Boston Celtics Roster Moves UNLOCKED – Season-Ending Plan, Plus Vucevic & Summer Preview

Summary

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Locked On Celtics - Boston Celtics Roster Moves UNLOCKED: Season-Ending Plan, Vucevic, and Summer Preview

Host: John Karalis
Guest: Keith Smith (Spotrac)
Date: February 19, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Locked On Celtics dives deep into Boston’s late-season roster moves, salary cap gymnastics, and the strategic decisions the front office faces as playoffs approach and summer looms. Host John Karalis is joined by salary cap expert Keith Smith to demystify Boston’s roster options, the fate of buyout market dreams, and how Nikola Vucevic’s performance will shape the Celtics’ offseason strategy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Post-Trade Deadline: Celtics’ Immediate Roster Needs

• Celtics must fill out their NBA-mandated roster minimum following multiple deadline trades (04:52).
• They currently sit about $840,000 under the luxury tax, requiring delicate maneuvering (05:20).
• Explains why Boston has taken all 14 allowable days to fill open spots—a tactic to maximize cap efficiency while maintaining roster flexibility.

Keith Smith [05:20]: “They’re about $840,000 under the luxury tax... that’s barely more than a rest-of-season minimum contract goes right now.”

• Two 10-day contracts will be likely used—strictly as roster compliance, not to acquire a difference-maker.
• Conversion of Max Shulga’s contract (rookie minimum) is a likely move to “squeeze a little more” out of remaining cap wiggle room.

Keith Smith [12:24]: “If we’re into the playoffs and you're really worried about your 13th, 14th, and 15th men on the roster, you probably have a lot of other problems anyway... They’re gonna have to squeeze really, really hard to get a little bit of blood from that stone.”

2. Navigating 10-Day Contracts & the Two-Way Pipeline

• 10-day contracts bridge the roster to compliance while using the least possible cap resources (09:13).
• Celtics will spread these deals out to both delay and limit luxury tax exposure.
• Max Shulga and John Tanji are noted as likely internal promotions because their rookie minimum contracts preserve flexibility (38:14).

Keith Smith [10:06]: “You’re probably going to see them do a couple 10 days... then they can go another 14 days... then you kind of, you know, that's where you land out. So that is where it kind of comes together for them.”

• Upcoming deadlines:
  • March 1: Must be waived by this date to be playoff-eligible if signed to a standard contract.
  • March 4: Last day to sign players to a two-way deal for the season (17:53).

John Karalis [21:39]: “So essentially, you have to be a free agent. If you’re a free agent on March 1, you’re eligible to sign and be eligible for the playoffs no matter when you sign."

3. Buyout Market Realities & Summer Implications

• The hope for impact buyout signings is slim due to cap limitations (08:45).
• However, theoretically, Boston could add an external veteran late, as a one-day contract counts only ~$13k to the tax (17:07).
• The focus is on internal promotions or end-of-bench fits, unless an unusually attractive buyout emerges.

4. Vucevic’s Performance & Its Ripple Effect

• How Nikola Vucevic, Neemias Queta (Keda), and Luka Garza perform over the next two months will define Boston’s offseason decisions at center (22:28).
• If Vucevic excels, he could anchor the 2026-27 rotation. However, he’ll face market temptations—either more money from cap-flush rivals or staying for a title shot.

John Karalis [22:28]: “If Vuch plays well and Keda plays well... If that all comes to fruition... you may have to decide between more money and playing for a championship.”

• Karalis projects Vucevic’s value at the taxpayer midlevel exception, while Smith forecasts a higher market ($10–12 million/year), given the lack of superstars but a glut of solid centers in free agency (28:05):

Keith Smith [28:05]: “Stepping him all the way down to 6 million at the taxpayer, that’s a pretty steep amount to come down. I think it’s probably more likely...he gets somewhere in the 10 to 12 million dollar range on a short-term deal.”

• Boston is projected to be about $18 million under the tax next year, preserving options to both re-sign Vucevic and use their full non-taxpayer midlevel exception—ideal for adding another high-end rotation piece such as Anfernee Simons.

5. Roster Construction for 2026–27

• Keith Smith speculates Boston’s plan is to re-sign Vucevic for ~$10–12M and then target Simons (or equivalent) using the midlevel exception, leaving the roster “fairly flush” and only needing one or two minor additions (33:34).

Keith Smith [33:34]: “I think it’s going to go to Anthony Simons. I think this trade was made with the idea of we need another big... next year we got to take some of the minutes...off Tatum and Brown...Pritchard, Simons...Vuch and Keda at center...and then you’re just plugging in around that core.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Cap Squeezing and Roster Math

• Keith Smith [12:24]:
  “You’re really at the point of, like my grandmother used to say when I would ask her for money, there’s a stone out back. Try to get your blood from that. Like, good luck, right? Like you’re getting blood from a stone here. And they’re gonna have to squeeze really, really hard...”

On Buyout Hopium

• John Karalis [08:45]:
  “If anybody’s dreaming about one of these buyout guys or anything like that, probably not gonna be how this plays out.”

On Internal Promotions vs. Buyout Flash

• Keith Smith [38:14]:
  “I think there’s a good chance [John] Tanji and Max Shulga are both on the roster by the time they get to the end of the season...that opens up a little bit more spending power...timing-wise, you’re not necessarily having to play it all the way to the last day of the season.”

On Vucevic’s Future & Summer Cap Management

• Keith Smith [28:05]:
  “When I look at player values...This year he makes about $21.5 million. So stepping him all the way down to 6 million at the taxpayer, that’s a pretty steep amount to come down... So I think it’s probably more likely...he gets somewhere in the 10 to 12 million dollar range on a short-term deal.”

• Keith Smith [28:05]:
  “They’re very likely to be under the tax again next year. Just fully reset the repeater clock. They already did it. Repeater clock is now reset...there’s your roster, here’s our roster. We’re going forward with this built out.”

On Free Agent Targets

• Keith Smith [33:34]: “I think it’s going to go to Anthony Simons. I knew it. I knew it. This trade was made with the idea of...next year we got to take some of the minutes regardless of injuries and other things off Tatum and Brown after what will be another playoff run...”

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 04:52 – Celtics’ trade deadline cap status, why 14-day wait to fill roster spots
• 05:20 – Luxury tax calculations and filling minimum roster requirements
• 08:45 – Reality check: The buyout market, 10-day contracts, and likelihood of impact additions
• 12:24 – The Max Shulga rookie minimum “cap squeeze” maneuver
• 17:07 – How late season signings and one-day contracts function for playoff eligibility
• 22:28 – Vucevic/Keda/Garza: The “big man summer question” and how it shapes Boston’s offseason
• 28:05 – Keith Smith’s salary/market forecast for Vucevic, discussion of Celtics’ offseason spending power
• 33:34 – Likely use of midlevel exception; Simons as a target, and roster building philosophy
• 38:14 – What Shulga and Tanji’s promotions mean for last-day cap wrangling

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Tone and Feel

The episode offers a candid, insider’s look at NBA cap mechanics, with Karalis and Smith’s banter providing lightness amid detailed analysis. Complexity is broken down without condescension, and the hosts use humor (“I’m offering the Celtics my services...If they want to pay me a hundred thousand dollars to do nothing, I am available.” – Karalis, 09:26) to keep an otherwise technical subject lively and accessible.

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Final Thoughts

This episode is essential for understanding not just what the Celtics will likely do with their open roster spots, but why—and how every move fits into a meticulous broader plan tied to repeater tax, playoff flexibility, and laying groundwork for the 2026–27 roster. For anyone tracking Boston’s quest to stay elite while managing the constraints of a modern NBA contender’s cap sheet, this episode is a must-listen.

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Transcript

[John Corrales]

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[John Corrales]

Now on the Locked On Celtics podcast, the roster moves the Celtics will and will not make for the rest of the season and the one question that will shape their summer plans. Hey, welcome back to the Locked On Celtics podcast right here on the Lockdown Podcast network. It's your team every day. Your team's the Boston Celtics and I talk about them every Monday through Friday. Bonus podcasts going to be coming all over the place weekends when they play after every game. So subscribe shows available Everywhere. It's on YouTube. Get into the comments section there and share your thoughts with me. I'm John Corrales. I am a beat writer covering the Celtics for Sports illustrated Celtics on SI. I've been doing this job for about 20 years now covering the team doing this podcast for 10 Plus. I've written a couple of books about the team. Today's show is brought to you by five Hour Energy. You can have your cake and drink it too. Birthday cake flavor is back. No fork needed. Vanilla E. Cakey flavor. Caffeinated kick, no sugar. It's party time. Order now at 5hourenergy.com or on Amazon. So 28 games left on the schedule. About seven weeks. A little bit more than seven weeks left and whatever happens, happens. But the Celtics still have roster moves to make. They may have made them by the time you hear this podcast. But there's more to it, whatever moves they are. We'll talk about that later on. We'll talk about Nikola Vuchovic, which we kind of talked about a little bit in. In yesterday's podcast. Tom Westerholm brought it up, and I just want to build on that, because how he plays can shape the Celtics future, their summer plans, and all of that. And to do that, I got the guy to discuss this stuff with. It's Keith Smith from Spot Track. Keith, now I do. I do. Applause for. For Tom. I don't have applause loud enough for you, so I don't know about all.

[Keith Smith]

That, but I'll take it. My mom will appreciate it at least, so that's nice.

[John Corrales]

There you go. So my mom thinks I'm cool. Yeah. Yeah, man. So I appreciate. How'd you. How are you surviving post All Star? I mean, post trade deadline, all that stuff. I know it's a crazy time for you.

[Keith Smith]

Yeah, you know, we're doing okay. The trade deadline came fast and furious. We had to completely revamp our coverage plans on spot track. We didn't get a trickle of deals. We got a whole bunch of deals each of the final three days leading into the deadline. So rather than do individual deal recaps, we switched it up and did, like, kind of, here's what teams did, here's why they did it, and here's the work they still have to do with the roster the rest of the year. And those people seem to like that kind of capsule format instead. So that was good. And yeah, now we're, you know, it. It sounds weird to say this because we're getting into, like, the. The good part of the season, right? The. The seating battles and then into the playoffs and all that stuff. But it's. I always tell people I live at two in two worlds at this time of year. I live in the what's happening right now and love all the games because despite being a transact, a soulless transaction robot, I do love basketball. Is my favorite part of basketball that is, like, the thing I love most about it. But the other part of my world is prepping for the off season in the summertime. So we get a lot of work going on with that as well.

[John Corrales]

Soulless transaction robot activates. To let us know what the Celtics are going to do with two open roster spots is a function of the trades that they made. They had 14 days to fill these roster spots, so they've taken all 14. Explain to us, please, why they needed to take all 14 and why they might take 14 more.

[Keith Smith]

Yes. So as a result of all their trade deadline dealings, the Celtics are about $840,000 under the the luxury tax. They despite not openly saying it, Brad Stevens, I thought in a pretty good interview with Chris Forsberg said, hey, we did a lot of work to get under the tax and there's reasons for that. As far as resetting the repeater, I'm paraphrasing Brad obviously here, but he said our our group. And he shouted out Mike Zarin, Dave Lewin, Buddy Scott. That's kind of like the cap management gurus of the Celtics. Felt like we could do this and still meet all the requirements we need to. And there's going to be a lot that goes here. So 840,000 under the tax is not a lot to work with. That's barely more than a rest of the season minimum contract goes right now. That would be just so we have it. And I'm not going to bore people to tears with numbers too much here, but it's about $726,000. So they could do that, but then they would not be able to then do another one. And here's the key, they have to get to 14 players at least. So right now the sell on standard contracts, to be to be clear, they've got 12 players right now on standard contracts, three players on two ways. So they're at 15 total. But the two way guys don't count towards this. So you got to get up to 14. And the reason why is that's a collectively bargained thing so that NBA teams don't let it ride forever with short rosters and just oh, we'll use our two way guys until we use up all that eligibility. And there's all these kind of like closures to loopholes for doing these kind of things. So you get 14 days that you can be under 14 players. And once they expire you have to go back up to 14 players. So that means Boston has to sign two guys coming up here on the 19th is the date that they're going to have to do that. And then what happens is you could play that, that period out, right? Because once you sign it, let's say they go the 10 day contract route, which is the way I think this is going to play out. Initially you do a 10 day contract, that 10 day contract comes in. Whether you waive the guy on Friday or you let him play out as 10 days, the full 10 day amount hit your books. So that's going to Hit the books. So 10 day contracts, about 132,000. So you can start to see the mat's going to be really, really tight for the Celtics to pull this off. We can get into deeper. What I think may happen with a couple of the two way guys as well. There's going to be some, let's call it shenanigans. They're probably going to play there a little bit with some stuff. So I think we're going to see a lot of roster movement for guys that I don't, I don't know if they'll ever play unless it's blowouts or, or wherever. But this is all to me, roster minimums into time everything out. So you have a, a roster and I do believe they've got it all timed out or planned out. They will be able to fill to 15 by the time we get to the last day of the season, which is your last day to sign a player and go. So if anybody's dreaming about one of these buyout guys or anything like that, probably not going to be how this plays out unless it is, let's say about 2ish months down the road when we hit the end of the regular season.

[John Corrales]

So yes. And there's. So they, they can play the game. Right. So the, the most likely path is two 10 day contracts that are coming up at some point on Thursday and those are going to be. Does it matter who it is? Does it matter if it's, you know, me or you know, you know, a 10 year vet? Does it matter?

[Keith Smith]

Yeah. So John, I know you played pro, but I don't think you have an NBA year of service under your belt unfortunately. So, so I think doesn't matter. Here's why it doesn't matter. Go ahead.

[John Corrales]

I just want to say I'm offering the Celtics my services. If they want to pay me a hundred thousand dollars to do nothing, I am available.

[Keith Smith]

I'm gonna go down a side quest here just for a second. I used to say all the time when, when I was much younger that like I'll just sit on the bench, I'll just give me enough to live and like I'll just be on the bench at the end of the bench. Then I came to learn oh, there's actual minimum salaries and they can get somebody who actually completely play to do that. I guess I'm out. I guess my, my opportunities. I know, right? Yeah.

[John Corrales]

So stands. But go ahead.

[Keith Smith]

So you're right. So they're probably going to do a couple 10 days. So that's I'm, and I'm rounding here with all this just to keep the math semi easy. So that's about $264,000. So that'll, that'll be what will run you out for the next 10 days then I think what will happen. And just so everybody knows, There is about 55 days left in the season and that's just the regular season. Once you get on playoffs, playoffs don't count that way and it doesn't matter because your roster is set so that, that'll be 10 days out of that 55, 260K. Then they can go another 14 days. But that's it. They can't go a day beyond that because the other part of this is you're allowed to go 14 days without 14 players on your roster on standard deals. But you can only do that for up to a total of 28 days in the season. So they could do 28 more days and then, then you kind of, you know, that's where you land out. So that is where it kind of comes together for them. They're going to have to do some stuff here. I think what you're going to see them do, couple 10 days, go another 14 days, a couple more 10 days. Now you've eaten up 34 of the days that were remaining in the season. So now we're down to 21 days left. 21 days, that's essentially the equivalent of 210 days. Right. So now you're at about 264k that you still need in the books. Well, what you've done is you've used up about 520k of your 840. So now you have a little more than one, more than you can need to fill out and then they should have enough left on the very last day of the season or so to sign somebody to a contract. There is a caveat to this. Max Shulga, because he was drafted by the Celtics, would actually count on the roster at the rookie minimum because they drafted him. So that would only be $73,000 on a 10 day or a rest of the season. Signing right now would be about 400k. So you're a little under, you know, 300k under what a vet min guy would cost. So I think Max Shulga, even though he hasn't really played at all for the Celtics, I think he's gotten in one or two games and his play in Maine has been okay. I think you're going to see the Celtics convert him to, to arrest a season deal because that will take up one of the roster spots on as cheap as it possibly can of a contract, and then you have him there because, let's face it, if we're into the playoffs and you're really worried about your 13th, 14th, and 15th men on the roster, you probably have a lot of other problems anyway that we're not going to worry about. So that's how you can squeeze a little bit more out of this, right? You're really at the point of, like my grandmother used to say when I would ask her for money, there's a stone out back. Try to get your blood from that. Like, good luck, right? Like it's, you know, like you're getting blood from a stone here. And they're gonna have to squeeze really, really hard to get. Get a little bit of. Bit. Bit more blood from that stone.

[John Corrales]

Okay? So, Max Shilga, welcome to the team. That's basically what we're getting at. All right, we'll. We'll take a second here, we'll come back, we'll wrap this part up, and then we'll get into Nicola Vuchovic, that situation, and what that could mean for the Celtics moving forward. We'll do that when we come back. Today's show is brought to you by five Hour Energy. Welcome to the five Hour Energy Flavor draft. We're looking at every aspect of the draft to let you know which tasty flavors are the best and which just might be sleepers. The board is set, the flavors are ready, and only one is going to take the top spot. Five Hour Energy has a wide variety of. Variety of flavors and something for everyone. So let's take a look at some of these flavors. Which one's going to be my top pick? You have cotton candy, a delicious swirl of sugary clouds. A fruity twist, a hint of vanilla. It's a light, airy candy profile. Pure sweetness from start to finish. It's a sweet tooth fix. No sugar guilt, which is very strong. Fruity rainbow, another strong candidate. Bright blend of a sort of fruit candy flavors. A sweet, layered fruit note in every sip. Nostalgic candy bag flavor. Again, no sugar. And the grape conquered grape flavor similar to grape juicer candy. Soft, rounded sweetness, Consistent, straightforward taste. Classic purple candy style finish. And you know what? That is going to be my number one pick. I love grape. I love purple. And that smooth, almost syrupy like fruit profile just reminds me of my childhood. But I get that, that bit of caffeine that. That boost. And so I'm going to go with grape. But some of these others that are Real sleepers. The cotton candy can be a real sleeper there too. But find your new flavor Favorite flavor at 5 Hour Energy Shots available at 5Hour Energy.com 5hourenergy the number five 5Hour Energy.com or on Amazon thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks good sir. Here is my Discover card.

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[Keith Smith]

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[John Corrales]

Thanks for making Locked on Celtics your first listen. Every day check out lockdown NBA locked on NBA game night. They are covering the league. Games are going to be back and so game night has every game covered. Lockdown. NBA has all the big stories, all the big storylines covered. So check those out wherever you get your podcast. All right, so Keith, just to button things up, it's a couple of 10 days here or there. Shulga upgraded last day of the season. Is there a, is there a possibility that they could either upgrade Ron Harper or go out and like find somebody that, let's just pretend player X is out there, that's actually a decent buyout guy and the Celtics say, look, we want you, we're in this position. We will sign you on the last day and you'll be in there for the playoffs. Can they do that and fit somebody under this little plan?

[Keith Smith]

Yeah, I think so. Because when you get to that last day, it sounds weird to call it this because it's not what it really is. But a one day contract would be a little over 13k for a player who counts to the tax at the two year minimum amount. So I think what eventually we'll see happen is like I said, Shulga, at some point on the roster, couple of 10 days maybe you, you know, try a couple guys out, right. And see like hey, we kind of like that guy. Let's stash him in the G league and then we'll, we'll go get him later. And then.

[John Corrales]

Well, I'm sorry, you, you, I'm sorry to interrupt. Just to, to interrupt that, that point there, you upgrade Shulga, you get these 10 guy, 10 day guys on tryouts. You now have opened up a two way spot.

[Keith Smith]

Correct.

[John Corrales]

So you, you're using this kind of ten day thing as potential two way signing.

[Keith Smith]

Yeah. And here I'm glad you called that out because here's the other important thing. This first round of 10 days, if they sign them on Thursday, which is how I think this will probably play out, they will end on March 1st is when they'll expire. So then March 4th is your last day that you can sign a player to your active roster on a two way contract. So March 4th is kind of the hard and fast deadline. And if you bumped Shulga up and you wanted to replace him with somebody on another two way contract, so that is, that's the other kind of date based deadline to keep in mind. But to your original question, I think they're going to play all of this time it all the way out to the very end of the season and probably on the, it should be maybe with a couple days left. If my, if my math is right on this, I think when they get to that last day of the season, then they'll be able to sign somebody and say, hey, you're in, you're on our playoff roster. Full playoff share comes your way and all that stuff, whatever comes. And if it's a player who's trying to hit like a year of service benchmark, you'll get a year of service on your thing. If everybody remembers a couple years ago with Tony Snell, that was a whole thing where he was trying to get to 10 years because at that point full insurance coverage is vested for the remainder there. So, so you'll have guys and some guys may be like, hey, want to get to two years of service? So let them in the vet min next year. All kinds of things like that come into play there where they could kind of, you know, go. And then ideally, right, you're like, hey, this guy's a nice break glass in case of emergency guy that we can put on the floor if we really need to. Like, like it would before he retired. I was like, would have been kind of funny if they were like, hey, Chris Paul, you want to sign on last day of the season and be here for the playoff run. That's to be very clear. I don't think that's going to be how it goes now that Chris Paul has said I'm done. But that's what you're thinking of. One other date I want to make sure people are aware of because this gets confused a lot. March 1st is the, it's. The NBA calls it the playoff eligibility waiver deadline because. Because that flows very nicely. Yeah, but I have a tattoo that says yeah, right. Basically what that means is if you're on a roster today, you have to be waived by March 1st in order to be eligible for the playoffs, but you do not have to be signed by March 1st. That gets confused. Regularly players sign all the time. In the last couple days of the season, Dante Jones did it two years in a row with the Cavs where Dante Jones was like just a memory. And then last day of the season was like hey, cool playoffs, sign me up, I'm ready to go. And jumped in with the Cavs two years in a row. I don't. And then he did actually get into a couple games in one of their playoff runs. But that's kind of just something else to keep in mind that if a player is waived after that. But here's the thing that's really important to note. Let's say the Celtics sign one of these guys to a two way or excuse me, to a 10 day. And then the player is. They're like wow, we really like that guy. We want him. And it's now March 20th in the 10 day expired. That doesn't matter because 10 day contracts expire. They end the player's not being waived. So you could still bring that guy back after. Even if he's on the roster after March 1st. It's truly guys who are signed to regular standard contracts.

[John Corrales]

Gotcha. So essentially speaking, you have to be a free agent. If you're a free agent on March 1, you're eligible to sign and be eligible for the playoffs no matter when you sign. Yeah, that's the, that, that's the, the summary.

[Keith Smith]

And with a two way player. Because we will be like what about if a two way guy signs on March 4th? Does that matter? Two way players aren't eligible for the postseason anyway. So it doesn't matter with them. But, but March. So March 1st, keep an eye on guys to be waived by March 1st and then keep an eye on March 4th as the final date for two way movement. We've seen a lot of two way movement here coming out of the all star break because teams are kind of resetting their rosters post trade deadline and all that. We're going to see a little bit more here over the next couple of weeks as teams really finish their build outs for their rosters for the rest of the way.

[John Corrales]

And so now we move on to the thing that. I just wrote a piece about this because Tom mentioned it yesterday and inspired me and it's the Vuchovic can he. And Keda and Garza can they set themselves as the big man rotation. That to me shapes the entire summer for the Celtics. Because if they can, if you go These next two months and Vuch plays well and Keita plays well and I'm assuming that Vuch becomes a starter and Keda becomes a, a sixth or seventh man and Garza plays the emergency minutes. I feel confident Garja play Garza playing the emergency minutes because he's kind of done that anyway. If that all comes to fruition, if, let's just assume, hey, what this group, we like it, we like where Vuj is. We think he can do this at least one more year, maybe more. I'm, I'm not sure what the market is going to be for Vuch next year. He may have a decision to make. There may be somebody that says, hey, we'll offer you a little bit of money to come over and play with us. There may be one of these salary floor teams that says, we'll offer you more money than you can even like, imagine because we gotta, we gotta pay somebody and what the hell, why not? We like you, we're gonna, we're gonna pay you and you fit. So we'll just pay you. And he may have to decide between more money and playing for a championship like that. It just may come down to that. What, what do you think is a reasonable amount to pay him? I'll give you mine. I think my numbers is taxpayer mid level. Even though obviously they have his bird rights, they don't have to use their taxpayer mid level. I think taxpayer mid level is going to be his market, his reasonable market. Do you think that it's more than that? If it's more than that, what's your number? If it's not, what would it mean for the Celtics moving forward with Vuch at that tax pyramid level? In fact, I'm going to let you think about that answer. We're going to come back and get that answer. I threw a lot at you. 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Free audio compatible with Apple Podcasts, Spotify every major podcasting app. You get access to the Everyday Club Discord Server Group Chat for Lockdown Celtics for NBA listeners. All of that plus a whole lot more. It's five bucks a month. 50 bucks for the year at lockdown celtics.supercast.com lockdown celtics.supercast dot com if you can't remember it. You didn't hear me say it that fast. It's in the show notes, so go check that out. All right. Keith, I threw a lot at you. I'm not going to repeat myself because I said a lot. I don't remember what I said. What do you think about that Vucovic situation?

[Keith Smith]

Yeah. So when I, when I start thinking about player values when they're going into free agency, the first thing I look at is what is the cap environment of the teams that have cap space. Do they need centers? What other centers are available? Here's the thing that hurts. Vuch helps the Celtics. It's a pretty deep center group. It's not a great free agent class. There's a lot of centers available. So guys that are definitely going to get paid, Jalen Duran, Walker Kessler, Isaiah Hardenstein feel pretty good. Those three guys all going to get paid. The next guy on the list, Mitchell Robinson probably also going to get paid pretty well. Then you get into old friend Chris Thaps. Porzingis is an unrestricted free agent. Namias K. If the Celtics declined his team option, I don't think they're going to because it doesn't make sense in this case for them to do that. And that is to be fair, that's the same case with Hartenstein. But the Thunder have issues with Hartenstein on the books at 28 million. Let's just say that I think that one might be a little wink and a nod of hey, we already know how this is going to play out with this. So then you get into guys like Mark Williams, DeAndre, Ayton, Brook Lopez, Yusuf Nurkic, potentially Al Horford, Daron Sharp, Sandro Mamu, Kellish, Feely like now you're into like nice players but good bench guys. Vuch probably right in the middle of that. Right. Still a starter, but like not as good as the couple restricted guys. Not as good as Hartenstein, Mitch Robinson, those kind of guys. Porzingis, that's mileage may vary there, right? Like that's kind of depends on what he looks like the rest of the year. So because of all that, I think then I get into, well this year he makes about 21.5 million. So stepping him all the way down to 6 million at the taxpayer, that's a pretty steep amount to come down. So I think it's probably more likely if he's going to stay with Boston or go somewhere else, he gets somewhere in the 10 to 12 million dollar range on a short term deal. Probably kind of like what Brook Lopez did price in a little bit of inflation. The cap goes up a little bit. Lopez essentially signed a couple of, you know, he signed a one year or excuse me, a two year deal with a team option that is 8.75 this year and 9.2 next year. So I think with Vuch bump it up to about 10, maybe 11, maybe 12. Get him in that range. That's what you're probably looking at paying him on. And for another team that is, that is either cap space or that is just above the room mid level or that could be. We're going to give a chunk of our mid level but not the whole thing. We're going to save some of it back like what the Clippers did. Now they used the rest on Bradley Beal. You know, that's didn't work out for them. But that was the plan, right was we're going to do it this way. So that's where I kind of think you're looking at with Van for the Celtics standpoint. The other thing I look at really with them is they, they're set right now factoring in draft pick that's going to be in the mid to late 20s. They are about. I project them to be about $18 million under the tax going into the off season. They're not going to go into the tax by an amount that they won't be able to then get back out of it. They're very likely to be under the tax again next year. Just fully reset the repeater clock. They already did it. They already got the process started this year that gets them out fully. Repeater clock is now reset. They can, it'll be. They would have to do multiple years of being in the tax before it would kick back in. So let's say 18, let's just call it 20ish in that range is probably where they want to be somewhere between 20, 25 million in spending power this summer. So I think the other factor for the Celtics, and I know you threw a lot of me, so I'm throwing a lot back at you is they don't have a ton of roster spots to fill. Their roster is fairly flush because you have all these guys that they've drafted over the past couple years are still on the roster. Got Tatum, Brown, Pritchard, White. You've got Cato who has now popped and become for me a very like not even just serve serviceable is under a good starting center like he's, you know, perfectly fine. So now you're looking at. All right, we only really have in Boston. If you're sitting down as the front office, you're saying we only really have about three roster spots we need to fill and we always keep one open anyway into the season. So that really becomes two in areas for me. You look at and say all right, so let's call it 20 to 25 million in spending power. All right, there we are. That's kind of our numbers. Right here's where we want to go. We're going to give some of that to Vuch to resign him and this is all assuming he works out and everything goes well and he wants to return. Of course then we have the full non taxpayer mid level because we're 27 million under the first apron at which we would get hard capped. So you're, you're more than enough room under that. And I kind of have an idea where that one could go to if you want to hear it. So I'm kind of, kind of, kind of doing the wind horse finger thing a little bit there.

[John Corrales]

Okay, hit me with it.

[Keith Smith]

I think it's going to go to Anthony Simons. I knew it. I knew it. I knew it. I, I think this trade was made with the idea of we need another big Jason Tatum is coming back. Your, your role is going to change but next year we got to take some of the minutes regardless of injuries and other things off of Tatum and Brown after what will be another playoff run of some length, who knows how long. And now you go into next year with the. Your roster is white, Brown, Tatum, insert whoever 5th starter, KADA or V is the center, the other one's the backup and I'm coming off the bench with Pritchard, Simons and then the young guy, you know, Walsh, Hauser, Hower's not a but you know what I mean. Shireman, Hugo, whoever. We draft in the first round this year. That's all. There's our roster, here's our roster. We're going forward with this built out. And part of that was Simon's comments were very like yeah, I'd come back here. I really liked it here. I loved it here. Like, like to me that was like that's a little weird because a lot of guys would have gone to yeah, I want to see how it goes here in Chicago and see the main of the Celtics are like yeah, it's going to be out of our price range but I've thought for a while his number is going to come down into something in the, in the non taxpayer mle range and again if we're saying you got 20 to 25 million to spend. You could probably fit him and V into that together. And that's. There's your roster with one open spot.

[John Corrales]

I'm going to share this thing that I wrote. I don't know if I can put this. Oh, it doesn't look great on the screen, but I don't know if this can be seen here on the YouTube page. I wonder if I can zoom in on the line here. Right here I wrote on Celtics on Si. The Celtics could try to go big with another bench score. I think some kid named Anthony something is a free agent who likes Boston. So I just want to put it out there that my reaction to that, what you said was because I was saying the same thing and I think it's possible that the, the mid level goes to Simons. I'm, I'm going to stay. I don't know if it's bullish. Is that a pun that I'm making on, on spend for Vuch? I don't know that the Celtics want to go to 10 million on somebody like Vujovic.

[Keith Smith]

They may not.

[John Corrales]

And that's so here.

[Keith Smith]

Can, can I. One thing with that though is because you have, let's call it 6 million, I'm rounding in your other two centers. I think you can pay a little more with someone like Vuch because I think you could go. And again, this is all if, if things go awful and it's just like, man, Vuch was not great, then his contract expires and that's, that's, it's a little harder because you don't have Bird rights which allow you to pay him kind of whatever you need to. And that's where maybe then they're like, all right, we're just going to use the non taxpayer and then we'll figure it out. The non taxpayer. The nice thing is while this free agent class upcoming is not loaded with like, oh my gosh, look at all these super duper stars here. It is pretty deep and talented players like guys who are solid starters or high end rotation players. And I think if you're the Celtics, you're feeling pretty good on whether it's Simons or it's somebody else, you're feeling pretty good. Hey, if I got the full non taxpayer with or without Vuch, I'm going to land a sure fire good rotation guy. Maybe then they say let's split the non taxpayer between two guys and it's about 16 million was what it looks to be. Next season we'll split it and we'll. 15 million, sorry, split it and give two guys, you know, seven and a half million each. And that's how I'll play it out.

[John Corrales]

Okay, so I have some other thoughts. Do you have another 10 minutes to talk about my other thoughts?

[Keith Smith]

Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

[John Corrales]

So here's, here's what we're going to do. I'm going to wrap up the podcast there and say I think we're in a good spot with the, with where we are as far as where the Celtics are, what they might offer Vuch and where they might go with their, with their spending.

[Keith Smith]

So can I go back to one other thing? Sorry, you're wrapping up here. Yeah, I want to go back because I, I didn't misspeak, but I didn't add John Tanji counts the exact same way as Max Shul does towards, towards anything that they want to do. And you don't necessarily acquire a two way guy in a trade unless you have a reason to do that. The Celtics could have very easily have sent minimal amount of cash they had already. They did that in the Josh Minot trade. They could have done a top 55 protected pick. That happens all the time. They had picks they could have done that with. So keep an eye on him as well. I, I think there's a good chance him and Max Shulga are both on the roster by the time. Time they get to the end of the season. Whether that happens in the next couple days, that happens in the next couple weeks, I think by the time we get to the end of the season, it's going to be Shulga, Tanji and somebody else, whoever that is. Now the good news is because Shulga and Tanji both count at the minimum. Minimum that is, that opens up a little bit more spending power. And timing wise, not spending power is not the right word to use, but timing wise, you're not necessarily having to play it all the way to the last day of the season.

[John Corrales]

Gotcha. Okay. Worth noting. Worth noting. Okay, so with that, I'm gonna wrap up this podcast and say thank you to Keith and appreciate your time here and thank you for explaining a lot of that stuff. I want to say thank you to listening, for watching and all of that stuff. We're very much at our limit for the podcast, so thank you for listening and watching bonus content. Bonus content coming up in the middle of the day with Keith. So make sure you're listening, subscribed and all of that. It's going to be on audio, it's going to be on video. Now Share the Podcast Tell everybody they should be listening to and watching the Lockdown Celtics podcast here on the Lockdown Podcast Network. It's your team every day Tax season.

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[Keith Smith]

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