Podcast Summary: LSE Public Lectures and Events – "A Picture of Migration"

Host: LSE Film and Audio Team
Speaker: Professor Alan Manning (introduced by Ronnie)
Date: February 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This lecture, the second in a three-part series by Professor Alan Manning, focuses on the economic and social impacts of migration on destination countries, particularly the UK. The talk moves beyond polarized debates to examine in detail what robust research reveals about migration’s effects on demography, the economy, public services, communities, and more, using evidence from various high-income countries.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Complexity of Immigration Impacts

• Policy and Politics Connection
  Immigration is a politically charged, often polarized topic where nuanced analysis is frequently lacking. Policymakers must balance economic realities with public sentiment, which is shaped by sentiment and sometimes misrepresentation in public discourse. (05:28)

• Who is Affected and How:

  • Impacts on locals matter most for political viability since locals are voters.
  • The effects of immigration can differ greatly depending on migrant types and the characteristics of the destination country.

“But how many people should we say yes to and what types of people should we prioritize? Who should we say yes to? Who should we say no to? To answer those questions, we really need information on what the impacts of migration are on people's lives.”
— Alan Manning [05:33]

Demography

• Population Growth

  • Higher immigration leads to faster population growth, a larger future population, and a higher migrant share of the population.
  • The UK's population would decline without immigration.
  • No “upper limit” exists for population, but too-rapid growth prompts challenges.

• Aging and Dependency Ratios

  • Migration’s effect on aging populations is often overstated. While migrants tend to be young, they also age; thus, migration only modestly impacts aging long-term.
  • The share of dependent children rises with higher migration because migrants typically arrive in childbearing years.

“Countries don’t get full...Surrey gives over more land to golf courses than to houses.”
— Alan Manning [09:42]

Economic Effects

• GDP and Productivity

  • Immigration increases total GDP largely by raising population, not necessarily GDP per capita.
  • The metric that matters is GDP per capita—the average standard of living.

• Employment Rates

  • Whether migrants work more or less than locals depends on context:
    • In the US, migrants are slightly more likely to be employed than locals (men more, women less).
    • In the UK, employment rates are similar between migrants and locals.
    • In countries like the Netherlands or Sweden, migrants are much less likely to be employed.

“The impact of migration on employment rates is almost certainly going to depend on who the migrants are.”
— Alan Manning [23:47]

• Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship
  • Little evidence that migrants are significantly more (or less) entrepreneurial or innovative than locals after adjusting for skills and demographic factors.
  • Most migrant business owners are solo self-employed, similar to locals.

“Migrants and locals look very similar when you look at entrepreneurship, although there are papers and claims out there that they’re very different. But I don’t think that actually is the case.”
— Alan Manning [37:09]

• Population Growth Costs
  • High population growth requires substantial investment in capital (housing, infrastructure); otherwise, living standards can stagnate.

“If you increase your population by 1%, you’ve got to spend 3% of your total resources equipping those new residents with all the capital, public and private, to keep to just sort of stand still...”
— Alan Manning [41:39]

Labour Market Effects

• Myths About Jobs and Unemployment
  • Both anti-migration claims (“immigrants cause unemployment”) and pro-migration claims (“we need migrants to fill shortages”) are largely wrong.
  • Immigration expands both labor supply and demand, so there’s little effect on natives’ employment or wages in practice.

“Migration isn’t the cause of unemployment, but it also doesn’t solve labor shortages. Oddly, both tribes are wrong for exactly the same reason.”
— Alan Manning [47:00]

• Impact on Wages
  • Some studies show minor wage effects (up or down), largely depending on specific skills or sectors.
  • Larger effects are possible in cases like domestic help in Dubai, where laws allow for different labor standards.

Prices, Profits, and Public Finances

• Prices

  • Migration can reduce the cost of low-skilled personal services but tends to increase housing costs if housing supply is restricted.
  • Policymakers should focus on impacts to incomes and prices, not on which “identity group” fills a particular job.

• Profits

  • There’s limited academic research on migration's impact on business profits, even though businesses actively lobby for more free immigration.

• Public Finances

  • Migration’s fiscal effect depends on who the migrants are (their earnings, employment, health, benefit eligibility).
  • Short-term gains (as migrants aren’t initially eligible for benefits) can mask long-term costs.
  • UK policy has at times used migration as “disguised borrowing”—short-term financial gains offset by future fiscal burdens.

Public Services and Community

• Contributions to Public Services

  • Migrants are over-represented in healthcare but under-represented in teaching and other public sector jobs.
  • Thus, migration eases strain in some areas but increases it in others.

• Community Impacts

  • Old anxieties about cultural change and integration are rehashed in modern times (e.g., Benjamin Franklin’s worries about German immigrants).
  • Today’s debates often center on Muslim migration:
    • Muslims in the UK are more socially conservative, but the majority agree with key social norms (e.g., LGBT rights).
    • Second-generation migrants tend to assimilate further.
    • Emphasizing alarmism breeds further division and strengthens extremists; complacency is not the answer either.

“Being alarmist about this risks creating what you most fear, but on the other side, there are risks from complacency as well.”
— Alan Manning [54:11]

Crime

• Statistical Realities
  • Data on migration and crime is often cherry-picked or poor.
  • In the US, migrants are less likely to commit crime than locals; in Europe, young, disadvantaged migrants may be over-represented among offenders.
  • The composition of migrant flows matters (e.g., skilled nurses are low-crime, marginalized youth at higher risk).
  • Downplaying or ignoring legitimate concerns about crime can backfire and empower political extremes.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“Both the benefits and costs of migration are often not as big as you might have heard. That’s true for economics, that’s true for culture.”
— Alan Manning [57:44]

“When economists are thinking about the impacts of migration on living standards, they focus on the effect on people’s incomes and the effects on people’s prices...When you should be focusing on the effects on incomes and prices...”
— Alan Manning [48:48]

“Paying too much attention to the identity of the individuals [who fill jobs] is a mistake.”
— Alan Manning [49:28]

“People tend to think that migration is much more important than it actually has been... They just haven’t changed the labor market as much as we generally think.”
— Alan Manning [52:01]

Important Timestamps

• 00:16 – Introduction by Ronnie: Context for Alan Manning’s expertise and focus of the lecture
• 05:28 – Alan Manning: Framing the complexity of migration impacts
• 09:42 – UK not “full,” logic of population growth
• 23:47 – Employment rates: migrants vs. locals by country
• 37:09 – Migrants and entrepreneurship/innovation: reality vs. myth
• 41:39 – Investment required to support population growth
• 47:00 – Labour market myths: unemployment and shortages
• 48:48–49:28 – The fallacy of focusing on migrants’ identities rather than broader outcomes
• 52:01 – Wage effects of migration: mostly small-scale
• 54:11 – The risks of alarmism and complacency in community impacts
• 57:44 – Summing up: moderation between extremes

Q&A Highlights

Q: What about the capital–output ratio and integration costs? (60:03)
A: Alan means GDP-output, uses a “three-times” ratio as a reasonable average. The higher the capital-output ratio, the more resources are needed for each new entrant—thus, more reason to avoid rapid population growth.

Q: Why are migrant women often less employed? (65:15)
A: Lower female labor participation among migrants often reflects patterns from countries of origin; these gaps fade in successive generations.

Q: What best reduces hostility toward migrants: cheaper housing, higher income, or something else? (65:54) A: While addressing wider issues like housing or income helps, Alan argues migration policy will still be necessary, as public concern isn’t just about material issues.

Q: Brexit and Migration (71:19)
A: Brexit was a “major strategic error.” Subsequent flips between liberal and restrictive policies have undermined public confidence in migration management.

Q: Crime – especially white-collar? (71:38)
A: Crime stats presented were for those in prison; patterns of over- or under-representation by nationality can be found for all types of crime.

Q: Why focus on Western countries? (72:04)
A: Alan’s expertise is in high-income countries; he encourages others to study/authoritatively analyze migration in Asian/African contexts.

Q: Fiscal impact – are old or young dependents more costly? (75:33)
A: Likely true that elderly are more expensive, but all children require state support; effects also depend on demographic specifics.

Q: Should asylum seekers be allowed to work? (76:17)
A: Alan hints he’ll address this in detail when discussing policy in the next lecture, but his analysis suggests there’s no strong reason against it.

Concluding Takeaways

• The real effects of migration—on the economy, society, and public services—are generally moderate and far more nuanced than political rhetoric and simplified media reporting suggest.

• Who migrates matters more than how many, especially for fiscal and labor market impacts.

• Effective migration policy requires balancing diverse, often conflicting interests, resisting polarized narratives in favor of evidence-based, outcome-oriented debate.

• The next lecture in the series will focus on translating this evidence into practical migration policy.

For deeper dives, Alan recommends his recent book, “Why Immigration Policy is Hard and How to Make It Better.”