← Live Wild with Remi Warren
Loading summary
Transcript1 lines
- [00:00]
A
Foreign. I'm Remy Warren and I've lived my life in the wild as a professional guide and hunter. I've spent thousands of days perfecting my craft. I want to give that knowledge to you. In this podcast we relive some of my past adventures as I give you practical hunting tips to make you more successful. Whether you're just getting started or a lifelong hunter, this podcast will bring you along on the hunt and teach you how to live wild. This podcast is brought to you by Mountain Tough and Yeti. Now for those that don't know, Mountain Tough is an online based training app that's designed for hunters to train you both mentally and physically for the mountains so you can go on. And there's programs designed with workouts that are specifically made to get you ready for the things you're going to encounter out there in the wild. And while a lot of you probably know that their programs are designed to get you ready, they also have programs designed to keep you ready during the season. It really is a year round process to help you be the best you can be on the hunt. If you're looking for a great gift this holiday season, Yeti has you covered with their Rambler drinkware. It's a leak fruit, stackable, ton of different colors and everything for drinking water, coffee, wine or beer. They even have shot glasses and flasks. They're great stocking stuffers and an awesome gift to give this holiday season. Welcome back to Live Wild Podcast everyone. Now this week is part two of our upcoming Hunt Prediction. So we're predicting what the 2026 season is going to look at based on a few factors. And this week we're diving into snowpack and water. We're going to look at what's gone on so far and some of the things to look at as spring and summer progresses. So we're going to use this information to help predict and maybe plan our season during this application phase and some of the tactics that we can take into the season as well. One of the other things that we're going to look at is the moon phase during critical times of the hunting season. And then we're going to look at maybe a few of the strategies and tactics for using your ONX maps for E Scouting based on these predictions of the conditions for the state by state analysis. So today we're diving into each state, looking at where their water levels are, snowpack levels, what that might mean for the future and how things might progress depending on if it stays drier or continues to get water. So let's dive in right now to the 2026 Western Big Game outlook and we'll look at some of the indicators we're using for this preseason prediction. So we're just going to kick it off now and look at our 2026 Western Big Game hunting outlook. We're using the best right now indicator. So these numbers have just been recently run and what we're looking at is snowpack and then water for the year. Precipitation, which might mean. Which would mean rain or sleet or whatever. So one of the things that we're going to be looking at over each state is the precipitation in two ways. Average snowpack and then precipitation. Now snowpack may or may not affect all the areas. So every area is a little bit different. More arid areas. There might not ever be any snowpack. But we're just going to look at it as an overview of each state. Maybe a couple of states will break down if things were different throughout the state. And then another thing we're going to layer on is that moon timing during that core fall season. So first I'm going to kind of go and give. We'll just do this big picture overview right now. For the most part, snowpack is almost low everywhere right now. It was a more what we're going to consider a mild winter. That isn't a bad thing. Okay, I'm just gonna preface that. That what we might be talking about today. You know, I think sometimes, often conditions get talked about and it's always in the. There's never good conditions. It's always too much winter, not enough winter, not enough snowpack, too average, not good. No, nothing excels. But what we're talking about today is we're gonna look at that snowpack and honestly it is low almost everywhere. This data is coming a lot from Snotel reports. It shows that there' snow water equivalent across most of the western states with a few exceptions in a few places. So that might be something that we're going to highlight. And this winter is really been described. I mean we've. If you aren't from the west, maybe you don't. It's harder to keep track of what's going on. I can just look out my door right now and go wow, we didn't have hardly any snow. My kids were playing with the hose outside in swimsuits a few weeks ago when they probably would have been sledding down the hill behind our house. Now things can change throughout the spring as well because some of this is. We're talking about where it Is right now. And things are going to change as the coming months come on. So right now, it's actually raining and starting to snow. It looks like I'm looking out the window and it's starting to snow right now where I'm at. So that's a good thing. We're getting some more snow packs and more. Some more water on the mountains and in the lower elevations. Rain or water, which is. Which is great. So that's what we're talking about. We're talking about the snowpack. And if you aren't familiar with it, it's been a pretty dry, mild, and warm winter. And this, the snowpack does matter in a lot of regions across the west. Because what that snow pack is, is that's the west's kind of slow release of water storage In a lot of these states. If you're. If, you know, one of the first things that I noticed when I went to other states that are. That are green all the time, and they get water throughout the summer, throughout the year. A lot of rain and a lot of rainfall. A lot of western states and a lot of the areas that we hunt big game Are actually probably more on the arid side. Most of the year, they get their water. Certain times a year, they rely on that snowpack. That snowpack fills up the springs, it fills up the creeks, it fills up reservoirs and ponds and tanks and other things. And then that water is utilized throughout most of the season. And as we get into more arid environments, maybe that's important. Maybe, maybe some environments rely more. Like the true southwest relies more on rainwater and monsoon season. But a lot of the places that we're going to be hunting mule deer and elk, Snowpack is a. Is a big indicator. Snowpack also kind of tells us how harsh the winter is when there's too much snow. That, especially at lower elevations, that can be pretty detrimental to populations because you get a lot of winter kill. So this year we have something going for us. It's a mild winter, but that mild winter can equate to problems down the road. So the second thing we're going to look at is water conditions. And this is a mixed bag here, because precipitation can be a good thing. Obviously, you need water. You need water throughout the year. You could get a wet winter with no snowpack. So it's not having storage, but it is creating winter feed, Good conditions throughout the winter. And maybe some of these areas might actually be able to hold some of that water. It might get into aquifers. It might be held in ponds and other areas that are normally dry. So there can be some water storage based off of that as well. So several states what we're gonna see have near or above average water year to date for precipitation, but still a low snowpack. And that is kind of that classic warm weather snow drought pattern that we're going to see across a lot of states. So some states we're going to, we're going to see, we're going to talk about the snowpack and then we're also going to talk about the precipitation. Severe droughts happen when precipitation is low and snowpack is low. But in some places maybe like we'll look at a couple of states and we're going to go state by state to really break this down. We'll see that hey, the precipitation's been pretty high which helps in those arid environments that don't necessarily rely on snowpack anyways. But we aren't in the antler growing season. So we're going to have some good body condition and things coming out of winter. And we're going to be. Some of the factors that we're going to look for going into, through application season and going into the season is is this water pattern going to continue? Are we still going to get water? Are we going to maybe increase the snowpack level? This could actually end up to be a really good year. There's a lot of factors that might be involved but we're going to see how it's going to shake out. So what winter usually means for fall hunting is winter. Like what this winter means is winter kill lot lower than average. I would say in most places not as brutal with the cold deep snow. So we're going to see really decent carryover in numbers. And I guess about three, four years ago we were hit hard with some, some hard winter and numbers declined. This is really good. We've had three mild winters in a row plus this year. So that's really good for increasing populations and future fawn recruitment going forward. Antler and horn growth plus body condition, that really depends on that. April June moisture. So with low snowpack we're leaning toward earlier green up. And that's, that's not bad. So that summer range will green up a little bit earlier. But what that does mean is it's an earlier dry down unless the spring turns wet. So what happens is we have early green up, they come in out of winter good condition. But during the entire antler growing season it starts, things start to dry out less food source. And what that pretty much directly translates into Antler growth or lack thereof. So you can see that in arid environments, especially where on a good water year we're talking 20% difference, you might be in an area that if it's in a drought season, you might see an animal that is in the 150 class. And when it's a good wet year, that might be a 160plus type animal. So now you translate that to a buck that might be holding it, a 170 and now he's a 184. Because as far as like score for mule deer or something like that because of that water or maybe even bigger. So when you've got good water mixed with those good populations, that's, that's kind of the formula for a really quality hunt. Now the other thing that we're going to kind of focus on is that water driven behavior. So if the summer stays hot and we what we're going to expect is stronger concentrations around reliable water, perennial springs, irrigated ag, high elevation seeps, north face pockets, things that generally when everything else dries up might be better for holding water. So we might see that behavior toward the hunting season start concentrating animals there. And then in the other factor that we talked about last week is low snowpack. Earlier drying increases that odds of earlier and longer fire seasons, which can really reshape access, animal distribution, things like that. You might have a tag in an area that's under fire restriction. I've had that happen multiple times where hey, I got this tag or I cashed in my points for a tag and I can only hunt a week of the season. Maybe it's a three week, four week season because it's been closed for fire, for fire crews. The area is closed, the forest might be closed. There's a bunch of restrictions and even if you could hunt it, the hunting would be pretty poor because of visibility and things like that. So that's something that we're gonna look at. Now the other thing that we're gonna look at during this is those full moon timing. So the full moon during these core western big game hunt windows, we're going to go August, September, October, November. So August, the full moon hits on August 28th toward the end of August. This I'm just going to go through and analyze each one of these moons. I don't know if this is like this is probably the better time for that full moon. I guess there's a couple of ways you can look at it. There's a lot of different seasons. There's not that many seasons in August But a couple of them, this strike would be some limited entry elk tags in, like, Nevada and probably Utah for archery, because those. Those seasons start in August and end kind of early in September. There are a few August mule deer seasons. Some start earlier, some start later. So for those early mule deer seasons that start later, this, it kind of is late enough that it might be okay. So really, I kind of see this as a full moon just before September. One of the things that this could do is weather dependent. If we get kind of a cold snap toward that end of August or an abnormally wet or cold August, what we might see is this full moon might actually kick off the rut earlier. So in some ways it could be beneficial to upcoming seasons, like September, elk seasons, things like that. In some ways, it could be detrimental to those seasons, making it more difficult. I'm kind of considering a couple of things. I've got points in Utah and points in Nevada where I might draw one of these highly coveted elk tags. I would probably rather have the full moon earlier in mid August and not around and no moon in that first part of September when that archery season or tag that I'm looking for is going to be good. But on the flip side, I can maybe roll the dice and say, hey, with a little bit of weather dependency, this might actually kick off the rut a little bit stronger for catching that tail end part of that season. That's early September. So that's something to think about. Now, when we look at September, September 26th is going to be our full moon. So going, it's growing, going up to that and decreasing following that. September 26th is kind of in that I do find that that later rut season tends to be, I don't know, often more activity. It's not the worst it could be, in my opinion, and it's not the best timing. Some years I feel like it's better when it's early in September and then, no, no moon, maybe a little bit later in September. But it's also not bad. I think it's kind of a coin flip and it could be decent for a few other hunts coming up. So it depends really on your hunt. So I guess one of the things that we probably should do too is talk about the time frames where there's no moon within each of these months, these months. So August, our new moon, is going to be the 12th, which, looking at a few early deer seasons, this could be ideal for that opening part of the season. September 11th hits that no moon. So right in that kind of around that second week of November. Just before that second week, or sorry, second week of September. First. Second week of September. So after the first week before the full second week, you know, I. I feel like the seasons where it's a little bit later than that is good. But with the right weather, it might be beneficial for those earlier season hunts. So that's something to think about. Now we also have no moon beginning of October, like October 10th. So September 26th, we got a full moon. October 10th, we have no moon. This could be good for some of those over the counter type mule deer tags, especially if we get good weather, because those earlier October season dates with no moon might help that out. Now we've got a new like a full moon in October, October 26th. I think that that's going to kind of hurt some of the best timing of those general mule deer seasons. The reason being is as we get closer to November, we start to see more rut activity. If we've got a full moon later in October, it means that those deer are probably moving at night. Now if you mix that with warm conditions, those general deer seasons are going to be even tougher. Throw in some good weather, weather can be the breaker. Right. I think that weather trumps in many cases whatever that moon phase is doing and might even get deer moving easier. You get a lot of snow late in October this year. Again, it seemed like the only snow we got was late October this year. So it wasn't terrible. And it was very similar kind of conditions to this. So cloudy at night, snow on the ground, maybe get that rut started. Could be okay for some of those general area mule deer seasons. But I think that that earlier no moon could. I don't know, I think that the moon phase right now for mule deer and in a lot of general season is going to be a little rough. Now going into that first part of November, like I said, there is no moon November 9th, like the beginning part of November, which if you've got a season that bumps into that November timeframe and that's like the last week of that season, that's an ideal timeframe for that. There are some general seasons where, hey, it bumps into that first week in November and that can be a good time to chase deer, Especially if that you get some weather, that full moon kicks it off toward the end of August, you've got some time to hunt. We're going into that new moon phase. I think that that's an excellent time to utilize, maybe potentially an easier to draw tag because if it bumps into that beginning part of November. That could be a strategy we start to chase. Looking at November. The beginning of November is the no moon and the full moon's toward the end of November. If we're targeting let's say migration seasons and things like that. I don't necessarily think that that late November time frame for elk with the full moon it's going to make too much of a difference. It's just more weather dependent. Now where it is going to make a difference more is probably rut fueled hunts like in areas where the deer hunt rut later. I really think it's probably going to affect probably like whitetail hunters other places outside of the west more than it probably affects some western big game seasons. To be honest, we've got no moon that week of November. Like it's actually on the New Moon's on November 9th. So that first part of November it could be good for that rut phase. Later on in November we might get some full moon action. But we as we push into later November, honestly throughout the west traditionally we get some more weather then so it might not be bad. It might be seem a little slower depending on the weather. But I don't think that that's. That's the worst option unless you're maybe you know stand hunting white teals in. In thicker country and your area seems to peak toward the end of November and end of November seems to be some of the best hunting. But I don't know, it's not. I feel like some years is worse than this as far as the timing. So it's not, it's not awful. So that I think like just in recap, that late full moon in August can impact those early archery elk patterns, more nighttime travel. But it could possibly kick off that earlier rut activity with weather. So with weather we might see that earlier rut activity. If I was to so many times like there's so much subjectivity to a lot of this. I'm just going off of thousands of days in the field and what I tend to notice if I were to guess when the rut was going to hit like be earlier or later for elk this year I might put my eggs in the like earlier basket. I don't know why last year I felt a little later and I think that it's just going to be weather dependent. I really think that weather is going to be the big factor for the rut this year. So I just think it's a little too early to guess on that. But I really want to see what the Spring brings and then as we get closer to that, maybe I can have a better estimation. The other thing that I'm going to notice is when these deer, elk are going to go hard horned. I think that if we have, if it continues to be wet, we're going to see really good antler growth. We might even see velvet start to strip a little bit earlier and then that's going to kick that rut in a little bit sooner. So we'll see how that goes. Now that late September full moon, it does land in that prime rut window in a lot of places, meaning that there's more night movement, more night bugling. But if you get into those areas where you're focused on those bedding to feeding areas, those north faces, if they're making noise and maybe they're a little more concentrated to water, this might be interesting and possibly not terrible timing. And then late October full moon, it just overlaps a lot of rifle deer and elk seasons. You're going to expect more of that feeding after dark. Better odds of your. One thing with that is sometimes you get that midday movement in the security of COVID And if you've got those open basins where you can glass into that, you can utilize that strategy. It probably will make some tough general mule deer seasons and maybe some opening elk weeks a little tough depending on state timing. But it might, if you've got a tag that spills over into November, increase the odds of having a good hunt as we start to move into November. Then that late November full moon that's really, in that late rifle migration hunt, we're just going to say those, those tactics are going to be glassing first and last light. It might make it a little harder to pick things up. So we're going to focus on that thermal cover, places that are holding heat near feed, and then focus on transition corridors. Weather's just going to really be the deciding factor on that November hunt. And it's probably going to hurt whitetail hunters more than other seasons potentially kicking off the rut based on that October timing. So I think that's going to be really weather dependent this year. Now, before we get into our state by state breakdown, one of the things I want to talk about a great supporter of this podcast, awesome supporter of the hunting community in general. Montana Knife company. They have a ton of great knives in stock right now, including their Speedgoat, Mini Speedgoat and Blackfoot. Those are their core knives. Like that's what the company was built on. I was just at the Western Hunt Expo and got to see the knives that they had on stock there and just talking with them as well. They're just about to. Well, they're in the process of moving into their new facility. The whole transition's about over and they're really excited about being able to get a lot more knives in stock regularly. So if you're familiar with the company, a lot of their knives have been off of drops. But if you go on their website right now, before the hunting season starts to kick off in this kind of planning and prepping stage, this might be the best time to pick up a knife. They have a lot of their classic and most sought after knives available online right now. And then also if you aren't on their mailing list, you absolutely have to do it because it informs you of the drops when those new knives and those new drops come out. That's all based off of their mailing list. So if you, if there's a knife that you're like, I'm looking for this particular one, I don't see it on there. Make sure you're on that mailing list. Montanaknifecompany.com get on their mailing list, pay attention to those drops for a knife that might not be on there, but honestly, scroll around, browse around, because you might find the knife that you're looking for available right now. So now what we're going to do is we're going to do our state by state breakdown. I'm just going to go through each western state, we're going to look at their snow water equivalent, we're going to look at the precipitation they received. I'm going to kind of give you a read and my take on that particular state based off of the water. Some things to look at maybe as we go into the application, some things to pay attention to and maybe show you. I don't really think that there's clear winners or losers, but there's a few places that weren't as affected as much as other places. So we're going to dive into that right now. A lot of this I've got like a bunch of different data from Snotel and just kind of compiled a bunch of different data here. So we're going to run through it. This is I guess from February 10th, but this podcast will actually air a little bit later. So some of these numbers might be a little bit different if you jump on and start to do a little bit of research in there. Well, so one of the things you can do actually in your Onyx app If you have the elite membership, you can actually go in and select in. I'm just going to do it right now. Hunt layers, I can go to drought data and it'll actually pull up areas of drought and tell you how if it's moderate, high, low. And this is really great intel, especially for some of the more southwest and arid units, but also over mountain areas and other places that you might hunt, it'll tell you it kind of just gives you a range of abnormally dry, moderate drought. And when you look over this, it's funny because you'll even see some small areas of extreme drought surrounded by areas where it was moderate or not that severe. So it's pretty interesting data. When you pull this up, it's abnormally dry in a lot of places. And then there's other areas where it's, it's not as bad. And this is updated continually. So it's a great tool as you go through your scouting to say, okay, what's the water precipitation look like over the year over equivalents, over averages? What are we looking at? What can we decipher from this? And then we're going to be able to later on start to build out our hunt tactics based on what we're learning with these, with this information. So right now we're doing a big overview of what it might look like and then some of those hunt implications and some of the risks as we go into the season, as we start to plan, because we're coming up on deadlines for tag draws, a lot of this stuff, we're going to have to start thinking about where do we want to apply, where do we want to think about trying to hunt and how do we want to build our hunt strategy and what are things we can look at as the season progresses forward that might kind of lend itself either positive or negative. Either way, we can start to build our hunt strategy based on that. So we're going to dive in. We're going to go state number one. Right now we're going to look at Washington, the snow water equivalent. The snowpack in Washington is about 51%, so half of what it normally is. That's a very dry winter. However, the precipitation, we're at 111%, so plenty of moisture has fallen, but not a lot of snow. In some of the more arid places that might actually equate to normal and or held water. In places that maybe never have snowpack. In places that are generally reliant on that snowpack in that big summer range, things are going to dry out. A little bit quicker. So if the spring stays warm, we're going to really expect that drying of lower elevation feed. And consider that higher, wetter timber bands during the elk season is kind of going to be the thing that we're going to want to focus on. That higher elevation where the trees are and it's blocking out of a lot of that sun is going to hold water better as opposed to any faces that are going to dry out a lot sooner. Now remember that this can change, but that's what we're dealing with right now. A couple of the risks that we're going to encounter with this compared to a deep snow year is it's going to be more likely to smoke closures and fire closures. I'm not extremely familiar with a lot of the places in Washington. However, I do know there is a lot of timber company land and I also know that a lot of that timber company land can be closed during extreme fire danger. They're trying to protect their investment is probably an insurance and other things. So some areas may risk being closed if we don't see that water continuing on throughout the summer or spring. So that's something to pay attention to. We're now we're going to move I guess south to Oregon. Right now Oregon has been hit pretty hard and I would say it's one of the roughest snow pictures right now in the West. We're at 30% snowpack and only 85% precipitation. While other states are getting hammered by rain. Still, Oregon is below average on rain and well below average on snowpack. This means that we're going to be looking at, if you, if you got an archery season, very water driven archery season, probably not great antler growth in a lot of areas focusing on springs and seeps and riparian strings that springs that are year round and reliant on, I don't know, have good water. Maybe concentrating animals to larger water sources. And it might even if we get a late hot summer, earlier migration pressure moving them out of that high country and pushing them into areas where they can get into water. Other things might be some of those animals might actually stay up a little bit higher if there is, you know, if those springs are running. But what, what I tend to see on those low snowpack years is up high on the mountain the springs dry up. And at those lower elev, wherever that aquifer kind of whatever seeped into the mountain starts to pop back out. So it actually drives them out of that high country a little bit sooner. Even if there's maybe a little bit longer green up in there and pushes them into other areas. It condenses and pushes animals together. It can be beneficial on some hunts in some areas for scouting and other things targeting water, like consistent water sources, limiting the water sources, you know, increases the animal concentration. But right now I would say unfortunately not that you can't have a great hunt in any of these places. Just based on this snow info and water year, Oregon's struggling right now also. This is gonna put everything on high alert. Depending on how things play out for fire season, access could be a major storyline within the hunts coming up for Oregon, California. This one's interesting because we're just going a little bit further south and it's weird because like a couple of major systems just seem to have missed Oregon, California's Snowpack is at 57% and right now we're getting a lot of snow right now in the Sierras where I'm at in Nevada. So I'm sure like northern California and some other place are probably receiving some snowpack from this current storm. Precipitation was pretty good. It was 100%. It's just that similar theme. Moisture is closer to normal, storage is low. So if we don't get spring storms to rebuild that snowpack, we're going to expect kind of patchy summer water, more compressed distribution in the drier zones and probably better water holding in the higher north slopes. And then creek fed country stuff where there's creeks that generally run over the distance. Maybe that creek will dry up in certain places and the water will pop out in those places. But it might pull animals into those particular areas. I think this is one to watch because what we have been seeing lately is later, almost like a later winter, a lot of moisture in the spring. And that's been building some really great seasons. I feel like last year in a couple of different places across the west, while some places were dry, other places really benefited. And so we're going to go over to a state that probably a lot of people have already started to plan on because most of the general tags are gone there. We're going to look at Idaho now. Idaho is very interesting because it was kind of split. That part that's up higher toward like a little bit further north is different than what happened in the south. Idaho is a very interesting case this year because let's say north of salmon like that panhandle region, if you take like the, the skinny part that goes up, they're at about 55% snowpack, 100% precipitation. So got Water great. Didn't get a lot of holding snow. Not so great. But I mean, in the scheme of things, some years these numbers look bad for both. So we got water. It just wasn't in the form of snow. South Idaho is quite a bit different because it actually has 76% average snowpack. That's. That's close enough to normal that I would say pretty decent. And then 100% precipitation. So much better than a lot of the west, especially south of that salmon area. Or the. I guess would be that like the 45th parallel, I think something like that. So below that 45th parallel, pretty ideal conditions, really. That's just a good chance of. They've had some milder winters. Solid animal numbers. We're really going to want to watch that late summer water now. The tactical edge that we might be looking at, we're going to look at those perennial springs travel in those higher elevations. I'm expecting more consistent hunt tactics of what's been working animals holding in higher areas longer. I just think that with the way that their season dates run, you know, maybe some of those moon phases might be more of a consideration than probably precipitation and drought this year in Idaho. Montana is probably one of the. I guess we got two standout states here. Montana really is a shining star in what's happened. It seems like it's been a light winter a lot of places, but when you look at the snow equivalent, they're at 85% through an average in most of the states. It's kind of one of those things you'll want to pull out and look at each area individually. As we're talking about the states, we're talking about the state as a whole. So you might be in an area and going like, we got no snow, but somewhere else did. And so a lot of this, you really have to, once you've figured out where you're going, look at some of the data for that mountain range and for that particular area. But almost 120% precipitation, really mild winter per se, as far as no extreme cold. It's got, you know, pretty decent water in a lot of areas. And water is going to be that whole story for that early season. I think that we would just call this, like, actually a pretty good season. And they've been building on this for a few seasons, which is helping to hopefully rebuild some populations. I know that there's a lot of things going on. Eastern Montana mule deer, and that's the thing like western Montana and sort of the mountain stuff where there is water that's holding in the mountains is doing a lot better than some of that more arid stuff where it's getting more drought, things are drying up and then you're running in the risk of CWD concentrations EHD on deer. A harsh winter a few years ago, things not looking great. So I think that things could shape up. They did drop few tag numbers for deer in Montana. So getting a tag could be a lot more difficult. But I think that there's. There's probably some good things that are going to happen in certain units. I think that there's certain units that are going to have some really good antler growth. I think there's certain units that populations are going to start rebounding. I think there's some good units that are being do pretty good for elk and deer. And that's just kind of my two cents. New Mexico, it's not ideal, It's a more arid area. But the thing about New Mexico to some real high elevation mountain ranges, right? Snow water equivalent 35% precipitation, 72% low storage, low moisture, pretty dry year. Higher odds of that. Dry feed, reduced antler growth in some units if the spring stays dry. Now if arid places all about that spring water. So strong water concentration, if we get some strong water concentration or sorry, strong water in the spring, we won't have that heavy water concentration. On the hunting side, if animals are concentrated more on water, it actually allows you to kind of pinpoint where they might be and maybe do better or more efficient scouting and or hunting because the animals might be a little more concentrated. Not ideal, but it is an option. So I think that that's going to be one where looking at what happens this spring is going to be huge. And then fire risk obviously like everywhere else, if it stays dry, could have a lot of fire risk. Wyoming similar to Montana in 84% snow water equivalent, 100% precipitation, relatively healthy. Compared to other states, I think that that's decent odds for good summer range if that spring cooperates. Migration timing. I think this year is going to be more normal than other states around it. If we're looking at like Colorado, Utah, some of that Four Corners area, Wyoming is going to be the winner here. I just think that things are going to be more normal there than they have been other places. A couple of notes that I will make on that moon phase. You know, I think that with that late October, you're going to see maybe more nocturnal patterns, deer focusing on security and maybe whatever. But based on their season dates of some of their hunts in that moon phase, that Might mess a few things up, but I think overall Wyoming's probably getting. If we were to do a star system, Wyoming and Montana probably got the best star system for mild winter. Average snowpack, good precipitation, not bad for population growth and potential antler growth. I think we're going to see probably some good deer start coming back out of some of the good areas. But I also think that it's a little ways from rebounding to being great. I think that after you have a harsh winter, sometimes it provides really good feed and populations start to rebound fairly quickly. You have a massive die off. But then you have a few mild winters in a row and things start to multiply, multiply, multiply. And then you get. Now we just need age class with that good antler growth and precipitation and we'll start to see some really good things in the future. Me personally, I'm like, I'm debating whether to cash in some points or roll the dice a couple more years and maybe try to hit it in another peak. I don't really know what I'm going to do because you never know what next year is going to bring. So something to think about. Nevada. Nevada's snowpack pretty low precipitation saying about 93%. So snowpack about 40% precipitation, 90% low storage. And it's desert states that really feel the drought conditions the fastest. Also, desert states are most, I guess in tune with with drought conditions. So hard water concentrations is going to be your hunt implication for this. For both elk and deer where that's applicable. Potentially earlier season patterning around water sources can be helpful. We're going to run that higher risk of heat water stress, so animal distribution might be tighter. And then fire, higher fire danger. One of the things that we might see though is this is. I think it's a little too early to tell on some of it because that spring water is really going to be the difference maker here. Utah is kind of in the same boat actually. Better snowpack. So below average on snowpack, 49% precipitation, 87%. With the snowpack here being a bigger concern. They have really high populations compared to maybe Nevada like you could have. I feel like the. Especially when it comes like mule ear and elk probably definitely higher populations in Utah because it's just a little bit better habitat. But there's a lot of summer range there that's utilized by a lot more animals. So snowpack's really important there because it needs to kind of start to melt off. Keep that water continue greening up throughout the growing season. Animals that are in those transitional mountain ranges where they. They are up in the summer range and then they move to the winter range. As long as it has snowpack that some range is going to continue to be green. You're going to get good antler growth waters around. Everything's gravy. When you don't have that snowpack that dries off sooner, they start to move earlier and things start to get a little scrambled because of that. So this is one of those things. I feel like Utah is more snowpack reliant than a lot of other states. I think actually Wyoming is pretty snowpack reliant because really migratory higher populations than other places. So I think that snowpack like Utah, Wyoming's doing great for snowpack. Not really concerned about it as much Utah a little more concerned about Colorado Snowpack. We're at 50% precipitation, 76% as kind of a. It's a very concerning combo for Colorado as well because low snow, low precipitation, not holding. Colorado's an area where a lot of the success of the season relies on that. That snowpack and the way that things kind of turn out there. So this is going to be one that we want to look for those late spring snow to hold over or all this can be for not if we have just a really wet late spring early summer. Some of this stuff like might look one way but. But it's too early to decide because we don't know what's going to happen. The way it looks right now though, I mean there is that earlier range stress those. Those high elevations. You know, Colorado does have really high elevation areas that deer live in. And sometimes those elevations will hold snow longer than other places across the west. Then place to get snow packed but it's at a lower elevation, tends to burn off faster. So that's one of the things that could help Colorado in my opinion. But then you might see that more pronounced water bottlenecks. And then we also want to just watch that winter range carryover if the drought expands. So I think that it's just one of the places that paying a little bit of attention to. It's not in a terrible position in my opinion. It's in a position that could be. Could be good. Could. Could be for not. But I think it's just going to depend on this. This coming spring when it comes to hunting strategy. If it remains a dry year, I think focusing on those north facing benches, focusing on timbered areas in those migration corridors, maybe finding animals, it's gonna. It's kind. It's weird because you can say two things and also be right. One, it might actually hold animals higher longer or it might drive them lower sooner. And it just depends on how it dries out. Honestly, how the weather goes into summer, what kind of summer we have, how fast that snowpack burns. Some years you have cloudy, you have a little bit of precipitation. The summer range stays green for a long time and it's great. It's not even affected. Other years it dries out sooner and then they're forced into more timbered areas that hold moisture better and might even have little pockets of feed and other things. So I think that if it's dry, we're going to just focus on those dark wet areas over big open areas in places like Colorado now Arizona, very water dependent snow. Water equivalent isn't necessarily like snowpack is important in some places, not everywhere. 18% snowpack, 94% precipitation, low storage. But I don't know. I think that more for Arizona really depends on antler growth. And that antler growth is really going to depend on what the spring brings. I personally put in some points for trying to cash in on a late elk tag later. Archery elk tag this year. So we'll see. I kind of went in knowing that precipitation is. I think it's fine for right now, I guess. I mean it's probably drier. But I'm really just kind of banking on seeing what the spring brings and maybe using my point guard to turn back a tag if it doesn't end up being what I want. I'd like to have a decent tag with good antler growth because then I'm just. I'm utilizing that tag in a way where I might have better opportunity. Fire a higher end bull. They might be the same exact bull that just didn't grow as good because of water. So I'm probably going to just hope that I can cash in that tag on the water. I'm kind of banking on honestly a wet spring. I don't know why I feel it. We'll see what happens. But that's just the house. It seems like it's been a wet winter down there per se. So I'm kind of hoping that get some good wet spring and see what that whole story unfolds. And then the last state we're going to look at, the last western state we're going to look at is New Mexico. I would say New Mexico is in a little bit different position than Arizona. A lot less precipitation, 72% snowpack, 35%. There are a lot of areas in New Mexico close to the Colorado border that rely on that snowpack. It's that low storage, low moisture. I think there's that higher odds of dry feed and reduced antler expression. And I think it's one of those places that the spring is real telling in the dry areas. I think it's also very regionally specific. So there's so many varying types of terrain that depend on different things. So I think that it's more dependent on maybe what happens in the spring. And also looking at it maybe unit by unit, mountain range per mountain range basis, as we get a little bit further along, I do think that fire danger is going to definitely be elevated. And I think that that's going to be something that we're going to have to think about throughout all the western states this year. So in practical terms, 2026 is so far a dry year and we're gonna see what the spring does. But we can pull out some of the dry year playbook, which works across the state. So it's going to be tagging important things. One of the things that I stress about on this podcast all the time is finding the thing that's in lease supply. If it's a drier year, water is going to be that thing. We're going to focus on water. We're going to confirm those perennial versus seasonal. And if you can get some time scouting, get in the unit in late August, in the summertime, see what that summer range is looking at like, see what the water conditions actually are where you're hunting and that might help you out. Also, if it's an area where you can scout around that water, you can maybe focus on that a little bit better and we can see what this spring does as far as antler growth. I think during the hunt, when it comes to the full moon or maybe even drought, you know, we're going to hunt security areas during those full moons. They're going to feed a little bit later, maybe travel more at night. So we're going to be winning by covering shade transition areas, especially early in the season. And one of the things that we're going to have to think about is how did that summer range dry out? What is the, the composition of the area that we're hunting? Is it an arid area, is it a low lying area, is it a mountain area? Is it drying out earlier, driving animals into those wetter regions of that area places? If it continues to stay dry and that summer forage dries up quick, then we're going to start seeing animals pushing into thicker, darker country earlier. So that's something to think about throughout our hunt plan. And then I think that this year as we get into summer, we're really going to know, but we're probably going to have to have a smoke plan, a fire plan, pick a couple of different backup areas, different elevations and aspects, and maybe some alternate access routes. It's going to be something we're going to want to pay attention to. I have the fire maps and everything always turned on on my Onyx as I'm scouting, because sometimes you aren't in an area, especially if I'm scouting later on for the season. One of the features that I really like about Onyx is current wildfires and then the wildfire later layer. I might there might be a fire that I don't know about my unit. So I keep it on. I'm continually scouting. If a new fire pops up, it's on my Onyx app, so I immediately know that it's there and then I can see the size of it and other things. It keeps me apprised to the information in that unit without getting news about that unit or actually living in that unit. And that comes in very handy and helps me kind of form areas that I might look for. Maybe that's somewhere I want to. If it's early fire and gets put out, maybe that's somewhere I want to look. Hunting the fringes of that, maybe it's somewhere that I want to avoid. Maybe I need to find a completely different part of the unit to hunt because as I get closer to the season, maybe that affects me. Maybe I've got a later season hunting there, but I just need to know what's going on during the summer and the kind of fire and activity that might be encountered during that season. So having my Onyx app, where I'm going to be scouting throughout the year, having those layers on helps let me know when a fire is going on. And that, honestly part of the app has saved me on a few hunts where I'm going, I'm doing some scouting and boom, fire pops up in there that I wouldn't have known about otherwise and can kind of help me adjust my plans accordingly for when that hunt comes into play. So I'm going to break it down into my overall prediction for this year. I really think that there's a few states and maybe even some. I think that if this kind of thing is just a little bit anecdotal and fun to do, but what you're going to see, in my opinion, is there's going to be a few places that come out big winners this year and have benefited from this milder winter. I think that there's also going to be some micro areas that actually within states that look like it was bad end up being really good. Or there's going to be some surprise big buck, big bulls come out of areas that you're like, ah, it was a kind of a bad water year. And yet some stuff's going to pop up that is pretty impressive. And I, and I truly believe that. I think that we're going to see good success with just a few outstanding animals and like a lot of good animals in certain states as well. I think that one or two similar years with maybe a little bit better snowpack and then wet springs, we're going to see a real boom in the future if we can continue this kind of mild winter pattern. I don't think that mild winters are bad. I do think that they can lead to bad things. But we just become more reliant on wet and cold springs or just wet springs and, or wet summers. So we kind of go shifting our focus from the importance of snowpack, which is very important. But I do think that there's other things that can recover us from that. And I don't think that having necessarily a mild winter is always a bad thing. In some cases it can be a good thing. I think that we'll see a few populations kind of start to rebound. I think that we might see, depending on what the springs look like. I feel like sometimes the migrations have been off a little bit because of weather patterns and other things. So I think we might see if we start to see a return to some more normal winters and some mild but normal snow packs, we can maybe start to see things improve. I guess would be my guess. I think to go from good to exceptional is just going to be relying on what the next five months really looks like. I think it'll be okay, but I think like, there is that potential for things to go really good. So in some areas you might like, it might be too early to tell. And it might be worth. Hey, I'm kind of betting on what, like am I going to bet that it's going to be wet this spring or not? And that bet could pay off because you might be on the side of getting the tag when other people held back and it turned out to be pretty good. And you're, you're in the money with maybe less points and have a great hunt with great antler growth in certain more arid environments that could be the case, could be the opposite, could be left high and dry. You'll still have a tag in your pocket and can still turn up good animals. But I think time's going to tell for that. I think also a lot of the season based on the moon phase is going to be weather dependent. If things hit right, we might see great earlier rut action based on the moon cycles this year, with the right weather, that could happen and people that planned those earlier hunts might be right in the money. I also think that it could be the opposite. Could stay hot, the prime times could be lit up during the night, a lot of nighttime red action, and it could be slow. It's at this point a coin flip and I'm putting the bet on the what the weather's going to be as opposed to the moon cycle. I think the, the weather this year is going to be more important than whatever that moon cycle might be. I wouldn't be afraid to plan a hunt if it happens to be in that full moon time frame, but just when the season is. I would also think about, I mean, this year, if it's between two places, maybe maybe plan on the time when there's, I guess, no moon. If you aren't thinking that the weather is going to hit. Right. So there is some variables there. A lot of general seasons might not benefit, but some certain seasons might benefit from where the moon lands this year. And then there's just a lot of variables. But I think using some of this knowledge, making plans for those worst case scenarios and hunting hard and being prepared, the people that do that are going to benefit. Thank you guys so much for tuning into the podcast. It's always fun to just try to predict what might happen. It's one of those where you can be. It's like I feel like doing this podcast, you're kind of like the weatherman. You don't have to be right all the time, but if you're right some of the time, great. We'll see what happens. I think that it really just comes down to paying attention to these things, seeing what's going to continue to happen and making plans no matter what. One of the things that I stress when I talk to people or this podcast is over the years, like through guiding, through other things. I generally spend time in the over every year, every season. When I was guiding full time, I was in the field every week of the season, every year for, I don't know, 20 years. Right. And over those years, our success was pretty consistent. You had weeks that were a Little bit harder. You had weeks that were easier, you had years that were harder, years that were easier. But really it boils down to figuring out how to hunt those animals based on the conditions, make those plans, make those adjustments and go with the flow. And by doing that, you're gonna start to see consistency no matter what the conditions. Some weeks you just have to dig deeper and that's just how it is some years. So I don't necessarily know if in my opinion this is a dig deeper year. I think this is a year that's in between yee haw first day stuff and digging super deep. I think it's just gonna be very hunt dependent and way more dependent on the weather during the season this year than maybe some other years. So that's, that's my overall prediction. I think one of the things that I am thinking about this year though is really focusing on that planning aspect. That means that I'm going to be in my Onyx maps way more than normal. I'm going to be diving into a lot of the analysis of when the season dates fall this year and I'm going to be cautious. And I think that like planned and prepared this year should be the theme. If you plan and prepare, I think you're gonna find some great hunts and maybe some really good action. And then I think those that are maybe under prepared are going to find moderate action to potentially having to dig a little deeper. So it can be a combination, all those things. One thing that I do want to mention, Onyx, an incredible supporter of this podcast. Like I said, I'm going to be talking about a lot of planning and stuff through that app and through their system because there's so many awesome little features that you can utilize this time of year. And as we get closer to the season, keeping track of some of these things like precipitation, drought, fire, turning on certain layers. When we talk about thermal cover, slope angle hunt, planning, focusing on water, e scouting, there's going to be a lot of that tactical stuff coming up. So if you don't have a subscription, now's a good time to get it so you can get it through the whole year. You can always use code LIVEWILD. You'll get, I think 20% off. And if you, if you already like you can't do use that code through the app. So you have to use it on their website. So use code livewild, you'll get a discount. You can use it on Elite membership, whatever membership you want. And then that Elite membership allows you to look at multiple states and allows you access, I think, to a few different features. But that's the one that I use. So I think it's, it's extremely beneficial. And we are going to be talking quite a bit about some of the strategies utilizing that app because it is the most prevalent and the most useful tool out there for pre planning and pre scouting an area without getting your until you get your boots on the ground. So we're going to look at that, think about using that if you don't already have that. And until next week, I'm just going to say keep them guessing. We'll catch you guys later. It.