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Locked On Celtics - Daily Podcast On The Boston Celtics
Celtics SURPRISE? Can Boston get to 45 wins (or MORE) this season?
00:33:01
Can the Boston Celtics reach 45 wins this season? John Karalis of Boston Sports Journal breaks down the factors that could propel or hinder the team's success. Karalis analyzes the Celtics' roster, examining how key players like Jaylen Brown, Anfernee Simons, and Derrick White might contribute to reaching this crucial benchmark. He explores potential challenges, including injury risks and competition from improving Eastern Conference teams. The discussion covers the impact of new additions, offensive strategies, and the unpredictable nature of NBA seasons. Tune in for an in-depth look at the Celtics' path to 45 wins and what it means for their playoff aspirations.
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John Corrales
Foreign Podcast Network your team every day.
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John Corrales
Let's revisit the question of how good this Celtics team can be. The argument for and against a 45 win season right now on the Lockdown Celtics podcast. Huh?
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Yep, yep, yep. Be town be ever ready. It's the seas. Who else could it be? What they going to say now screaming like JT Corralis? Recap the madness every game, every practice, prime time. Depp and D. White on the side sideline. Rennie Jays how we started raising bandits. How we finish locked on Celtics pot. Home of the winners.
- [02:09]
John Corrales
Hey there. Welcome back to the Lockdown Celtics podcast right here on the Lockdown Podcast network where it is your team every day. Your team is the Boston Celtics. I talk about them every Monday through Friday right here for free. Available everywhere. Podcasts exist, even on YouTube. So get to the comment section there. Share your thoughts with your fellow Celtics fans, the everydayers who are with me every Monday through Friday. And me, John. I'm John Corrales, beat writer for Boston Sports Journal. I've been doing a version of this job for about 20 years I've written a couple books about this team, so join me all season long, five days a week, sometimes six or seven days a week, because I'll podcast after every game, too. Today we're revisiting a question that we talked about earlier in the off season, but I think it's worth revisiting. How good can this team be? Can they get to 45 wins? I think all season, all summer long, I should say I've been pretty clear on. I think this is kind of a mediocre team. The way I've been putting it is they're not as good as the good teams, they're not as bad as the bad teams. So that puts them squarely in the middle. So I think 41 and 41 is a fair expectation and winning record. Hey, big win for this season. Losing record possible. It's gonna, you know, the potential is there for it. 45 wins, I think, is kind of like a benchmark. That means you're. You're a good team. You're not. 50 wins good. 50 wins is like the magic number. Anything above 50, you're. You're a really good team. Can the Celtics get to 45? I mean, more. Some people are going to say more. Will it be less? We've talked about them potentially tanking. I just don't. They're too good for that. And unless something crazy happens, which we'll touch on in the third segment when we get to reasons against, I think this is still going to be a playoff team, possibly. Got to remember that the Magic. The Celtics face the magic. There were 41 and 41 team last season, so 41 wins will get you there. 45 wins, that's better than the Pistons last year, and they were the six seed. So 45 win season. You can ostensibly find yourself out of the play in. In the playoffs and ready to potentially make some noise. Reasons for it are coming up in the second segment. Let's just. I want to set these expectations because I. I started off this off season looking at all the moves that the Celtics had made, and I was like, man, this front court is kind of weak, and it is still kind of weak. Namish Kada is going to be in line to be the starting center. I think that's just how it's gonna. How it's gonna go. I don't think they're going to go with Boucher. I don't think they're going to go with Garza. Having thought about it and having seen Keita's Euroleague, I think he's Going to be the starting center for the Celtics. And looking at now Anthony Simons, who I thought would be gone by now, he's sticking around. So that changes the calculus a little bit. I think it's worth kind of resetting the expectations. Is 41 wins actually a good place to set the expectation or should it, should it be higher? Should we be expecting the 45 wins rather than asking the question, can they get to 45 wins? Certainly people who are going to be in that, yes, they can get the 45 wins, you're going to say, yes, we should be expecting that. I tend to set the expectations a little lower in a year like this, partly because if they exceed them, hey, everybody's happy. And I don't want to say, oh, wow, this can be a 50 win team, can't. Can it be? Obviously I'm going to be making the case that it can be a 45 win team. Plus potentially, can they get there? Sure. There's a lot of things that have to go right. Can it. There's a possibility. There are universes, realities, Rick and Morty style, where you can portal gun your way into A Celtics win 50 game season with everything with all the players that they have on this team. So. But I want to set the expectations just a little bit lower because of the reasons we're going to get to in that third segment. There are things that go wrong every season. Seasons never go the way you hope they would go. Very rarely anyway do they go the way you hope they would go. Even in that championship season a couple years ago for the Celtics where it kind of went similarly to what I had thought, there were still little bits where people were like, oh, I don't know, I don't know about these guys. And so it's very, very easy to get caught up, especially if you're, you know, a fan, you're a die hard Celtics fan, you're listening and you're, you want to believe in the best, in everything that's totally fine. And there are some people who are just pessimists and you want to believe in the worst and everything that's totally fine too. My job is not necessarily to be a Celtics fan. It's to be. I see it as objective. Right. I'm here to tell you what I think. And I'm, I'm setting an expectation based on my professional opinion. Now other people who have the same qualifications as I do will have different opinions. And that's why you probably listen to more than one podcast and you don't just Read me, you read other people, that's totally fine. You should be getting varied opinions as well. As long as I'm first, you can get the other ones after me. That's fine. Different people will have different takes on what the season's going to be. My expectation of a 500 team takes into account some things maybe not meshing. Right. Some things taking a little longer to, to work out. Right. There are more guys that are getting used to style of play, personnel, personalities, all of that stuff. So there is the potential for a, a tough start to the season. Let, let's look at it. When we talk about expectations. There is the potential for a losing streak. The Celtics start their season in at home against Philadelphia. That's Joellen Bead. That's Paul George's guys that are going to be, they're never going to be healthier than they are at that point. And the Celtics front court is not great. That could be a loss, right? And maybe not, but it could be a loss. Go to New York. That's, that's going to be a tough game. A Detroit, New Orleans, back to back. You better get that New Orleans game. But if it's on a back to back third game, you know, in four nights you come home to face Cleveland, then you go to Philly. Then to start off, you have Houston in November before you get Utah, Washington and then you go to Orlando. I'm not saying I expect, what is this, four, five, six, seven games? I'm not expecting them to go 07 to start the season. But if the Celtics are taking a little time to gel, trying to figure certain things out, trying to figure out their front court out, tough matchups with Embiid Carl Anthony Towns. Detroit's a tough team. New Orleans is not great, but who knows what they're going to be to start the season. Cleveland obviously the best team in the east, Philly again, and then Houston, who is a really good team. If they start oh and seven, that doesn't mean that there isn't a four game winning streak somewhere to help make up for that. But if the Celtics get off to a slow start, then that makes 45 wins difficult. I am factoring in when I say mediocre to like I'm looking at this beginning of the season, I said, well, they, they obviously could they beat a few of these teams? Absolutely. I'm not, I can see, I can see 07. I can also see 2 and 5, 3 and 4. I can see different potential results. They're not. The Detroit game is not an automatic loss. New Orleans is not an automatic loss. You can, you can beat New York or Cleveland or maybe Houston, you can beat one of those teams. You can beat Philly. If Embiid, you know, takes a night off, you, you can win some of these games. But I'm being realistic. In Nemes, Kada is not going to do great against Embiid. He's not going to do great against Carl Towns. He's not going to have his best game against Cleveland and Jared Allen and Evan Mobley. He's, it's, they're going to, you have to be realistic. He might be fine. But those, those types of games, those types of stretches I think are going to be there throughout the course of the season. And so I'm, this is what factors in to my 41 and 41, 42 and 40, basically a middle of the road team. But 45 wins I think is a good benchmark. If they get to 45 wins, I think that's a big credit to Joe Missoula. Into the players, can they get there? The reasons for them getting to 45 wins, maybe more are coming up when I come back. Today's show is brought to you by Monarch Money. 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- [13:03]
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- [13:42]
John Corrales
Thank you for making a Lockdown Celtics your first listen every day. Go check out Lockdown NBA locked on NBA game night. They've got you covered with everything in the league, everything in the association all year long. Lockdown to be a game night has you covered seven days a week. I'm there on Fridays with Jake Madison. When the season starts we'll be covering all of the games and we will be just getting you up to date on everything in the league. So Lockdown NBA two two podcasts, one feed. Let's get into the discussion here of the reasons why the Celtics will get to 45 wins or more but at least 45 wins and again 45 wins. That gets you, that gets you a playoff. That gets you out of I think the play in tournament this year. You've got the Cavs who are the obvious number one. I think the Knicks are number two. And then there's a fight for number three. Is it Detroit? Is it Orlando? Is it Atlanta? Is Milwaukee going to jump up there? Are the Pacers going to just pull their magic even without Tyrese Halliburton and jump up there? Is Miami going to find something? Chicago going to find something? Is Philly going to be, you know, like there are a lot of teams up there kind of that three through that three, four, five, six. That is a. That is going to be a real tight race I think. But then after that, Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn, Toronto, I mean Miami might dip into there that that group of tanking to potentially play in teams That I think the sellers are going to avoid all that. So there are going to be plenty of wins there for the Celtics. They have a good roster. You know, you're obviously Jalen Brown, Anthony Simons again, when we're first putting this whole exercise together, you know, a couple months ago, Simons, I just considered him gone by this part of the year. I just thought it was going to be Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Peyton Pritchard as your three offensive stars. Anthony Simons being here and looking like he's going to be here at least for the foreseeable future, probably at least until mid December or the trade deadline or maybe beyond, who knows? But that, that will change the offense whether he starts or finish or comes off the bench. Now you've got one more guy in Simons that is a true offensive star. Simons, you know, defensively, obviously that's going to be an issue. One of the things the Celtics are going to need if he's going to. If you're going to win 45 games is Simon's going to have to be a passable defender. We talked about that yesterday. If you missed yesterday's show, Tom Westerholm and I went through a whole big thing with Anthony Simons. And that's one of the things you can. You can argue, you know, in an optimistic way that Simons does have defensive chops in him. He just, in Portland, never really had the motivation or kind of reason to try as hard as he should. So, okay, being optimistic, maybe he does show a little bit of defensive intensity. Celtics, you know, force a bunch of turnovers and they can get running well. That's good for a few games right there. So can. Can he be a defensive. Anything not negative, just a defensive neutral. If Anthony Simons is just a defensive neutral, then that's a huge win for the Celtics because he's. He should be a negative. So with Simons as an offensive threat, Jalen Brown is an offensive threat. Those are your two best offensive players, scorers. Derrick White, still a really good offensive scorer. Now, we haven't seen him play without Jason Tatum and without Kristaps Porzingis. So there are questions here, but I trust Derek White kind of implicitly with this offense. I think he's always going to make good decisions. So he does well. Peyton Pritchard does well. Sam Houser shoots well. Namish K. I think he is a big X factor in all of this. And I've talked about this on the podcast before. If Keda can come in and give you 20 plus minutes, a game. And if he stays healthy, then. Okay, then the math changes a little bit here because a productive 20 minutes a game from Namish Keita. Okay, well, now you've got a legit 7 footer who can block a few shots and who can catch a lob, who can set a pick. Okay, that's. Now you're starting to stack up some wins here because a good Namishkeda can win you a game or two. Anthony Simons can win you a few, you know, a few games. Derek White can win you a few games. You know, Jaylen Brown can win you a few games. There's a lot of reason to be optimistic. And as I'm talking this through, I can sit here and say maybe 41 wins is a little on the low side. Simons especially can change a lot. That front court with Keda has to perform if the Celtics are going to win 45 games, if they are going to get there or more. Keita has to be good. Boucher has to be good. They have to be healthy and available. Garza has to find something, something on the defensive end. They, they have to find maybe Minot. Like those guys, the fringe guys have to be something no one's talked about Josh Minot. And that's going to be one of the things that I, I probably focus on early in training camp is what's he going to be? Is he going to be a, you know, an energy guy that the Celtics are kind of missing? That lunatic off the bench, right? That, that guy that comes in the, you know, what Peyton Pritchard used to be. Now Pritchard can still be that guy, but he's, he's a potential starter. And I'm talking about that guy off the bench. When your starters don't have it right, you bring him in. The Aaron Neesmith type, the Robert Williams type, right? You, you. When, when I remember a game specifically in Miami a few years ago that they sucked. I think Brad Stevens was still coaching. They sucked. Rob came in, energy boost, they turn around, they won the game like that. Those types of games are like, is can Minot be that guy? Like Joe Missoula coaching staff, there's still a feeling of they're unproven even though they've won a championship. This is going to be a new style. It's not going to be three point heavy in the same way that it was before because you're missing a bunch of three point shooters. Can they adjust and kind of hit a stride earlier so they don't start? Oh, and seven can they can, they hit the ground running and, and get through that first stretch. I'll tell you what, if they get through that first stretch, even three and four, then, okay, 45 win seasons on the table because there are going to be some winning streaks in this schedule. Now they might go win two, lose two, win two, lose three, win three, lose two. Like they might do that for a lot of the season. But if they can avoid a big losing streak early on, then they give themselves a chance to. Instead of three, maybe they win four, maybe they win five, maybe they can start piling up some of these things. So the coaching staff is going to have to win them a few games. The coaching staff alone is going to have to win them, scheme them a few games. And it's not just Joe, it's the whole coaching staff. If this all happens, you can see like, okay, well, this guy wins you a few. This guy wins you a few. The coaching staff wins you a few. They're going to be just better than certain teams. So their talent's going to get you to a certain spot. You can get to 45, I think pretty easily. But, and it's not even to be fair, I'm going to argue against myself a little bit. That's not even everything being a best case scenario. Simons has to play nice. He can't give into the awkwardness. Jaylen Brown has to be really good at that number one role. He has to be accepting of the double teams and being able to handle that, which he has shown he can do. I thought last season was his best at it. You also have the potential for, maybe Detroit isn't as good as we think they're going to be. Maybe Orlando still, it still doesn't find it in them. Maybe Atlanta doesn't make a jump that we think they're going to make. If those three teams, especially maybe Milwaukee, you know, if those teams in the middle are just not as good as we're giving them credit for right away, then those could be a few games right there. Bottom line is Celtics, I think, are generally speaking, going to lose to the top teams. Generally speaking, they're going to beat all the bad teams. It's those middle teams. They're going to be in that middle tier. Can they have a winning record against those middle teams? And that's where you're going to get to 45 wins. And those are the reasons why I think they can get to 45. Why won't they get to 45? What's the argument against. I'll come back with that in just a moment. Today's show is brought to you by. Five hour energy caffeine just got a flavor upgrade big time. 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- [24:45]
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Geico Gecko
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Geico Gecko
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Cafe Patron
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John Corrales
Just a little starstruck.
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Cafe Patron
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Geico Gecko
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- [25:11]
John Corrales
You're the best. Get more than just savings. Get more with Geico. Hey, thanks for making Lockdown Celtics your first listen every day. Are you a Boston sports fan? Locked on Red Sox. Locked on Patriots. Locked on Bruins. Are you a fan of other sports? And you've mixed the Celtics into your other favorites? Whatever. Your favorite NFL, mlb, NHL team. We got podcasts for all of those. College women's basketball. We got everything covered. So check it out. Whatever it is, just go locked on whatever your favorite team is. And we got a podcast for you. Same place you found this one. So I think the argument for 45 wins. Pretty good. And I think it's pretty solid. I think I can easily talk myself into this team is going to win 45 games this year, but I'm keeping my expectations tempered for now. Let's get through the preseason and we'll really revisit this at the end of next month before they head into, you know, before we get to October 22nd. I'm recording this on November, on September 16th. So October 16th will be the end of the preseason. So let's just do this again in a month and see if our opinion has changed. See if my opinion has changed, because by that time and we'll have gone through and seen all the workouts and have seen these four games, and maybe, maybe we'll have a better idea of where the Celtics are. So the argument against 45 wins, it starts with, and I hate saying health, but you have to, because Jaylen Brown has not been always the healthiest guy. Right? He's. He hasn't played a full season like last season. He played 63 games. The season before 70, he played 74, but that was in his third season. Since then, he's just missed, you know, a lot of games. So 63 last year, 70. The year before, 67, 66. One of these is the COVID year where it was lower. But it's, it's not like he's injury prone. And I don't want to start that narrative that he's injury prone. I'm just saying that he tends to miss time here and there. Now, the emergence of Anthony Simons and him sticking around for a full season helps to mitigate that. And, and listen, I didn't even talk about Jason Tatum. The potential for him to come back can change a lot of these things. So. But there's, I think with Simons, that can help offset some of the Jalen if he misses time, but that still leaves the Celtics shorthanded. And one like Simons won't be on the floor either for 48 minutes. So it puts pressure on Derrick White, puts pressure on the other guys. Keda is, you know, an injury risk. I don't think. He doesn't. He doesn't. He doesn't strike me as a guy that's going to be durable. So I think there's the potential for Keita to miss some time. If Keita misses time, then you don't have a seven footer. You don't have a shot blocker. If Simons isn't finding a defensive level, if he's still a net negative well, then you're looking at luck. Because if Simons is a net negative and Keita is not on the floor and you're relying on Boucher to do a lot and Luca Garza, who needs to find a defensive level, I think you can start to see why I'm looking at losing streaks, right? So things don't always go perfectly. Seasons tend to have their ups and their downs. What is the Celtics down going to look like? And can they pull out of tailspins? How quickly can they stem losing streaks? That's going to be, I think, a problem for them if anybody gets hurt. And again, you're looking at Jalen Keda and some of these other guys that you just cannot afford an injury. The ascension I talked about, maybe Detroit, Orlando and these other teams aren't as good. What if Detroit is good? What if Detroit's a 50 win team? You can't, you can't all win 45 to 50 games. So somebody has to, somebody has to be bad or mediocre. If Detroit is better, if Orlando is better, right? If Orlando and Detroit are like Detroit was 44 and 38 last year, if Detroit wins 48 to 50 games, if they make an improvement, then they got to beat somebody. If Orlando 41 and 41 last year, if they improve 45 win teams, what, what's, where do those four extra wins come from? Atlanta 40 and 42 last year. If they're better, if they're a 45 win team, where do those five wins come from? They got to beat somebody. And unfortunately a lot of these, a lot of these wins might end up being the Celtics. The Celtics might just lose. Maybe Jalen isn't playing great as the number one guy or isn't always playing great as the number one guy. Maybe goes into a slump, maybe gets into a funk and has a two week stretch where he's just not playing great. And that stretch, if Jalen's not playing great, then the Celtics won't be playing great. There's always the potential for that. Kind of somebody's in a funk. Derek goes into a funk. Derek, I've said I trust Derek implicitly, but he has shown that he goes into funks from time to time. Sam Houser gets into shooting slumps, three point shooters, it tends to be a little bit of a up and down kind of shot. So sometimes you shoot 50 something percent and sometimes you shoot 30% and ultimately he'll be a 40% three point shooter. But the streaks, you know, where, where does that, where does that leave the Celtics? So Much of this is going to be luck. Does the timing of a shooting slump coincide with an injury and coincide with a bad stretch of schedule? Sometimes it's as simple as Jalen sprained an ankle. Oh my God, we're going out west. You got to play Denver and you know Houston and you know the good teams and oh my God, Peyton's in a slump and Sam's in a slump and whatever. It's, it's all of those things, if they happen together, well, you're not going to get the 45 wins because that's going to be a two week stretch of like really bad basketball. Things happen in seasons that even when you're, you have the highest of expectations, bring the number down. So that would be reasons why they don't win 45 games. So much of basketball, it's not even about how good you are. It's, it's luck, it's timing. Did you know I talk about like the sprained ankle, but if the sprained ankle comes before the All Star break, then that's lucky. If the sprained ankle comes during a stretch of five games in seven nights, that's unlucky. And it just sometimes that bad luck can derail a month. And if the Celtics have a bad month, as good as they can be, I think with the talent they have, and they do have some decent talent, a bad month will effectively. Like they're, I don't think they're capable of having a, a month where they have like two or three losses. I don't think they're capable of going off on a big major winning month where it's like, wow, they are the most dominant team in the league, but they are capable of being one of the worst teams in the league if things don't break their way. And having a really bad month. So that's going to be my biggest fear for this upcoming season. Will they hit a skid? How bad will that skid be? And if they do, I just don't see them being good enough to recover just to erase it. Like last year's team still found a way to erase a bad December by being good later on in the year. And this team doesn't, I don't think they have that, that gear. So 45 wins. Is it possible? Certainly, Certainly possible. I, I would even say that after talking this through, I could even amend my, my prediction to say that they'll probably, they, they, they could easily have a winning season this year. Not ready to do that completely yet. Like I said, a month from now on October 16th when the preseason ends. I'd be happy to revisit it after training camp and seeing everything and they're like, hey, let's, let's really take a look at because maybe, maybe they'll be further along or further behind. And so I don't know. Expectations are going to be high. Obviously the Celtics are going to be very confident in themselves, but I still think we should temper our expectations heading in. Tell me what you think. Where do you think the Celtics will fall? Knowing now what this roster is going to be heading into the preseason, where do you think 45 wins? Yes or no? Less more get into the comments section. Share your thoughts. Let me know if you're not subscribed. Become an Every day or join me every Monday through Friday during the season. It could be Saturdays and Sundays too, because I'll be podcasting after games, so this will be more free podcasting. You're going to get anywhere else, so subscribe, get into the comments, share your thoughts and share the podcast. Tell everybody they should be listening to and watching the Lockdown Celtics Podcast. Here on the Lockdown Podcast Network is your team every day and now a.
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