Locked On Celtics – "We EXPLAIN Derrick White's HUGE SLUMP | Is 44 Wins Still Possible?"

Host: John Karalis (Boston Sports Journal)
Guest: Tom Westerholm
Date: October 29, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Locked On Celtics, hosted by John Karalis with guest Tom Westerholm, dives into the Celtics’ recent win over the Pelicans, examines the causes of Derrick White’s early-season struggles, and revisits preseason predictions about the team’s outlook—specifically whether a 44-win season is still feasible. The focus is on actionable, data-informed breakdowns of player roles and team performance, fostering a measured optimism amidst a challenging early schedule.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Celtics’ Recent Win & Early-Season Struggles

Timestamps: 03:10 – 11:01

• Win over Pelicans:
  • The Celtics finally tallied a win, but it was not a clean or revelatory performance.
  • Tom Westerholm quips about how precarious the game felt:

    "Seven [losses] was really not off the table midway through the third quarter... it was teetering." (03:28)

  • Critical moment: Derrick White's defensive play on DeAndre Jordan led to a run that secured the game.
• Perspective:
  • Both hosts discuss whether Boston “took” the game or if the Pelicans failed to exploit the Celtics. Consensus: it was a mixed bag due to the Pelicans’ lack of imposing bigs, and Boston’s three-point shooting finally breaking through:

    "When this team makes threes, they're going to be dangerous." – Tom Westerholm (05:19)

  • Jalen Brown’s perspective post-game is highlighted:

    "I hope they gave us more than a week to figure this out." – Summarized by John Karalis (06:30)

  • Importance of Jalen Brown getting rest during the game (due to foul trouble) and the vulnerability this exposes in Celtics’ roster.

2. Derrick White's Slump: Explaining the Numbers

Timestamps: 11:05 – 23:46

• The Problem:
  • Derrick White’s shooting splits have plummeted: 32.9% FG, 25% from three, on a career-high 11 attempts per game.
• Shot Profile Shift:
  • John Karalis provides a dramatic statistical breakdown:
    • Increase in pick & roll ball-handler possessions (31.2% vs. 22.8% last year).
    • Decrease in spot-up opportunities (19.5% vs. 34.1% last year).
    • Most important insight:

      "65% of his made shots are unassisted this year, a flip from last season where 68% were assisted." (16:18)

  • White is taking far fewer catch-and-shoot chances and far more self-created (and contested) looks.
• Quality of Looks:
  • Wide-open shots (defender 6+ ft away) have dropped by 12% compared to last season.
  • Tightly contested (2-4 ft) attempts are up 6%.
• Panel Analysis:
  • Westerholm:

    "That's a big...that tells the story, right? That is what happens when you lose Jason Tatum, when you lose Drew Holiday ... your role goes way up as the lead ball handler." (17:35)

  • Both agree White is smart and should adjust, but he’s in a dramatically new role.
  • Karalis urges patience:

    "If you trust Derrick White — which I do — this is something that needs time to shake out... He's getting used to a new role." (20:29)

Notable Quote

• "When the smartest kid in the class is struggling, then you know the subject matter is difficult." – John Karalis (23:27)

3. Looking Ahead: Schedule, Optimism, & 44 Wins

Timestamps: 25:53 – 39:30

• Upcoming Games:
  • The next stretch includes Cleveland, Philadelphia, Houston, and then a softer run (Utah, Washington, Orlando twice).
  • Westerholm and Karalis agree: games against better teams (Cleveland, Philly) will be tough to win. The Celtics tend to beat inferior teams, not better ones.
• Optimism, But Cautious:
  • The four-game soft stretch is pivotal. The hosts agree the Celtics must go at least 3–1 in this run to keep the possibility of 44 wins alive.
  • Both reaffirm preseason predictions:

    "I still feel like they'll finish above .500, wherever that lands. Maybe it's 42, maybe it's 44." – John Karalis (36:30)

  • Signs of progress: If White, Pritchard, Simons settle into roles and rebounding improves, the team can “level up” by midseason.
  • If the Celtics stumble (i.e., go 1–3 or 2–2 in the soft stretch), they may have to adjust expectations to a sub-.500 campaign.

Notable Quotes

• "If you go 3–1 or 4–0 [in the upcoming stretch], then I feel good. If it's 2–2, 1–3 somehow, then...we’re gonna start looking at, okay, below .500 team, because that’s just too much road to make up." – John Karalis (39:01)
• "It's not even mile markers, it's quarter mile markers... You know what kind of pace you're looking at each lap, not each mile." – John Karalis (39:53)

Memorable Moments & Additional Insights

• Humor:
  • Playful banter about DeAndre Jordan’s longevity and athleticism (“Me and DeAndre Jordan, one and the same,” Tom, 04:57), and Derrick White’s struggles as “the smartest kid in the class” (23:27).
• Fan Perspective:
  • Discussion about Tyrese Maxey’s likability vs. Joel Embiid’s reputation among Celtics fans:

    "Maxey’s hard to dislike on the level that Joel Embiid is." – Tom Westerholm (28:23)

• Team Assessment:
  • Both hosts stress not to overreact to early losses, reminding listeners that every rotation player is in an unfamiliar role this year.

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Time | Segment | |---------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:10 | Pelicans win recap, are Celtics turning the corner? | | 11:05 | Teasing Derrick White’s slump discussion | | 15:14 | Statistical deep dive: Why White is struggling (shot analysis) | | 23:27 | Analogy: “Smartest kid in the class” on White’s challenge | | 25:53 | Looking at the schedule ahead: Cleveland, Philly, Houston, etc. | | 33:25 | Is 44 wins still possible? Team outlook revisited | | 39:01 | The next four games as a season barometer | | 39:53 | Quarter mile markers: How to judge this Celtics team |

Conclusion

The Celtics’ early-season woes, particularly Derrick White’s shooting slump, are rooted mostly in vastly different offensive responsibilities and a lack of high-quality, catch-and-shoot opportunities. Both Karalis and Westerholm argue for optimism, predicting that with time and consistency against weaker teams, Boston can stabilize their season and potentially reach the mid-40s in wins. However, upcoming games—especially against lesser opponents—will be pivotal in determining whether that optimism holds weight.

Essential Quote:

"He's getting used to a new role. It's just going to take some time." – John Karalis (20:29)