
The Dallas Cowboys gear up for the busiest free agency period in decades—can the right moves spark a Super Bowl push? Marcus Mosher and Landon McCool break down essential strategies for winning the NFL free agency market, highlighting why avoiding mistakes with aging stars, injury-prone players, and overhyped contract-year breakouts is critical for building a contender.
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Marcus Mosher
Foreign.
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Marcus Mosher
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Marcus Mosher
Free agency officially kicks off today. We'll tell you how the Cowboys can win this period next. You are Locked On Cowboys, your daily Dallas Cowboys podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast network. Your team every day. Welcome back to the Locked On Cowboys Podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast network. Your team every day. We'd like to thank you for making us the number one sports podcast network. I am your host Marcus Mosher. He is Landon McCool and other on today's show, we're talking about free agency. The Cowboys are expected to be busier in free agency than at any point in my lifetime. We'll see if that actually becomes the case or not. But later, and I jotted out some rules on how teams generally win in free agency because this is a big shift over the last five or so years. The old adage used to be that, you know, good teams don't dabble in free agency and you're overpaying for good players, but I think in recent years you kind of have to do well in free agency in order to win. And we see a team like Seattle last year not only go out and get, you know, their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold, they bring in someone like Cooper cup to be their number two receiver. They sign DeMarcus Lawrence, and those moves help propel them to a Super bowl win. It feels like it's more important ever than ever to, to win in free agency.
Landon McCool
Yeah, I mean, I, I think that the, the advantage here is that the teams that are able to safely dabble into free agency and get, you know, low cost, medium to high impact players who, you know, can transform their team around the, the players that they acquire through the draft. I think it's, it's, it's just a, another tool in the belt. Right. Like, I think there has been a stigma around free agency, which I think has, has been earned to a large degree, because I think it's easy to go into the free agent spending period or be a team that plans to build their team exclusively through free agency and then spend a whole bunch of money not getting the results you want. But I think, you know, if you're able to follow kind of some basic guidelines and protect yourself a little bit, there are certainly bargains to be had. And it's a, it's a good way to kind of build your team, maybe especially around the edges and in the middle class of your team, you know, without having to spend precious draft resources and, and, and, you know, take the risk of maybe getting someone that isn't an NFL player. Right, right. Yeah, you can get with free agency.
Marcus Mosher
So I came up with some rules and I want you to give me your thoughts on these rules of rules, how to win in free agency. Step one, don't pay bad players thinking that they're suddenly going to become good players. I know that is not like the most profound statement in the world, but how many times have the Cowboys been burned by this, where we think our coaching is suddenly going to turn this bad player into a great player? I mean, the perfect example. And I know this wasn't technically free agency, but Kenneth Murray was last year. Right. They traded a late round pick for Kenneth Murray. They thought, hey, this is a bad player in charge with the Chargers, a bad player with the Titans. Let's bring him into our defense with Matt Everfluous, the linebacker whisperer, and he'll suddenly become a different player. More often than not. That's not the case in the NFL. Players just don't suddenly get good overnight.
Landon McCool
Yeah. I think the problem here is the expectation problem. Right. And, and specifically paying somebody to be something that they aren't when instead of paying them to allow them the room to break out into being what you want.
Marcus Mosher
Right.
Landon McCool
Because I do think there is, it's an okay principle to, to try to, you know, get somebody in free agency and think that maybe you have a better situation or that you can change the angles on that person's career, but you don't pay for production that that person has never produced. Right. And you don't pay a player like you know, the, the player that you
Marcus Mosher
are hoping market value basically, right?
Landon McCool
Yes, exactly. Like, you know, market value for what that player has done, you know. Yes. Obviously potential comes with an extra cost. But don't pay the production price for potential. Right. Like pay. You'll pay the lower price and if he earns that extra bump, then eventually you can talk about that contract. But the Kenneth Murray deal was that we knew exactly who Kenneth Murray was this entire time and you're still paying him at a level that you know would be a starter plus level and he just hasn't been that player. So. I agree. Like if you're gonna pay for guys that you are projecting to be better, make sure that you are paying them at that rate and not the rate that you're projecting them into.
Marcus Mosher
Yeah. And I. Javante Williams is a good example of the opposite side of this. Right. Dallas paid him, was it three, one year, $3 million last year. That is below average starting running back money. With the idea that he was going to be part of a running back by committee approach. He way out, you know, exceeded that contract. But the Cowboys weren't paying him like he was going to be a 1300 yard rusher because they didn't have that expectation. Right. That's how you get good deals and free agency is by signing guys, I think on the lower end of their contracts or their deals, you know, guys at the lower end of the expectations and having them outperform that. And there are going to be guys every year that you're buying low on because of the talent. I think the problem in the Kenneth Murray case is you weren't really buying low. You were paying him market value and you had to give up a draft pick for the most part. That's a no. No.
Landon McCool
I'll give an example that it doesn't necessarily apply to the Cowboys this year. Right. But Malik Willis feels like a guy that could definitely fall into this category where teams are just desperate for quarterback and they, you know, Malik has shown a couple of flashes and he's probably going to get 30 million plus, I mean more than that on the free agent market just based on potential. So yeah, again, it's okay to go chase potential. Just make sure you're paying appropriately for. For it.
Marcus Mosher
Well, and that leads me into my other, you know, thing we. You don't pay for past production. It's a one of the keys of Free agency. And I think this is something that a lot of football fans have a tendency to do is they look at players that they know or names that they recognize and you'll see a 30 year old, you know, guy that, that their team moved on and you sign him. And I think a good example is last year, if you remember the was a lot of talk about the Cowboys being interested in guys like Cooper Cup, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen. All of those guys were in their 30s. Keenan Allen I think averaged like nine yards of reception this year. I think it's a general good rule of thumb to avoid 30 plus year old players, especially at skill player positions where speed is such an important part of their game. More often than not, those guys just don't pan out.
Landon McCool
Yeah, I mean, because again, like you said, they've had careers that they're looking for that last contract. Right. They may not be up for that last contract, they may not be capable to fulfill the production that's implied with that last contract, but they're still looking for that last deal. And yeah, you're right, it's often going to be names that you're, that you're aware of and names that you know. But don't be fooled by that and thinking that that production that they had last year is going to continue. I mean, I think we, you know, we're kind of trying to balance a fine line here. Right. But what you want ultimately are young players who have produced some whose arrow is pointed up, not older players who you're hoping to get one or two more years out of. Right. Like that's the kind of phrase that you're trying to like avoid in your head is like, well, you know, I'm willing to give him $20 million a year, but, but I'm hoping that he can come back to form these last two years. It is 32 year old.
Marcus Mosher
The perfect example of that is Cooper Cup. We talked about a lot last year with the Cowboys having Junior Adams as their new wide receiver coach, you know, thinking, okay, hey, just you bring in Cooper Cup. He'll be the number two receiver. He can be a, you know, a solid option. And while he was fine with Seattle, Seattle had to trade a third round pick mid season for Rashid Jahid because their offense was too slow.
Landon McCool
Right.
Marcus Mosher
Cup finished the regular season with 593 yards and two touchdowns. And I think you were, a lot of Cowboy fans were thinking, hey, maybe he's going to be healthier now. And it just was never the case. The Cowboys ended up missing out on cup, they traded for George Pickens and that ended up obviously working out for them. And it seems like wide receivers, the position that it happens the most is that everybody's trying to get that one year of Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins or Keenan out. Like we could go through the, like the graveyard of all these receivers, they that change teams in their 30s. Just avoid it and you're going to be happier.
Landon McCool
Yeah, it's not like it's not possible to. I mean, you know, obviously there are hits here. That's why people continue to do it. But it there are so there's five to six many misses for every hit and it's really just not worth the risk.
Marcus Mosher
All right, let's talk about something called the Peter Principle, and if you're not familiar with that is we'll tell you and how it applies to free agency next Foreign this episode is brought to you by Indeed. Workplace Chaos. Deadline stacking up, inbox overflowing and the one person you have to hire is still sitting open when the pressure's on and you need the right hire. This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Indeed Sponsor jobs help you reach the people who actually fit what you're looking for with skills, experience, location. So you're not just hoping that the right candidate suddenly stumbles across your posts. So if you're hiring, spend less time searching and more time interviewing candidates who check all of your boxes with Indeed Sponsored Jobs and listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help give your job the premium status that it deserves@ Indeed.com podcast. Just go to Indeed.com/podcast right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast that is indeed.com podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire. This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs.
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Marcus Mosher
Welcome back to the Locked On Cowboys podcast. Free agency is here and and so are we. Get one month free of the everyday club by using promo code. Free agency no spaces now through March 15th and go ad free and keep this conversation going on Discord Join the club at lockdown cowboys supercast.com all right. L. Let's talk a little bit more about free agency. Are you familiar with the Peter Principle? Have you heard this before?
Landon McCool
Yes, I have. This is the idea that was based on a book, if I'm not mistaken.
Marcus Mosher
Yeah. From 1969. Yeah.
Landon McCool
Yeah. Where they. You get hired up into the point where you. You are incapable of doing work anymore or something like that.
Marcus Mosher
Yeah.
Landon McCool
You're only hired to where you. You have the start to fail, basically.
Marcus Mosher
Yeah, basically. And that this happens a lot in free agency. Right. Where you'll take a role player who was really good in that role, they'll hit free agency, then they'll get paid, and now suddenly they're expected to be something that they've never been before. And I'm not saying that can't work, but you do see this happen a lot where you're overpaying for good players. And I think the guy for me that I could see that happening to this year is like Alec Pierce, the receiver for the Colts, who I really, really like. I think he's a really good player. But you're talking about a receiver who's never had more than 47 receptions in a season. And he's going to be paid and probably by the time that you're listening to this 27 to 30 million dollars a year, you're going to be paying him to be a number one receiver. And I just don't think he's that type of player. If you can avoid doing that in free agency, it's going to be a win because that's honestly, that's the biggest mistake that a lot of these teams make.
Landon McCool
Yeah. Here's, you know, original free agency example of that that also involves the Cowboys, but not on the bad side of it, is Alvin Harper. Right. Remember when Alvin Harper left the Cowboys and he was a clear excellent wide receiver, too. Was a great compliment to. Was great compliment. Michael Irvin ended up going to Tampa, if I'm not mistaken, and just really never had the career that. That, you know, you would expect. And again, it just kind of was maybe one of the first in a long line of those situations where, you know, and again, wide receiver, corner. I think these are all positions where this defensive end, right. Where, you know, you can be kind of a productive player in a role and then you get promoted out of that role above your. Your capability. Right. And I think like any position where you are, you can play part time and still have an effect on the game. Can be affected by this you don't want to just automatically extrapolate out production based on a small data set. It's a risk, I would say, of the rules that we're gonna, you know, kind of go over today. This is the one where I might risk the most in. But it's still extremely dangerous. Right. Because like you shouldn't just assume that just because this guy had four sacks in, you know, what, 275 snaps that he's going to have eight snaps in 525 snaps. Right. So it's just, you know, not understanding what a player is and not assuming that they can do more with the higher role and certainly not paying them so that they can do more without a higher role.
Marcus Mosher
And I think a good example for this last year was Kairo Elam. Again, not technically a free agent, but the Cowboys traded a draft pick for Elam. Elam was really good in Buffalo in 2024 as a number four, number five corner that would come in in spot duty. It was, you know, just a solid backup. But when Dallas, but whenever Buffalo brought him in to be a full time starter, I'm sure everybody remembers the Chiefs game in the playoffs. He was a liability. The Cowboys brought him in because they thought, you know, he's young, he could maybe, you know, revive his career. In Dallas, they make him a full time starter and it goes so poorly that he loses all of his confidence and then they cut him halfway through the season. I think that's what you're trying to avoid here is really promoting these guys up too many levels. I think if you, if you're getting like a defensive lineman who's like the sixth or seventh defensive lineman on a team and you're moving them up to like the third or fourth, that's a little bit different, right? Yeah, but I think when you're going from backup full time starter, that's when things get hairy.
Landon McCool
Yeah, I mean, again, it's, it's usually in situations where people are trying to squint to make free agent situations work when there's not enough supply for what they're looking for. Right. They're like, I need a wide receiver one. Well, there isn't really any wide receiver ones in the market, but maybe this guy can do it. You know, he's kind of done productive at a smaller scale. So you see teams kind of convince themselves that they can get that small sample size extrapolated out over a long season or heavier snap usage. So yeah, again, just a very dangerous situation that you can kind of convince yourself that that this is the same thing as a full time productive starter that they can, you know, scale up. But that is not always the case. Not usually.
Marcus Mosher
Yeah, two more negative ones before we get to positive ones. Because I know it just sounds like I'm telling you all these things not to do in free agency or these teams shouldn't do. There are some things you should do, but this is from the scouting community. Really honestly. Hurt guys tend to stay hurt. And this is, this part sucks about the NFL, but guys that miss a lot of games due to injury are likely going to miss a lot more games due to injury. And this kind of ties into the age stuff. But if you suddenly think a guy is going to get healthy because he's joining your team, it doesn't happen very often. But if you are going to gamble on that guy, make sure it's at a really cheap price. And I think an example of it when it did work is like Molly Cooker signing with the Cowboys. He got really banged up with the Colts. The Cowboys brought him in for nothing and he's been relatively healthy in Dallas. If you're, if you're paying that player market value, I think you get in trouble.
Landon McCool
Yeah. And, and I think that's, you know, it's sort of like the last one where don't assume something that we haven't seen. Right. He's never been healthy. And I also think with the injury thing, there's obviously a percentage of guys that have like, you know, cascading injuries that kind of bleed into each other like over compensating for this causes this injury. That is certainly a thing. But I also think there's something to the idea that guys who play all the time find a way to fight for through injuries to get back on the field. And it's like a mentality thing a little bit. So I, I think or they know
Marcus Mosher
how to protect their body. Like they know how to play football. They can protect themselves a little bit.
Landon McCool
It's a lot of subtle things that are hard to kind of quantify individually. But yes, like they're either really good at just avoiding direct contact or protecting themselves or taking care of their bodies or just being extremely tough and not, you know, and not being held down by nagging injury. So I do think there is something to the idea that hurt guys get stay hurt. I don't think you should completely write players off. No, I just think you should put accounting into your budget based on that.
Marcus Mosher
The last one here I wanted to mention is that beware of the contract year breakout and this is, this is the hardest one, honestly, for me, because you could, in an alternate reality, you could say these guys are ascending. They're just playing their best football now. Path pay them while they're still improving. Belated. How many times have we watched, you know, free agent guys hit the market after one big season? They get paid and they're never able to replicate that season right before they got into free agency. I mean, listen, I think it's a little bit ironic that I'm saying it about George Pickens now. Right. I mean, very similar. I think you could talk yourself into that situation being way different in Dallas than it was in Pittsburgh. But generally paying guys coming off a contract or, you know, the biggest year of their career, is it wise?
Landon McCool
I wouldn't necessarily put Pickens in that. It's a little different.
Marcus Mosher
So yeah, just ignore that. Yeah.
Landon McCool
Because he has produced before. It's been other stuff that has caused issues. But yes, 100. Like if you want to say Laurent Robinson or you wanted to say I'm like perfect example. Honestly, I hate to use wide receivers of every single one of these. It feels like. But you know, listen, wide receiver is a spot. You probably need to be very careful in free agency. Maybe that's another rule we need to have.
Marcus Mosher
Well, yes, I'll give you another one from last year. Okay.
Landon McCool
Yeah.
Marcus Mosher
Chauncey Golston had a career year in 2024 with cowboys. Right. He got to play more snaps. The Giants paid him quite a bit of money in free agency. Thinking, okay, hey, now he's starting to play more. He was a healthy scratch for half the season for the Giants because they were. He was never, never, never able to replicate that play. It happens more often than you think.
Landon McCool
He actually could qualify for one of the other ones too because he was, had a very limited use case with the Cowboys and they were trying and his role and it didn't work very well. Yeah, honestly, this is the principle that is probably the most commonly associated with free agency. Right. Because it is probably the most common blunder or whatever you want to call this, that happens where and, and, and honestly, I, I don't even want to call it a blunder because it's extremely difficult to parse, especially when you're talking about guys that are having their second contracts which extremely difficult to parse whether a fourth year player is breaking out or just having a great year because of a contract. So.
Marcus Mosher
Well, you know what's funny is like, let's use Sam Darnold. We use at the top of the show he's coming off the best year of his career, and you would think, okay, this is a perfect guy to avoid. But what's funny about Darnold is because he had a really poor playoff game, his market ended up being way lower than I think anybody anticipated. So he didn't get this big bump coming off of a career year where he was going to make 40 or 50 million dollars a year. I think he made 33 million, which made him like the 18th highest paid quarterback, ended up winning a Super Bowl. So I agree with you. Like, it's really, really hard to separate the guys that are ascending versus the guys that had that one year bump.
Landon McCool
And, and guys like Sam Darnold are always going to be the. The biggest rocks in our craw because we're going to be using him as an example for 20 years as well. I mean, you could also get Sam Darnold, right, because, like, like you said at that point, when he lost that game, I remember thinking, oh, he lost his shot to really make big money at this point. But, you know, now look at him, you know, hoisting the Lombardi trophy a year later. So sometimes these things work out, and they work out in ways you can't expect, but that doesn't mean you bet on that necessarily.
Marcus Mosher
All right, so that's all the negative ways that you could lose in free agency. Or what are the ways that you can win? We'll get to that next. This episode is brought to you by Game Time. We live in a world where you can stream anything, order food in minutes, and carry supercomputers in our pockets. And yet, somehow, buying tickets to a live game still feels complicated. Hidden fees, jumping prices, endless steps. There's got to be a better way. And. And there is. And it's why I use the Game Time app. It gives the advantage back to the fans, and it makes getting tickets simple, whether it's NFL games, concerts, comedy events, whatever you're into. I just jumped on the app to check out tickets for an upcoming game, and honestly, it took me two minutes to find the exact seats that I wanted. You can spot zone deals where you pick a section in game time will pick the seats for extra savings. But my favorite part is that you see the price with all. All of the fees included. So there's no surprise fees at checkout. So take the guesswork out of buying tickets. Download the Game Time app, create an account and use promo code locked on for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again. Create an account. Redeem promo code LockedOn for $20 off and download game time today.
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Marcus Mosher
Welcome back to the Lockdown Cowboys podcast. We'd like to thank you for making us your first listen every single day. All right, Leah, now that we got all the negatives out of the way, how do you win in free agency? Because it's, it's a very important key to building a successful team and roster. What are some ways that you can build through free agency the correct way?
Landon McCool
Well, I think, you know, following all kind of following what we talked about is obviously the way to avoid, you know, know, making a mistake. Right. I, I think, you know, the, the will McClay has just kind of shown a, a good pathway for operating in the mid to low, you know, market of free agency and, and, and trying to follow the, the, the, a principle that can kind of help hopefully get opportunities for like a lot of second chance players. Right. So you'll see him buy low on, on a first round pick a lot. Like that's a thing that you see them try a lot of. I, I, I think the key is the price point that you're entering into the market at. Right. Because it's easy. It's, it's, it can be hard or easy to kind of place players into positions and, and, and try to figure out exactly how that's going to work for them, you know, because obviously it's not just the playbook, it's the environment, it's the teammates. It's, it's all, it's the coaching. It's all of it. So I, I think buying low into those situations just kind of insulate yourself with risk. You know, I think that really helps. I also think that this is something that the Cowboys should be hopefully taking advantage of this year is kind of buying what you know, right. Like having an opportunity to get somebody who goes into a system that you've seen him play in or playing with the coach that you has familiar with, familiar familiarity with. I think that that just eases the opportunity and eases the chances that something that can go wrong or there's a bad fit that. That level of knowledge about a player really can kind of just help smooth the transition onto a team. So if you have an opportunity where you can get a guy who is a good fit at a price you like, and he's someone that you have familiarity with, I think that that can also be a big advantage because it just kind of helps avoid a lot of the pitfalls that, you know, unknowns can. Can kind of have.
Marcus Mosher
Let's use Sam Darnold again. In 2023, he was the backup quarterback for the 49ers. His offensive coordinator there was Clint Kubiak, who ended up. He might have been the quarterback coach, but they ended up joining together in Seattle two years later. There's a lot of familiarity there. He doesn't have to change the scheme for Darnold. Again, you don't want to only sign guys that you know or you're coached before, but that does take away a lot of the risk here.
Landon McCool
Right.
Marcus Mosher
If you know how a guy fits a scheme, that does really help when it comes to buying these players in free agency. Yeah.
Landon McCool
And honestly, you can go to the Cowboys linebacker situation last year, right? Like, Jack Sanborn wasn't great last year, but he was paid appropriately and cost anything.
Marcus Mosher
Didn't cost him anything.
Landon McCool
And the fact that you got almost as good a quality play from him as the guy that you paid seven and a half million dollars or whatever, $8 million for and didn't have any kind of knowledge on except for maybe you like this tape coming out. Yeah, I think it shows you a little bit, like, who you knew and who you didn't know. And then, you know, the Cowboys coaches and scouting staff, I guess, were probably surprised, I guess I would assume, based on the fact that they paid him about the way Kenneth Murray played. But. But I think, you know, anybody that had familiarity with them probably wouldn't have been surprised.
Marcus Mosher
One more quick thing for me, quality over quantity, right? You can. You can fill out the bottom of your roster in the draft after free agency or after the draft in free agency. But what you should be doing is trying to find two or three players that fit your scheme that you feel like are buying low, that can outproduce the contract that you give them. And the Cowboys have got in trouble before when they just spend a bunch of, you know, one year, four and a half, one year, $5 million deals. You'd be better off to put all those deals together and get one good starter rather than three very mediocre players.
Landon McCool
Yeah, agreed. I mean, I think we've seen them do the other side and it's been kind of hit and miss. I I think you should be filling out the lower and middle class of your of your roster with lower draft picks, right the upper end with free agent hits and obviously your your first and second round picks.
Marcus Mosher
That is it for today's show. We'd like to thank you for making Lockdown Cowboys your first listen every single day. If you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you. Get locked on Cowboys ad free members only, discord access and so much more. Head over to LockedOn cowboys.supercast.com to join the club. And for those of you on video we can send you the first ever 24.7national NBA YouTube channel and on audio, make your second listen the lockdown NFL Draft podcast. Follow Landon on Twitter @mccoolbcb. I'm @Marcus Underscore Mosher and we'll see you right back here tomorrow.
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Marcus Mosher
Arby's. We have the meats at participating Arby's
Landon McCool
for a limited time.
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Episode Title: BUY LOW, WIN BIG: Why the Cowboys Should Target Value and IGNORE Aging Stars in NFL Free Agency
Date: March 9, 2026
Hosts: Marcus Mosher & Landon McCool
This episode dives deep into strategic approaches to NFL free agency, centering on how the Dallas Cowboys—and teams in general—can maximize roster improvement by targeting undervalued players rather than overpaying for aging stars or falling for contract-year mirages. Hosts Marcus Mosher and Landon McCool discuss best practices, pitfalls, and lessons from recent seasons, all with a sharp Cowboys focus.
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(19:13)
(24:31 onward)
The hosts argue that success in free agency is about discipline—not chasing names, not overpaying for “what might be,” and not falling for the allure of past stardom or one-year wonders. Instead, smart teams like the Cowboys should prioritize value, fit, and risk mitigation, aiming for young/ascending talent and maximizing known quantities in familiar schemes. As always, the “buy low, win big” principle reigns supreme.
Listen on: Locked On Cowboys - Daily Podcast
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