What News Do We Trust? - Letters from an American

Podcast Summary: "What News Do We Trust?"

Podcast: Letters from an American
Host: Heather Cox Richardson
Episode Date: March 24, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Heather Cox Richardson examines the intersection of politics, war, economic markets, and trust in information during a turbulent period in US-Iran relations. She narrates a series of rapidly evolving events—provocative presidential statements, market fluctuations, conflicting diplomatic claims, and allegations of market manipulation. The episode’s central question is: In such a chaotic and narrative-driven environment, what sources of news and information can we really trust?

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Rapidly Shifting US-Iran Crisis and Presidential Statements

Timeline of Escalation and De-Escalation:
- Friday (post-market close): President Trump reassured the public that the war was "winding down," seemingly to calm fears after market losses stemming from his recent attack on Iran.
- Saturday morning (07:44): Trump escalated tensions with a direct military threat:
  
  “If Iran doesn’t fully open without threat the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first, thank you for your attention to this matter.” — Donald J. Trump [00:48]
- Sunday morning (07:23): Trump suggested “very good and productive” talks with Iran, announcing a five-day pause on military action—coinciding precisely with the period the US stock market was open.
Market Response:
- Following Trump’s “pause” announcement, the S&P 500 surged by 240 points and the price of Brent crude oil dropped.
- When Iran denied any such negotiations, the S&P fell by 120 points and Brent crude rebounded.

2. Conflicting Accounts and Information Warfare

Iranian Response:
- Iran categorically denied any direct or indirect contact with Trump’s administration, framing US statements as attempts to manipulate energy prices and buy time for new military plans.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated:
  
  “We are not the party that started this war and all such requests should be directed to Washington.” [03:56]
Market Manipulation Concerns:
- Adam Kobesi (Kobesi Letter) and economist Paul Krugman both raise pointed questions about the relationship between presidential announcements and market movements.
  - Krugman observes how someone with advance knowledge could have profited handsomely from oil futures, calling it "market manipulation."
  - Yoon Lee (CNBC) notes a suspicious jump in futures prices 15 minutes before Trump’s public statement.

3. Broader Themes: Credibility and Trust

Krugman’s Analysis:
- Explores the severe erosion of trust in US government statements, not just for allies but for adversaries.
  
  “You cannot trust anything, cannot trust any promises the United States makes… the default assumption should be that anything that this administration says is a lie.” — Paul Krugman [06:46]
- Emphasizes that both promises and threats from the current administration are “not at all credible.”
Diplomatic Backchannels or Wishful Thinking?
- Trump claims his envoy (Steve Witkoff) is in communication with Iran—later revealed as attempts routed through intermediaries, not state officials.
- Questions swirl about the roles of Jared Kushner and others with financial incentives in the Middle East, further undermining public trust.
Absurdist Turn in Statements:
- Trump’s on-the-record answers contradict public information, deliver vague details on supposed “15 points of agreement,” and make personal claims of controlling strategic resources:
  
  “Maybe me. Maybe me… Me and the ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is.” — Donald J. Trump on control of the Strait of Hormuz [08:02]
- Asserts a model of regime change akin to Venezuela, implying US-engineered leadership.

4. A World of Unreliable Narratives

Reporters press Trump with incisive questions, receiving contradicting or non-substantive answers:
- On Iranian nuclear agreements:
  
  “They have. They’ve agreed to that.” — Donald J. Trump [07:31]
- On a requested $200 billion for the war:
  
  “Ah, it’s always nice to have. It’s always nice to have. It’s a very inflamed world.” — Donald J. Trump [08:46]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Threats and Market Manipulation:
- “Attacking civilian infrastructure is a war crime… this threat against Middle East oil infrastructure made the market teeter again.” [01:20]
- “Someone who had insider knowledge could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures at very high prices… you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit indeed by the end of the day.” — Paul Krugman [04:40]
Collapse of Credibility:
- “The default assumption should be that anything that this administration says is a lie.” — Paul Krugman [06:46]
Trump’s Off-the-Cuff Diplomacy:
- “Maybe me. Maybe me… Me and the ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is.” [08:02]
- “Ah, it’s always nice to have. It’s always nice to have.” [08:46]

Timestamps for Important Segments

[00:00–01:20] – Trump statements (reassurance/war threats) and market impact
[02:55–04:40] – Allegations of market manipulation; reactions from economists and reporters
[04:45–06:46] – Krugman on credibility collapse and trust in US government
[07:00–08:46] – Trump’s press interactions; contradictory claims about negotiations and outcomes; reporters’ pushback

Tone and Final Thoughts

Richardson narrates with her trademark clear-eyed skepticism, highlighting the shifting sands of power, narrative, and trust in both government and media. The episode’s tone is urgent, deeply concerned with the consequences of a “post-truth” environment on democracy, diplomacy, and economic stability.

Summary Takeaway:
The episode compellingly illustrates the chaos and confusion wrought by unreliable official communications, suggesting that understanding not just what happens but who we choose to believe is pivotal for engaged, informed citizenship. “What News Do We Trust?” asks listeners to be discerning, to question—and to recognize just how consequential the answers are.

Transcript

A (0:00)

Foreign. 2026 shortly after the close of the US stock market on Friday, President Donald J. Trump appeared to try to address the losses it had sustained since his February 28 attack on Iran by posting that the war was winding down. This reassurance appeared designed to calm market fears over the weekend. But then at 7:44 Saturday morning, Trump posted, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first, thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump Aside from the fact that attacking civilian infrastructure is a war crime, this threat against Middle east oil infrastructure made the market teeter again, especially after Iran threatened to strike power plants in Israel and other Gulf states. Then at 7:23 this morning, Trump posted I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump the five day period in which Trump promised to hold off on this particular threat, the war itself continues, coincides with the days the stock market is open. According to the Kobisi letter, which analyzes the stock market, The S&P 500 surged upward by 240 points. The price of Brent crude oil dropped to $96 a barrel. Then Iran denied Trump's claims and said its leaders had had no direct or indirect contact with Trump's people. Iran's Foreign Ministry suggested Trump was trying to reduce energy prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans. It said that countries in the region had approached Iran to begin negotiations and that our response to all of them is we are not the party that started this war and all such requests should be directed to Washington. The S and P fell 120 points and the price of Brent crude rose to about $100 a barrel. What is happening here? Wrote Adam Cobasi about the stock market in his newsletter. The answer to which social media posters jumped was market manipulation. Economist Paul Krugman suggested the same in a post today, noting that someone who had insider knowledge could have sold A bunch of crude oil futures at very high prices. Brent was over $112 over the weekend, then bought them back immediately after Trump's announcement of triumphal progress but before the Iranians said that is not happening and you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit indeed by the end of the day. Reporters like Yoon Lee at CNBC noted that about 15 minutes before Trump's announcement there had been a sudden jump in S&P 500 futures and oil futures. Krugman had other observations as well. Though Trump threatened to commit a massive war crime by striking civilian energy facilities and must be looking for a way out, Krugman noted that there is no apparent reason for Iranian leaders to be making a deal right now. It seems pretty clear that protracting the war constitutes winning in the metric of humiliating the us. Krugman goes on to make a major point. Think about how much America's position in the world has been weakened not just by apparent failure to subdue a fourth rate power, but by the fact that everybody now knows that you cannot trust anything, cannot trust any promises the United States makes. You cannot count on the United States carrying through with promises, with threats. Not just promises, but threats are also incredible in the sense of not being all credible and that the default assumption should be that anything that this administration says is a lie. Trump doubled down on his post this morning when he talked to reporters at Palm Beach International Airport, seeming to see an off ramp from the conflict. He claimed that his Middle east envoy, Steve Witkoff, is speaking with a top person in Iran, the man who I believe is the most respected and the leader, not the supreme leader, but the people that seem to be running Iran. Barack Ravid of Axios later reported that Witkoff and Trump's son in law Jared Kushner, both freelancers who have financial ties to the Middle east rather than the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have sent messages to the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammed Bagr Golubov, through Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey, where intermediaries are trying to set up a call between U.S. and Iranian negotiators. Galobaf is a close associate of Iran's new Supreme Leader, Moktaba Khomeini. Trump seemed to consider that plan a done deal and said the U.S. and Iranian negotiators would talk today by phone. He continued, we'll at some point very soon meet. We're doing a five day period. We'll see how that goes and if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this. Otherwise we just Keep bombing our little hearts out. Kaitlin Collins of CNN asked Trump, you said there's many points of agreement with Iran right now. Can you give us a few of them? He answered, many, like 15 points. 15 points. Colin followed up that Iran has said yes to. Trump replied, well, they're not going to have a nuclear weapon. That's number one. That's number one. Two and three, they will never have a nuclear weapon. Collins asked, they've said yes to that. Trump replied, they've agreed to that. When another reporter asked if Iran has agreed to no enrichment whatsoever, even for medical purposes, civilian purposes, Trump answered, they have. Then Collins asked, what about the Strait of Hormuz? Who's going to be in control of that? Trump answered, that'll be opened very soon if this works. To questions of how soon, he responded immediately. Asked who would control the strait, he answered, it'll be jointly controlled. By who? Collins asked. Maybe me. Maybe me. Trump said, not the United States or an international coalition, but me and the ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is. And they'll also be a very serious form of regime change. Now, in all fairness, everybody's been killed from the regime, but we're dealing with some people that I find to be very reasonable, very solid. The people within know who they are, they're very respected, and maybe one of them will be exactly what we're looking for. Look at Venezuela, how well that's working out. We're doing so well in Venezuela with oil and with the relationship between the President Elect and us, and maybe we find someone like that in Iran. Today, at the Palm Beach Airport, a reporter asked Trump, if the war is ending, do you still need $200 billion? Trump answered, We. Ah, it's always nice to have. It's always nice to have. It's a very inflamed world.