Live Wild with Remi Warren

Ep. 223 | 2026 Season Outlook Pt. 2 - State by State Breakdown
Date: February 19, 2026
Host: Remi Warren

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Remi Warren's predictions for the 2026 Western big game hunting season, focusing particularly on the state-by-state outlook for snowpack, precipitation, and how these factors—combined with moon phases and potential fire risk—may influence hunting tactics and success. Remi also shares nuanced strategies, explains weather implications for hunters, and emphasizes the importance of preparation and e-scouting. If you're planning tags or prepping to hunt the West this year, this ambitious, data-rich breakdown is essential listening.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Picture: Western Weather Trends and 2026 Hunting Outlook (04:10 – 17:40)

• Low Snowpack, Mixed Precipitation:
  • "Snowpack is almost low everywhere right now. It was a more… mild winter. That isn't a bad thing." (05:55)
  • Precipitation is average or above in some states, but storage from snow is low.
  • Western states depend on snowpack for a "slow release" of water into the ecosystem, feeding springs, creeks, reservoirs throughout the hunting season.
• Implications for Herds:
  • "We've had three mild winters in a row plus this year. So that's really good for increasing populations and future fawn recruitment" (13:05).
  • Low snow = low winter kill = higher carryover and potential for robust populations.
• Key Factor: Spring Moisture:
  • Actual antler growth and long-term forage depend most on "April–June moisture." Early green-up might mean early dry-down unless spring turns wet.
  • "On a good water year we’re talking 20% difference… If it’s in a drought season, you might see an animal that’s 150 [inches], and on a wet year that might be a 160-plus type animal." (15:30)

2. Hunting Implications: Water, Fire, Moon, and Behavior (17:40 – 34:15)

• Water-Driven Animal Behavior:

  • On hot, dry years: expect animals to “concentrate around reliable water, perennial springs, irrigated ag, high elevation seeps, north face pockets… generally when everything else dries up” (18:05).

• Fire Risk:

  • Lower snowpack = earlier, longer fire season, which can close hunting access at peak times.
  • "I've had that happen multiple times where I got this tag… and I can only hunt a week of the season because it’s been closed for fire." (19:00)

• Moon Phases and Hunt Timing:

  • August full moon: August 28 (good/bad for early elk/mule deer seasons depending on weather and state).

  • September full moon: September 26 (could shift elk rut timing; weather is key).

  • October full moon: October 26 (tougher for general seasons—expect nocturnal movement, rut could kick in earlier or later per weather).

  • November new moon: November 9 (potentially excellent for late rifle/migration hunts if weather aligns).

    “I really think that weather is going to be the big factor for the rut this year.” (33:55)

• Strategy Takeaway:

  • Prioritize drought/fire risk in planning.
  • Moon phases offer an edge, but weather trumps all.

State-by-State Breakdown (36:24 – 1:13:07)

Remi’s approach: For each state, he assesses snowpack (%) and precipitation relative to average, then outlines tactical implications for hunting.

Washington (37:15)

• Low snowpack (51%), High precip (111%)
• Milder winter, but water isn’t stored.
• Focus: Higher, wetter timberland for elk archery; fire and smoke closure risk on timber company land.

Oregon (38:39)

• Very low snowpack (30%), Below-average precip (85%)
• Worst moisture scenario in West.
• Hunt: Water-driven archery, prioritize perennial springs/riparian areas, expect condensed animals—fire closures a major risk.

California (40:25)

• Snowpack (57%), Precip average (100%)
• Storage is low, but more snow possible in spring.
• Focus on patchy summer water, North slopes, and creek-fed country.

Idaho (42:28)

• Split state:
  • North: Snowpack 55%, Precip 100%
  • South: Snowpack 76%, Precip 100%
• Good conditions in south, expect “consistent hunt tactics,” watching summer water.

Montana (44:43)

• Snowpack 85%, Precip 120%
• “Shining star” of the West right now.
• Building populations, good antler growth potential (especially west/mountains)—tag difficulty up for deer.

New Mexico (47:50 and again at 1:08:05)

• Snowpack 35%, Precip 72%
• Very dry. Focus animals around water sources. Spring weather critical; fire high risk.

Wyoming (49:40)

• Snowpack 84%, Precip 100%
• Near-ideal for “good summer range,” normal migration timing, likely “winner” this season.
• Note: Late October moon may drive nocturnal movement but overall outlook is strong.

Nevada (51:22)

• Snowpack 40%, Precip 93%
• Typical desert risk: early pattern around remaining water sources, heat stress, and fire risk.

Utah (52:30)

• Snowpack 49%, Precip 87%
• Snowpack more critical here; risk of early dry-down shifting animal movement.

Colorado (54:10)

• Snowpack 50%, Precip 76% (very concerning combo)
• Late spring snows could save hunt; otherwise, pronounced water bottlenecks and risk of reduced forage.

Arizona (57:19)

• Snowpack 18%, Precip 94%
• Water always key; antler growth heavily spring-dependent. Focus on scouting for water and flexibility with tag usage.

New Mexico (Again) (1:08:05)

• Emphasis on regionality—low precipitation/snow. Big fire risk; spring is critical “make or break,” especially for northern units reliant on snowpack.

Tactical Takeaways (1:13:07 – End)

Hunting in Dry Years: Practical Tactics

• “Tag the important things: Finding the thing in least supply. If it’s a drier year, water is going to be that thing.” (1:13:50)
• Focus summer scouting on where water is actually holding.
• Moon phases shape deer/elk movement—hunt security areas, shade, and transition corridors during full moons.
• Have backup hunt areas and “smoke plan” (due to anticipated fire closures).
  • "Pick a couple of different backup areas, different elevations and aspects, and maybe some alternate access routes." (1:15:10)

E-Scouting with OnX Maps

• Use drought and fire layers for pre-season planning; stay apprised of active fires in real time.
• OnX’s tools help you respond quickly if conditions shift.

  “That part of the app has saved me on a few hunts… and can help me adjust my plans accordingly.” (1:16:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Prediciting the Rut:

  “If I were to guess whether the rut was going to hit earlier or later for elk this year, I might put my eggs in the earlier basket… But I really want to see what the Spring brings.” (32:55)

• On the Power of Weather Over Moon:

  “I think the weather this year is going to be more important than whatever that moon cycle might be. I wouldn’t be afraid to plan a hunt if it happens to be in that full moon timeframe.” (1:20:10)

• On Preparation and Success:

  “Planned and prepared this year should be the theme. If you plan and prepare, you’re going to find some great hunts and maybe some really good action.” (1:23:25)

• On Resilience:

  “Over the years… our success was pretty consistent. You had weeks that were a little bit harder… but really it boils down to figuring out how to hunt those animals based on the conditions, make those plans, make those adjustments and go with the flow.” (1:22:40)

Segment Timestamps

• Opening, Theme & Purpose – 00:00 – 04:10
• 2026 General Weather Patterns – 04:10 – 17:40
• Impact of Weather on Animal Populations and Hunt Quality – 13:05 – 17:40
• Animal Behavior, Moon Phases, Fire Risks – 17:40 – 34:15
• In-depth State-by-State Breakdown – 36:24 – 1:13:07
  • (See list above for each state)
• Practical Tactics for Planning & Scouting – 1:13:07 – 1:20:00
• Final Predictions & Philosophy – 1:20:00 – 1:25:24

Overall Tone & Final Thoughts

Remi’s advice is at once pragmatic and optimistic. The language is direct and experience-driven, with an emphasis on adapting to whatever "Mother Nature" delivers. This year is neither a guaranteed success nor a deep-grind slog—it’s a call to plan, prep, scout, and stay flexible. As Remi says, “…like the weatherman, you don’t have to be right all the time, but if you’re right some of the time, great.”

For More: Listen to the full episode of Live Wild with Remi Warren, Ep. 223, for in-depth explanations and state-by-state tactical insights.