MYSTERY: Why Advanced Stats are WRONG about Jaylen Brown’s MVP Campaign

Summary

Locked On Celtics Podcast Summary

Episode: "MYSTERY: Why Advanced Stats are WRONG about Jaylen Brown’s MVP Campaign"
Host: John Karalis (Boston Sports Journal)
Guest: Tom Westerholm
Date: January 7, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into a puzzling wrinkle in Jaylen Brown’s breakout MVP campaign: why advanced statistics, particularly on/off metrics, don’t seem to favor him despite a season that’s passing both the eye test and conventional stats check. Host John Karalis and guest Tom Westerholm unpack the numbers, clarify the meaning of on/off analytics, and argue for context around Brown’s impact, suggesting advanced stats can often obscure as much as they reveal about a player’s real value.

The show also touches on the concept of "lore" in sports—those stories and narratives that stats can’t measure—and humorously nominates Brown as the "Lore MVP" of the NBA season.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Jaylen Brown’s MVP Case vs. The Analytics Mystery

[02:53–09:24]

• John sets up the episode’s central conundrum: "Jaylen Brown, legit MVP candidate, people. But one thing is weirdly clear. Advanced analytics don’t seem to like Jalen as much as they like other MVP candidates. And I can’t quite figure it out." (Karalis, 02:53)
• The Celtics’ eye test and traditional numbers show Brown as one of the league’s most impactful players. Yet, on-off numbers (team performance with vs. without a player) put him at the bottom among fellow MVP candidates.
• Notably, Jalen’s on-off is a stark -6.1 (Cleaning the Glass), compared to positive marks for most leaders—even among his own teammates and others on MVP lists.

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2. Understanding On-Off Stats and What They Actually Show

[15:51–18:53]

• Tom Westerholm explains common misconceptions: "The on-off is not saying that the Celtics are being outscored by six points when Jalen Brown is on the floor... What they’re saying is the lineups without Jalen are outscoring opponents by more than the lineups with Jalen are outscoring opponents.” (Westerholm, 15:51)
• When Brown is on the court, the Celtics are still outscoring opponents by a solid margin (+5.6 per 100 possessions). That’s not only very good, it’s also better than some other MVP contenders.
• Much of the distortion comes from bench heavy lineups (especially featuring breakout Hugo Gonzalez) posting absurd positive numbers in short minutes.

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3. Why Do Brown’s Advanced Defensive Metrics Look So Poor?

[22:18–29:12]

• The advanced stats ding Brown the most on defense, where opponent points per possession spike when he’s on the floor.
• John notes: "When Jalen himself is a good defender…the numbers with him on the floor, off the floor…the points per possession with him on the floor go up by eight points…That’s the worst on the team." (Karalis, 26:23)
• Tom speculates:
  • Lineups matter. Brown usually faces the toughest opposing units (as a starter/finisher).
  • He’s carrying a massive offensive load, so effort on defense “has to come from somewhere.”
  • Some Celtics defensive struggles (like rebounding lapses) tag all five on the floor, not just individual defenders.
  • Bench/role players can skew numbers in small samples; Brown gets penalized for collective breakdowns, not all of which are his responsibility.

Memorable Quote: “Even a guy who spent half the summer not breathing at the bottom of a pool is still, like, human…If you put a little more into your offense, it’s gotta come from somewhere.”
— Tom Westerholm (27:01)

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4. Flaws of Over-Indexing on Advanced Stats

[29:34–33:48]

• Karalis cautions that analytics can confirm existing biases: "People go onto Cleaning the Glass and go, ‘Oh, Jaylen Brown, the. His -6.1. There it is right there, boom.’"
• Advanced numbers hold players to a perfectionist standard and can’t account for context—like how defensive breakdowns are often a team issue, not individual.
• The quirks of plus/minus: “Jalen happens to be on the floor when a lot of that stuff is happening, when he’s getting 100% of the impact, but what, 20, 30% of it is his fault.” (Karalis, 33:20)

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5. The Debate of ‘Lore’ vs. ‘Analytics’ MVP

[36:02–39:31]

• The hosts jokingly declare Brown the "Lore MVP": “Jalen is the lore MVP of the season. You can keep your analytics MVP…Jalen Brown is the lore MVP, by far.” (Westerholm, 37:20)
• The narrative value: “The Celtics were supposed to be a play-in team, maybe not even a play-in team…now they’re the second seed…He’s got the narrative.” (Karalis, 38:03)
• Advanced metrics might be used as a "tiebreaker," but John asserts: “You can't rely on any one stat. When you're talking about MVP, you got to take the whole thing in totality.” (Karalis, 39:28)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Analytics can ruin lore a lot.” (Karalis, 09:24)
• “He’s clearly the best player [on the Celtics] and very clearly should be a legitimate MVP candidate.” (Karalis, 19:54)
• “Don’t punish Jalen for the bench being good.” (Westerholm, 39:31)
• The "death of lore" tangent: “Problem with these camera phones is they kill off the lore. There’s no more anymore.” (Westerholm, 09:03)
• On confirmation bias in analytics debates: “It is a confirmation bias…they just got to find the number that tells them they’re right.” (Karalis, 19:54)
• Lore vs analytics, summing up the Celtics’ MVP race in 2026: “You can have your analytics MVP... Jalen Brown is the lore MVP.” (Westerholm, 37:20)

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Important Timestamps

• 02:53: Main episode start — Jaylen Brown’s MVP candidacy and analytics skepticism
• 09:24: Segue from “lore” into how analytics can spoil “stories”
• 15:51: Tom’s clear explanation of on/off stats and common misreadings
• 22:18–29:12: The defensive question: why do Brown's numbers fail to match his reputation?
• 33:48: How lineups and context can warp individual advanced stats
• 36:02: The “Lore MVP” debate and the case for narrative
• 39:31: Final word — Don’t over-index on advanced stats, appreciate the full picture

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Episode Tone

The conversation is lively, good-naturedly skeptical of overly technical analysis, and brimming with Celtics pride (“Jalen Brown is the Lore MVP”). The hosts blend stats nerdery with story-rich commentary, appealing both to analytics heads and fans who value narrative over numbers.

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For Celtics fans and NBA observers, this episode offers a clear, nuanced look at the shortcomings of advanced stats—especially on-off data—when evaluating MVP candidates like Jaylen Brown. Karalis and Westerholm champion context, narrative, and real impact over raw spreadsheet numbers, making a passionate plea for considering the bigger picture in basketball analysis.

Transcript

[A]

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Savings with three plus lines include third via monthly bill credits. Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit required. Jaylen Brown A legitimate MVP candidate, but the advanced numbers don't like him. What we're going to try to explain it right now on the Lockdown Celtics podcast. Locked on Celtics Pod, Home of the winners and welcome back to the Lockdown Celtics Podcast right here on the Lockdown Podcast network where it's your team every day. Your team is the Boston Celtics and I talk about them every Monday through Friday plus bonus podcast when they play on weekends, so make sure you're subscribed. Wherever you get your podcast, watch a show on YouTube, get into the comment section, share your thoughts with me. I'm John Corrales, beat writer for Boston Sports Journal. I've been covering the team for about 20 years doing this podcast for 10, and I've written a couple books about the team as well. Today's show is brought to you by FanDuel before tip off on Fridays check out the FanDuel app and see what's dropping at NBA Happy Hour every Friday from 6 to 7:30pm Eastern. Jaylen Brown, legit MVP candidate, people. I've seen people talk online. I'm not sure if they're voters or not. Some people have them as high as number two. Some people have them down a little bit lower. But one thing is weirdly clear. Advanced analytics don't seem to like Jalen as much as they like other MVP candidates. And I can't quite figure it out. So I've enlisted the help of Tom Westerholm to help me figure it out. Tom?

[B]

Well, I mean, anytime there's, you know, Mr. Kramer, my 10th grade math teacher would be very pleased to hear that when analytics are, are involved, you got to get the mathematician in, and that's me. No, no, no. Notoriously good at math. So I'm, I'm glad you're not good.

[A]

At talking, so you have to be good at something.

[B]

That's got to be good at something. Intro is very long, right? Like, I'm, I'm, I've written a bunch of books. I've done all this stuff. You should just say I once did a dunk contest against D. Brown.

[A]

That is true. I did do a dunk contest against D. Brown.

[B]

I mean, that's pretty good. That's a.

[A]

Okay, so. Okay, so, people, if you don't, if you don't follow me on social media. I posted yesterday at the game, Dee Brown was there, and I was like, oh, my God, D. Brown. It's the first time I've ever been in a building with Dee Brown. Like, I was showing, I was showing Steve Bullpet. I like, I gotta go find Dee Brown. And I showed him this picture that I had from 1991 when I was in a dunk contest. D. Brown had just won the dunk. The dunk contest. And that spring summer, he did a mall tour around New England doing dunk contests to promote Reebok for, you know, and, and in North Attleborough, Massachusetts, at the Emerald Square Mall, I was among the participants of a dunk contest with the Brown. And I had a picture in the paper. It was very cool. Me and D. It said two dunkers and it had all that stuff in there. So, yeah, I got, thanks to, you know, thanks to the Celtics. I. They kind of got me into your. Jeff Twist. Got me in with D before the game and I showed him the picture. He was like, oh, my God. We were just talking about this mall tour the other day. And so he Took a picture with me and I got to recreate the picture in the newspaper. So it's very cool. It was very cool. I mean, this job gets me some really cool things. Like, who was. I don't know. I just saw so many cool things that happened. I. This is, this is among, among the. So very cool.

[B]

What a great piece of Coralis lore. Like, that's, I mean, that's, that's a good one. That's a, that's a banger.

[A]

I. So I, I had three dunks that I, I, I made two and missed one. I had one where, like, it's lame now, but back then it was like a thing where back to the basket, bounce the ball between your legs, turn it bounces off the backboard, go up and catch it and dunk two hands. Um, I did one where I tapped the backboard and dunked. And then I tried one where I had two balls and I tried to dunk the two balls. And I think if I recall correctly, I actually made the left handed one because I was so worried about making the lefty and I missed the right one, which was weird. But funny story about the. So I went up and I tapped the backboard and I just barely, like, barely get the ball over the rim. Okay, so it's a dunk. D. Brown gets the ball and just loads up, double taps the backboard, cocks it behind his head, and boom. And I was like, oh, my God, that was just insane because I swear he like double tapped, cocked it, paused, like, pointed at people in the crowd. Like, it was just, was so jarring that, like, me, I'm like thinking like, oh, yeah, I'm in this dunk contest and I barely get like a little like, tap dunk. And he's like, boom. I was like, that, that is the difference right there between, you know, little high school, like wannabe and D. Brown, dunk champion. So. But yeah, that was a long time. It's 1991.

[B]

What was it? What was his best dunk in that?

[A]

That. I think that was it.

[B]

That was it. Yeah. Yeah.

[A]

I don't recall. I don't recall a lot of it. My memory gets hazy that, but that, that's the one that stood out to.

[B]

Me because it was like a bunch beforehand. Like, were you like, were you guys getting yourself ready?

[A]

No, like, I mean, I didn't have, like, I was in it, but I wasn't exactly like a dunk contest dunker, you know what I mean? Like, I could jump, I could dunk, I could do a couple of Things, but I was like, it's not like I was out there, you know, looking like Jalen or anything like that. I wasn't like, spinning and twisting and doing all that stuff. Like, those three that I had were basically the three I had in my bag. Like, that was. There was not much. Like, as I got older, I had, like, a little bit more. Yeah. You know, I added a little bit more like, in college. But I still, even then, was not, like, it wasn't exactly a highlight dunker. I was a power dunker.

[B]

You weren't making Gary Payton. You weren't Jordan Kilgannon making Gary Payton do the face like that. That famous meme face.

[A]

No, no, no, no, no, no. My. My bread and butter when it came. Came to dunks was like, two foot. Like, two foot plant, go up. I was more like, trying to be like, Dominique, get out of the post and, like, get a. Yeah, that. That kind of stuff. Drop step, come back, just power and try to embarrass somebody. Like, that was my. That was my jam. Like, going up there and trying to spin and twist and all that stuff. I was like. But I did it, and it was fun. Okay, so, yeah, that's. That's the explanation of what I posted out on my social media. Just. That's. That's like the. The worst part is 1991, there was no cell phones. There's no, like, proof. I just got this little clip in, in the paper that I finished third in the dunk contest. Nah, counterpoint, though.

[B]

Like, if there were cell phones, then people would be seeing you get a little tap dunk, and then D. Brown going tap, tap, tap, tap, tap, point slam. Like.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[B]

No, now. Now you're in the paper with D. Brown as dunk contest.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Against NBA player. So actually, I think. I think the arrow works in your favor.

[A]

Yeah, the lore.

[B]

Now it's the lore.

[A]

Now I could just tell this problem.

[B]

With these camera phones is they kill off the lore. There's no more anymore.

[A]

There's too much proof. It probably didn't look as. It didn't look as good as I think in my head, my dunks looked pretty good. In reality. There's like. I don't know.

[B]

We might be on to something here, man. Like the. The death of the. Of lore might be the. The one. One of the main problems in society. And I like that.

[A]

I like that. We need more lore. We need more lore. You know what ruins lore? Advanced analytics. Analytics can ruin lore a lot. Like, I mean, dear's Jalen Brown Sitting here as a legitimate MVP candidate and we are looking at advanced. The discussion has been had a lot lately because he had a 50 point game against the Clippers and like, okay, no, no one's really gonna hold the game. You know, this last game against him because, like, okay, it's whatever. He had a bad shooting out against the Bulls. Like, I really, I do not care about that.

[B]

He was in LA like 24 hours before that game.

[A]

Like, yeah. And he still did other stuff. He still rebound. He still passed. He's like, it's not like it was a lack of effort. He just. The legs weren't there. Everybody has like a stinker shooting night. Big deal, who cares? But the, the analytics seem to seem to like, give. I don't want to say the haters because I don't want to paint everybody who disagrees with a take as a hater. I don't like that. But the people who are advocating, like, it's not Jalen Brown or Jalen Brown is not exactly close. They're. They have a lot of ammunition. So the, the MVP odds are still. Let me see. I gotta call these up on FanDuel. Now. Jalen has moved up in the MVP odds, by the way. He's. He was at 81. Now he's at 41. So I think the 50 point game had a lot of people putting their money down. So it's in order. SGA Luca Cade, Jalen, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey, Donovan Mitchell, Kawhi Leonard. And you can get down to Steph Curry, Alperson Goon, Kevin Durant. In that group, everybody is a positive except for Jalen Brown. Jalen Brunson's like, It's like when we talk about on off, Jalen Brunson is like minus 0.2. So he's basically even. Jalen Brown and Anthony Edwards are both minus six and change according to Cleaning the glass. Now, everyone else is a positive, and I think only like Donovan Mitchell, Kawhi Leonard are the two guys who are positives that lead their teams. Everyone else is a positive, but they're not quite at the top. And I bring that up because maybe that gives you a little sense of the on off numbers. Are they. Are they a little skewed? Are there, Is there something going on with the on off numbers? Because Jalen Brown is having this incredible season. He's. The eye test tells you that he's great, but when you look at on off, Ugo plus 18.7, Anthony plus 8.1, Keda 5.6 D. White 3.7 then you get to Baylor Shireman minus 1 Jordan Walsh minus 1.4 Sam Houser minus 3 Peyton Pritchard minus 3.7 Luca Garza minus 4.2 then Jalen Brown minus 6.1. Way down that list.

[B]

Why?

[A]

Why is he at the bottom of that list? Let's take a break and come back and try to answer the question why do the advanced analytics hate Jaylen Brown so much? Today's show is brought to you by FanDuel. Fridays already feel different during during basketball season. FanDuel's making them feel even better. Every Friday night before the game tips off, FanDuel gives fans a new way to kick off the weekend with NBA Happy Hour. NBA Happy Hour is your official pre game, a limited time window where special offers drop inside that FanDuel app before the action starts. Every Friday from 6 to 7:30pm Eastern, you can come over and open up the FanDuel app and you get boosts, bonuses, other surprises. So check it out. Very easy to get the weekly specials before tip off and make a move before the window closes. It's right before the games. It's right before the weekend starts, so you get a little extra energy, a little extra something on Friday nights without overthinking it. So before tip off, check out the FanDuel app. See what's dropping during NBA Happy Hour every Friday from 6 to 7:30pm Eastern. When you log in, make sure you're using the tools that they have available to you. As soon as you log in, it'll ask you to set your budget. Do that. Whatever you can afford to lose. In case you have a cold night, a cold streak, you it'll protect you so you can gamble responsibly. You don't want to go overboard. FanDuel will help you. They'll do that and then you can enjoy Happy Hour NBA Happy hour only on FanDuel, the official sportsbook partner of the NBA. Locked on. Listeners asked for more and now you can get it with the Everydayer Club.

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Join the Everydayer club [e-mail] everydayerclub or visit the link in the show notes. That's lockedonpodcast.com everydayerclub part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day thank you for making Lockdown Celtics your first listen every day. Thank you for making the Lockdown podcast network the number one sports podcast network on the planet. This is the Lockdown Celtics podcast, the number one Celtics podcast on the planet.

[B]

If you're an everyday.

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Thank you for being with me every Monday through Friday. You want to join the everyday club, go to lockdown celtics.supercast.com for five bucks a month. You get ad free audio on all major podcast platforms. You get access to our Discord server. You get merchandise drops, all of that stuff. Lockdown celtics.supercast.com Five bucks a month, or if you want to pay up front, 50 bucks for the year. All right, Tom, I'm. I'm a little confused and maybe not shocked because advanced analytics have never seemed to like Jaylen Brown like that. But every other number, everything else that you look at, it's the scoring's up. Everything is up for Jalen. He's playing, without a doubt, the best basketball of his life. And the Celtics wouldn't be where they are without Jalen. Why is it that his on off is so bad?

[B]

Well, I think one thing we need to do, right, is define what the on off is, right? Because the on off is not saying that the Celtics, like, are being outscored by six points when Jalen Brown is on the floor, right? What they're saying is, like, the lineups without Jalen are outscoring opponents by more than the lineups with Jalen are outscoring opponents, right? And I think that's a really easy mistake that a lot of people make. So if you isolate it, right, and you say, okay, how are the Celtics doing when Jalen Brown is on the floor? It gets a lot more friendly for him, right? It's like when Jaylen Brown is on the floor. According to cleaning the glass on court, the Celtics are outscoring teams by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, which is like, it's good. It's like 76 percentile, incidentally. And I think quite notably, it's better than Jalen Brunson, right? Knicks lineups with Jalen Brunson are outscoring teams by 4.6, and it's a lot better than Luka Doncic. Laker lineups with Luka Doncic are outscoring opponents by 2.8. So, like, that right there is, I think, a big. A big part of the problem, I think a lot of people don't, like, are misinterpreting what that lineup data says, because it's not. It is not saying that the Celtics are being outscored when Jalen's on the floor. I think one thing that's happening is that for.

[A]

On.

[B]

On the Celtics end is that Hugo Gonzalez is messing things up for people. Right. His lineups are crushing. Like, there's. I pulled this up. Let me find it real quick here. So the. The most used Hugo Gonzalez lineup is Derrick White and Freddy Simons, Hugo, Sam Houser and keda. It's only 46 possessions, but it is outscored opponents by 68.8 points per 100 possessions. Like, there's a lot of lineups like that with Ugo where it's just 68.8 in those 46 possessions. Yeah. So it's like. It's stupid, right? It's a small sample size, but it's just a stupid number that it's outscoring opponents by. It doesn't. It's not even like statistically reasonable. Right. As a whole, like his lineups in total, like the 993 possessions, the Celtics are outscoring opponents by 11.8. Right. So that number being higher anytime Jalen's not on the floor and Ugo is and that. And one of those bench lineups outscores an opponent, Jalen's number goes down. And I, I think that's a big part of it here. That's not saying that. Again, I just want to be abundantly clear. The Celtics are not being outscored when Jalen is on the floor. They are outscoring opponents by a fairly solid margin, especially when you take into account the fact that Jalen starts so he's always facing the opponent's best, you know, opposition, and he finishes. So he's always facing the opponent's best lineups. So I think that's. That's the place to start for me. It's just like, really understand that we are. That he's not being outscored. The only people that are outscoring him are the bench lineups who are facing not as good players, which is important.

[A]

It's an important distinction to make. But it is still. It's still not. When we're talking about MVP case, the people who are going to make the case against Jalen Brown are going to say, yeah, that's fine, Tom, but these other guys are still positives. When you know that the. The difference between what Jaylen Brown is on the floor versus not on the floor is still a negative number. And the. The other guys are positive numbers, so they are making more of an impact is the Theory. I, this is where like the advanced numbers you can make, you can make stats, say kind of anything that you want. There's no doubt, Let me be clear. There's no doubt in my mind that Jalen Brown is the most impactful player on the floor for the Celtics. They. It's somebody.

[B]

He's the most valuable player for the Celtics.

[A]

That's right. Some might, that might be one way to phrase it. They, they are nowhere near this good without Jalen Brown. They are a lottery team without Jalen Brown. He is clearly the like, best player and very clearly should be a legitimate MVP candidate. And I think, I think what ends up happening is a lot of times these numbers come up and people make a big deal of them, like you said, without the proper context, because they didn't expect Jaylen Brown to be there. And so what ends up happening is, well, I didn't expect it, so there must be something wrong here. And so I'm not going to sit there and be like, wow, this, this is unexpected and I'm going to embrace it. It's. Huh, why are these like the Phoenix Suns are, you know, a surprisingly good team and their defense is good, but I don't buy into the Phoenix sun. So something's got to be weird here. And like, I'm still right. I just got to find the numbers that are going to tell me that I'm right. And for. People go, they go on to cleaning the glass and they go, oh, Jaylen brown, the. His -6.1. There it is right there. Boom. Everyone else, I go through everybody else on that, that list and it's him and Anthony Edwards. You can say, yeah, maybe Anthony Edwards isn't as impactful, you know, when it comes to, to winning basketball games, which is also kind of crazy because he is obviously very impactful. So I do think there's a little bit of cherry picking and using it to justify people's kind of like, I don't know, I don't say biases, but it's kind like it is a confirmation bias. But when you look at the numbers here, the thing that does stand out is the offensive numbers are fine. The defensive numbers are worse. It's all on the defensive side where, you know, the points per possession is, you know, eight points higher when Jalen is on the floor. Why is that when Jalen himself is a, a very good defender and you know, Bobby Marks put the stat out there that when Jalen's the closest defender, opponents are shooting like the second worst field goal percentage or effective field goal percentage in the league. I forget who was first, but it.

[B]

Was it Case Wallace from the Case.

[A]

Okay. Yes. So which.

[B]

That lines up with the eye test.

[A]

Yeah. Right, right, right. So. So again, like, okay, if Jalen himself is a good defender and Namish caters on the floor a lot of times with Jalen, he's a plus defender. Why, why are the defensive numbers not as good? I would think the defensive numbers should be good with Jalen. And this is, this is where you boil it down. Like, the offensive numbers are fine. You know, they're totally fine. Like, they're good with Jalen on the floor. For some reason, the defense tends to suffer. Let's, let's come back and try to figure out why. Why is the impact with Jalen on the floor seemingly showing up on the defensive end? We'll be right back. Today's show is brought to you by Rocket Money. You want to make the most out of your finances, and that can feel overwhelming. You get subscriptions that you forget about, bills that keep piling up and trying to figure all that out, where your money goes each month, it's easy to feel like you're losing control. Who has time to track every transaction or hunt down hidden fees? Well, Rocket Money does because they're the personal finance app that helps you take control. It finds and cancels your unwanted subscriptions, monitors your spending, and helps you lower your bill so you can grow your savings. You can check out Rocket. You don't even realize how many subscriptions you know. It's especially a problem for me because I have to keep subscribing to different papers all around the league, you know, Orlando and Atlanta, and everybody's charging me money. I kind of forget to cancel things when I don't need to be there anymore. So Rocket Money is going to help me track those down and cancel those. Automatic transaction categorization is a game changer. You can see exactly where the money goes each month. You can set budgets, goals, personalized highlights, personalized insights, and you get real time alerts for large transactions, upcoming bills, and low balances. It even consolidates your checking, savings, loans, investments into a single dashboard so you get a clear view of your entire financial picture. Let Rocket Money help you reach your financial goals faster. [e-mail] LockedOn that's RocketMoney.com LockedOn that's Rocketmoney.com LockedOn Today's show is also brought to you by prize picks. Whether you're starting a new routine or jumping into player projections for the first time, trying Something new can feel like a challenge. With Prize Picks, it's always good. It always feels good to be right. With high pressure football matchups every weekend now that the playoffs are here. Elite hoops action almost every night. The action never slows down. Prize Picks lets you stay in control. It's the daily fantasy app that makes watching sports even more exciting by letting you build lineups based on player projections. No drafts, no waiting, no just, just go pick more or less and play your way. It's easy to start. It's simple to navigate. Through the app you can get flexibility with options like Flex Pay where you can still get paid even if one pick misses. That's the nice option. And the new early payouts feature is a game changer because if a player starts hot, you can cash out before the game ends. Just guarantee yourself a little something, a little bit of a return. Download the Prize Picks app today. Use the code locked on NBA and get 50 in lineups after you play your first five dollar lineup. That's lockdown NBA to get $50 in lineups after your first $5 lineup prize picks. It's good to be right. Thank you for making Lockdown Celtics your first listen every day. Go check out Locked on NBA game night. We're recording this before the games because I will be hosting game night covering all of the games in the. In the NBA. So check it out. It's me, it's Hayes this, this time around. So we're going to go have some fun covering the entire league on NBA game night. Subscribe. You'll also get the Lockdown NBA podcast which covers all the big storylines in the league. One of the big storylines is Jaylen Brown being an MVP candidate, but people are going to shoot him down and the defensive numbers, Tom, seem to be dragging him down. I, I think he's a little bit of a victim of the like the Celtics struggle. Like the defense has been a struggle this year anyway. It's more of a struggle than in the past. I, I don't think it's Jalen's fault, but it's the numbers with him on the floor, off the floor. Like the numbers don't. This is, this is where the numbers really seem to hurt him because the, the, the points per possession with him on the floor go. Go by eight points and that's, that's the worst on the team. So I don't know. Do you have any kind of inkling as to why the points per possession would go up like that with Jalen on the floor?

[B]

Not really. I I think, I mean, sometimes numbers are a little noisy. Right? Sometimes you. And I think that, I do think that there's something to the lineups that Jalen plays against are tougher than the lineups that other players play against. Right. He plays at the hardest time. He also plays a lot of minutes. So it's not, that's not a perfect one to one because he faces a lot of different lineups throughout the course of a game. So it's not perfect, I think. I mean, look, I, I think that, I think Jalen is a really, really good individual defender. I think that the way he, you know, defends and when he takes a match up personally and he really gets after it, it is. Yeah. Then I mean, he's one of the best in the NBA, right? Like we, we. I think he and he and Tatum, between the two of them, they single handedly talked about that changed the way they single handedly did irreparable damage. Well, I guess double handedly between the two of them, but they did irreparable damage to the Dallas Mavericks franchise. Right. Like they're the reason that Luka Doncic is in Los Angeles now. They changed the way Luca Doncic is discussed for, you know, 18 some odd months like that. He was, yeah, like Jalen as an individual defender, when he really takes a matchup personally and seriously is just a menace. He's really tough. He's not always the most engaged defender of all time. And I think too, you know, we've talked this season a lot about the effort that Jalen has to put into the offensive end to do all the stuff that he does. Even a guy who spent half the summer not breathing at the bottom of a pool is still like human. Like he still has to. Like he can't just go 100 the entire game. There are sliders here. Like, that's one of the most realistic things about a video game is that is like the slider thing. If you put a little bit more into your offense, it's gotta come from somewhere. And I think for Jalen, yeah, it probably has come a little bit at the expense of the defensive end. And the good news is, you know, Celtics have one of the best offenses in the NBA. You know, they're second according to cleaning the glass. Like he's, he is more than doing his job on that end. The defense is suffering a little bit, but I mean, they're in second in the East. I don't know. It's working.

[A]

Yeah, it's working, but so I think there are a couple of things at play here. I think the. Well, they had. The recent stretch of. They've lost. They lost four or five first quarters in a row, and that was all like. Jalen Brown's on the floor for almost all of that. Yeah. You know, is that all his fault? No, this is.

[B]

This is.

[A]

I think what we're seeing is a little bit of a problem with individual numbers in a team sport. You know, Peyton Pritchard. At the beginning of the third quarter against the. The Clippers, I was like, you got to get Peyton Pritchard off the floor, and people roasted me. But at the time, Kawhi was, you know, targeting him. They were. They were like, he was the pigeon. And, well, Jalen Brown's on the floor for that. And you look at all of these negative numbers on the defensive side, it's Jordan Walsh, who's been a starter, Sam Houser, who, you know, gets a fair amount of minutes to get those together. Peyton Pritchard, who's a starter. Jalen Brown is, you know, has been on the floor with a lot of those guys. Even Josh Minot in limited minutes, he's been on the floor with, like, a lot of these guys. And, like, why is Jordan Walsh, like, we look at. Jordan Walsh is like an all NBA defender when he's at his best. And, like, he's the. The defensive numbers are still not so great with him on the floor. I think there's just between, you know, look, maybe you did start slow. Maybe you did start slow in the first quarter. Maybe, you know, there was an early part of the season where they were having trouble closing games, and they would lose leads, but they would still find a way to win, but they would lose leads. And that all goes into the negative side for Jaylen Brown. And so I think when you look at the advanced numbers, it puts a little too much pressure on these guys to be perfect all the time. And it. It takes. It puts a lot on Jalen. That also applies to, like I said, if Jordan, Peyton, and Jalen are on the floor at the same time, and Jordan's getting roasted and Peyton's getting roasted, and Jalen. Maybe Jalen didn't come over and help, but they're all getting dinged for that kind of stuff. So I. I understand, like, other guys. These other guys, they're positives no matter what. But I. I do think that in this situation, Jalen, the numbers. The numbers have always been unkind to him, you know, And I do. I don't think. I don't think that's just The Jalen Brown problem. I think there are circumstances involved with. With all of this stuff. And like, when you look at why do the analytics work against Jalen Brown? I just, I. I think that he's had to carry such a load that, you know, a team that we knew coming in was not going to be great defensively, and he's out there trying to outscore everybody and be such a big offensive kind of plus that even when you're giving up, like, is it Jalen's fault that they keep giving up all those offensive rebounds? You know, when they had all of those problems? Some of it is because he's got a box out from the wing, but those are all those second chance points are all coming off of Jaylen Brown as well. Like the plus minus stuff that everybody who's on the floor, and Jalen happens to be on the floor when a lot of that stuff is happening, when he's getting 100% of the impact, but what, 20, 30% of it is his fault. So it. It's not like. It's not like the most glowing kind of like, oh, this is not a big deal. Some of it is his fault, but mostly it's. The Celtics are not constructed well enough to be a positive defensively for the most part. The guys who are positives defensively are. Are doing it in, like, you know, like you said, the Ugo, you know, off the bench, kind of weird, kind of crazy, like, runs, and he goes on these crazy. Just like 2, 3, 4, you know, high energy plays, and he gets a whole. It's like he. Jalen's the guy at the slot machine just putting in the money, putting in the money, putting in the money. And maybe at the end he comes out, like, a little bit ahead and say, okay, I'm done. Ugo comes in, throws five bucks in, pulls the arm, and like, oh, jackpot. Oh, you're like, oh, okay. Well, you know, you happen to come in and have a big impact in a short amount of time, and the numbers look great, but Jalen's been doing so much of the work that he. He kind of gets dinged for stuff that's not his fault.

[B]

Well, it's more like. It's more like everybody pitched in, like, a certain amount of money for, like, you know, the mega millions, and they just decided they were gonna all split it equally. And like, Hugo put in, like, a little bit of money and Jaylin a lot of money, and they all get the same amount of the, you know.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So.

[B]

So, yeah, Ugo's rate of return is a little better. I mean, one thing that I think is like, kind of sums up this point a little bit is like, you know, your point, like every. Everything kind of works in tandem. So Anthony Simons, when he's on the floor with Jalen, right, the offense is three points per 100 possessions better, and the defense is three points per 100 possessions worse when he's on the floor with Jalen versus off. So it's like. And then, you know, if. If just Jalen is on the floor, that number kind of meets right back in the middle. So it's like there's all these factors that are happening around Jalen at the same time, like you're saying, right? It's like you put a good. You put a good offensive player and a bad defender in, and it all just. It all just kind of comes back to that same balance. Yeah, like the, The. The defense is a very much a team thing, and Jalen is a part of that team and he. He puts some stuff on the table and he. And he, you know, takes some stuff off from time to time. And, And I mean, I think, look, when. Really what it comes down to at this current juncture, it's like, I don't think there's a whole lot of people who would pick Jalen over SGA anyway. Right? So it's like, really what we're doing when we're talking about the MVP is arguing about, like, you know, who's the second best player in the NBA, right? Like, that's, that's really what it kind of. And even that is flawed because the second best player, like the second best player in the NBA is probably Shay Gilgis Alexander, right? The first best player in the NBA can't even qualify for MVP because he's going to miss a bunch of time. So, like, I don't know. It's. It. I. I think it's interesting to have these conversations, but also at the same time, like, Jalen's probably not going to win the MVP one way or the other. And, and really what this is is people on social media having an opportunity to yell at each other about the Boston Celtics, which really is their absolute favorite pastime. I get it.

[A]

Yes. Yes. But look, I'll just throw this out there. Oklahoma City Thunder just lost the. The Charlotte Hornets.

[B]

They did.

[A]

They're five and five in their last ten. They've lost two in a row. They're. They. They're. They've come back down to earth just the tiniest bit. I mean, they're still in orbit, but they're not as high in orbit.

[B]

Yeah, right.

[A]

I'm not saying that they're going to like, crater or anything like that, but I think there's a little bit of reality setting in for the Thunder and, you know, a little bit of reality for them. A little bit of continued excellence for the Celtics and Shea having won it last year, if the Thunder hit a little bit of a, you know, a slump here and they come back to the pack and now everything's kind of evened out. Does. Does he get the same shine and does Jalen do people start to be like, look, the Thunder got bored and SGA can't pull them out of their boredom. But here's Jalen still doing this and you know, whatever their record ends up being as you get into March, like it. I don't know.

[B]

I'm not.

[A]

I'm not saying that he's gonna win the mvp, but I think you can make a key. I think you can make an argument for him depending on how things go moving forward.

[B]

Jalen is. I, in my opinion, I. I will go and I will go to the mat on this one. Jalen is the lore MVP of the season. Like, it's Jalen the like as far as, like all the players that are not on the Celtics anymore. Jason Tatum out. Celtics still ends like. Jalen Brown is the lower MVP by far. You can. You can keep your shag. You'll just Alexander and his like outscoring opponents by 16 points for 100 possessions when he's on the floor. You can have that one. You can have your analytics mvp, your big analytics. Jalen Brown is the Laura mvp, which makes me wonder.

[A]

And it'll be my final point. All of those people who are like, yeah, narratives have to matter when it comes to the mvp. Well, who has the narrative?

[B]

It's clearly Jalen.

[A]

Jaylen Brown has the narrative, right? Like he's got. The Celtics were supposed to be a playing team, maybe not even a play in team. People were picking to win 35 games. You know, Jason's out, all these guys, they. All these trades and. And now here they are here they're second seed right now in January. Look who's. He's got the narrative. The only other.

[B]

The only other even contender on that front is Cade, right? Like it's Cade and Jalen. Those are the two.

[A]

Those would be the two. Those would be the two. And like even the Pistons wins. I'm sorry, Jalen's wins a hundred percent. 100%. Because you know SGA. If the Thunder starts to slip a little bit, then that kind of goes away. Luca, people are talking about. Well, they don't have Austin Reeves, so they're not going to be with the Luca one. I'm sorry, you're talking about, like, you're. You're LUCA. You got LeBron, and you're telling me Austin Reeves is going to make the difference? Like, come on, man. So that the. The narrative belongs to Jalen. He has the narrative, and he has the numbers 8. Except for those pesky advanced stats where the people are going to start, like, dig, dig, dig, dig, dig. Oh, I need tiebreakers. I need tiebreakers. Any tiebreakers? Oh, oh, there it is. Here it is. Those big blue negatives on cleaning the glass. There it is. Oh, I can't give it to him. Look at him. He's a negative. When he's all, you know, like, no, no, no, no, no. Like, you can't rely on any one stat. When you're talking about mvp, you got to take the whole thing in totality.

[B]

Don't punish Jalen for the bench being good. I'm sorry, don't, like, give it to whoever, but don't punish Jalen for the bench being good.

[A]

There you go. We'll leave it there. All right, Tom, Good strong point to end on. Thanks, buddy.

[B]

Appreciate you, man.

[A]

Appreciate you. And I appreciate you listening, watching, and enjoying the show. Here's what I'm gonna do. If you've gone this far, I'm gonna play the Open for you one more time, the full Open. Because people have been, like, getting on me because I shorten the Open. Look, we have to shorten the Open. Like, I can't be doing 30, 40 seconds of music ahead because that's. Unfortunately, that. It's just. That's the way of the world. So I had to do it. I'm sorry to do it, but what I'm going to do, get your screen recordings ready, get your phones, whatever, something to record it ready. I'm going to say goodbye, and then I'm going to play the Open one more time for you to listen to. And if you want, before you click the podcast, just play the Open for yourself and then play my podcast, and there you go. So thank you for listening, thank you for watching, thank you for sharing this podcast. Tell everybody they should be listening to and watching the Lockdown Celtics podcast here on the Lockdown Podcast Network. It's your team every day.

[B]

Huh? Yep, yep.

[A]

Be sound ready. It's the seas. Who else could it be? What they gon say now screaming like J.T. corralis. Recap the madness every game, every practice, prime time Depp and D White on the sideline Rennin Jace how we started raising banners how we finished locked on Celtics pod Home of the winners, baby Calling all sightseers and selfie takers. Welcome to Texas, where a day at our hiking trails will lead to a lifetime of memories and family road trips become family legends where thrill seekers make a splash into spring fed pools and picky eaters will clean their plates. This is your invitation to visit Texas and see it for yourself. Visit traveltexas.com and plan your family's trip today. Let's Texas Finding ways to be financially savvy is a smart move. And knowing you could be saving money for the things you really want, like that dream home or new ride is a great feeling. That's why the State Farm Personal Price Plan can help you save when you choose to bundle home in auto bundling. Just another way to save with the personal price plan. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. Ever walk past a place for rent and wish you could just take a peek inside, Maybe even explore the layout? Envision the natural light streaming through the windows, or plan where your vinyl record collection would go. At apartments.com you can. With tools like their 3D virtual tours, you can see the exact unit you could be living in. Really envision yourself in your new home with Apartments.com, the place to find a place.