Podcast Summary: "Beyond Copenhagen"

Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Date: March 16, 2010
Speaker: Professor Lord Nicholas Stern
Host: LSE Film and Audio Team (Stuart Corbridge, Head of Development Studies Institute)
Episode Focus: Analysis of the aftermath of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, the interplay of climate change and poverty, policy challenges, risk management, and the way forward for international climate action.

Episode Overview

In this pivotal episode, Professor Lord Nicholas Stern delivers a comprehensive lecture on the implications and outcomes of the December 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference. Framing climate change as one of the two defining challenges of the 21st century—alongside global poverty—Stern elucidates the scientific, economic, and political contexts surrounding climate negotiations. He underlines the urgent need for ambitious international cooperation, discusses the political and economic roadblocks, and makes the case for optimism about technological and policy solutions—if the world acts with sufficient urgency.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Interlinked Challenges: Climate Change and Poverty

Timestamp: 05:15–09:30

• Central Argument: The need to tackle climate change and global poverty simultaneously.
• “If we don't manage climate change, the environment will become so destructive that all the advances ... on development would be undermined and reversed ... On the other hand, if in trying to manage climate change, we appear to put obstacles in the path of development... then we will not put together the coalition … fundamental to managing climate change.” (07:08–07:52)

2. Scientific Foundation and Scale of the Risk

Timestamp: 09:30–22:10

• Greenhouse gases accumulate due to human activity; this is grounded in basic physics.
• “You may not like the rules of thermodynamics, or you may not like the laws of gravitation, but because you dislike the laws of gravitation doesn't mean you can levitate.” (13:24)
• Explains the science in lay terms, connecting emissions and atmospheric concentrations to the risk of dangerous climate change.
• Massive Risks: Without action, end-of-century temperatures could rise by 4–5°C, “levels unseen for 30 million years… imagine Sahara expanded, southern Europe a desert, major river systems disrupted. You have to regard … a very big risk of hundreds of millions of people moving.” (15:45–18:33)
• Risk management is central: Uncertainty exists at every step—emissions, carbon cycles, sensitivity, impacts—but the risks are immense and global.

3. The 2°C Target and Pathways

Timestamp: 22:10–28:45

• Powerful scientific consensus supports keeping warming below 2°C to avoid triggering dangerous feedbacks (e.g., permafrost melting, Amazon dieback).
• Outlines necessary global emissions reductions, emphasizing a rapid fall from about 47 billion tons/year toward sub–20 billion by 2050.
• “Given that the 7 billion people now is likely to grow to 9 billion by 2050 ... that means around 2 tons per capita in 2050. We are in Europe, 10, 11, 12 tons per capita now. United States, Australia, Canada, well over 20 tons...” (27:10–27:44)
• Highlights historical responsibility and inequity: 60%+ of current concentrations are from developed countries; the poorest are hit hardest.

4. The Opportunity: Dynamic Low-Carbon Growth

Timestamp: 28:45–33:30

• Deep transformation required—on the scale of the industrial revolutions.
• “If only 10 or 15% of the ideas that are out there now are sane and 80 to 85% are insane, we would still have the kind of technological progress that would generate the kind of changes I'm talking about.” (32:08)
• Stresses positive potentials: low-carbon economy can be cleaner, safer, more secure, and “not simply about the big risk ... but also seeing the attractiveness and feasibility of the different ways of doing things.” (33:08)

5. Copenhagen: Achievements and Disappointments

Timestamp: 33:30–42:00

• Conference was “chaotic … disappointing,” but significant:
  • For the first time, many nations (including US and China) submitted specific emissions reduction targets.
  • Over 100 world leaders attended.
  • Resulting Accord set 2°C as target, $100 billion/year finance from rich to poor by 2020, and progress on deforestation.
• “It gave us a basic platform for moving forward ... This isn’t some abstract panel. ... This is serious work that is going on.” (39:43–40:34)
• Two annexes captured both rich and poor countries’ intentions; over 80% of global emissions now covered by plans.

6. The Numbers—Are We on Track?

Timestamp: 40:34–47:00

• Current commitments may see emissions in 2020 at 48–49bn tons—better than “business as usual” (~56bn), but still off-track for 2°C goal (needs ~44bn).
• “Current articulations of ambitions take us 2/3 of the way in 2020 from business as usual to where we need to be.” (41:28)
• Specific examples: China’s growth and emissions scenario; US targets and the need to improve ambition to meet the required global trajectory.

7. Collaboration, Delivery, and Policy Instruments

Timestamp: 47:00–55:00

• Importance of collaborative, not top-down, international approach: “Had we approached … in a more collaborative spirit, listening better to each other ... we could have done much better at Copenhagen.” (47:44–48:10)
• Policy levers: Carbon taxes, permit auctioning, international taxes, financial transaction taxes, technology funds.
• Emphasis on transparency, trust, and monitoring/reporting/verification: “What we need is transparency… That’s the kind of thing which is the bread and butter of life in academic institutions.” (50:15)
• Social scientists and hard analysis crucial for risk management and equitable policy.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “Ignoring these kinds of basic principles of the greenhouse effect will lead us into deep, deep trouble.” (13:18)
• “The transition to low-carbon growth should be more dynamic than … the steam engine, railways, electricity, information technology…” (31:20)
• “Geoengineering is something we should study … but would we be wise to stake the future of the planet on the results of that kind of research? … That would seem to me to be very poor risk management.” (45:55)

Q&A Highlights

Q: How to involve individuals and communities—top-down vs. behavioral change? [42:23–44:43]

• Stern: Communication is vital; scientists and policymakers must improve how they relate issues and risks to the broader public and media. Social change must occur at multiple levels with both “stick” (taxes) and “carrot” (incentives, positive engagement).

Q: Should we measure emissions by production or by consumption? [44:43–46:20]

• “We need to look at both … The international division of labour has changed radically … we’re jointly responsible … if we’re thinking about allocations of responsibility, we have to bring in some element of the sharing of responsibility…” (44:53)

Q: Policy tools for deforestation and investment post-2012? [44:43–46:36]

• Emphasizes the linkage to development, intensification outside forests, and governance, so that “it has to be more attractive to keep the trees standing to all those involved.” (45:15)

Q: Should geoengineering be pursued? [44:43–47:00]

• “Freakonomics is cute stuff and makes nice Christmas presents, but we're talking about serious risk management here, not throwaway lines ... Let’s research on them, but let’s not flip over and pretend that there’s a magic solution there—that’s irresponsible.” (45:55)

Q: Impact of Copenhagen outcome on US legislation? [54:13–55:01]

• Stern lays out targets, the role of US Congress, the seriousness of the Obama administration, and potential for “Plan B” via executive action and state-level leadership if congressional action fails.

Q: The role and failings of the EU at Copenhagen? [55:01–55:49]

• Critiques absence of a clear negotiating mandate and leadership: “Who is President Obama supposed to invite into that room? He couldn’t have invited all the prime ministers and presidents of Europe…” (56:40)

Q: Business risk management in the green economy? [55:01–55:49]

• Investing in carbon-intensive assets is “getting more risky all the time … wise business is looking not only at government policy ... but also what their consumers want.” (57:15)

Q: Intergenerational equity—future generations’ burden? [55:50–58:59]

• “My generation should do better than this … because, you know, debt you can pay off, buildings you can build, but a destroyed environment is very hard to get yourself out from.” (57:30)

Q: Is the UNFCCC the right mechanism, is it fit for purpose? [69:01–71:39]

• Frustrating but essential: “It’s the only UNFCCC we've got ... if we start by trying to rip it up, we will absolutely get nowhere—we will destroy trust.” (72:30)

Q: How to combat skepticism and denialism? [69:51–73:00]

• “I tend to think of rational argument and rational analysis … What’s the alternative? Rational argument surely beats irrational argument, but you’ve got to try to understand where people are coming from and meet the arguments.” (73:46)
• Media bears responsibility for informing, not sensationalizing: “If you find somebody who says the Earth is round and somebody who says the Earth is flat, do you give them equal air time? … If policy depends on this, giving them equal air time is deeply irresponsible.” (81:16)

Impactful Timestamps

• Main theme introduction: 03:18–07:00
• Climate risk explained: 11:00–18:00
• 2°C target & policy challenge: 21:40–29:00
• Technological optimism: 30:00–33:30
• Post-Copenhagen analysis: 33:30–42:00
• Q&A—Public engagement and communication: 42:23–44:43
• On geoengineering: 45:55–47:00
• On intergenerational equity: 55:50–58:59
• On media and denial: 81:16–83:35

Tone and Delivery

Stern maintains an analytic, pragmatic, and deeply engaged tone—blending academic rigor, clarity, and optimism. He repeatedly stresses the magnitude of the risks but also the dynamism and opportunity in transformation. He is candid about failures in international process, respectful but firm with critics, and passionate about the responsibilities of scientists, politicians, businesses, and the media.

Conclusion

Nicholas Stern’s lecture provides a foundational overview of the intertwined crises of climate change and development, critiques the process and partial progress at Copenhagen, and details the path forward: grounded analysis, urgent ambition, equitable progress, and a fundamental role for both hard policy and public engagement. The episode is at once a call to analytic clarity, moral responsibility, and collaborative action.

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