Locked On Celtics Podcast Summary

Episode: "MYSTERY: Why Advanced Stats are WRONG about Jaylen Brown’s MVP Campaign"
Host: John Karalis (Boston Sports Journal)
Guest: Tom Westerholm
Date: January 7, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into a puzzling wrinkle in Jaylen Brown’s breakout MVP campaign: why advanced statistics, particularly on/off metrics, don’t seem to favor him despite a season that’s passing both the eye test and conventional stats check. Host John Karalis and guest Tom Westerholm unpack the numbers, clarify the meaning of on/off analytics, and argue for context around Brown’s impact, suggesting advanced stats can often obscure as much as they reveal about a player’s real value.

The show also touches on the concept of "lore" in sports—those stories and narratives that stats can’t measure—and humorously nominates Brown as the "Lore MVP" of the NBA season.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Jaylen Brown’s MVP Case vs. The Analytics Mystery

[02:53–09:24]

• John sets up the episode’s central conundrum: "Jaylen Brown, legit MVP candidate, people. But one thing is weirdly clear. Advanced analytics don’t seem to like Jalen as much as they like other MVP candidates. And I can’t quite figure it out." (Karalis, 02:53)
• The Celtics’ eye test and traditional numbers show Brown as one of the league’s most impactful players. Yet, on-off numbers (team performance with vs. without a player) put him at the bottom among fellow MVP candidates.
• Notably, Jalen’s on-off is a stark -6.1 (Cleaning the Glass), compared to positive marks for most leaders—even among his own teammates and others on MVP lists.

2. Understanding On-Off Stats and What They Actually Show

[15:51–18:53]

• Tom Westerholm explains common misconceptions: "The on-off is not saying that the Celtics are being outscored by six points when Jalen Brown is on the floor... What they’re saying is the lineups without Jalen are outscoring opponents by more than the lineups with Jalen are outscoring opponents.” (Westerholm, 15:51)
• When Brown is on the court, the Celtics are still outscoring opponents by a solid margin (+5.6 per 100 possessions). That’s not only very good, it’s also better than some other MVP contenders.
• Much of the distortion comes from bench heavy lineups (especially featuring breakout Hugo Gonzalez) posting absurd positive numbers in short minutes.

3. Why Do Brown’s Advanced Defensive Metrics Look So Poor?

[22:18–29:12]

• The advanced stats ding Brown the most on defense, where opponent points per possession spike when he’s on the floor.
• John notes: "When Jalen himself is a good defender…the numbers with him on the floor, off the floor…the points per possession with him on the floor go up by eight points…That’s the worst on the team." (Karalis, 26:23)
• Tom speculates:
  • Lineups matter. Brown usually faces the toughest opposing units (as a starter/finisher).
  • He’s carrying a massive offensive load, so effort on defense “has to come from somewhere.”
  • Some Celtics defensive struggles (like rebounding lapses) tag all five on the floor, not just individual defenders.
  • Bench/role players can skew numbers in small samples; Brown gets penalized for collective breakdowns, not all of which are his responsibility.

Memorable Quote: “Even a guy who spent half the summer not breathing at the bottom of a pool is still, like, human…If you put a little more into your offense, it’s gotta come from somewhere.”
— Tom Westerholm (27:01)

4. Flaws of Over-Indexing on Advanced Stats

[29:34–33:48]

• Karalis cautions that analytics can confirm existing biases: "People go onto Cleaning the Glass and go, ‘Oh, Jaylen Brown, the. His -6.1. There it is right there, boom.’"
• Advanced numbers hold players to a perfectionist standard and can’t account for context—like how defensive breakdowns are often a team issue, not individual.
• The quirks of plus/minus: “Jalen happens to be on the floor when a lot of that stuff is happening, when he’s getting 100% of the impact, but what, 20, 30% of it is his fault.” (Karalis, 33:20)

5. The Debate of ‘Lore’ vs. ‘Analytics’ MVP

[36:02–39:31]

• The hosts jokingly declare Brown the "Lore MVP": “Jalen is the lore MVP of the season. You can keep your analytics MVP…Jalen Brown is the lore MVP, by far.” (Westerholm, 37:20)
• The narrative value: “The Celtics were supposed to be a play-in team, maybe not even a play-in team…now they’re the second seed…He’s got the narrative.” (Karalis, 38:03)
• Advanced metrics might be used as a "tiebreaker," but John asserts: “You can't rely on any one stat. When you're talking about MVP, you got to take the whole thing in totality.” (Karalis, 39:28)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Analytics can ruin lore a lot.” (Karalis, 09:24)
• “He’s clearly the best player [on the Celtics] and very clearly should be a legitimate MVP candidate.” (Karalis, 19:54)
• “Don’t punish Jalen for the bench being good.” (Westerholm, 39:31)
• The "death of lore" tangent: “Problem with these camera phones is they kill off the lore. There’s no more anymore.” (Westerholm, 09:03)
• On confirmation bias in analytics debates: “It is a confirmation bias…they just got to find the number that tells them they’re right.” (Karalis, 19:54)
• Lore vs analytics, summing up the Celtics’ MVP race in 2026: “You can have your analytics MVP... Jalen Brown is the lore MVP.” (Westerholm, 37:20)

Important Timestamps

• 02:53: Main episode start — Jaylen Brown’s MVP candidacy and analytics skepticism
• 09:24: Segue from “lore” into how analytics can spoil “stories”
• 15:51: Tom’s clear explanation of on/off stats and common misreadings
• 22:18–29:12: The defensive question: why do Brown's numbers fail to match his reputation?
• 33:48: How lineups and context can warp individual advanced stats
• 36:02: The “Lore MVP” debate and the case for narrative
• 39:31: Final word — Don’t over-index on advanced stats, appreciate the full picture

Episode Tone

The conversation is lively, good-naturedly skeptical of overly technical analysis, and brimming with Celtics pride (“Jalen Brown is the Lore MVP”). The hosts blend stats nerdery with story-rich commentary, appealing both to analytics heads and fans who value narrative over numbers.

For Celtics fans and NBA observers, this episode offers a clear, nuanced look at the shortcomings of advanced stats—especially on-off data—when evaluating MVP candidates like Jaylen Brown. Karalis and Westerholm champion context, narrative, and real impact over raw spreadsheet numbers, making a passionate plea for considering the bigger picture in basketball analysis.