Locked On Celtics Podcast Summary

Episode: "TRADE SEASON OPENS: Boston Celtics BUYERS or SELLERS? C's BEST approach"

Date: December 15, 2025
Host: John Karalis (Boston Sports Journal)
Guest: Keith Smith (Spotrac/Salary Cap expert)

Episode Overview

With the NBA's unofficial "trade season" underway on December 15, host John Karalis welcomes salary cap guru Keith Smith to break down what options the Boston Celtics have as the market opens. The duo runs through whether the Celtics should be buyers, sellers, or stand pat; realistic trade packages; major assets and exceptions; and how new NBA economic rules affect Boston’s potential moves. Throughout, the focus is on long-term sustainability over short-term splashes, maximizing flexibility, and not mortgaging the future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What is "Trade Season" and Why Now?

• December 15 is when most players signed in the summer can officially be traded, "opening up about 82 new possible trade chips." (03:22)
• Most blockbuster moves still happen closer to the February 5th trade deadline, but groundwork starts now. Both hosts emphasize this as a period of increasing rumors and shifting possibilities.

2. State of the Celtics: Buy, Sell, or Stand Pat?

• Early season revealed two "mini-seasons" for Boston: a rocky start and then a strong win streak, putting the team in cautious “buyer” mode, but not a full all-in push:
  • Smith: “I think you’re a cautious buyer... not making the all-in trade... but there’s miles of players between Giannis and helpful contributors.” (05:19)
  • Focus: Add someone who fits now and helps in coming seasons (Derrick White model), not a short-term rental.

3. The Simons Contract and Potential Trades

• Anthony Simons' $27.7 million contract is a major tool for Boston—he’s valuable but expendable.
• Potential Move: Trade Simons in a “step-down” deal to shed salary and maybe gain a contributing rotation player:
  • Popular trade scenario: Simons to Nets for Terance Mann, which both trims payroll and lands Boston a serviceable wing with team control. Mann’s contract is attractive for flexibility. (10:01)
  • Smith: “The nice thing about having our own trade machine at Spotrac, we see straight-up Simons for Mann is very popular, getting Boston out of the tax, and useful for both sides.” (10:01)

4. Boston's Financial Picture: Tax, Aprons, and Exceptions

• Celtics are $12.1M over the luxury tax, $4M over the first apron, but not under pressure to slash payroll—ownership will tolerate some tax as long as the team is competitive. (08:25–09:53)
• Key tools:
  • All own picks except a swap with Spurs in 2029 (top-1 protected).
  • Large Porzingis exception and other trade exceptions allow more creative moves.
  • Not likely to get under the tax unless a no-brainer move appears.

5. What Are Boston's Assets?

• Tradable players: Simons, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and others.
• Picks: Celtics have two tradable firsts: 2026/2027 and 2030/2031. (20:49)
• Not enough “mid-range” contracts to package for mid-tier deals unless combining several minimums or small salaries—limits some one-for-one flexibility.

6. Realistic Trade Scenarios

• One-for-one trades are unlikely unless minor, e.g., depth swaps.
  • Smith: “A straight one-for-one trade is extremely unlikely.” (22:46)
• More plausible: Celtics as a third/fourth team in a superstar trade, providing matching salary or facilitating with their exceptions to pick up valuable role players others must shed.
  • Karalis: “I think three or four-team deals almost have to be the norm these days with the new rules.” (30:28)

7. Focus on Long-Term Additions, Not Rentals

• Both hosts are adamant: ANY trade has to bring in a player who fits beyond this year.
  • Smith: “I don’t want this to be an addition just for the rest of this year. It’s gotta be somebody who fits as the team moves forward and grows.” (07:31)
• Building for “Tatum, Brown, White, Pritchard, and whatever else they add” for future seasons.

8. The Jayson Tatum Factor

• Tatum’s expected late-season return is not driving Boston’s approach.
  • Karalis: “If it becomes more than a preseason for Tatum, that’s great, but I’m not focused on... rocketing up the standings because of his return.” (19:33)
  • Smith: “You get Tatum back, whatever you get from him is just a bonus for the rest of this year. Don’t rush him, and don’t change your plans based on that.” (27:19)

9. Potential Dream Targets and the Market

• Ivica Zubac (Clippers) mentioned as a “dream” trade target if LA rebuilds, possibly worth a first and swap if available. (35:35)
  • Smith: “That’s the kind of player I’d be targeting.”
• Minor center targets (e.g., Nick Vucevic) “don’t move the needle much more than internal options like Neemias Queta.”
• Jordan Walsh graduated from “throw-in” status to a real prospect—Boston would likely value him too highly to use as simple filler. (38:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It almost feels like we’ve had two Celtics seasons in the first third… at first we thought, okay, they’re not going to be very good... then the long win streak… I think what you can do if you’re the Celtics is be a cautious buyer.”
  —Keith Smith (05:19)

• "You're not making the all-in trade, right? There's no Giannis trade to be made for the Celtics. It's just not happening. We can just leave it there, just put that one away."
  —Keith Smith (05:36)

• "A one-for-one trade is extremely unlikely... unless it's something small like swapping minimums"
  —Keith Smith (22:46)

• "If you looked at my fake trades, you'd think, 'Why do so many of these fail initially?'"
  —Keith Smith, joking about trade machines (10:01)

• "I don’t think you make any decisions on, hey, we’re going to have Tatum or not have Tatum this season. That’s why I like the idea of get somebody who can help you, or help you via being a contract, for next season."
  —Keith Smith (28:41)

• "It’s just there is still that uncertainty. I don’t think you can win a team with just two stars, three stars and a bunch of minimums now. You need 100 games of depth to win the NBA title."
  —Keith Smith (34:00)

• "Jordan Walsh... not just a salary throw-in anymore. He's way beyond that with how well he's played this year."
  —Keith Smith (38:34)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 03:22: Why December 15 matters; trade season opens.
• 05:19: Celtics’ identity this year, cautious buyer status.
• 07:54–10:01: Anthony Simons’ contract as a trade piece; popular trade ideas (e.g., straight-up for Terance Mann).
• 17:52–19:33: Overview of Celtics’ trade exceptions, assets, and how the Porzingis exception works.
• 20:49–22:46: Which picks are tradable? Composite assets; why mid-range deals are tricky.
• 22:46–24:22: Why one-for-one deals are unlikely; complexity of packaging contracts.
• 26:38–29:17: The Jayson Tatum timeline and its impact (or lack thereof) on trade urgency.
• 30:18–34:00: Three- and four-team trades as new NBA norm; Celtics as facilitators.
• 35:23–37:01: Dream trade scenarios (Zubac, Vucevic), prioritizing player development and internal depth.
• 38:34: Jordan Walsh’s emergence as untouchable prospect.

Conclusion: The Celtics' Best Trade Season Approach

• Maintain flexibility, don’t force a deal just to shave tax
• Target useful players who fit the “Derrick White model”—helpful now, valuable beyond this year
• Use Simons’ contract/large trade exceptions to grease multi-team deals or absorb surplus value
• Avoid rentals, splashy all-in gambles, or gutting depth for stars
• Keep developing internal prospects (Walsh, Queta) and see what value emerges in February

Final Take

This episode is a must-listen for any Boston fan (or NBA trade nerd) wanting both the strategic “big picture” and nitty-gritty salary cap detail on the Celtics’ path for the 2026 stretch run. Smith and Karalis expertly balance hope, realism, and nuanced cap insight, guiding fans through a tricky trade season with clarity and optimism.