunity, he said. But deporting up to 20 million people will be a logistical nightmare and is projected to cost from $88 billion to $315 billion a year. At the same time, much of the US economy depends on undocumented immigrants, and Republican businessmen will certainly object to losing their workers. Tom Homan, who served as acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement under Trump in his first term, backed away from some of the extremes of Trump's immigration policy when he told CBS last month, it's not going to be a mass sweep of neighborhoods. It's not going to be building concentration camps. I've read it all. It's ridiculous. There'll be targeted arrests. We know who we're going to arrest, where we're most likely to find them, based on numerous, you know, investigative processes. Meanwhile, Democratic state lawmakers have been preparing for a potential Trump administration for more than a year, and some are putting down public markers that they will not cooperate with the extreme policies of the Trump administration. Trump vowed to begin his mass deportation plan in Aurora, Colorado, where he maintained, contrary to the statements of local Republican officials, that Venezuelan gangs had taken over the city. Aurora is a suburb of Denver, and yesterday the mayor of Denver, Mike Johnston, told a reporter he would not cooperate with requests that are immoral or unethical or unfair. California governor Gavin Newsom called an emergency session of the California state Legislature to convene on December 2 to help bolster our legal resources and protect our state against any unlawful actions by the incoming Trump administration. It will focus on funding lawsuits against any actions that impact civil liberties, reproductive rights, protection for immigrants and climate initiatives. Newsom said the California lawmakers will seek to work with the incoming president, but let there be no mistake, we intend to stand with states across our nation to defend our Constitution and uphold the rule of law. California has the fifth largest economy in the world, and its population of 39 million people is more than four times the 9,590,000 people in Hungary, the country from which MAGA Republicans are taking much of their ideological vision. Illinois Governor J.B. pritzker, who has been called a happy warrior, held a press conference today telling reporters that he will continue working to keep Illinois a place of stability and competent governance and vowing to protect the people of his state no matter what the new administration does. To anyone who intends to come take away the freedom and opportunity and dignity of Illinoisans, I would remind you that a happy warrior is still a warrior, he said. You come for my people, you come through me. Trump has made it clear he intends to have a say in the decisions of the Federal Reserve, which manages interest rates. And during his first term, he frequently attacked Fed chair Jerome Powell, whom he appointed for not lowering rates to boost the economy. Trump's advisers have suggested the president can gain power over the nation's finances by removing members of the Fed in his next term. Today, when reporters asked Powell if he would resign before Trump takes office, he said no. When asked if Trump could fire or demote him or the other Fed governors, Powell was firm, not permitted under the law.
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Letters from an American was produced at Soundscape Productions, Dedham, MA. Recorded with music composed by Michael Moss.
Podcast Summary: Letters from an American – November 7, 2024
Heather Cox Richardson’s “Letters from an American” offers a nuanced exploration of the political landscape following the November 7, 2024, election. In this episode, Richardson delves into the post-election dynamics, focusing on the intricate relationship between former President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk, the internal challenges facing the Republican Party, and the looming policy changes that could reshape the American socio-political fabric.
The episode opens with a vivid depiction of the post-election scene, highlighting the absence of former First Lady Melania Trump and the notable presence of Elon Musk alongside the Trump family. Musk’s involvement is underscored by his substantial financial support to Trump's campaign—$132 million in cash—and his strategic use of his platform, X (formerly Twitter), to bolster the campaign's reach and gather voter data.
Notable Quote:
“As an immigrant from South Africa, Musk is barred from the presidency himself by the US Constitution... But he is now very close to Trump and stands to gain significantly from a Trump presidency.” (00:07)
Richardson emphasizes the constitutional barrier preventing Musk from holding the presidency, a safeguard established by the framers to avert foreign influence at the highest office. Nonetheless, Musk’s proximity to Trump positions him as a pivotal ally, potentially influencing key economic and regulatory policies, including deregulation and the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports. These tariffs could inadvertently grant Musk a monopoly in the U.S. electric vehicle market, aligning with his business ambitions.
The alliance between Trump and Musk introduces a complex dynamic within the Republican Party. At 78 years old, Trump’s advancing age and signs of mental and physical decline raise concerns about his long-term capacity to lead. This scenario posits a potential leadership vacuum, with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and Elon Musk as possible successors. However, both figures lack the widespread support that Trump commands, presenting uncertainty about their ability to maintain party cohesion and effectively lead.
Notable Quote:
“Neither Musk nor Vance has Trump’s popular support, making it unclear who will take over the leadership of the party if such a takeover is necessary.” (00:07)
Richardson points out that the lack of experience in elected office for both Vance, a relatively new senator, and Musk, primarily a business magnate, could hinder their effectiveness in political leadership roles.
Trump’s electoral success was partly attributed to his broad promises, aiming to appease a diverse voter base. However, Richardson highlights a discrepancy between these promises and the party’s actual policy stance, which lacks universal appeal even within the Republican electorate.
A significant policy focus is Trump’s plan to appoint Musk as the head of a new Government Efficiency Commission, coupled with the ambitious yet controversial goal to reduce the federal budget by at least $2 trillion. Such drastic cuts threaten essential government services, including food assistance programs, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The disproportionate reliance on these programs in rural, Trump-supporting counties complicates the feasibility of these budgetary reductions.
Furthermore, Trump’s pledge to lower consumer costs is juxtaposed with his intention to implement high tariffs—ranging from 10% to 20% on all foreign imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. Richardson astutely observes the inherent contradiction, as tariffs typically result in increased consumer prices, undermining the promise of cost reductions.
Notable Quote:
“These two promises cannot be reconciled.” (00:07)
A cornerstone of Trump’s platform is the promise of mass deportations, which enjoys fervent support among his base. Richardson details the preparations by Trump’s allies for extensive detentions and deportations of undocumented immigrants, noting the financial windfall for private prison companies like Geo Group and CoreCivic. These companies have seen their stock prices surge post-election, capitalizing on the anticipated increase in deportations.
Notable Quote:
“This is too an unprecedented opportunity,” said Geo CEO Brian Evans, referencing the potential influx of immigrants awaiting detention. (00:07)
However, the logistical and financial challenges are formidable, with projected costs ranging from $88 billion to $315 billion annually. Moreover, the U.S. economy’s reliance on undocumented labor presents a paradox, as deportations could disrupt various industries dependent on this workforce. Republican business leaders are likely to oppose measures that jeopardize their access to affordable, undocumented labor.
Tom Homan, former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, moderates expectations by dismissing extreme immigration actions, advocating instead for targeted arrests based on investigative findings. Nevertheless, the overarching plan for mass deportations remains a contentious and divisive issue.
In anticipation of a Trump administration, Democratic-led states have proactively arranged safeguards to counteract potential extreme policies. California and Illinois exemplify this resistance through legislative measures aimed at protecting civil liberties and state autonomy.
California’s Stance: Governor Gavin Newsom has convened an emergency session of the state legislature to enhance legal defenses against any Trump-initiated actions that could infringe upon civil liberties, reproductive rights, immigrant protections, and climate initiatives. Newsom’s declaration reflects California’s commitment to uphold constitutional values, even as the state boasts one of the world's largest economies.
Illinois’ Position: Governor J.B. Pritzker, characterized as a “happy warrior,” has vowed to maintain Illinois as a bastion of stability and competent governance. His assertive stance emphasizes the protection of Illinoisans’ freedoms and opportunities against any external threats posed by the incoming administration.
Notable Quote:
“You come for my people, you come through me.” – Governor J.B. Pritzker (00:07)
These state-level defenses signify a growing schism between federal intentions and state protections, potentially leading to legal battles and policy stand-offs.
A critical area of concern is Trump’s expressed desire to influence the Federal Reserve, particularly concerning interest rate decisions managed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. During his first term, Trump publicly criticized Powell for not lowering rates to stimulate the economy. Moving forward, Trump’s advisers have suggested mechanisms to undermine Fed autonomy, potentially by removing members to assert greater control over national financial policies.
When questioned about the possibility of resignations or dismissals of Fed officials, Powell remained steadfast, reaffirming the legal protections that prevent such actions. This resistance underscores the Federal Reserve’s independence as a cornerstone of U.S. economic stability.
Notable Quote:
“I have read it all. It’s ridiculous.” – Tom Homan on extreme immigration policies (00:07)
Heather Cox Richardson’s analysis paints a picture of a Republican Party at a crossroads, grappling with internal power struggles, policy inconsistencies, and external opposition from state governments. The alliance between Trump and Musk adds a layer of complexity, potentially steering the party towards business-centric policies that may not align with the broader Republican base’s preferences.
The promises of substantial budget cuts, conflicting economic policies, and aggressive immigration reforms present significant challenges that could alienate voters and strain party unity. Concurrently, state-level preparations for legal and legislative resistance reflect a nation deeply divided on the direction of its governance.
As the new administration prepares to navigate these tumultuous waters, the interplay between federal ambitions and state protections will be pivotal in shaping the future political and economic landscape of the United States.
Produced at Soundscape Productions, Dedham, MA. Recorded with music composed by Michael Moss.